MACRO MONDAY 21
NAHB Housing Market Index
The NAHB Housing Market Index (HMI) is compiled from a monthly survey issued by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) to U.S. builders in order to measure the current and forward looking sentiment for single-family homes being built or with the prospect of being built in the U.S.
In the survey builders rate...
70% of GDP is consumption, with that in mind, seeing such a bad number with a downward trend is very concerning for the future of the economy, revenues, profits, EPS.
Remember that core inflation is still very high at 3.9%. At this pace, we could end up in a stagflationary environment.
While many look at Nominal GDP. They are missing the importance of REAL GDP ...
Is the FED's caution on inflation justified? Absolutely! Here is why, secondary inflation spikes are very common when an economy does not enter a recession. The FED knows that. Hence their apprehension moving too fast to lower rates.
I think it is a mistake for people to believe inflation is over, running around with a major hard-on to lower rates. On the other...
Business loans relative to money supply spikes during periods of recessions.
As you can see the law of diminishing returns is creating lower highs,
As per this chart there is no indication we are in a recession. Why?
I would argue because we are still in a recession since 2020.
You can't fix an insolvency problem with liquidity.
The inflation rate in the Euro Area declined to 2.9% year-on-year in October 2023,
reaching its lowest level since July 2021 and falling slightly below the market consensus of 3.1% .
The Core Rate, which filters out volatile food and energy prices,
also cooled to 4.2% in October;
marking its lowest point since July 2022.
NOT! In the Labor Force remains at very high levels. 99.5 million people. To hit prependemic levels 5 million would have to start looking for a job. If that were to happen then the unemployment rate would skyrocket. Since the unemployment rate only counts those who are looking for jobs.
The question is if and when we hit a recession how high will we go?
It has been 1 year almost to the day since my last publication and what a 12 months it has been. I previously laid out the case for a pending future recession but not before we saw massive regular bullish divergence play out on the monthly time frame for Bitcoin.
Since then we've seen a 187% move in BTC, a 25% move in the S&P 500 and every commentator, pundit...
Following last week's release of stronger-than-expected economic data, investors are recalibrating their expectations concerning aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts. The market sentiment is shifting, with investors scaling back their anticipation of imminent rate cuts. This change in perception is amplified by the surge in bond yields, indicating a rising...
Macro Monday 28 – Discretionary Vs Staples
Today we are going to look at the following two very interesting SPDR Indexes and their relationship to one another to help us understand where the U.S. consumer is at present.
SPDR Select Sector Funds (“SPDE SSF”)
1. Consumer Discretionary SPDR Fund AMEX:XLY
2. Consumer Staples SPDR Fund AMEX:XLP
Global Central Bank Balance Sheet denominated in USD has broken the uptrend line down almost 16% or $5 trillion which is about 5% of Global GDP.
Why does that matter to you? Because there are $5 trillion more bonds available that have been invested in the bond market which takes away from other asset classes.
While global debt has skyrocketed (meaning more ...
A lot of folks are scratching their heads, wondering why Bitcoin isn't taking off like a rocket 🚀. Some even reckon it needs to take a nosedive before we see any action. But what's the deal with Bitcoin? Why does it seem like we're just going sideways? Let me break down a few things that, in my humble opinion, are affecting Bitcoin's price and what I think might...
Hello traders, lets take a look at copper which testing an important resistance area and see what can possibly happen and what are the consequences of possible bearish move in other markets like us equities.
first lets talk technical, price overall bearish Daily move in copper formed a standard #head_and_shoulder pattern in form of consolidation in downtrend move...
Not many if any definitory positions.
This week in the market is very important in determining the direction of the mid-term.
Current state of the market is ranging and thus trend following systems cannot be used.
SDCA in place for the long-term.
The most important factor for the economy is the behaviour of GDP. Several economic indicators are tracked to determine the overall economic situation and GDP growth.
A technical recession is defined as 2 consecutive quarters of negative real GDP.
If GDP grows less than 3% on average for the year, the economy is not growing fast enough and this will lead to...
The global economy is facing a number of challenges, including rising inflation, slowing growth, and geopolitical tensions. These challenges have led some economists to warn of a potential stagflation environment, characterized by high inflation and low economic growth. Overall, the dollar had a few battles with other intermarket factors that tried to halt its...
My dear friends,
Thursday, 14 September, 2023 and ECB interest rate decision is on the way. We'll wait for confirmations.
But before ECB meeting, series of several bad economical news over China's financial stability were published. Market reacted to them rationally. Suddenly the red dragon start to regain it's reputation. Good news for China means stronger...
Though I long term bullish on Bitcoin, my opinion remains unchanged from my former analysis in 2022. In which I believe the crypto market remains in a prolonged correctional wave.
Since the initial analysis, interest rates have risen dramatically, mid/low cap equities have continued to bleed, and I myself believe crypto has yet to enter the next bull cycle....