Put sale on MSTR againMSTR is at the 50 ema on a weekly. 3 bear candles in a row. Nice pull back. BITCOIN has made all time highs and this hasn't even REMOTELY caught up yet. So you can use some of the premium to buy a few shares as well. :)
MSTR
MSTR US🌎MicroStrategy pioneered the use of Bitcoin as a corporate reserve asset. This strategy transformed MSTR from a traditional technology company into a unique hybrid: a provider of analytics solutions and a publicly traded instrument for indirect exposure to Bitcoin.
As of September 2025, the company's reserves totaled 636,505 BTC, equivalent to approximately $70 billion and representing approximately 2.6% of the total Bitcoin supply globally. This makes it the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin.
To accumulate this amount, the company employed an aggressive financial strategy, including issuing convertible debt and, more recently, issuing preferred shares.
mNAV Premium. One of the most important metrics for MSTR's valuation is mNAV (Multiple on Net Asset Value). It is calculated as the ratio of a company's market capitalization to the dollar value of Bitcoin on its balance sheet. A high mNAV means the market values the company significantly above the value of its Bitcoin reserves, allowing it to attract cheap capital for further acquisitions.
Operating revenue remains relatively stable at approximately $463 million.
Gross margin over the past 12 months has remained at approximately 70%.
Net income is highly volatile due to adjustments for Bitcoin price fluctuations. In 2023, the company reported a net income of $429.1 million, but for 2024, it recorded a loss of -$1.17 billion.
OCF -$53.7 million
Debt 8.16 B
cash 0.05 B
Debt can be repaid by selling a portion of the Bitcoin held on the balance sheet.
Bitcoin Makes New All Time Highs!Bitcoin dominance is being observed as its lifting the crypto market.
We just briefly saw BTC make new intra day all time highs, but its has yet to close on the daily chart above the previous all time high.
Short traders will be using the recent daily topping tail as a level to short against.
Long traders will be using the 7MA to buy the dip.
If we close above the daily topping tail it does suggest we are heading to 129k - 130k.
This would be one nasty double top of it turns out to be a liquidity sweep.
Crypto stocks tomorrow will likely gap up...watch for clues intra day. Will they hold their gains or see selling / reversals?
Microstrategy Is Still Pointing Higher For The Final 5th WaveMicrostrategy is a US business intelligence and software company, but it has become best known for its aggressive Bitcoin strategy. Under co-founder Michael Saylor, the company shifted from focusing mainly on software to also using Bitcoin as its primary treasury reserve asset.
Since 2020, MicroStrategy has been steadily buying Bitcoin, often using debt or equity raises to finance purchases. Their strategy is based on the belief that Bitcoin is superior to holding cash, as it can act as a long-term store of value against inflation and currency debasement.
From an Elliott wave perspective, we see Microstrategy nicely holding above trendline connected from the 2022 lows, so it's still unfolding a five-wave bullish impulse. Currently, it's consolidating within a bullish triangle pattern in wave (4), and once it's fully finished, we can expect another and maybe final push to the upside for wave (5) this year before a higher degree correction and bear market shows up next year.
We also want to mention that even Bitcoin can be finishing a 3-year bullish cycle, which can end this year, but there's still some space for more gains along with the Microstrategy to complete the 5th wave of an impulse.
Microstategy Vs Bitcoin Vs SP500Can you see the correlation? SP500 controls BTC for the most part and therefore microstrategy.
MicroStrategy ( NASDAQ:MSTR ) has become a key proxy for Bitcoin exposure in traditional markets. With nearly 600,000 BTC on its balance sheet, its stock’s performance strongly correlates with Bitcoin’s price action.
In 2025, Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 has climbed to 0.90, reflecting Bitcoin's growing role as a macroeconomic risk asset. MicroStrategy’s pending inclusion in the S&P 500 would force index funds to buy NASDAQ:MSTR shares, indirectly increasing institutional Bitcoin exposure through traditional equity portfolios.
This convergence shows how digital assets and major equity indices are increasingly intertwined, creating new pathways for Bitcoin adoption by institutional investors while tethering crypto markets closer to broader market dynamics.
#bitcoin #MSTR #SP500 #crypto #investing CBOE:MSTU AMEX:SPY
MSTR is still in a downward channelWhile it looks promising that MSTR is making some small gains, it's still in a very real downward channel. These type of gains are typically very short lived as many in this space are short term / profit takers. Technicals and soon UltraShort signals are confirm this, but would not bet the fam on any of this f&ckery!
$MSTR 6th Consecutive Week BELOW 50WMAStill kinda shocked at how terrible the NASDAQ:MSTR chart is.
Working on its 6th consecutive week below the 50WMA.
What a complete disaster @saylor
If PA doesn't start showing some real strength here off the .236 Fib then down to ~$235 she blow 🌬️
MSTR Wave II bottom?NASDAQ:MSTR is finally catching a bid from the triple support zone of the Fibonacci golden pocket, S1 pivot and High Volume Node.
It must overcome the daily 200EMA to add confidence to a reversal and wave II bottom being in.
Daily RSI has printed bullish divergence from oversold. Vanguard disclosed massive MSTR holdings ad the sentiment is awful online adding confluence to a bottom soon.
Wave III target is the R5 daily pivot $544, losing the support zone has a downside target of $232
Safe trading
MSTU chasing BTCThere is a nice delay on MSTR and MSTU proportional to BTC on smaller timeframes, allowing for nice entries and exits. It's already run 8% for me, but you might find a nice entry on MSTU when BTC pulls back. However, if you are long term bullish you might not want to wait. My first target is around $9 , at which point, I may just hold it for continuation depending on what BTC is doing at that time. Not financial advice, DYOR.
$MSTR to push above $400 again?NASDAQ:MSTR had it's 3rd touch off this blue trend line and usually when it does that, it forms a strong move in the other direction.
As long as this trend line holds, I think it's likely that we can see a move back above $400.
I've marked off key levels as resistance.
Took calls between $367.5 and $410.
MSTR - Here comes #5 at the CenterlineRemember when I said, I do it again Sam?
Nothing changed. Only the price in the consolidation at P4.
This will temporarily end at P5 (Yellow Count), where I'll take my profit. With a little pressure, price will even make it to the L-MLH.
Then I'll relax and watch, how the Chickens run around and create new opportunity. 🐔🐓
Don't be a Chicken, be the 🦊 Fox 🦊, be clever and have patience.
Happy new week all §8-)
Is Crypto Entering a Bear MarketToday crypto was exceptionally weak.
Bitcoin & Ether sold off sharply with Ethereum breaking critical downside levels.
The total crypto market cap is so close to triggering a head and shoulders pattern which could cause a massive waterfall selloff.
I'm expecting BTC to start gaining dominance compared to other crypto coins.
Profits on BTC & ether shorts we secured today.
MSTR....set-up not looking goodNASDAQ:MSTR is below 9, 50, 200SMA! That's about the clearest red flag you can see. There could be some volatility, but would be very careful as it crosses down 330, 300 and then possibly the next support line is further down as people dump hard. CBOE:MSTZ is a nice inverse play here! Best of luck
TEXAS INSTRUMENTS BACK TO 200 Why Texas Instruments (TXN) Could Rebound to $200 by 2026: Semiconductor Revival TXN's trading at ~$182 today (Sep 23, 2025), down ~20% from its $230 peak amid industrial softness and China tariffs, but with EPS surging 20%+ and analog demand roaring back, $200 (10% upside) is a slam-dunk floor by EOY 2026. Here's the bull reload:Revenue Ramp & Analog Dominance: Q2 '25 revenue +16% YoY to $4.4B, with industrial up 9% sequentially. Analysts eye $17.5B in '26 (9% YoY growth from $16B '25), fueled by 300mm wafer ramps and auto/enterprise recovery—hitting 50%+ gross margins for $200 valuation at 25x sales.
3 sources
EPS Explosion: Consensus EPS jumps to $6.44 in '26 (20% from $5.35 '25), undervalued at 28x forward P/E vs. 35x historical avg. At norm multiple, that's $226—clearing $200 easy, per WallStreetZen's $208.67 base case.
2 sources
CapEx Efficiency & Cash Flow Surge: $5B '25 spend drops to $2-5B '26 on optimized 1.2x capex/revenue, unlocking $8-12B free cash flow. Dividend hiked 4% to $1.42/share, with buybacks hedging volatility—StockScan's $248 avg '26 seals the rebound.
3 sources
Analyst Consensus Over $200: 25-51 firms avg $212-218 PT (Buy rating, high $298), with TipRanks at $212.83 on AI/data center tailwinds (13% earnings CAGR). Lows $125, but bulls dominate post-Q3 guidance.
MSTR - Trendline Support vs. Supply Cap!MSTR has been overall bullish on the daily, respecting a rising trendline since last year. Price is coiling right beneath the 330–350 supply band after multiple rejections.
This area is key 🔑. It overlaps prior supply and the rising trendline—clean confluence. If bulls defend the trendline and we see a clean daily close above 350, momentum could extend toward 400 first, then 470–520 inside the broader range 🚀.
If the trendline gives way, I’ll look for a deeper dip toward 260–240 demand before bulls try again. Until then, structure favors the upside while the line holds.
What’s your plan => buy strength above 350 or wait for a retest on the trendline first? 🤔
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly.
📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management.
Good luck! 🍀
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
$MSTR Falling Below the 50WMA in 2021 Bull Market Here's a look at last cycle where NASDAQ:MSTR trading under the 50WMA for several weeks led to the CRYPTOCAP:BTC bear market.
The reason why this was so significant last cycle is because they were responsible for such a large share of BTC buy pressure.
This cycle we have lots of other treasury companies, with many more to come, as well as ETFs of course, so I'm not as concerned with this PA.
$MSTR Must Close This Week Above the 50WMA Or Else...The MicroStrategy chart is the only top signal that is somewhat cause for concern at the current moment.
You can see NASDAQ:MSTR has closed the past several weeks below the 50WMA, which signaled the start of the bear market last cycle.
Having said that, it has had a bullish rally this week and is trading above the 50WMA once again.
MSTR must close the week above this level, otherwise the stock could be in for a much deeper correction, which could negatively affect CRYPTOCAP:BTC in October.
Where have you heard that October prediction before?
Coincidence? 🥸
MSTU, Microstrategy 2x leverage etfThis ETF is a great way to get degenerately long on Bitcoin. If Microstrategy doesn't wet your beak, this one might. We have some gaps in the chart that I didn't see before. They are not visible on the higher time frames. I have been long on call options for a few days and was considering taking profit but because they are long dated leaps I am holding tight for now. Not financial advice, DYOR.
Is $MSTR only game in town? Charts seem to disagree. NASDAQ:MSTR was the first CRYPTOCAP:BTC treasury company in Wall Street. It provided the leverage required on the price by CRYPTOCAP:BTC by borrowing against its balance sheet and buying $BTC. This has worked well for Strategy as it was the only game in the town. But not anymore. With new Crypto treasury company coming to the public every single day and CRYPTOCAP:BTC treasury companies in abundance the attractiveness of NASDAQ:MSTR is decreasing.
In the chart below we check NASDAQ:MSTR stock price vs BITSTAMP:BTCUSD and see that it peaked in Nov 2024. Since then, it is a series of lower highs and lower lows. The downward sloping channel also makes things complicated for the stock in the mid-term. Just on the weekly there is some support in the chart between 0.0026 and 0.0021. This also happens to be between the 0.5 and 0.618 Fib retracement levels.
My assessment is we can see some support at 0.618 Fib levels but make no mistake if Crypto bear market comes in 2026 – 2027 then the ratio chart can visit the all-time lows of 0.0007.
Verdict: NASDAQ:MSTR / $ BITSTAMP:BTCUSD is in clear downturn. It can find support at 0.618 Fib retracement level. Ratio can visit the cycle lows of 0.0007.
MSTX – Bulls Preparing a Reversal Move!MSTX has been overall bearish 📉, trading inside a well-defined descending channel.
Recently, price approached the $23 – $24 support area, where buyers started showing signs of activity. This zone could act as a potential turning point if momentum continues.
🟢 Support at $23 – $24: A critical level where bulls may step in.
📈 Upside targets: If buyers take over, the first resistance sits around $33, followed by $36 and higher toward $47 – $50.
As long as $23 support holds, bulls 🐂 could drive a short-term reversal that turns into a bigger recovery move.
Patience ⏳ is key — waiting for confirmation before entering can provide a higher-probability setup.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly.
📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
Put sale on MSTR! I would love to own more down here. The 50 ema on weekly is an AMAZING support. Bitcoin is above and has reclaimed the 100 sma on the daily. Btcusd is UP YTD and MSTR is down / flat. I believe a shifting / rebalalancing will occur. Long down here
a megaphone over 500A good signal right on time was Powell saying he would change his monetary policy (he said he would adjust it). Then Bitcoin and all the equities hurt by the recent drops resumed the solid uptrend we’ve been seeing. They came back to consolidate technical levels and give us new highs. In the case of MSTR, we can see the formation of a megaphone pattern that could take us above 500 USD.
Is Crypto About To Explode: New Highs? The total crypto market cap is retesting $4 trillion.
We are now looking much more bullish on a technical basis across Ethereum & Bitcoin.
We may have had a failed breakdown in the Total Crypto market cap, which could provide the additional liquidity for another surge.
Recapturing Key Daily 7 & 20 MA's is a very positive sign.
Although still being net short BTC & ETH - I now have breakeven stop losses in place.
Ethereum chart is looking very explosive like it could have a move to $5500
ETH recently has defended a massive volume shelf which is a very bullish sign.
Keep on your radar: BMNR / SBET / MSTR / COIN / MARA
