Speculation for Macro:
I argue that price and consumer price inflation do not influence equities as much as the dollar. Investors who are betting on stocks because of 'inflation' will be in for a shock. Yields indicate we may be entering stagflation. Economic slowdown and rising dollar will prove a stronger force than consumer price inflation. After all the...
The Baltic Dry Index Continues to soar following my call for a breakout at 3,200ish (July 2021). I think the BDI remains a good indicator right now for a few reasons:
1. From a technical perspective, it is behaving exactly as expected (hence the call from 3,200 - it was an easy read)
2. The breakout and move higher is consistent with a bottleneck in global...
The US Dollar index is not a play thing. Some will be aware that I've been tracking this index for a long time.
Loads of folk have predicted that the Dollar Index will simply die. The evidence is showing that it ain't going down without a fight.
It's a massive index of macro-economic importance. You've got to be one of the big boys with loads of time to wait....
Tradingview has some amazing data on COVID. This chart is of importance for long term investment purposes (see fat disclaimer below).
Importantly this is about total of all cases infections and deaths. Some may say that's meaningless. But there are important features on the chart.
Say what you see! I'll say what I see.
If the war on COVID was being won, one...
It is no secret that in the Basel III era, the core profitability of European banks has not been satisfactory. While European banks' return on equity is not even close to the pre-07 levels and falls short on their cost of capital, US banks enjoy double-digit ROE and significantly higher valuations. This mismatch made me wonder whether the current macroeconomic...
The 2 major Expansion Cycles of the 20th Century, both expanded exactly +2509%. & both over exactly 18 Years from ATH Breakout!!
In this analysis, I compare the size and duration of the 2 major economic expansions cycles of the 20th Century, identifying the key components of each individual cycle to draw Observations, Parallels and Predictions with the 3rd major...
In the chart below you have the TIP and IEF the IEF ratio. IEF is Ishares 7-10 year treasury bond ETF and TIP is the TIPs bond etf. On the right side of the chart you have the 10 year inflation breakeven. Now looking at the two you can see that they track pretty closely. Now generally the IEF 7-10 year has a very similar duration to that of the TIP etf.
Some...
Fed tightening 10 year surged to almost 3.2% when Powell tried to tighten this can be seen on the chart below. Now following that measure to tighten you see the S&P fall 20% this miscalculation of the FED to increase rates. Powell was out to pop the equity bubble, but again this miscalculation caused them to stop tightening, and on the chart below you can see this...
Some never look higher. I always look higher.
I've fond that in general the higher time frames behave differently than those below 15 min, in terms of volatility.
The 3D and above time frames (like the weekly) are macroeconomic time frames. They tend to be slow and not as choppy as say 15 min time frame.
When stuff happens on large time frames, expect...
When economy faces drag lending and borrowing of USD tightens. Investors expect higher yield for taking more risk causing the spread to widen, and liquidity to increase this also shows expectations of future default risk. High yield spreads- option adjusted have bottomed and are now starting to slowly trend upwards. This is showing the market is not really worried...
There is a classic saying that credit markets tend to lead equity markets.
The rationale is that credit investors are solely more concerned about downside risk (as they worry whether coupons will be paid and whether they will get their principal back at maturity) and measure risks and determine spreads - over the risk free/benchmark rate - by factoring in the...
In a world where everything seems expensive the BB bond still seems Attractive in comparison to BBB rates corporate debt. The BB continues to offer a nice spread 143 BP spread over its BBB relative.
Now with that in mind one must remember recently for the first time ever HY (high yield) corporate debt now yields below the rate of inflation, however with the FED...
Speculation for Macro:
- 2018: Trump began trade war with China, and the market had the worst year in a decade (at the time).
- 2020: US-China Phase 1 deal is signed, market crashes shortly after.
- 2021: Market immediately rebounds and has the greatest bull market in history.
IMO it was a run-up then sell the news by insiders, then BTD for the bull run to...
Speculation for Macro:
These are the underlying conditions:
- Inflation expectations are what leads risk appetite. After all, who would hold or buy an asset expected to depreciate in value?
- Global inflation expectations turning down and have been in a downtrend for decades. Of course it is deflationary. If DEBT fueled GDP growth (for appearances over...
TVC:SPX using a log chart I channeled the market since it's inception. The top of the channel (in red) is exclusively where the major stock market crashes have happened. The bottom channel (in green) is "crash free." The bold purple line is where 3 of last 4 market crashes have happened. Since the "Nixon Shock," $spx has failed to breach this line, except during...
Hello Everyone, If You Like The Idea, Do Not Forget To Support With A Like And Comment .
Save Idea To Check In Futures Also .
We Will Add Fundamental Ideas Also But For Now Focus On Technical Analyze .
Let's Start With 4W Chart :
Sometimes Basic Things Can Play Big Role On Your Prediction So Please Focus On HH/HL Of Chart . This Stage Can't Go Higher Than...
