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Measuredmove

Bitcoin Daily Update (day 277)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. For a variety of reasons I no longer believe that $2,718 will be the bottom of the 2018 Bitcoin’ bear market. I am now very confident that we will return to $1,000 before finding a bottom. That is due to Tyler Jenks’ hyperwave theory and the Point of Control on the Visible Range Volume Profile with > 2 year look back | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018, however I do not believe that will be the bottom. Strongly expect ETH to return to single digits before the end of 2019. Previous analysis: “Still expecting consolidation towards the 33 MA, however the next 24 hours are crucial. If we breakdown $3,420 support then that changes everything.” Position: Short ETH:BTC 0.03109 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.0008057 | Short XRPBTC from 0.00009434 | Short ADA:BTC from 954 sats | Short LTC:BTC from 0.00778 Patterns: Hyperwave Horizontal support and resistance: S = $2,750 - $3,000 | R = $3,400 should become resistance BTCUSDSHORTS: Threatening a brand new ATH’ Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.1318% Short term trend (4 day MA): Fully body of the candle below Medium term trend (9 day MA): Rolled over hard Long term trend ( 33 day MA): Bearish af’ Overall trend: Bearish as it gets Volume: Declined as the flag consolidated and has started to increase on the breakdown Candlestick analysis: Today closed an extended range bearish candle that wicked of a throwback to the flag Ichimoku Cloud: Basically useless when the market starts moving, and this isn’t even that volatile imo’. This is why I mainly like to use it as a not trade zone. TD’ Sequential: R6 / A13 Visible Range: Point of control = $950 Price action: 24h: -11.33% Bollinger Bands: Bottom band = $3,137 Trendline: Expecting bear flag to form top of new bear trend Daily Trend (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend): Bearish and starting to line up with the expected trend resistance Parabolic SAR: $4,370 RSI: Confirmed h&s Stochastic: Oversold. Will it get stuck at the bottom? Last Day Rule: Did a great job. Starting to wish that I went with my normal stop entry right below. Summary: I cannot remember the last time I saw this many strong signals from both bulls and bears. I am actually very interested to see what happens over the next 1d - 1w. Bullish Case BTCUSDSHORTS’ are threatening ATH’ levels. Makes me think of ETHUSDSHORTS’ blowing through the prior ATH’ in September and continuing to make new ATH’s. Going long when BTC’ shorts are at an all time high has been very profitable this year. However that cannot last forever and this could be when it changes. Nevertheless the funding rates are getting unsustainably high for the shorts and it really feels like a return to the mean (~0.01%) is necessary. Furthermore the price action is -11.33% over the last 24 hours. The reason I always am sure to check is because I have gotten rekt enough time taking sweet setups, like the bear flag you see below, when the price had already moved > 10% in 24 hours. That is why I have a strict no trade zone if, for example, I want to long when the price is > / = +10% in the last 24 hours. That type of movement is unsustainable as well. However in order to see capitulation we need that type of unsustainable / unimaginable price movement over ~ 1 week. That is when people really start to freak out / panic. Bearish Case Bear flag to $1,650 Consensio is fully bearish (4 / 9 / 33 MA’s). My most important indicators are Consensio and patterns. When things look neutral and the trend is firmly going in one direction then it is usually very, very profitable to bet on the continuation of the trend. Nevertheless, I am in a no short zone on Bitcoin’ / Eth’ due to the price action over the last 24 hours. Furthermore, I see too much support from < / = $3,000 and I do not like the risk:reward of entering a short.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
5
A Minor Reversal Setup On USOIL USOIL opened with a massive gap that broke through some resistance lines outlined in the earlier posts. Currently the market participants are seemingly waiting for a pullback to enter limit buys and potentially targeting couple of hundred ticks. This chart shows possible price movements during the next couple of weeks. Limit buy orders around 5225, the top of the previous pullback range, with wider stops seem reasonable for now. It is recommended to reduce the position size to 1/2 and add as the position moves into green territory.
TVC:USOILLong
by Zoen_Trieste
Follow Up On EURUSD DailyEURUSD demonstrated a sharp movement higher after touching the 50% retracement of its first setup bull leg. It is reasonable to be taking profit around the 61.80% area if one's short or having limit buy orders if one's looking for a pullback trend continuation play. At this point, we've had a measured move lower, some call it a bear trap, and a sharp reversal higher into the previous trading range. In terms of probability, reaching the top of the trading range around 1.1875 seems has better odds.
Long
by Zoen_Trieste
Dollar Index Overview and EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY Warning: Most of the readers may find this article unnecessary and boring. We prepared this analysis for the traders who like to have a plan and view on their trading activity. In this analysis, we want to take a look at the medium, long-term roadmap of the USD, which follows the winds of FED’s rate hikes in parallel with the recovery of economic data in the US. There are six components in the Dollar Index basket: EUR WEIGHT 0.576 JPY WEIGHT 0.136 GBP WEIGHT 0.119 CAD WEIGHT 0.091 SEK WEIGHT 0.042 CHF WEIGHT 0.036 EURO: Dovish ECB and no rate hikes earlier than the first quarter of 2019. STERLING: Brexit uncertainties and Carney who was unable to convince the market of the continued interest rate hikes despite the 25bp rate hike from the BOE. YEN: The BOJ, which reduces its growth forecasts and 2020 inflation forecasts So, three main components of the basket do not give positive signals. Technically: Weekly Chart: After the decline that started with the 2008 crisis, DXY completed base formation and started to move up. At Fibo 61.8, completed the correction and continue to rise. The Measured Move Up formation will be completed with the breakout of 103.90 and in this case, we can speak much higher levels in the dollar index. Daily Chart: The inverse SHS pattern formation is remarkable and I expect the increase in the dollar index to accelerate with the breaking of 95.50 resistance. On the 4 Hours chart, we see an ascending triangle formation, and formation will be completed by the breakout of 95.50 resistance. Conclusion: Although DXY is stuck in a triangle and it needs new catalysts to go higher, longterm or midterm, it gives the signals of higher levels after the consolidation. After the possible breakout of 95.50, we expect the index to meet 96, 96.50, 99.20 and the target of the formation 102.40 When 103.90 is broken, the scenario will completely change. Shortly; despite Trump tweets, trade wars and upcoming US elections, as it’s been said, “Dollar is still the King”
TVC:DXYLong
by chartreader_pro
3
USOIL Corrected 38.2% On Higher TFsUSOIL just saw the anticipated correction to 38.2 FIB level of its impulse leg. The previous setup leg fading trade is closed and building long positions from here seems reasonable. However, theres a possibility that it'll see another round of selling that can potentially take it down to the 61.8% FIB level around 6805. Judging from previous experience with oil, corrections like this are bought pretty quickly, so monitoring V type of price action on higher TFs can provide additional information.
TVC:USOILLong
by Zoen_Trieste
A Potential 2618 Sell PatternUSOIL rebounded from a second leg down from its top. The minor trend still remains down but a mean reversion pullback formation is taking place. Higher TFs show a great entry level for swing buyers. Being almost at the 150 day moving average and the overextended state of this market being normalised, it is probable that some demand will be attracted here. The price currently is retreating after reaching the 0.382 fib retracement of previous bear leg and potentially could reach 0.618. It is around these levels that the market will show its hand on whether it will be going for the recent highs again or continue with the down trend.
TVC:USOILShort
by Zoen_Trieste
Gold Potential Long OpportunityGold wants higher but bears are giving a good fight here. The minor trend is down and 0.236 of fib extension of the last leg down is clearly showing signs of resistance around the level of 1310. This long set up is essentially a counter trend setup which is not recommended usually but given the current circumstance, it might work out fine. Failing around this area, will ultimately lead to lower price around 1270, so tight stops are necessary.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by Zoen_Trieste