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Bitcoin USD — Weekly Flat TPO Top 116.077 | Testing Conviction o🧭 Context Bitcoin has rewarded patient structure traders this week — a near +10% advance from the range lows, holding daily supports “like clockwork.” We remain inside the bearish daily range, but momentum has clearly rotated upward through volume participation. The internal rhythm continues to expand toward the upper pivot, with liquidity building near the prior TPO top. 📊 Technical Map Volume expansion off the range lows has confirmed strength, but structure still defines risk. Daily pivot target sits at 114,082, an ideal partial zone. Next major liquidity magnet aligns with the weekly flat TPO high at 116.077 — a zone where price historically hesitates. Closing above 116.077 would flip structural bias bullish; rejection here likely resets next week’s rotation lower. Patience remains the real edge — take partials, trail stops, and let structure lead, not emotion. 🌐 Fundamental Pulse This week’s tone stays dollar-driven. The U.S. Dollar Index has been steady as traders await fresh macro cues. Next week brings U.S. ISM PMI and NFP, both capable of reigniting volatility across crypto and risk assets. Keep in mind: Bitcoin’s recent strength often fades when real yields firm — the impact mechanism remains the same: liquidity flows follow rate expectations. 🎯 Plan Trail stops behind range lows, book partials at 114,082, and monitor reaction near 116.077. If weekly closes above that level, structural bias shifts; otherwise, expect rotation back into range mid. Weekend traders — stay disciplined, not greedy. The market rewards clarity, not hope. 🧠 Mindset Every rally feels easy after it happens. The pro separates confidence from euphoria. Trade what structure confirms — not what emotion predicts. Enjoy the weekend, protect profits, and respect the range.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by CORE5DAN
Gold XAUUSD Macro map for 27 to 31 Oct 2025Macro map for 27 to 31 Oct 2025 Concentration of policy and inflation prints means policy expectations and real yields will drive the United States dollar, global equities, bitcoin, and gold. The hinge events are Wednesday FOMC, Thursday US GDP advance and German data, Friday US Core PCE and Chicago PMI. Secondary drivers are BoJ policy guidance and ECB tone, plus BoC. Watch list Real ten year yield and the DXY dollar index after FOMC and PCE EUR front end versus USD front end after ECB and FOMC VIX around the FOMC window and into PCE US liquidity windows around 14:00 Eastern on Wednesday and 08:30 Eastern on Thursday and Friday Gold outlook for next week Set up Gold trades the sign and size of moves in real yields and the dollar. Policy guidance and inflation prints are therefore the core drivers. A patient or cautious Fed, softer Core PCE, and any rise in macro uncertainty support gold through lower real yields and safe haven demand. A hawkish tilt and firmer PCE pressure it by lifting the opportunity cost of holding a non yielding asset. Baseline view The tape prefers a slow glide toward price stability without a growth accident. That backdrop keeps real yields contained or drifting lower and supports gold on dips. The opposite mix lifts real yields and weighs on the metal. Flows often scale in after the first spike around FOMC and PCE once spreads and liquidity stabilize. Scenarios and probabilities Upside continuation or breakout. Probability forty. Triggers are a patient FOMC and cooler PCE that push real yields down. A softer dollar would reinforce the move. Balanced consolidation inside the recent weekly band. Probability thirty. Triggers are mixed signals across events and no major shift in real yields. Pullback to prior support. Probability thirty. Triggers are firmer PCE or hawkish communication that lifts real yields. Dollar strength would confirm. Key confirms and risks Track the ten year real yield and the DXY. If real yields fall while the dollar is flat the setup still favors gold. If both rise, risk control becomes priority. Liquidity can thin quickly in the first minutes after data and during press events. Use predefined risk units and avoid adding into fast markets.
TVC:GOLD
by exlux
SPY and QQQ Macro outlook for 27 to 31 Oct 2025Macro map for 27 to 31 Oct 2025 Concentration of policy and inflation prints means policy expectations and real yields will drive the United States dollar, global equities, bitcoin, and gold. The hinge events are Wednesday FOMC, Thursday US GDP advance and German data, Friday US Core PCE and Chicago PMI. Secondary drivers are BoJ policy guidance and ECB tone, plus BoC. Watch list Real ten year yield and the DXY dollar index after FOMC and PCE EUR front end versus USD front end after ECB and FOMC VIX around the FOMC window and into PCE US liquidity windows around 14:00 Eastern on Wednesday and 08:30 Eastern on Thursday and Friday SPY and QQQ outlook for next week Set up US equities enter a policy and growth triad. Wednesday brings the FOMC decision and press conference. Thursday brings the first look at Q3 growth. Friday brings the price index that the Fed emphasizes. The path for real yields and the earnings tone are the first order drivers. Valuation sensitivity is higher in QQQ due to the weight of long duration cash flows. SPY has more cyclicals and defensives and therefore reacts more to growth beats or misses. Baseline view A patient Fed message combined with growth that is solid but not hot and inflation that continues to ease supports a grind higher. The market prefers falling real yields with inflation in check. A hawkish shift in the balance of risks, or a hot inflation print that lifts terminal pricing, pressures multiples and skews returns lower. If messages conflict, expect a whipsaw week with heavy rotation. Scenarios and probabilities Relief grind higher with QQQ leadership. Probability thirty eight. Triggers are a patient tone on Wednesday, a growth print that shows resilience without overheating, and Core PCE that validates disinflation. Breadth improves and volatility stays contained. Air pocket lower. Probability thirty two. Triggers are a firmer Core PCE or a hawkish shift in the statement language that pushes real yields up. Valuation compression hits QQQ first and deepest. SPY holds better if staples and energy carry. Two way chop with wide intraday bars. Probability thirty. Triggers are mixed messages across events and sectors. Expect quick moves around 14:00 Eastern on Wednesday and 08:30 Eastern on Thursday and Friday with mean reversion later in the day. Key confirms Watch the ten year real yield and the curve. A drop in real yields with stable breakevens favors a risk appetite day. A jump in real yields with a firm dollar and tight financial conditions favors de‑risking. Also watch VIX and the put call ratio into Wednesday afternoon to gauge dealer positioning. Risk notes Large cap earnings that land between FOMC and PCE can add idiosyncratic gaps. Respect prior week high and low as regime markers. If the market opens outside that range and fails to re enter on a retest, trend day odds increase.
AMEX:SPY
by exlux
Tech & Rates: The Unstoppable Force Driving USD/JPY SkywardThe USD/JPY exchange rate has exhibited a clear upward trend, recently touching a one-week high before a slight pull-back to around 151.74. This sustained yen weakness reflects a convergence of factors across global finance, domestic Japanese policy, and international relations. Traders must analyze these multi-faceted pressures to accurately forecast future movements. Domestic Japanese Fiscal Expansion Japan's new Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, is preparing an aggressive economic stimulus package likely exceeding last year's $13.9$ trillion yen ($92.19$ billion). This expansionary fiscal policy aims to counter rising inflation and support household incomes. Markets anticipated this policy shift, contributing to the yen's $2.6\%$ decline this month, its biggest monthly drop since July. A combination of significant fiscal spending and a challenging relationship with the central bank typically weighs heavily on a currency. Geopolitical Instability and Safe Havens Global political risk typically favors the U.S. dollar, cementing its position as the world's primary reserve currency. The ongoing $\mathbf{U.S.}$ $\mathbf{government}$ $\mathbf{shutdown}$, now into its third week, injects domestic uncertainty. This standoff complicates the Fed’s data-driven decision-making, potentially reinforcing expectations for rate cuts, which can weaken the dollar. Despite this, the dollar index (DXY) remains resilient at $98.84$. A brief drop in gold prices recently triggered market volatility and a rebalancing of safe-haven assets, briefly allowing the yen to climb. Yet, the persistent US political gridlock maintains a background risk premium that supports the dollar as the ultimate haven. Geostrategy and Technology Competition Geostrategic competition, especially involving China, supports the USD through capital flow redirection. Diversification and resilience strategies in global supply chains lead to investment shifts toward Southeast Asia and other strategic areas, often bypassing the yen. Furthermore, the dollar benefits from the High-Tech sector's dominance. High-tech and cyber security, and the associated intellectual property (IP), including patent families, are key drivers of economic growth. A country's strength in technology, quantified by international patents, significantly impacts its currency's global competitiveness and valuation, often bolstering the dollar’s perceived "soft power" relative to the yen. (www.worldscientific.com) Conclusion and Outlook The primary drivers of the USD/JPY's ascent are the widening interest rate differential and Japan’s expansionary fiscal outlook. While a short-term correction occurred due to safe-haven rebalancing, the structural forces remain dollar-positive. The US government shutdown presents a risk, but its historical impact on the dollar has typically been modest and short-lived. Traders should expect USD/JPY to test new highs, especially if the new Japanese fiscal policy exacerbates bond market concerns.
Long
by the5erstrading
1
Gold (XAUUSD) Weekly TF 2025Overview This analysis outlines the structural Fibonacci confluences, scenario planning, and macro-aligned projections for Gold (XAUUSD) on the weekly timeframe. It integrates multi-layered Fibonacci extensions and retracements, mapping out key support and resistance levels, and proposes a nuanced primary scenario that includes both intermediate rallies and corrective movements. Primary Scenario – Multi-Stage Movement Hypothesis We anticipate that gold may initially extend higher from the current level (~$3,325) to test the 127.2% Fibonacci extension at $3,435, with the possibility of a further intermediate peak near $3,500. This level marks a psychological and technical resistance zone and could act as a temporary top. Following this local peak, a corrective phase may unfold. This pullback could evolve into one of the two outlined correction scenarios: 1 TP Correction Scenario Support Target: ~$2,950 Basis: 100% Fib extension confluence and prior resistance turned support Expected Outcome: Price stabilizes at this level and resumes upward momentum 2 TP Correction Scenario Support Target: ~$2,650 Basis: Strong historical structure + 100% Fib confluence from a broader cycle Expected Outcome: This zone acts as a long-term demand accumulation area Upon completion of the corrective structure, we expect gold to reinitiate its primary bullish trend. Bullish Continuation Targets TP1: ~$4,050 (161.8% Fibonacci extension) TP2: ~$4,319 (261.8% Fibonacci extension) These targets align with macroeconomic conditions, central bank accumulation trends, and long-term structural cycles. Supporting Technicals RSI: Holding above 50, indicating preserved bullish momentum MACD: Positive crossover with widening histogram on weekly timeframe Price Action: Strong support zone between $3,280–$3,300 aligning with 161.8% Fib retracement of the recent minor wave Macro Fundamentals & Correlations Central Bank Gold Demand: Sustained net buying by BRICS nations, particularly China and Russia, supports the structural bid on gold Fed Policy: Market anticipates a prolonged pause or gradual rate cuts, favoring non-yielding assets like gold DXY & US10Y Yields: Any further decline in DXY or softening yields would add tailwinds to gold Crypto Correlation: During inflationary hedging or systemic risk periods, gold and crypto may correlate positively, especially with weakening USD Intermarket Relationships: Gold, DXY, and TOTAL (Crypto Market Cap) Gold vs. DXY (US Dollar Index) Gold historically maintains an inverse correlation with DXY. A rising DXY tends to apply downward pressure on gold prices, while a falling DXY enhances gold's upside momentum. Scenario Interactions: If DXY breaks below 98, this could validate the bullish scenario for gold toward $3,435–$4,050. If DXY rallies back above 100, it could trigger the correction scenarios ($2,950 or $2,650) in gold. Gold vs. TOTAL (Crypto Market Cap) Gold and TOTAL may show positive correlation during periods of USD weakening and global liquidity expansion. Scenario Interactions: If gold rallies toward $3,500 and TOTAL also breaks key resistance (e.g., $1.8T–$2T), this signals synchronized bullish risk appetite. If gold corrects while TOTAL continues to rise, it could indicate rotation of liquidity from defensive to risk-on assets. A simultaneous correction in both may occur if DXY strengthens aggressively or if macro shocks reduce global liquidity. These intermarket relationships should be monitored continuously to assess the evolving macro context and validate the chosen scenario. In the case of a gold correction toward $2,950 or $2,650, the impact on altcoins will hinge on the prevailing macroeconomic backdrop. If the correction stems from a healthy, technical rebalancing within a risk-on environment—without a concurrent surge in the U.S. dollar—it could signal a shift in capital from defensive assets like gold into more speculative plays, including altcoins. This type of capital rotation often benefits the crypto market, particularly if TOTAL (crypto market cap) holds or advances structurally. However, if the correction is caused by rising dollar strength, tightening financial conditions, or broader risk-off sentiment, altcoins may instead suffer alongside gold, as liquidity is withdrawn across the board. Therefore, the context and drivers behind gold’s correction are crucial in assessing its downstream effects on altcoin performance. From a philosophical lens, gold's cyclical ascent and retreat mirrors the rhythm of nature and human experience—expansion, contraction, and renewal. Just as rivers carve valleys before surging toward the ocean, the market too must surrender gains to gather force. A correction in gold is not merely a financial event, but a moment of recalibration—an inhale before the next exhale of momentum. It invites reflection: whether wealth seeks refuge or ventures into risk, whether fear contracts or ambition expands. In this interplay, altcoins may inherit the restless spirit of capital in search of yield, as gold, the ancient anchor of value, briefly pauses in its timeless journey. Conclusion We present a multi-phased path for gold where: An initial bullish breakout toward $3,435–$3,500 forms a short- to mid-term peak A subsequent correction brings gold to either $2,950 or $2,650, depending on macro triggers A renewed bull rally drives gold toward $4,050 and potentially $4,319 and beyond This scenario reflects both the cyclical nature of market structure and the macro-fundamental backing that continues to support long-term gold strength.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by BitonGroup
DXY — Between Balance and Breakout Date: Sunday, October 19 Timeframe: Daily Analyst: @CORE5DAN Context The U.S. Dollar Index holds a bullish daily range between 99.197 and 97.048, now sitting around the Fibonacci 50% retracement at 97.044. Friday’s session formed a tight box — high 98.190, low 97.672 — showing compression inside balance conditions. Price trades above mid-range, with a volume imbalance near 97.436 acting as a magnet for short-term rotation. Key liquidity rests just below 97.700, and reactions there could define early-week direction. Technical Map • Structure: Short-term bullish, still inside a broader weekly bearish framework. Watch 97.436–97.700 — a clean reaction zone where imbalance and liquidity converge. • Momentum: Range-bound bullish, confirming control but lacking expansion. A daily close above 98.190 opens the path toward the range high at 99.197. • Volume: Imbalance remains unfilled — ideal for mean-reversion setups before any breakout impulse. Fundamental Pulse (Week Ahead) • Macro Drivers: — US GDP advance data: key for growth tone. — Core PCE inflation: the Fed’s favored inflation gauge. — Fed speakers and PMIs: tone setters for November rate outlook. • Yields: — The 10-year sits near 4.6%. — A push higher = bullish Dollar, stronger short-term flows. — A pullback = potential consolidation across USD pairs. • Global Flows: — Mild rotation out of risk assets and emerging markets supports the Dollar. — EURUSD and XAUUSD both reflect this hesitation near key supports. Plan Bias stays bullish in the short term, bearish in the long term. We favor volume imbalance fills and reaction trades at 97.436–97.700 before re-evaluating structure. If macro data or yield spikes support Dollar demand, expect continuation toward 98.190+. Otherwise, a drift below 97.436 would signal distribution and confirm corrective pressure. “Structure is the compass; sentiment is the weather.” Mindset Pulse “Authority comes from clarity, not prediction.” Trade what’s confirmed — not what’s comfortable.
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by CORE5DAN
DXY — 4H Fibonacci Discount ZoneDXY — 4H Fibonacci Discount Zone: bounce or breakdown? Context (4H | Pre-London | 16 Oct) Dollar Index is testing a 50% Fibonacci discount zone after an overnight -2 deviation. Volume remains light, but buyers stepped in near the 98.2 region, defending short-term structure. Big picture still leans bearish Technical Map • Structure: Consolidation within broader bearish context — 4H recovery attempts forming. • Key Level: 98.2 acting as short-term decision point; deviation off 50% Fib zone. • Momentum: −2 deviation within 4H range — early shift toward mean reversion. • Volume: Heavy order flow support beneath 98.0; thin liquidity overhead until 98.6. Structure overall remains bearish, but short-term momentum favors a corrective bid from the Fibonacci discount zone. Fundamental Pulse The Fed minutes gave us a small dip in yields, but the Dollar didn’t flinch — it’s still holding firm. Sticky inflation keeps the Fed cautious, reinforcing that “higher-for-longer” tone. Now all eyes turn to today’s CPI at 15:30 EET — the real test for rate expectations. For now, rates steady, risk tone calm, traders waiting for direction. Plan (If/Then) If DXY pushes above 98.6, expect momentum toward the 99.0 zone. Break below 98.05 reopens path toward 97.6–97.4 support band. R:R potential ≈ 1 : 3 — solid setup if volatility expands post-CPI. Stay patient and scale small before the CPI lands. Mindset Pulse Observation beats anticipation. Let price confirm your story, not the other way around. Stay aligned with structure; one mouse click can cost a narrative.
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by CORE5DAN
Why Oil’s Drop Fuels a Global Risk-Off SentimentWTI Crude Oil Monthly Technical Outlook: Below $60 and the Broader Market Implications As the fourth quarter of 2025 unfolds, the WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) chart offers a critical perspective on the state of global supply-demand balance and its broader impact on market sentiment. Trading near $58.5 per barrel, oil prices have fallen below a key psychological threshold, and while the move may seem technical at first, its implications reach far beyond the energy market. The combination of weakening momentum indicators, rising supply projections, and softening global demand paints a nuanced but important story: oil’s slide below $60 is no longer just a chart event, it’s a macro signal about global growth, supply dynamics, and investor positioning. Technical Overview: Momentum Loss Deepens The monthly chart for WTI shows a clear picture of fatigue after multiple failed rebound attempts over the past 18 months. Since peaking near $130 in early 2022, prices have formed a persistent pattern of lower highs and lower lows, reflecting an extended process of distribution. In recent months, WTI has failed to sustain moves above $70, with sellers consistently stepping in on rallies. The October bar extended losses toward the $58 level, marking the weakest monthly close since mid-2023. Structurally, this decline puts WTI in a critical support zone between $55 and $57, which coincides with the base that previously stabilized prices in late 2023. Should this zone fail, the next major support rests around $50 per barrel, aligning with a key Fibonacci retracement of the 2020–2022 rally. On the upside, the resistance band remains in the $65–$68 range, a descending trendline that has capped every rebound since early 2024. A decisive monthly close above that zone would be the first confirmation of renewed strength, but momentum indicators are still leaning toward continued weakness or sideways consolidation. MACD and Stochastic RSI: Weakening Momentum Signals The MACD (12,26,9) indicator remains subdued below the zero line, underscoring a prolonged loss of upside momentum. The histogram has recently turned red again, indicating that the MACD line may cross below the signal line, a potential confirmation that sellers still control the trend. Meanwhile, the Stochastic RSI, which measures RSI velocity, has rolled over from midrange levels and is pointing lower again. Its failure to sustain a rebound above 50 shows that bullish energy has faded. If this oscillator drops below 30, it would confirm a continuation of weak-to-neutral price action through the rest of Q4. Historically, such conditions precede prolonged consolidation phases, where volatility contracts before a new trend forms. Together, these indicators portray a market not in full capitulation, but clearly lacking conviction for an upside breakout. Fundamental Picture: Oversupply Meets Slowing Demand While technical signals reveal a loss of momentum, the fundamental backdrop provides stronger clues about why oil has struggled to maintain value above $60. Recent data from major energy agencies, including the International Energy Agency (IEA), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), and multiple Reuters reports, converge on one central theme: the global oil market is entering a surplus phase, with supply growth outpacing demand. Large Oversupply Projections Read full analysis on my website darrismanresearch com
TVC:USOIL
by mrifkidrn
Macro Alert: The Stealth Flight 2 Alts (Tariffs, Gold & Privacy)🚨 MACRO ALERT: The Silent Surge — Altcoins Accumulating Undetected Since April Chart: CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS.D ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📊 The Setup While the mainstream remains fixated on Bitcoin's swings, a quiet but significant capital rotation into altcoins is underway. This move, largely undetected by the broader market, is being fueled by shifting global macroeconomic tides and a growing institutional hunt for wealth preservation and financial privacy . ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔴 THE CRISIS: Multiple System Failures Converging 🏦 BIS Warning: Global Liquidity Crisis ↓ 🇯🇵 Japan: Unsustainable debt from fiscal stimulus 🇫🇷 France: 0.6% growth in 2025, economic stagnation ↓ 💸 Coordinated failure of fiat monetary policy ⛓️ Government Attacks on Safe Havens ↓ 🇺🇸 U.S. Gold Tariffs: 39% on major imports Physical metals face capital controls & taxation attacks Traditional assets no longer safe from state control 🔒 Even Crypto Has Centralization Issues ↓ 📜 GENIUS Act: Stablecoins expand M2 money supply (monetizing debt via blockchain) 🏢 XRP: Concentrated token control raises manipulation concerns ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🟢 THE SOLUTION: Where Capital Is Flowing Smart money is seeking assets with: • TRUE decentralization • Privacy features • Fixed supply • Institutional-grade infrastructure The Data Confirms It: 🔐 Privacy Coins (XMR, ZEC): +71.6% in 2025 📊 CRYPTOCAP:BTC: +27.1% 📊 CRYPTOCAP:ETH: +33.4% 📈 OTHERS.D: Rising quietly This is sophisticated money moving in, not retail FOMO. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 💥 The Macro Catalyst: Why This Is Happening Now ⚡ Gold Under Attack: The recent 39% U.S. tariff on major gold imports has rattled the traditional safe-haven market, creating artificial scarcity and signaling a broader trend of government control over monetary assets . When even physical metals face intervention, capital seeks alternatives outside increasingly controlled systems. 🚨 The BIS Warning Nobody Is Discussing: The Bank for International Settlements is quietly sounding alarms on global liquidity risks: • 🇯🇵 Japan's fiscal stimulus → unsustainable debt levels • 🇫🇷 France → 0.6% growth (stagnation) • 💸 Result: Coordinated fiat monetary policy failure 🪤 The Stablecoin Trap: The U.S. GENIUS Act is expanding M2 money supply through the back door via stablecoins: → Legitimizing stablecoin issuance backed by Treasury bonds → Monetizing debt while calling it "innovation" → This isn't decentralization—it's the Fed with a blockchain wrapper ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🎯 Macro Pressure → Altcoin Opportunities 😰 Worried About: Wealth Confiscation/Control 💡 Consider: Financial Sovereignty & Privacy 🔍 Examples: CRYPTOCAP:XMR , CRYPTOCAP:ZEC 📈 Catalyst: Zcash surged 150%+ on institutional demand (Grayscale Trust) 😰 Worried About: Currency Devaluation & Inflation 💡 Consider: Scarce, Decentralized Stores of Value 🔍 Examples: Altcoins with fixed supplies + robust decentralized governance 🔑 Key: Assets that can't be inflated or controlled by single entities 😰 Worried About: Traditional Finance Instability 💡 Consider: Institutional-Grade Blockchain Infrastructure 🔍 Examples: HBAR (corporate governance) & XRP (cross-border payments) ⚠️ Note: Focus on real-world utility beyond speculation ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ What to Watch For ✅ Confirmation: Strong, high-volume breakout above recent range high on CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS.D 🔍 The Privacy Pulse: Continued strength in privacy coins ( CRYPTOCAP:XMR , CRYPTOCAP:ZEC , XVG.D) is a key leading indicator. Note: Privacy coins face regulatory challenges and have been delisted from some major exchanges. ❌ Invalidation: Break and close below key support zone (April low structure) would suggest macro fears haven't overcome broader market uncertainty. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🎯 The Bottom Line The gold tariff is a symptom of a larger disease: eroding trust in neutral, non-government monetary assets . This is forcing a "regime change" in capital allocation. As this realization dawns on more investors, the quiet accumulation in altcoins—particularly those offering privacy, sovereignty, and real-world utility —could explode into the next major market narrative. 💭 Smart money is moving early. The question is: will you recognize this shift before it becomes obvious? ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is macroeconomic observational analysis and is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research (DYOR) and manage risk appropriately. Cheers!
CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS.DLong
by aigentic_crypto
1
BTC vs USD: Macro Liquidity vs TechnicalsBitcoin is at a hinge point. Technical View: Weekly volume profile looks bearish, but if BTC closes above 119,465.52 the setup flips into an explosive breakout. Macro View: The dollar is boxed (96.7–98.3) and fiscal stress + Fed cut bets are weighing on USD. Gold is at record highs on safe-haven demand. In this environment, macro liquidity can override technical ceilings. That’s why I’ve stepped back to scalping until the macro picture stabilizes. The market is running on liquidity hunts, not clean structure. 🔑 Levels to Watch BTC: Weekly close >119,465.52 → ignition higher DXY: Breakout from 96.7–98.3 range decides cross-asset direction When macros dominate, technicals bend. Patience and risk control matter more than chart perfection here.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by CORE5DAN
BTC USD PLAN Bitcoin’s chart is one thing, but the bigger story is what’s driving the money behind it. The Fed & Yields The Federal Reserve is still the invisible hand. Every surprise in rates—whether a hotter inflation print or a sudden hint of deeper cuts—moves global risk appetite. Lower real yields = cheaper capital = stronger bid for assets like BTC. A hawkish turn does the opposite. Institutional Flow Big money isn’t just buying dips—it’s writing new rules. Case in point: asset manager Strive is set to acquire about 5,800 BTC (≈ $675 million) through a corporate deal. Moves like this tighten available supply and add a slow, steady demand base. Bitcoin Technical View This week’s candle is shaping up bearish, and Monday will tell us if today’s Sunday session finishes the job. If the market doesn’t fill that daily gap, we’ll be watching Monday’s open closely. Right now the daily range runs from 113,999 down to 108,644. If the dollar pushes into higher liquidity zones, Bitcoin could feel the pressure and drift lower. The plan is simple: wait for a clear shift on the smaller time frames before making any move and calculate risk from there. Patience matters more than bravado—let the market come to you. For now, the setup still looks constructive, but it only pays to act when the levels confirm. Trade small, stay calm, and protect your capital first.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by CORE5DAN
US Dollar Flexes, Look For on 99.05Sunday War Map – A weekly candle this strong leaves a mark. The dollar printed a 96.77 low to 98.18 high—a full-bodied bullish bar that demands respect. Macro This week is stacked with U.S. data that can shake the pullback narrative: Tue 30 Sep – JOLTS & Consumer Confidence: first look at hiring demand and household mood. Wed 1 Oct – ISM Manufacturing PMI: factory pulse and price pressures. Thu 2 Oct – Durable Goods & Trade Data: capital-expenditure clues. Fri 3 Oct – Non-Farm Payrolls & Hourly Earnings: the heavyweight. A hot jobs print could delay the December Fed-cut story (futures still price ~70% odds). Technical Targets Expect an early-week pullback as traders digest that massive weekly bar. Two liquidity pools we’ve tracked for months were cleared last week; two upside targets still in play 98.2 and 98.3 remain before the chart reaches a true “bearish-range discount.” Keep eyes on the 99.05 volume node—a well-defined supply zone where cross-market reactions (EUR, gold, crypto) could spike. The dollar controls the tempo. Wait for the market to come to your levels; don’t chase the last candle.
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by CORE5DAN
I'm still long biased @ $XAUUSD (but deleveraging)Technical View A potential bullish cup & handle pattern is forming, often seen as a continuation signal. Price has already broken out of a bearish channel, which suggests that buyers have taken control. Triangle and wedge formations point to pressure building upward. The broader macro channel remains intact, so the larger trend has not been broken. Clear invalidation levels are visible near 3,730 and 3,612, which provides trade structure from a technical perspective. Overall, the technical picture continues to lean bullish. Macro View US CPI remains sticky while jobless claims are softening, hinting at stagflation dynamics. The Federal Reserve is under pressure to cut rates, with real interest rates already negative. Historically, when real rates are negative, gold tends to outperform bonds as a store of value. Global central banks remain net buyers of gold as they diversify away from Treasuries. This combination is similar to the 1970s stagflation backdrop: falling rates with inflation uncertainty often encouraged capital flows into gold. Opinion Technicals suggest upward momentum. Macro factors also support a bullish bias. The main caveat is that positioning in gold is already heavy, which can lead to sharp short-term volatility. Directionally, however, the long bias aligns with both the charts and the macro backdrop. Disclaimer This post reflects only my personal market observations and opinions, shared for educational and informational purposes. It should not be considered financial advice, investment recommendation, or a call to action. Trading financial markets involves risk, and you should carefully assess your own situation and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions. Past performance or historical patterns do not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional if needed.
TICKMILL:XAUUSDLong
by TheAlphaGroup
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Weekly 2025Summary: The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has corrected down to the key 38.60% Fibonacci retracement zone and is currently showing signs of a potential bullish reversal, bolstered by a clear hidden bullish divergence on the MACD. This may signal a renewed rally toward key upside targets, especially if the 93.3–99.9 support Zone holds. Chart Context: Current Price: 98.864 Key Fib Support: 38.60% @ 99.906, 48.60% @ 93.310, 61.80% @ 87.476 Support Zone: 93.3–99.9 USD Hidden Bullish Divergence: Observed both in 2021 and now again in 2025 on the MACD Trendline Support: Long-term ascending trendline holding since 2011 Fib Extension Targets (Trend-Based): TP1: 115.000 TP2: 120.000 TP3: 126.666 Key Technical Observations: Fibonacci Confluence: DXY is bouncing from a strong Fib cluster between 93.310 and 99.906, historically acting as a reversal zone. Hidden Bullish Divergence: Suggests potential upside despite price weakness. Downtrend Retest: Price may revisit 93.3–87.4 before confirming full reversal. Breakout Pathway: Green dashed arrows outline the likely recovery trajectory toward 114–126 range. Indicators: MACD: Showing hidden bullish divergence and potential signal crossover. Trendline Support: Holding intact from 2021 low. Fib Levels: Used for retracement and trend-based extension. Fundamental Context: Interest Rate Outlook: If U.S. inflation remains controlled and Fed signals future hikes or sustained high rates, DXY strength may persist. Global Liquidity & Recession Risk: If risk aversion returns, the dollar may rise as a safe haven. Geopolitical Risks: Conflicts, trade tensions, or BRICS dedollarization efforts may create volatility. Our Recent research suggests the Fed may maintain higher-for-longer rates due to resilient labor markets and sticky core inflation. This supports bullish USD bias unless macro shifts rapidly. Why DXY Could Continue Strengthening: Robust U.S. economic performance & monetary policy divergence U.S. GDP growth (~2.7% in 2024) outpaces developed peers (~1.7%), supporting stronger USD The Fed maintains restrictive rates (4.25–4.50%), while the ECB pivots to easing, widening the policy and yield gap . Inflation resilience and Fed hawkishness Labor markets remain tight, keeping inflation “sticky” and delaying expected rate cuts; market-implied cuts for 2025 have been pushed into 2026 Fed officials (e.g. Kugler) emphasize ongoing tariff-driven inflation, suggesting rates will stay elevated. Safe-haven and yield-seeking capital flows With global risks, capital favors USD-denominated assets for yield and stability Why the Dollar Might Face Headwinds Fiscal expansion & trade uncertainty Ballooning U.S. deficits (~$3.3 trn new debt) and erratic tariff policy undermine confidence in USD Wall Street’s consensus bearish position. Major banks largely expect a weaker dollar through 2025–26. However, this crowded bearish sentiment poses a risk of a sharp rebound if data surprises occur barons Tariff policy risks Trump's new tariffs could dampen dollar demand—yet if perceived as fiscal stimulus, they could unexpectedly buoy the USD . Synthesis for Our Biases A bullish DXY thesis is well-supported by: Economic and policy divergence (U.S. growth + Fed vs. peers). Hawkish Fed commentary and sticky inflation. Safe-haven capital inflows. Conversely, risks include: Deteriorating fiscal/trade dynamics. Potential Fed pivot once inflation shows clear decline. A consensus that could trigger a short squeeze or reversal if overstretched. Philosophical / Narrative View: The dollar remains the world’s dominant reserve currency. Periodic dips often act as strategic re-accumulation phases for institutional capital—especially during global macro uncertainty. A return toward 120+ reflects this persistent demand for USD liquidity and safety. Bias & Strategy Implication: 1. Primary Bias: Bullish, contingent on support at 93.3–99.9 holding. 2. Risk Scenario: Breakdown below 93.3 invalidates bullish thesis and targets 87.4–80 zones. Impact on Crypto & Gold and its Correlation and Scenarios: Historically, DXY has had an inverse correlation to both gold and crypto markets. When DXY strengthens, liquidity tends to rotate into dollar-denominated assets and away from risk-on trades like crypto and gold. When DXY weakens, it typically acts as a tailwind for both Bitcoin and gold. Correlation Coefficients: DXY vs. Gold: ≈ -0.85 (strong inverse correlation) DXY vs. TOTAL (crypto market cap): ≈ -0.72 (moderate to strong inverse correlation) Scenario 1: DXY Rallies toward 115–126 then, Expect gold to correct or stagnate, especially if yields rise. Crypto likely to pull back or remain suppressed unless specific bullish catalysts emerge (e.g., ETF flows or tech adoption). Scenario 2: DXY ranges between 93–105 then Gold may consolidate or form bullish continuation patterns. Then Crypto may see selective strength, particularly altcoins, if BTC.D declines. Scenario 3: DXY falls below 93 and toward 87 Then Gold likely to rally, possibly challenging all-time highs. Crypto could enter a major bull run, led by Bitcoin and followed by altcoins, fueled by increased liquidity and lower opportunity cost of holding non-USD assets. Understanding DXY’s direction provides valuable insight for portfolio positioning in macro-sensitive assets. Notes & Disclaimers: This analysis reflects a technical interpretation of the DXY index and is not financial advice. Market conditions may change based on unexpected macroeconomic events, Fed policy, or geopolitical developments.
TVC:DXYLong
by BitonGroup
Economic Tipping Point...GFC 2.0? In this video we discuss; Bond Market Signal using the 2 year yield. Is the 2 year yield giving us a 2007 / 2008 signal? We look at the correlation of the 2 year yield vs SPX We analyze the forward expectation of interest rate projections. Observe and dissect last weeks economic employment data. There will be plenty of opportunities in this next phase of the market cycle. I will be looking very forward to the plethora of trade alerts I will be issuing.
TVC:US02YLong
by Trading-Capital
U.S. Macroeconomic DashboardThis is more of a cheatsheet/how-to for my own reference on my macro indicators charting layout. If the chart layout is helpful to the community, all the better! I find it useful for studying events and crises. Indicators used: SPX, VIX, FEDFUNDS + US10Y + T10Y2Y, USIRYY + USCIR, UNRATE, USBCOI, BAMLH0A0HYM2, DXY Row 1: Equity and volatility benchmarks Row 2: Policy stance and inflation Row 3: Unemployment and growth metrics Row 4: Credit spreads and USD strength SPX Measuring : Equity benchmark Relevance : Broadest market barometer Observe : Trend direction, key levels, divergence vs other indicators VIX Measuring : Volatility index Relevance : Market's implied volatility (read: "fear/greed gauge") Observe : Spike --> risk-off, hedging demand; sustained lows --> complacency FEDFUNDS + US10Y + T10Y2Y Measuring : U.S. policy stance and yield curve Relevance : Monetary tightening and loosening; yield curve recession slope Observe : T10Y2Y curve inversion --> recession risk; bear steepening --> watch for inflation/deficit concerns; bull steepening --> Fed easing, recovery signal USIRYY + USCIR Measuring : Inflation Relevance : Headline: all prices; Core: Excluding food + energy Observe : Headline stat drives short-term moves. Core stat drives Fed policy UNRATE Measuring : Unemployment rate Relevance : Labor market health (this is a lagging indicator) Observe : Rising trend --> recession risk; very low --> possible overheating USBCOI Measuring : Manufacturing PMI; Business activity Relevance : Leading growth indicator for manufacturing, services Observe : >50 means expansion, <50 means contraction BAMLH0A0HYM2 Measuring : U.S. High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread (the extra yield/spread investors demand to hold junk bonds vs risk-free Treasuries) Relevance : Stress in corporate bond markets; risk sentiment Observe : Widening --> investors demand more compensation for credit risk; narrowing --> investors are confident, low fear of defaults. 2-4 is normal, 4-6 is stressed, 6+ is distress, 10+ is crisis level DXY Measuring : USD strength Relevance : Global liquidity, capital flows, financial conditions Observe : Strong USD = tighter conditions and pressure on risk assets; inverse for weak USD
TVC:SPXEducation
by klizarazo
$200 soon - SOL weekly update August 12 - 18thFrom an Elliott Wave perspective, the scenario for Solana has been slightly adjusted from previous counts. Current price action suggests that SOL is already in an impulsive upward move, which aligns well with the broader correlation observed across the altcoin market. As with many other altcoins, the structure shows a completed 1–2 sequence at the Primary degree and another 1–2 sequence at the Intermediate degree. At the Minor degree, price is in the final stages of Wave 1, specifically in Minute Wave 5. An alternative scenario — less likely but still possible — is that the move is actually a corrective structure, with the Minor degree currently forming Wave C. This would become more probable if price extends significantly beyond the 1.618 Fibonacci extension, as such behaviour would be atypical for a standard fifth wave. From a liquidity standpoint, short- to medium-term bias points upward. The liquidity heatmap shows a large concentration of liquidity at the local high of Wave 3, as well as significant order clusters near the 1.0 extension target for the current Wave 5. However, substantial liquidity is also accumulating below current price, which will likely be targeted during the subsequent Wave 2 retracement. Funding rates have shifted from slightly negative toward positive territory, and open interest is climbing — both signs of a stable and sustained upward move. Macro conditions also support the current market tone. The latest CPI data came in at 2.7%, better than expected, boosting sentiment. As the FOMC meeting approaches, retail traders are increasingly positioning for a potential “altseason” — a dynamic that raises the probability of a sell-the-news event if expectations are overextended. Given the current wave structure, liquidity positioning, and macro backdrop, the 1.0 Fibonacci extension level has been set as the primary target for the completion of this Minor Wave 5. This area aligns with heavy order clustering and fits the typical profile for a fifth wave termination before a corrective phase. Do your own research — and trade safe.
BINANCE:SOLUSDLong
by Phillipklh
U.S. Slaps 39% Tariff on Swiss Gold BarsU.S. Slaps 39% Tariff on Swiss Gold Bars, Shaking the Global Bullion Market By Hirad Aryanejad – Macroeconomic & Gold Markets Analyst --- The United States has moved to impose a 39% tariff on imports of one-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars from Switzerland — a shock decision that could ripple across the global bullion market. In a letter dated July 31, 2025, the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) reclassified these widely traded bullion products — critical to the Comex futures market — as “semi-manufactured”, making them subject to duties. Previously, they were classified as “unwrought, nonmonetary gold” , exempting them from earlier tariff rounds. --- A Blow to the World’s Largest Refining Hub The decision follows former President Donald Trump’s broader tariff package on all Swiss goods, announced after rejecting Switzerland’s proposal for a 10% tariff in exchange for \$150 billion in U.S.-bound investment. Switzerland — the world’s largest gold refining hub — exported roughly $61.5 billion in gold to the U.S. over the 12 months ending June 2025. The new tariff could add nearly $24 billion in duties. Christoph Wild, President of the Swiss Association of Manufacturers and Traders of Precious Metals, called the ruling “another blow” to Swiss-U.S. gold trade, warning that exports may become “economically unviable”. --- Market Reaction: Record Gold Prices The ruling triggered an immediate market shock. Gold futures in New York surged past $3,500 per troy ounce, hitting a record $3,534 on August 8, before pulling back slightly. Analysts say the rally was driven by both the tariff announcement and gold’s safe-haven appeal amid escalating trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty. Some traders described the CBP’s decision as “shocking” and possibly mistaken, predicting legal challenges ahead. The lack of clarity has already caused certain shipments to freeze in transit. --- The Critical Role of Switzerland in Bullion Logistics Global bullion trade depends on a triangular supply chain: Raw gold refined in Switzerland Cast into kilo bars for the U.S. market or 400-ounce bars for London Delivered to satisfy Comex contracts and central bank reserves This logistical network is now under threat. UBS strategist Joni Teves has questioned whether U.S. gold futures trading can remain viable if tariffs on deliverable products persist. The Swiss Precious Metals Association noted that the CBP’s clarification applies to all 1kg and 100oz gold bars imported into the U.S. not only those from Switzerland — raising the stakes for global trade flows. --- Negotiations and Uncertainty Ahead Switzerland continues to negotiate with Washington to reduce the tariff burden, but uncertainty remains. The White House is reportedly preparing a clarification on the bullion tariffs that could determine whether the market stabilizes or faces prolonged disruption. Until then, gold industry players — from major banks to refining houses — are bracing for further volatility, both in pricing and physical supply chains. --- Keywords: gold market news, Swiss gold bars, U.S. gold tariffs, Comex gold futures, bullion trade, Switzerland gold exports, precious metals refining, gold price surge, macroeconomic analysis.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDShort
by hiradaryanejad
2
Mirroring alts - FET weekly update August 10 - 16thFetch.ai (FET) is advancing within a multi-degree Elliott Wave alignment that mirrors the structures seen across many other altcoins. At the Cycle degree, price is in Wave 1; at the Primary degree, a completed 1–2 structure suggests that Wave 3 is now underway; at the Intermediate degree, the same 1–2 formation implies another Wave 3; at the Minor degree, price is currently in Wave 1; and at the Minute degree, price is in the late stages of Wave 3, which is likely to end inside the highlighted Fair Value Gap (FVG). Once this smaller Wave 3 completes, a short-lived Wave 4 pullback is expected, followed by Wave 5 to finish Minor Wave 1. A deeper retracement into the 0.5–0.764 Fibonacci zone would then be possible as part of Minor Wave 2 before the next sustained advance. The structure remains bullish as long as key support levels hold. From a sentiment and liquidity standpoint, funding rates are positive, indicating a bias toward long positions. The liquidity heatmap shows only limited liquidity above current price, while there is more liquidity resting below — a configuration that could allow for a quick liquidity sweep before continuation. This chart pattern is notably similar to many other altcoin structures right now, reflecting the high degree of correlation within the crypto market. If Bitcoin confirms its own bullish wave count, these aligned setups could trigger synchronized breakouts. Conversely, a BTC rejection could weigh on all correlated altcoins, including FET. In the broader macroeconomic context, the CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 88,9% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the September FOMC meeting. Markets often front-run such decisions, and this could act as a catalyst for impulsive Wave 3 rallies across crypto. However, heavily skewed bullish sentiment increases the risk of a “sell-the-news” event if traders over-leverage ahead of the announcement. Institutional accumulation likely occurred earlier in the cycle, leaving retail traders to drive the next legs higher. As long as structural support remains intact and the anticipated Wave 4–5 sequence plays out, FET appears well-positioned for continuation — in alignment with the bullish setups currently visible across much of the altcoin market.
BINANCE:FETUSDLong
by Phillipklh
Undecided. - SAND/SAN weekly update August 9 - 15thThe Sandbox (SAND) is currently advancing within a strongly aligned Elliott Wave structure. At the Cycle degree, price is in Wave 3; at both the Primary and Intermediate degrees, it is also in Wave 3; and at the Minute degree, the market is completing a smaller Wave 3. From a Smart Money Concepts perspective, it would make sense for price to dip into the lower highlighted Fair Value Gap (FVG) before continuing higher, as this aligns with key Fibonacci retracement levels. Even a quick wick into this zone would be sufficient to rebalance price before continuation. Following this potential retracement, the structure anticipates a short Wave 4 followed by Wave 5, which is projected to terminate in the upper FVG marked on the chart. This interpretation fits well with the overall bullish macro structure. However, if Wave 4 were to drop below the top of Wave 1, the current count would be invalidated. A move below the start of Wave 1 would raise the probability that the current advance is part of a more complex corrective structure rather than a sustained impulse. From a derivatives perspective, funding rates remain positive while open interest is stagnating, indicating steady but not accelerating long participation. The liquidity heatmap shows significant liquidity resting below the Wave 2 low, which could act as a magnet for a short-term sweep before continuation. On a broader level, this setup aligns with the macroeconomic backdrop. The CME FedWatch Tool currently shows a 88.9% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the September FOMC meeting. Such expectations often lead to markets front-running the event, potentially fuelling impulsive Wave 3 rallies across the crypto sector. However, if bullish positioning becomes excessive, the risk of a “sell-the-news” reaction or a liquidation event increases — particularly in assets like SAND, which are already in extended third waves. Institutional positioning likely occurred earlier in the cycle, leaving retail traders to provide the momentum for the next legs up. As long as key support levels hold and the lower FVG provides the anticipated reaction, SAND remains well-positioned for a continued advance toward the 0.320–0.340 range, with multiple wave degrees supporting the bullish case.
VANTAGE:SANUSDLong
by Phillipklh
Third-Tier action - MANA weekly update August 9 - 15thDecentraland (MANA) is currently advancing within a strongly aligned Elliott Wave structure. At the Cycle degree, the market is in Wave 1; at the Primary degree, it is in Wave 3; at the Intermediate degree, also in Wave 3; and at the Minor degree, in Wave 1. At the Minute degree, price is in the late stages of Wave 3. This smaller Wave 3 is approaching a bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG), which could act as resistance and mark the short-term top of this wave. Interestingly, the projected target for Wave 5 also aligns with a higher-level bearish FVG, adding structural confluence to the broader setup. While the overarching wave alignment remains bullish, there are a few elements to monitor closely. Funding rates are positive but leaning slightly toward the negative, suggesting a mild sentiment shift, while open interest continues to rise, indicating stronger market participation. However, the liquidity heatmap reveals a significant concentration of liquidity below the current price, which weighs against the immediate bullish continuation, as such liquidity often attracts short-term sweeps before the trend resumes. Market psychology could also play a major role in the next move. With Ethereum currently rallying strongly, there is a plausible rotation scenario: once ETH reaches a key resistance level and slows down, capital may rotate into second- and third-tier altcoins like MANA, accelerating their upside moves. Such rotations often coincide with euphoric retail behaviour, which can amplify both gains and volatility. From a macroeconomic perspective, this setup is further supported by expectations surrounding the upcoming September FOMC meeting. The CME FedWatch Tool currently shows a 88.9% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut. Markets tend to front-run such events, and this expectation could fuel bullish momentum into Wave 3 moves across the crypto sector. However, with sentiment leaning heavily bullish, there is also the risk of a “sell-the-news” reaction, especially if leveraged longs pile in too aggressively ahead of the announcement. Institutional positioning appears to have taken place earlier in the cycle, as evidenced by order block formations near the end of prior corrective waves, leaving retail traders to drive the next leg higher. This dynamic often defines the acceleration phase of a third wave. As long as key support levels hold and the structure remains intact, MANA’s multi-timeframe alignment suggests that the next impulsive rally could be substantial — though traders should remain mindful of the liquidity resting below, which could trigger a temporary shakeout before continuation.
COINBASE:MANAUSDLong
by Phillipklh
3
Chasing new highs - GRT weekly update August 8 - 14thThe Graph (GRT) has formed two higher-degree 1–2 setups — one at the Cycle degree and one at the Primary degree — creating a structurally bullish foundation. At the Intermediate degree, price is currently advancing in Wave 1, while at the Minor degree, it is in Wave 3, the most dynamic phase of an impulse. This alignment of early waves across degrees suggests a potentially strong continuation if key resistance levels are broken. The immediate bullish confirmation comes from a break above the $0.097 resistance, which would open the door for a sustained rally toward the $0.106–$0.122 zone, based on Fibonacci extensions. However, there is an alternative scenario: if the market fails to clear $0.097 and sells off, breaking the $0.0873 support, it would indicate that Intermediate Wave C and therefore Primary Wave 2 are not yet complete. In that case, a final low to complete the larger correction would be expected before the uptrend resumes. From a sentiment perspective, funding rates are positive, and open interest is rising, showing increasing long exposure. The liquidity heatmap reveals significant liquidity resting below current price, with only minor clusters above — a configuration that could invite a short-term liquidity sweep before continuation. This setup also needs to be viewed in the context of broader macroeconomic conditions. For much of this year, capital inflows into crypto were limited by the Federal Reserve’s restrictive monetary policy. However, the CME FedWatch Tool now shows a 89.1% probability of a rate cut at the September FOMC meeting. Markets tend to front-run such events, and this expectation could fuel Wave 3 advances across the crypto sector. But with anticipation running high, there is also the risk of a sell-the-news reaction, particularly if retail traders over-leverage into the move. It’s worth noting that this structure in GRT closely mirrors many other altcoin charts at the moment — a sign of high correlation within the crypto market. As long as the $0.097 resistance is broken and the $0.0873 level remains intact, the probability favours the bullish scenario — with a multi-degree Wave 3 advance potentially underway, fueled by both technical structure and macro catalysts.
COINBASE:GRTUSDLong
by Phillipklh