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Economic Tipping Point...GFC 2.0? In this video we discuss; Bond Market Signal using the 2 year yield. Is the 2 year yield giving us a 2007 / 2008 signal? We look at the correlation of the 2 year yield vs SPX We analyze the forward expectation of interest rate projections. Observe and dissect last weeks economic employment data. There will be plenty of opportunities in this next phase of the market cycle. I will be looking very forward to the plethora of trade alerts I will be issuing.
TVC:US02YLong
by Trading-Capital
U.S. Macroeconomic DashboardThis is more of a cheatsheet/how-to for my own reference on my macro indicators charting layout. If the chart layout is helpful to the community, all the better! I find it useful for studying events and crises. Indicators used: SPX, VIX, FEDFUNDS + US10Y + T10Y2Y, USIRYY + USCIR, UNRATE, USBCOI, BAMLH0A0HYM2, DXY Row 1: Equity and volatility benchmarks Row 2: Policy stance and inflation Row 3: Unemployment and growth metrics Row 4: Credit spreads and USD strength SPX Measuring : Equity benchmark Relevance : Broadest market barometer Observe : Trend direction, key levels, divergence vs other indicators VIX Measuring : Volatility index Relevance : Market's implied volatility (read: "fear/greed gauge") Observe : Spike --> risk-off, hedging demand; sustained lows --> complacency FEDFUNDS + US10Y + T10Y2Y Measuring : U.S. policy stance and yield curve Relevance : Monetary tightening and loosening; yield curve recession slope Observe : T10Y2Y curve inversion --> recession risk; bear steepening --> watch for inflation/deficit concerns; bull steepening --> Fed easing, recovery signal USIRYY + USCIR Measuring : Inflation Relevance : Headline: all prices; Core: Excluding food + energy Observe : Headline stat drives short-term moves. Core stat drives Fed policy UNRATE Measuring : Unemployment rate Relevance : Labor market health (this is a lagging indicator) Observe : Rising trend --> recession risk; very low --> possible overheating USBCOI Measuring : Manufacturing PMI; Business activity Relevance : Leading growth indicator for manufacturing, services Observe : >50 means expansion, <50 means contraction BAMLH0A0HYM2 Measuring : U.S. High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread (the extra yield/spread investors demand to hold junk bonds vs risk-free Treasuries) Relevance : Stress in corporate bond markets; risk sentiment Observe : Widening --> investors demand more compensation for credit risk; narrowing --> investors are confident, low fear of defaults. 2-4 is normal, 4-6 is stressed, 6+ is distress, 10+ is crisis level DXY Measuring : USD strength Relevance : Global liquidity, capital flows, financial conditions Observe : Strong USD = tighter conditions and pressure on risk assets; inverse for weak USD
TVC:SPXEducation
by klizarazo
$200 soon - SOL weekly update August 12 - 18thFrom an Elliott Wave perspective, the scenario for Solana has been slightly adjusted from previous counts. Current price action suggests that SOL is already in an impulsive upward move, which aligns well with the broader correlation observed across the altcoin market. As with many other altcoins, the structure shows a completed 1–2 sequence at the Primary degree and another 1–2 sequence at the Intermediate degree. At the Minor degree, price is in the final stages of Wave 1, specifically in Minute Wave 5. An alternative scenario — less likely but still possible — is that the move is actually a corrective structure, with the Minor degree currently forming Wave C. This would become more probable if price extends significantly beyond the 1.618 Fibonacci extension, as such behaviour would be atypical for a standard fifth wave. From a liquidity standpoint, short- to medium-term bias points upward. The liquidity heatmap shows a large concentration of liquidity at the local high of Wave 3, as well as significant order clusters near the 1.0 extension target for the current Wave 5. However, substantial liquidity is also accumulating below current price, which will likely be targeted during the subsequent Wave 2 retracement. Funding rates have shifted from slightly negative toward positive territory, and open interest is climbing — both signs of a stable and sustained upward move. Macro conditions also support the current market tone. The latest CPI data came in at 2.7%, better than expected, boosting sentiment. As the FOMC meeting approaches, retail traders are increasingly positioning for a potential “altseason” — a dynamic that raises the probability of a sell-the-news event if expectations are overextended. Given the current wave structure, liquidity positioning, and macro backdrop, the 1.0 Fibonacci extension level has been set as the primary target for the completion of this Minor Wave 5. This area aligns with heavy order clustering and fits the typical profile for a fifth wave termination before a corrective phase. Do your own research — and trade safe.
BINANCE:SOLUSDLong
by Phillipklh
U.S. Slaps 39% Tariff on Swiss Gold BarsU.S. Slaps 39% Tariff on Swiss Gold Bars, Shaking the Global Bullion Market By Hirad Aryanejad – Macroeconomic & Gold Markets Analyst --- The United States has moved to impose a 39% tariff on imports of one-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars from Switzerland — a shock decision that could ripple across the global bullion market. In a letter dated July 31, 2025, the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) reclassified these widely traded bullion products — critical to the Comex futures market — as “semi-manufactured”, making them subject to duties. Previously, they were classified as “unwrought, nonmonetary gold” , exempting them from earlier tariff rounds. --- A Blow to the World’s Largest Refining Hub The decision follows former President Donald Trump’s broader tariff package on all Swiss goods, announced after rejecting Switzerland’s proposal for a 10% tariff in exchange for \$150 billion in U.S.-bound investment. Switzerland — the world’s largest gold refining hub — exported roughly $61.5 billion in gold to the U.S. over the 12 months ending June 2025. The new tariff could add nearly $24 billion in duties. Christoph Wild, President of the Swiss Association of Manufacturers and Traders of Precious Metals, called the ruling “another blow” to Swiss-U.S. gold trade, warning that exports may become “economically unviable”. --- Market Reaction: Record Gold Prices The ruling triggered an immediate market shock. Gold futures in New York surged past $3,500 per troy ounce, hitting a record $3,534 on August 8, before pulling back slightly. Analysts say the rally was driven by both the tariff announcement and gold’s safe-haven appeal amid escalating trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty. Some traders described the CBP’s decision as “shocking” and possibly mistaken, predicting legal challenges ahead. The lack of clarity has already caused certain shipments to freeze in transit. --- The Critical Role of Switzerland in Bullion Logistics Global bullion trade depends on a triangular supply chain: Raw gold refined in Switzerland Cast into kilo bars for the U.S. market or 400-ounce bars for London Delivered to satisfy Comex contracts and central bank reserves This logistical network is now under threat. UBS strategist Joni Teves has questioned whether U.S. gold futures trading can remain viable if tariffs on deliverable products persist. The Swiss Precious Metals Association noted that the CBP’s clarification applies to all 1kg and 100oz gold bars imported into the U.S. not only those from Switzerland — raising the stakes for global trade flows. --- Negotiations and Uncertainty Ahead Switzerland continues to negotiate with Washington to reduce the tariff burden, but uncertainty remains. The White House is reportedly preparing a clarification on the bullion tariffs that could determine whether the market stabilizes or faces prolonged disruption. Until then, gold industry players — from major banks to refining houses — are bracing for further volatility, both in pricing and physical supply chains. --- Keywords: gold market news, Swiss gold bars, U.S. gold tariffs, Comex gold futures, bullion trade, Switzerland gold exports, precious metals refining, gold price surge, macroeconomic analysis.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDShort
by hiradaryanejad
2
Mirroring alts - FET weekly update August 10 - 16thFetch.ai (FET) is advancing within a multi-degree Elliott Wave alignment that mirrors the structures seen across many other altcoins. At the Cycle degree, price is in Wave 1; at the Primary degree, a completed 1–2 structure suggests that Wave 3 is now underway; at the Intermediate degree, the same 1–2 formation implies another Wave 3; at the Minor degree, price is currently in Wave 1; and at the Minute degree, price is in the late stages of Wave 3, which is likely to end inside the highlighted Fair Value Gap (FVG). Once this smaller Wave 3 completes, a short-lived Wave 4 pullback is expected, followed by Wave 5 to finish Minor Wave 1. A deeper retracement into the 0.5–0.764 Fibonacci zone would then be possible as part of Minor Wave 2 before the next sustained advance. The structure remains bullish as long as key support levels hold. From a sentiment and liquidity standpoint, funding rates are positive, indicating a bias toward long positions. The liquidity heatmap shows only limited liquidity above current price, while there is more liquidity resting below — a configuration that could allow for a quick liquidity sweep before continuation. This chart pattern is notably similar to many other altcoin structures right now, reflecting the high degree of correlation within the crypto market. If Bitcoin confirms its own bullish wave count, these aligned setups could trigger synchronized breakouts. Conversely, a BTC rejection could weigh on all correlated altcoins, including FET. In the broader macroeconomic context, the CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 88,9% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the September FOMC meeting. Markets often front-run such decisions, and this could act as a catalyst for impulsive Wave 3 rallies across crypto. However, heavily skewed bullish sentiment increases the risk of a “sell-the-news” event if traders over-leverage ahead of the announcement. Institutional accumulation likely occurred earlier in the cycle, leaving retail traders to drive the next legs higher. As long as structural support remains intact and the anticipated Wave 4–5 sequence plays out, FET appears well-positioned for continuation — in alignment with the bullish setups currently visible across much of the altcoin market.
BINANCE:FETUSDLong
by Phillipklh
Undecided. - SAND/SAN weekly update August 9 - 15thThe Sandbox (SAND) is currently advancing within a strongly aligned Elliott Wave structure. At the Cycle degree, price is in Wave 3; at both the Primary and Intermediate degrees, it is also in Wave 3; and at the Minute degree, the market is completing a smaller Wave 3. From a Smart Money Concepts perspective, it would make sense for price to dip into the lower highlighted Fair Value Gap (FVG) before continuing higher, as this aligns with key Fibonacci retracement levels. Even a quick wick into this zone would be sufficient to rebalance price before continuation. Following this potential retracement, the structure anticipates a short Wave 4 followed by Wave 5, which is projected to terminate in the upper FVG marked on the chart. This interpretation fits well with the overall bullish macro structure. However, if Wave 4 were to drop below the top of Wave 1, the current count would be invalidated. A move below the start of Wave 1 would raise the probability that the current advance is part of a more complex corrective structure rather than a sustained impulse. From a derivatives perspective, funding rates remain positive while open interest is stagnating, indicating steady but not accelerating long participation. The liquidity heatmap shows significant liquidity resting below the Wave 2 low, which could act as a magnet for a short-term sweep before continuation. On a broader level, this setup aligns with the macroeconomic backdrop. The CME FedWatch Tool currently shows a 88.9% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the September FOMC meeting. Such expectations often lead to markets front-running the event, potentially fuelling impulsive Wave 3 rallies across the crypto sector. However, if bullish positioning becomes excessive, the risk of a “sell-the-news” reaction or a liquidation event increases — particularly in assets like SAND, which are already in extended third waves. Institutional positioning likely occurred earlier in the cycle, leaving retail traders to provide the momentum for the next legs up. As long as key support levels hold and the lower FVG provides the anticipated reaction, SAND remains well-positioned for a continued advance toward the 0.320–0.340 range, with multiple wave degrees supporting the bullish case.
VANTAGE:SANUSDLong
by Phillipklh
Third-Tier action - MANA weekly update August 9 - 15thDecentraland (MANA) is currently advancing within a strongly aligned Elliott Wave structure. At the Cycle degree, the market is in Wave 1; at the Primary degree, it is in Wave 3; at the Intermediate degree, also in Wave 3; and at the Minor degree, in Wave 1. At the Minute degree, price is in the late stages of Wave 3. This smaller Wave 3 is approaching a bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG), which could act as resistance and mark the short-term top of this wave. Interestingly, the projected target for Wave 5 also aligns with a higher-level bearish FVG, adding structural confluence to the broader setup. While the overarching wave alignment remains bullish, there are a few elements to monitor closely. Funding rates are positive but leaning slightly toward the negative, suggesting a mild sentiment shift, while open interest continues to rise, indicating stronger market participation. However, the liquidity heatmap reveals a significant concentration of liquidity below the current price, which weighs against the immediate bullish continuation, as such liquidity often attracts short-term sweeps before the trend resumes. Market psychology could also play a major role in the next move. With Ethereum currently rallying strongly, there is a plausible rotation scenario: once ETH reaches a key resistance level and slows down, capital may rotate into second- and third-tier altcoins like MANA, accelerating their upside moves. Such rotations often coincide with euphoric retail behaviour, which can amplify both gains and volatility. From a macroeconomic perspective, this setup is further supported by expectations surrounding the upcoming September FOMC meeting. The CME FedWatch Tool currently shows a 88.9% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut. Markets tend to front-run such events, and this expectation could fuel bullish momentum into Wave 3 moves across the crypto sector. However, with sentiment leaning heavily bullish, there is also the risk of a “sell-the-news” reaction, especially if leveraged longs pile in too aggressively ahead of the announcement. Institutional positioning appears to have taken place earlier in the cycle, as evidenced by order block formations near the end of prior corrective waves, leaving retail traders to drive the next leg higher. This dynamic often defines the acceleration phase of a third wave. As long as key support levels hold and the structure remains intact, MANA’s multi-timeframe alignment suggests that the next impulsive rally could be substantial — though traders should remain mindful of the liquidity resting below, which could trigger a temporary shakeout before continuation.
COINBASE:MANAUSDLong
by Phillipklh
3
Chasing new highs - GRT weekly update August 8 - 14thThe Graph (GRT) has formed two higher-degree 1–2 setups — one at the Cycle degree and one at the Primary degree — creating a structurally bullish foundation. At the Intermediate degree, price is currently advancing in Wave 1, while at the Minor degree, it is in Wave 3, the most dynamic phase of an impulse. This alignment of early waves across degrees suggests a potentially strong continuation if key resistance levels are broken. The immediate bullish confirmation comes from a break above the $0.097 resistance, which would open the door for a sustained rally toward the $0.106–$0.122 zone, based on Fibonacci extensions. However, there is an alternative scenario: if the market fails to clear $0.097 and sells off, breaking the $0.0873 support, it would indicate that Intermediate Wave C and therefore Primary Wave 2 are not yet complete. In that case, a final low to complete the larger correction would be expected before the uptrend resumes. From a sentiment perspective, funding rates are positive, and open interest is rising, showing increasing long exposure. The liquidity heatmap reveals significant liquidity resting below current price, with only minor clusters above — a configuration that could invite a short-term liquidity sweep before continuation. This setup also needs to be viewed in the context of broader macroeconomic conditions. For much of this year, capital inflows into crypto were limited by the Federal Reserve’s restrictive monetary policy. However, the CME FedWatch Tool now shows a 89.1% probability of a rate cut at the September FOMC meeting. Markets tend to front-run such events, and this expectation could fuel Wave 3 advances across the crypto sector. But with anticipation running high, there is also the risk of a sell-the-news reaction, particularly if retail traders over-leverage into the move. It’s worth noting that this structure in GRT closely mirrors many other altcoin charts at the moment — a sign of high correlation within the crypto market. As long as the $0.097 resistance is broken and the $0.0873 level remains intact, the probability favours the bullish scenario — with a multi-degree Wave 3 advance potentially underway, fueled by both technical structure and macro catalysts.
COINBASE:GRTUSDLong
by Phillipklh
Bear trap on its way - Bitcoin Weekly Update August 4-10thThis week brings a series of macroeconomic and geopolitical developments that may influence global risk sentiment and, consequently, Bitcoin’s price trajectory. On Monday, the U.S. releases Factory Orders, a key indicator of industrial demand. Surprises in this data can affect risk assets broadly, as they reflect business investment activity. Weak numbers would likely increase expectations of monetary easing, which tends to support Bitcoin. On Tuesday, the spotlight turns to the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, a leading indicator for the U.S. services sector, which accounts for roughly 70% of GDP. A significant deviation from expectations—especially a decline—could reinforce rate-cut expectations and provide tailwinds for speculative assets like Bitcoin. Thursday is a critical day, with the Bank of England's interest rate decision in focus. While direct effects on crypto are limited, a hawkish stance could weigh on global risk appetite if inflation concerns resurface. Also on Thursday, the U.S. releases its weekly Initial Jobless Claims—a timely barometer of labor market strength. A rising trend here would suggest economic cooling, strengthening the case for looser policy and potentially benefiting crypto. However, the most geopolitically sensitive event this week is the reintroduction of country-specific reciprocal tariffs by the United States, taking effect on August 7. Affected countries include Canada (35%), Mexico (30%), and Brazil (50%). These measures could re-escalate trade tensions and trigger short-term market volatility. Retaliatory responses from these countries would likely fuel risk-off sentiment, pressuring assets across the board. From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin remains within a multi-degree corrective structure according to the Elliott Wave framework. On the cycle degree, we are in a B-wave; on the primary degree, in an A-wave; on the intermediate degree, in a B-wave; and on the minor degree, in a C-wave. This implies that a short-term move lower is still expected, but once complete, a relief rally of approximately 4% could follow before the onset of a larger correction, likely Primary Wave B. Chart structure suggests that Minor Wave C is in its late stages. Early signs of exhaustion, such as waning downside momentum or bullish reaction at key support zones, could offer clues of an approaching bottom. However, such a rebound should be viewed as temporary and not a trend reversal. Taking a view between the lines on the on-chain data, the liquidity heatmap shows major liquidity around the red rectangle drawn into the chart, suggesting higher prices. Also, the rather low funding rate on futures suggest an exhausted downward trend and a trend reversal in the near future is likely. Conclusion: This week’s calendar offers several macroeconomic catalysts with the potential to move markets. U.S. economic data and tariff policy developments will likely shape near-term sentiment. Technically, Bitcoin remains in a corrective phase with limited downside left before a short-term recovery becomes more probable. Traders should stay alert for signs of a local bottom to position for a tactical bounce—but be cautious, as a larger correction likely looms beyond that. This is no financial advice and for educational purposes only.
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by Phillipklh
Tariffs, Trade Deals, & Central Bank Watch: Key Week in MarketsCME_MINI:NQ1! CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:MNQ1! COMEX:GC1! CME_MINI:MES1! NYMEX:CL1! This is a significant week in terms of macroeconomic headlines, key data releases, central bank decisions, and major trade policy developments. We get numbers for growth, inflation and decision and insights into monetary policy. Combining this with ongoing trade policy developments, we have a key week which may shape how the rest of the year unfolds. Below is a consolidated summary of the latest trade negotiations, scheduled economic releases, and policy outlooks. US - EU Trade Deal: • US–EU Tariffs: The US will impose a 15% tariff on most EU goods, including cars, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals, but retain a 50% tariff on steel and aluminium with a new quota system. • Exemptions: Zero-for-zero tariffs agreed for agriculture, aircraft parts, and chemicals; aircraft exports are temporarily exempt. • EU Commitments: The EU will invest $600 billion in the US and purchase $750 billion in US energy, mainly LNG. • Agriculture: The EU will lower tariffs on many US agricultural goods, though not comprehensively. • Political Reactions: EU leaders are mixed, Germany and the Netherlands praised the deal, France called it unbalanced, and Hungary viewed it unfavorably. • The deal is not final until it is ratified by all EU national parliaments and the EU Parliament. China Talks: US and China expected to extend their trade truce by 90 days. US-China meeting expected in Stockholm on Monday and Tuesday. Trump to freeze export controls to secure a deal. A group of US executives will visit China for trade discussions, organized by the US-China Business Council. South Korea Trade Talks: Korea proposes a shipbuilding partnership with the US and is preparing a trade package. UK–US Relations: PM Starmer and Trump to meet in Scotland to discuss the UK–US trade deal implementation, Middle East ceasefire, and pressure on Russia. Thus far, the US has announced trade deals with the UK, Vietnam, Philippines, Indonesia, Japan and The EU. Trade delegations are working to finalize deals with China, Mexico, Canada Key Economic Data Releases: Monday: Treasury refunding financing estimates. Supply: 2-Year and 5-Year Note Auction, 3 & 6-Month Bill Auction Tuesday: US Advance Goods Trade Balance, Wholesale Inventories Advance, CB Consumer Confidence, JOLTS Job Opening (Jun), Atlanta Fed GDPNow, Australian CPI Q2 Supply: 7-Year Note Auction Wednesday: German GDP Q2, EUR GDP Q2, US ADP Non-farm Employment, US GDP Q2, Crude Oil Inventories, Chinese Manufacturing PMI Canada: BoC Interest Rate Decision, Rate Statement, Monterey Policy Report, BoC Press Conference US: Fed Interest Rate Decision,FOMC Statement, Fed Press Conference. Japan: BoJ Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement Thursday: EU Unemployment (Jun), US PCE & Core PCE Price Index (Jun) Japan: BoJ Press Conference Friday: EU CPI, US NFP, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Michigan 1-Year & 5-Year Inflation Expectations. It is also a busy earnings week. See here for a complete earnings schedule . Markets are interpreting trade deals as positive news thus far. The dollar is strengthening. As we previously mentioned, we anticipate no rate cuts this year as economic data proves to be resilient and inflation largely under control. WSJ also posted an article stating that most tariffs costs are being absorbed by companies due to weaker pricing power. We previously wrote about this on our blog: “ In our analysis, the inflation impact of tariffs may not show up until Q4 2025 or early 2026, as tariff threats are mostly used as a lever to negotiate deals. While effective tariff rates have increased, as Trump reshapes how tariffs are viewed, cost pass-through to consumers will be limited in Q3 2025, as companies’ front-loaded inventory helps mitigate the risks of increased tariff exposure. So, what we have is an interesting development shaping up where, while inflation may rise and remain sticky, it is yet to be seen whether slowing consumer spending will weaken enough to the point where companies must start offering discounts, which would nullify the tariff risk to the end consumer and result in companies absorbing all tariffs. This scenario will see reduced earnings margins leading into the last quarter and early 2026. However, it will materially reduce risks of higher inflation.” In our view, the US dollar has a higher probability to rally in the short-term i.e., Q3 as markets re-align FX rate differentials. Bond yields stabilize, Equities continue pushing higher, while Gold retraces as previously mentioned. This in our view, is what investors and participants refer to as the Goldilocks scenario. If this plays out as expected we anticipate continued strength with AI, tech, energy and defense sectors outperforming into mid- 2026. Institutional View: Morgan Stanley Morgan Stanley also sees no rate cuts in 2025, despite market pricing for two 25 bps cuts. They forecast more aggressive cuts in 2026 due to: • Tariff-related inflation emerging before labor market deterioration • Slowing US growth, as fiscal support fades • Impact of tighter immigration policy and global trade realignment That said, MS continues to cite longer-term risks to the dollar, including: • Twin deficits (fiscal + current account) • Ongoing debate around USD’s safe haven status • USD hedging activity picking up by international investors • Strained credibility of the Fed due to tension between Fed Chair and the US Administration How Fed policy evolves in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 will depend heavily on the incoming Fed Chair nominee, who is expected to replace Jerome Powell in May 2026. This nomination could significantly influence future policy direction around growth and inflation targets.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by EdgeClear
Semiconductors & SOXL: A Bull ThesisWhy Semiconductors? Virtually every single electronic device contains some form of a semiconductor unit within its components. The entire Bull theory on semiconductors as an industry could be reduced to this one sentence. The following, however, will introduce concepts contingent to the understanding of what is shaping the market for semiconductors. The weight of intra-industry, political, macroeconomic, and physical factors discerning an inconceivable upside potential for certain investments carrying maximum exposure to the sector, such as AMEX:SOXL . The last section contains my technical approach to trading SOXL. We begin with the fundamental, and by fundamental, I refer to the simplest reasons for what is happening in the market up until now; [ Early morning Monday, 7/28 ]. Macroeconomic Context Like essentially the rest of the market, SOXL hit its 1 year low of 7.23 USD on Monday, 4/7, following the announcement (and soon postponement) of global tariffs at levels not observed since the early 30's. This of course sparked a panic spiral in the entire market, leading to outflows from the S&P 500 of approximately 70 billion USD during the month of April. During this time we also saw a new, but familiar narrative emerge. Asset Managers, Such as J.P. Morgan set historically low price targets on the S&P 500, going as low as 5,200 USD. They reinforced their PTs with publications warning investors across the world that the risk of recession in the United States was raised to 80%, and this message was relayed across all media in parabolic fashion. While it does not seem too outward to assume an increased risk of recession due to tariffs by looking back on what we learned of the consequences from the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930. There exists a widely overlooked, fundamental , reason as to why I can claim that the REAL risk of recession at the time that J.P. Morgan assigned an 80% risk of recession, was in actuality, 0% (I assume J.P. Morgan knew this but pushed the narrative anyways in order to acquire massive equity at a discount). If anyone has taken introductory macroeconomics in their lifetime, they may be familiar with the function for calculating GDP via the expenditure approach: GDP = C + I + G - NX. Now, why am I referencing high school/college economics basics, the answer to that lies in how we determine our rate of economic growth in the context of tariffs. The part of this formula that we must focus on is NX or Net Exports, the negative factor to GDP. Tariffs, if implemented would effectively decrease import volume, resulting in a smaller Net Exports, and ultimately a higher GDP calculation. Now, what makes this scenario unique, the tariffs having been postponed shortly after their inception, allowed US retailers to engage in front running, or the accelerated purchasing of foreign goods in advance of tariffs. During the month of April, we saw a 5.4% increase in import volume in US west coast ports. This increase in imports effectively caused the inverse impact on GDP growth that import tariffs themselves would have caused: front-running lead to import uptick, leading to a greater Net Exports, which results in lower (negative) GDP growth. Essentially, tariffs in the short-term increases GDP growth (in the long term deadweight loss, and cost structure distortion comes in to play, but that doesn't matter yet), however , tariffs that are announced but not immediately implemented will result in a lower GDP growth, coupled with uncertainty surrounding the whole situation that translated into a cut in CapEx as companies scrambled to determine if tariffs would f*ck them over or not. This argument is further supported by the trends observed in the foreign exchange market. You may have heard in the news that we are experiencing a period of "Dollar Weakness", and while, yes, you can clearly see that the USD has fared rather poorly against other currencies in most major dollar pairs over the past few months. The agent behind this isn't just that the dollar happens to be weak, it is a combination of factors that generate noise and volatility in the forex market. The two main factors highlighted by the media are 1. The obvious political policy instability, pushing bond yields higher, plus a significant debt ceiling raise as per the BBB and 2. the expectations of interest rate cuts over the next year. The other, less recognized major factor to dollar weakness is exactly what we described above: Increased imports means more dollars flowing out of the economy. When these dollars land abroad, they are converted into the native currency, driving down the demand for the dollar. Notice how none of the reasons described above, actually have anything to do with what truly drives foreign exchange markets. Over time, the strength/weakness of a currency is directly correlated to the strength/weakness of the underlying economy. To say that we can expect dollar weakness due to the aforementioned reasons outright ignores the economic growth potential that exists in our economy at this current time, subsiding the out-of-proportion tariff fears as a proponent to an economic crisis. In an all-encompassing view, what I would describe to be occurring on the macro level is a sort of "slingshot" effect: Trade imbalances and private sector response to policy unclarity results in a pullback in economic growth, one that we are now experiencing as a short-term effect. From a medium-long term perspective, assuming that tariffs aren't persistent in the long term, we would see full fledge economic boom, driven by non other than the growth of our technology sector, which at it's core, lies the almighty semiconductor. Growth of AI as a driver of Semiconductor demand: Stable trajectory or Bubble Territory? Having laid the economic framework for picking the general direction our market is heading in, we can now begin to talk about the internal combustion occurring within the world of technology, and the two letter term associated with just about every cool thing in the business world, that is of course AI. Now just to clarify, AI is not new, its been around for at least 20 years and has a well established role in the world prior to the existence of ChatGPT. What changed so drastically in recent years is the breakthrough into a new form of artificial intelligence, known as "Artificial General Intelligence" or AGI. Long story short: AGI's primary difference in the business context is the colossal amount of electrical infrastructure and computing power that is demanded by the development of these mega language models. As a result of the high barrier for entry to this new industry, only 5 AGI companies have arisen to the global stage: OpenAI, Google DeepMind, Anthropic, Microsoft, and DeepSeek. Increasing competition in this space through more players entering the market is unlikely at this time as the cost to create a standalone AGI model is so astronomical. This is a particularly good thing because it tells us that AGI as an industry can result in natural monopolies. The ultra-intensive RnD costs and Data Center infrastructure demands make it more sensical to have a greater number of resources dedicated to producing 1 AGI model, instead of dividing resources to develop multiple less optimized models (similar to how a water company holds a natural monopoly as competition in that industry would result in no foreseeable benefit to it's customers). A further effect from this dynamic lies in how businesses in this industry scale to expand, and its pretty straightforward: the more megawatt computing power a model can access, the more parameters a model can account for, and the more vast the dataset that model can train on, with enhancing speed and efficiency (GPT 4o takes into account >500B parameters in a given query). We see the concept of natural monopoly playing out as the concentration of market capitalization is becoming more extreme where firms like Google, Microsoft, and NVIDIA are absorbing larger share of the market, while trading at ever increasing Price/Earnings multiples. To many, this reflects a trend we saw during the dot com bubble, however what makes the AGI industry different is the nature of the good or service provided. During the dot com boom, companies saw speculative value based on only the fact that their business existed on the .com domain. We know that each of these businesses are unique, providing a good or service across whatever industry they were part of, the only thing having in common was that dot com. The major oversight that took place during the turn of the dot com era was that the success of these businesses wasn't in truth due to them ending in .com, but whether the idea, and execution behind the underlying business is strong or not. Like how Amazon and Facebook saw unparalleled success not just because they were .coms, but because they were pioneering business models that would attract global demand to the services they were providing. The business of AGI has a sort of homogenous property. All AGI companies produce a service that is extremely similar in nature, the only ways they can compete with one another is through Capital Expenditure towards harnessing more computing power. This is the main reason capital is concentrating in a handful of companies trading at high multiples. To me, this is not an indication of a tech bubble but rather a product of how the AGI industry is poised to grow within our economy. AGI as a Factor of Production To get even more philosophical, we can think about how AGI itself enhances economic growth. We already see AGI tools applied in various ways, but the most widespread application pertains to the enhancement of human capital. While it is possible to make AGI models complete ongoing tasks completely on their own with zero human input, its far more common to see AGI tools be used, well, as tools. What I mean is that firms are not looking to replace human workers with AI ones (certain exceptions may include the manufacturing industry), instead they want to integrate AGI tools into their workforce as a means of optimizing regular processes, allowing them to access and process information with tremendous efficiency. The most observable economic outcome of this is firms being able to cut costs in human capital requirements, allowing them to achieve the same level of workflow with a smaller number of employees, or outsourcing solutions to business processes by way of automation utilizing AGI. The possibilities are endless and the economic impact of AGI appears to write itself new economic theory to explain how business growth is accelerating in unprecedented ways. Semiconductor Physical Limitations: Blessing or Burden? In 1965, Gordon Moore articulated his observation which would come to be known as Moore's Law. He observed that the number of transistors in an integrated circuit doubles approximately every 2 years. Based not so much on law of physics, Moore's law describes an empirical relationship between time and the number of transistors per chip, suggesting that the rate of production advancements would allow for such doubling to occur on a biannual basis. And to Gordon's own surprise, he was right. Transistor count for a given chip roughly doubled every 2 years for the following 50 years. However, Gordon also predicted that Moore's Law would come to an end in 2025, where transistor sizes would reach the physical limit of 2 nanometers (10-15 silicon atoms in width). While it may appear as a bottleneck to the semiconductor and AI industry, not being able to fit anymore transistors on one chip, but in reality, this limitation pressures companies to pursue innovations such as semiconductor packaging, which is NVIDIA's bread and butter. This technique allows for the stacking and integrating of many different chips to perform together as one. This technology has already proven wildly successful and is the backbone to virtually all of NVIDIA's GPU products. Google has invented their own method to getting around the physical limitation of silicon chips, producing AI-specialized integrated circuits known as Tensor Processing Units (TPUs). Catering these innovative solutions to expanding the frontier of AGI is almost a given. How to play this market: A Technical Approach If you have made it this far, I commend you. The following describes my approach to analyzing price activity in SOXL: My First entry into SOXL took place on 5/30 with a unit cost of 16.50 USD. Two things can be noted prior to this entry. 1: Fund flows during late February, into March, and through April were extremely high, net inflow of 6.85 Billion USD, however price movement did not reflect the huge inflow until late April/early May where we began to see upward price direction. The beginning of June marked the start of the market bull rally which consolidated into our current price range of 25-28 USD, following contingent earnings releases of NASDAQ:ASML , NYSE:TSM , NASDAQ:NXPI and NASDAQ:INTC . The most recent pullback was a combination of a slightly concerning outlook from ASML, stating that tariffs on the EU would negatively affect projected sales growth for the 2026 fiscal year. As for TSM, there is not one concerning thing that could be said regarding the state of its business growth other than the New Taiwan Dollar gaining considerable strength over the USD amid trade relations between the US and Taiwan, affecting TSM's gross margin by an estimated 6%. NXPI released a sub par earnings and revenue growth outlook, but in my opinion this is not to be too heavily objectified as NXPI produces chips primarily for the Automotive sector, thus making it's sales heavily contingent on supply chain issues being faced by automotive manufacturers in leu of tariffs. NXPI carries a 3.5% market share in semiconductors whereas TSM carries a 68% market share. Lastly, INTC, earnings release I am almost embarrassed to talk about. If it were up to me I'd say they sell their plants in Ohio to TSM and look into opening a fruit stand instead. The most important earnings releases have yet to come though. NASDAQ:MSFT is just around the corner on 7/30, and NASDAQ:NVDA announces on 8/27. These two earnings reports will carry major weight in hinting the overall direction, momentum the market sees in AI demand growth, and the technology sector as a whole. Speculating, I have high expectations that both MSFT and NVDA will top all estimates, pushing the bar higher for 2025 into 2026. If we look at our short-term 50-day SMA/EMA, you will notice a crossover occur on 5/6, a minor indication of a short term positive trend. Alone this is insignificant, but if we look at our 14-day Average True Range, we can see that this crossover aligns with a fall in ATR that would persist between the values of 1.37 and 1.59. This low ATR value signals that trailing volatility is actually quite low for semiconductors, considering the currently mixed market sentiment. Further along we see that price has crossed above both our long-term, 200-day SMA/EMA and a crossover occurred between the two on 7/23, serving as a small indication of a positive long term trend. Once again, not super significant on its own, but you will notice that the convergence aligns perfectly with a sharp increase in fund inflows, netting 491 Million USD in a matter of 3 trading days. If we see a continuation of net inflows over the several days, we can expect a near future extension of our bull rally, a semi-cyclical wave of inflows that concentrate during consolidation periods (which we have seen take place in the current price range between 25-28 USD following my first exit at 27.50 USD). If we extrapolate both our short-term and long-term SMA/EMA, we can anticipate a crossover to occur in the coming days to weeks. If this occurred, that would further reinforce our expectation for a positive long term trend. I have already locked in my entry 2 with a limit order executed at 25 USD. If all of the above conditions are met, I would confidently predict that we may see SOXL trade at around 42 USD in the coming months. One more thing I would like to note, if we zoom out to our 5 year historical price progression, we can identify the previous high of 70.08 USD occurring on 7/11/2024. We know that the bull rally which took place in July of last year can be attributed to the first realization of AI as a driver for semiconductor demand, combined with renewed interest in GPU technology for applications in crypto. If we compare AI-related Capital Expenditure in fiscal year 2024 to AI-related Capital Expenditure of the first half of 2025 fiscal year: 246 Billion USD made up AI-related CapEx for all of 2024, vs first 6 months of 2025, adding up to 320 Billion USD. That is a 30% increase in capex, and we still have another 5-6 months to go. Just some food for thought. Do you believe all of the above has been priced into SOXL, leave your thoughts in the comments! Disclaimer You must obviously keep in mind, SOXL is a 3x leveraged ETF, you can expect volatility with such type of investment. However, in capturing a bullish market, a 3x leveraged investment may produce greater than 3x the returns as the underlying (non leveraged) assets, due to the effect of compounding growth of returns over time. However, the same is true for sideways, or bearish markets, losses may be amplified to greater than 3x. If this is an uncertainty you do not wish to be exposed to, I would opt for the non-leveraged Semiconductor ETF ( NASDAQ:SOXX ), or divide your allocation across the top 5-10 equity holdings of SOXL. Please remember to employ your OWN due diligence before making any investment decision, as none of what I am saying shall serve as financial advise to you, the reader.
AMEX:SOXLLong
by Research_by_Federico
4
Gold 22/07 – Reversal in Sight After $3400? Watch These Key Zone XAUUSD – Intraday Market Outlook (22/07) Gold posted a strong rally in the previous session, completing its short-term impulsive wave structure. However, as price approached the psychological resistance at $3400, it began to lose momentum, and a clear reversal candle appeared — a signal that today’s session may favour a pullback or correction. 🔍 Technical Overview After printing a short-term top, gold is now retracing and has reached a critical support area: the FVG High Zone on the H1 chart. If bearish pressure continues and this level fails to hold, price is likely to drop further in search of deeper liquidity zones. 🔽 Key BUY Zones to Monitor Today ✅ Zone 1 – EL (End Liquidity within FVG): 3367 – 3350 → A zone with strong potential for short-term rebounds due to previous liquidity sweeps. ✅ Zone 2 – Confluence of FIBO 0.5–0.618 + VPOC (3350 – 3335) → A technically significant area where multiple factors align — ideal for medium-to-long term entries. 📌 Trade Setup Ideas 🔸 BUY ZONE: 3351 – 3349 Stop Loss: 3344 Take Profit Targets: 3355 – 3360 – 3365 – 3370 – 3375 – 3380 – 3390 – 3400 – ??? 🔸 BUY SCALP ZONE: 3366 – 3364 Stop Loss: 3360 Targets: 3370 – 3375 – 3380 – 3385 – 3390 🔻 SELL ZONE: 3420 – 3422 Stop Loss: 3427 Targets: 3415 – 3410 – 3405 – 3400 – 3390 – 3385 ⚠️ Market Risk Reminder While no major economic data is expected today, that doesn’t mean the market will stay calm. Unexpected volatility can still arise from geopolitical tensions or unscheduled central bank comments. Gold tends to compress and break out aggressively in low-news environments. 📌 Protect your capital with disciplined Stop Loss and Take Profit levels — no forecast is ever 100% certain. 📈 Strategic Outlook Short-term bias: Market is likely to continue correcting Medium to long-term plan: A deeper pullback could offer an excellent opportunity to build long positions from key demand zones, especially as markets begin to price in potential Fed rate cuts and gold continues its long-term bullish trend. 💬 Be patient, wait for confirmations, and trade with a clear plan — that’s what separates consistency from chaos.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MMFlowTrading
2
XAU/USD Start July 20251. i start after XAU/USD break previous High and correction (fibbo 32.0) respected. based on elliot wave strategy we can targeting end of wave 3 at 3353 area and than correction wave 4 (target at fibbo 32.0 - 50.0). after target correction, continue wave 5 at target 3403 area. 2. fundamentally speaking, new months new quarter. there ins't new catalist and sentiment. Macro Economic this week focus on labour market at US and FED projection to cut rate. 3. War at Iran and Israel, Russia and Ukraine, India and Pakistan, Trade War case, etc,. 4. Will be update
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by RumahCandle
GBP/JPY: A Key Short Setup Forms as Momentum FadesHello traders, Taking a look at GBP/JPY on the 4-hour timeframe. After a significant run, the price action has stalled, and we're seeing clear signs of fading momentum. This is creating a well-defined consolidation zone, which may present a key opportunity for a short position. The Technical Picture 📊 1️⃣ Price Consolidation: GBP/JPY is currently trading sideways within a tight range, highlighted on the chart. This period of indecision and balance between buyers and sellers often precedes a significant directional move. The structure suggests a phase of distribution may be underway. 2️⃣ Fading Momentum: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) confirms this loss of momentum. A sustained reading below the 50 midline would signal that sellers are beginning to gain control and that the path of least resistance is shifting to the downside. The Strategy 🧠 The core idea is to anticipate a bearish breakdown from the identified consolidation zone. A clean break and hold below this range would serve as confirmation that sellers have taken over, providing an opportunity to enter a short position targeting a continuation of the larger bearish move. Trade Parameters 📉 👉 Entry: 198.895 ⛔️ Stop Loss: 201.405 🎯 Take Profit: 192.872 Risk/Reward Ratio: approx. 2.4 This is my personal analysis and perspective, not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and manage your risk accordingly. Good luck, and trade safe.
Short
by MaxellAguiran
ES Weekly Outlook & Game Plan 20/07/2025ES Weekly Outlook & Game Plan 🧠 Fundamentals & Sentiment Market Context: ES continues its bullish momentum, driven by institutional demand and a supportive U.S. policy environment. 📊 Technical Analysis: Price is currently in price discovery, and the weekly structure remains strongly bullish — so I prefer to follow the strength. We might see a minor retracement before pushing further above the all-time high (ATH). 🎯 Game Plan: I'm expecting a potential retracement to the 0.5 Fibonacci level, which is the discount zone in a bullish environment. Interestingly, the 4H liquidity zone aligns perfectly with the 0.5 Fib level — this confluence suggests price may gather enough energy from there to make new highs. ✅ Follow for weekly recaps & actionable game plans.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by UA_CAPITAL
Weekly Macro Brief: Chinese Economic Data, US Inflation, Tariff CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:NQ1! COMEX:GC1! CME:BTC1! CME_MINI:RTY1! COMEX:SI1! CME_MINI:MNQ1! NYMEX:CL1! CME_MINI:M6E1! CBOT:ZN1! CME_MINI:MES1! Highlights this week include Chinese economic data points, UK CPI, US CPI, PPI, and Retail Sales. Inflation data is key, as it comes ahead of the Fed's meeting on July 30th, 2025. Market participants, including institutional investors and futures brokers like EdgeClear, will be scrutinizing these data points closely to monitor global growth and underlying inflation pressures. Fed speakers are scheduled throughout the week. With increasing calls for Fed Chair Powell voluntary resignation and impeachment, the US administration desiring lower rates, the Fed’s independence and credibility to carry out its dual mandate is at risk. It will be interesting to monitor who folds first. Last week’s FOMC minutes revealed a divided Fed on the interest rate outlook, affirming its June dot plot. On the fiscal policy front, we are already witnessing a shift in global trade policies, with many nations making concessions to negotiate trade deals with the world’s largest economy. In our analysis, the inflation impact of tariffs may not show up until Q4 2025 or early 2026, as tariff threats are mostly used as a lever to negotiate deals. While effective tariff rates have increased, as Trump reshapes how tariffs are viewed, cost pass-through to consumers will be limited in Q3 2025, as companies’ front-loaded inventory helps mitigate the risks of increased tariff exposure. So, what we have is an interesting development shaping up where, while inflation may rise and remain sticky, it is yet to be seen whether slowing consumer spending will weaken enough to the point where companies have to start offering discounts, which would nullify the tariff risk to the end consumer and result in companies absorbing all tariffs. This scenario will see reduced earnings margins leading into the last quarter and early 2026. However, it will materially reduce risks of higher inflation. In summary, the complex interplay between tariffs, inflation, and consumer behavior presents critical considerations for traders. EdgeClear, as a dedicated futures broker, remains focused on equipping clients with the insights needed to help navigate this evolving macroeconomic environment. Overnight Data Recap: • Chinese Trade Balance (CNY)(Jun) 826.0B (Prev. 743.6B) • Chinese Trade Balance USD* (Jun) 114.77B vs. Exp. 109.0B (Prev. 103.22B) • Chinese Imports YY* (Jun) 1.1% vs. Exp. 1.3% (Prev. -3.4%) • Chinese Exports YY* (Jun) 5.8% vs. Exp. 5.0% (Prev. 4.8%) Key Economic Releases: • MON: EU 90-Day Retaliatory Pause Ends • TUE: OPEC MOMR, Chinese House Prices (Jun), Retail Sales (Jun), GDP (Q2), EZ Industrial Production (May), German ZEW (Jun), US CPI (Jun), NY Fed Manufacturing (Jul), Canadian CPI (Jun) • WED: UK CPI (Jun), EZ Trade (May), US PPI (Jun), Industrial Production (Jun) • THU: Japanese Trade Balance (Jun), EZ Final HICP (Jun), US Export/Import Prices (Jun), Weekly Claims, Philadelphia Fed (Jul), Retail Sales (Jun) • FRI: Japanese CPI (Jun), German Producer Prices (Jun), US Building Permits/Housing Starts (Jun), Uni. of Michigan Prelim. (Jul) China GDP / Retail Sales/ Housing (TUE): • Q2 GDP is expected to slow to 5.1% Y/Y (vs 5.4% in Q1) and 0.9% Q/Q. • Retail sales have been resilient, but industrial production and investment show signs of weakness; deflation and labor market concerns persist. • Property prices continue to decline, fueling stimulus speculation; policymakers remain cautious, with only modest easing expected (LPR and RRR cuts in Q4). US CPI (TUE) • June CPI expected at +0.3% M/M headline and core, suggesting a modest rebound from May’s subdued figures. • Inflation impact from tariffs seen as temporary; Fed officials maintain a cautious stance with possible rate cuts only if price pressures stay benign. • Markets are pricing near-zero odds for a July rate cut, but still expect two 25bps cuts by year-end in line with Fed guidance. US Retail Sales (THU): • Headline June retail sales expected flat M/M; ex-autos expected to rise +0.3%, showing signs of consumer stabilization. • BofA data shows mild spending rebound, though discretionary service spending continues to weaken, especially among lower-income households. • Spending strength remains concentrated in higher-income cohorts; weakness in wage growth limits broader consumption momentum. US Trade Tensions – Tariffs & Negotiations: • Trump announced 30% tariffs on EU and Mexican goods effective August 1st, separate from sector-specific tariffs. • Trump stated the EU is engaging in talks and South Korea is also pursuing a trade deal. Mexico Response: • President Sheinbaum expects a deal before August 1st but reaffirmed Mexican sovereignty is non-negotiable. • Mexico’s Economy Ministry is negotiating to protect domestic firms and workers, aiming for an alternative resolution. EU Response: • European Commission President von der Leyen warned that 30% tariffs would disrupt key transatlantic supply chains. • The EU will extend suspension of countermeasures until early August but is prepared to respond proportionally if needed. • The EU prefers a negotiated solution and dropped plans for a digital tax, seen as a concession to US tech interests. • Separately, the EU is drafting a broad corporate tax on firms with turnover above EUR 50 million to support its budget.
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by EdgeClear
Why Spain's Market Faces a Challenging Horizon?The IBEX 35, Spain's benchmark equity index, navigates a complex landscape. Despite encouraging macroeconomic indicators, including robust GDP growth and declining unemployment, underlying vulnerabilities persist. Political instability forms a significant headwind. A fragmented parliament, ongoing corruption scandals, and the specter of early elections create an environment of legislative gridlock. This uncertainty directly impacts investor confidence and hinders the effective implementation of crucial reforms and budget approvals, contributing to the IBEX 35's underperformance compared to its European counterparts in 2025. Social tensions further exacerbate the country's domestic challenges. Recent anti-migrant protests, such as those in Torre Pacheco, underscore a societal fragmentation that can deter foreign investment and impact labor dynamics. While immigration is vital for Spain's economic growth, rising anti-immigrant sentiment, potentially exploited by far-right political factions, introduces unpredictability into social cohesion and future policy directions. This confluence of political and social unease creates an unstable backdrop for businesses and investors. Beyond internal dynamics, global factors add to the pressure. Lingering uncertainties surrounding international trade, including potential US tariffs, pose risks for Spain's export-oriented sectors and its globally exposed corporations. Furthermore, while Spain champions renewable energy, persistently high electricity prices due to domestic policies continue to challenge industrial competitiveness. The historical context of ineffective deployment of significant EU NextGenerationEU funds, hampered by political hurdles, also raises concerns about Spain's long-term growth trajectory and its ability to capitalize on recovery initiatives. These combined elements suggest a difficult period ahead for the IBEX 35. Sectors sensitive to domestic policy, such as construction, banking, and real estate, face direct exposure to political uncertainty. Moreover, Spain's traditional reliance on tourism and agriculture makes it susceptible to external shocks, including global travel disruptions and climate change impacts like severe droughts. Investors must carefully assess these multifaceted risks, as they are likely to shape the IBEX 35's performance in the near to medium term.
BME:IBCShort
by UDIS_View
GBP/USD – Macro Outlook & Why It’s a Top Pick This WeekMacro Fundamentals (ENDO): The UK macro backdrop remains inflationary, with solid growth data and resilient employment figures, supporting further GBP strength. Conversely, the US shows increasing deflationary signals and a softer macro pulse. COT Positioning: Institutional positioning is highly supportive, with a 74% long bias and strong “flip percentile.” This shows that “smart money” is increasingly positioned for further GBP/USD upside. Z-Score (Positioning Extremes): There are no extreme positioning imbalances in Z-Score for GBP or USD, suggesting the trend can continue without risk of a mean-reversion squeeze. EXO Signals (Risk/Reward, Bias, Interest Rate Outlook): Risk/reward metrics and bias signals favor the long side. The current risk-on sentiment in global markets also acts as a tailwind for GBP. FX Sentiment: The broader sentiment is risk-on, supporting currencies like GBP that tend to outperform in such environments. Summary & Trading Plan: Bias: Long GBP/USD Conviction: High (9.5/10, all key signals aligned) Ideal Holding Period: 1–3 weeks, as long as risk-on sentiment persists. Exit immediately if risk-off conditions emerge. Why This Pair? Because GBP/USD is the rare case where macro, institutional positioning, and market sentiment all support the same direction. This reduces “crosswinds” and increases the probability of a clean swing move. Watch for sustained risk-on flows and monitor for any macro or sentiment shifts.
Long
by Idealadvantage
DXY CRACK! BAD JUJU!After Trump unilaterally imposed Tariffs (Taxes) on its citizens to buy imported goods from the rest of the world, promising 90 deals in 90 days, "in two weeks", the demand for the dollar payment system has collapsed by -12% reducing purchasing power for all $ holders'. Imports of goods mean exporting $s to the rest of the world. As a world reserve currency (WRC), the US gets the benefit of seeing those $s invested back into the US. That creates demand for the $ payment system, and raises $ holders' purchasing power, reducing inflation. What else happens? A bit complicated but I will try to explain. High demand for $ means the US indirectly exports inflation. Meaning, more $ for the same amount of goods and services. However, as a WRC, the US is not really exporting inflation. That is a bit inaccurate bc the US payment system as a WRC is actually includes a lot more goods and services from the entire planet. This makes sense if you think about it. However only going one way, meaning as long as the demand from the world for our payment system, more $ required by the world reflect more goods and services. As such not inflationary. Now let's reverse it so you can see why it is not entirely accurate. Should the Global Economy (which is worth today about $100 trillion,) demand ever drop off. The $ value will collapse as people sell their $ holdings in exchange for other currencies. What you are seeing right now in this chart with a CRACK in it. The US GDP is currently about $30 trillion. There is no way! A $ payment system designed for a $100T economy can suddenly absorb all those $ in a $30T economy. Inflation would skyrocket as more and more $ chase the same amount of goods and services ($30T). This is not rocket science. This is basic 3rd-grade arithmetic! This CRACK! could be very bad JUJU! CAUTION is in order. Don't let normality bias fool you. No matter how you feel about Trump. It is irrelevant to basic arithmetic.
TVC:DXYShort
by RealMacro
10
AUD/USD: The Clearest Short Opportunity This WeekThis week, the macro and market landscape provides a rare alignment across all major models—making AUD/USD the standout short opportunity among G10 FX pairs. Key Reasons for the Bearish AUD/USD Bias: 1. Commitment of Traders (COT): Institutional positioning has turned decisively bearish on the Australian dollar, with net shorts increasing and sentiment remaining negative. 2. Z-Score & Positioning Extremes: Z-Score indicators confirm a below-average long bias for AUD, highlighting that recent speculative flows are heavily skewed to the short side. 3. EXO/Score Model: Our EXO (macro scoring) model gives AUD/USD a clear SHORT rating, with no offsetting bullish factors in the “core” or “risk/reward” signals. 4. Commodity Edge – Iron Ore: Iron ore prices, a crucial driver for AUD, have sharply declined in recent weeks. This is a classic “canary in the coal mine” for AUD weakness historically, persistent iron ore declines precede broader AUD selloffs. 5. Sentiment & Risk Environment: Despite global “risk-on” sentiment, AUD is unable to benefit, as both macro and market participants rotate away from commodity FX and into USD strength. 6. Endo (Fundamental) Model: While Australia’s macro data still looks solid on a lagging basis, all faster models (positioning, flows, sentiment, commodities) point to an imminent shift typically, ENDO lags in catching turning points. Conclusion & Tactical View: SHORT AUD/USD is the highest conviction trade for this week, backed by full alignment of macro, positioning, sentiment, and real-economy factors. Expect continued downside pressure while commodity markets and COT data remain bearish. For active traders, the first 3–7 days following this setup historically provide the highest reward-to-risk moves.
Short
by Idealadvantage
Bitcoin Strategic Interval – Latency & Asymmetric Bias.⊢ ⟁ BTC/USD – Binance – (CHART: 1D) – (June 20, 2025). ⟐ Analysis Price: $106,025.88. ⊢ ⨀ I. Temporal Axis – Strategic Interval – (1D): ▦ EMA21 – ($105,772.44): ∴ The price remains fractionally above EMA21, retaking the short-term reactive axis; ∴ Despite prior rejection, current candle shows renewed traction with a solid close above; ∴ The slope is flat–rising, signaling the potential reactivation of local trend continuation. ✴️ Conclusion: EMA21 is tentatively reclaimed – a short-term bullish signal under close scrutiny. ⊢ ▦ SMA200 – ($95,921.92): ∴ Long-term structure preserved: price maintains a wide buffer over SMA200; ∴ The moving average exhibits a healthy upward slope, uninterrupted since Q4 2023; ∴ No technical threat detected to the macro-trend structure. ✴️ Conclusion: SMA200 acts as the primary institutional defense line. No stress present. ⊢ ▦ Ichimoku Cloud – (105,899 | 105,738 | 102,433 | 105,576 | 106,025): ∴ Price is nestled precisely within the flat upper cloud band – a known zone of consolidation; ∴ Span A and B are beginning to flatten, suggesting temporary exhaustion of momentum; ∴ Chikou remains above price – confirming trend integrity. ✴️ Conclusion: Ichimoku signals a pause, not a break – directional clarity pending. ⊢ ▦ MACD (12,26,9) – (Histogram: -364.87 | MACD: 257.20 | Signal: 622.06): ∴ Bearish histogram remains negative, but shrinking for three sessions; ∴ MACD line curling upward with initial convergence to Signal line; ∴ Reversal signal forming but not yet triggered. ✴️ Conclusion: Early signs of MACD cross; confirmation requires follow-through. ⊢ ▦ RSI – (53.17 | Avg: 51.74): ∴ RSI reclaims neutral-positive zone, stabilizing above 50; ∴ Structure shows divergence fading, with momentum recovering slowly; ∴ Still far from exhaustion thresholds. ✴️ Conclusion: RSI favors the bulls with cautious optimism. ⊢ ▦ Volume (Last 5 Days): ∴ Volume remains muted, averaging 110–120k Bitcoin/day; ∴ No aggressive buy or sell pressure confirmed; ∴ Current move lacks conviction – suggests passive spot activity. ✴️ Conclusion: Price is advancing without volume confirmation – fragility persists. ⊢ 🜎 Strategic Insight – Technical Oracle: ∴ Structural trend remains intact and undisturbed on the macro scale; ∴ Short-term bullish reclaim of EMA21 within the cloud, but momentum and volume still lag; ∴ Absence of conviction demands validation from price action or macro catalyst. ⊢ ∫ II. On-Chain Intelligence – (Source: CryptoQuant): ▦ 🝰 Exchange Inflow Mean - (MA7): ∴ Metric sits near historic lows (≈0.4 BTC), denoting multi-week suppression of inflows; ∴ Correlates directly with reduced sell-side pressure from whales and institutions; ∴ Price structure remains unchallenged by inflow spikes – consistent with strategic holding. ✴️ Conclusion: Absence of fear or distribution among large holders – bullish backdrop intact. ⊢ ▦ 🜍 Estimated Leverage Ratio – (Current: 0.259): ∴ Leverage steadily increasing, now entering historical danger zone; ∴ Elevated risk of cascade liquidations on any sharp downside move; ∴ Suggests the current rally is not organically fueled by spot demand. ✴️ Conclusion: Price structure is leveraged, not grounded – risk of synthetic instability. ⊢ ▦ 🝗 Exchange Reserves - (Binance) – (≈544.5K BTC): ∴ Continuous net outflows – multi-month drain confirmed; ∴ Reflects silent accumulation or self-custody migration; ∴ No exchange-driven supply pressure visible. ✴️ Conclusion: Structural supply depleting – passive bullish signal. ⊢ ▦ ⚒ Miners’ Position Index - (MPI) – (-1.1): ∴ Readings below 0 indicate minimal miner distribution; ∴ Suggests miners are confident, or at least not forced to sell at current levels; ∴ Historically coincides with market support zones. ✴️ Conclusion: Miner behavior aligned with trend preservation – not resistance. ⊢ ▦ 🜚 Funding Rate - (All Exchanges) – (+0.003): ∴ Rates mildly positive, indicating slight dominance of long positioning; ∴ No excessive funding imbalance – healthy sentiment baseline; ∴ Reflects controlled bullish bias with no speculative overheating. ✴️ Conclusion: Longs exist, but not in a way that endangers trend integrity. ⊢ 🜎 Strategic Insight – On-Chain Oracle: ∴ On-chain metrics echo the technical chart: structurally sound, short-term vulnerable; ∴ Long-term holders remain disengaged from distribution behavior; ∴ The system is healthy, but carries hidden leverage that may trigger volatility. ⊢ ⧉ III. Contextvs Macro–Geopoliticvs – Interflux Economicus: ▦ 🇺🇸 United States – Federal Axis & Risk Channels: ∴ Treasury Yield Curve remains slightly positive (+0.44%), removing short-term recession signal; ∴ 10Y yield elevated at 4.42% – reflects sustained inflation resistance and risk demand; ∴ Fed has signaled no rate cuts before September – QT policy remains; ∴ Speculative expectations for only 1–2 cuts in 2025; ∴ Trump administration signals potential military action in Iran, igniting geopolitical risk premium. ✴️ Conclusion: U.S. monetary regime is steady–tight; geopolitical volatility injects asymmetric risk into crypto valuations. ⊢ ▦ 🇨🇳 China – Internal Stimulus & Soft Deflation: ∴ Industrial Production slows to +5.8% YoY – weakest in 6 months; ∴ Retail sales climb to +6.4% YoY due to stimulus programs ("618 event", consumption vouchers); ∴ PPI remains deflationary (-3.3% YoY), compressing industrial margins; ∴ Fiscal revenue down -0.3% YTD – signals internal fragility despite easing efforts. ✴️ Conclusion: China is applying targeted stimulus, but lacks decisive global impact – neutral crypto flow effect. ⊢ ▦ 🇪🇺 European Union – Disinflation & Rate Reversal: ∴ HICP inflation falls to 1.9% – below ECB’s 2.0% target; ∴ ECB cuts deposit rate by 25bps – now 2.00%; ∴ PMI Composite remains below 50 – economic contraction underway; ∴ ECB forward guidance signals data-dependence and hesitation for further cuts. ✴️ Conclusion: Europe is easing rates amidst stagnation – weak driver for global risk flows. ⊢ 🜎 Strategic Insight – Interflux Macro Oracle: ∴ U.S. tight policy + Iran tension = dual pressure point on risk assets; ∴ China’s mild stimulus is not yet globally inflationary – no volatility trigger; ∴ EU drifts silently – supportive, but irrelevant to Bitcoin in current configuration; ∴ Global system is stable in appearance, but tactically charged beneath – setup aligns with Bitcoin volatility potential. ⊢ IV. ♝ Market Sentiment - Media & Institutional Lens: ▦ The Block – Corporate Stockpiling Thesis: ∴ Ongoing accumulation of Bitcoin by public and private entities continues across Q2; ∴ Institutional wallets showing strategic DCA behavior – interpreted as positioning for either macro easing or geopolitical hedge; ∴ Unlike past cycles, no major corporate selloffs have been detected. ✴️ Conclusion: Institutional base remains in passive accumulation – potential catalyst insulation. ⊢ ▦ CoinDesk – Sentiment Report – BTC at $92K Risk Threshold: ∴ Despite price climbing above $106K, analysts caution of technical rejection scenarios; ∴ Zones near $92K identified as high-liquidity, high-reaction clusters; ∴ Chart analysis frames current movement as vulnerable if macro catalysts turn hawkish. ✴️ Conclusion: Sentiment remains cautiously bullish but alert to correction windows. ⊢ ▦ InfoMoney – U.S. Military Risk – Iran Strike Potential: ∴ Reported internal briefing of U.S. military planning toward Iranian targets; ∴ Trump’s media team leveraging geopolitical strength posture to influence sentiment; ∴ Markets (Dow Futures) showing pre-market decline on the headline. ✴️ Conclusion: Bitcoin holds narrative premium under geopolitical fear – but risk surge remains volatile. ⊢ 🜎 Strategic Insight – Media Oracle: ∴ The crypto narrative is suspended between structural trust (institutional accumulation) and external fear (macro-political instability); ∴ Bitcoin presently benefits from asymmetric narrative positioning — but lacks transactional confirmation; ∴ Media flows suggest that sentiment will pivot swiftly if Powell’s tone confirms further hawkish stance or if Iran tension escalates. ⊢ ⊢ ⚜️ Magister Arcanvm (𝟙⟠) – Vox Primordialis! ⚖️ Wisdom begins in silence. Precision unfolds in strategy. ⊢ ⌘ Codicillus Silentii – Strategic Note: ∴ The 1D reclaim of EMA21 inside the Ichimoku flat cloud reflects a market in suspended potential, where trend continuation and failure share equal weight; ∴ On-chain dynamics remain structurally undisturbed, yet veiled in a fragile layer of leveraged positioning; ∴ Exchange reserves continue their descent, detaching the market from traditional sell-side threat, but increasing reliance on thin liquidity zones; ∴ Macro vectors (Fed policy + Middle East tension) hover as dual shadows, capable of igniting volatility without prelude; ∴ Institutional accumulation remains active, but no longer decisive - the market awaits external ignition, not internal strength; ∴ Sentiment is asymmetrically bullish, yet explicitly unconfirmed in transactional volume and price aggression; ∴ The system is quiet - not because it is resolved, but because it is observing itself. This is a moment of ritual latency. ⊢ ⌘ Market Status – Tactical Mode: ✴️ Strategic Position: “Structurally Bullish – Tactically Suspended”; ✴️ Primary Mode: “Observation Priority”; ✴️ Tactical Stance:  ∴ No active positioning expansion without confirmation beyond Ichimoku flat zone;  ∴ Watch for MACD confirmation and volume acceleration;  ∴ Monitor geopolitical escalation and Powell’s tone – both capable of shifting structural balance. ✴️ Directional Bias: Neutral–Bullish, contingent upon validation; ✴️ Key Zone of Collapse Risk: $92,000; ✴️ Ascent Gate: $110,800 + (confirmation threshold). ⊢
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by Magister_Arcanvm