$LUMBER - Pushing back towards all time highs, however the 12Month ROC is still extremely elevated, in the 99th percentile of all time, likely a bit extended and the supply/demand dynamics should start stabilizing as (knock on wood) these second wave of lockdowns ease up
Seems like the rise in the price of all commodities, is related to the recent fall in the dollar.
LL broke out of the ascending triangle it has been forming. It has slightly broken out before the technically required 2/3rd's completion of the triangle, so a test of support above the trend still is needed. The next true supply range starts at $30.60 with resistance to testing those levels at the demand range of $28.40.
Inflation is the term that indicates rising prices for goods and services in an economy, while rapid and out of control rising of prices indicates Hyperinflation . While following the rapid increase in prices of commodities and metals such as Lumber LBS1! and Iron Ore TIO1! , it is accurate to say that global economy is being driven to Hyperinflation due...
I appreciate Michael A. Gayed's thesis here, but the more I look deeper (and longer term) at the data, it's really difficult to draw an real signal. Too many instances where it's not clear which influences which and more likely the market itself (SPX) is influencing lumber and gold independently after the fact of the market move. When you look closely you can see...
Lumber just hit $1,700 after this morning's 3.7 sigma payrolls miss. More money printing equals more inflation; a child understands this concept. But, central banks say they're still trying to get inflation to 2%. I mean, I have no words, folks...
Thanks Janet! Here are lumber futures not overheating.
Just a chart that clearly is hot... What's your thought on inflation and the state of the global economy? CHEERS
Increased demand from perpetual fiat debasement and free money, constricted supply from cargo ships blocking supply routes, Covid lockdowns. This is a recipe for disaster. Inflation is coming folks!
Who knows where this could go to but it appears $1000/1000 is here to stay.
Chicago lumber futures were trading around $950 per thousand board in March, buoyed by robust real estate markets and expectations of a swifter economic rebound fueled by massive government spending and vaccine rollouts. Covid is also causing lumber shortage and shipping problems. LL has a nice bull flag on the weekly, look for break above $26.5.
Model Forecast PT: 475 EOY This ties into my other macroeconomic forecasts... Just a piece of the puzzle. Lumber is the starting thread of 2 of next campaigns. A sneak peak: - Housing market will crash. - Canada is in big, big trouble. GLHF - DPT
I recommended West Fraser Timer (WFT on TSX) some time ago. In November the company announced it would buy another lumber company, Norbord. Nov 19, 2020 | Posted in Corporate News, News West Fraser to Acquire Norbord, Creating a Diversified Global Wood Products Leader – Complementary OSB business expands product and geographic diversity – Greater scale and...
Just listened to a great interview on the Market Huddle podcast feat. Michael A. Gayed from the Lead / Lag report. Great interview! So one of his leading indicators discussed was the LBS/GLD ratio and it actually correlates quite well. Although it predicted the 2018 Christmas crash much more distinctly (with a slight trend break down to the trend line false...
Hello Fellow Traders, Here we are looking at Conifex Timber Inc (CFF) on the TSX. This chart is pretty self explanatory. While prices have been moving down since 2018, we can see that some bullish momentum came in during June this year. On the smaller scale, we can see that a bullish falling wedge pattern has formed. On the larger scale, we can see a that a nice...
Hello, Thanks for viewing. Really nice to see the encouragement and feedback from my last post about the gold/silver ratio. This is to share another of my recently entered, but shortly to grow significantly in size, positions. Boring old Commodities. If you look at a long-term chart, commodities have been on a largely downward slide for over 29 years. I just...
RV makers are in short supply of the lumber they need. Prices have gone way up. Prices may stall for awhile but remain higher than last year. We have a nice "W" base. Potential target given. All projections are always a guess. SO process your way. Have a good week. From Zacks;Boise Cascade Company operates as a wood products manufacturer and building materials...