Why market is entering into short-term bullishness again and latter uncertainty or range?
We will do both technical and fundamental analysis in this video tutorial, and we will see how both analyses can affirm each other.
. Why market is entering into a short-term bullishness? (Fundamental & Technical studies)
. Subsequently the market will enter into...
An unpopular opinion I have is that inflation has already peaked. Just as the Fed took too long to raise interest rates. They now appear to be raising the Federal Funds rates too high in their attempts to mitigate runaway inflation.
For being such an unpopular opinion - it is oddly evident almost anywhere you care to look:
Freight Rates have dropped 8.2% y/y...
After the last three CPI reports that reported better than forecasts, DXY start a corrective move so bad…but we thinks it’s over in view of the macroeconomic aspect as well as technical. Financial markets thinks we will have pivot on monetary policies of Central banks…it’s make not sense by any mean…here on technical we have an nice spike base at 105.500, and...
Don't be fooled. 3.9% UR in the context of a smaller labor force That peaked in 2000.
This chart shows all All Employees, Total Nonfarm divided by population size.
As you can see all employees to population kept skyrocketing from 1957 to 2000 with
deficits next to nothing. SInce 2000, all employees have flatlined at best while
deficits keep increasing...
Macroeconomic factors will not do Bitcoin any favours in the short term. I believe the recent spike was a consequence of short position liquidations (~600mln) and not new adoption or demand. Therefore another leg down is more likely than anything else.
While had a bad year in the markets some sectors are giving signs of recovery.
One of them is the Space Industry which has seen explosive growth.
We also see some space stocks lagging behind the sector. Good buy while waiting for momentum pick up.
Crypto Market has also been in the lead but does not offer many undervalued projects and is still in a range.
TA: Elliott impulse wave (12345) - Elliott correction waves (ABC) - Falling Wedge Pattern - RSI in weakly time frame is still bearish . I can't see any bullish market structure
Macroeconomics: EUR problems bcz of Russia inflation - covid-19
With inflationary expectations low, a decrease in CPI and Core CPI, a likely slowing in interest rate hikes, there's too much positive news in the short term to ignore the likelihood of a near-term rally. Still, some hinges on Jerome Powell's outlook tomorrow, but I expect him to keep language as soft as his last speech. Last month, he was still very domineering...
I have heard both sides: 1) Historically, the Fed pivot will result in a decline in equities because they are pivoting in response to negative economic data which drags on equities, and 2) this time is different, negative economic data is positive for equites because it means inflation is on its way down.
When people reference the former, for whatever reason,...
My Economic Outlook for 10-15 years ahead
The rare double-dip recession
October CPI report shows Inflation slightly decreased to 7.7% and The Fed already made a statement to decrease The Fedfunds Rate. Potential Fed pivot approximately will occur in Q1 or Q2 of 2023. That will be the time of disinflationary period or maybe we are already in by now. What to be...
As tensions continue to escalate between the West and Russia, a new development has emerged in the ongoing struggle over oil shipments. The West has been using shipping insurance as a tool to put pressure on Russia, but this strategy has had limited success so far. Insurance is only available for shipments valued at less than $60 a barrel, and as it happens,...
2016-2017 NFP Average = 168k (Trump Era)
2017-2018 NFP Average = 198k
2018-2019 NFP Average = 164k
2019-2020 NFP Average = -796k (COVID-19)
2020-2021 NFP Average = 474k (Biden Era)
2021-2022 NFP Average = 410k
There was a time when 261k would have been outstanding, but following on from the big job reset in 2019/2020 the average was above 400k.
The breakout needs to be tested. $20102.02 is the support under test today. The center remains the axis of oscillation.
Only by taking hold of the center for 24 hours could the price reach a height of $23780.49.
When intraday support is not broken, it’ll hold up on the center several times. Otherwise, it’ll break down to $19600.41.
The market expected...
In June’s masterclass I suggested the bottom of the crypto market wasn’t yet in. Since then a 40% mid bear cycle pump was profited from. Now we have a situation where volatility on the BBWP is at one of its most contracted states ever seen. Which heavily suggests a huge macro move pending.
The world’s markets have been propped up for months... from Evergrand in...