Bearish drop off?NZD/USD has rejected off the pivot and could potentially drop towards the 1st support, which is a pullback support.
Pivot: 0.47327
1st Support: 0.46844
1st Resistance: 0.47643
Disclaimer:
The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party. NZDCHF: Bearish Drop to 0.46800?FX:NZDCHF is eyeing a bearish reversal on the 4-hour chart , with price approaching a clear resistance zone near the downward trendline and the 0.618 / 0.786 Fibonacci levels after recent recovery, converging with a potential entry area that could trigger further downside momentum if sellers defend amid volatility. This setup suggests a solid pullback opportunity toward the lower support zone with more than 1:2.5 risk-reward .🔥
Entry between 0.47700–0.47850 (entry from current price with proper risk management is recommended). Target at 0.46800 . Set a stop loss at a daily close above 0.48030 , yielding a risk-reward ratio of more than 1:2.5 . Monitor for confirmation via a bearish candle close below entry with rising volume.🌟
Fundamentally , NZDCHF is trading around 0.4736 in mid-September 2026.
For the New Zealand Dollar, a key release this week (ending 11 September) is the BusinessNZ Manufacturing Index (PMI) on Thursday, September 10, which provides insight into the manufacturing sector.
For the Swiss Franc, the most relevant data is the SECO Consumer Climate on Friday, September 11, along with potential comments from SNB Chairman Schlegel. 💡
📝 Trade Setup
🎯 Entry (Short):
0.47700 – 0.47850
(Entry from current price is acceptable with proper position sizing and strict risk management.)
🎯 Target:
0.46800
❌ Stop Loss:
Daily close above 0.48030
📉 Risk-to-Reward:
More than 1:2.5
Will sellers defend 0.47700–0.47850 and push NZDCHF toward 0.46800, or will buyers break the resistance zone and invalidate the bearish setup? 👇 Bearish drop off?NZD/CHF could rise toward the pivot and could reverse toward the 1st support.
Pivot: 0.47514
1st Support: 0.46988
1st Resistance: 0.47968
Disclaimer:
The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party.
NZDCHF Reversal Ahead? NZDCHF is currently trading around 0.4787, inside a key Daily supply zone and near the upper boundary of the bullish structure that has driven the pair higher over the past few months.
The latest COT data is particularly relevant. On NZD, Non-Commercial positioning improved significantly, with longs increasing by 1,395 contracts and shorts falling by 5,571. However, this happened while Open Interest dropped by 7,687 contracts. To me, this suggests that much of the improvement may be driven by short covering rather than strong new bullish positioning.
CHF shows a different picture. Non-Commercial longs increased by 4,268 contracts, while shorts decreased by 916. More importantly, CHF Open Interest simultaneously increased by 3,875 contracts. In other words, while NZD positioning is improving alongside falling market participation, CHF positioning is improving while participation is expanding. This makes the CHF flow more convincing and supports my bearish bias on NZDCHF.
Seasonality adds another layer of confluence. NZD has historically shown weakness during August across the 20-year, 15-year, 10-year and 5-year averages, while CHF seasonality is comparatively stronger.
There is, however, an important warning signal: 69% of retail traders are already short NZDCHF, with only 31% long. From a contrarian perspective, this is potentially bullish and becomes even more relevant because the Daily market structure has not yet turned bearish.
From a technical perspective, my main area of interest is 0.4785–0.4805. Price is trading inside Daily supply, close to recent highs and near liquidity above 0.4800. This is an excellent location to look for a reversal, but location alone is not enough for me to enter.
Ideally, I want to see price sweep the highs around 0.4785–0.4805, reject the area and then produce a clear bearish structural shift on H1.
If the bearish scenario is confirmed, my first area of interest is 0.4740–0.4730, followed by 0.4710. A decisive break below 0.4710 would make a deeper move toward 0.4650–0.4630 increasingly interesting.
On the other hand, a convincing breakout and acceptance above approximately 0.4800–0.4810 would weaken my bearish thesis. Falling toward strong support?NZD/CHF is falling toward the pivot, which is an overlapping support that lines up with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce toward the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 0.47514
1st Support: 0.47114
1st Resistance: 0.47968
Disclaimer:
The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party.
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