XAUUSD | Broke Symmetrical Triangle pattern --> Bullish BiasMacro:
- Gold prices advanced this week as renewed demand for hedges and expectations for Fed rate cuts offset still‑elevated US yields. Persistent geopolitical risks and concerns about the global growth outlook continued to underpin safe‑haven interest in gold.
- This week’s gains were supported by softer US data, including weaker private payroll indicators, which strengthened expectations that the Fed will deliver a rate cut at its upcoming meeting. These developments have weighed on the dollar at times, helping gold prices hold near recent highs, even as benchmark US Treasury yields hover around 4.10% rather than falling decisively. Structural drivers also remain in place, with investors and central banks maintaining exposure to gold as a hedge against policy missteps and inflation surprises.
- Gold prices may stay supported if upcoming US inflation data and Fed communication confirm a path toward easier policy and a softer dollar. Any downside surprise in inflation or a more dovish‑than‑expected Fed stance would likely reinforce that narrative. At the same time, a hawkish shift or stronger‑than‑expected data could prompt a temporary pullback. Gold may also react sharply to any escalation in geopolitical tensions or negative growth surprises that tighten financial conditions, as both factors tend to boost safe-haven demand and influence real-yield expectations.
Technical:
- XAUUSD broke the Symmetrical Triangle pattern and rose toward the resistance at 4245 before consolidating within a tight range of 4200-4245. The price is above EMA21, indicating an upward momentum remains.
- If XAUUSD breaches above 4245, the price may surge and retest the ATH area at around 4365.
- Conversely, closing below 4200 may prompt a further correction toward EMA21 area.
Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
