Macroeconomics

It is common knowledge that interest rates play a major role in any economy, so I recently decided to sit down and see how the 10 year U.S. bond yield has acted during recessions in the past to see if it correlates somehow with today's markets. After all, the biggest component of any recession is monetary policy which would imply interest rates and therefore bond...

Heading into next week very bearish against the dollar. While the rally of last week was enjoyable if you were long on the dollar it seems the macroeconomic environment has changed and the tides may turn. On the fundamental side of things you have Trump threatening more tariffs against China, kicking off the trade war again and shocking the markets into...

Despite the extremely weak statistics from the Eurozone published on Monday and rather depressing data on producer prices, published on Tuesday, the euro tone was relatively good in the foreign exchange market yesterday. The reason was the information that the ECB is not ready to resort to additional monetary incentives. Therefore you should not expect to ease...

There are several factors supporting this hypothesis, including wave theory, technical analysis, fundamental analysis, and macroeconomic factors. Wave Theory: Based on the Two Day chart above, it looks like we're in a diametric and should be nearing the end of wave-(D) because it is time similar to the other waves, and the internals of that wave seem to have...

Based on the higher time frames, the price has been declining rapidly to the downside, the trendline was broken and tested our key daily area of support 1.81500 which was created by the previous swing to the low before retesting the key institutional area of supply1.88000. I will be monitoring candlestick behaviour around this key region to see if we can get more...

Puede que el crash ya haya empezado! / Maybe the crash has already started! Los últimos serán los primeros... / The last will be the first ... Si corrige puede que lleguemos al nivel de los 2570 puntos. / If there is a correction, we may reach the 2570 points level. Debería ser así por la clara divergencia entre el precio y el indicador RSI. / It should be...

The stalemate of the trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing weighs on the main trend of the US. There was the increase of 200 billion dollars in US goods on Chinese goods, since last Friday. In fact, before Trump's words that reversed the direction of the price, the DOW JONES, NASDAQ and SP500 trends were all projected to rise in the short term. The...

DXY ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The US Dollar has been respecting daily trendline support for almost 12 months. One would imagine that weakness in the dollar is imminent. I would say yes but not that fast as people would think. Using supply and demand analysis, price has...

Looking at the SP:SPX 1-month chart, I’m seeing some strong indications pointing at SPX being at the top of a potentially violent crash. Evidence For – Indicators that Support SPX Being at the Beginning of Crash: MACD Support Trendline: Broken with Some Distance – In the previous two crashes, the beginning of the crashes coincided with the MACD support...

The trend is bearish in the short and medium term, while in the very short it remains lateral. With the last conference of the ECB governor, the investors have been surprised by a sudden change of vision by Draghi, who said that as early as the first quarter of 2019 could start to issue money at 0 interest rate in favor of the banking system since the European...

As I dig deeper, the Bitcoin picture becomes clearer. I'm starting to believe that Bitcoin is the penny stock of the world's finance. I'm comparing Bitcoin to a fund that manages a basket of EM-related assets. This is the reported breakdown as of October: China 19.95% Other 16.59% South Korea 14.78% Taiwan 11.39% Russia 8.23% Brazil 8.01% South...

Seems as if a lower high will be established on the lower timeframes as price comes back to test the previous low that's sitting on a strong support zone. A decent R:R entry could come at the completion of the the bullish bat pattern (it's based on the 1HR so exercise caution). Big data ahead this week with consumer confidence and personal spending numbers; GDP...

"In general, we find that monetary policy should react to asset prices and should try to “prick” or “burst” asset bubbles." (Roubini 2005) Though it is clear they have not done so, anyone can see that there is an asset bubble in the stock, bond, and housing markets yet the FED continues their Zero Interest Rate Policy, and continues to print money at unprecedented...

There are occasions where central banks policies diverge, either by one being hawkish the other being dovish, or by one being less accommodative while the other leans to provide further easing, in general these diverging moments are cyclical habits of markets, they come in various and actually unlimited ways and tastes, where the divergence of central banks...