NIFTY still bearish targeting the 1W MA100 at 22250.The Nifty 50 Index (NIFTY) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern, with its latest Lower High being exactly on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). This caused the rejection that initiated the current Bearish Leg.
As we've already completed a 1D Death Cross, the last two times we saw a similar Channel Down was during December 2022 - March 2023 and October 2021 - June 2022. Both of those patterns hit the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) before forming a bottom and rebound.
The March 2023 in fact, was priced exactly on the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. With their 1D RSI sequences also identical, we expect the bearish trend to continue for around another 30 days before the Channel Down bottoms on the 1W MA100 - 0.5 Fib cluster. Our Target is 22250.
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Nifty50
ShortIn my previous article on January 27th, I mentioned that we could either see a drop from the current levels or experience a rally around the 24,000 mark followed by a decline. Be prepared for a potential drop towards the 21,900 level as the first target, with further downside possible.
Make sure to invest wisely.
Nifty's Battle Between Bears and Bulls & S&P 500 resistance test#Nifty50 wrapped up the week at 23,560, marking a 80-point increase from the previous week's close. It reached a high of 23,807 and a low of 23,222. As predicted last week, Nifty traded within the range of 24,000-22,950, and looking ahead, I anticipate the index will continue moving within the range of 24,000-23,050 next week.
Currently, the monthly and weekly timeframes are both bearish, while the daily timeframe shows a slight bullish bias. This indicates that the bears remain in control, and they will likely seize every bounce as an opportunity to initiate short positions. I still believe that the 22,400/22,500 level is critical, as it presents an opportunity for the bulls to establish a base and potentially push Nifty higher.
The BJP's victory in the Delhi assembly elections could have a positive impact on the market come Monday, offering a window to offload positions and create fresh shorts. My focus will remain on stocks that are either building a strong base or demonstrating resilience in this otherwise negative market environment. These hidden gems, or 'dark horses,' could emerge as the true winners in the near future.
On the global front, the S&P 500 closed at 6,025, a mere 14 points down from the previous week's close, with a high of 6,101 and a low of 5,923. Over the past three weeks, the S&P 500 bulls have repeatedly attempted to break the strong resistance level at 6,100, but they’ve failed to maintain momentum above it. A decisive close above 6,100 is now critical for the rally to gain steam and target levels at 6,142, 6,225, and 6,376. If this resistance holds, the bears are ready to pounce, and we could see a test of support levels around 5,850—about 3% lower than the current level.
It’s a crucial battle ahead, and while I’m rooting for the bulls, my focus is on the bears. Let’s see who comes out on top!
Can Nifty overcome Mother, Father and the Trendline resistances?With the results in Delhi elections that will suit the market fervor can Nifty break the triple whammy of Mother, Father and Trendline resistances which are not allowing it to fly? The answer to the question can be yes. But what is important is if Nifty can sustain the opening that it might get and hold on to the levels? This will depend again on FII activity. FII as we know are on the selling side continuously. Also there is an upcoming New Income Tax bill to be tabled. Investors will wait and see the action taken on the LTCG and STCG taxes on the income. No bad news can be a good news with respect to this aspect. After the income tax relief received and RBI rate cut.
Supports for Nifty remain at: 23435, 23177 and 22967. If the major support at 22967 is broken there can be a free fall in the market till the levels of 22758, 22159 or even lower as depicted in the chart.
Resistances for Nifty remain at: 22619 (Father Line, 200 days EMA), 22658 (Mother line, 50 days EMA), 22838 (Major trend line resistance). If 22838 is crossed and we get a closing above it we can see the levels of 24084, 24223 and 24482. For levels above 24482 we will have to get a weekly closing above the same first.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
Levels to watch out I’ve been long on the market around the 960 mark and plan to hold for the long term, expecting it to eventually surpass previous highs in the coming months.
The RBI’s recent decision to cut interest rates for the first time in 5 years signals a move to stimulate economic activity. It seems they’ve waited too long, though, and it may have been a bit late.
Interest rate cuts are typically aimed at driving economic growth, especially during periods of slow growth or potential recession. While such moves are often positive for stocks in the short term—due to the stimulation of the economy, cheaper borrowing costs, and more investment in riskier assets—there’s still uncertainty about where the markets will head, especially as we may be on the brink of a major economic slowdown.
At the moment, I am short on Nifty and cautious about adding long positions to Nifty 50 stocks. I’m building my portfolio gradually rather than going all in at this point.
As for IndusInd, it has undergone a solid correction, making it a good opportunity to accumulate at these levels. The market could potentially dip further, reaching levels around 789 or 545, making it a good time to build positions.
Two important Resistances to conquer for Nifty ahead. There are 2 important resistances for Nifty ahead which need to be conquered for the Bull run that started post budget to sustain. These 2 resistances are at 23630 and 23809. Today Nifty made a good comeback from lows of the day which was near 23556 to close at 23603. The resistnace near 23809 acted again as Nifty plummeted from the level of 23773 to fall to 23556. The trend line shown in the chart acted as support for Nifty to come back into the game. There are 3 important events coming up later. RBI Policy where market is expecting a rate cur. Delhi election results and finally Income tax bill to be tabled in the parliament. Market is fearing a little bit and hoping that there is no bad news related to LTCG or STCG etc. in the bill.
Nifty supports remain at: 23556, 23498 and 23484 (Mother and Father line of the daily chart). If this line is broken we can see Nifty falling to old support system of 23376 and 23222. Closing below 23222 can bring the Bears back into the game and calling the shots again.
Nifty Resistances remain at: 23630 and 23809. If these to resistances are conquered we can a strong up move towards 24K level with resistances at 23991, 24197 and 24344 level. Above 24344 level Bulls will come out of ICU and start taking control of the system.
Shadow of the candle right now is absolutely neutral. Tomorrows closing will be very important a closing above 23630 will be good but closing above 23809 will be great. Similarly a closing below 23556 will make the market weak. Nicely balanced right now.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
Nifty tried to consolidate today after the BO yesterday. Nifty did well to consolidate and end above 50 and 200 days EMA today Nifty closed at 23696 and the Mother and Father lines are at 23664 and 23620 respectively. These Two lines will continue to act as support for the coming days and sessions. Nifty faced a very stiff resistance today as expected near 23800. It will not be easy to cross this resistance. This was made clear by us in earlier messages. Exit poll results, followed by RBI rate cut followed by actual Delhi state election results in favour of market expectation can lead to a positive sentiment build up and these levels can be taken down and Nifty can even regain 24K levels in the coming time.
Nifty supports remain at: 23664 (Mother line), 23620 (Father Line), 23346 and 23222. Below 23222 weekly closing Nifty will become very bearish.
Nifty Resistances remain at: 23809, 23883, 23984 24108 and finally 24197. Above 24197 Weekly closing Nifty will become very bullish.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
BAJAJHFL Short term IdeaBAJAJHFL is at breakout level. It has tested the TL 2 times and now the swing broke.
People who are looking for low risk and High reward can look this.
This is not a call, please analyze and consult your financial advisor before investing.
Entry can be at Spot(115.29) or safe players can enter above 120, your Risk will be 110(Stoploss) and Targets T1 - 145, T2 - 180.
Estimated Holding time - 3 to 6 months, maximum - 1 year
Superb closing above Mother and Father Line Resistance. We had a very good closing today by Nifty at 23739 which is above Mother and Father line of resistance but there is a trendline resistance now at 23745 which Nifty was not able to cross today after briefly hovering above it as it made a high of 23762.
The next resistances in line for Nifty if it is able to cross 23745 swiftly will be at 23883 and 24108. Closing above 24108 can bring the Bulls back into the game and take us to the next resistances at 24281, 24596, 24898 and finally 25K+ levels.
Supports for Nifty are at 23663 (Mother Line support), 23619 (Father line support), 23421 and 23222. Below 23222 Nifty will become weak again and in such a scenario Nifty can fall to below 23K levels of 22976, 22797 or even 22316.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
Global Markets crack fearing Trump Tariff plans.Global markets cracked downwards today fearing the tariff imposed by the new Government in US. The action has strengthened already strong USD$ as US is trying to flex it's financial muscle. How long this strength in USD can sustain is a question as it is looking far away from support having given an ATH against Rupee. The Tariffs as of now have been imposed by US on Canada, Mexico and China but other countries can also receive a similar treatment including India. So that space has to be watched continuously.
Under such global perfect storm Nifty actually did pretty well to close at 23361 after making a low of 23222 which is a remarkable 139 points recovery. This might be due to the Budget announcements. There is also a talk that RBI might go for a rate cut. This can further give some strength of Financial and Banking and some other stocks. Global factors and FII selling are the main issues along with strength of Dollar that are hampering the Indian market. The results so far have been below par compared YonY but better than some market experts expectation. So even on that front it is a mixed bag.
Supports for Nifty are at: 23222, 23136 and 22976. If we get a closing below 22976 Nifty can fall in a total Bear territory and fall further to 22797, 22316 or further down.
Resistances for Nifty are at: 23381, 23555, 23618 (Father Line Resistance), 23660 is the (Mother line Resistance). After we get a weekly closing above 23660 we can think of getting back to the more bullish territory of 23745, 23883 and finally 24K+ zone. Shadow of the candle right now seems to be neutral to negative.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
#nifty50 Week ahead, 3-7th Feb 2025The Nifty ended the week at 23,482, up nearly 400 points from last Friday’s close, with a high of 23,632 and a low of 22,786. With Saturday's budget announcement and tax break news, all eyes will be on Monday, which could be a game-changer. The new tax slabs will bring relief to many in the middle class, but institutional investors are carefully assessing its impact on the broader market. Monday’s closing could give us a clearer picture of how they’re positioning themselves, making it a critical day to watch.
Looking ahead, I anticipate Nifty may trade within the range of 24,000 to 22,950 next week. However, the weekly and monthly charts are still in a bearish phase, and until we see a shift toward a bullish trend on at least a weekly timeframe, the best approach remains to "sell on rallies."
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 closed at 6,040, about 60 points lower than last week. It tried to break through the strong resistance at 6,100 but couldn’t manage it. The weekly chart suggests a potential "W" pattern, but for that to play out, the index may need to drop and test support levels of 5,880-5,850. If that happens, it could trigger selling pressure on global markets, including India.
It’s going to be a crucial week ahead—prepare for a potentially volatile market environment!
Superb weekly closing with Bullish Engulfing candle by Nifty. Superb weekly closing at 23508 with a closing above 50 Weeks EMA (Mother line) which was at 23423. This came along with Bullish Engulfing candle by Nifty now all eyes on Nirmalaji (Indian FM) to deliver a great budget and turnaround this bullish candle into a proper Bull rally. Now the only thing that can stop us and fizzle the rally would be a dank budget.
Supports for Nifty remain at 23136 and 22838. Below 22838 the rally can fizzle out into the bear territory again. In such a scenario Bears can drag Nifty further down to 22316, 21869. Below 21869 major support will be near 200 Weeks EMA at 19578. Historical resistances for Nifty based on previous Peaks and Valleys can be at 23883 (Trend line resistance), 24281 and 24904. After getting a closing above 24904 market can think of regaining 25K or even 26K levels. RSI is entering the Bull Zone as well with closing this week at 45.60. RSI Resistance is at 47.49 that is something to look at.
The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
Nifty trying to stage a comeback but important hurdles coming upNifty is trying to stage a comeback but there are important hurdles coming up 23328 and 23883 has a lot of obstacles for the rising Nifty based on the historical data. (Historical meaning the data which is At Least 3 months or older).
The important resistances for Nifty here are 23328 (June 24 peak) followed by Father line resistance (200 day's EMA on daily chart at 23623.). The mother line resistance (50 day's EMA) which is at 23687. After we get a closing above this zone the next resistance will be near 23883. Once we get a closing above 23883 we can think of gaining back 24K levels.
Supports for Nifty now remain at 22838, 22316 and 21869 which is near the lows of June 4th 2024. Shadow of the candle is currently positive but near the resistances mentioned earlier there can be pressure on Nifty.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. This is a spot Nifty analysis based on Historical data as mentioned earlier. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
Bulls Make a major counter attack to Pull Nifty upwards. Today the Bulls fought back very well and against all odds were able to close Nifty much above Mother line of hourly chart. Nifty closed at 23163 and the Mother line support now is at 23108. If Bulls are able to keep Nifty aflot above this level and drive it higher they will have potential to make a come back into the game which was dominated one-sidedly by Bears since a long time. Not only Nifty we saw Mid and Small cap index also fight back today. The negative observation is that there is a trendline resistance just near today's high as you can see in the chart at 23183. So closing much above that level tomorrow will be really helpful.
The supports for Nifty now remain at: 23108 (Mother Line Major support), 23032, 22919, 22776 (Major trend line support), 22465 and 22100 will be the channel Bottom support.
The Resistances for Nifty now will be at: 23183 (Major Trend line resistance), 23354, 23465 (Major Father line Resistance of 200 hours EMA), 23542, 23726, 23892 (Major Channel top resistance). If channel top resistance is broken in the current rally Bulls will be back in the game and can drag the index further upwards towards 24060 and 24226. Above 24226 monthly closing there is Nifty landing again in Pure Bull territory.
Good come back by bulls. Shadow of the candle now is neutral but it can become positive if we get a closing above 23183 tomorrow.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. I or my clients might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
Nifty tried unsuccessfully to close above Mid-channel resistanceNifty today tried unsuccessfully to close above mid-channel resistance but failed. After making a high of 23137 it again closed below 23K at 22957 not able to hold on to 23K+ levels. There was positive movement in Banks, Finance, Auto and Services. The laggards were Pharma, Mid-cap, Small cap, Public sector, IT, Metal and FMCG.
Low of the day was 22857 if this level hold tomorrow and if Nifty can Push itself above 23137 we can see movement further northwards to 23357 or even 23542. Real momentum will build if we get a closing above Father line at 23632 and Mother line above 23727. Till that time we can see wild swings on either sides.
Supports for Nifty remain at 22848 and 22763. Below 22763 we may see Nifty stumbling towards 22465, 22175 or even 21886 levels. It is still hanging by the thread. Shadow of the candle right now is positive to neutral.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. I or my clients might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
ShortThis stock has been significantly overvalued for an extended period and seems to be due for a correction. Let’s take a closer look at what might unfold in the coming days:
If the stock breaks below the critical level of 1995, we could see a swift move down towards 1589. This level is an important support zone, but it doesn’t mean the downward move will stop there. Investors should be cautious, as there might be some relief around 1725, which could act as a temporary support point. However, this relief would likely be short-lived. Given the overall overvaluation and current market conditions, any bounce off 1725 would likely be weak and won't signal a sustainable recovery.
The key trigger for further downside would be a breach and close below 1995. Once this level is convincingly broken, the stock could face a significant downtrend. In such a case, investors should look to exit their positions, but with a well-placed stop-loss above 2175 to manage risk. That stop should offer protection in case of any unexpected rally or short-term bounce.
Looking further ahead, a deeper correction towards 1509 appears to be the more plausible scenario, considering the current overvaluation and market sentiment. This deeper pullback could be a key buying opportunity for those who are patient and have a longer-term perspective. Once the stock reaches these levels, it would present a more attractive risk-to-reward ratio for accumulation, as it could set the stage for a recovery that eventually takes the stock to new highs.
Short
I’ve been shorting most of the Nifty 50 index stocks ever since it breached 24,750, holding onto my position with strategic exits in case the market rallies, though I see that as highly unlikely at this point. As long as 24,750 holds we can support this bearish view.
At this stage, we’re either heading back to around 24,200 or possibly correcting further to a minimum target of 20,200 over the next few months. Even if we see a short-term rally, it’s likely to be brief. The more plausible scenario is the market eventually heading towards 20,200.
It’s amusing to watch the media, retail investors, and brokers get so excited about a 200-point rally. What they fail to realize is that this optimism is largely driven by retail traders chasing the market without considering the underlying risks. They often end up getting trapped at highs or lows, stuck in positions when a pullback or rally inevitably happens.
I’ve always stressed the importance of proper risk management in my articles. Growing wealth is not just about making big bets—it’s about sustainable growth. Brokers, however, don’t necessarily share this focus. Their main interest lies in collecting commissions, regardless of whether the market goes up or down. The same can be said for exchanges and even the government, all of whom profit from the trading activity regardless of the retail investor’s success or failure.
Investors need to understand that chasing short-term moves and focusing solely on commission-driven narratives can lead to long-term losses. Wealth building is more about having the right strategy, managing risk, and not getting swayed by market noise.
Nifty spirals down yet again in full flow. Where is the bottom?As Nifty Spirals down in a full flow investors have following questions in mind:
Q1 Where is the bottom?
Q2 How much more pain left in the system?
Q3 When will the recovery start?
Answer to all the questions is interlinked.
Answer 1) Predicting exact top and exact bottom is very difficult but with MMI at 23.71 it is clear that extreme fear has gripped investors. Those who invest during extreme fear zone make profit in a long run that is very clear cut long term scenario. FII have withdrawn enmasse in search of greener pastures. HNI investors and retail investors are worried that FII is going away. Also they feel the fear of increased taxation while budget 2025 is about to arrive supports for Nifty which can act as bottom are at 22740 (near lower bandwidth of bollinger band), 22465, 22175 and 21886 (Channel bottom support). Any of these levels as of now can act as support for Nifty.
Answer 2) As the levels suggest short covering can happen anytime alter this week as market looks oversold. Current RSI 28.66 is and RSI support is at 22. So we can expect a technical bounce upto 23K or 23.2K any time soon. Only if the Nifty closes 23550 we can see a momentum build up which can take Nifty further up towards 24K or 24.2K as of now.
Answer 3) Short term recovery can start very soon probably later this week. Long term recovery and march towards 25K or 25K+ will take some time and might start in end of Q1 or mid Q2 2025. As per the charts.
Indecisive candle Nifty looking for a Breakout on either side. Like last week this week to Nifty has remained indecisive could not go up with the momentum and could not break the critical support on the down side. Such things happen generally when Nifty is in search of bottom or it has formed the bottom.
If Nifty has already formed the bottom and support at 22935 holds we can see an up side where the resistances will be at 23270, 23419 (Mother line on Weekly charts, very strong resistance), 23806 and 24203.
If Nifty dives down searching for a bottom we have supports at 22935, 21886 (Channel bottom support) and finally 21232 major support which is also pretty close to the lows of June 2024 Election result day lows which was at 21281. things hanging by the thread and shadow of the candle is Neutral to negative. Hoping for a short covering / Technical bounce anytime next week. Everything depends on the budget now. If the budget is good we can see a comeback rally in Nifty if not we will see it forming a bottom in mid or end February 2025.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. I or my clients might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
Short The current market price of the stock at 5,490, is significantly inflated compared to its estimated intrinsic value of approximately 1,555, based on the current EPS of 14.43 and the P/E ratio of 107.84. This stark discrepancy suggests that the stock is trading well above its fundamental worth, implying that it may be overvalued.
Such a valuation could be driven by overly optimistic market sentiment or speculative buying, especially given that we are in an environment where market prices have reached unprecedented levels not seen in recent history. If the market corrects, as many analysts anticipate, the stock price could face a significant downward adjustment, leading to what some are predicting could be a bloodbath in the near future.
This scenario highlights the disconnect between the stock’s price and its true intrinsic value, suggesting that the market may be overpricing future growth prospects, or investors are too focused on short-term factors rather than the company’s actual earnings performance and financial health.
NIFTY 50 Previous fall with correlation to the RSIHi All,
Just my observation 😀
It seems when ever nifty has been overbought it has fallen/corrected sharply ranging in the months between 9-15 months. Also the RSI have also cool down a lot faster than the previous falls. So hoping for a recovery from March 2025 onwards.
Thank You
Good closing by Nifty signaling chances of revival. We got a closing by Nifty today above 23200 levels at 23205 which has confirmed the chances of Revival. Two minor and 2 major hurdles remain in front of it right now before we can confirm that bear run is over. The minor resistance in front of Nifty now are 23270 and 23424.
These are not strong resistances however any resistance can not be taken lightly when FII sell is selling like there is no tomorrow. after we get a closing above 23424 there will be father and Mother line resistances at 23652 and 23825. These 2 will be major resistances. Post we get a closing above 23825, 24000 and 24203 will me major hurdles. Only a closing above 24203 will bring bulls out of ICU. So we have a long way to go before complete revival. Today we have gained an important additional support near 23090.
Supports on the lower side for Nifty will be at 22935 (This is a strong trend line support.) Below 22935 the supports is at 22425. Tomorrow will be an important day. If we get a positive closing tomorrow the momentum can be carried forward into the next week.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. I or my clients might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
Good closing today by Nifty but Bull market not yet in sight. Good recovery by Nifty today closing above the mid channel line but there is long way to go before Bulls are back in business. We do not know if today's bounce was a dead cat Technical bounce after the rout yesterday.
The resistances that Nifty now faces are at 23176, 23424, 23657 (Father line resistance), 23850 (Mother line resistance), 24518 and finally channel top resistance near 24799. Above 24800 closing bulls can come back in business and take Nifty North wards to 25299+ levels.
Supports for Nifty remain at 22935, 22465, 21866 and finally 21232. Below 22935 is a pure Bear territory. We are terribly close to the bear territory. Shadow of the candle is neutral.
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