XAU/USD 26 January 2026 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
As per analysis dated 22 January where I mentioned price could potentially continue bullish is how price printed.
CHoCH positioning has again been brought closer to current price action and is denoted with a blue dotted line.
Price is trading within an internal low and fractal high.
Intraday expectation:
Price to print bearish CHoCH to indicate bullish pullback phase initiation. Thereafter price to react at either discount of 50% internal EQ, or H4 supply zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 5,111.510.
Alternative scenario: Price could potentially continue bullish.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s renewed easing cycle, alongside a weaker U.S. dollar and persistent geopolitical tensions, continues to drive volatility in the gold market.
Traders should remain cautious and adjust risk management strategies to navigate sharp price swings.
Additionally, gold pricing is highly sensitive to U.S. policy under President Trump, where tariff measures, fiscal uncertainty, and shifting geopolitical strategy amplify market repricing risks and reinforce safe‑haven demand.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price has printed as per analysis dated 23 January 2026 by printing a bullish iBOS.
Price has printed a bearish CHoCH, with price subsequently continuing to print higher, however, due to the very insignificant depth of pullback, I will apply discretion and not classify previous iBOS, this has been marked in red.
Price is currently trading within an internal low and fractal high.
Intraday expectation:
Price to print bearish CHoCH, to indicate, but not confirm bearish pullback phase initiation. Price to then trade down to either M15 or H4 demand zone, or discount of 50% internal EQ before targeting weak internal high, priced at 5,111,510.
Alternative scenario: Price could potentially print a bearish iBOS as all HTF's require pullback.
Note:
Gold continues to exhibit elevated volatility as markets digest the Federal Reserve’s ongoing dovish tilt and persistent global geopolitical tensions.
With uncertainty remaining a dominant theme across global risk assets, traders should prioritise disciplined risk management, as abrupt price swings and liquidity pockets may become increasingly common.
Furthermore, recent tariff announcements from President Trump, particularly those directed at China, have added another layer of instability to the macro landscape. These policy developments have the potential to intensify market turbulence, heighten risk‑off flows, and trigger sharp intraday reversals or whipsaw‑like behaviour in gold.
M15 Chart:
Multiple Time Frame Analysis
Brent Oil M30 HTF Discount Reaction and Bullish Continuation📝 Description
BLACKBULL:BRENT crude oil has completed a corrective pullback after a strong impulsive rally and is now stabilizing above a key short-term demand zone. Price has reacted cleanly from the SSL and lower boundary of the recent range, suggesting buyers are defending this area and preparing for another leg higher toward premium liquidity.
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📈 Signal / Analysis
Primary Bias: Bullish while price holds above the recent swing low and SSL
Preferred Setup:
• Entry: 65.015
• Stop Loss: Below 64.730
• TP1: 65.25
• TP2: 65.45
• TP3: 65.73
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🎯 ICT & SMC Notes
• Sell-side liquidity sweep followed by bullish displacement
• Reaction from intraday support and SSL confirms demand
• No bearish break of structure after the pullback
• Upside targets aligned with prior highs and premium liquidity
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🧩 Summary
As long as BLACKBULL:BRENT holds above the 64.75–64.90 support zone, the bullish continuation scenario remains favored. The current pullback appears corrective, with expectations of a rotation higher toward recent highs and upper liquidity pools.
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🌍 Fundamental Notes / Sentiment
Oil sentiment remains constructive amid steady demand expectations and the absence of strong bearish catalysts. Short-term pullbacks into defended demand zones are likely to be viewed as buying opportunities rather than trend reversals.
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⚠️ Risk Disclosure
Trading involves substantial risk and may result in capital loss. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always apply proper risk management, predefined stop-loss levels, and disciplined position sizing aligned with your trading plan.
USDJPY — No Trade Today | Regime Invalid = Capital PreservationToday is a textbook example of why permission > prediction.
My system didn’t place a single trade — by design.
Here’s what the regime framework detected:
• 4H trend bias → invalid (no directional edge)
• Volatility → expanding (unstable conditions)
• Both engines → BLOCKED
• Result → Flat
When volatility expands without structure, continuation and mean-reversion both degrade.
That’s the exact environment where most traders get chopped.
So instead of forcing setups…
The system does nothing.
No signal is a decision.
Flat is a position.
Capital preserved > random trades.
What would unlock trades?
For continuation (E1):
• 4H EMA alignment
• slope agreement
• volatility expansion with structure
For reversal (E3):
• contraction first
• then controlled extremes
Until then → no permission → no trade.
Most losses don’t come from bad entries.
They come from trading when there is no statistical edge.
Today the correct trade was discipline.
Regime first. Always.
— RegimeWorks
FUSIONMARKETS:USDJPY
XRPUSDT M30 HTF Discount Reaction and Bullish Continuation Setup📝 Description
BINANCE:XRPUSDT has completed a sharp corrective sell-off and is now stabilizing above a higher-timeframe discount zone. Price is currently reacting from a 30-minute Fair Value Gap after defending the BPR area, indicating potential accumulation and readiness for a bullish continuation toward higher liquidity pools.
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📈 Signal / Analysis
Primary Bias: Bullish while price holds above the 30m FVG and recent swing low
Preferred Setup:
• Entry: 1.8819
• Stop Loss: Below 1.872
• TP1: 1.8947
• TP2: 1.9099
• TP3: 1.9325
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🎯 ICT & SMC Notes
• Sell-side liquidity sweep followed by strong bullish displacement
• Price reacting from a validated 30m FVG
• BPR acting as support, no bearish BOS after the rebound
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🧩 Summary
CRYPTOCAP:XRP shows clear signs of demand stepping in after a liquidity-driven sell-off. As long as price holds above the 30-minute FVG and maintains higher lows, the bullish continuation scenario remains favored with targets aligned toward prior intraday highs and premium liquidity.
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🌍 Fundamental Notes / Sentiment
With USD weakness, market conditions shift toward risk-on. In this environment, crypto assets benefit from improved risk appetite, placing XRP in a favorable risk-on context, where upside potential increases as long as dollar pressure persists.
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⚠️ Risk Disclosure
Trading involves substantial risk and may result in capital loss. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always apply proper risk management, predefined stop-loss levels, and disciplined position sizing aligned with your trading plan.
USDCHF- BearishFrom my perspective, higher-timeframe structure has flipped, with sellers taking control. Price has shown a clear shift in market character, breaking the prior major higher low and establishing downside intent.
From here, I’m watching for a strong HTF lower high to form, which would keep price aligned toward continuation to the lows. Until that develops, I’m simply reading the tape and tracking behavior.
Nothing forced.
Patience is key. Tracking is the edge. Let’s go.
EURUSD - BullishPrice may pause into distribution, or momentum may continue pressing toward higher highs. Either way, I let the market lead and show its hand — my job is alignment, not prediction.
At the moment, I’m monitoring key sweep areas that could provide fuel for continuation toward midterm and higher-timeframe objectives. Until that behavior confirms, it’s patience and tracking only.
Patience is key. Tracking is the edge. Let’s go.
EURGBP - BullishI’m flowing with price as it continues higher, reading behavior and tracking its footsteps. As price approaches higher highs, we’re seeing higher lows form, signaling a structure shift within the broader HTF bullish framework.
Momentum remains aligned with trend, so for now I’m simply waiting and tracking delivery.
Patience is key. Tracking is the edge.
CADJPY - BullishPrice is currently in a calm speculation zone as I observe the tape. We’re operating within a strong accumulation demand area, and from here I’m simply tracking price behavior and its footprints.
If price chooses to move forward, I’ll continue to monitor how it delivers. Until then, nothing is forced.
Patience is key. Tracking is the edge. Let’s go.
MGC Daily Analysis & Replay - Monday January 12 2026 part 1Day: 2-1-2 / +$123
(all 1 MGC trades)
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As a learning, beginner day trader I go through the market replay predefining what I am looking for to enter a trade and walk through my thoughts as I experience the market action bar by bar throughout the entire day to see how I handle various events and assess my execution.
This is for me and others to learn if you desire.
HAL Short setup.
Spotted a high-probability short setup on Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd based on multi-timeframe confluence:
- 🔴 Supply Zone aligned with Daily EMA 50 and Weekly EMA 50 – strong resistance cluster.
- 🔄 Entry on retracement into the zone, post breakdown of prior pivot low.
- 🟠 Stop Loss placed at 15% DATR above the zone for volatility buffer.
- 🎯 Target set at 1:3 RR, respecting structure and momentum.
- 📉 EMA 21 < EMA 50 confirms short bias
The zone is placed with high probability.
The trade is valid till the time price retraces to to level and moves down.
The trade remains invalid if price moves down first to form lower high and lower low and then retraces back in sessions to come.
GBPJPY - BullishPrice will do what it wants — I don’t control it, I track it. That’s the edge. As long as structure remains intact, I flow with price behavior.
Current momentum is aggressive, but the blue order block below represents a stronger accumulation area if price seeks deeper liquidity to fuel continuation. For now, I’m observing how price reacts around the current IDM and engineered liquidity. If we hold, that gives information. If we dip, that also gives information.
Nothing forced. Just tracking.
Patience is key. Tracking is the edge.
MGC Daily Analysis & Replay - Monday January 12 2026 part 1As a learning, beginner day trader I go through the market replay predefining what I am looking for to enter a trade and walk through my thoughts as I experience the market action bar by bar throughout the entire day to see how I handle various events and assess my execution.
This is for me and others to learn if you desire.
AUDJPY - BullishPrice has delivered a clean distribution back into accumulation. This is where tracking becomes the edge — once you understand where price is operating, reading behavior becomes second nature.
If a full midterm liquidity sweep occurs within accumulation, I’ll then look for a structure shift during the corrective phase to align with the next delivery. Until that condition is met, it’s strictly observation and tracking.
Nothing rushed.
Patience is key. Tracking is the edge. Let’s go.
USDJPY - BullishPrice is aggressively expanding out of the prior distribution phase, clearing fast hands along the way. Internal liquidity, IDM, and external liquidity have been systematically taken, signaling strong intent and alignment with the higher-timeframe draw.
This expansion appears to be fueled by liquidity clearance, with price pressing toward the higher-timeframe liquidity pool. Once price fully mitigates the HTF point of interest within the accumulation territory, I’ll shift focus to how we correct and re-deliver from that area.
Until then, I’m simply tracking behavior and allowing price to complete its delivery.
Nothing forced.
Patience is key. Tracking is the edge. Let’s go.
GBPUSD - BullishAs price continues to press toward mid-term and higher-timeframe highs, I’m simply observing how momentum is being delivered into those objectives. As long as bullish structure and displacement remain intact, the draw on liquidity is still higher.
If price pauses or looks for a breather, I’d expect any pullback to be corrective in nature — potentially distributing back into prior accumulation zones rather than signaling a full shift in bias. Until price shows otherwise, the expectation remains continuation.
My focus is on how price reacts once it mitigates key areas of interest. From there, I’ll look for confirmation to participate in alignment with the higher-timeframe direction, targeting the highs as the primary objective.
Nothing forced, nothing rushed.
Patience is key. Tracking is the edge.
BTC: There is an H1 pattern, but daily volume is against buyingHi traders and investors!
The seller defended the weekly level at 90,128. We can see three buyer candle wicks there that failed to break and hold above this level. After that, yesterday a seller candle formed on the daily timeframe with solid volume. More details are covered in the previous review.
On the hourly timeframe, a false breakout pattern of the lower boundary of the range has formed. However, considering long positions here is extremely risky.
The reason is that the daily seller candle formed on increased volume, with the main volume accumulated in the upper part of the candle. Buying against such a signal carries a high level of risk.
Given the overall context, the priority scenario is to look for short setups, targeting the daily seller target at 83,822.
This analysis is based on the Initiative Analysis (IA) method.
MNQ Daily Analysis & Replay - Friday July 11 2025 part 2week of hell. today, 1-2 / -$75
made $63 this week with a million BE trades
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As a learning, beginner day trader I go through the market replay predefining what I am looking for to enter a trade and walk through my thoughts as I experience the market action bar by bar throughout the entire day to see how I handle various events and assess my execution.
This is for me and others to learn if you desire.
MNQ Daily Analysis & Replay - Friday July 11 2025 part 1As a learning, beginner day trader I go through the market replay predefining what I am looking for to enter a trade and walk through my thoughts as I experience the market action bar by bar throughout the entire day to see how I handle various events and assess my execution.
This is for me and others to learn if you desire.
DXY: the seller remains in controlHi traders and investors!
The U.S. Dollar Index has reached the seller’s weekly and daily targets — 97.048 and 96.767, respectively. At this stage, a period of consolidation and possibly a local bounce is likely.
However, in the medium term, the initiative remains with the seller.
More details can be found in my long-term analysis.
Profitable trades!
This analysis is based on the Initiative Analysis (IA) method.
MNQ Daily Analysis & Replay - Thursday July 10 2025 part 2Fugliest week of them all. 1-0-2 / +$84
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As a learning, beginner day trader I go through the market replay predefining what I am looking for to enter a trade and walk through my thoughts as I experience the market action bar by bar throughout the entire day to see how I handle various events and assess my execution.
This is for me and others to learn if you desire.
MNQ Daily Analysis & Replay - Thursday July 10 2025 part 1As a learning, beginner day trader I go through the market replay predefining what I am looking for to enter a trade and walk through my thoughts as I experience the market action bar by bar throughout the entire day to see how I handle various events and assess my execution.
This is for me and others to learn if you desire.
USDCAD: Seller reaction from the first resistance zoneA seller reaction followed from the first resistance zone at 1.39248–1.39608 (the previous review).
On January 20, the seller pushed the price back into the daily sideways range and reached the first target within the range at 1.373.
The next target is the lower boundary of the range at 1.36426.
Profitable trades!
This analysis is based on the Initiative Analysis (IA) method.
MNQ Daily Analysis & Replay - Wednesday July 9 2025PA week from hell. 0-0-1 / $0
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As a learning, beginner day trader I go through the market replay predefining what I am looking for to enter a trade and walk through my thoughts as I experience the market action bar by bar throughout the entire day to see how I handle various events and assess my execution.
This is for me and others to learn if you desire.






















