NVIDIA overvalued. Not a buy before $110 at least.NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) has been trading within a 10-year Channel Up that displays some very distinct characteristics. It's Legs (both Bullish and Bearish) are highly cyclical, holding a strong symmetry among them.
And based on the Sine Waves, we can see that following the 2018 and 2022 Cycle Tops, it is now 2026's turn to give a Cycle peak and start a long-term correction (Bearish Leg), practically a Bear Cycle.
We can technically claim that since the October 2025 High, the market turned sideways on a wide range consolidation and that has been the end of the 2023-2025 Bull Cycle (Bullish Leg). The 1M RSI pattern confirms that as after it has historically made a second touch on the Lower Highs Zone (red circles), the market didn't give much room for the price to rise further.
Basically the current Double Top situation resembles the September 2018 High. The 1M RSI is exactly on the overbought limit (70.00) similar to both October 2018 and January 2022 (blue circles). What followed on both occasions was a strong drop to the 42.00 where it bottomed and NVIDIA turned into a long-term Buy Opportunity again.
Based on the previous Bearish Legs, the price bottomed (coinciding with the 1M RSI bottom), took place either extremely close (Dec 2018) or marginally below (Oct 2022) the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). The same stands for the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level.
Right now the 1W MA200 is considerably above the 0.382 Fib, so we expect that to be tested at least before the market bottoms. Based on its current trajectory, contact at $110 is very likely and that's our long-term Target. Notice that still, that would be considerably above both the 0.382 Fib and a -57.77% drop, which was the 2018 % decline (lower than the -68.77% of 2022).
It has to be made clear though at this point that if the 1M RSI touches the 42.00 Support first (before $110.00), then NVIDIA turns into a long-term buy opportunity, as mentioned, regardless of the price at the time.
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Nvidiasignals
NVIDIA On the brink of a strong correction towards $110.NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) hit last month its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) but despite marginally breaking below it, the price managed to close the 1M candle above it, thus so far supporting the market.
This is a critical Support trend-line as every time NVIDIA broke and closed below it within its 11-year Channel Up, the price dropped further, touching the Higher Lows trend-line shown on the chart.
That has been particularly evident during Bear Cycles (technically the Bearish Legs of the Channel Up), which also hit and bottomed on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). The 2022 Bear Cycle even bottomed marginally below the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level (blue) from the previous bottom, while the 2018 Bear Cycle just above it.
Notice that all Bear Cycles started after an aggressive 1M RSI Bearish Divergence was completed, which is what we have right now.
So a break below the 1W MA50 would practically confirm a new Bear Cycle and the minimum target would be the 1W MA200 and the Higher Lows trend-line around $110. This time the 0.382 Fib is considerably below it.
An additional powerful Buy Signal for the long-term, is the 1M RSI 42.00 Support. Both previous Bear Cycles bottomed exactly on it (September 2022 and December 2018 respectively).
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NVIDIA Double test on the 1W MA200 after 10 months targets $115.NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) hit today again its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), just a week after the March 02 test that held it as Support. This Double test is the first time the market hits the 1W MA200 in 10 months (since May 13 2025).
This is a critical moment for NVIDIA as a break and candle closing below it, would naturally suggest that more selling is underway. That break-out served as bearish extension confirmation for the price during its previous major correction a year earlier (Jan - March 2025). The price action that led to this formed an Arc Top similar to today's. Even the 1W RSI sequences between the two fractals are similar.
Notice also the Higher Lows trend-line that has been supporting the market in the past 2 years. The fact that this is where the 1W MA200 (red trend-line) is headed, which is the market's natural long-term Support and where the last two Bear Cycles bottomed, create a potential Target (and Support cluster) in the event the 2026 Bear Cycle is confirmed.
The 2025 correction bottomed exactly on the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level from the previous Low and if hit, it makes a case for an August contact around $105. If however the market follows a more controlled decline (more likely), it should hit the 1W MA200 by the end of the year around $115.
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NVIDIA Has it already started its correction to $100 ??NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) has been trading within a 12-year Channel Up and this is not the first time we bring forward this pattern. Both on the 1M and 1W time-frames, as a long-term perspective is required now, the signals of a Cycle Top are there.
The massive RSI Bearish Divergence but more importantly the clear rejection it made in late October 2025 on its Lower Highs Zone, brings forward the similarities with the last two Lower Highs Tops of the Channel Up.
Those Bullish Legs (essentially Bull Cycles) peaked on the second Lower High test and got confirmed when the 1M RSI dropped back again below the overbought territory. A cross below its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) technically kickstarts this correction (Bear Cycle).
Both previous Bear Cycles bottomed once the touched the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). The most recent one (October 2022 bottom) even broke below its 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. As a result, a $100 bearish Target for NVIDIA on its 1W MA200 doesn't seem far fetched at all, given that it will be considerably above the 0.382 Fib this time.
Nevertheless, if the 1M RSI hits the 43.00 - 41.00 Zone before that Target is met, the market will turn into a buy opportunity regardless.
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NVIDIA Huge Head & Shoulders forming. $127 technical Target.NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) is in the process of completing the Right Shoulder of a Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern, having turned sideways since the October 29 2025 High (ATH).
With the 1D RSI on Lower Highs, i.e. a Bearish Divergence since July 17 2025, it is possible that within a month's time max, the stock will break its Support and the H&S will target its technical extension, the 2.0 Fibonacci at $127.00.
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NVIDIA This is how it can reach $100 and the Supports involved.NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) had a strong red 1M candle last month, the first one after a rally of 7 straight green months. This is not the first time we present you this 12-year Channel Up, in fact we used this in late October to give a sell signal.
The reason is that Nvidia almost reached the top of that pattern, a technical Higher High, successive if you count the late 2024 one. Such Double Tops have been previously consistent with the start of strong corrections (Bearish Legs) which in both cases (2018 and 2022) bottomed on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
The key element that we added on the chart this time is the (green) Support Zone, which stemmed every time from the last consolidation (blue circle) before the Top.
It is no surprise that this time it also falls on the 1W MA200 and a potential contact with the price towards Q3 2026 and beyond. Even then, it will still be above the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level as in December 2018 and quite close to the bottom of the Channel Up for the first time since October 2022.
Our long-term Target and thus next long-term Buy Signal, remains $100.
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NVIDIA Trading plan from $100 to $1000. Is it plausible?Exactly a month ago, we called the end of the rally on NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), essentially the end of its multi-year Bull Cycle and the beginning of an aggressive Bear Cycle correction.
** The 10 year Channel Up **
So far this is paying dividends as the stock just completed a 4-week red streak. The essence of NVIDIA's trend has been a decade long Channel Up, as you can see on this chart and that's the basis of all the buy entries and sell exits we've made over the years.
** Bull and Bear Cycles **
Since early 2025, the stock started that Channel Up, whose first Bull Cycle (as well as the next ones with the exception of one breaking) was supported by the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). Once that Bear Cycle (in the form of the Channel's Bullish Leg) ended, the subsequent Bear Cycle (Bearish Leg) broke below both the 1W MA50 and 1W MA100 (green trend-line) and bottomed exactly on its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), marginally above the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level.
The following Bull Cycle as well as the Bear Cycle followed the same structure only, the bottom was this time marginally below the 0.382 Fib. Then the Bull Cycle that just ended started, with only basic difference that its early 2025 correction broke below the 1W MA50 but found Support on the 1W MA100. Every Bull Cycle had such pre-Top correction (blue ellipse). Note also that this last Bull Cycle as been the strongest Leg on +1881% rise and the one before it, the 'weakest' at +1004%.
** The RSI **
Notice also that the 1W RSI has made the same Double Top rejection pattern on the Lower Highs Zone that both previous Bull Cycle Tops did. Strong confirmation therefore of the emerging Bear Cycle.
** The next bottom **
Technically, we expect the market to bottom yet again on the 1W MA200, which by a fair projection of its current trajectory, we expect that to be around $100. That would still be considerably above the 0.382 Fib, which can only get hit if the Bear Cycle falls very aggressively. Note here that historically within this Channel Up, the most optimal buy signal was given when the 1W RSI hit 42.00. Use that in combination with the 1W MA200.
** Future Targets **
So after the Bear Cycle bottoms, what Target can we pursue? Well the 'minimum' projection based on the 2.618 Fibonacci extension of the Bull Cycle that just ended is $700. At the same time, if it rises by again the 'minimum' % of the weakest +1004% Bullish Leg of the Channel, we are looking potentially at a 4-year Target of $1100. It is also worth noting the valuable use of the Sine Waves that have so far accurately grasped the peak formations of the Bull Cycles. We can use this to time our market exits in 2029.
Realistic or not subjectively, the $100 to $1000 path is what the pure technicals and historical data support and clearly show is a very likely probability for a long-term investment.
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NVIDIA hit $5 Trillion but the end of the rally may be near.NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) broke this week the $5 Trillion market cap barrier, becoming the first company to do so. In the meantime, it is extending the rally that started on the April 07 Low on the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), following the end of the Tariff War.
This rally has been nothing more than a part of the larger technical Bullish Leg inside the 10-year Channel Up that NVIDIA has been trading in. Within this pattern, the price has had rather asymmetric Bullish Legs in terms of rise % but has always been rejected at the top of the Channel Up and corrected back to the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
Following the mid-Bullish Leg corrections to the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), the final rallies of the Bullish Legs before their Tops have been around +200%. Then their corrections/ Bearish Legs have always hit the 1W MA200 (as mentioned), with one time bottoming just above the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level and the other below it (0.5 Fib).
We previously had NVIDIA's top at around $240, which is slightly below this expected +200% rise from the 1W MA100 bottom. As a result, we project that a potential contact with the 1W MA200 for the 2026 Bearish Leg can be achieved around $100, which is above the 0.382 Fib, similar to 2018.
Note that a very reliable Top indicator has also been the 1M RSI and its 9-year Lower Highs Zone. Every time the RSI entered the Zone and then broke below its MA (yellow trend-line) and rebounded, the next hit was the Bullish Leg's Top. Right now the 1M RSI is about to enter this Zone for the second time, indicating that we may be approaching the end of this long-term rally.
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NVIDIA Next stop.. $200For a long time we've been calling for a $200 Target on NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA). That was our main Target for the Bull Cycle that started in November 2022. The stock is very close to this level and the short-term pattern that can get to it is this Channel Up.
Supported by the 1H MA100 (green trend-line), NVIDIA has been posting Bullish Legs of around +10% since the September 05 Low. The confirmation signal for those Legs has been a 1H MACD Bullish Cross.
Given that we formed one yesterday, we expect the price to be on such a Bullish Leg already. The 'weakest' of those sequences has been +9.58%, which if repeated, lands marginally above the $200 psychological level.
Time to hit it?
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NVIDIA What happens when it retests a Resistance after a break?NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) has been on a strong rise since the mid-term September 05 Low and this week finally broke above its previous $184 High. During the current Bull Cycle (since the October 2022 bottom), every time the price broke above a previous High and re-tested it as a Support, it started a secondary rally to new Highs.
Technically, as long as the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) holds, we should see at least a 1.382 Fibonacci extension test, similar to the February 2023 and June 2024 Highs. As a result, once the current former High / Resistance level finishes getting re-tested, we expect an end-of-the-year rally to $240.
Additionally, we will keep an eye on the 1W RSI. Typically, once it gets massively overbought above 85.00 and then starts to decline within an Arc peak formation, the time to Sell is after the middle of that Arc.
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NVIDIA Will it finally make a new ATH?NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) almost hit today its All Time High (ATH), which is currently its Resistance level. That is technically the top of a Descending Triangle pattern that the stock has been trading in since the start of August.
The last time we saw a similar pattern was during NVDA's previous ATH formation in November 2024 - January 2025. Identical price actions as well as 1D RSI sequences among the two fractals.
Based on that, we should be past a January 07 2025 ATH Resistance rejection, which targeted the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) before the next bounce. As a result, until the current ATH Resistance breaks, we should technically see a pull-back towards $166/67.
This time however, there is a strong case for a ATH break-out as the price is trading within a short-term (blue) Channel Up. As long as this holds, it can keep making Higher Highs, with the next one technically aiming above the ATH Resistance.
In any case, if that level breaks, we expect the price to target the 2.0 Fibonacci extension at just above $200.
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NVIDIA Has it bottomed??NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) broke last week below its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in 4 months (since May 06). That was perceived as the bullish trend's strongest Support and rightfully so technically.
The next level to watch as a Support is the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which was the level that held and led the stock to its previous peak during the last strong bullish trend of October 31 2023 to June 20 2024.
As you can see, there was a situation similar to today's where the price again broke below the 1D MA50 during the uptrend but kept the 1D MA100 intact and rebounded. Still, it managed to touch the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level.
As a result, there might be potential for one more weekly Leg down to $155.00 (Fib 0.236) before recovering but this would also most likely mean breaking below the 1D MA100. This is doubtful but not impossible but still there are higher probabilities of a rebound sooner.
A strong indicator that is in Support of this is the 1D RSI, which just touched its 2-year Support Zone, a level that has always been a 'Buy' whether short or long-term. As far as a Target is concerned, the 2024 Channel Up peaked on the -0.382 Fibonacci extension, which is at $245.00.
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NVIDIA Is it still a buy after its Earnings release?NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) delivered stronger-than-expected second-quarter earnings on Wednesday, but its data center revenue came in slightly below forecasts as U.S. restrictions on H20 chip sales to China weighed on results. The result was a 3.1% fall on the company's stock in after-hours trading following the report.
The obvious question is this: Is it still a buy?
The answer can be given by purely looking at the technicals. Based on the bigger picture, the stock's 5-month pattern remains a Channel Up since the April 07 bottom, and in fact the recent dip on August 20 was a Higher Low exactly on the pattern's bottom and almost on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been intact since May 06.
Given also the fact that the 1D CCI rebounded with aggression after marginally breaking below its oversold level (-100.00), similar to April 21, we expect NVIDIA to resume the bullish trend and extend this new Bullish Leg.
Since the last three Bullish Legs have all increased by a little more than +20%, we expect the price to easily reach our $200.00 long-term Target, before the next technical correction occurs.
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NVIDIA Is the path to $200 that easy?NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) has been trading within a Channel Up since the April 07 market Low, being so aggressive that it has turned its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) into Support since May 01.
The last 3 main Bullish Legs all rose by at least +20%. As long as the 1D RSI Support holds, we expect another such Leg, which would be enough for NVIDIA to reach the all important $200 psychological Target.
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NVIDIA made history! First company with $4 trillion market cap!NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) became today the first company in history to surpass a $4 trillion market value, as A.I. bulls extended the recent rally and pushed the price past the approximate $163.93 level needed to reach this market capitalization threshold.
The long-term trend on the 1D time-frame couldn't look more bullish. Coming off a 1D Golden Cross less than 2 weeks ago, the price has turned the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) into Support and sits at +88.13% from the April 07 2025 Low.
This is the exact set-up that the market had when it was coming off the 2022 Inflation Crisis bottom (October 13 2022). As you can see, both fractals started with a -44% decline, bottomed and when they recovered by +88.13%, there were just past a 1D Golden Cross. In fact that Golden Cross (January 24 2023) was the last one before the current.
NVIDIA entered a Channel Up (green) on its recovery and for as long as the 1D MA50 was supporting, it peaked on the 2.618 Fibonacci extension before it pulled back below it.
If history repeats this pattern, we are looking at a potential peak around $390, which may indeed seem incredibly high at the moment, but as we pointed out on previous analyses, the market is in the early stages of the A.I. Bubble, similar to the Internet Bubble of the 1990s.
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NVIDIA Massive Cup and Handle targets $200.NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) is pulling back aggressively following yet another positive Earnings report, where they beat the estimates again but the market is reacting with selling. That has been a 'norm' in the past 12 months but even from a technical standpoint, the price reached the 143.60 Resistance level (made of the February 18 High), so profit taking is technically normal market behavior here.
On the longer term however, this Resistance test potentially forms the top f a very powerful pattern, the Cup and Handle (C&H). At the moment, the market has the support of both the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the Handle, which has just started, has some room to safely consolidate for a while before the pattern break-out upwards.
Technically, C&H patterns reach their 2.0 Fibonacci extensions after the break-out, so our medium-term Target is set at $200.
Notice also the Bearish Divergence on the 1D RSI, which is similar to that of late October 2024. A break below the 1D MA50 risks the bullish structure on this pattern.
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NVIDIA The 1W MA100 rebound is targeting $225 at least.NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) broke last week above its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in 2.5 months and all this is generated by April's bottom rebound on the 1W MA100 (green trend-line).
The 1W MA100 has been intact since January 23 2023, so this rebound technically initiates a new Bullish Leg. Since the December 2018 bottom (previous U.S. - China Trade War), the minimum rise on such a Bullish Leg has been +156.11%. As a result, NVIDIA can now target $225 at least before the end of 2025.
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NVIDIA Massive bullish break-out after 4 months of selling.NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) made a critical bullish break-out yesterday (in the aftermath of Meta's and Microsoft AI capex numbers) as it didn't just break above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) that has been intact as a Resistance since February 27 but also above the top of the Channel Down that has been the dominant pattern throughout this correction since the January 07 All Time High (ATH).
The 1D RSI is on an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern, which is always bullish and if NVDA closes a 1D candle above the 1D MA50 next, then our short-term Target will be 143.50, which is just below Resistance 1 and the 2.0 Fibonacci extension.
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NVIDIA on Bear Market territory. Will the 1W MA100 save the day?NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) has officially entered Bear Market territory as it has declined by almost -45% from the January 2025 All Time High (ATH) and just hit its 1W MA100 (green trend-line) for the first time since the week of January 30 2023.
This is the strongest correction the stock has seen since the 2022 Inflation Crisis and based on the Time Cycle Indicator of the last two Cycle Tops, the week of Jan 06 2025 falls indeed on the third count. This high degree of symmetry isn't only present on the price action but on the 1W RSI sequence itself as the current time range from the RSI High (March 18 2024) to today's Low is fairly consistent (54 weeks, 378 days) with the top-to-bottom range of the previous two Bear Markets, 2022 and 2018 (red Channel Down patterns).
So far the current correction looks similar to the September - December 2018 as not only their RSI counts are similar but both are more aggressive and fast than the 2022 Inflation Crisis. The 2018 correction though didn't top on the 1W MA100 but almost reached the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) before making a bottom, but it did so in less than 2 months and declined by -57.40%. The current correction is already running for 3 months.
So what remains to be seen is if the 1W MA100 will manage to hold and kick-start a bullish reversal on its own, despite this correction being 'only' -43.39%. The 1W RSI dropped close enough to 30.00 (the oversold limit) though, which has historically been a very reliable indicator for a long-term buy on NVDA.
If those work in favor of the 1W MA100 holding, expect to see a strong rebound, that will confirm the new Bull Cycle with a break above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and can technically aim for at least a +1000% rise from the bottom, as both previous Bull Cycles did.
If the 1W MA100 fails, we expect a bottom by the end of June 2025 around the 1W MA200 between $65-60. Again a +1000% rise from that level is technically plausible, potentially giving a Target estimate of at least $660.
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NVIDIA 9-month Channel Up bottomed! Is it a buy??NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern for almost 9 months (since the June 20 2024 High). The correction since the start of January is technically the pattern's Bearish Leg and yesterday it hit the bottom (Higher Low trend-line).
Last time it did so was on August 05 2024 and an instant rebound followed. That was also the time the 1D RSI was on the 34.00 Support, just like today. In fact every time in the past 11 months that this RSI Support was tested, the price rebounded aggressively by at least +26.85%.
Since the previous Higher High rebound peaked on the 1.236 Fibonacci extension, our Target on the medium-term will be $164.00.
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NVIDIA Rejected on the most important Resistance of all.Last time we looked at NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) was just 20 days ago (January 29, see chart below) but we managed to get the exact bottom buy opportunity on the 1W MA50:
As the stock reacted with an immediate and relentless rally of 10 straight green 1D candles, it hit yesterday its first hurdle, the All Time High (ATH) Lower Highs trend-line and closed in red.
This Lower Highs trend-line is historically very important as every time a similar technical structure broke in the past 2 years, a strong rally followed. The early ones were stronger, which is natural to expect as the company was recovering from the 2022 Inflation Crisis and had enormous room to grow. On a side-note, the 1D RSI rebounded on its 34.00 Support, where the stock's last two bottoms were priced.
As a result, we believe that if NVIDIA breaks and closes above the current Lower Highs trend-line, it should at least repeat the last rally from its bottom (+68.69%), which translates to a $190 medium-term Target.
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NVIDIA hit its 1W MA50 after 2 years! One last rally left?NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) opened significantly lower on Monday following the DeepSeek news on more efficient and lower cost A.I. competition and by doing so, the price hit its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in 2 years, resulting in Tuesday's very strong rebound.
We have to go back to the week of January 23 2023 to see NVDA trading again on the 1W MA50, which became the major Support of the Channel Up pattern that took it off the 2022 Inflation Crisis bottom.
So the question is, does NVIDIA have fuel left in the tank for one more rally? Technically the answer is yes and it can be found on the stock's price action since July 2015. As you can see, the price has gone through 3 similar eras of Bull Cycles through Channel Up patterns and subsequent Bear Cycles of strong corrections that touched the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) before initiating the new Bull.
From the Bear Cycle bottom to the Bull Cycle's top, NVIDIA took around 1100 days (1162 during the 2015 - 2018 Cycle and 1071 during the 2019 - 2021 Cycle). Assuming the current Cycle will be at least as long as the last one (1071 days), the stock's Top is expected to be around September 2015.
It was in fact around this time during the last Cycle (Feb 2021) when NVIDIA touched again its 1W MA50, resulting into a new rally phase, the last one of the Cycle. This historic price action shows that during its last year, the stock always makes a January - Oct/Nov rally. When the 1W MA50 gets hit again, it is when the new Bear Cycle is confirmed.
As a result, based on this data set, we've entered NVIDIA's final rally of the Cycle, assuming of course it doesn't close a candle below the 1W MA50 and also that the 1M RSI recovers its MA trend-line (yellow), which also happened again during its previous Cycle.
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