MNQ Daily Analysis and Replay - Monday December 1 2025 - part 3Really funky and tricky day for me. 1-1 / -$8
As a learning, beginner day trader I go through the market replay predefining what I am looking for to enter a trade and walk through my thoughts as I experience the market action bar by bar throughout the entire day to see how I handle various events and assess my execution.
This is for me and others to learn if you desire.
Multiple Time Frame Analysis
MNQ Daily Analysis and Replay - Monday December 1 2025 - part 2As a learning, beginner day trader I go through the market replay predefining what I am looking for to enter a trade and walk through my thoughts as I experience the market action bar by bar throughout the entire day to see how I handle various events and assess my execution.
This is for me and others to learn if you desire.
MNQ Daily Analysis and Replay - Monday December 1 2025 - part 1As a learning, beginner day trader I go through the market replay predefining what I am looking for to enter a trade and walk through my thoughts as I experience the market action bar by bar throughout the entire day to see how I handle various events and assess my execution.
This is for me and others to learn if you desire.
GBP/NZD – Daily Potential 900-Pip Short Setup GBP/NZD has been trading inside a broad daily range, repeatedly respecting both premium and discount extremes. Price is currently trading at the upper boundary of the range, inside a clear premium zone, where previous buying momentum has struggled to follow through.
This area represents:
Prior daily highs
Clear buy-side liquidity
Repeated failed continuation attempts
From a market-maker perspective, this is a high-probability area for distribution rather than expansion.
Liquidity Narrative
Buy-side liquidity above recent highs has either been partially or fully engineered
Price is now extended, with diminishing bullish displacement
Smart money typically seeks maximum short exposure at these levels
Once buy-side liquidity is absorbed, the natural next objective is a re-pricing into discount, targeting resting sell-side liquidity below.
SPX 0DTE trend/momentum following setup. Double and triple confirmation before taking 0DTE trades. I personally like 0DTE only. I know with my system on any trade 30%-35% is usually where the SELL signal appears and to size my positions accordingly. The BUY signals winners all varying but I tend to take some profit around 30%-35%.
I use a few different indicators to simultaneously confirm which direction to follow. In doing this, it avoids taking trades during froth or that end up immediately being rug pulled.
The indicators are:
1. Lux Algo- Smart Money Concepts. ( I only use the discount, premium, and equilibrium zones. As well as the weekly/monthly high and low enabled.)
2. Supertrend (set to my risk preferences)
3. Dynamic Swing Anchored VWAP- 200 day swing period and 30 day adaptive price tracking (Green line)
> The only periods this switched to a weekly sell was during 2001/2008
4. 200 SMA (White line)
*Using Heikin Ashi candles.
Those remain the same for all time frames and hey all need to correlate in order to enter a trade. Only then are trades solely in that direction placed. For instance:
If Supertrend and Dynamic Swing Anchored VWAP are a buy on the Weekly and 4-Hour charts, then it is CALLS ONLY and using the 5-minute chart to enter following the Supertrend signal. Above the 200SMA is even further confirmation.
If all of that were to stay the same but it was signaling to buy while in a PREMIUM zone, that cancels it out completely. Joy of missing out of the froth/rug pull. I take the time to mentally recharge. Wait for my system to align. That premium zone is usually spot on. While it might get extended on shorter time frames or sit there for a few weeks on the weekly chart, I have yet to see it be wrong. Following with a retrace back around the equilibrium zone or closest support.
It is helpful to see how overextended the market gets sometimes and while it might lag when encountering a median reversion play, it is pretty quick to confirm the trend/momentum and allow for a more calculated play. Adjusting position size slightly based on trend strength. It catches dip buys and rip sells upon confirmation.
Entries can be tweaked for longer expirations than 0DTE, but I choose not to hold anything over night.
Just thought I'd share going into the new year. Only thing I will be paying attention to is supply and demand. No more news at all. Shit is just aggravating and speculating leads to more losses for me than it does gains. Following trend/momentum + taking profit and cutting losses equals my account stability and growth.
Not financial advice- just some guy and his personal strategy.
Gold Context: Structural Resilience & The Inflation GauntletRelated Tickers: COMEX_MINI:MGCG2026, COMEX:GC1!, CAPITALCOM:DXY
Analysis
1. Market Context (Weekly Recap & Setup)
The second week of 2026 closed with a powerful display of Responsive Buying . After a healthy mid-week pullback, Gold (MGC) caught a bid and finished the week strong near 4518 .
• Structure: The Friday close created a solid base above previous value. We have successfully reclaimed the 4500 psychological level .
• The Nuance: Trading above 4500 shifts the auction to Initiative . The ATH is now the primary magnet.
2. Inventory & Nuance (Support Clusters)
• The 4500 Pivot: Line in the sand. Trade above confirms dip buyers are in control.
• Friday POC (4480): If 4500 fails, we test the Friday POC at 4480 . This is the "fairest price" from the Friday auction.
• GEX Profile: Sustained trade above 4500 could trigger a Gamma Squeeze toward 4550 .
3. Fundamental Catalyst (The Inflation Gauntlet)
The week of Jan 12–16 is packed with high-impact data.
• Tuesday, Jan 13: US CPI (20:30 WIB). Expect Headline 2.7%. High MoM = USD Tsunami.
• Wednesday, Jan 14: US PPI & Retail Sales . Weak sales = Gold rocket.
• Fed Speak: Multiple officials (Bostic, Kashkari, Williams) speaking. Clues for the Jan 28 meeting are critical.
Plan & Execution
• Bias: Bullish Initiative above 4500.
• Scenario A (ATH Run): Acceptance above 4500 targets 4550 and ATH.
• Scenario B (Rotation): Failure at 4500 targets 4480 . Look for Responsive Buying there.
• Invalidation: Sustained trade below 4420 kills the bull case for now.
Talk to you for the next update.
GBP/JPY Bullish Anticipating GBP/JPY to continue with bullish momentum, on Friday 1/9/2026 market closed with a bullish engulfing candle on the daily timeframe. Market also has resting liquidity sitting between the 212.000 -212.250 quarter points. Price could potentially retrace back down to the 211.250 QP and sweep the resting sell side liquidity before continue to push up for a new HH. Will be monitoring long entry between 211.408 - 211.323 where latest 1H order block sits.
Will await for LTF CHoCH to return bullish if there is a retrace to collect sell side liquidity at given buy zones.
This is not financial advice but just my analysis based on multi-timeframe market structure and confluences presented thus far and pending to be seen.
USDCAD: Where to look for short setupsHi traders and investors!
Daily timeframe.
The buyer has broken above the upper boundary of the daily sideways range. However, if we continue to follow the medium-term bearish scenario for USDCAD, with targets at 1.354 and then 1.34, formulated on the monthly timeframe (see the related post), the current structure still allows for seeking short positions.
Key sell zones, where both daily and monthly levels overlap:
1️⃣ Resistance zone 1.39248–1.39608
This is the first active zone on the daily timeframe where the seller may reassert control and form a sell setup.
2️⃣ Resistance zone 1.40148–1.40518
The second zone. Short setups are also possible here, provided there is a clear seller reaction and pattern formation.
3️⃣ Return into the daily sideways range:
The seller may prevent the buyer from developing the initiative, push the price back into the daily sideways range, and absorb the buyer candle that broke above the upper boundary.
In this case, the priority would still be to look for short positions. The daily range target at 1.373 would serve as the main reference.
At the same time, there is a high probability that the price may not reach this target, with the buyer potentially resuming activity around 1.3806 or near the 50% level of the trading range.
Scenario invalidation:
If the price firmly holds above the second range, serious questions arise about whether the seller is truly ready to push the price lower.
Profitable trades!
This analysis is based on the Initiative Analysis (IA) method.
POLUSDT Relief Bounce vs Bearish ContinuationPOLUSDT remains in a well-defined falling channel, with overall structure still favoring downside continuation. Price is currently staging a relief rally, pushing into a crucial supply zone that will act as a major decision area. A clear rejection from this zone would align with the prevailing bearish structure and favor continuation toward the highlighted downside targets. Conversely, a successful break and acceptance above supply could invalidate the bearish channel and trigger a stronger upside rally.
Reaction at this level will be key in determining the next directional move.
Zcash: Range market, seller initiative, conditions for buyingHi traders and investors!
On the daily timeframe, the market is in a sideways range, with the current initiative remaining on the seller’s side. Seller targets are located in the 301.14–299 area.
Previously, buyers attempted to start an upward move, but the 50% level of the trading range (524.02) prevented the price from holding above it. As a result, the buyer initiative was stopped, and the price moved into a decline.
Within the current structure, two key scenarios can be identified for searching for long positions.
Buying from the 476.76 level.
Longs should only be considered if the price holds above 476.76. This would signal a return of buyer activity and a potential continuation of movement within the range.
Buying after liquidity is collected below.
A move below the lower boundary of the range with liquidity taken below the two extremes 301 and 299, followed by a return of the price back into the range (above 299). In this case, conditions for searching for long positions will appear.
The target for longs in both scenarios is the 560 area.
Until one of these conditions is met, the priority remains on a wait-and-see approach.
Local short opportunities can be considered on the hourly timeframe.
Profitable trades!
This analysis is based on the Initiative Analysis (IA) method.
MNQ Blind Trade Replay - Monday January 5 2026 - part 1As a learning, beginner day trader I go through the market replay predefining what I am looking for to enter a trade and walk through my thoughts as I experience the market action bar by bar throughout the entire day to see how I handle various events and assess my execution.
This is for me and others to learn if you desire.
MNQ Blind Trade Replay - Friday January 9 2026 - part 2As a learning, beginner day trader I go through the market replay predefining what I am looking for to enter a trade and walk through my thoughts as I experience the market action bar by bar throughout the entire day to see how I handle various events and assess my execution.
This is for me and others to learn if you desire.
ICT, Supply and Demand, Price Action, Swing Failure
MNQ Blind Trade Replay - Friday January 9 2026 - part 1As a learning, beginner day trader I go through the market replay predefining what I am looking for to enter a trade and walk through my thoughts as I experience the market action bar by bar throughout the entire day to see how I handle various events and assess my execution.
This is for me and others to learn if you desire.
ICT, Supply and Demand, Price Action, Swing Failure
XTZ swing building standby to long Smart money were active below 50 , you guys look to buy any good dips lower into / around possibly early 50s as support structure is seen and needs to continue to build possibly, and, if feb retests region again ?! . so if our low has formed and if price doesn't look back try to target 1.40 for its first swing leg.
Actually l'm aready long, alot lower down. BUT buying here is nuts, be patient and get your discounted price.
MNQ Blind Trade Replay - Thursday January 8 2026 - part 2Day: 2-1 / +$257
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As a learning, beginner day trader I go through the market replay predefining what I am looking for to enter a trade and walk through my thoughts as I experience the market action bar by bar throughout the entire day to see how I handle various events and assess my execution.
This is for me and others to learn if you desire.
ICT, Supply and Demand, Price Action, Swing Failure
MNQ Blind Trade Replay - Thursday January 8 2026 - part 1As a learning, beginner day trader I go through the market replay predefining what I am looking for to enter a trade and walk through my thoughts as I experience the market action bar by bar throughout the entire day to see how I handle various events and assess my execution.
This is for me and others to learn if you desire.
ICT, Supply and Demand, Price Action, Swing Failure
MNQ Blind Trade Replay - Wednesday January 7 2026 - part 2day: 1-2 / -$75
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As a learning, beginner day trader I go through the market replay predefining what I am looking for to enter a trade and walk through my thoughts as I experience the market action bar by bar throughout the entire day to see how I handle various events and assess my execution.
This is for me and others to learn if you desire.
ICT, Supply and Demand, Price Action, Swing Failure
MNQ Blind Trade Replay - Wednesday January 7 2026 - part 1As a learning, beginner day trader I go through the market replay predefining what I am looking for to enter a trade and walk through my thoughts as I experience the market action bar by bar throughout the entire day to see how I handle various events and assess my execution.
This is for me and others to learn if you desire.
ICT, Supply and Demand, Price Action, Swing Failure
MNQ Blind Trade Replay - Tuesday January 6 2026 - part 2day: 3-1 / +$332
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As a learning, beginner day trader I go through the market replay predefining what I am looking for to enter a trade and walk through my thoughts as I experience the market action bar by bar throughout the entire day to see how I handle various events and assess my execution.
This is for me and others to learn if you desire.
ICT, Supply and Demand, Price Action, Swing Failure
MNQ Blind Trade Replay - Tuesday January 6 2026 - part 1As a learning, beginner day trader I go through the market replay predefining what I am looking for to enter a trade and walk through my thoughts as I experience the market action bar by bar throughout the entire day to see how I handle various events and assess my execution.
This is for me and others to learn if you desire.
ICT, Supply and Demand, Price Action, Swing Failure






















