Here is a recalculated path to possible market bottom IF the current market top is in.
Key Takeaways: Not as shallow or long as initial projections
For now the bottom could be around August-September 2024 and no longer at the end of 2024 or first quarter of 2025 as initially projected. The maximum bottom based on historical data is 2850 and not likely. At best...
Next leg will be down, whether it continues down tomorrow or briefly moves up is to be seen. IF Intermediate wave 3 ended, it lasted less than the computer modeled 25 days as I forecasted. This would further mean Intermediate wave 5 must be less than or equal to the length of Intermediate wave 3 which was 20 days per the close on Friday.
The models indicate...
We are potentially in the early stages of Primary wave 5 in overall Cycle A of SuperCycle 2. SuperCycle 2 began shortly after the beginning of January this year as we are yet to revisit a new all-time high for the S&P 500 index. The wave number nomenclature for this wave being analyzed is 152A5. I may reference the end of this structure (2A5 or A5) when comparing...
I had the markets in wave 1532C, but a few things happened late or not at all. In fact, this whole downturn in January was 2 months sooner than I had initially forecasting. Timing the market is hard, and I not perfect. Learning from my mistakes and asking what could have happened or where did I go wrong is what makes me better at all of this. I have missed three...
Based on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on June 3, 2022 with a closing price of...
Based on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on May 27, 2022 with a closing price of...
The market should finish Intermediate Wave 4 today, possibly in the morning before we head down again to Groundhog Day. My models have the most agreement around 4436 for the top so that is my conservative top for now. Wave 5 still needs to take us below Intermediate Wave 3's bottom of 4222.62. Earliest guess is a bottom south of 4100 and relatively quick. I will...
This appears to be perfectly in line with an expected correction. Cycle 1 just end at the beginning of January, which was about 2 earlier than my initial estimates but that is why I call them estimates. Cycle 2 should bottom around early March.
Historically speaking, the second Cycle wave retraces the length of its wave 1 by 10-23%. The largest retracement was...
