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RBNZ stuck between growth & inflation - what’s next for Kiwi?New Zealand’s inflation rate is no longer falling. The annual inflation rate rose to 3%, hitting the top of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s target band and marking a 15-month high, up from 2.7% previously. Because this increase was in line with forecasts, it is unlikely to stop the RBNZ from cutting rates further. Markets expect the central bank to lower the Official Cash Rate once more next month, its final decision of the year, bringing it to 2.25%. However, there is a risk that lower rates could overstimulate inflation. That tension is possibly reflected in the New Zealand dollar. The NZD has possibly found support as traders weighed the possibility that this might be the last in the current cycle. On the chart, NZDUSD has bounced from the 0.5650 area, its lowest since early 2024, before recovering toward 0.5740. If inflation remains sticky and the RBNZ turns more cautious, the kiwi could strengthen back toward 0.5850. But if economic data continue to deteriorate and rate cuts proceed as planned, renewed weakness toward 0.5600 or lower remains a possibility.
by BlackBull Markets
50 bps RBNZ risk: NZD/USD targets and key levels The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is widely expected to lower its interest rate at its 8 October meeting, though the scale of easing remains in debate. Market pricing currently leans toward a 25 basis-point reduction, with a roughly a 55.5% probability of that outcome and 44.5% odds of a larger cut. Scenario Analysis If the RBNZ cuts by 25 bps: • As this is the base case, markets might only see modest downside pressure on NZD/USD. The pair could drift toward 0.5750 and potentially 0.5700 if the Bank signals further easing ahead. If the RBNZ cuts by 50 bps: • A larger-than-expected cut could accelerate NZD selling, particularly if accompanied by a dovish tone. In this scenario, NZD/USD could break below 0.5750 support and test 0.5600 in the days following the decision. If the RBNZ holds rates steady: • A surprise hold could trigger a short-covering rally, pushing the pair back above 0.5900 and potentially retesting the 0.6000 area as traders reprice the path of policy easing.
by BlackBull Markets
Kiwi outlook: key zone for Kiwi bears This week’s Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) policy decision will help shape trading ranges for the next quarter. Kiwibank’s economists expect the RBNZ to deliver a 25-basis point cut, lowering the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 3.0%. According to Kiwibank, another reduction is on the cards, though the pace of easing may not be aggressive enough to provide the stimulus the economy needs. They argue that a more supportive stance is required to stimulate the lagging economy, suggesting 2.5% would be closer to the right level. A dovish tone from RBNZ Assistant Governor Christian Hawkesby could reinforce this view, and the Kiwi currency could fall towards 58c, giving a bit of relief to exporters.
by BlackBull Markets
NZDUSD Pullback in Play – Head & Shoulders Signals More DownsideNZDUSD ( OANDA:NZDUSD ) is currently trading near the Resistance zone($0.612-$0.605) and has also managed to break the Support zone($0.604-$0.602) . We consider the Support zone as the neckline of the Head and Shoulders Pattern . In terms of classic technical analysis , NZDUSD has managed to form a Head and Shoulders Pattern . I expect NZDUSD to decline towards the Support zone($0.5968-$0.5946) after completing the pullback . Note: Stop Loss(SL): $0.6062 Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. New Zealand Dollar/ U.S. Dollar Analyze (NZDUSD), 1-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Short
by pejman_zwin
12
NZD/USD 2 moves away from wiping out June’s rallyThe RBNZ is widely expected to hold the Official Cash Rate at 3.25% this Wednesday. NZIER’s Shadow Board advises against a cut, noting the economy remains weak but inflation pressures are mixed. Markets see just a 10–15% chance of a cut this week but still price for further easing by October. NZD/USD has pulled back sharply from 0.6100, with price now possibly consolidating around 0.6000. This area coincides with a key support-turned-resistance level that capped price action in mid-June. If the pair breaks below 0.5980, the next support sits near 0.5935 – a level that triggered a strong bounce on June 21. A break below that could open the way toward 0.5900 and 0.5860. On the upside, if the 0.6000 handle holds, short-term resistance lies at 0.6030, with stronger pressure at 0.6065.
by BlackBull Markets
Long EURNZD – Seasonal, Fundamentals & Technical ConfluenceWe are entering a long position on EURNZD, capitalizing on a powerful confluence of: Seasonal EUR strength + NZD weakness (April 10 – May 15) A clear bullish market structure (CHoCH, HH/HL) A clean Fibonacci retracement entry at 0.5 Strong macro divergence, with NZD exogenous conditions deteriorating Macro & Seasonal Context EUR enters a strong seasonal uptrend from April 10 to end of month NZD shows seasonal weakness from April 15 onward NZD’s exogenous model score worsened to -12 in April While NZD LEI and endo improved, it remains structurally weak Timing Best execution: on pullback to 1.9373 zone, ideally between April 10–15, aligned with seasonal entry window.
Long
by wajahatarif
Kiwibank Lowers Kiwi ForecastThe New Zealand dollar (NZD/USD) has slipped below its 25-day exponential moving average (EMA) and could potentially test the 50-day EMA next. But, can sellers maintain the momentum and push further into bearish territory? Kiwibank is betting on more downside due to faster and deeper rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). However, their initial bearish outlook has softened somewhat. "In our previous FX Tactical, we anticipated the Kiwi heading towards the 0.5700 mark. But given its reluctance to trade down to that level, we've adjusted our expectations. While we still believe the Kiwi should be lower, it's clear the 0.5700 target is less likely. At this point, 0.5900 seems a more reasonable level," the bank stated. Further complicating the outlook is China’s influence. Like the Australian dollar, the Kiwi can find support from economic developments in China. Talks of a potential stimulus package from Beijing had initially buoyed market sentiment, but UBS remains unimpressed. The investment bank noted that the scale of China's recent measures falls short of previous stimulus efforts, which historically triggered strong market rallies. Economists cited by The Wall Street Journal share this view, pointing out that borrowing costs are already low, yet demand for credit remains sluggish. Consumer confidence, dragged down by concerns over jobs and the ongoing property market meltdown, remains near historic lows.
by BlackBull Markets