I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
For a variety of reasons I no longer believe that $2,718 will be the bottom of the 2018 Bitcoin’ bear market. I am now very confident that we will return to $1,000 before finding a bottom. That is due to Tyler Jenks’ hyperwave theory and the Point of Control on the Visible Range Volume Profile with > 2 year look back | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018, however I do not believe that will be the bottom. Strongly expect ETH to return to single digits before the end of 2019.
Previous analysis: “Still expecting consolidation towards the 33 MA, however the next 24 hours are crucial. If we breakdown $3,420 support then that changes everything.”
Position: Short ETH:BTC 0.03109 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.0008057 | Short XRPBTC from 0.00009434 | Short ADA:BTC from 954 sats | Short LTC:BTC from 0.00778
Patterns: Hyperwave
Horizontal support and resistance: S = $2,750 - $3,000 | R = $3,400 should become resistance
BTCUSDSHORTS: Threatening a brand new ATH’
Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.1318%
Short term trend (4 day MA): Fully body of the candle below
Medium term trend (9 day MA): Rolled over hard
Long term trend ( 33 day MA): Bearish af’
Overall trend: Bearish as it gets
Volume: Declined as the flag consolidated and has started to increase on the breakdown
Candlestick analysis: Today closed an extended range bearish candle that wicked of a throwback to the flag
Ichimoku Cloud: Basically useless when the market starts moving, and this isn’t even that volatile imo’. This is why I mainly like to use it as a not trade zone.
TD’ Sequential: R6 / A13
Visible Range: Point of control = $950
Price action: 24h: -11.33%
Bollinger Bands: Bottom band = $3,137
Trendline: Expecting bear flag to form top of new bear trend
Daily Trend (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend): Bearish and starting to line up with the expected trend resistance
Parabolic SAR: $4,370
RSI: Confirmed h&s
Stochastic: Oversold. Will it get stuck at the bottom?
Last Day Rule: Did a great job. Starting to wish that I went with my normal stop entry right below.
Summary: I cannot remember the last time I saw this many strong signals from both bulls and bears. I am actually very interested to see what happens over the next 1d - 1w.
Bullish Case
BTCUSDSHORTS’ are threatening ATH’ levels. Makes me think of ETHUSDSHORTS’ blowing through the prior ATH’ in September and continuing to make new ATH’s.
Going long when BTC’ shorts are at an all time high has been very profitable this year. However that cannot last forever and this could be when it changes. Nevertheless the funding rates are getting unsustainably high for the shorts and it really feels like a return to the mean (~0.01%) is necessary.
Furthermore the price action is -11.33% over the last 24 hours. The reason I always am sure to check is because I have gotten rekt enough time taking sweet setups, like the bear flag you see below, when the price had already moved > 10% in 24 hours.
That is why I have a strict no trade zone if, for example, I want to long when the price is > / = +10% in the last 24 hours. That type of movement is unsustainable as well.
However in order to see capitulation we need that type of unsustainable / unimaginable price movement over ~ 1 week. That is when people really start to freak out / panic.
Bearish Case
Bear flag to $1,650
Consensio is fully bearish (4 / 9 / 33 MA’s). My most important indicators are Consensio and patterns. When things look neutral and the trend is firmly going in one direction then it is usually very, very profitable to bet on the continuation of the trend.
Nevertheless, I am in a no short zone on Bitcoin’ / Eth’ due to the price action over the last 24 hours. Furthermore, I see too much support from < / = $3,000 and I do not like the risk:reward of entering a short.
For a variety of reasons I no longer believe that $2,718 will be the bottom of the 2018 Bitcoin’ bear market. I am now very confident that we will return to $1,000 before finding a bottom. That is due to Tyler Jenks’ hyperwave theory and the Point of Control on the Visible Range Volume Profile with > 2 year look back | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018, however I do not believe that will be the bottom. Strongly expect ETH to return to single digits before the end of 2019.
Previous analysis: “Still expecting consolidation towards the 33 MA, however the next 24 hours are crucial. If we breakdown $3,420 support then that changes everything.”
Position: Short ETH:BTC 0.03109 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.0008057 | Short XRPBTC from 0.00009434 | Short ADA:BTC from 954 sats | Short LTC:BTC from 0.00778
Patterns: Hyperwave
Horizontal support and resistance: S = $2,750 - $3,000 | R = $3,400 should become resistance
BTCUSDSHORTS: Threatening a brand new ATH’
Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.1318%
Short term trend (4 day MA): Fully body of the candle below
Medium term trend (9 day MA): Rolled over hard
Long term trend ( 33 day MA): Bearish af’
Overall trend: Bearish as it gets
Volume: Declined as the flag consolidated and has started to increase on the breakdown
Candlestick analysis: Today closed an extended range bearish candle that wicked of a throwback to the flag
Ichimoku Cloud: Basically useless when the market starts moving, and this isn’t even that volatile imo’. This is why I mainly like to use it as a not trade zone.
TD’ Sequential: R6 / A13
Visible Range: Point of control = $950
Price action: 24h: -11.33%
Bollinger Bands: Bottom band = $3,137
Trendline: Expecting bear flag to form top of new bear trend
Daily Trend (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend): Bearish and starting to line up with the expected trend resistance
Parabolic SAR: $4,370
RSI: Confirmed h&s
Stochastic: Oversold. Will it get stuck at the bottom?
Last Day Rule: Did a great job. Starting to wish that I went with my normal stop entry right below.
Summary: I cannot remember the last time I saw this many strong signals from both bulls and bears. I am actually very interested to see what happens over the next 1d - 1w.
Bullish Case
BTCUSDSHORTS’ are threatening ATH’ levels. Makes me think of ETHUSDSHORTS’ blowing through the prior ATH’ in September and continuing to make new ATH’s.
Going long when BTC’ shorts are at an all time high has been very profitable this year. However that cannot last forever and this could be when it changes. Nevertheless the funding rates are getting unsustainably high for the shorts and it really feels like a return to the mean (~0.01%) is necessary.
Furthermore the price action is -11.33% over the last 24 hours. The reason I always am sure to check is because I have gotten rekt enough time taking sweet setups, like the bear flag you see below, when the price had already moved > 10% in 24 hours.
That is why I have a strict no trade zone if, for example, I want to long when the price is > / = +10% in the last 24 hours. That type of movement is unsustainable as well.
However in order to see capitulation we need that type of unsustainable / unimaginable price movement over ~ 1 week. That is when people really start to freak out / panic.
Bearish Case
Bear flag to $1,650
Consensio is fully bearish (4 / 9 / 33 MA’s). My most important indicators are Consensio and patterns. When things look neutral and the trend is firmly going in one direction then it is usually very, very profitable to bet on the continuation of the trend.
Nevertheless, I am in a no short zone on Bitcoin’ / Eth’ due to the price action over the last 24 hours. Furthermore, I see too much support from < / = $3,000 and I do not like the risk:reward of entering a short.
emasar Indicator is available for purchase at alphanalysis.io/product/emasar/