NQ - If you're curious to where Nasdaq is going todayNot much to babble.
This is my intraday Chart.
TGT at the Centerline...where else? §8-)
Trade save. NO FOMO!!!
Medianline
MSTR Ponzi is paying for my yearly steak & lobster subscriptionWe can see that from the white Centerline, MSTR has only been heading south. In contrast, Bitcoin has held up quite a bit better so far.
If you go back through my posts, you’ll see that I’ve been warning for a long time that MSTR is basically feeding itself. That simply can’t end well!
Either way – we gratefully take our profit and wait until we reach the lower centerline. Because we know there’s about an 80% chance that the price will fall back into temporary equilibrium, the Centerline
And if you’re not too greedy, well then you take 70%–80% of the profits now and let the rest run.
Anyone who was able to learn something from this trade or even make profits is welcome to boost and comment. §8-)
YT video will be available tomorrow.
...and on we go.
NQ – Nasdaq follows the witch’s SPY prophecyNot only is the S&P 500 following the oracle in the SPY, but the Nasdaq has also given us a short signal. So, the scenario is the same as with SPY: short down to the Centerline.
For the indicator traders, I’ve also added the EMA(10) and EMA(20). Look at how well they’ve provided support so far. If the EMA(20) cracks, things will get hot. And if the CIB line (Change In Behavior) also breaks, then all hell breaks loose!
As already mentioned in the SPY post, it wouldn’t be a shame to take at least 50% of the profits you’ve accumulated so far. Because if it goes further up, e.g. above the U-MLH, you still have 50% left to benefit. If it goes down, we’ve already bagged 50%.
BTW: At the 1/4 line, we can usually expect support.
Exciting times, when maybe it’s better to sit still and keep your hands to yourself.
I’ll create the YT video with details tomorrow.
Happy profits to you all!
SPY – No hocus-pocus – Now the witch is hunting the bullsHappy Hump-Day y'all!
In the last post (see linked chart), I explained what the witch sees in the future.
A possible scenario that is long overdue: the markets are letting out air.
With the candles from yesterday and the day before, we have confirmation that the S&P 500 is heading south. That has consequences that not many want to see right now.
The bulls will be overrun, panic selling will kick in and drive the markets into the ground even faster. The current profit target is still the Centerline, as marked with the red arrow.
Whoever doesn’t cash in at least 50% of their gains now will end up in the witch’s cauldron §8-)
Let’s see how this develops.
The YT Video will be up tomorrow - gotta feed the witches cat §8-)
May the broom be with you!
XMRUSD - Monero is strong. But strong enough?Can Monero break the U-MLH of the yellow Fork to stop the down-drift?
In the last post we see that Monero has the potential to reach the white Centerline at around $240. At least this is the view on the weekly Chart.
On the other hand we see support at the U-MLH in the daily Chart.
Until the U-MLH of the yellow Fork isn't breached by a open and close outside, the weekly short projection is in play.
GSL - Global Shipping Lease With Exceptional SignalsGlobal Ship Lease (GSL) stands out as a financially solid, deeply undervalued shipping play with improving earnings and favorable macro tailwinds.
If the stock breaks out above the Cup-& Handle pattern, it could be an attractive long opportunity.
For value-focused traders, the combination of low multiples, strong fundamentals, and technical setups makes GSL hard to ignore.
Global Ship Lease has nearly fully chartered its fleet—96% for 2025 and 80% for 2026—giving it strong cash flow visibility amid market turbulence.
On to the technical side:
From 2022 until now, the stock has traded within a large range of 14.62 – 29.90 and is now facing, for the third time, a breakout from the currently formed cup & handle pattern.
In anticipation of today’s breakout on news, I take this as my starting gun to begin building a position. I will be monitoring the stock closely intraday and trading accordingly.
Within the fork, we can see the price hitting the 1/4 line and getting slightly sold off. Ideally, we’d see a pullback to the CL or below. In the longer term, provided the fundamentals support the price, I would build larger positions at the LPL (Last Pivot Low).
The target for this stock is at least the U-MLH as PTG1 = 50% target at $36, and next the WL1 (PTG2) as the 100% target at around $48.
It goes without saying that this trade is not a quickie.
Good luck, and thanks for a like!
DOGEUSD Has reached it's (first?) targetAfter reaching the Centerline, price eitheradvances to the Upper Extreme (U-MLH), or it reverses and it's target is the L-MLH, the lower Extreme of the Fork.
An Open & Close below the Centerline would indicate further progress to the downside.
A stop above the last high with a target around 2 would be the trade I would take.
ETHUSD - Ethereum can't crack the Warning lineWe can see ETHUSD nibbling at the WL.
This currently looks like a short-term pullback.
If Ether pulls back, we will at least see the U-MLH.
After that, the centerline would be the next target before further support can be expected.
BTCUSD - Bitcoin potential at least 125'400Bitcoin is trading within the Pendulum Fork.
After the CL was reached, the price should have gone to the L-MLH.
However, this was not achieved, and instead a HAGOPIAN was left behind.
In most cases, this HAGOPIAN will drive the price higher than where it came from.
Since we know that in about 80% of all cases the market moves to the CL, we also have a good chance this time of reaching the high of at least 125,400. Personally, I see the target quite a bit higher, but let’s see what BTCUSD has in store for us.
Thanks for the likes peeps §8-)
Reddit - Impressive But I Stalk A ShortReddit is currently delivering excellent figures – revenue and user base are booming, profits have returned, and AI partnerships are creating strong conditions for growth. However, the current share price reflects this upward momentum with (over-)enthusiasm. Exciting for speculative investors, but those focused on value should wait for a pullback.
And that’s exactly the hook for why I’m lying in wait for a short trade.
Let’s take a look at the technical side – the chart analysis:
We can see that several CIB lines (Change in Behavior) have been broken.
And bam! – the market hits our 80%-probability profit target.
We know what that means: the market is in equilibrium.
And when the market acts like a couch potato, we also know it can’t stay that way for long.
So, what are the options?
Up or down.
Up?
Could happen – human greed is boundless and goes further than the moon, as we’re currently seeing.
Down?
If we take the fundamental analysis into account, and our common sense also tells us that Reddit is overheated, then this short idea is definitely worth investigating.
I see two possibilities:
1. Speculative short:
Here I would go with options, since shorts are always trickier than longs. You simply have more time to be right.
2. Wait for a trigger signal:
If we see the market leave the couch (the CL), we look at the bars and find a good entry with a sensible risk/reward, targeting:
a) the 1/4 line
b) the L-MLH
Happy hunting!
CVNA - Stinky Fish Short SetupAs can be seen from past analyses of CVNA, they have rarely played out as expected. And yet – this time too, I will be trading CVNA short.
Why again?
Because it’s a setup that follows the rules of the Forks.
Setups are one part of a system.
Just one part – nothing more.
A setup has a statistical probability of generating a profit. But this probability only works if we play it as often as possible.
It’s like the lottery: if you don’t play, you can’t win. And just when you don’t play, you would have won ;-)
OK – in the lottery, the odds are inversely against the player.
This setup, however, has a positive expectancy. And that’s why I will also initiate a short this time.
Here are the triggers:
At (1) we see that the market suffered a sharp sell-off at a confluence point. This didn’t happen for no reason! At least from the perspective of technical analysis, specifically the rules of forks, the market reached an upper extreme – the U-MLH.
In addition, we also see one of the fork rule-book patterns occurring:
"If the market closes outside the fork, we can expect a test/retest back to the line."
Here, the yellow fork is meant:
The market opens and closes outside the L-MLH, reverses, and promptly tests the L-MLH before continuing down in the breakout direction.
So:
a) Yellow fork test/retest after breaking out of the fork
b) Reaching the U-MLH and sharp sell-off
= Short setup
The natural target is the equilibrium – the center-line (PTG1).
And another target for me, based on my experience, is the 1/4 line (PTG2) if the market breaks the CL.
I will execute my entry on a daily basis, possibly with options or a combination with the underlying.
Wishing you all much success!
TESLA Is Counting Down The Clock – Moonshot?The red and green lines nicely illustrate what true support and resistance look like.
At the moment, it appears that the market has formed support again (1), but we can’t really confirm this since we don’t have a higher high that has been broken. So we can only assume that the base is at the C point.
We’ve been trading within the fork for several months now, which suggests that we’re once again in a longer-term upward movement.
If that’s the case, then we look for a nice profit target (PTG1) at the CL, because we know there’s over an 80% chance of reaching it.
An open and close outside the fork would be an exit signal, and could indicate a possible reversal to a short position.
I’ll explain further details in the YT video.
AMZN - Amazon Hit The 80% profit Target. Trend change ahead?On this chart we have 2 forks.
Orange: the pullback fork
It shows us where the equilibrium is — at the centerline, which the market respected to the tick (1).
After that, there were several bars that formed support (2).
When the CIB line was broken (3), the market gapped above the orange centerline and made its way up to the white centerline (5), the target that we can expect in around 80% of all cases.
Note the confluence point where the centerline of the white fork and the upper median line parallel (U-MLH) of the orange fork meet.
A day later, we saw a sharp sell-off within just one bar! Is this now another trend reversal?
No, clearly not.
For a trend reversal to occur, the market would have to break the white L-MLH (lower median line parallel). As long as the market is trading within the white fork, we remain long.
I’ll make a YT video soon, covering the details.
Wishing you all a successful new trading week.
Crude Oil setting up for a Long Trade to $78.40In the long term, Crude Oil is in a short position.
We can see this from the red pendulum fork, which projects the price movement downward.
However, in the short- to medium-term, we're long, as clearly illustrated by the white fork. Supporting the case for higher prices is the Hagopian signal that occurred on June 24, 2025.
This essentially means that the market is expected to rise beyond the point it came from—specifically, the C-point of the red fork. The target would therefore be around $78.40 in the coming weeks or months, which does seem quite ambitious.
But as long as price remains within the boundaries of the white fork, we're in an upward mode, and the potential profit target of $78.40 remains valid.
Also, the fact that Crude Oil is finding support exactly at the L-MLH (Lower Median Line Parallel) of the white fork gives me further confidence in a long trade.
Crude: Long and: Don't forget to watch the follow-up Video.
BTCUSD - Right to the point!In the last post (see the Linked Chart), I showed why BTCUSD would fall, and I also pointed out where the first price level for a possible pause might be.
On Friday, that level was reached, and the market seems to be turning *on the dot*. Will we now see higher prices again, or even a new all-time high? Let’s take a closer look:
The “confluence” point is marked by the white fork and the yellow modified Schiff fork. This point lies exactly on the 1/4 line. And this line often indicates temporary levels where at least a pause in the movement can be expected.
When we look at what Bitcoin did at this price level in mid-June, it seems likely that it will rise again. The overall pattern, from the centerline to the 1/4 line, looks extremely similar (see the A-B-C Wave Pattern)!
And yet, I’m not entirely convinced by the picture. Because this was the second time we reached the centerline.
For the brave, this wouldn’t be a bad entry point—or an opportunity to increase the position after this pullback. A possible stop for traders could be placed just below the current low, with targets at the centerline of course.
But why not just lean back, enjoy the profits, and switch into observation mode for now…
I will also make a video that explains the details and connections more clearly.
Happy Monday and stay patient to fight the FOMO! §8-)
Why NQ is probably tanking big timeIn this weekly chart, we see QQQ, which represents the Nasdaq.
As we can see, it had a hell of a run up.
Too far too fast IMO, and it reached the stretch level at the Upper Medianline Parallel.
The natural move is now to let go, take a breath and trade down to center again, which is the Centerline.
After all the most major and most important earnings results are over, and Funds have pumped up their gains through manipulative Options plays, it's time to reap what they have planted and book the gains.
It's all in line with, all moves are at the point, and everything is showing in a simple chart.
Unless price is opening and closing outside of the U-MLH, it's time to load the Boat and sail to the South.
GLD – Why Gold Is a Clear Short to MePrice moved from the Lower Median Line (L-MLH) up to the Centerline, fulfilling the 80% rule.
Then we had two Hagopians, which sent price right back to the Centerline.
After the breakout above the Centerline, the next target was the Upper Median Line Parallel (U-MLH), which was reached rather quickly.
Finally, price broke above the U-MLH and was pulled up toward the Warning Line (WL).
Is this the end of the happy story?
I think so—because Gold has now reached its 2nd standard deviation, and there’s probably no more gas left in the tank.
The Trade:
- A logical target is the U-MLH.
- A secondary target is the Centerline.
At the very least, if you're long, this might be a good time to take some profits—because no tree grows to the moon.
For further details, I will follow-up with a Video explanation - See my Signature.
XMRUSD - Monero And It's Warning-LinesToday we’re analyzing Monero, with a focus on a new aspect of Median Lines — the Warning Lines, or WL for short.
Warning Lines are simply extensions of the distance between the Center Line (CL) and one of the Median Line’s outer boundaries, either the Upper Median Line Parallel (U-MLH) or the Lower Median Line Parallel (L-MLH).
So why are they important for us in our trading?
As you can see, WL1 and WL2 mark important price levels. WL2 is where price reversed, while WL1 acts as resistance.
Just like with the standard lines, our full trading rule set applies to Warning Lines too. This includes scenarios like a Hagopian, a breakout or "Zoom Through," and the Test and Re-Test.
Now, looking at the current analysis:
The price was rejected at WL1 after falling from WL2. This shows strong resistance at WL1, and now the price is heading toward the U-MLH.
If the price breaks below the U-MLH and starts opening and closing within the Fork again, there’s a strong chance it will move back toward the Center Line in the near future.
That could be your signal to take more profits, close the position, or possibly even short Monero.
Personally, I find it difficult to short crypto due to the high risk of manipulation by whales in the market. I prefer not to get caught in a short position if the price suddenly gaps to the upside. So I probably look to take a new position or add to an existing one, since it is a fair level where price found it's center.
That’s it for today.
Did you learn something new?
Great. See you next time, and trade safe.
Gold - Bullish and here's whyPrice traveled within the Red Fork, until it broke the CIB Line, which is indicating a Change In Behavior.
From there on, sideways action, until the break of the Red U-MLH happened.
After the close above the Red U-MLH, price has tested it the 3rd time now. At the time of writing, the Bar looks like a PinBar. So it has good sepparation from the bottom, or a long Down-Wick. That's indicates good strenght.
To me this looks like a good long trade, but as everytime, play it save and don't let greed eat your brain ;-)
XRPUSD - Target reached. Reversal on the plateSo, that was a nice long trade.
Now price is stretched at the Upper Medianline Parallel (U-MLH).
As of the time of writing, I already see price pulling back into the Fork. A open and close within the Fork would indicate a potential push to the south.
Target would be the Centerline, as it is the level where natural Meanreversion is.
Observation Hat ON! §8-)
COINBASE - My rules say: Down with high probabilityI don't elaborate too much here, because I want to give you a chance to learn something!
As for the Trade, my rules say that it is a good Short.
The Short is not valid anymore, if price open and close above the Upper Extreme!
So, what are the rules?
Well, that's exactly what you will learn today ;-)
Go to my previous post which I will link, and you find everything you need to jump on the Steam-Train if you like.
As my old Mentors always said: "Larn To Earn"
Happy Profits Guys & Gals §8-)
MSTR - Microstrategy Short...for now.The White Fork is created by choosing point A, which must be the lowest price before the swing.
B and C are the natural high and low of the swing we want to measure.
What this gives us is a Pitchfork that projects the most probable path of price.
Additionally, with the three lines that make the Fork, we have the natural extremes above, below, and the center—the mean.
We can see that price started to rise in March 2025.
The 80% rule states that price will reach the Centerline around 80% of the time.
And as we see, it did this time as well. Price reached the CL (Center Line), and immediately the big whales dumped positions.
Then price fell—only to be picked up before reaching the Lower Line, also called the L-MLH or Lower Median Line Parallel.
When price can't make it to this (or any of these) lines, we call this a 'Hagopian,' because it follows 'Hagopian's Rule.' This rule says that if price can't reach 'the line' (the L-MLH in this case), there is a high chance that price will reverse in the previous direction (up in this case), and even go further than where it came from (the Centerline).
And as we see, price indeed traded upwards—beyond where it came from—and overshot the Centerline (CL).
Unfortunately for long-positioned traders, the gas in the goose was empty, and price now starts to head south again, missing the target, which would have been the U-MLH (Upper Median Line Parallel).
So, the open happened below the CL!
If we also see a close this week, I'm ready to initiate a short trade.
Why?
Well, as before, Hagopian’s Rule applies—an indication that price will trade further down than where it came from, which is below $361.
And since we know that the natural target is the Centerline about 80% of the time, we have a heck of a good chance that we’ll be happy campers in a couple of weeks. :-)
With a risk/reward of about 2 to 3, and such a high chance of a profitable trade, I’ll sleep like a baby in the coming weeks.
The trade idea would be cancelled if price closes above the CL this Friday.
Let’s stalk it closely...
80% Of Time - A Trading Edge You Don't Want To MissDo you want to know why trading with median lines, also known as pitchforks, can be so successful? It’s simple:
Prices swing from one extreme back to the middle.
From the middle, they often swing to the other extreme.
What do we see on the chart?
- The upper extreme
- The center
- The lower extreme
So far, so good.
Now let’s follow the price and learn a few important rules that belong to the rulebook of median lines/pitchforks, and with which you can make great trades.
Point 1
The price starts and is sold off down to…
Point 2
...and from there starts to rise again, up to…
Point 3
...which is the center. And here we have a rule that is very important and one that you need to be aware of in trading to be successful:
THE PRICE RETURNS TO THE CENTER IN ABOUT 80% OF ALL CASES
If we know this, then we can stay in a trade with confidence.
Point 4
The price climbed even higher but missed the upper extreme.
This is the “Hagopian Rule” (named after the man who discovered it).
And the rule goes: If the price does not reach the next line (upper extreme, lower extreme, or center), then the price will continue moving in the opposite direction from where it originally came.
Phew...that’s a mouthful ;-)
But yes, we actually see that the price does exactly this.
From point 4, where the price missed the upper extreme, the price not only goes back to the center but continues and almost reaches the lower extreme!
Now if that isn’t cool, I don’t know what is!
And what do we have at point 5?
A "HAGOPIAN"!
What did we just learn?
The price should go higher than the center line.
Does it do that?
Oh yes!
But wait!
Not only does the Hagopian Rule apply. Remember?
"The price returns to the center line in about 80% of the cases."
HA!
Interesting or interesting?
So, that’s it.
That’s enough for now.
Now follow the price yourself and always consider which rule applies and whether it’s being followed.
How exactly do you trade all this, and what are the setups?
...one step at a time.
Don’t miss the next lesson and follow me here on TradingView.
Wishing you lots of success and fun!
