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BTC Breakout: 119,800 to clear, 123,218 in sight__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ Momentum: 📊 Consolidation range below 119,800–123,218, primary trend still 📈 bullish; buyers defending 116,100–114,723. Key levels (TF): - Resistances: 117,800–118,600 (6H/4H supply); 119,800 (720 PH); 123,218 (D Pivot High). - Supports: 116,100 (6H/2H); 115,720 (240 PH); 114,723 (D Pivot Low); 112,600 (240 PL); 111,980 / 98,200 (W Pivots). Volumes: Normal across TF → no “Extreme Volumes” (need confirmation on breakouts). Multi-timeframe signals: HTF 1D/12H/6H/4H = Up; 2H = Down; 30m ISPD = Sell (LTF divergence). Risk On / Risk Off Indicator context: Neutral → no sector-wide directional bias. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ Global bias : Slightly 📈 bullish above 115,720/114,723; swing invalidation on a close < 114,723. Opportunities: - Buy pullback 116,100–115,700 toward 117,800/118,600/119,800. - Bullish breakout: acceptance 1D/12H > 119,800 → target 123,218. - Tactical short: clean rejection 117,800–118,600 while 2H = Down and 30m ISPD = Sell. Risk zones / invalidations: - Intraday longs: close < 115,700. - Swing longs: close < 114,723 (risk 112,600 → 111,980). - Shorts: LTF close > 118,600; structural: acceptance > 119,800. Macro catalysts (Twitter/News): - US pro‑crypto tilt (debanking review, retirement/PE/crypto access, Fed nominee) → sentiment tailwind. - Softer USD (BOE hawkish cut, Fed pick) → positive for risk/BTC. - US rates (30Y auction, yields) → a yield spike would weigh on breakouts. Action plan: - Pullback Buy: Entry 115,900; Stop 114,650; TP1 117,800, TP2 118,600, TP3 119,800 → R/R ~2.0–2.8. - Breakout Setup: Enter on RP 119,800–119,400 after 1D/12H close > 119,800 + volume; Stop 118,500; TP1 121,800, TP2 123,200, TP3 (runner) → R/R ≥2.0. - Tactical Short: Entry 118,200; Stop 118,700; TP1 116,600, TP2 116,100, TP3 115,700 → R/R ~1.6–2.5. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ 1D/12H/6H/4H (Up): Bullish structure consolidating below 119,800; support cluster 115,720–114,723 holding; key setups = buy pullbacks + confirmed breakout > 119,800 toward 123,218. 2H (Down): Lower highs below 118,000; 117,800–118,600 supply favors tactical fades; needs flip > 118,600 to push 119,800. 1H/30m/15m (Up, with 30m ISPD = Sell): Sub‑range 116,100–117,900; buy scalps at 116,400/116,100; caution buying into 117,900–118,600 (rejection risk). Key divergences: HTF Up vs 2H Down + 30m ISPD Sell → higher odds of false breaks below 118,600/119,800. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro events: - US pro‑crypto stance (debanking review, retirement/PE/crypto access, Fed nominee) → better access/regulatory tone (Twitter sources). - Gold tariffs/repricing narrative → reinforces “digital gold”. - Softer USD and easing inflation impulses → support risk; watch long-end yields. Bitcoin analysis: - Technical: testing the upper bound of a rising wedge, momentum improving. - Institutional/access: treasury/banking initiatives may support participation. - Energy/valuation: Bitcoin Energy Value ~145,000 vs spot ~116,000 → implied discount. On-chain data: - Post‑ATH indecision; “air gap” 110,000–116,000. - STH in profit ~70% → fresh demand needed. - ETFs: ~−1,500 BTC outflow recently (risk if it persists). - Funding <0.1% → moderate leverage, less immediate squeeze. - On‑chain pivot ≈ 116,900 to reclaim; 119,800 critical for confirmation. Expected impact: - Friendlier macro + balanced on‑chain favor a cautiously bullish technical bias, but confirmation requires acceptance above 119,800 with volume. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ - Overall bias: cautiously 📈 bullish in a range; buy dips at 116,100–115,700; swing invalidation below 114,723. - Top setup: confirmed breakout > 119,800 with volume to target 123,218; otherwise fade 117,800–118,600. - Macro: US pro‑crypto tone and softer USD support BTC, but monitor UST yields.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Ox_kali
BTC – Breakout Loading?Bitcoin continues to respect its macro bullish trend (🟠), trading within a large ascending channel that has guided price action for over a year. After breaking above the previous ATH 🟢, BTC entered a correction phase 🔻, retesting the green zone — a key structure now acting as support. The bulls stepped back in, initiating a new impulse phase 🔵. Currently, BTC is consolidating within a small blue descending channel — forming a classic bullish flag 🏁 pattern. ⚠️ For the bulls to take over and trigger the next impulsive wave toward $140,000 🎯, we need to see a confirmed break above this small blue channel. This would signal trend continuation and open the door to the upper boundary of the macro channel. ✅ Key levels to watch: - Support: ~$110,000 (green demand zone) 🟩 - Resistance: Top of the blue flag 🟦 - Target: $140,000 💰 A breakout from here could fuel the next major rally — stay sharp and follow the trend! 💬 What’s your bias here? Are you bullish or waiting for a deeper pullback? 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
Long
by TheSignalyst
20
BTC Support Tested, Mixed Cross-TF Signals, Tactical Caution__________________________________________________________________________________ Technical Overview – Summary Points __________________________________________________________________________________ Momentum & context: Bullish bias confirmed on higher timeframes (1D/4H), but bearish divergences appearing from 2H downward. Major support/resistance: 114,600–115,000 and 114,667 hold as the critical zone. Key resistance: 116,900–117,000 must break for a bullish trigger. Volume: Normal on HTF. Very high volumes detected on 30min/15min during the 116,000+ resistance test (climax/reversal risk). Multi-timeframe behavior: Risk On / Risk Off Indicator = “Strong Buy” from 1D to 1H, short-term sellers active below 2H (ISPD = Sell on 15min). __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic Summary __________________________________________________________________________________ Overall bias: Bullish structure preserved, but fragility evident on intraday. Opportunities: Tactical buys possible on 114,600–115,000 (stop <114,000) or strong breakout above 116,900. Risk: Clear break below 114,000 = risk of drop to 110,000. Volume climax/ISPD Sell below resistance = profit taking advised. Macro catalysts: Ongoing geopolitical news (US/Russia/China), volatility during US announcements; post-Fed digestion. Action plan: Strict monitoring of ETF flows/funding/US news. Cautious accumulation on daily/4H, short-term shorts only if confirmed by lower timeframe signals. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Analysis __________________________________________________________________________________ 1D: Strong upward bias, price at major support, calm volume. 12H/6H/4H: Robust sectorial momentum (Risk On / Risk Off Indicator “Strong Buy”), daily/4H supports holding, initial bearish signs on 2H/1H. 2H/1H: Growing fragility: “Down” trend confirmed on 2H, momentum loss, buyer exhaustion visible. 30min/15min: Very high volumes under resistance, ISPD Sell 15min: short-term correction alert. Overbought microstructure, trigger risk if rejection at 116,000–116,250. Cross-TF summary: Market mostly “Up”, but tactical vigilance around supports, increased caution above 116,000. Summary: - Bullish structure maintained on daily/4H, but top/reversal warning signals on brief lowest TFs (15/30min). - 114,600–115,000 pivot zone is decisive: holding = increased stabilization/accumulation probability; break = risk of extension down to 110,000. - Active monitoring of ETF flows/funding/news is essential. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & Bitcoin Analysis (Twitter Summary) __________________________________________________________________________________ Geopolitical risks remain high, US/China protectionism & Fed on hold: crypto market in wait-and-see mode. BTC broke 116k, entered low-liquidity zone; rebound remains “fragile.” ETF flows: moderate return to buying, funding neutral. Possible post-pullback accumulation signal, but needs confirmation. Strategy: swing buy on defended/major supports, strict management if short-term seller signals (volume/ISPD). __________________________________________________________________________________ Action Steps __________________________________________________________________________________ Buy on 114,600–115,000 zone if confirmed by daily/4H, stop loss <114,000. Re-buy or more aggressive swing on clear breakout above 116,900–117,000. Take profits/short if clear rejection 116,000+ with volume climax/ISPD Sell. Monitor macro (US events), ETF flows, funding rate, volume behavior.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Ox_kali
Bullish momentum holds, 111-113k breakdown will be decisive__________________________________________________________________________________ Technical Overview – Summary Points __________________________________________________________________________________ Momentum: Structurally bullish bias on HTF (1D/12H/6H/4H) confirmed by Risk On / Risk Off Indicator showing consistent “Strong Buy” signal. Technical consolidation on LTF (2H→15min) with emerging selling pressure. Supports / Resistances: Major supports: 1D/weekly at 111-115k. Dense resistance between 116.9-119k. Structure remains valid if price holds >111k. Volume: Normal on HTF; episodes of extreme spikes on 30min-15min indicating possible liquidations/flush but no widespread capitulation. Multi-TF behavior: No panic in HTF; LTF selling pressure looks more like leveraged exhaustion than a lasting bearish reversal. __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic Summary __________________________________________________________________________________ Global bias: Bullish (HTF). Holding support at 111-113k is the key condition to favor accumulation. Opportunities: Tactical accumulation ≥111k, watch for breakout >117-119k, intraday scalps on LTF volume extremes. Risk zones: Breakdown <111k = risk of fast flush towards 107-110k; rejection below 116.9-119k = potential bull trap. Macro catalysts: Awaiting Fed decision (September), increased volatility around calendar events, global liquidity at highs, geopolitics on watch. Action plan: Accumulate on major supports, confirm bullish leg on break >117-119k with volume, swing stop-loss <110k. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Analysis __________________________________________________________________________________ 1D: Uptrend structure active, weekly/daily support 114-115k, Risk On / Risk Off Indicator bullish. Healthy consolidation below old resistance ≥119k. 12H/6H/4H: Trend Up, strong range zone, sector momentum steady, no sell stress. 2H/1H: Intermediate consolidation/selling pressure. Downtrend confirmed on 1H/2H, but volume controlled. 30min/15min: Very high volumes, ISPD DIV sell signal (15min), probable distribution/exhaustion. 111-113k key support = front-line to monitor. Summary: Bullish structural alignment on HTF, consolidation/profit-taking on LTF but no major breakdown of key supports. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Analysis (Technical x Fundamental) __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro: Expected Fed pivot (Sept), global liquidity at ATH, geopolitics remain uncertain but stable, weaker dollar. BTC on-chain: Accumulation in 110-115k area, ETF outflows, no STH stress, reclaim 116.9-119k resistance is crucial for bullish reversal. Calendar: Fed/FOMC 30/07 (pause expected), US earnings & oil data 06/08. Watch for surprise events. R/R: Favorable long ≥111k; break >119k = validation, short on failure at 116.9-119k if support lost, swing stop <110k. __________________________________________________________________________________ Actionable Synthesis __________________________________________________________________________________ Swing bias: Favor tactical accumulation or active management as long as support ≥111k holds and Risk On / Risk Off Indicator remains “Strong Buy”. LTF = trading ground, HTF = maintain core positioning. Heightened vigilance at 116.9-119k: Potential trap/breakout activation zone. Watch liquidity on pullbacks and during volume “climax”. Stay agile, adjust stops tactically according to intraday volatility and price reaction at key support levels. __________________________________________________________________________________
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Ox_kali
Bear trap on its way - Bitcoin Weekly Update August 4-10thThis week brings a series of macroeconomic and geopolitical developments that may influence global risk sentiment and, consequently, Bitcoin’s price trajectory. On Monday, the U.S. releases Factory Orders, a key indicator of industrial demand. Surprises in this data can affect risk assets broadly, as they reflect business investment activity. Weak numbers would likely increase expectations of monetary easing, which tends to support Bitcoin. On Tuesday, the spotlight turns to the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, a leading indicator for the U.S. services sector, which accounts for roughly 70% of GDP. A significant deviation from expectations—especially a decline—could reinforce rate-cut expectations and provide tailwinds for speculative assets like Bitcoin. Thursday is a critical day, with the Bank of England's interest rate decision in focus. While direct effects on crypto are limited, a hawkish stance could weigh on global risk appetite if inflation concerns resurface. Also on Thursday, the U.S. releases its weekly Initial Jobless Claims—a timely barometer of labor market strength. A rising trend here would suggest economic cooling, strengthening the case for looser policy and potentially benefiting crypto. However, the most geopolitically sensitive event this week is the reintroduction of country-specific reciprocal tariffs by the United States, taking effect on August 7. Affected countries include Canada (35%), Mexico (30%), and Brazil (50%). These measures could re-escalate trade tensions and trigger short-term market volatility. Retaliatory responses from these countries would likely fuel risk-off sentiment, pressuring assets across the board. From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin remains within a multi-degree corrective structure according to the Elliott Wave framework. On the cycle degree, we are in a B-wave; on the primary degree, in an A-wave; on the intermediate degree, in a B-wave; and on the minor degree, in a C-wave. This implies that a short-term move lower is still expected, but once complete, a relief rally of approximately 4% could follow before the onset of a larger correction, likely Primary Wave B. Chart structure suggests that Minor Wave C is in its late stages. Early signs of exhaustion, such as waning downside momentum or bullish reaction at key support zones, could offer clues of an approaching bottom. However, such a rebound should be viewed as temporary and not a trend reversal. Taking a view between the lines on the on-chain data, the liquidity heatmap shows major liquidity around the red rectangle drawn into the chart, suggesting higher prices. Also, the rather low funding rate on futures suggest an exhausted downward trend and a trend reversal in the near future is likely. Conclusion: This week’s calendar offers several macroeconomic catalysts with the potential to move markets. U.S. economic data and tariff policy developments will likely shape near-term sentiment. Technically, Bitcoin remains in a corrective phase with limited downside left before a short-term recovery becomes more probable. Traders should stay alert for signs of a local bottom to position for a tactical bounce—but be cautious, as a larger correction likely looms beyond that. This is no financial advice and for educational purposes only.
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by Phillipklh
Trend Intact, Short-Term Caution, Monitor the 114k Area Closely__________________________________________________________________________________ Technical Overview – Summary Points ➤ Dominant bullish momentum on higher timeframes (6H, 12H, 1D) with ongoing consolidation; clear short-term bearish divergence on intraday (2H, 1H, 30min, 15min). Key supports: 114,723 (D Pivot Low), 111,980 (W Pivot High) – essential zones for action/monitoring. Critical resistances: 115,720–119,000, ultimate top at 122,318. Normal volumes, no aggressive accumulation/distribution observed. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: “Strong Buy” in trend, neutral short term. ISPD DIV/investor satisfaction neutral: No excess or behavioral anomalies. Structural resilience but no strong short-term catalyst; awaiting a trigger from volume spike or macro reaction. __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic Summary ➤ Global bias: mid/long-term bullish, short-term caution. Opportunities: tactical buys on 114,723–111,980, underweight before US ISM/PMI (expected volatility window). Risk areas: a clear break below 111,980 = increased correction risk down to 107,500–110,000. Catalysts: US ISM/PMI, ETF flows, extreme volume, Risk On / Risk Off Indicator reaction. Action plan: Buy on strong support reaction (confirmation price action, tight stop <111,000) If no volume flow, prefer strategic waiting until macro announcements/exceptional volume Monitor volume anomalies, ETF flows, ISPD DIV extreme zone returns __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Analysis ➤ 1D to 6H: Robust bullish trend, all major technical supports intact, Risk On / Risk Off Indicator “Strong Buy”. Volumes contained, no behavioral red flags. 2H, 1H, 30min, 15min: Clear bearish divergence via MTFTI (“Down”), no directional buyer flow, Risk On / Risk Off Indicator neutral. Summary: Main scenario = consolidation/intermediate correction under resistance; actionable setups on clear support/equilibrium reactions (confirmation price action). Fundamental side: macro stress tests absorbed, structurally healthy market, no major capitulation. Key catalyst to watch: Post-US PMI/ISM reaction and ETF flows. Any major inflection below 114k–111k = immediate defensive management. __________________________________________________________________________________
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Ox_kali
Multi-Timeframe: Range, Accumulation Opportunity on Pullbacks__________________________________________________________________________________ Technical Overview – Summary Points __________________________________________________________________________________ Overall Momentum: Dominant bullish trend above 4H. Short-term momentum shifts bearish on 2H/1H/30min, warrants caution. Key Supports: 114,000 USDT (short term), 111,900 USDT (major pivot), 98,200 USDT (structural failure if lost). Critical Resistances: 115,900 / 118,900 / 119,900 USDT, daily pivot high 122,318 USDT. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: Bullish confirmation on most higher timeframes. ISPD DIV: Behavioural indicators neutral across all frames, no extreme signals (no panic or euphoria). Volume: Normal overall, with isolated yellow bars signaling recent volatility spikes. Multi-timeframe: Higher timeframes (1D, 12H, 6H, 4H) remain bullish. Lower timeframes (2H, 1H, 30min, 15min) show short-term downside momentum without systemic panic. __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic Summary __________________________________________________________________________________ Main Bias: Bullish structure so long as 111,900 USDT holds. “Buy-the-dip” on pullbacks, tactical range approach below 115,900 USDT. Opportunities: Scalping on key supports (113,000–114,000 USDT), accumulation on deep test of 111,900 USDT, adaptive exits at major resistances. Risks Zones: Clear break of 111,900 USDT opens the way to a deeper corrective move, potentially to 105,000–110,000 USDT. Macro Catalysts: FED on hold, ETF outflows, ongoing geo/trade war risks, US job stats uncertainties; to be monitored. Action Plan: Adjust position size to intraday volatility, strict stop-loss below 111,800 USDT, firm monitoring of ETF flows, on-chain trends, and Risk On / Risk Off Indicator . __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Analysis __________________________________________________________________________________ 1D - Daily: Bullish trend until 111,900 USDT fails on close. Volume and behaviourals neutral. 12H / 6H / 4H: Range trading dominant. Pivots cluster in 114,700–116,000 USDT. 2H / 1H: Short-term bearish bias (MTFTI Down), increased risk of flush below 113,000 USDT; patience required for exhaustion or seller reversal. 30min / 15min: Volatility up, no behavioural extremes detected. Key watch on breaks below 113,000 USDT. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: Confirms bullish bias on higher frames (>4H), momentary loss of bullish momentum on short-term (30min–2H). Summary: 111,900 USDT is the prime protection node; above = bullish. Below = risk of corrective extension. No current panic detected. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & Bitcoin – Twitter Synthesis & Fundamental Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro: Mixed global sentiment, ongoing US-China trade tensions, persistent geopolitical volatility, equities and crypto under pressure but no systemic break yet. FED in wait-and-see, next big pivot in September. BTC: Technical & on-chain accumulation at major supports, ETF outflows by retail but institutional accumulation, significant liquidations but no outright panic. On-chain: 97% of BTC supply in profit, risk of distribution on overextended rallies, STH cost basis support intact ($105–117k zone). Strategy: Base scenario = buy deep pullbacks, exit prudently at resistance, monitor ETF flows & macro headlines for tactical adjustment. __________________________________________________________________________________ Practical Conclusion & Recommendations __________________________________________________________________________________ Underlying trend remains bullish, extension likely if 111,900 USDT holds. Monitor: volume/sell capitulation, Risk On / Risk Off Indicator, ETF flows. Maintain strict risk management, adapt tactics to range volatility. Avoid excessive leverage, keep tactical intraday flexibility as microstructure is volatile. __________________________________________________________________________________
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Ox_kali
Swing opportunity on cluster support, technical & macro plan__________________________________________________________________________________ Technical Overview – Summary Points __________________________________________________________________________________ Momentum : Tech sector bias supportive on higher timeframes (Risk On / Risk Off Indicator “Buy” on 1D/12H) despite MTFTI “Down” on intraday (15min to 6H). Key Supports : Major cluster at 111,900–112,772 (W Pivot High, 12H/24H Pivot Low). Critical defense short/mid term. Resistances : 114,723, then 115,900, then 119,800–122,318 (break to relaunch impulse). Volumes : Moderate to normal across all timeframes: no panic or capitulation. Multi-TF Behaviour : ISPD DIV neutral everywhere: neither fear nor euphoria; wait-and-see market. No climax nor emotional extremes: conducive to squeeze or extension after catalyst. __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic Summary __________________________________________________________________________________ Global Bias : Neutral to cautious bullish if 111,900–112,772 holds (invalidate if <111,900). Opportunities : Defensive swing long entries on support. Gradual targets: 114,723, 115,900, 119,800–122,318. Risks : Daily/4H close below 111,900 = acceleration towards $110k/$105k (on-chain air-gap). Macro Catalysts : Geopolitical tensions (Gaza/Ukraine/China), China crypto ban headlines, sector decoupling, Fed/BoE policy. Action Plan : Strict stop management (<111,750), agile on volume/ISPD signals. Critical macro monitoring: any exogenous move can trigger directional volatility. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Analysis __________________________________________________________________________________ 1D (Daily) : Key support 114,723.2. Tech sector indicator (Risk On / Risk Off Indicator) bullish. MTFTI Up. Normal volume, no panic. Lack of ISPD oversold signal. 12H : Support W Pivot High 111,900 – 12H Pivot Low 111,920. Uptrend, moderately higher volumes, ISPD neutral. Battling for support maintenance and bounce. 6H : Core pivot support 111,900–112,000. MTFTI Down. No volume excess or sentiment signal. End of momentum, increase vigilance. 4H : Weakness confirmed, supports 112,000–112,500, resistance 117,722 to 119,800. Last short-term rampart tested. 2H-1H : Bearish, attacks on 111,900–112,772 supports, immediate resistance at 114,723/115,900. Weak range market. 30min-15min : Neutral, lower range between supports (111,900–112,772) and resistances (113,950–114,723). Volatility on breakout events, no sector bias. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator : Persistent “Buy” on higher timeframes (12H/1D), neutral/bearish intraday (4H and below). ISPD DIV : No extremes detected: no exhaustion, panic or major oversold; “range” environment. Volumes : Normal, no climax or anomaly. Market awaiting a catalyst. __________________________________________________________________________________ Fundamental, Macro Events, Sentiment Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro : Newsflow on China crypto ban, multiple tensions (Gaza, Russia-Ukraine), Fed/BoE slowing. Globally cautious setting despite no direct institutional shock. On-chain (Glassnode) : Major OTC sale (~80k BTC) absorbed, 97% supply in profit: “moderate euphoria” phase, not capitulation; on-chain supports $110–117k, resistance $125–141k, air-gap below $115k. Twitter : No panic, “final wick” narrative then anticipated technical rebound. No institutional outflows. China ban read as cyclical FUD. __________________________________________________________________________________ Summary & Action Plan __________________________________________________________________________________ Support 111,900–112,772 = key multi-TF cluster; area for defensive swing opportunity. MTFTI is “Down” on lower TF, but Risk On / Risk Off Indicator bullish on daily/12H. No capitulation, normal volume, market waiting for catalyst. Swing bullish invalidated below 111,900—stop required, R/R 1:2 minimum. Fast reclaim above 114,723 plus strong upside volume: short squeeze & potential extension to 119,800–122,318. Macro monitoring essential (China ban, monetary policy, geopolitics). __________________________________________________________________________________ Operational Summary : Favor defensive swing long plans on multi-TF cluster support (111,900–112,772), strict stop <111,750, progressive TPs to 114,723/115,900/119,800. Stay opportunistic: bias cautiously bullish but risk management is paramount in a cautious global environment and with no strong extremes detected. __________________________________________________________________________________
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Ox_kali
Bitcoin Facing Macro Volatility: Key Supports Hold Firm__________________________________________________________________________________ Technical Overview – Summary Points __________________________________________________________________________________ Momentum: Dominant bullish bias on higher timeframes (1D to 2H). Key Supports/Resistances: Key pivot zone at 114.7K–115.8K defended across all timeframes; major resistances at 119.7K, upside extension to 122.3K. Volume: Peaks on breakout, normal to high volumes depending on TF, no signs of seller capitulation. Behavioral Indicators: Risk On / Risk Off Indicator remains strong on all strategic TFs; ISPD DIV neutral except for a defensive buy signal on 1H. Multi-timeframe summary: Broad horizontal consolidation, no panic or euphoria detected. Major supports overlap, confirming structural strength amid macro volatility. __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic Summary __________________________________________________________________________________ Overall bias: Bullish above 114.7K; neutral/slightly bearish below this key level. Opportunities: Longs via scalping/range trading on reactions at 114.7–115.8K; swing accumulation on daily/4H stabilization above 115K. Risk: Break below <114.7K, macro volatility around NFP/PMI, false breakouts. Macro catalysts: Expanded US tariffs (Trump), NFP, PMI, Fed status. Action plan: Reactivity on pivots, reduce exposure during macro events, hard stops <114.5K H4. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Analysis __________________________________________________________________________________ 1D: Working the 114723 pivot support. Bullish momentum, no excessive selling, Risk On / Risk Off Indicator “STRONG BUY”. 12H-6H: Building a bottom on the daily base; sustained volumes during sell-off, no panic, technical buy signals emerging. 4H-1H: Vigorous support defense, 1H ISPD DIV “buy” signal. Healthy range pattern; volumes up during rebound attempts. 30min-15min: Slow recovery after high-volume drop, no euphoria or capitulation. No “trap” or imminent squeeze, favorable for tactical trades. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: Higher TFs (1W/1D/12H/4H) show strong bullish signals, boosting risk confidence. Decorrelation with lower TFs allows flexible management, controlled accumulation, tight stops at 114.7K. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & BTC Context Summary (Twitter) __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro: US tariff shock, max volatility likely, amplified moves in equities and crypto. Bitcoin: Sharp correction post-record close, but solid supports remain, no sign of trend end. Integration: Technical status quo; favor defensive accumulation, caution on NFP/PMI. __________________________________________________________________________________ Actionable Synthesis: Plan & Risk Management __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategies: Longs/scalp >114.7K; swing/accumulate post daily/4H confirmation; partial TPs near 119.7K/122.3K. Risk Zones: Hard stop <114.5K. Tight monitoring around NFP for volatility spikes. Reward: Risk-to-reward >2 if buying lower range with strict stops. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Macro Events to Watch __________________________________________________________________________________ 2025-08-01: US NFP, unemployment, hourly wages – High volatility expected, possible swings 2025-08-01: ISM Manufacturing PMI – Short-term trend confirmation or invalidation 2025-07-30: FED conference – Range-bound / Moderate volatility US Tariffs (Trump) – Global risk-off, caution BTC & tech __________________________________________________________________________________ Conclusion __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC consolidates steadily between 114.7K–122.3K despite macro shocks Daily/H4 supports robust, Risk On / Risk Off Indicator strong on higher TFs Accumulation/scalping favored as long as supports defended Main risk = break of 114.7K, imminent macro volatility
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Ox_kali
BTC analysis, supports 116k, targets 122k, caution below 115.9k__________________________________________________________________________________ Technical Overview – Summary Points __________________________________________________________________________________ Bullish momentum confirmed on all timeframes (1D to 1H). Key supports: 115,960 / 117,423 / 117,700. Main resistances: 119,573–119,800–122,318. Volumes overall normal to moderately high, no climax. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: strong buy signal for all higher TFs, neutral on 30m/15m (momentary exhaustion). ISPD DIV neutral across all frames, no extreme or behavioral signals. MTFTI trend: up / strong up across the board. __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic Summary __________________________________________________________________________________ Main bias: confirmed bullish, high-range maintained between 116k–122k. Opportunities: buy on validated pullbacks between 116k–117.7k, take partial profits under 119.5k–122k. Risk areas: sharp downside below 115,960 with potential extension to 112k/110k. Macro catalysts: PCE (slightly above consensus), Fed on hold, moderate volatility. No negative crypto catalyst in sight. Action plan: Tactical stop-loss below 115,960, defensive management within range. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Analysis __________________________________________________________________________________ 1D – Support: 115,960 (Pivot Low), Resistance: 119,573–122,318. Strong momentum, resistance clusters. 12H/6H/4H – Bullish structure, moderate volume participation, consolidation under major resistance, pullbacks defended. 2H/1H – Compression between pivots, patience before breakout or support retest. 30m/15m – Tight consolidation, Up momentum but neutral behavioral signals, compression pre-move. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator : Strong buy on all TFs except intraday, neutrality on 30m/15m (temporary stall). ISPD DIV : No euphoria/fear, median persistent zone. Volumes slightly above average, healthy structure. Summary: Technical and fundamental confluence, upper range maintained, no reversal signals present. __________________________________________________________________________________ Summary and Strategic Plan __________________________________________________________________________________ Main bias: confirmed bullish on all frames, but increased caution above 122k. Plan: tactical buy only on validated pullback/price action, defensive profit-taking near resistance. Stop-loss below 115,960. Major invalidation under this threshold (low liquidity area). Monitor reactions to upcoming macro events (PCE/Fed) and any escalation in geopolitics. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro/Fundamentals & On-chain __________________________________________________________________________________ US Macro: PCE YoY above forecast (2.6% vs 2.5%), Fed on hold, USD under pressure. No systemic negative crypto alerts. IMF to classify BTC as “national wealth” from 2026. On-chain: Large liquidity test absorbed, 97% of BTC supply in profit, network consolidation in 117k–122k. Specific risk on break <115k: potential acceleration towards 110k. __________________________________________________________________________________ Summary: BTC/USDT is in a structural range 116k–122k with a dominant bullish bias, supported by technicals, strong macro and on-chain content. Accumulating at supports and defensive sells near resistance remain optimal until confirmation of a directional breakout. Suggested stop-loss: <115,960. Moderate risk until the next major macro/event catalysts. __________________________________________________________________________________
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Ox_kali
BTC – Pre-FOMC consolidation, bullish momentum, key zones__________________________________________________________________________________ Technical Overview – Summary Points __________________________________________________________________________________ Momentum : Primary uptrend confirmed on all swing timeframes (daily to 1H). Active consolidation below major resistance (119650–120247), no capitulation or massive selling signals at this stage. Major Supports / Resistances : Main Supports: 116950, then 114732. Structural invalidation if daily close below 114K or low <110K. Key Resistances: 119650–120247 (recent block), then 123218. Clean breakout >125K targets next stat zone at 141K. Volumes : Transactional flows remain healthy, no anomalies or distribution events; normal volumes with a few impulsive bursts. No panic or selling climax detected. Multi-timeframe behavior : Uptrend alignment from 1D to 2H; short-term divergence (MTFTI “Down” on 30m/15m/5m) indicates only breath/consolidation pre-macro event (FOMC). __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic Summary __________________________________________________________________________________ Global Bias : Medium/long-term bullish bias, confirmed, with no behavioral excess or visible structural weakness. Opportunities : Pullbacks to major supports (116950–114732) offer strategic accumulation. Potential for adding exposure on clear breakout above 125K with volume confirmation. Risk Areas : Post-FOMC flushes, anticipated high volatility until Thursday morning, $115–123K range still active. Tactical stop loss below 114.5K, structural recalibration <110K. Macro Catalysts : FOMC tonight (20:00 Paris): status quo expected, but markets highly sensitive to Powell’s statement. Widened spreads, max volatility expected within the following 2 hours. Action Plan : Favor patience on breakout, accumulate on retracement, keep stops disciplined. Avoid aggressive scalping until post-FOMC volatility peak fades. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Analysis __________________________________________________________________________________ 1D (Daily): Uptrend confirmed up to dense resistance zone 119800–123200. Solid momentum, no excess on Risk On / Risk Off Indicator or volume. Key Supports: 116950, 114732. 12H/6H/4H: Structured consolidation below 120247–119650. No behavioral warnings; markets strong, healthy liquidity. Accumulation-distribution rhythm without extremes. 2H/1H: Sideways, no sell-off or euphoria; potential consolidation before breakout. Major supports unchanged. 30min/15min: Noticeable short-term divergence (“Down”). Micro bearish setup, possible loss of short-term momentum before FOMC. Summary: Broadly bullish swing trend with consolidation below resistance, reinforcement possible on breakout; short term fragile until macro moves (Fed) are digested. Patience is key ahead of FOMC: prioritize accumulation on major pullback, keep stops disciplined, and avoid intraday over-trading unless clear exhaustion signals emerge. __________________________________________________________________________________ Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: Strong Buy from 1D to 1H, intact sector support, positive structural bias. ISPD DIV: Neutral across all timeframes: no excess, no behavioral climax. On-chain/macro: 97% of holders still in profit; market absorbed stress test ($9B sell-off); only moderate euphoria, consistent with late bull phase but not exhausted. Swing validation if >125K. Tactical stop <114.5K; full capitulation <110K. __________________________________________________________________________________
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Ox_kali
Multi-timeframe analysis, strong momentum, FOMC risk/reward plan__________________________________________________________________________________ Technical Overview – Summary Points __________________________________________________________________________________ Strong momentum and bullish consensus confirmed across all timeframes. Key support/resistance : 114k–116k (critical support), 123k (major pivot). Healthy organic volume , no extreme peaks except isolated moments (30min/15min). Risk On / Risk Off Indicator : Dominant bullish signal, neutral only on 15min. Multi-timeframe structure : Perfect alignment daily/4H/2H/1H, caution on 15/30min (slight inflection but no abnormal divergence). __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic Summary __________________________________________________________________________________ Global bias : Structural bull market, intact dynamic. Opportunities : Tactical buys on pullbacks (114–116k), swing on breakout 123k. Risk areas : Below 114k = risk of invalidation, targets 111k–105k. Macro catalysts : FOMC imminent (high volatility expected), watch geopolitical tensions. Action plan : Favor swing/cautious trading ahead of FOMC, dynamic stops, act on first post-Powell trigger. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Analysis __________________________________________________________________________________ 1D : Active range 114k–123k; strong supports, momentum maintained; Risk On / Risk Off Indicator strongly bullish. 12H/6H/4H : Clean bullish structure, no excesses or divergence; price sits within major horizontal clusters. 2H/1H : Healthy impulse/correction phases; key intermediate supports 114.6k, 117.5k to watch. 30min/15min : Slightly weaker momentum but constructive microstructure, no immediate sell threat; localized volume spikes on support reactions. ISPD DIV : No behavioral stress observed throughout. Cross-timeframe summary : Bullish confluence dominant; caution on short-term reversals tied to FOMC and on-chain volatility spikes. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-timeframe Cross Analysis & Decisional Rationale __________________________________________________________________________________ As long as BTC > 114k = bullish bias, buying pullbacks, swing target 123k. Active management post-FOMC strongly advised (enter/reduce after first H4 close). Increased volatility risk in case of Fed/geopolitical shock; mandatory stops. Sector momentum (Risk On / Risk Off Indicator) and volume underpin the bullish case unless exogenous alert. Invalidation below 114k = prudent, neutral, or tactical shorts towards 111k–105k. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro, On-chain & Economic Calendar __________________________________________________________________________________ FOMC July 29th : pivotal event, any surprise = strong intraday move (BTC sensitive to Powell speech). US Macro: strong fundamentals but caution on trade war, inflation "contained." On-chain : realized cap BTC >$1T, high open interest in derivatives = leveraged risk, beware speculative altcoin excess. Global risk : market remains buyer until bearish Fed/geopolitical shock; swing trading favored, tight stops recommended. __________________________________________________________________________________ Action plan __________________________________________________________________________________ Favor buying/reloading on pullbacks to 114.6k–116k (stop <114k). Break above 123k = bull confirmation, further extension likely to 126–128k depending on FOMC outcome. Prioritize strict risk management; monitor liquidity/supports on macro/on-chain volatility peaks. __________________________________________________________________________________
by Ox_kali
Strategic Multi-Swing Analysis – Pivots and Post-FOMC Outlook__________________________________________________________________________________ Technical Overview – Summary Points ➤ Sustained bullish momentum on BTCUSDT across all swing timeframes. ➤ Key supports: 116400–117400 (likely rebound), major supports: 105047–114674. ➤ Main resistances: 119000–120000 (short term), major ceiling at 123240 (1D/12H). ➤ Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: "Strong Buy" signal – tech sector leadership confirmed. ➤ Volumes normal to moderately elevated, no excess or behavioral anomaly (ISPD "Neutral"). ➤ No euphoria or capitulation flags; general wait-and-see attitude, FOMC event ahead. __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic Summary ➤ Strategic bullish bias remains as long as 116400/117400 supports hold. ➤ Opportunity window: buy pullbacks towards 117400–116400 with tight stops; clear invalidation below 115900. ➤ Risks: FOMC-induced volatility, increased leverage on alts, potential capitulation if key support breaks. ➤ Catalysts: FOMC communication, geopolitical context (no immediate threat), background risk-off climate not yet triggered. ➤ Action plan: Prioritize post-event reaction over anticipation; maintain strict technical protection. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Analysis 1D: Uptrend confirmed. Price above all major supports. Strong resistance at 123240, key support at 105047, normal volumes, Risk On / Risk Off Indicator "Strong Buy", ISPD "Neutral". 12H: Bullish bias. Resistance cluster 120002–123240. Intermediate supports 114674/111949. Momentum/volume supported, no excesses. 6H: Bullish near range top, supports at 114674/111949, ceiling at 120002–123240. Solid Risk On / Risk Off Indicator. 4H–2H: Up momentum, resistance 119003–120002–123240, supports 116474/117800. Moderate/normal volumes. 1H: Strong uptrend, thick resistance at 119000–120000, immediate supports 117800/116474. Slight volume uptick ahead of FOMC. 30min–15min: Resistance 119003–120000 (~H4 pivot). Intraday support 117400–117800/118200. Both Risk On / Risk Off Indicator and ISPD neutral, normal volumes, bullish as long as 116474 holds. SYNTHESIS: Broad bullish confluence on MTFTI from 1H to 1D/W. Supports at 116474/117400 are key pivots for maintaining bullish swing view. No behavioral alerts or extreme volumes. Consolidation/waiting likely before FOMC release – monitor reactions at pivot zones. __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic decision & macro Opportunities: Swing bullish scenario favored as long as key supports hold, buy strategic pullbacks, reverse on clear break. Main risk: FOMC volatility, altcoin excesses, possible post-announcement fake moves. Active monitoring essential. Macro/on-chain: No excess, BTC realized cap > $1T; aggressive rotation into alts, high open interest. No capitulation. Major on-chain & technical support aligned at 114500–118000. Action plan: Favor reactivity (post-FOMC), tight stops, progressive take profits at 119500–123240 resistance. No aggressive pre-positioning. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro catalysts overview FOMC expected: status quo, market sensitive to any Powell tone shift. Global macro: latent risk-off, geopolitical drivers closely watched. BTC stable, no technical disruptor in the immediate term. __________________________________________________________________________________ Final Decision Summary Robust technical setup with a clear bullish bias. Optimal entries on 117400-116400 pullbacks, stops below support, active management needed during FOMC. No on-chain excess; constructive background unless exogenous shock or resistance failure (119000–123240). Stay alert for breakout/reject pivot. __________________________________________________________________________________
by Ox_kali
Bitcoin vs Global M2: Can Liquidity Predict the future?This chart compares Bitcoin’s price (daily) with a Global M2 indicator that includes the monetary supply of major economies like the U.S., Eurozone, China, and Japan. It’s not a perfect global measure — but it gives us a reliable macro signal of what global liquidity is doing. And when it comes to Bitcoin, liquidity is everything. Why this matters: Bitcoin is often seen as volatile or unpredictable. But when we zoom out and overlay it with liquidity flows (like M2), a powerful pattern emerges: Bitcoin tends to follow global M2 with a ~10-week lag. When M2 rises, Bitcoin often rallies weeks later. When M2 contracts, Bitcoin loses momentum. This makes M2 a powerful leading indicator — not for predicting exact price levels, but for catching the direction of trend and regime shifts. What this chart tells us: M2 leads, Bitcoin follows. The curves won’t align perfectly — but the macro structure is there. Big expansions in M2 create a friendlier environment for risk assets like BTC. This is the same logic used by macro strategists like Raoul Pal: liquidity drives everything. Important disclaimer: This doesn’t mean M2 tells you where price will be on a specific date. But it can help identify turning points — and confirm whether we’re in a reflationary vs contractionary environment. Think of it as a weather forecast, not a GPS pin. In other words: This chart doesn't show the price. It shows the future.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by JoseCeppi
3
Bitcoin Bullish Structure Holds: Focus on Support Entries & Brea__________________________________________________________________________________ Technical Overview – Summary Points __________________________________________________________________________________ Momentum: Uptrend synchronization on all timeframes (MTFTI Strong Up). Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: strong buy on larger TF, neutral intraday. Supports/resistances: Main HTF supports well below current price (115,736–117,000, 111,980). Key resistances to break: 120,998.7 and 122,318. Volumes: Normal to moderate, no climax, no distribution detected. Multi-TF behaviour: No behavioural excess, no sell signal, intraday phases are consolidative just below resistance, which is normal. __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic Summary __________________________________________________________________________________ Overall bias: Strong bullish, no end-of-trend alert. Buying retracement towards the Pivot Lows is preferred. Opportunities: Entries on dips to 115,700–117,000 (2H/4H); breakout above 120,250/122,300. Risk zones: Return below 115,700 or 111,980 = structural alert. Increased vigilance for macro releases (ECB/PMI/Jobless Claims). Macro drivers: Fed in focus (no move expected), volatility risk around July 29–30 (FOMC). Action plan: Entry on retracement, dynamic management. Stop-loss under 115,736 then 111,980. Partial exits on excess or confirmed breakout. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Analysis __________________________________________________________________________________ 1D: Resistances 122,318, 120,998.7; supports 115,736.9, 105,100.2. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: strong buy, all synchronized bullish, no exhaustion. Daily bias: robust uptrend. 12H/6H/4H: Bullish confluence. Strong momentum, stable volume, validated supports. No ISPD excess, sectoral strength intact. 2H/1H: Consolidation below resistance; healthy structure. Supports to be favored for swing/intraday positioning. Minor intraday hesitation, no reversal. 30min/15min: Behavioural neutrality, lateral movement. Volume normal to mildly elevated, no overheating. Structural risk absent. Additional indicators: Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: Strong buy up to 2H; neutral on short TF. ISPD DIV: Neutral, healthy market, no excess detected. Volume: No climax or distribution, multi-TF structural support. Cross-timeframe synthesis: Multi-timeframe bullish alignment, no structural weakness. Opportunities on retracement, breakout plays above all-time highs. __________________________________________________________________________________ Synthesis & Strategic Bias __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC trend and momentum remain aligned, sector leadership (Risk On / Risk Off Indicator) intact. Strong HTF support, major resistances must break for extension. External risk: macroeconomic catalysts (Fed, ECB, US PMI). Premium opportunities on dips to supports, dynamic management essential around macro events. Final bias: as long as supports and indicator alignment hold, bull run continues. Partial exit at resistance; stops below validated pivots.
Long
by Ox_kali
USD/JPY: A Bullish Thesis for Trend ContinuationThis analysis outlines a data-driven, bullish thesis for USD/JPY, identifying a strategic long entry within an established market trend. The setup is supported by a combination of fundamental catalysts and a clear technical structure. 📰 The Fundamental Picture The primary driver for this trade will be the high-impact US economic data scheduled for release. This release is expected to inject significant volatility into the market. Fundamentally, this trade is a play on the deep policy differences between the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. While the Fed's future steps are a topic of debate, the Bank of Japan's policy remains one of the most accommodative in the world, creating a long-term headwind for the Japanese Yen. This dynamic provides a strong fundamental basis for relative US Dollar strength against the Yen. 📊 The Technical Structure Chart analysis reveals that USD/JPY is in a confirmed and healthy uptrend. The current price action indicates a constructive pullback, presenting a strategic opportunity to join the dominant trend at a favorable price. The proposed entry point is positioned at a key technical level that offers a low-risk entry. Technical indicators support the continuation of the trend, suggesting that momentum remains with the bulls. ✅ The Trade Plan This trade is structured with a clear and favorable risk-to-reward profile, aiming to capitalize on the established trend. 👉 Entry: 146.343 ⛔️ Stop Loss: 145.233 🎯 Take Profit: 148.560 ⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2
Long
by MaxellAguiran
AUD/JPY: Capitalizing on the RBA-BoJ Monetary Policy GapThis analysis outlines a compelling short opportunity in AUD/JPY, driven by a powerful confluence of fundamental and technical factors. The trade is strategically positioned ahead of a key catalyst that could unlock significant downside potential. 1️⃣ The Core Thesis: A Clear Policy Divergence The primary driver behind this trade is the stark and widening gap in monetary policy between the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The RBA is signaling a clear dovish pivot amid a weakening labor market, making an interest rate cut imminent. Conversely, the BoJ is in a tightening phase, creating a fundamental headwind for the AUD relative to the JPY. This divergence underpins the strategic bearish bias. 2️⃣ The Confirmation: Technical Alignment This fundamental view is supported by a clear technical picture. The pair is in a well-defined downtrend and is currently testing a critical support level. This alignment of fundamental and technical factors presents a clear short opportunity, with the entry positioned for a breakdown below this key juncture. 3️⃣ The Catalyst: The RBA Bulletin The immediate catalyst for this trade is the upcoming RBA Bulletin on July 24, 2025. Any dovish language from the RBA concerning Australia's economic outlook will likely reinforce expectations for a rate cut and accelerate the downward move in AUD/JPY. The Trade Setup ✅ Here is the recommended trade setup: 📉 Trade: SHORT AUD/JPY 👉 Entry: 96.56200 ⛔️ Stop Loss: 96.96386 🎯 Take Profit: 95.49900 🧠 Risk/Reward Ratio: 2.65 This setup offers a compelling risk-reward profile, capitalizing on a clear and powerful macroeconomic theme. The trade is designed to perform should the expected catalyst confirm the underlying bearish fundamentals.
Short
by MaxellAguiran
Bitcoin Bullish Momentum, Swing Setups on Support Pre-ECB__________________________________________________________________________________ Technical Overview – Summary Points __________________________________________________________________________________ Strong bullish momentum confirmed on all timeframes >1H; structure Up. Major supports: 105100, 111980, 115736; main resistance: 122318 (ATH). Volumes normal at all timeframes except 30min (very high at lows, institutional absorption). No behavioral anomaly signals (ISPD DIV neutral, Risk On / Risk Off Indicator = "STRONG BUY" everywhere except 15m/30m). Multi-timeframe alignment, only 15m/30m in minor divergence (Down, no structural impact). __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic Summary __________________________________________________________________________________ Bullish swing/mid-term bias confirmed: Optimal opportunities on pullbacks 117900–116467. Risk/stop zone: below 115736 USDT (key multi-frame pivot). Catalysts: ECB (24/07, volatility expected); strict monitoring post-announcement. Plan: swing entries on pullback, strict risk management, reduce exposure before macro events. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Analysis __________________________________________________________________________________ Daily (1D) : Consolidation after ATH, strong supports (105100, 111980). Strong momentum, Risk On / Risk Off Indicator at "STRONG BUY," ISPD neutral. Normal volumes. 12H/6H : Price oscillating near upper pivots (115736, 116467). Buyers in control. "STRONG BUY" generalized. 4H/2H : Range 116467–119676, Up momentum. Swing setups/favorable to buyers on weakness. 1H : Full confirmation of the bullish bias. 116.5–117K area = key support for scalp/swing. 30min/15min : Minor short-term bearish divergence, increasing volumes, no structural warning. Possible scalping on bullish reaction 117800–116467. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator = "STRONG BUY" on all timeframes (>1H). Only micro-risk: "Down" divergence on 15/30min, to be watched. Main risk: $130K area (Glassnode major statistical resistance), possible capitulation below 115736 (swing invalidation). Targets: 122–130k. Macro: Reduce exposure before 24/07 (ECB), adjust stops if extreme volatility. __________________________________________________________________________________ Fundamental & On-Chain Summary (Glassnode, July 22, 2025) __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC in price discovery, all holder cohorts in profit (>95% STH). Profit-taking rising but no climax detected; market is "breathing". Major support: $110K; major resistance: $130K. Attractive risk/reward outside euphoria zones. Stop advised <115736. No immediate disruptive macro catalyst. Watch for volatility spikes at ECB decision (24/07). __________________________________________________________________________________ Actionable Synthesis & Plan __________________________________________________________________________________ "Swing long" favored on pullback 117900–116467 / stop below 115736. Scalping weaknesses 117800–116467 on bullish reaction, monitor post-ECB confirmation. Reduce leverage/exposure ahead of ECB. R/R ratio >2 on bullish swing scenario; strict stop-loss. Robust bullish context, valid technical structure. Active approach required short term: seize pullbacks, protect stops, adjust post macro-news.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Ox_kali
Inflation vs. Growth : Is the Fed Behind or Ahead of the Curve?CME_MINI:NQ1! CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:MNQ1! CME_MINI:MES1! CBOT:ZN1! Fed Policy recap: There is an interesting and unusual theme to keep an eye on this week. The Fed is in a ‘blackout period’ until the FOMC meeting- this is a customary quiet period ahead of an FOMC policy meeting. Fed Chair Powell is scheduled to give a public talk on Tuesday. Although his address will be focused on the capital framework of the large banks, this appearance will be closely watched for any subtle signals on the FOMC policy stance. Especially given that last week, Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller made a speech, “The Case for Cutting Now” with a purpose as he stated to explain why the FOMC should reduce rate by 25 bps at the July 30th, 2025 meeting. His stated reasons were: 1. Tariffs create one-off price level increases with transitory inflation effects, not sustained inflation momentum. 2. He argued that much of economic data points towards interest rates should be lowered to FOMC’s participants' median neutral rate, i.e, 3%. 3. His third stated reason notes that while the state of the labor market looks resilient on the surface, accounting for expected data revisions, private-sector payroll growth has peaked, with more data suggesting increased downside risks. His speech further explains: • Growth has decelerated sharply: Real GDP rose only ~1% annualized in 1H25, a significant slowdown from 2.8% in 2H24, and well below long-run potential. • Consumer spending is weakening, with real PCE growth falling to ~1%, and June retail sales showing soft underlying momentum. • Broader labor market indicators, including the Beige Book and JOLTS data, show declining labor demand and hiring caution, suggesting increasing downside risks to employment. • Inflation is slightly above target (PCE ~2.5%) but driven primarily by temporary, one-off tariff effects. Core inflation ex-tariffs is likely near 2%, and expectations remain anchored. • Current fed funds range (4.25%–4.50%) is well above neutral (3%), implying excessive restraint. • With inflation risks subdued and macro conditions deteriorating, a preemptive rate cut now provides optionality and avoids falling behind the curve if the slowdown deepens. Further cuts may be warranted if trends persist. • The tax bill contains pro-growth provisions, but its economic impact is expected to be minimal in 2025. Source: Federal Reserve Speech, The Case for Cutting Now Governor Waller Inflation Analysis: Let’s compare this with what we have previously mentioned regarding inflation. CPI index stood at 257.971 points in January 2020. Projecting this at a 2% Fed target, June 2025 inflation should be around 287.655 points. However, June 2025 inflation is currently at 322.56 index points, 12.2% higher above 2% the inflation trend. Effectively, this means annualized inflation since January 2020 is roughly 4.15%. The Fed is in a real dilemma whether cutting rates given the inflation trend in the last 5 years and risks to inflation outlook justify cutting rates. Key Questions to ask Markets are forward looking. Investors and participants want to know: • How will the rates impact the cost of debt service? Currently the third largest government expenditure, over $1.03 trillion. • Will the tariff rate offset the tax revenue losses by extending tax cuts? • Is the fiscal path sustainable? • What happens to the long end of the yield-curve? • Will the Fed monetize the debt issuance imbalance? • Is this simply Governor Waller positioning himself for the next appointment of Fed Chair when Fed Chair Powell’s term expires in May 2026? It seems there is a huge conflict between longer term implications vs quick short term fixes that align with US administration objectives. The Week ahead: It is a relatively light economic calendar in the US. Flash PMI readings and housing data on the docket. The primary focus as it has been for most weeks since President Trump took office, will be on the developments in trade policy and any further comments on Fed and Chair Powell. The threat of renewed tariffs starting August 1st, is also key to monitor and whether these protectionist measures will force US’s trading partners to make further concessions to negotiate trade deals. The earnings season is off to a good start with major US banks reporting higher EPS and revenue than expectations. This week investors will be looking at Q2 earnings reports from Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft from the Mag 7 and Tesla.
ECONOMICS:USCPI
by EdgeClear
Bullish Multi-Timeframe Alignment, Macro Risks & Key Levels__________________________________________________________________________________ Technical Overview – Summary Points __________________________________________________________________________________ Momentum: Strong bullish trend across all timeframes. Major Supports: 115796/117277 (720/240 Pivot Low). Key Resistances: 119000–123200 (240/D Pivot High), watch for potential extension or profit-taking. Volume: Healthy participation, no marked anomalies. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: Strong sector momentum except 15min (neutral), risk appetite confirmed. Multi-TF Behavior Synthesis: No "behavioral sell" warning, ISPD DIV neutral, no climax. __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic Summary __________________________________________________________________________________ Global Bias: Clearly bullish, all timeframes aligned, no notable technical divergences. Opportunities: Buy on pullback (HTF support) or on breakout/consolidation above 123200 with increasing bullish volume. Risk Zones: Drop below 115796 invalidates scenario; watch for “sell” behavioral signals (ISPD red/extreme volumes) or persistent sector divergence. Macro Catalysts: Next Fed meeting (July 21st), ongoing geopolitical tensions. Action Plan: Closely monitor supports/resistances, strict stops below 115796, dynamic adjustment to upcoming macro volatility. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Analysis __________________________________________________________________________________ 1D: Bullish breakout, leading tech/growth sector, stable volume. 12H: Bullish signal, price held above all key HTF pivots. 6H: Consolidation below key resistance 123218, no distribution, strength intact. 4H: Sideways just below resistance, controlled pause, possible push upwards. 2H: Stalling under resistance yet bullish momentum still present. 1H: Supports defended, rising volume on rebounds, no excess. 30min: Intraday momentum positive; no signs of reversal, strong indicator consensus. 15min: Testing pivots, slight momentum decline, neutral on Risk On / Risk Off Indicator. __________________________________________________________________________________ Technical confluence: All timeframes aligned upward, strong sector momentum, controlled volumes, no behavioral excess. Watch for resolution near the 119000–123200 resistance zone (potential supply), and monitor for alert signals on behavioral/volume side. Macro: anticipate volatility around July 21 (Fed). __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & Decision Synthesis __________________________________________________________________________________ News / Macro: Upcoming Fed meeting = caution period, expected volatility spike. Geopolitics: Middle East/Europe tensions, no Asian shock. On-chain: BTC in price discovery, initial STH profit-taking, everyone in latent profit (interim top risk if overheated, reward up to $130k possible). Actionable checklist: Optimal entry: Pullback on 115796–117277 or strong breakout above 123200 with confirmed volume Stop-loss: Below 115796 (major pivot); intraday swings below 117277 Imperative risk management, avoid leveraged trades ahead of macro event __________________________________________________________________________________ Final Conclusion __________________________________________________________________________________ Bitcoin is structurally bullish, supported by perfect multi-timeframe alignment, strong sector leadership (Risk On / Risk Off Indicator), and positive on-chain signals. However, proximity to historical resistances and looming volatility call for strict, active risk management. Targets: $123k/$130k; stops below 115796.
Long
by Ox_kali
Bitcoin at 120,000: Decisive Breakout or Renewed Consolidation?__________________________________________________________________________________ Technical Overview – Summary Points __________________________________________________________________________________ Momentum: Strongly bullish on H1 and above; healthy consolidation below ATH. Supports/Resistances: 120,000 USDT (pivot resistance), 116,400–117,000 (major support), 104,000–110,000 (long-term support). Volumes: Normal, no anomaly nor climax detected. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: Strong buy signal on all timeframes except very short term. Sectoral health confirmed. Multi-timeframe: Short-term bearish divergence on 15/30min, but robust technical structure above H1-D1. __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic Summary __________________________________________________________________________________ Global bias: Confirmed bullish across all timeframes; no major break detected. Opportunities: Strategic buys between 116,400–117,000 (pullback); confirmed breakout above 120,000 (target 130,000). Risk zones: Below 116,000 (potential correction to 112,000–104,000), false breakout at the top. Macro catalysts: Monitor Fed (next FOMC July 29-30), volatility on risk assets, geopolitical tensions. Action plan: Prioritize stop management, stay reactive ahead of macro events. Main scenario: buy confirmed pullback or validated breakout. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Analysis __________________________________________________________________________________ 1D / 12H: Bullish structure intact but facing historical resistance (120k), strong supports in place (104–107k). 6H / 4H / 2H: Consolidation below resistance, no signs of exhaustion, tactical supports at 116,000–117,000. 1H / 30min / 15min: Weakness on shorter timeframes (sellers at top), confirmation of range polarization. No emotional excesses (ISPD DIV neutral), standard volumes. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: Strong buy except for very short-term fatigue. Summary: Multi-horizon bullish bias, technical and sectoral confluence for upside extension if clear breakout >120,000. Key support to hold at 116,400–117,000. Buy dips, ride breakout up to 130,000. Focus on risk management, flexibility advised as macro (Fed) nears. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key macro events to watch __________________________________________________________________________________ 2025-07-18: Fed rate/volatility debate (Equity, Bonds, BTC). 2025-07-29: FOMC (potential pivot for risk assets). __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic decision & final summary __________________________________________________________________________________ Main bias: Bullish, to be validated at key levels, favor buying dips/breakouts. Risk management: Stop below 116,000, scale out progressively after 125k, reinforced protection ahead of FOMC. Opportunities: Pullback 116,400–117,000 (RR >3); H4/D breakout >120,000 targeting 130,000 (RR >2). Monitoring: Macro (Fed, geopolitics), dynamic management according to market response to news. Conclusion: A validated move above 120,000 projects target to 130,000 (next statistical/on-chain extension). Deep dips can be bought above 104,000. Do not loosen risk management as Fed date approaches.
Long
by Ox_kali
Bitcoin Swing Reinforcement, Strategic Stops Below 115k__________________________________________________________________________________ Technical Overview – Summary Points __________________________________________________________________________________ Momentum : Strong bullish trend on all timeframes above 1h (MTFTI dark/gray, “Strong Up” confirmed). Supports/Resistances : Key supports: $104,000–$110,000 (HTF), $116,000–$118,000 (STF). Strategic resistances: $120,000–$122,000 (HTF), ATH $125,000. Volumes : No excess, healthy and regular flows. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator : Strong BUY across all higher timeframes, US tech sector momentum is bullish. ISPD DIV : Neutral across all TFs, no extreme behavioral signals. Multi-TF behavior : Bullish confirmation down to 1H; neutral/profit-taking mood on 15min–5min. __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic Summary __________________________________________________________________________________ Overall bias : Strong bullish as long as the $116,000 zone holds. Opportunities : Swing entries on pullbacks $116,000–$118,000; first take-profits at $122,000–$125,000. Potential extension up to $130,000 if on-chain momentum persists. Risk zones : Below $115,000 = invalidation, structural downside risk (swing closure recommended). Macro catalysts : No imminent major macro event, structurally mild volatility. Geopolitical hand neutral for now. Risk management : Mandatory stop $114,800–$115,000, current risk/reward >2:1 on the bounce zone. Action plan : Buy on clean retracement above 116k–118k, actively track STH profit-taking, reactively adjust if major S/R clusters break. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Analysis __________________________________________________________________________________ 1D : Supports 104k–110k, major resistance 120k–125k. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator STRONG BUY. ISPD DIV neutral, volumes regular. MTFTI Strong Up. 12H : S/R 117.5k–119.3k, strong support 115k–116k. Risk-on sectorial momentum active. Volumes unaltered, confirmed uptrend. 6H : Resistance 119.3k, support 116k. Still strong buy, healthy flows, technical uptrend confirmed. Bounce ops 116k–117k. 4H : Support 117.5k–118.2k. Resistance 120k–121k. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator only buy, general up. No abnormal volume. 2H : Support 118k/116k, resistance 120k. Sectorial momentum intact, uptrend solid, best scalping/retest at 118k. 1H : Support 118k, res. at 119.5k then 120k. Sectorial momentum strong, no volume/ISPD excess. 30min : Support 118k, resistance 119k/119.8k. Slight momentum drop, context healthy. Fast entries on rebounds. 15min : Support 118.2k, resistance 119.3k. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator neutral. MTFTI micro-volatile. Volumes steady. __________________________________________________________________________________ Decision Synthesis __________________________________________________________________________________ Confluences : Bullish alignment across HTFs, strong sector momentum, healthy volumes, no behavioral excess. Divergences : Slight short-term fading on lower TFs. Adjustment signal, not a trend reversal. On-chain : All holders in profit, early STH profit-taking but no structural top. Potential extension 122–130k$ before local exhaustion zone. Risks : Drop below 115k would invalidate the swing dynamic. Geopolitical stress to be monitored, but little short-term transmission. Strategy : Buyers to reinforce between 116k–118k, secure partials above 122k. Strict stop below 115k. __________________________________________________________________________________
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Ox_kali
$GTLB undervalued, Potential 2X, AI assisted coding tailwind- NASDAQ:GTLB is likely one of the play for Agentic AI. When other companies like Windsurf, Codium, Cursor are in a goldrush. NASDAQ:GTLB is selling shovels. - AI assisted coding is now a theme and is happening at a fast pace. I'm certain NASDAQ:GTLB will be a beneficiary of this trend. - NASDAQ:GTLB has launched various AI based features on its platform which will get adoption and it will be easier for the company to upsell these features. - P/S for NASDAQ:GTLB is depressed. If they even execute on their fiscal goals, re-rating should lift the stock up. - NASDAQ:GTLB should be a 2X in less than 3 years in my opinion given secular shift and macro as a tailwind. Fair value for NASDAQ:GTLB as of now is $68-72
NASDAQ:GTLBLong
by bigbull037