XAUUSD (Gold) - Weekly OutlookPair: XAUUSD
Bias: Bullish
HTF Overview (4H):
Structure is mapped and refined, with momentum clearly showing toward the upside.
MTF (2H/1H/30M):
Watching for sell-side liquidity (SSL) to be taken. Once slashed and the OB is fully mitigated, confirmations for continuation higher will be in play.
LTF (30M/5M):
Waiting for HTF sync and full mitigation. Once a CHoCH is confirmed with a LH break, we’ll attend to the bullish leg.
Targets:
• TP1: 5M highs
• TP2: 30M highs (depending on delivery)
Mindset Note:
Gold moves aggressively — let the SSL clear and mitigation align before entering. The CHoCH keeps you disciplined inside the volatility.
Multiple Time Frame Analysis
NZDUSD - Weekly Outlook
Pair: NZDUSD
Bias: Bearish
HTF Overview (4H):
Structure is mapped and refined at the highest tier, showing bearish intent.
MTF (2H/1H/30M):
Anticipating continuation lower. Waiting for buy-side liquidity (BSL) to be taken. Once slashed and OB mitigated, price aligned with the bearish narrative.
LTF (30M/5M):
A CHoCH has already been confirmed with a break of the HL. Now waiting for a pullback into the bearish leg to attend further sells.
Targets:
• TP1: 5M lows
• TP2: 30M lows (depending on delivery)
Mindset Note:
NU often fakes bullish before continuing lower — let the pullback deliver before committing to the short side.
AUDUSD - Weekly OutlookPair: AUDUSD
Bias: Bullish
HTF Overview (4H):
Bullish structure is intact, with momentum visually clear and intent showing strong upside direction.
MTF (2H/1H/30M):
Price has been mapped and refined to precision. The OB zone has already been mitigated, so now we wait for confirmation of continuation.
LTF (30M/5M):
Looking for a CHoCH confirmation with a breach of the LH. Once that occurs, we’ll attend the bullish leg for long setups.
Targets:
• TP1: 5M highs
• TP2: 30M highs (depending on delivery)
Mindset Note:
AU rewards patience — let the CHoCH print before entering. A confirmed breach of structure keeps you aligned with the higher-timeframe bullish momentum.
EURJPY - Weekly OutlookPair: EURJPY
Bias: Bullish
HTF Overview (4H):
Bullish structure is mapped and refined, showing strong momentum toward the upside.
MTF (2H/1H/30M):
Refined structure suggests continuation in line with the dominant bullish trend. Waiting for courtyard liquidity (SSL) to be taken and slashed before further confirmation.
LTF (30M/5M):
Once price mitigates the refined zone, we’ll wait for a CHoCH to anticipate the buy leg. Until then, we remain patient.
Entry Zone:
Pending mitigation of refined OB and CHoCH confirmation.
Targets:
• TP1: 5M highs
• TP2: 30M highs (depending on market delivery)
Mindset Note:
EURJPY can fake early — let the SSL get slashed before looking for your CHoCH confirmation. Patience secures the cleaner entry.
GBPJPY - Weekly OutlookPair: GBPJPY
Bias: Bullish
HTF Overview (4H):
Bullish structure is mapped and refined, showing strong upward momentum. Price is moving cleanly in line with the trend.
MTF (2H/1H/30M):
Structure is refined and awaiting a deeper courtyard slash. Looking for mitigation of the OB sitting below before continuation higher.
LTF (30M/5M):
Confirmation will come once the lower high (LH) is breached. Expecting a pullback setup from there, which we’ll attend to. Until then, patience is key.
Entry Zone:
Refined OB once mitigation aligns with LTF confirmations.
Targets:
• TP1: 5M highs
• TP2: 30M highs (depending on market delivery)
Mindset Note:
GJ delivers volatility — let price pull back into your courtyard slash before committing. Structure will tell the story.
GBPUSD - Weekly OutlookPair: GBPUSD
Bias: Bullish
HTF Overview (4H):
Structure is refined and mapped, with mitigation of the OB zone below. Since then, price has respected bullish movement across lower scales. ⚖️
MTF (2H/1H/30M):
Structure has been mapped and previous sell-side liquidity was taken. Following the OB mitigation, price continued bullish. Now watching to see if that mitigation level holds.
LTF (30M/5M):
Looking for a CHoCH confirmation inside refined zones. Once confirmed, we’ll aim toward the highs.
Targets:
• TP1: 5M highs
• TP2: 30M highs (depending on market delivery)
Mindset Note:
Let the confirmation come to you — GU loves to sweep and shake weak hands before committing to trend continuation.
XPDUSD: Strong Confluence + MomentumBias: Long
Trade Type: Reversal
Trend: Range
Area of Value: Yearly Open + Quarter Open + 6 Hit Support
Momentum: 1D MACD Histogram Crossing to High Tide.
Entry: 1,102.37
Exits: Stop Loss @ 1,063.95 ; Take Profit @ 1,217.82
Analysis
Fact 1: XPDUSD is in a Range between 908.50 and 1,245.35 since 2023.
Fact 2: XPDUSD movements between the ranges are relatively fast where a power move toward the resistance @ 1245.35 is also met with a power move reversal to the support @ 908.50
Fact 3: XPDUSD last move towards the resistance broke the resistance, and the reversal towards the support is a slow crawling move instead of a fast power move.
Fact 4: XPDUSD slowed down and seemed to bounce on the Area of Value that is full of confluence, paired with the timing of the momentum of MACD Histogram on 1D.
Conclusion:
XPDUSD broke its Resistance Level and instead of reversing down further to the support with a power move the bears seemed to have stopped at the Area of Value (1,102.37) confluenced by Yearly and Quarterly Opens + a strong 6 Hit support level, paired with a MACD Histogram crossing to High Tide. I believe that XPDUSD will bounce off the Area of Value and atleast reach 1,217.82 before resistance takes place.
Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 3.00
EURUSD - Weekly OutlookPair: EURUSD
Bias: Bullish
HTF Overview (4H):
Price is maintaining clean bullish structure, breaking previous weekly highs. Watching closely to see if price holds this momentum.
MTF (2H/1H/30M):
Refined structure + liquidity buildup noted. Eyeing the sell-side liquidity (SSL) to be taken before confirming continuation.
LTF (30M/5M):
Will wait for confirmation once price trades into refined zones. Looking for inducement → mitigation → 5M structural confirmation.
Entry Zone:
Pending refinement once SSL is swept and HTF OB aligns with LTF confirmation.
Targets:
• TP1: 5M highs
• TP2: 30M highs (depending on market delivery)
Mindset Note:
Patience is key — waiting for that SSL sweep keeps you out of fake momentum. Let structure guide the entry, not the impulse.
EURUSD: 1.19 Hit — Sellers Step In?Hi traders and investors!
This analysis is based on the Initiative Analysis concept (IA).
Buy patterns formed in the 1.1835–1.1830 zone, and then price reached 1.1900, as anticipated in the previous review. Got lucky on this one (see previous post).
Let’s take a closer look—this is an interesting setup.
Weekly chart
The last three buyer bars showed elevated volume but no result — the closes are inside the wicks.
Daily chart
The buyer broke above the initiative’s upper boundary at 1.18299 with a wide-spread, high-volume candle, but the seller pushed price back below 1.18299 and engulfed the buyer’s candle.
A sideways range is likely forming; a seller initiative is projected with a target at 1.15278.
There’s a sell signal on the chart — very interesting.
The Dollar Index, by the way, is turning in a mirror image.
Wishing you profitable trades!
This is how a well aligned market look's like I am short
I am short because this is all I see from weekly to 4h bearishness
Confluences:
- monthly OB rejected the price;
- weekly tock liquidity and made a bearish choch;
- daily tock liquidity and made a bearish choch;
- 4h swing market structure just changed to bearish;
- there is a daily OB and also a weekly one;
- liquidity is built right before order blocks
Entry:
the entry should happen only after a pull back in the weekly ob or daily, and a clear bearish choch on 1h or 4h timeframe
Long trade
Trade 2
Type: Buyside trade 2
Date: Thurs 18th Sept 25
Session: NY Session AM
Entry: 1.34973
Profit level: 1.35273 (+0.20%) → 26.1 pips
Stop level: 1.34947 (-0.05%) → 2.6 pips
RR: 2.1
Narrative:
Following the earlier stop-out, a second entry was executed after confirmation of bullish structure. The market engineered liquidity below intra-day lows before running back into a bullish order block aligned with the 15m FVG. Entry was timed to coincide with the NY AM open drive
Long trade
Pair: TONUSDT
Direction: Buyside trade
Date/Session: Fri 19th Sept 2025, NY Session AM
Timeframe: 1H
🔹 Trade Details
Entry: 3.0937
Profit Level: 3.3803 (+9.09%)
Stop Level: 3.0406 (-1.20%)
Risk-Reward (RR): 2.58
🔹 Technical Structure
Liquidity:
Previous lows swept near 3.10 (stop run/liquidity grab).
Buyside liquidity sitting above the 3.35–3.38 range (target zone).
FVGs / Inefficiencies:
Imbalances are visible on the move down, providing room for the price to retrace higher.
Market Structure:
Higher-timeframe bullish structure intact.
3.10 forms a key demand area — rejection confirms accumulation.
🔹 Indicators
Volume: Accumulation volume noted at sweep lows.
MAs (yellow/blue): Price testing short-term moving averages, potential crossover for bullish momentum and buyside trade idea.
Long trade
Trade Journal Entry
Pair: PENGUUSDT
Direction: Buyside trade
Date/Session: Fri 19th Sept 2025, 11:20 AM — NY Session AM
Timeframe: 5-Min
🔹 Trade Details
Entry: 0.035543
Profit Level: 0.038764 (+9.06%)
Stop Level: 0.032722 (-0.90%)
Risk-Reward (RR): 10.03
🔹 Technical Structure
Liquidity / Sweep:
Price swept NY session lows and tapped into demand.
Accumulation structure forming with compression into support.
Order Blocks / Demand Zone:
Clear demand zone just below entry (0.0327–0.0330), protecting stop.
5min TF Entry
Market Structure:
Downtrend exhaustion is visible.
Transition into buyside intent — breakout of micro range anticipated.
🔹 Indicators
Volume: Increasing on-demand tests, supporting absorption narrative.
Moving Averages: Price reclaiming EMAs, first bullish alignment forming.
FVGs: Multiple inefficiencies above 0.0360–0.0387 provide upside draw.
🔹 Narrative / Trade Rationale
Entry is taken after liquidity sweep + accumulation inside the demand zone.
Strong RR 10.03 due to tight stop placement.
Target aligned with imbalance fill and prior supply zone near 0.0387.
200% print for SLERF token? - September 2025A straight forward setup this time. After seven months of trading inside a sideways consolidation area price action and RSI resistance breakouts print. The first resistance is 200% above, which is expected to print by the market top.
Worth getting out bed for? Sure.
But leave the PJs on, this market will send you back to sleep just as quick.
Ww
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. I'm not a financial advisor. I am, however, an award-winning human being. So there's that.
Bulls Defend 3630 zone – Is the Reversal Already Starting?In my yesterday’s analysis, I argued that Gold could extend its correction towards 3620 and even 3570 if the move deepened.
Indeed, during the day, price reached a new local low at 3628 before reversing sharply higher.
For several sessions now, I have been pointing out the risk of a correction. But the main message remained clear: this is only a correction within a much larger bullish trend.
So the key question today is: Is the correction over?
📊 Chart observations:
• The structure is corrective, with overlapping price action.
• After the Fed-triggered drop to 3635, price dipped again to 3628, and once more last night to 3632. Each of these dips has been quickly bought back, showing strong bull interest around the 3630 zone.
• Despite this, we are still under the falling trendline, which means caution is required.
⚖️ Trading stance:
This type of price action prompted me to close my short trades with around +550 pips profit. For now, I am adopting a wait-and-see approach but with a bullish bias in mind.
🟢 Two bullish scenarios I’m working with:
1. A fresh dip towards 3620 could provide a buying opportunity, as I would expect bulls to step in again.
2. If the price stabilizes above 3665–3670, I will consider the correction complete and start looking for long entries on strength.
At this stage, patience is key. Let the market show its hand, but the evidence suggests that the bullish trend is preparing for another leg higher. 🚀
600% print for Aavegotchi (GHST) NFT Gaming protocol?The above 11 day chart (don’t ask) tells us someone somewhere bought this token at $3.85 in March of 2024 before watching a 92% collapse in price action. The marketplace is now gripped by fear. Are sellers today correct, get out now before the remaining -8% to zero strikes? It certainly appears that way.
Support and resistance
Price action has confirmed support on past resistances. Both legacy and the recent corrective resistance. This is also true of RSI.
The trend
For the first time in 21 months price action has printed a higher low.
Divergence
Price action prints positive divergence (USD and Bitcoin pairs) equivalent to that of August 2023 before an strong move printed.
Hook reversal pattern
A textbook hook reversal pattern has printed. You’ll find those patterns at market bottoms. The psychology of why they print is an interesting subject in its own right:
Candle by candle starting from ‘1st candle’
1) The bears stepped in, pushing price down closing the week lower than it began with significant pressure, hence red candle.
2) The bears stepped in again and closed price action lower than the week began, but two things have changed from the previous week:
a) The wick is lower, indicating sellers are weakening.
b) The body of the candle is thinner. This tells that despite all the selling pressure of the bears, the bulls matched it.
At this point you start to see something significant. A very thin body with a long wick above. This candle is called a ‘morning star’ and is confirmed with a ‘green candle’ in the following trading session, which we have. The psychology here is the bulls entered deep into the bears territory with not as much resistance as the previous session.
4) The first green candle. A ‘indecision candle’. The bears are confirmed ‘exhausted’, bulls closed price action higher than the previous trading session. The height of the wick is important here. Higher is stronger for future impulsive moves.
Finally we have arrive at the stage that attracts the most interest, the selling pressure is soaked up by the bulls, with future sell orders not only offered by those who bought at the pivot. This is why you often only see an “up only” move in price action afterwards.
Conclusions
So, what have we learned? Basically, everyone panicked, sold their tokens like they were on fire and now we’re all sitting here pretending to be experts because a candle looks a bit different. *Ooooh, hook reversal pattern!* Yeah, alright mate, it’s a green line going up after a red one went down. Calm down.
The truth is: the bears are knackered, the bulls are sniffing around again, and if history repeats, we might actually see this thing shoot up. Or it won’t. That’s the game, innit? People want certainty but it’s crypto, it’s like betting on which one of your drunk uncles will fall down first at Christmas dinner. Odds are high, outcomes are unpredictable.
So yeah, maybe it’s a bottom. Maybe it’s the start of a big run. Or maybe we’ll all be here in two weeks going, “Remember when we thought that was bullish? Ha!” , either way, don’t bet your nan’s house on it.
Ww
Short trade
15min TF overview
Trade Journal Entry
Pair: EURGBP
Type: Sellside trade
Date: Thu 18th Sept 2025
Session: LND Session AM (8:00 am)
Timeframe: 15m
Trade Parameters
Entry: 0.86776
Profit Level (TP): 0.86669 (+0.12%)
Stop Level (SL): 0.86848 (-0.08%)
Risk–Reward (RR): 1.49
Narrative
Market performed a Tokyo high sweep, followed by a ChoCH (Change of Character) at the London open.
Sell entry triggered at 0.86776, coinciding with the premium pricing zone after liquidity run.
Stop Loss positioned just above high sweep (0.86848), guarding against continuation.
Take Profit aimed at intraday liquidity pocket (0.86669), aligned with discount FVG fill.
Session timing (LND AM) adds further confluence, as liquidity grab typically precedes directional move.
Entry 5min TF
XAU/USD 19 September 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis/bias remains the same as analysis dated 18 September 2025.
As mentioned in analysis dated 04 September 2025, with respect to alternative scenario, price could potentially continue higher, is how price printed, price continued its bullish trajectory printing all-time-highs.
Price previously, and has now for the second time, printed a bearish CHoCH which is the first indication, but not confirmation, of bearish pullback phase initiation, however, due to the insignificant nature of the pullback, particularly relative to previous price action, I will apply discretion and not classify previous iBOS, I also have marked this in red.
Price has continued with it's bullish trajectory, subsequently printing a bearish CHoCH. We are now trading within an established range, however, I shall continue to monitor price action with respect to depth of pullback relative to recent price action.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 supply zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,703,240.
Alternative scenario: Price could potentially print higher-highs.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis/bias remains the same as analysis dated 18 September 2025.
Price has continued with its bullish trajectory, printing all-time-highs.
Previous price action printed a bearish CHoCH, subsequently printing higher, however, due to the insignificant depth of the pullback, relative to recent price action, I shall again apply discretion and not classify this an an internal high. This marked this in red.
Price has since continued bullish, printing a bearish CHoCH. We are now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price has reacted from an M15 demand zone, within discount of 50% EQ. Price to target weak internal high priced at 3,703. 240
Alternative scenario: All HTF's require a corrective move, price has since failed to target and close above weak internal high therefore, and in order to confirm HTF bearish pullback phase, price could target strong internal low, priced at 3,612.240.
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
USD/CHF - Trade Setup🔎 Bias
Short-term bullish continuation after BOS confirmation.
📊 Technical Breakdown
1H Structure: Market broke structure (BOS) after sweeping liquidity below 0.7890.
Demand Zone : 0.7885 – 0.7900 aligns with 71% fib retracement and MSS reversal.
Liquidity : Sell-side cleared, price reclaiming higher order flow.
Targeting : Re-test of previous range highs + imbalance fill above 0.8030.
🎯 Entry / Exit
Entry zone: 0.7890 – 0.7900
Targets:
TP1: 0.7960
TP2: 0.8030
Invalidation : Below 0.7870
⚖️ Risk Management
SL below 0.7870
Risk 1–2% only, scaling partials at TP1
📌 Outlook
Clean structure shift, demand respected, and liquidity sweep complete. If bulls maintain control, upside continuation toward 0.8030 is on the cards.
Bias : Bullish continuation 📈