Get started

Market

$SPY and $SPX Scenarios — Week of Nov 24 to Nov 28, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY and SP:SPX Scenarios — Week of Nov 24 to Nov 28, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 📉 Shutdown backlog week: Most major September reports finally drop on Tuesday and Wednesday — Retail Sales, PPI, Durable Goods — all of which normally move markets but are arriving late due to the October shutdown. 🏠 Housing and consumer read-through: Case Shiller, Consumer Confidence, and Pending Home Sales give traders a real-time read on the health of housing and spending as the holiday season begins. 📉 Liquidity thinning: Thanksgiving week historically brings lighter volume and sharper moves when data surprises. 📊 Key Data and Events (ET) Below are only the trader-relevant items, with delayed reports clearly marked. TUESDAY, NOV 25 — The Big Data Dump ⏰ 8:30 AM — Retail Sales (Delayed Sept) Actual: 0.3 percent (vs 0.6 forecast) ⏰ 8:30 AM — Retail Sales ex-Autos (Delayed Sept) Actual: 0.3 percent (vs 0.7 forecast) ⏰ 8:30 AM — Producer Price Index PPI (Delayed Sept) Actual: 0.3 percent Year over year: 2.6 percent ⏰ 8:30 AM — Core PPI (Delayed Sept) Prior: 0.3 percent Current: Not available due to shutdown ⏰ 8:30 AM — Core PPI Year over Year Actual: 2.8 percent ⏰ 9:00 AM — Case Shiller Home Price Index, 20-City (Sept) Actual: Not available Forecast: 1.6 percent ⏰ 10:00 AM — Business Inventories (Delayed Aug) Actual: 0.1 percent ⏰ 10:00 AM — Consumer Confidence (Nov) Actual: 93.4 (vs 94.6 forecast) ⏰ 10:00 AM — Pending Home Sales (Oct) Actual: 0.0 percent WEDNESDAY, NOV 26 ⏰ 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 22) Actual: 225,000 (vs 220,000 forecast) ⏰ 8:30 AM — Durable Goods Orders (Delayed Sept) Actual: 0.3 percent (vs 2.9 percent prior) ⏰ 8:30 AM — Durable Goods ex-Transportation (Delayed Sept) Actual: 0.4 percent THURSDAY, NOV 27 🦃 Thanksgiving — No economic releases FRIDAY, NOV 28 ⏰ 9:45 AM — Chicago PMI (Nov) Forecast: 43.8 ⚠️ Note: Many September reports are still delayed due to the federal government shutdown from Oct 1 to Nov 12. All delayed items are explicitly labeled above. ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational and informational only. Not financial advice. 📌 #SPY #SPX #macro #trading #stocks #inflation #consumer #PPI #retailsales #housing #markets
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
EURUSD Weakens at Resistance — Pullback Toward 1.1480 ExpectedHello traders! Let’s break down the current EURUSD structure. EURUSD continues to trade inside a broad descending channel, where both the resistance and support lines have been respected multiple times, forming a steady sequence of lower highs and lower lows. Each touch of the upper boundary resulted in a clear Turned Around reaction, confirming the strength of seller control within the overall bearish trend. Earlier, the pair entered a range phase in the left section of the chart, where price consolidated before breaking to the downside. This breakout accelerated bearish momentum, pushing EURUSD toward the lower half of the channel. Subsequent attempts at recovery formed shallow corrections, each aligning with the mid-channel dashed trendline, signaling persistent downward pressure. Recently, price approached the Buyer Zone near the 1.1480–1.1500 region, which also overlaps with the broader Support Level and the lower boundary of the descending channel. This area has previously acted as a strong reaction zone, and buyers are once again attempting to hold this level. At the moment, the EURUSD pair is showing early signs of a potential corrective rebound, with the price aiming for the nearest resistance level around 1.1540, which also coincides with the seller's zone. This region previously acted as support, and is now expected to serve as a barrier for a retest. As long as the pair remains below the descending resistance line, the broader trend remains bearish. A short-term correction to the level around 1.1540 is likely if buyers continue to defend the support level. However, a deviation from the resistance cluster could trigger renewed selling pressure, potentially sending EURUSD back to the channel bottom for another reaction. In my opinion, the price will move towards TP1 with a target of 1.14800. A confirmed break above the descending resistance line would be the first sign of a possible bullish shift, opening the door for a stronger recovery. Please share this idea with your friends and click "Boost" 🚀
Short
by LegionQ8
21
US Recession Imminent! WARNING!Bond traders are best when it comes to economics. Stock traders not so much. As the chart shows, historically, when rates bunch up, what follows is a recession. During the recession, the economy tries to fix itself by fanning out the yield curve, marking it cheaper to borrow and boosting the economy. The best time to be buying up stocks and going long the market is when the yield curve is uninverted and fanned out wide—not when it is bunched up like this. My followers know this is my first warning of a recession since FEB. 2020. WARNING! Things can get ugly from here very quickly!
TVC:US30YShort
by RealMacro
7
US500 - Oversold at Triple Confluence… Bounce Incoming?US500 is approaching a major oversold zone, where three powerful elements intersect at the same point: • The lower bound of the falling red channel • The blue long-term trendline • The orange structure zone acting as demand ⚔️This alignment creates a strong confluence area, a spot where buyers usually step in to absorb selling pressure and trigger corrective moves. As long as the index holds above this zone, we can expect the possibility of a bullish correction toward the upper trendlines. But if this area fails, the structure would weaken and open the door for deeper downside. Right now, all eyes are on this confluence… will the US500 bounce from the oversold zone, or break through it? 🤔 ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly. 📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management. Good luck! 🍀 All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr.
TICKMILL:US500Long
by TheSignalyst
1
$SPY & $SPX Scenarios — Friday, Nov 21, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX Scenarios — Friday, Nov 21, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 📊 Flash PMIs take center stage: These are the first real-time reads on November growth — high-impact for equities, yields, and recession-tracking. 🧭 Consumer sentiment + inventories wrap the week: UMich final reading offers clues on spending resilience; wholesale inventories remain a shutdown-delayed report. ⚠️ Shutdown backlog: Wholesale inventories (Aug) is still delayed due to the Oct 1–Nov 12 shutdown. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 9:45 AM — S&P Flash PMIs (Nov) • Services: 54.5 (vs 54.8 forecast) • Manufacturing: 52.0 (vs 52.5 forecast) One of the most important releases of the day — markets move off this. ⏰ 10:00 AM — Consumer Sentiment (Final, Nov) Actual: 51.0 Low sentiment continues to weigh on forward demand expectations. ⏰ 10:00 AM — Wholesale Inventories (Aug, delayed report) Actual: 0.1 percent ⚠️ Delayed due to the federal shutdown — low relevance, but still part of the data backlog. ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #SPY #SPX #trading #macro #PMI #consumer #markets #stocks #investing
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
$SPY & $SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Nov 20, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Nov 20, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 📉 Dual labor signals hit premarket: The delayed September employment report and weekly jobless claims land at the same time — a rare setup that can jolt both yields and equities. 🛒 Housing + recession gauges follow shortly after, giving traders a full macro pulse before midday. ⚠️ Reminder: Some October data (leading indicators) may still be affected by shutdown delays. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 8:30 AM — U.S. Employment Report (Delayed Sept) • Payrolls: 50,000 • Unemployment Rate: 4.3% • Wages: 0.3% m/m, 3.7% y/y Treat this like a fresh NFP — major market mover. ⏰ 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 15) Actual: 227,000 Weekly update on cooling/tightening labor conditions. ⏰ 8:30 AM — Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing (Nov) Actual: 1.5 vs –12.8 prior Important for gauging demand softness vs stabilization. ⏰ 10:00 AM — Existing Home Sales (Oct) Actual: 4.10M vs 4.06M forecast Clean read on rate-sensitive housing momentum. ⏰ 10:00 AM — Leading Economic Indicators (Oct) Actual: –0.3% ⚠️ May still be subject to shutdown-related reporting delays. ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #SPY #SPX #trading #macro #jobs #housing #labor #markets #PMI #investing #stocks
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
SPY & SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Nov 19, 2025🔮 SPY & SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Nov 19, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 📉 Manufacturing + housing cluster hits premarket: Philly Fed, Starts, and Permits all drop at 8:30 — a rare combo that can shift the recession narrative quickly. ⚠️ Shutdown-lag still in play: Housing Starts, Building Permits, and the delayed Trade Balance report may not publish due to the Oct 1–Nov 14 shutdown backlog. 📘 FOMC Minutes in the afternoon: Markets focus on cut-timing language, inflation persistence, and financial-conditions assessment. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 8:30 AM — Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing (Nov) Forecast: 3.0 vs –12.8 prior One of the top-tier regional recession indicators. ⏰ 8:30 AM — Housing Starts (Oct) ⏰ 8:30 AM — Building Permits (Oct) ⚠️ Both reports may be delayed due to ongoing data backlog from the federal shutdown. If released, they move rates, homebuilders, and cyclicals. ⏰ 8:30 AM — U.S. Trade Deficit (Aug, delayed report) Forecast: –$61.0B vs –$78.3B prior Lower impact due to being a stale report, but can still nudge GDP tracking. ⏰ 2:00 PM — FOMC Minutes (Oct Meeting) The day’s biggest confirmed market catalyst. ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #SPY #SPX #trading #macro #recession #housing #rates #manufacturing #FOMC #markets #investing
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
#BTC – Isn’t it time to buy?#BTC – Isn’t it time to buy? 🚀 By analyzing market structure and outside news, BTC is approaching the zone where I’d seriously consider entering . 📍 88k–76k is the key range I’m watching for potential buys, aiming for 15–40%+ profit with a 15% stop los s. ⚡️ Important: Wait for LTF entry sign – don’t jump in blindly . Always do your own research before making a move. #CryptoTrading #Bitcoin #BTC #ScalpTrading #CryptoAnalysis #BTCScalp #CryptoStrategy #TradeSmart #HODL #BitcoinAnalysis
Long
by Ash_TheTrader
SPY & SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Nov 18, 2025🔮 SPY & SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Nov 18, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines ⚠️ Shutdown backlog still unresolved: Several October reports scheduled for Tuesday (Import Prices, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization) remain at high risk of delay, which keeps macro visibility muddy and makes equities more sensitive to yields + positioning. 🏠 Housing sentiment check: Homebuilder confidence is one of the few confirmed releases, giving the market a clean read on construction demand and rates pressure. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 8:30 AM — Import Price Index (Oct) ⏰ 8:30 AM — Import Price Index ex-Fuel (Oct) ⏰ 9:15 AM — Industrial Production (Oct) ⏰ 9:15 AM — Capacity Utilization (Oct) ⚠️ All four reports remain at risk of non-release due to the Oct 1–Nov 14 shutdown impact. If they publish, they directly affect inflation expectations and recession probabilities. ⏰ 10:00 AM — Factory Orders (Aug, delayed report) Older data, but could matter slightly since it’s been stuck in the backlog. ⏰ 10:00 AM — Homebuilder Confidence (Nov) Forecast: 37 (prior 37) The only fresh and confirmed economic print of the morning. ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #SPY #SPX #trading #macro #inflation #housing #manufacturing #markets #rates #investing
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
SPY & SPX Scenarios — Week of Nov 17 to Nov 21, 2025🔮 SPY & SPX Scenarios — Week of Nov 17 to Nov 21, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 📉 Shutdown fallout still clearing: Several reports from October remain at risk of delay (especially import prices, industrial production, housing data). Markets may react more to yields and tech leadership while waiting for the data stream to fully normalize. 🏠 Housing + manufacturing week: The middle of the week clusters the biggest releases — Philly Fed, Housing Starts, Permits, and FOMC Minutes. This is where volatility can show up. 📉 Labor digest Thursday: Claims + the delayed September employment report hit at the same time — rare setup that can move both bonds and equities. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) Below are only the events that actually matter for traders (all shutdown-risk items marked ⚠️) MONDAY, NOV 17 ⏰ 8:30 AM — Empire State Manufacturing (Nov)  Forecast: 5.5 vs 10.7 prior  Regional but can influence sentiment on macro slowdown. TUESDAY, NOV 18 ⏰ ⚠️ 8:30 AM — Import Price Index (Oct) ⏰ ⚠️ 9:15 AM — Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (Oct)  Both may still be delayed due to the prior shutdown.  These matter for inflation inputs and growth pulse if they print. WEDNESDAY, NOV 19 — Biggest Day of the Week ⏰ 8:30 AM — Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing (Nov)  Forecast: 3.0 vs –12.8 prior  High-impact regional gauge — often leads ISM. ⏰ ⚠️ 8:30 AM — Housing Starts & Building Permits (Oct)  Shutdown-risk remains; key for housing cycle momentum. ⏰ 2:00 PM — FOMC Minutes (Oct Meeting)  Top-tier macro catalyst of the week.  Markets focus on: cuts timeline, inflation language, financial conditions. THURSDAY, NOV 20 — Labor Cluster ⏰ 8:30 AM — Delayed Employment Report (Sept)  • Nonfarm Payrolls: 22,000  • Unemployment Rate: 4.3%  • Wages: 0.3% m/m  Extremely important — markets treat this like a fresh NFP. ⏰ 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 15)  Forecast: 225,000  Matters even more because CPI/PPI were delayed. ⏰ 10:00 AM — Existing Home Sales (Oct)  Forecast: 4.08M  Secondary but helps gauge consumer + housing softness. FRIDAY, NOV 21 ⏰ 9:45 AM — S&P Flash PMIs (Nov)  • Services: 54.8  • Manufacturing: 52.5  Fastest high-freq read of growth — always matters. ⏰ 10:00 AM — UMich Consumer Sentiment (Final, Nov)  Forecast: 51.0  Low sentiment keeps pressure on consumer outlook. ⚠️ Reports that may be delayed: • Import Prices • Industrial Production & CapU • Housing Starts / Permits • A small chance of lingering delays on later October data ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #SPY #SPX #trading #macro #inflation #jobs #housing #markets #PMI #FOMC #investing
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Nifty Short & Medium Term Support&Resistance_10-Nov-25 to 14-NovNifty Short & Medium Term Support&Resistance_10-Nov-25 to 14-Nov Nifty 25910 Long call ( Buy) was given four weeks before at 24896, Nifty crossed near to 1000 points. Long buy Call was reiterated two weeks before after a dip, with buy on dip for medium to long term perspective. Quarterly results of companies are being released and so far it have mixed results. As the margins and revenue growth are major concern, to be more cautious on picking the right stock and rebalance the portfolio. Overall, the Qtrly Results and Tariffs deal will decide the future path till Dec - Jan for the Nifty. Since it is a Volatile situation SIP route or buy in multiple parcel route with a goal of 3-5 years will workout. US Trade deal, 1st Feb budget and reforms if any will decide Nifty's path. Some of the stocks to watchout given last week are Warree Energies, HDFC AMC, NMDC, Apar, Sharda Crop, VRL Logistics, krishna Phos chem, Cipla, Dr Reddy, Natco ( Buy on Dip as still there is negative trend), Apl Apollo Tubes, Muthoot Finance ( On Dips) , tata Steel ( Contra Stock due to Business Cycle), Bank of Mah, BPCL, CG Power, hero motor, shriram finance. Shared for Analysis purpose only. Dr Reddy and Muthoot Finance have already given near to 10% return. Hence the strategy can be shifted to long considering medium to long and use the opportunity to buy on dips similar to SIP. Current Short Term Resistance are 26000 and 26270 ( all time high). It need to break the resistance 26270 decisively to move up to 27000 target in med-long term. Nifty Short Term Supports ( Multiple Supports are there between 25000-25500): 25670 (Jun 2025 High) 25360-25420 ( Sep high and trendline support as shown in chart) 25300-25350 (Two Fibonacci resistance shown ) - Major Support Hence 25300- 25420 acts as major short term support. 25500 ( 25441 Sep 18th 2025 High ) 25450 ( 25442 is the Aug 2025 high) 25200 ( 25154 Aug 2025 high) 25000 ( Milestone) Short Term Resistance 1.26098 ( Recent two week high) 2.26269 ( All time High) Medium Term Support: 1.24700 (Trend Line as shown) 2. 24000-24170 (Fibonacci Retracements Supports- Two Supports in this zone 24116 & 24171 as shown) 3. 23500-23700 (Fibonacci Retracements Supports- Two Supports in this zone 23608 & 23707 as shown) 2. 23000 Medium Term Resistance: 1.27000 ( Need to decisively break 26269 all time high) This resistance is based on Fibonacci resistance at 27034 Long term resistance: 1.28000 ( Need to decisively break and move up 27000)This resistance is based on Fibonacci resistance at 28106 Long Term Support 1.22700-23000 ( Trend line and Mar 2024 High) 2.Big support at 20000 (Sep 2023 high)
NSE:NIFTYLong
by karthikss
SPY & SPX Scenarios — Friday, Nov 14, 2025🔮 SPY & SPX Scenarios — Friday, Nov 14, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🚨 Shutdown disruption continues: The entire Retail Sales + PPI complex — normally one of the biggest monthly movers — is still at risk of nondelivery. Markets will trade on expectations, not prints. 📉 Volatility watch: With CPI, Claims, and Retail Sales all in backlog, positioning remains thin and reactive to yields + global risk sentiment. 💵 Bond market tone dominates: Without fresh inflation data, Treasury moves may guide SPX levels more than usual. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) All major data below is shutdown-risk flagged. ⏰ ⚠️ 8:30 AM — Retail Sales (Oct)  Forecast: -0.2%  Shutdown delay risk — high ⏰ ⚠️ 8:30 AM — Retail Sales ex-Auto (Oct)  Forecast: +0.2%  Shutdown delay risk — high ⏰ ⚠️ 8:30 AM — Producer Price Index (PPI, Oct)  Headline: +0.1%  Core: +0.3%  Shutdown delay risk — high ⏰ ⚠️ 10:00 AM — Business Inventories (Sept)  Forecast: +0.2%  Shutdown delay risk — medium 👉 All above data normally moves markets, especially Retail Sales + PPI. Today, traders only get the reaction if the numbers publish. ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational and informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #SPY #SPX #trading #inflation #PPI #RetailSales #macro #economy #Fed #markets #risk #shutdown
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
$SPY $SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Nov 13, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY SP:SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Nov 13, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🚨 Inflation spotlight (⚠️ delay risk): October CPI and Jobless Claims — both subject to government shutdown delay — were originally scheduled for release this morning. Markets may stay cautious or reactive to leaks and private inflation trackers in the absence of official prints. 💬 Fed rotation continues: A packed Fed lineup — Mary Daly, John Williams, Kashkari, Hammack, and Bostic — will steer tone across the day, shaping expectations for December guidance. 📉 Budget check: A fresh federal deficit report (-$215B) adds to the fiscal backdrop narrative, though reaction may stay muted if major data doesn’t hit. 📊 Key Data and Events (ET) ⏰ 8:00 AM — Mary Daly (San Francisco Fed) speech ⏰ ⚠️ 8:30 AM — Consumer Price Index (Oct) | +0.3% MoM | +3.1% YoY (subject to delay) ⏰ ⚠️ 8:30 AM — Core CPI (Oct) | +0.3% MoM | +3.1% YoY (subject to delay) ⏰ ⚠️ 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 8) | 225,000 forecast (subject to delay) ⏰ 9:20 AM — John Williams (NY Fed) welcoming remarks ⏰ 10:25 AM — Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis Fed) opening remarks ⏰ 12:15 PM — Alberto Musalem (St. Louis Fed) speech ⏰ 12:20 PM — Beth Hammack (Cleveland Fed) speech ⏰ 2:00 PM — Monthly U.S. Federal Budget (Oct) | -$215B deficit vs -$257.5B prior ⏰ 3:20 PM — Raphael Bostic (Atlanta Fed) speech ⚠️ Note: CPI and Jobless Claims carry the highest market impact this week — but both remain at risk of delay due to the ongoing federal data blackout. Fed speakers and any CPI proxies (like Cleveland Fed’s nowcast) will drive intraday volatility instead. ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational and informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #SPY #SPX #trading #CPI #inflation #Fed #Williams #Bostic #Musanlem #Hammack #macro #markets #yields #shutdown
AMEX:SPY
by TrendTao
2
$SPY $SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Nov 12, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY SP:SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Nov 12, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 💬 Fed marathon day: Six Fed officials speak across the day, led by Williams, Waller, and Bostic — giving markets multiple reads on the Fed’s reaction to soft labor data and upcoming inflation prints. 📉 Policy sensitivity rising: With no major macro releases this week, investors are hypersensitive to tone shifts in Fed commentary — especially regarding rate-cut timing and balance sheet guidance. 🧩 Positioning churn: After a light Tuesday session, liquidity normalizes as equities digest global risk appetite and pre-CPI setups. 📊 Key Data and Events (ET) ⏰ 9:20 AM — John Williams (NY Fed) ⏰ 10:00 AM — Anna Paulson (Philadelphia Fed) ⏰ 10:20 AM — Chris Waller (Fed Governor) ⏰ 12:15 PM — Raphael Bostic (Atlanta Fed) ⏰ 12:30 PM — Stephen Miran (Fed Governor) ⏰ 4:00 PM — Susan Collins (Boston Fed) ⚠️ Note: No economic data releases today — markets will key off Fed tone and Treasury yield movement ahead of Thursday’s CPI and jobless claims (both still at risk of delay). ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational and informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #SPY #SPX #trading #Fed #Williams #Waller #Bostic #Miran #Collins #macro #inflation #yields #markets
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao