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Gold’s Pullback: The Dip Everyone’s Afraid to Buy🏆 Gold’s Pullback: The Dip Everyone’s Afraid to Buy 🏆 Gold just gave us the pullback we’ve been waiting for. After an incredible vertical run to $4,400, price has tapped right back into long-term trend support — exactly where past rallies have launched from. Zoom out on the weekly channel and it’s clear: Momentum spikes look scary, but historically they’ve reset just before the next leg up. Volume confirms conviction — this isn’t a fade; it’s a reload. On the 4H chart, buyers are already defending the trendline like clockwork. On the 15M, we’re seeing the first signs of stabilization. 💡 My take: This isn’t the time to panic — it’s the time to position. “Buy fear, sell greed” wasn’t written for stocks; it was written for gold. 🎯 Watch zone: $4,000–$4,050 — that’s my reload range. Next resistance: $4,400 → $4,800 if the structure holds. 📈 I’m buying the dip. Are you brave enough to? #Gold #GC1 #Comex #Futures #BuyTheDip #Macro #Commodities #TrendFollowing #TechnicalAnalysis
COMEX:GC1!Long
by JoshuaDanford
BTCUSD 1W Chart – The Cyclical Geometry of Bitcoin MarketsA close examination of Bitcoin’s long-term structure reveals a striking symmetry between its bull and bear phases. The last two bear markets each lasted 364 days, while the two subsequent bull runs expanded for 1,064 days — a rhythm so precise it reflects the mechanical heartbeat of Bitcoin’s market cycles. Following the 2020 halving, Bitcoin rallied +2,105% over 1,064 days, peaking at $69,000 in 2021. The previous cycle delivered an even greater +18,044% rally, followed by an -84% correction that defined the next macro bottom. The current cycle, post Halving 2024, continues to mirror this same time symmetry with remarkable accuracy. If history holds, the projected top should arrive roughly 1,064 days after the Halving — around late 2026 — with a potential target zone between $143K and $146K, adjusted for performance decay over time. However, if the market breaks this cyclical rhythm, it would mark the first major deviation in Bitcoin’s historical pattern. Such a break would not just disrupt the four-year cycle theory — it could signal the birth of a Supercycle, a multi-year parabolic expansion phase driven by institutional adoption, sovereign participation, and macro liquidity shifts. Until then, all evidence still supports an ongoing reaccumulation phase within the broader bull structure. Bitcoin’s 364-day downtrend → 1,064-day expansion remains one of the cleanest repeating geometries in financial history a rhythm that could either repeat once more or evolve into something far greater. -CryptoPASOK
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by cryptopasok
1
109–114k range: sell the rips while 114k caps__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ The market is digesting the deleveraging flush and stabilizing in a tight range below HTF supply, with an active demand shelf just underneath. The battleground sits at 113.5–114k, the hinge for the next directional leg. Momentum: Range with a bearish tilt 📉 — price capped under 114–118k, buyers defending 109–110k. Key levels: • Resistances (HTF) : 113.5–114.0k (4H/12H/1D), 116–118k (1D/HTF), 124–126k (1D/1W). • Supports (HTF) : 109.5–110.0k (2H–12H), 105–107k (12H/1D), 100k (1D/1W). Volumes: Extreme on the 12H flush, now back to moderate/normal — no standalone reversal catalyst from volume. Multi-timeframe signals: 1D/12H/6H/4H trending Down; intradays (2H–15m) mostly FLAT to mildly bearish. A clean 12H/1D reclaim ≥114k is needed to flip momentum. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: NEUTRE VENTE — confirms a defensive stance until a daily trend flip is confirmed. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategy: defensive trend below 114–116k — favor tactical sells on strength; only buy on confirmed signals. Global bias: Cautiously bearish below 114k; key invalidation if 12H/1D close ≥114k with hold. Opportunities: • Breakout buy: Enter only after a 12H/1D close ≥114k + successful retest at 113.6–114.0k → target 116–118k. • Tactical sell: Fade a 112.8–114.5k rejection with rising sell volume → target 111.0k then 109.5k/107.8k. Risk zones / invalidations: • A daily close ≥116k invalidates the near-term bearish bias. • A decisive break ≤109k opens 107–105k via a liquidity sweep. Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): • Fed Beige Book: risk‑off tone (broad slowdown) — weighs on bounces. • Geopolitics (US–China tensions, US shutdown risk): headline volatility. • US spot‑ETF 7‑day inflows: supportive backdrop if 114k is reclaimed. Action plan: • Long (confirmed breakout): Entry 114.1–114.4k post‑retest; Stop 111.5k; TP1 116k, TP2 118k, TP3 121k; R/R ≈ 1.5–2. • Short (fade strength): Entry 113.2–114.2k on confirmed rejection; Stop 116.0k; TP1 111.0k, TP2 109.5k, TP3 107.8k; R/R ≈ 1.8–2.2. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ Higher timeframes lean down while intraday coils inside the larger range. 1D/12H/6H/4H: Lower highs below 114–116k; 109.5–110k remains the active demand shelf. A sustained 12H/1D reclaim ≥114k would mark a true state change. 2H/1H/30m/15m: Intraday coil 110.0–112.8k; repeated failures near 113.0–114.0k. Highest quality trades remain fades into upper range unless volume expands on a breakout. Major divergences/confluences: HTF bearish filters vs. positive 7‑day ETF flows — latent support, but not a trigger without the ≥114k signal. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro is mixed between risk‑off tone and still‑constructive institutional flows, keeping BTC in a transition phase. Macro events: • Fed Beige Book: broad slowdown — dampens near‑term risk appetite. • US–China tensions and US shutdown risk: elevated headline volatility. • Gold at record highs; oil headline‑driven — potential rotations, unconfirmed. Bitcoin analysis: • US spot‑ETF 7‑day inflows positive — medium‑term support, especially if 114k is reclaimed. • Large OI purge: leverage cleaned up, enabling recovery if demand persists. • Critical zones aligned: 114–118k supply; 109–110k/105–107k demand. On-chain data: • Funding reset, vol spike, ongoing LTH distribution — a “reset” not a cycle top. Expected impact: • While macro stays mixed and HTFs point down, expect 109–114k range behavior; a ≥114k reclaim + supportive flows would favor 116–118k. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is compressing in a range under 114–118k with 109–110k still defended. - Trend: neutral/bearish until a 12H/1D reclaim ≥114k. - Key setup: clean breakout ≥114k toward 116–118k; alternatively, fade 112.8–114.5k or trade a <110k breakdown toward 107–105k. - Macro: Fed Beige Book “risk‑off” vs. supportive 7‑day spot‑ETF flows. Stay disciplined: wait for confirmation ≥114k for longs; sell rips while HTFs remain Down. 👀
by Ox_kali
Bitcoin Playbook: 115k Reclaim or 110.8k Breakdown__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ Bitcoin is consolidating after a leverage flush, basing near 110.8–111.3k while rallies stall below 114.8–115k. Momentum: 📉 Mild bearish intraday tone within a broader range; sellers capping under 115k as 111k still absorbs. Key levels: • Resistances (1D/12H): 113.8–115k, 118k, 123–126k • Supports (1D/12H): 110.8–111.3k, 108–109k, 100k Volumes: MODERATE across TFs; look for spikes to validate any break. Multi-timeframe signals: 1D/12H = neutral→down; only 6H shows a tactical buy; intradays (4H/2H/1H) lean lower within the range. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: neutral buy — a light tailwind that aligns with range context but stops short of a strong buy. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic stance: post-reset range; stay tactical and level-driven, with a cautious bias until 115k is reclaimed. Global bias: Neutral-to-cautious below 115k; invalidate on clean acceptance/daily close above 114.8–115k. Opportunities: • Confirmed long: Reclaim/hold 114.8–115k → target 118k, then 123–126k on volume confirmation. • Defensive long: Hold 110.8–111.3k with bullish close → target 113.5–115k. • Tactical short: Fade 114.8–115k or short breakdown <110.8k → target 109k/108k. Risk zones / invalidations: • Acceptance below 110.8k → invalidates defensive longs, opens 109k then 108k/100k. • Acceptance above 115k → invalidates range fades, opens 118k. Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): • Fed “higher for longer” and data dependence → caps upside momentum. • U.S.–China tension chatter; firmer Treasuries and bid gold → caution. • Spot ETF 7d inflows positive → tailwind if 111k holds. Action plan: • Long (reclaim 115k): Entry ~115.0k / Stop ~113.5k / TP1 118k, TP2 123k, TP3 126k / R:R ~1:2–1:3. • Long (111k hold): Entry ~111.1k / Stop ~110.4k / TP1 113.5k, TP2 115k, TP3 118k / R:R ~1:2. • Short (break <110.8k): Entry ~110.6k / Stop ~111.6k / TP1 109k, TP2 108k, TP3 105k / R:R ~1:1.5–1:2. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ Higher timeframes stay range-bound and cautious while intradays lean bearish until 115k is reclaimed. 1D/12H: Base at 110.8–111.3k capped by 113.8–115k; a daily close above 115k would unlock 118k. Volumes are moderate → need confirmation. 6H: Active demand at 110.8–111.3k with a tactical buy read; room to rotate toward 113.5–115k if support holds. 4H/2H/1H/30m/15m: Lower‑timeframe sellers fade rallies; best risk points are fades under 113.5–115k or contrarian buys on sweeps/holds at 111k. Key divergences: Risk-on tailwind vs cautious higher‑TF filters; this tempers conviction and emphasizes strict invalidations. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro is mixed (hawkish Fed, geopolitics) while spot ETF flows add a modest tailwind; on-chain suggests a post‑flush reset regime. Macro events: Fed “higher for longer” with data dependence; renewed U.S.–China tension; firmer Treasuries and bid gold — a cautious mix for risk. Bitcoin analysis: BTC underperforms broader risk despite visible absorption at support; key zones align at 110.8–111.3k and 114.8–115k/118k. On-chain data: Large deleverage behind, funding normalized; sustained recovery needs spot demand and persistent ETF inflows. Expected impact: Neutral bias with a slight tailwind; technical confirmation above 115k is needed to unlock 118k+. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is consolidating on higher‑timeframe support while 115k caps rallies. - Trend: neutral to mildly bearish until 115k is reclaimed. - Top setup: confirmed reclaim of 114.8–115k → 118k, then 123–126k if volume expands. - Macro driver: positive 7d spot ETF inflows cushioning downside amid a hawkish Fed. Stay patient and disciplined: let price confirm above 115k or below 110.8k before pressing risk.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Ox_kali
Deleveraging done, waiting for a 116k confirmation__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC recovered a chunk of Friday’s wipeout and is ranging back below 116k, with leverage reset and volatility still elevated. Momentum: 📈 Technical rebound but still a range under 116k; upside needs a clean reclaim above 116k. Key levels: - Resistances (STF/MTF): 115.8–116.2k (pivot) • 119.9–120.5k • 124–126k (HTF). - Supports (STF/HTF): 114.0–114.3k • 110.8–111.5k (pivot cluster) • 108.8–109.0k. Volumes: Very high on 4H/6H during capitulation, only moderate on 1D so far. Multi-timeframe signals: 1D/12H filter is Up, while 6H→1H sit in NEUTRE VENTE until 116k is reclaimed; 15m ticks NEUTRE ACHAT only for execution. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator context: Overall NEUTRE VENTE — it contradicts the HTF bullish filter and argues for patience under 116k. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ Primary stance: higher-timeframe bullish, but capped under 116k — stay progressive and let price confirm. Global bias: Cautious bullish above 111k with validation >116k; swing invalidation on a daily close <111k. Opportunities: - Buy breakout: Go long on 4H/2H close >116.2k targeting 117.8k then 119.9–120.5k. - Breakout add-on: Add if 118–120k flips to support (pullback holds) toward 122k. - Tactical sell: Short clean rejections at 115.8–116.2k or loss of 114k, targeting 112.5k/111.1k. Risk zones / invalidations: - A confirmed break <111k reopens 108.8k then 105.6k (bullish invalidation). - Repeated 116–118k rejections with the Risk On / Risk Off Indicator at NEUTRE VENTE favor range fades. Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): - US–China: 100% tariff rhetoric followed by a softer tone → headline volatility. - Gold at ATH and Middle-East détente → risk appetite and hedging coexist. - Fed/BoE: easing bias in the backdrop, but Fed tone remains mixed. Action plan: - Long (116.2k breakout): Entry 116.0–116.3k / Stop 114.8k / TP1 117.8k, TP2 119.9–120.5k, TP3 122k • R/R ~2R→3R. - Short (116k rejection or <114k): Entry 115.6–116.0k or <114.0k / Stop 116.6k / TP1 114.0k, TP2 112.5k, TP3 111.1k • R/R ~1.8R→3R. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ HTFs stay constructive if 111k holds, while mid/low TFs chop below 116k awaiting confirmation. 1D/12H (filter Up): Bullish structure intact above 110.8–111.5k; sustained acceptance >115.8–116.2k opens 118–120k. 6H/4H/2H/1H (NEUTRE VENTE): Range 113.5–116k; 4H/6H “Very High” volume on the flush suggests a base, but no 116.2k close = still defensive. 30m/15m (execution): Compression below 116k; 15m flips NEUTRE ACHAT on trigger. Clean 30m/15m >116.2k + rising volume creates MTF confluence. Significance: Bullish confluence = defended 111k + 116.2k breakout + expanding volume; divergence = Risk On / Risk Off Indicator stuck NEUTRE VENTE under 116k. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Leverage has been cleansed and macro détente is tentative, supporting the bounce while risk appetite remains selective. Macro events: - US–China: 100% tariff headlines then softer messaging; de-escalation possible but reversible. - Geopolitics: hostage releases/ceasefire signals lower tail risk; gold at a new ATH underscores persistent hedging demand. - Central banks: BoE leaning to cuts; Fed’s tone mixed despite an easing bias. Bitcoin analysis: - Historic leverage flush on Friday, rebound to ~115k from ~111.4k → cleaner positioning. - Must reclaim 116k then 118–120k before the prior breakdown area below ~122k. - Flows/treasuries: USDT injections (e.g., 100M to Kraken) and MARA +400 BTC add liquidity, not strictly directional. On-chain data: - Massive OI wipe and record liquidations; sentiment back to “Fear”. - Strong on-chain support 117–120k; above it, confluence improves materially. Expected impact: - “Cautious détente” + deleveraging = conditional bullish bias; technically, confirmation is >116k then >118–120k. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ The market stabilized after a record flush, but 116k remains the gatekeeper. - Trend: HTF bullish, STF neutral until 116k is reclaimed. - Best setup: Confirmed breakout >116.2k with volume toward 117.8k then 120k. - Key macro: US–China détente and gold at ATH — supportive yet hedged risk tone. Stay nimble: act on signals, protect below 114k, and watch 111k as swing invalidation.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Ox_kali
DXY - Major Breakdown of Ascending ChannelAs a preface here, I am not a Forex trader. I analyze DXY as a method for predicting manipulated moves on Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency. Since I started with DXY analysis some 8 odd years ago, I’ve used the same channels. Price seems to (without argument) respect this channel and move in this fashion. So if anyone reading this has tips or knowledge I am missing. I’d appreciate the tips and insights. I draw here my expected DXY path - and related to that, the span of a true bull market on stocks and equities (4-7 years long beginning current) I’ll be using this post here to use as a reference for my analysis of a Bitcoin flash crash to 8,000 USD. Bitcoin has always seem to react to major pivots on DXY (in this case, a bearish retest). Love and respect to all of you. - DD
TVC:DXYShort
by DickDandy
Bitcoin Strategic Outlook: Macro and Technical SummaryMacroeconomic Context Global liquidity is rising again. Over 50 rate cuts across G-20 economies, combined with China’s multi-trillion-yuan stimulus, have added roughly US $5 trillion to global liquidity this year. The world has entered an easing cycle, supporting risk assets. The U.S. Federal Reserve has started cutting rates but remains cautious: strong fiscal spending on AI infrastructure and tight labor markets could reignite inflation. Analysts expect a pause in early 2026 if price pressures return. Real rates and Fed communication remain the key variables for traders. Early-Cycle Momentum & Dollar Weakness Global growth sits in an early-cycle phase. Manufacturing softness contrasts with steady service demand, while fiscal dominance—large government spending—keeps nominal growth near 3 %. Liquidity injections from China and other markets stabilize collateral values and suppress volatility. The U.S. dollar has weakened as capital rotates globally; historically, Bitcoin outperforms during dollar downtrends and post-geopolitical shocks, adding a macro tailwind. Institutional Demand U.S. spot ETFs continue to reshape supply. BlackRock’s IBIT surpassed US $15 billion in six months, while corporate holders of Bitcoin doubled to 134 firms. ETF and treasury accumulation now absorb most new issuance, muting volatility and creating a structural floor. Exchange outflows are at two-year highs, confirming long-term accumulation by whales and institutions. Regulation & Policy Clarity The GENIUS Act (2025) established a U.S. stablecoin framework, and FASB now requires fair-value accounting for crypto. Together with SEC listing standards, these changes reduce uncertainty for large investors. The U.S. shift toward clarity has improved confidence and should sustain institutional inflows. Technical Overview After eight months of consolidation, Bitcoin broke to new highs above $100 k. June’s monthly candle formed a bullish pin bar, confirming demand near $102 k. Indicators remain neutral with balanced funding rates. Key technical levels: • Resistance $125 k – major sell zone; breakout opens $130 k–$135 k. • Intermediate $104 k–$100 k – psychological support. • Strong support $95 k–$90 k – 200-day EMA zone. Losing $90 k risks a correction toward $82 k–$74 k. On-Chain and Sentiment Glassnode data show whales accumulating and exchange balances shrinking. Bitwise and Fidelity both note that ETFs and corporations now hold enough BTC to reduce daily float meaningfully. Market sentiment is bullish but measured—investors expect high volatility yet maintain multi-year confidence. Expert Consensus Standard Chartered, Tom Lee, and ARK Invest project $150 k–$200 k by end-2025, citing liquidity growth and adoption. VanEck and long-term macro investors place decade-end targets above $500 k–$1 million. RBC Capital Markets warns that inflation shocks could pause rate cuts; traders should watch CPI and real-yield trends closely. Strategic Outlook 1–3 months: Range trading $112 k–$125 k. Break above $125 k → $130 k–$135 k target. Below $116 k → test $112 k support. 6–12 months: Liquidity expansion and ETF inflows point to $150 k–$200 k. Best opportunities likely on pullbacks to $95 k–$100 k. 3–5 years: Fixed supply, corporate adoption, and de-dollarization support an upward bias; structural forecasts $500 k–$1 million remain plausible. Key Takeaways Global liquidity is the dominant driver—monitor rate cuts and USD trends. Institutional accumulation provides downside protection. $125 k resistance defines near-term risk/reward. Macro risks: renewed inflation, Fed policy reversals, geopolitical shocks. Conclusion Bitcoin enters Q4 2025 with a supportive macro backdrop, rising institutional demand, and technically strong structure. The path is volatile, but the long-term narrative of Bitcoin as a scarce, non-sovereign asset remains intact.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by HyroTrader
4
Breakout watch: buy >124,227, protect 121,585__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ The market keeps a bullish drive but stalls beneath a dense HTF resistance band at 124,227–125,650, with intraday digestion. Buyers hold the advantage above 121,585; the next leg needs acceptance above 124,227. Momentum: Bullish 📈, capped by 124,227–125,650; shallow pullbacks while 121,585 holds. Key levels: • Resistances (W/240): 124,227–125,650 (must clear) • Supports (1H–1D): 123,300–123,000 (intra) • 121,585 (4H/12H pivot) • 117,971 (1D pivot) Volumes: HTF normal; 6H/4H moderate; very high on 15m during 124.2k–125.6k tests (catalyst). Multi-timeframe signals: MTF trend filter is up (1D/12H/6H/4H), but a confirmed acceptance >124,227 is required; intraday (2H/1H/30m/15m) ranging tight under R with volume spikes. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: NEUTRAL BUY — no directional thrust, consistent with a cautious bullish bias; breakout confirmation still needed. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic stance: dominant uptrend into heavy resistance; favor “buy breakout / buy the dip” and only fade tactically on clean rejection. Global bias: Cautious bullish above 121,585; key invalidation on a close below 121,585. Opportunities: • Breakout buy: Enter on acceptance >124,227 with rising volume; aim for 125,650. • Dip buy: Buy 121,700–121,200 (around 121,585) if HTF structure holds. • Tactical short: Fade 124.2k–125.6k on rejection wick + sell-volume expansion. Risk zones / invalidations: • A decisive break below 121,585 invalidates the bullish bias and opens 117,971. • A 12H/1D close >125,800 invalidates rejection shorts. Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): • Strong US spot BTC ETF inflows — supportive of dip absorption. • Near-term macro tape is light; gold firm and oil up keep the backdrop mixed. • FOMC Minutes (Oct 8) could tilt the risk-on/off regime near 124,227. Action plan: • Breakout long: Entry 124,250–124,450 / Stop: close <124,200–123,650 / TP1 125,000, TP2 125,650, TP3 runner; R/R ~1.8–2.2. • Dip long: Entry 121,700–121,200 / Stop: close below 121,585 / TP1 124,000, TP2 124,900, TP3 125,650; R/R ~2.0–2.5 on clean bounce. • Fade short: Entry 124,200–124,700 / Stop: >125,800 / TP1 123,300, TP2 121,585, TP3 117,971; R/R ~1.5–2.0 on swift rejection. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ Higher timeframes stay bullish overall, while intraday frames consolidate beneath resistance with volume spikes acting as catalysts. 1D/12H/6H/4H: Uptrend off 108,709, pausing under 124,227–125,650; above 121,585, digestion favors continuation to 125,650 if acceptance above 124,227 materializes. 2H/1H/30m/15m: Tight range 123,000–124,300; very high volume on attempts into 124.2k–125.6k — a validated break with volume likely carries toward 125k/125,650. Major divergences/confluences: Strong support confluence at 123,300–123,000 and 121,585; HTF volumes neutral vs. intraday high at R — the breakout needs flow confirmation to avoid a fake-out. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ US spot BTC ETF flows remain the dominant driver, while the immediate macro calendar is light and the broader backdrop stays nuanced. Macro events: Solid ETF inflows (ongoing streak), gold firm and oil higher suggest a mixed backdrop; BOJ cautious, EU eyeing looser fiscal rules, US housing softer; FOMC Minutes upcoming. Bitcoin analysis: Institutional/ETP flows described as sticky, supporting dips and trend resilience; technically, validation above 124,227 is required. On-chain data: STH cost basis ~111.6k defended; LTH distribution cooling; options OI reset with softer IV and more neutral skew — constructive backdrop. Expected impact: Bullish bias maintained if a confirmed breakout above 124,227 occurs; otherwise, expect a 123,000/121,585 range. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ The market is bullish yet compressed beneath 124,227–125,650, requiring a confirmed breakout to re-ignite momentum. - Overall trend: bullish/constructive above 121,585. - Most relevant setup: confirmed break >124,227 with volume toward 125,650; alternatively, buy the dip at 121,585 on rejection. - Key macro factor: strong US spot ETF inflows aiding dip absorption. Stay nimble: demand breakout confirmation via closes and volume; otherwise, manage the range and protect risk. ✍️
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Ox_kali
119.6–120k: key supply wall before 123.6–124.5k__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ Price is pressing into a major HTF supply zone after a strong advance while holding the reclaimed daily pivot. The backdrop stays constructive as long as key supports hold, but we’re knocking on a heavy resistance. Momentum: 📈 Bullish but cautious — price is testing 119.6k–120.0k (HTF supply) after reclaiming 117.9k. Key levels: • Resistances (HTF): 119.6k–120.0k; 123.6k–124.47k. • Supports (MTF): 117.9k; 116.3k–114.8k; 111.04k–110.3k. Volumes: Normal to moderate (slight pick-up on 1H/30m), no extreme signal. Multi-timeframe signals: 1D/12H/6H/4H trend up; 2H/30m flag tactical overextension under 119.6–120k — consistent with supply test. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: Neutral Buy — confirms the constructive bias without overheating; aligned with current momentum. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ Dominant trend is up into HTF supply; favor buy-the-dip or confirmed breakouts, with strict invalidations. Global bias: Cautiously bullish while 117.9k holds on a closing basis; primary invalidation on a daily close < 117.9k. Opportunities: • Breakout buy: Buy 30m–4H closes/acceptance above 119.6k; aim for 120.2k then 123.6k–124.47k. • Pullback buy: Buy 117.9k if defended with a bullish signal; target 119.2k then 119.6k–120.0k. • Tactical sell: Fade 119.6–120.0k only on clean rejection (wicks + sell pressure) toward 118.3k then 116.3k–114.8k (reduced size). Risk zones / invalidations: • A break below 117.9k invalidates near-term longs (risk opens toward 116.3–114.8k). • Sustained acceptance above 120.2k invalidates fade shorts. Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): • Positive US spot BTC ETF inflows (recent impulse) — supports dips. • Gold near highs and firmer oil — mixed inflation/risk backdrop but not outright risk-off. • Softer US housing — cooling growth, often supportive if real rates compress. Action plan: • Entry: 119.65k–119.80k (breakout confirmed by 2×30m) / Stop: < 119.05k / TP1: 120.20k, TP2: 123.60k, TP3: 124.47k / R/R ≈ 1.8–2.5R depending on execution. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ Higher timeframes lean long, while lower timeframes ask for tactical patience at supply. 1D/12H/6H/4H: Uptrend with higher highs/lows; 117.9k is a key pivot; continuation setup on break/acceptance > 119.6k toward 123.6k–124.47k. 2H/1H: Compression under 119.6–120k; some overextension risk — prefer validated dips over chasing. 30m/15m: Noisier; repeated rejections below 119.6–120k can whipsaw. Major confluence: 117.9k (defense) vs 119.6k (trigger). __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro/on-chain is constructive without being euphoric; ETF flows are supportive while the macro mix is mixed but not outright risk-off. Macro events: Gold near highs (policy/risk hedging), oil firmer (Russia supply), US housing softer — a cocktail of cooler growth + mixed price pressure, often friendly to scarcity assets. Bitcoin analysis: Institutional demand via spot ETFs is backstopping dips; technicians watch for a clean breakout; derivatives positioning is bullish, hence the need for confirmation. On-chain data: Repeated defense around STH cost basis (~111.6k); dense overhead supply easing; options IV softens with balanced skew — good conditions for clean breakouts. Expected impact: Positive ETF flows and a non–risk-off macro validate a Neutral Buy bias while acknowledging the 119.6–120k supply wall. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ Bullish market pressing a major supply shelf. - Trend: 📈 Bullish/Neutral Buy; a clean break above 119.6k is needed to open 123.6–124.5k. - Top setup: Buy defended pullbacks at 117.9k or confirmed breakout > 119.6k; tactical shorts only on clear rejection. - Macro: US spot ETF inflows turned positive — structural support for dips and validated breakouts. Stay opportunistic but disciplined: demand confirmation, watch volumes, and manage risk tightly.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Ox_kali
BTC Tests Range Highs Below 120k: Wait for Confirmation __________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is back at the top of its range, pressing 116.8k–117.97k just beneath the 120k barrier. Higher timeframes (12H/1D) lean bullish, while mid-TFs still push back — confirmation is key before chasing strength. Momentum: 📈 Cautiously bullish; above 115.2k, a clean close >117.97k would likely unlock 120k. Key levels: Resistances: 116.8k–117.97k; 120k; 124.3k. Supports: 115.2k; 114k; 112.4k–111.1k. Volumes: Very high on 6H→30m (mostly under resistance), normal on 1D. Multi-timeframe signals: 1D/12H Up; 6H/4H/2H Down; 1H/30m/15m Up. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator context: NEUTRE VENTE — slight risk-off, contradicting daily momentum. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ With range highs overhead, stay constructive but disciplined: lean cautiously bullish while 115.2k holds and wait for confirmed breaks to avoid traps. Global bias: Cautious bullish while 115.2k holds; major invalidation on a 1D close <114k. Opportunities: • Pullback buy if 115.2k holds, then confirm >116.8k. • Breakout long on 1D close >117.97k; add if 120k flips to support. • Tactical sell on rejection at 116.8k–117.97k toward 115.2k then 114k. Risk zones / invalidations: Loss of 115.2k opens 114k/112.4k; a 1D close >120.6k invalidates top-shorts. Macro catalysts: Fed −25 bps (supports risk), potential US data timing shifts (ISM/NFP) that can cluster volatility, and positive BTC spot ETF flows (Day +$430M) reinforcing dips. Action plan: Entry >117.97k (≥2 closes + retest) / Stop <115.8k / TP1 120k, TP2 122.5k, TP3 124.3k / R:R ~1.8–2.5. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ Higher timeframes point up, but mid-TF supply still caps price near the range highs; intraday strength needs follow-through to avoid bull traps. 1D/12H: Holding above 115.2k preserves upside bias; convert 117.97k to open 120k then 124.3k. 6H/4H/2H: Seller pressure below 116.8k–117.5k; beware fake breaks without volume follow-through. 1H/30m/15m: Impulsive bounce is constructive, but requires break/hold (≥2 bars) to confirm trend continuation. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ A supportive macro backdrop and improving flows help, but timing risks keep volatility elevated around resistance. Macro events: Fed easing (−25 bps) underpins risk appetite; shifting ISM/NFP timing may concentrate moves around data windows. Bitcoin analysis: 114k–115.2k defended; highest quarterly close; weekly ETF inflows turned positive. On-chain data: STH cost basis ~111k; ETF inflows resumed; recent deleveraging cleans positioning. Expected impact: Slight bullish tilt if 115.2k holds and 117.97k flips to support; otherwise risk of 114k/112.4k retests. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is pressing range highs with active supply below 120k. The cleaner long is a confirmed breakout >117.97k with 120k turning into support; otherwise, fading rejections back into 115.2k remains valid. Macro support (−25 bps + positive ETF flows) helps, but confirmation at resistance matters most. Stay patient and execute only on validated signals.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Ox_kali
Bitcoin capped below 115k: plan and invalidations__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is staging a controlled recovery above 111k while stalling beneath a heavy 113.8k–116k supply zone ahead of the 117.97k pivot. The backdrop is constructive, but intraday timeframes still show profit-taking. Momentum: Bullish 📈 on 1D/12H, with active consolidation on 2H–6H after the 114.6k–114.8k rejection. Key levels: • Resistances (HTF): 114.8k–116k (1D/12H), 117.97k (1D), 124.3k (W). • Supports (HTF): 112.4k–111.5k (12H), 110.4k (pivot), 109.3k (6H). Volumes: Normal on 1D, very high intraday on the 114.6k–114.8k fade, moderate on 6H. Multi-timeframe signals: 1D/12H Up; 2H/4H/6H Down (pullback within HTF trend); 1H/30m/15m tactical rebounds at 112.6k–112.9k. Elevated offer-side volumes argue for clear validations before breakout. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: NEUTRAL BUY → mild risk-on bias, aligned with HTF momentum; occasional intraday spikes to STRONG BUY, but not persistent. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ Context: HTF trend is bullish; favor disciplined dip-buys at supports with confirmation, be cautious below 114.8k–116k. Global bias: Moderately bullish while > 111k; primary invalidation below 110.4k (structure loss). Opportunities: • Buy-the-dip: Buy 112.7k–112.2k on reversal signal; target 114.6k then 115.3k/117.0k. • Breakout: Buy break & hold > 114.8k (30m–1H) aiming for 117.97k. • Tactical sell: Fade clean rejection at 114.6k–115.3k (wick + volume) toward 113.7k then 112.9k. Risk zones / invalidations: A firm break < 112.2k reopens 111.5k–110.4k; a 1D close > 118k invalidates tactical shorts. Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): • Fed: initial 25 bp cut and gradual easing path → gentle risk-on. • Softer USD, gold at highs, oil lower (OPEC+) → supportive tailwind for BTC. • US shutdown risk + CPI/ISM/NFP week → elevated volatility near key levels. Action plan: • Entry: 112.7k–112.2k (candle reversal + intraday momentum rebuild). • Stop: below 111.8k (aggressive) or below 110.4k (conservative). • TP: 114.6k (TP1) / 115.3k (TP2) / 117.0k (TP3). • R/R guide: ~1.8R (tight stop) up to ~2.5–3R (wide stop) depending on execution/trailing. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ Overall HTF is bullish, MTF is breathing, and LTF is rebounding at demand. 1D/12H: Bullish structure above 111k–112k; compression below 114.8k–116k. A daily close > 114k strengthens odds for 117.97k. 6H/4H/2H: Orderly pullback after 109k→114k impulse; buyer pivot 112.4k–111.9k; sustained upside needs > 113.8k then > 114.6k. 1H/30m/15m: Tactical bid active at 112.6k–112.9k; very high offer-side volumes → wait for confirmations, avoid late chases under 114.8k. Confluences/divergences: Strong confluence 112.4k–111.5k; recent intraday divergences suggest shallow but jumpy pullbacks. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro is mildly supportive (more dovish Fed, softer USD), while on-chain and ETF signals are positive but uneven. Macro events: Fed started easing (−25 bp) with a cautious tone; USD softer, gold at highs, oil lower (OPEC+); US shutdown risk and CPI/ISM/NFP in focus. Bitcoin analysis: ETF inflows turned positive on the day but 7D trend is fragile → tactical support to dip-buys; technical structure reclaimed with firm BTC dominance. On-chain data: STH cost basis near ~111k is pivotal; LTH realized sizable profits; derivatives deleveraging and elevated put skew → respect downside shock risk. Expected impact: Supportive yet not euphoric, fitting a “buy dips” approach while 110.4k holds; above 114.8k, macro could help extend toward 117.97k. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is recovering above 111k but sellers defend 114.8k–116k. - Overall trend: Constructively bullish on HTF, with a breathing MTF. - Best setup: Disciplined buy at 112.7k–112.2k with confirmations; extend if break & hold > 114.8k toward 117.97k. - Key macro: Gradual Fed easing + softer USD provide a tailwind. Stay selective: demand confirmations at offers and watch 110.4k as the key line in the sand.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Ox_kali
I'm still long biased @ $XAUUSD (but deleveraging)Technical View A potential bullish cup & handle pattern is forming, often seen as a continuation signal. Price has already broken out of a bearish channel, which suggests that buyers have taken control. Triangle and wedge formations point to pressure building upward. The broader macro channel remains intact, so the larger trend has not been broken. Clear invalidation levels are visible near 3,730 and 3,612, which provides trade structure from a technical perspective. Overall, the technical picture continues to lean bullish. Macro View US CPI remains sticky while jobless claims are softening, hinting at stagflation dynamics. The Federal Reserve is under pressure to cut rates, with real interest rates already negative. Historically, when real rates are negative, gold tends to outperform bonds as a store of value. Global central banks remain net buyers of gold as they diversify away from Treasuries. This combination is similar to the 1970s stagflation backdrop: falling rates with inflation uncertainty often encouraged capital flows into gold. Opinion Technicals suggest upward momentum. Macro factors also support a bullish bias. The main caveat is that positioning in gold is already heavy, which can lead to sharp short-term volatility. Directionally, however, the long bias aligns with both the charts and the macro backdrop. Disclaimer This post reflects only my personal market observations and opinions, shared for educational and informational purposes. It should not be considered financial advice, investment recommendation, or a call to action. Trading financial markets involves risk, and you should carefully assess your own situation and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions. Past performance or historical patterns do not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional if needed.
TICKMILL:XAUUSDLong
by TheAlphaGroup
BTC: Reclaim 110.4–111.1k or lose 108.7k — the pivot__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is in a corrective phase after the 117–124k top, still holding the HTF demand at 108,713–107,286. Price is highly level‑driven, with a mild risk‑off tone capping rebounds near 110.4–111.1k. Momentum: 📉 Slightly bearish below 110,402–111,135, with a low‑range structure holding above 108,713. Key levels: • Resistances (1H/4H/1D) : 110,402–111,135 (major lid), 114,471, 117,971. • Supports (12H/1D/1W) : 108,713–107,286 (demand zone), 98,330 (weekly base). Volumes: Very high on the sell‑leg in 4H/2H/1H; normal to moderate on 1D. Multi-timeframe signals: 1D/12H filters stay up, while 6H/4H/2H lean down; 1H/30m/15m show tactical long windows on support. A reclaim of 110.4–111.1k would align TFs higher. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: Reading NEUTRAL SELL → confirms capped rebounds and slightly contradicts the HTF up filter. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic stance: HTF trend still up but fading; stay opportunistic and disciplined around key levels. Global bias: Neutral‑bearish below 110,402–111,135; bias invalidated if a daily close above 111,135 holds. Opportunities: • Reclaim buy: Go long on breakout + held retest of 110,402 toward 111,135, targeting 114,471 next. • Tactical sell: Fade clean rejections at 110,402/111,135 if risk‑off persists, targeting 109.0k then 108,713. • Breakdown sell: Short confirmed loss of 108,713 (≥2 closes + failed retest) toward 107,286. Risk zones / invalidations: • A break of 108,713 likely opens 107,286 and raises downside momentum risk. • Reclaim of 111,135 invalidates tactical shorts and unlocks 114,471. Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): • PCE in line: supports “higher‑for‑longer” and a firm USD → mild headwind. • Fed “data‑dependent”: restrictive but flexible; market guided by levels. • Spot ETFs: negative daily flow, 7‑day near neutral → cautious near term, MT adoption intact. Action plan: • Long (reclaim): Entry 110,450–110,650 / Stop < 108,713 / TP1 111,135, TP2 114,471, TP3 117,971 / R:R ~2–3. • Short (rejection): Entry 110,100–110,300 / Stop > 111,135 / TP1 109,000, TP2 108,713, TP3 107,286 / R:R ~1.8–2.5. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ Overall, HTFs remain constructive while MTF/intraday manage a base‑building range under nearby resistance. 1D/12H: Up filters softening; 108,713–107,286 defended; a reclaim above 111,135 would target 114,471. 6H/4H/2H: Down sequences with notable sell volume; 110,402 caps rebounds; loss of 108,713 likely opens 107,286. 1H/30m/15m: Tactical long windows on support (absorption/wicks), yet need a sustained push >110,402; otherwise the low range persists. Major divergences/confluences: HTF support confluence (108,713–107,286) vs mild risk‑off impulse; clearing 110.4–111.1k aligns TFs higher. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro is slightly constraining but not shocking, while on‑chain/flows set the tactical pivot. Macro events: • PCE in line and firm USD: reinforce “higher‑for‑longer” → mild risk‑off bias. • Fed data‑dependent: restrictive yet flexible; elevated sensitivity to levels. • New US tariffs: potential near‑term inflation impulse → possible risk‑off spillovers. Bitcoin analysis: • STH Cost Basis ~109.5–111k: a key psychological/technical pivot; fast regain fits bull‑market behavior if held. • Options/futures: post‑expiry “cleanup” and positioning reset; snapbacks likely if levels are reclaimed. • ETFs: daily outflows, 7‑day near neutral; MT adoption intact, but caution short term. On-chain data: • Sentiment washed out (low Fear & Greed) with improving hashrate: structurally supportive backdrop. • Stablecoins: recent issuance indicates “dry powder,” not guaranteed to deploy. Expected impact: Without a reclaim of 110.4–111.1k, mild risk‑off weighs; above it, MT/flow confluence favors a squeeze toward ~114.5k. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is basing in a low range atop HTF supports, with a mild macro headwind. - Overall trend: neutral‑bearish below 110.4–111.1k, yet 12H/1D filters remain up. - Most relevant setup: reclaim buy above 110.4–111.1k toward 114.5k; conversely, loss of 108.7k targets 107.3k. - One key macro: PCE in line and a data‑dependent Fed keep a mild risk‑off tone. Let the levels lead: wait for a confirmed reclaim above 110.4–111.1k or a breakdown of 108.7k before committing risk. ⚖️
Long
by Ox_kali
BTC | 111k holds: tactical long bias, eyes on 113.1k__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is consolidating above 111,040, trapped in a tight range with a higher‑timeframe bullish bias, while intraday remains pressured below 113,129. The 111k area acts as the market’s key pivot. 🔁 Momentum: Range with bullish tilt 📈 — higher TFs positive (1D/12H), intraday needs a reclaim above 113,129. Key levels: • Resistances (TF): 113,129–114,384 (240/1D, immediate ceiling), 117,900 (1D, upper cap). • Supports (TF): 111,040 (240/1D, major pivot), 110,440 (intraday), 107,255 (1D). Volumes: Normal on daily; moderate on 4H/30m downside pushes — no standalone catalyst. Multi-timeframe signals: 1D/12H/6H bullish, 4H/2H/1H mixed-to-bearish below 113,129; a reclaim/hold > 113,129 opens 114,384. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: NEUTRAL BUY (stronger on 15m) — confirms the range‑bullish bias and favors buy‑the‑dip above 111k. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic stance: higher‑timeframe uptrend, prefer tactical longs above 111,040. 🎯 Global bias: NEUTRAL BUY while 111,040 holds; key invalidation on a close below 111,040 (align TF to your horizon). Opportunities: • Defensive long: bullish reaction confirmed above 111,040; add on break/hold > 112,300 then > 113,129. • Breakout long: close and hold > 113,129 (30m/15m ≥ 2 bars) to target 114,384. • Tactical sell: clean rejection at 112.9k–113.1k with selling volume, target a pullback to 111,040 (reduced size vs HTF filter). Risk zones / invalidations: • A confirmed loss of 111,040 → increases risk toward 110,440 then 107,255. • Reclaim & hold > 113,129 → negates intraday pressure and unlocks 114,384. Macro catalysts: • Fed: -25 bps cut with dovish guidance — medium‑term risk support, validates buy‑the‑dip. • Dollar (DXY): bounce risk — near‑term headwind, argues for staged entries. • ETF flows: recent modest inflows, neutral‑to‑slightly constructive — not a trigger but doesn’t cap the technical upside. Action plan: • Entry: 111,300–111,500 on re‑acceptance/HL confirmation (15m/30m); add if holding > 112,300 then > 113,129. • Stop: 110,850 (below swing & S1). • TP1: 112,950; TP2: 113,129–113,300; TP3: 114,300–114,400. • R/R: ≈ 2.0–2.5x depending on execution and adds. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ Overall, higher timeframes lean bullish while lower timeframes remain pressured until 113,129 is reclaimed. 🧭 1D/12H/6H: Bullish bias while holding 111,040; clearing 113,129 then 114,384 would enable compression toward 117,900. 4H/2H/1H/30m/15m: Intraday pressure below 113,129, moderate volume on sell pushes; dip‑buys near 111,040 remain preferred as long as the pivot holds. Key divergences: HTF Up vs LTF Down → favors “buy the dip” at support, confirmed by volume and reclaim of prior caps (112,300 → 113,129). __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro backdrop is modestly supportive (dovish Fed), but a dollar bounce could cap near‑term rallies; ETF flows are constructive but not decisive. ⚖️ Macro events: Fed -25 bps and still‑dovish dot plot support risk; a technical DXY bounce remains a short‑term counterweight. Bitcoin analysis: Defending ~111k near the 100D; gradual recovery toward the 50D plausible if 113,129/114,384 are reclaimed; institutional/ETF tone mildly positive. On-chain data: Not provided — technicals and flows drive the lens. Expected impact: Macro is broadly risk‑friendly, but execution should be paced under resistance; prefer staged entries above 111k. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is ranging above 111,040 with a higher‑timeframe bullish bias and intraday headwinds below 113,129. - Trend: bullish in HTF, neutral/paused intraday until 113,129 is reclaimed. - Setup: buy the dip above 111,040, then add on breakout > 113,129 toward 114,384. - Macro: Dovish Fed supports the case, while a firm DXY can slow upside. Stay nimble: watch 111,040 defense and the 113,129 reclaim to trigger the next leg.
Long
by Ox_kali
BTC: Defend 111.6k, confirm > 113,050 → 114,472__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC sits on a defended HTF support while an intraday ceiling caps any extension. The bias stays cautiously bullish as long as 111,800–111,600 holds, but a confirmed reclaim above 113,050 is still needed. Momentum: Fragile bullish range 📈 — buyers hold 111,800–111,600, yet 113,050 keeps a lid on price. Key levels: - Resistances (2H–1D): 113,050 (intra cap), 114,472 (HTF pivot), 116,200–117,300 (extension). - Supports (HTF→intra): 111,800–111,600 (major 240 PL), 111,150 (intra), 107,286 (D PL). Volumes: Very high on 30m/15m (potential reversal fuel), normal on 4H–1D. Multi-timeframe signals: 1D/12H/6H/4H/2H trend Up; 1H still Down; 30m/15m trying to turn — reclaim of 113,050 with persistence is the key. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: NEUTRAL BUY (moderate risk-on) — supportive but not decisive; on very short TFs (15m) it tilts toward STRONG BUY if the breakout confirms. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ Core stance: favor defensive buys at support or strength buys on confirmed breakouts, with a clear invalidation below 111,600. Global bias: Moderately bullish (NEUTRAL BUY) while 111,600 holds; invalidation on a confirmed close < 111,600. Opportunities: - Buy-the-dip: Buy 111,800–111,600 on clean rejection + confirmation; target 114,000 then 114,472. - Breakout buy: Buy a reclaim > 113,050 with a held retest; add > 114,472 if volume expands. - Tactical sell: Fade clean rejections at 113,050–114,472 or a confirmed break < 111,600. Risk zones / invalidations: A loss of 111,600 opens 111,150 then 107,286; failure to reclaim 113,050 over 2–3 bars weakens the bullish case. Macro catalysts: - Fed (25 bps cut, dovish tilt): supportive backdrop, but price must confirm. - Spot ETF flows softening: headwind for breakouts near resistance. - Geopolitics (Ukraine/Syria): headline risk — demand confirmation before sizing up. Action plan: - Entry: 111,850–111,600 (confirmed rejection) or > 113,050 (break & retest). - Stop: below 111,150 (dip-buy) or below 112,400 (post-break). - TP1/TP2/TP3: 114,000, 114,472, 116,217 (leave a runner toward 117.9k if momentum builds). - R/R: ~1.8–2.5R depending on entry and breakout validation. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ Higher timeframes remain constructive while execution TFs need a reclaim of 113,050 to realign. 1D/12H/6H/4H/2H: Bullish structure while 111,800–111,600 holds; a reclaim of 113,050 unlocks 114,472 then 116,200–117,300. 1H: Still capped under 113,050/114,472; needs a close above to neutralize local supply. 30m/15m: Very strong volumes and intraday risk-on support a bounce attempt; confirmation requires a persistent hold above 113,050. Confluences/divergences: Bullish confluence = HTF support + MTF Up + moderate risk-on; key divergence = 1H still Down, raising fake-break risks without persistence. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro is slightly supportive (more accommodative Fed) but tempered by soft spot flows and elevated geopolitics — hence the need for technical confirmation. Macro events: - Fed: 25 bps cut with a data‑dependent tone — structurally supportive, not an automatic upside trigger. - Geopolitics: elevated risks (Ukraine/Syria) that can boost volatility and cap rallies at resistance. - Spot ETFs: recent soft flows — a tactical headwind into nearby ceilings. Bitcoin analysis: - Supply remains active under 113k; demand is defended at 111,800–111,600 (HTF), with a broader demand area near 109k/107,286 if it breaks. - Derivatives: elevated options OI into the 26/09 expiry; “max pain” near 110k — can magnetize price if breakouts fail. On-chain data: - Comfort threshold ~115.2k (~95% of supply in profit): above it momentum sustains; below it risks an oscillation inside 105.5k–115.2k. Expected impact: - Slight rebound edge (NEUTRAL BUY), but proof via price is required: above 113,050/114,472 the macro tailwind can play; otherwise expect range and head-fakes. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ Range-bound but constructive above a key HTF support. - Overall trend: conditionally bullish with a 113,050–114,472 ceiling. - Most relevant setup: defensive buys at 111,800–111,600 or strength buys only after a confirmed reclaim > 113,050. - Key macro factor: the recent Fed cut improves the risk backdrop, but soft flows/headlines require price confirmation. Be patient: demand a clean signal (break + retest + volume) before sizing up. 👀
Long
by Ox_kali
BTC: Bullish range below 114,472, 111,809 remains key__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is holding a constructive 110k–115k range after rejection below 117k, with buyers defending 111,809 and supply capping under 114,472–116,217. The HTF trend remains intact, but breakouts need volume confirmation. Momentum: 📈 Bullish-in-range — building above 111,809, but capped until 114,472 breaks. Key levels: - Resistances (4H/12H): 114,472; 116,217–117,966; 124,278 (W). - Supports (4H/1D): 111,809; 110,000; 107,286–107,299 (1D). Volumes: Very high on 1H/30m (pivot validation), normal on 1D — acts as a breakout catalyst. Multi-timeframe signals: 1D/12H trend up; 6H/4H “neutral buy” below 114,472; 2H/1H recovering; 30m/15m impulsive but close to resistance. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: NEUTRAL BUY (STRONG BUY on 15m) → moderate long bias, consistent with momentum while 111,809 holds. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategy context: HTF trend is bullish, range in play; favor tactical longs while 111,809 holds and fade clean rejections below 116,217. Global bias: NEUTRAL BUY above 111,809; invalidation if daily close < 111,809. Opportunities: - Range long: re-accumulate 112.05k–112.3k if 111,809 holds cleanly; add on break & hold > 114,472. - Breakout: buy the close and successful retest > 114,472 targeting 116,217 then 117,966. - Tactical short: sell a clear rejection at 114,472/116,217 (wick + volume), manage tight and take profits fast. Risk zones / invalidations: A confirmed loss of 111,809 reopens 110k then 107,286 (bull bias invalid). A 12H/1D close > 116,217 invalidates fade shorts. Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): - Powell’s speech: potential trigger for break or fakeout. - US PMIs: can spark the 114,472 break or a rejection. - Hard assets strong (gold at records) and oil lower: mixed “inflation/sentiment” that shapes risk appetite. Action plan: - Long (range/break): Entry 112.05k–112.3k or > 114,472 / Stop 111,650 / TP1 114,472, TP2 116,217, TP3 117,966 / R:R ~2–3. - Short (tactical): Entry 114.3k–114.5k (rejection) / Stop 114,800 / TP1 113.1k, TP2 111,809 / R:R ~1.5–2 (reduced size). __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ Overall, HTFs (1D/12H) stay bullish, while LTFs rebound but still face nearby resistance. 1D/12H: Uptrend above 111,809 and 107,286 pivots; reclaim of 114,472 would open 116,217 then 117,966 with volume confirmation. 6H/4H: “Neutral buy” below 114,472; active range 111,809–114,472; a close > 114,472 should target 116,217. 2H/1H: Ongoing rebound, strong 1H volumes at the pivot; need a close > 114,472 to convert into impulse. 30m/15m: Intraday impulse (strong risk-on on 15m) but immediate friction at 114,472; beware fake breaks without a successful retest. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro is mixed: Fed speak and PMIs are in focus, hard assets strong and oil easing — likely to polarize breaks on the key technical levels. Macro events: Powell can trigger a break/reversion; US PMIs may add volatility; record gold and softer oil adjust the “inflation/sentiment” lens. Bitcoin analysis: 110k–115k range with 117–117.5k rejection; the 112k–110k support cluster is pivotal to preserve the structural bull bias. On-chain data: Not provided here — no actionable on-chain extremes mentioned in this set. Expected impact: If Powell/PMIs validate risk-on, a close > 114,472 should extend to 116,217–117,966; otherwise, expect a return to 111,809 then 110k. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC trades a bullish range above a key pivot while dense resistance sits overhead. - Trend: moderately bullish while 111,809 holds; need a close > 114,472 to re-ignite upside. - Prime setup: buy the defense of 111,809 or the break & hold > 114,472, aiming 116,217 then 117,966. - Macro: Powell/PMIs can trigger the break or produce intraday traps. Stay disciplined: wait for close-and-retest confirmations to size up, and de-risk quickly if macro flow contradicts the signal.
Long
by Ox_kali
Short Arabica Coffee🔍 Setup Price is approaching a well‐defined supply/resistance zone (red area on chart). Historically this zone has acted as overhead resistance. Below, there is a green demand/support zone which should act as target support area. My target on the short is around 7.8% downside from entry, with stop loss placed just above the resistance zone / recent swing high to limit risk. 📊 Fundamental & Sentiment Background (COT & Others) According to the latest COT report (as of 9 Sep 2025), commercial hedgers are significantly net short in Coffee C. tradingster.com However, speculators / non-commercials are heavily net long. This suggests that bullish momentum is still in force. tradingster.com Open interest is rising, showing participation in current levels. This makes the risk of a breakout (to the upside) real, if bulls hold control. ⚠️ Risks to this trade Momentum from speculators could drive price through resistance, triggering stop losses and a strong short squeeze. Any unexpected fundamental shock (weather, export disruption, currency devaluation, etc.) could reduce supply or boost demand, pushing prices higher. If volume doesn’t drop on advance into resistance, the upward move may be stronger than anticipated. ✅ Conditions / Trigger For Entry I will consider entering the short position once: Price touches or re-tests the red supply zone. There's a clear rejection (candlestick reversal pattern + bearish confirmation). Momentum or RSI / MACD divergence is visible. Speculator net longs show signs of plateauing or declining in the COT (next report). 🎯 Targets & Risk/Reward Entry: around current price near supply, or after confirmed rejection. Stop Loss: just above resistance / recent high. Target: green demand/support zone (approx. 7-8% downside). Risk-Reward Estimate: aiming for at least 1.5-2x potential reward vs. risk, ideally better. 🧐 My Edge vs What Could Go Wrong My trading strategy gives me an average short profit of 7.8%, so this is in line with my risk appetite. The probability for a profitable trade for a short position is 75%. However, on average I will lose 12% on a losing short trade. But I’m aware shorting commodities is riskier when there's strong bullish positioning (as is the case with speculators now). I will monitor upcoming COT reports and fundamentals closely — if speculators increase longs again, I might bail earlier or tighten stops. Conclusion: The COT data does not overwhelmingly confirm a short at this moment. It offers partial support via hedger short positions, but speculator long bias remains strong. If price shows a credible technical rejection in the supply zone and sentiment shows cracks, I believe this short has good risk/reward.
ICEUS:KC1!Short
by AlphaTurtle
Macro Stress Test for Bitcoin: Short-Term Scalps or Swing Awaits__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ Bitcoin just experienced a violent flush toward its structural support (111,900–112,000) amid extreme intraday volatility. Downside has been aggressive, but core trend signals and volume dynamics hint at a potential technical reversal. Momentum : Neutral-bullish 📈 — Price action is anchored above 112,000, despite recent capitulation, with MTFTI remaining "Up" across all relevant timeframes. Key Levels : Resistances : — 116,200/117,000 (1D/12H), major cluster/weekly pivot — 114,200/114,400 (12H/6H/4H), tactical zone for initial rebounds Supports : — 111,900–112,000 (all TFs), structurally central platform — 110,900/111,200 (4H/2H), secondary defense to watch if breakdown occurs Volumes : Very high on 1H/30min/15min ⚡️— Clear signs of capitulation at support, technical bounce potential (short squeeze) activated. Multi-Timeframe signals : MTFTI reads "Up" from 1H to 1D, IGV/SPY (Risk On / Risk Off Indicator) is "Neutral Buy" (moderately positive), all confirming strength of support at 112,000. Only high-level macro dashboard signals remain defensive. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator : Neutral Buy bias — Recent stabilisation and moderate equity outperformance warrant a constructive view for tactical longs, though macro caution persists. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ Current conditions are defined by a sharp flush but a directional "buy the dip" bias persists while MTFTI aligns positively. Global bias : Neutral-long — valid as long as 111,900–112,000 holds; invalidation on clean breakdown with sustained volume. Opportunities : — Tactical long/scalp on a confirmed bounce >112,000, add if 112,800 breaks, TP1 = 112,800, TP2 = 113,500. — Small short only if explosive breakdown <111,900 with confirming volume; TP1 = 111,500, TP2 = 111,200. Risk zones / invalidations : Any close below 111,900 without rapid buying flips the bias bearish; failed bullish engulfing/test nullifies the long tactic. Macro catalysts : — Fed begins an easing cycle as US jobs deteriorate/geopolitical risk rises; global liquidity (M2) still provides a tailwind. — Institutional BTC flows ("whale withdrawals", ETFs/funds) build above 115.2k, as long as on-chain base holds. — No major top signal; backdrop remains “risk-on/risk-off” but favors a tactical bounce. Action plan : Enter partial size above 112,000 on valid signal; stop <111,800; TP1 = 112,800, TP2 = 113,500; R/R ≈ 2.5 – scale out at resistance, manage dynamically on confirmation/failure. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ Price reacts tightly at 111,900/112,000, with core structure defended on all major time frames. 1D/12H/6H: Higher timeframes hold structure above 112,000, with liquidations targeting this support. "Buy the dip" playbook intact if level is defended. 4H/2H/1H: Extreme volume concentration and volatility, sellers pressured to exhaust; favor a quick bounce if buying appears immediately. 30min/15min: IGV/SPY (Risk On / Risk Off Indicator) prints "STRONG BUY" and ISPD DIV "BUY" — strong micro support for scalps/short-term longs. Divergences: Confidence for a swing long only resumes after a confirmed reclaim of 112,800; clean break of 111,900 exposes further downside risk. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro context remains tense despite strong global liquidity; absence of massive on-chain outflows remains key. Macro events : US jobs data weaken, geopolitical risks (NATO/Ukraine/Syria) rise, Fed kicks off easing, but all-time high global M2 supports risk assets. Bitcoin institutional flows : Strategic accumulation is visible (whale withdrawals, ETF inflow), no signs of euphoria/top; 115.2k–116k base is the critical pivot for breakout or renewed correction. On-chain data : With 95% of supply in profit >115.2k, on-chain resilience persists unless 111,900 breaks; major vulnerability accompanies loss of this support. Expected impact : 111,900–112,000 offers a prime tactical entry if macro liquidity endures and on-chain flows stay supportive; a fast bounce is plausible. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ The market is caught between violent short-term capitulation and persistent bullish undertones. Despite the intense technical flush, the higher timeframe trend (MTFTI) still favors a tactical long/scalp stance while 111,900–112,000 is defended. The most actionable setup is a rapid rebound from extreme signals, while swing longs require confirmation above 112,800 and macro risk remains high. Robust on-chain support plus global liquidity create a narrow but real window for technical opportunity — but any significant breakdown should prompt defensive positioning. Stay nimble and ready to react to confirmation or risk escalation.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Ox_kali
S&P 500 Index (SPX) Weekly TF – 2025 Chart Context: Tools Used: 3 Fibonacci Tools: 1. One **Fibonacci retracement** (from ATH to bottom) 2. Two **Trend-Based Fibonacci Extensions** * Key Levels and Zones: * **Support Zone** (Fib Confluence): \~4,820–5,100 * **Support Area (shallow pullback)**: \~5,500–5,600 * **Resistance & TP Zones:** * TP1: **6,450** (Fib confluence & -61.8%) * TP2: **6,840** (-27%) * TP3: **7,450–7,760** (Major Confluence) Technical Observations: * SPX is approaching a **critical resistance** near previous ATH (\~6,128) with projected upward trajectory. * The **green dashed path** suggests a rally continuation from current \~6,000 levels to TP1 (\~6,450), TP2 (\~6,840), and eventually TP3 (\~7,450–7,760), IF no major macro shock hits. * The **purple dotted path** suggests a potential retracement first to \~5,600 (shallow correction) or deeper into \~5,120 or even 4,820 zone before continuing the bullish rally. * The major support zone around **4,820–5,120** includes key Fib retracement levels (38.2% and 61.8%) from both extensions and historical breakout levels. Fundamental Context: * US economy shows **resilience** amid soft-landing narrative, though inflation remains sticky. * The **Federal Reserve** is expected to cut rates in **Q3–Q4 2025**, boosting equity valuations. * Liquidity expansion and dovish outlook support risk assets, including **equities and crypto**. * However, **AI-driven tech rally** may be overstretched; a correction could follow earnings disappointments or macro surprises (e.g., jobs or CPI shocks). Narrative Bias & Scenarios: **Scenario 1 – Correction Before Rally (Purple Path)** * If SPX faces macro pushback (e.g., high CPI, hawkish Fed), expect retracement to: * 5,600 = Fib -23.6% zone * 5,120–4,820 = Major Fib Confluence Zone * These would act as **accumulation zones**, setting up next leg up toward TP1 and beyond. * **Effect on Gold**: May rise temporarily due to risk-off move. * **Effect on Crypto**: Could stall or correct, especially altcoins. **Scenario 2 – Straight Rally (Green Path)** * If Fed confirms cuts and macro remains soft: * SPX breaks ATH (\~6,128) * Hits TP1 (\~6,450), TP2 (\~6,840) * Eventually reaches confluence at **TP3 (7,450–7,760)** * **Effect on Gold**: May struggle; investor preference for equities. * **Effect on Crypto**: Strong risk-on appetite, altseason continuation. Indicators Used: * 3 Fibonacci levels (retracement + 2 extensions) * Trendlines (macro and local) * Confluence mapping Philosophical/Narrative Layer: This phase of the market resembles a test of collective confidence. Equity markets nearing ATHs while monetary easing begins reflect a fragile optimism. The Fibonacci levels act as narrative checkpoints — psychological as much as mathematical. Will we rally on faith or fall for rebalancing? Bias & Strategy Implication: Bias: Bullish with caution * Strategy: * Await **confirmation breakout >6,128** for fresh long entries * Accumulate on dips in the **5,100–5,500** zone if correction unfolds * Use **TP1, TP2, TP3** as staged exits Related Reference Charts: * BTC.D Analysis – Bearish Bias: * TOTAL:Bullish Bias *TOTAL3 – Bullish Bias: * US10Y Yield – Falling Bias Impact:https://www.tradingview.com/chart/US10Y/45w6qkWl-US10Y-10-Year-Treasury-Yield-Weekly-TF-2025/
TVC:SPXLong
by BitonGroup
BTC Playbook: Buy Dips >115.2k, Trigger >116,217_________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is coiling just below 116,217 with an underlying uptrend, but nearby supply is capping advances. Buyers keep defending 115,200–115,300, where a rebound printed on very high volumes. Momentum: Moderately bullish 📈 — higher‑timeframe uptrend, but stalled under 116,217 (trigger pivot). Key levels: • Resistances (4H–1D) : 116,217 (240 PH); 117,500–118,000 (6H supply); 124,176 (ATH/720 PH). • Supports (2H–1D) : 115,200–115,300 (240 PL); 114,471 (720 PL); 111,966 (W PH turned support). Volumes: Very high on 30m at 115,208 (absorption), moderate on 1H, normal elsewhere. Multi-timeframe signals: 1D/12H/6H/4H/2H/1H are Up ; 30m rebounding, 15m a bit hesitant — constructive while 115,200–115,300 holds; acceptance above 116,217 opens 117,500–118,000. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator context: NEUTRAL BUY (mild risk‑on), yet it contrasts with a cautious 1D macro regime — warrants smaller size and confirmation. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic stance: primary uptrend intact, but adopt a patient, selective approach until 116,217 is accepted. Global bias: NEUTRAL BUY above 115,200–115,300; key invalidation on confirmed breaks below 114,471 (H1–H2). Opportunities: • Buy the dip : tactical longs at 115,200–115,300 on signal, targeting 115,900/116,217 then 117,500–118,000. • Breakout buy : long on 4H/12H acceptance above 116,217, aiming 117,500–118,000 then 124,176. • Tactical sell : only on repeated failures under 116,217 + loss of 115,208, targeting 114,471 then 113,421 (reduced size, counter‑trend). Risk zones / invalidations: • Below 115,208 : risk of acceleration toward 114,471 (structural damage). • > 116,217 : momentum flips in favor of 117,500–118,000. Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): • Loose financial conditions and equities at/near ATHs — liquidity tailwind. • BLS CPI methodology report delay — near‑term uncertainty. • US spot ETF net inflows slightly positive + fresh USDT issuance — constructive liquidity. Action plan: • Plan A (Breakout) : Entry 116,250–116,350 (retest), Stop 115,900, TP1 116,900, TP2 117,800, TP3 124,000–124,200, R/R ≈ 1:2–1:3. • Plan B (Dip buy) : Entry 115,260–115,360, Stop 115,080–115,100, TP1 115,900, TP2 116,217, TP3 117,500–118,000, R/R ≈ 1:2+. • Plan C (Tactical sell) : Entry 115,150–115,250 (2H < 115,208 + failed pullback), Stop 115,550, TP1 114,480, TP2 113,420, R/R ≈ 1:2.5. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ HTFs remain bullish while LTFs work a tight range just below the trigger. 1D/12H/6H: Up trend with higher lows; 116,217 is the key trigger toward 117,500–118,000 and 124,176. 4H/2H/1H: compression between 115,200–115,300 and 116,217; buy‑the‑dip valid while 115,200 holds and volume confirms. 30m/15m: 30m backed by Very High Volume at 115,208; 15m still cautious — require swift confirmation above 116,000/116,217. Divergences/confluences: risk‑on tilt (Indicator = NEUTRAL BUY) vs cautious 1D macro regime — argues for smaller initial size and persistence on breaks. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro is broadly supportive for risk, yet near‑term uncertainty is rising and may dictate the breakout timing. Macro events: • Fed: loose financial conditions; equities (growth, S&P 500) at/near ATHs — liquidity tailwind. • Labor: unemployment at 4.3% with signs of softening — potential macro volatility. • BLS: key CPI methodology report delayed — added near‑term uncertainty. • ECB/BOJ: mixed ECB messaging; BOJ mulls partial ETF unwind — liquidity watchpoint. Bitcoin analysis: • Price/structure: coil below 124k; post‑FOMC volatility compressed (<3%) — expansion likely on catalyst/flow. • Flows: US ETF volumes back, net flows modestly positive; fresh USDT issuance — constructive backdrop. • Larger holders: accumulation by 100–1,000 BTC wallets; alt rotation debated. On-chain data: • Majority of supply in profit above ~115.2k (key line); elevated option OI into Sept 26 expiry (gamma risk). • Derivatives: squeeze then flush — market re‑balanced. Expected impact: • Liquidity/flows support a constructive bias; above 116,217, odds improve for 117,500–118,000. Sustained loss of 115,208 re‑opens 114,471/113,421. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ Bullish coil under a nearby trigger. - Trend: bullish/NEUTRAL BUY , but requires confirmation above 116,217. - Prime setup: confirmed breakout > 116,217 after firm defenses at 115,200–115,300, targeting 117,500–118,000 then 124,176. - Macro: loose financial conditions but higher uncertainty (BLS, labor) — flow‑driven timing. Focus on acceptance above 116,217 and defense of 115,200–115,300 to calibrate position size. 🧭
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Ox_kali
Bullish compression below 117k: game plan and risks__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ The trend stays bullish but capped by a multi‑TF supply zone, with higher lows supporting the structure. Event‑driven flow (options/witching) may trigger fakeouts around key levels. Momentum: Bullish 📈 yet constrained below 116.9k–117,322; buyers control as long as 116.2k–116.3k holds. Key levels: - Resistances (HTF/ITF): 116,900–117,322 (multi‑TF decision zone); 117,950–118,000 (intraday liquidity); 120,000 (psychological shelf). - Supports (ITF/HTF): 116,200–116,300 (intraday floor); 114,500–114,800 (240/720 pivot cluster); 111,965.8 (weekly support). Volumes: Overall normal; 4H moderate (watch for a volume spike on breakout). Multi-timeframe signals: 1D/12H bullish (MTFTI filter), 6H/4H tactically supportive below 117,322; 15m micro risk‑off → prefer confirmed breakout or buy on support. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: Neutral buy — aligns with momentum, but the 1D macro dashboard remains risk‑off, arguing for patience. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ The dominant stance is cautious‑bullish below resistance; favor pro‑trend executions on confirmed signals. Global bias: Buy‑the‑dip while 116.2k–116.3k holds; key invalidation below 114,787.9. Opportunities: - Breakout buy: daily/4H “break & hold” above 117,322 aiming 118k then 120k. - Pullback buy: 116.2k–116.3k with 1H/2H bullish reaction, add above 117.0k. - Tactical sell (counter‑trend): fade a clean rejection at 116.9k–117.3k, tight stop > 117.6k, targets 116.2k then 114.5k. Risk zones / invalidations: - A break below 114,787.9 invalidates the bullish bias and opens 114,471.7 then 111,965.8. - No close > 117,322 over 2 bars (4H/1D) reduces breakout odds. Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): - Fed: −25 bps; USD still firm → whipsaw risk around witching/rebalancing. - BoJ accommodative and softer oil → lighter inflation pressure, tactical risk support. - Large options expiries ahead → gamma/hedging flows can amplify false breaks. Action plan: - Entry: Buy 116,200–116,350 (confirmed 1H/2H bullish reaction). - Stop: Below 115,950 (1H close). - TP1/TP2/TP3: 117,000 / 117,950–118,000 / 120,000. - R/R approx: ~2.5R / ~5–6R / >10R from a 116.25k core entry. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ HTFs are bullish while LTFs manage a compression under 117,322; the key trigger is a confirmed, high‑volume breakout. 1D/12H/6H: Uptrend compressing below 117,322; 114.5k–114.8k is the buy zone; best setups are clean breakout or controlled dip buys. 4H: Strong if triggered; “break & hold” > 117,322 with rising volume unlocks 118k then 120k. 2H/1H/30m: Range 116.2k–117.3k; watch reactions at 116.2k; 4H moderate volume could catalyze the move. 15m: Mild sell pressure; risk of a support sweep before any trigger — avoid anticipating without confirmation. Major confluence/divergence: Single resistance 116.9k–117,322 across TFs; macro 1D risk‑off vs 4H/6H tailwinds → demand confirmation and volume. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro is mixed: tactical support post‑Fed contrasts with a 1D risk‑off backdrop, while options flows may dominate near‑term action. Macro events: Fed −25 bps (tactically risk‑on), USD still firm (headwind for BTC), cluster of events (quad‑witching, rebalancing, expiries) fosters whipsaws; BoJ easy stance and softer oil ease inflation; persistent geopolitical noise. Bitcoin analysis: Positive ETF inflows and high IBIT volumes back demand; whale withdrawals from institutional venues reduce immediate spot supply — supportive if breakout confirms. On-chain data: ~95% of supply in profit with a key line near ~115.2k; record options OI (~500k BTC) and max pain ~110k for 26 Sep → potential magnets; perp OI stabilized. Expected impact: Setup aligns with a cautious‑long bias, but a move > 117,322 needs a volume spike to avoid a head‑fake. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is bullish but stuck beneath a key multi‑TF resistance. Trend is positive; the most relevant setup is a “break & hold” above 117,322 (or a controlled dip buy at 116.2k–116.3k) with confirming volume. On the macro side, the Fed’s rate cut helps, but options expiries can blur signals. Be patient, trade confirmed triggers, and defend invalidations.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Ox_kali
Compression Below Resistance: Prepare for Post-FOMC BTC Plays__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ Bitcoin is trapped in a volatility compression zone, trading just below key resistance and awaiting the high-stakes FOMC catalyst. The broader context shows contained flows and limited directional momentum: the market is on standby. Momentum: Short-term momentum is neutral to slightly bearish 📉, with price tightly range-bound and no strong buying impulse. All eyes on the macro trigger. Key levels: — Resistances (clustered):  • 116,800–116,814 (240 Pivot High, dominant multi-TF resistance)  • 124,277 (ATH/Daily Pivot High) — Supports :  • 114,800–114,809 (240 Pivot, primary short-term support)  • 113,421 (720 Pivot)  • 111,965 (Weekly Pivot High) Volumes: Volumes are normal across all timeframes, with only a small bump on short-term down moves (30m/15m) — no signs of extreme positioning. Multi-timeframe signals: Medium-term trend remains bullish (MTFTI "Strong Up" on daily/12H), but short-term timeframes (1H–4H–12H) show downward momentum and lack of a decisive volume trigger. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator context: Neutral to sell bias , confirming the absence of strong risk-on flows and supporting a cautious tactical approach. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ The dominant tone is cautious sideways compression — only act on clear breakout or rejection signals at range extremes. Global bias: Short-term neutral to bearish ; invalidated by a clear reclaim and hold above 116,814. Opportunities:  • Buy “breakout” only if price clearly breaks and sustains >116,814 with strong volume (first target 117,300, then 118,400+); invalidate below 114,809.  • Sell on firm break and hold <114,809, adding size if volume rises, targeting 114,000–113,000; invalidate on swift rebound >115,700. Risk zones / invalidations:  • Reclaim and hold >116,814 (with volume) invalidates short bias.  • Breakdown and hold <114,809 across several TFs activates downside. Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news):  • Imminent FOMC decision — options market, volatility compression, and max defensive positioning are the primary drivers.  • ETF flows cooling, Bitcoin dominance declining, risk rotations likely post-FOMC — no strong risk-on evidence yet.  • UK/EU inflation and dovish central banks are background noise, not immediate BTC movers. Action plan:  • on breakout or clean rejection of technical pivots (116,814/114,809).  • below indicated risk line.  • 117,300, 118,400+ in long; 114,000, 113,000 in short.  • R/R ~1.8–2; max initial exposure 12.5%, only scale in with confirmed multi-TF momentum. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ All timeframes show a tense coil: no timeframe provides a clear trend for now, reinforcing a "wait and see" approach. 1D/12H: Medium-term uptrend filter persists (MTFTI “Strong Up”), but near-term momentum repeatedly stalls below 116,814–116,800, with no volume breakthrough. 6H/4H/2H/1H: Tightly coiled range, anchored at 114,809; loss would open up liquidity tests down to 113,421–114,000. 30m/15m: Volume picks up on short-term declines; only a fleeting “risk-on” flash on 15m (no follow-through to higher TFs). Major divergences: Isolated 6H “Strong Buy” on equity isn’t confirmed at the market level, making any bounce fragile. 15m “risk-on” flashes lack multi-TF confirmation. Key invalidation/pivot levels are well aligned across TFs — critical for reactivity when the move comes. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro and on-chain forces both encourage patience, with the FOMC outcome set to trigger the next major move. Macro events:  • in focus, strong rate cut expectations and options market tension dominate — clear primary driver.  • BoC goes dovish, UK/EU inflation tensions, but no direct “risk-on” signals across global macro.  • ETF flows tepid, specific post-FOMC asset rotation will be key. Bitcoin analysis:  • Bitcoin consolidates ~6.8% below ATH, inside technical “cloud” — price activity is all about risk management (options, ETF).  • On-chain support ~110k–114k solid, resistance 115.8k–116.8k, tightly aligned with technical levels. On-chain data:  • ETF inflows dormant, derivatives lead price action, no clear sign of euphoria or capitulation; on-chain support >108k remains robust.  • Overall attitude is defensive, “wait for the catalyst” mode. Expected impact:  • The FOMC’s reaction will drive the technical breakout or breakdown; only a clear confirmation will unlock decisive follow-through beyond the current coil. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ Bitcoin remains trapped in a compression phase under key resistance, on high alert going into the FOMC. The overall trend is short-term neutral to bearish, with all bullish setups hinged on a confirmed pivot breakout above 116,814. The highest-conviction play is to let the FOMC be the trigger: position with the move, not before. Macro dominance means no reason to anticipate a risk-on rotation until confirmation. Keep your edge: wait for multi-TF signals and volume confluence, and manage exposure tightly — false breakouts and volatility traps are the enemy heading into this macro event!
by Ox_kali