Macro Monday 19 Total Non-Farm Payrolls: Pre-Recession Observations What is Non-Farm Payroll? The nonfarm payroll measures the number of workers in the U.S. includes 80% of US workers. The figures exclude farm workers (Nonfarm) and workers in several other job classifications such as military and non-profit employees. Data on nonfarm payrolls is collected by...
Hi Traders! Ahead of the NFP announcement later, EURUSD is trading near its weekly high in anticipation of possible weak jobs data coming out of the US. Price Action 📊 The market's price action is currently bearish, largely due to the double-top pattern. The market recently had price rejections at the weekly high of 1.06750. That being said, we are currently...
In May and August I made posts saying "Macro conditions don't foretell a market crash soon." Time has passed and it's all pretty much the same. BUT!! Current world events might change everything. And see my other posts re likely imminent drops in the market. This post is just about macro. Once again, some points here looking back to 2001. (2020 was an irregular...
The euro is flat on Friday, after sustaining sharp losses a day earlier. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0844. There wasn't much to cheer about after today's Manufacturing PMI reports for Germany and the eurozone. Although both PMIs improved slightly in August, business activity continues to decline in the manufacturing sector. The Eurozone PMI...
Focus is growing on the upcoming nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report. In August, it's expected that there will be about 170,000 new jobs (compared to 187,000 in July). The days leading up to this report have had some not-so-great job-related data, like the JOLTS and ADP reports. This has heightened expectations that the NFP might show fewer jobs than expected. The US...
The 4-hour chart on the EUR/USD displays a possible bearish bias, but there are some indications of consolidation after the small rebound observed on Friday. At present, the price is lingering around the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). To improve its bullish outlook, it would be necessary for the Euro to hit 1.0840 and for other technical indicators (that have...
The Canadian dollar is drifting in the European session, trading at 1.3378. It has been a good week for the Canadian currency, which is up about 1% against its US cousin. We can expect some significant movement from USD/CAD in the North American session, as both Canada and the US release the June employment reports. The US labour market has been surprisingly...
The Japanese yen is showing strong gains on Thursday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 143.82, down 0.57%. The Federal Reserve has been aggressively tightening rates in order to curb inflation but took a pause in June after ten consecutive hikes. At the meeting, the Fed said that a pause would provide members with time to assess the impact of the...
The Swiss franc has moved higher on Thursday and is trading at 0.9068 in the North American session, down 0.41%. On Wednesday, the Swiss franc fell as low as 0.9147, its lowest level in two months. The Swiss National Bank meets on June 22nd and SNB President Jordan had a warning today for the markets. Jordan said that the central bank would not allow inflation...
USD/JPY has posted gains in the North American session after a solid showing from US nonfarm payrolls. Japan's real wages continued to fall, while household spending rebounded. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 132.24, up 0.36% on the day. In the US, nonfarm payrolls was within expectations, easing concerns that the US labour market is in...
It could be a busy day for the US dollar, with the release of nonfarm payrolls later today. Canada posted a strong employment report on Thursday, as employment change and unemployment were better than expected. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3501, up 0.07%. All eyes are on US nonfarm payrolls, with a consensus estimate of 240,000 for March,...
Gold is down to support before the release of the non-farm payrolls data. Earlier the price hit a new high at 2032, after which a technical pullback to the support of the price channel is forming. What to expect from the price today? The forex market may be slow today as many countries meet "Good Friday" but also, we have the NFP data release today. The...
The New Zealand dollar is almost unchanged ahead of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) rate decision on Wednesday (New Zealand time). The US releases JOLTS Job Openings. NZD/USD is trading quietly at the 0.63 line in the European session. The RBNZ is widely expected to raise rates by 25 basis points, which would bring the benchmark cash rate to 5.0%. Over...
The Japanese yen is trading at 1.36.83 in the European session, down 0.52%. USD/JPY fell 0.90% on Thursday but has recovered much of those losses today. Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda didn't fire any final shots at his final meeting today. The BoJ maintained interest rates at -0.1%, where they have been pegged since 2016, and didn't make any changes to its to...
The Canadian dollar is coming off a relatively quiet week but that could change as there a host of key releases this week. Ivey PMI kicks things off later today, followed by the Bank of Canada rate decision on Wednesday and the February employment report on Friday. Canada's Ivey PMI recorded a massive rebound in January, climbing from 33.4 all the way to 60.1...
The euro continues to lose ground and has started the week in negative territory. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0783, down 0.19%. Earlier in the day, the euro has now fallen to its lowest level since Jan. 23. The euro sent market participants on a roller-coaster ride last week. The Fed's rate increase pushed the euro higher by 1.16%, but the...
Further to the prior video that is linked below, which was a pre-data analysis and forecasting of the moves we have seen over the events, this video in particular goes over the gold and how it was executed.
Following Powell's flip in script, the market is asymmetric around NFP. A strong number may not budge the doves while an indication of softness will reinforce it - however ... Keep eye on the ISM services report as well as this saw a stark miss in December (49.6 vs 55.0 estimated). Another poor miss could sew the seeds of a hard landing in the US, forcing a...