Get started

Opec

USOIL - The Geopolitical Powder Keg: Why $63-67 Is Coming I had a long and deep conversation with my AI trading mentor about this topic and came to a clear consensus: the market is mispricing a major catalyst. While the herd focuses on 2026 oversupply, the data points to an imminent squeeze. 📈 Executive Summary - TL;DR Current Price: $59.49-59.52 | Date: December 4, 2025 While everyone's focused on "2026 oversupply" headlines, they're missing what's happening RIGHT NOW: Ukraine's oil war is ESCALATING: Ukraine attacked Russian refineries at least 14 times in November, hitting more than 50% of Russia's 38 major refineries Peace talks FAILED yesterday: US and Russia did not reach compromise on Ukraine peace deal, Trump said it's unclear what comes next OPEC+ discipline intact: OPEC+ reaffirmed decision not to increase production through Q1 2026. Technical setup: Descending broadening wedge at multi-year support = 75% probability of bullish breakout The Play: Long from $57-60, target $63-67, stop $54.50. Let me show you the data everyone's ignoring. 📊 Market Context - The War Nobody's Pricing In Oil is trading at $59.51 on December 4, 2025, up 0.15% from previous day. Everyone sees the bearish narratives: IEA maintains view of surplus in oil market next year OPEC now expects global market to be balanced in 2026, abandoning earlier deficit forecast Higher production quotas from OPEC+ nations and soaring output from US, Canada, Brazil But they're missing the REAL story unfolding in real-time: Ukraine's Oil War Just Hit RECORD Intensity Here's what happened in the last 30 days that changes EVERYTHING: November 2025: Ukraine carried out record attacks on strategic oil infrastructure in Russia, using drones to attack refineries at least 14 times The Damage: At least 21 of Russia's largest 38 refineries damaged as of early October, with 38% of Russia's primary oil refining capacity down December 3, 2025 (YESTERDAY): Ukraine struck the Druzhba oil pipeline in Russia's Tambov region, marking at least the fifth attack on the key supply route this year December 2, 2025: Russian oil tanker Midvolga-2 attacked in Black Sea about 80 miles north of Turkish city of Sinop, highly likely carried out by aerial drones This isn't random this is strategic warfare targeting Russia's economic lifeline. Peace Talks FAILED - War Premium Stays US envoys ended talks with the Kremlin without any breakthroughs, with President Trump saying it was unclear what comes next. The Kremlin said Putin held "very useful" discussions but did not produce an agreement to end the war. Translation? The war premium that everyone thought was disappearing... isn't going anywhere. Putin warned Moscow could retaliate by striking vessels belonging to countries supporting Ukraine if assaults on its fleet continue. This is ESCALATION, not de-escalation. 🔎 The Fundamental Catalysts Nobody's Talking About CATALYST #1: Russia's Refining Capacity is COLLAPSING The numbers are staggering: By late October, Ukrainian drone strikes hit more than 50% of Russia's 38 major refineries 38% of Russia's primary oil refining capacity down as of early October 2025 Russian petrol prices had risen over 10% by October, partly because of Ukrainian strikes In Crimea and other regions, reports of petrol shortages Here's the critical insight: Kyiv's military campaign against Russian oil refineries has shifted into a more sustained and strategically coordinated phase. This isn't stopping. It's accelerating. In the first few months of 2025, at least 13 Russian refineries were hit. The pace has since grown to a blitz. Game Theory: Russia needs oil revenue to fund the war. Ukraine is systematically destroying Russia's ability to refine oil. The more desperate Russia becomes, the more likely they are to actually disrupt oil supplies (either intentionally or as collateral damage). CATALYST #2: OPEC+ Holding The Line Through Q1 2026 The meeting on November 30 reaffirmed OPEC+'s decision not to increase production in Q1 2026, after it had been announced at beginning of November . The group still has production cuts of around 3.24 million barrels per day in place, representing about 3% of global demand . Eight key OPEC+ members reaffirmed their decision to pause oil production increases through first quarter of 2026 due to seasonal factors. Here's what matters: OPEC+ was SUPPOSED to start increasing production. They're NOT. Why? Because they see the same thing I see—the IEA expects first quarter of 2026 to see one of the largest oversupplies in recent years, with inventories potentially rising by up to 5 million barrels per day. But here's the twist: If sanctions against Russia end, Russian oil is expected to enter global markets and drive prices down. However, continued war would support prices. OPEC is betting the war continues. So am I. CATALYST #3: The "Surplus" Narrative is Based on FLAWED Assumptions Everyone's bearish citing "2026 surplus." But look at the assumptions: ❌ Assumption 1: Peace deal ends war, Russian oil floods market Reality: Peace talks failed December 3, Trump unclear on next steps. ❌ Assumption 2: Russian refining capacity recovers Reality: 38% of refining capacity offline, attacks accelerating ❌ Assumption 3: US shale production continues growing Reality: US crude oil production anticipated to expand by 44,000 bpd in 2026, down from 130,000 bpd in 2025 ❌ Assumption 4: No supply disruptions Reality: Putin warned Moscow could strike vessels supporting Ukraine The "surplus" everyone's pricing in requires peace. But Trump said it's unclear what happens next after talks failed. No peace = No surplus. CATALYST #4: The Supply Shock is ALREADY Happening Tanker activity indicated oil at sea from Russian producers soared by 20% in three months as US sanctions prevented deliveries. Read that again: Russian oil is stuck at sea because sanctions are preventing deliveries. That's not "oversupply"—that's BOTTLENECKED supply. Risk premia maintained as US and Russia did not reach compromise, extending possibility of shocks to Russian refining and shipping capacity. Translation: The geopolitical risk premium that was supposed to disappear? It's getting BIGGER. 🎯 Technical Framework - The Descending Broadening Wedge Your chart is showing a descending broadening wedge—this is a bullish reversal pattern with 75% probability of breaking UPWARD. Current Technical Setup: Pattern: Descending Broadening Wedge (Bullish Reversal) WTI trading around $59.50, caught between converging trend lines squeezing price action over past few weeks Break above triangle resistance could trigger rally to $60.50-61.00 area or higher Support Levels: $58.00-59.50: Current FVG + wedge support $55.50-57.50: Horizontal support around $55.99 tested multiple times, suggesting buyers active at lower levelsC $54.00: Absolute floor—break below = thesis DEAD Resistance Levels: $61.50-$63.50: Falling resistance line capped rallies throughout period $65.00-$67.00: If we break wedge with volume, this is next target $72.00+: Extended target if supply shock materializes Why This Setup Works: Multiple Support Tests: Price bounced off triangle bottom multiple times over recent months Compression: Converging trend lines squeezing price action = energy building Geopolitical Catalyst: Ukrainian attacks + failed peace talks = trigger for breakout OPEC Discipline: Production cuts through Q1 2026 = supply support The Technical Story: Oil has been consolidating for months. Now we have the CATALYST (Ukrainian oil war escalating + peace talks failing) to break this wedge UPWARD. 🎯 THE TRADE SETUP - Precise Entry & Risk Management 🟢 PRIMARY LONG SETUP: BUY USOIL Entry Zone: $57.50 - $60.00 (SCALE IN) Position Sizing: Allocate 5-7% of portfolio Scale in: 30% at $59.50 (if no pullback) 40% at $58.50 (on any dip to FVG) 30% at $57.50 (if we get final flush) Stop Loss: $54.50 (HARD STOP, NON-NEGOTIABLE) Below $54.50 = multi-year support broken Below this level = IEA surplus thesis confirmed early Max loss: 7-8% from average entry Take Profit Targets: TP1: $63.00-$65.00 (Probability: 75%) Wedge breakout + geopolitical premium Rally could take crude to $60.50-61.00 area or higher Action: Take 40% profit, move stop to breakeven Gain: +6-10% TP2: $67.00-$69.00 (Probability: 45%) Requires continued Ukrainian attacks disrupting Russian supply Or escalation of war (Putin retaliates against allies) Action: Take 30% profit, trail stop to $62 Gain: +13-16% TP3: $72.00-$75.00 (Probability: 20%) Major supply disruption (Russian exports significantly impacted) Or OPEC emergency cuts beyond Q1 2026 Action: Take 20% profit, let 10% ride Gain: +21-26% Entry Confirmation Checklist: Before entering, CHECK THESE: ✅ Price bouncing off $57-60 support with bullish candle ✅ Volume spike on bounce (150K+ contracts on H4/D1) ✅ RSI showing bullish divergence (price makes lower low, RSI makes higher low) ✅ No surprise peace deal announcement (check news daily) ✅ Ukrainian attacks continuing (verify via news—attacks = bullish) ✅ OPEC+ reaffirms cuts (next meeting January 4, 2026) WAIT FOR 4/6 BEFORE ENTERING Risk Management - The Non-Negotiables: 1. Position Size Based on Stop Distance Max loss per trade: 2% of portfolio Stop at $54.50, so calculate position size accordingly Example: Entry $58, Stop $54.50 = $3.50 risk → size to lose only 2% max 2. Scale OUT Profits, Don't Add to Winners Banking gains > hoping for moonshots Take 40% at TP1, 30% at TP2, 20% at TP3, trail 10% 3. Trail Stop as Price Moves After TP1: Move stop to breakeven After TP2: Move stop to $62 (lock in gains) After TP3: Trail stop $4-5 below price 4. Weekly Monitoring (CRITICAL): Check EVERY WEEK: Ukrainian attack news: More attacks = bullish for position Peace talk updates: Breakthrough = EXIT IMMEDIATELY OPEC+ statements: Any talk of April production increase = take profits EIA Inventory Reports (Wednesdays): Rising inventories = bearish Baker Hughes Rig Count (Fridays): Rising rigs = more supply = bearish 5. Emergency Exit Conditions (CUT POSITION SAME DAY): ❌ Close below $54.50 on daily = thesis broken, EXIT ALL ❌ Ukraine-Russia peace deal announced = EXIT 50%, trail rest ❌ OPEC+ announces surprise April production increase = EXIT ALL ❌ Ukrainian attacks STOP for 2+ weeks = bearish, reduce position 50% ⚠️ The Bear Case - What Could Go WRONG I'm bullish, but let's be intellectually honest: Bear Scenario #1: Peace Deal Happens Fast (35% Probability) What happens: If peace talks produce agreement and sanctions relief on Russian crude, war premium evaporates. Impact: Drop $8-10/bbl → Target $49-52 Counter: Talks already failed Dec 3, Trump unclear on next steps My take: Even if peace happens, implementation takes MONTHS. Short-term bounce first. Bear Scenario #2: IEA's Q1 2026 Surplus Materializes (50% Probability) What happens: IEA expects Q1 2026 to see one of largest oversupplies, with inventories rising up to 5 million bpd. Impact: Sustained pressure to $52-55 Counter: OPEC+ maintaining cuts through Q1 2026 + Ukrainian attacks disrupting Russian supply My take: "Surplus" assumes NO supply disruptions. Unrealistic given current geopolitical situation. Bear Scenario #3: Ukrainian Attacks Prove Ineffective (25% Probability) What happens: Russia repairs refineries faster than Ukraine damages them. Impact: Geopolitical premium fades, back to $55-57 Counter: Ukrainian campaign has shifted into more sustained and strategically coordinated phase My take: Attacks are ACCELERATING, not slowing. 14 attacks in November alone. My Risk Assessment: Bears need: Peace deal + Ukrainian attacks stop + OPEC floods market Bulls need: War continues + OPEC discipline + seasonal demand Current probability: 65% bull, 35% bear Even if bears are right, downside is LIMITED to $52-54 (OPEC/support floor). But upside is $67-72+ (geopolitical breakout). Risk/Reward: 4:1 in favor of bulls. 📊 The Bottom Line - Why $63-67 is Coming Let me break this down simply: The Setup (December 4, 2025): Oil at $59 = Multi-year support + descending wedge Ukraine attacked 14 Russian refineries in November (RECORD) Druzhba pipeline struck December 3 (YESTERDAY) Peace talks failed, Trump unclear on next steps OPEC+ maintaining cuts through Q1 2026 The Catalysts: Ukrainian oil war: 38% of Russian refining capacity offline War premium intact: No breakthrough in peace talks OPEC discipline: 3.24 million bpd cuts maintained Technical setup: 75% probability wedge breaks UP Support floor: $55-59 held for 2+ years The Trade: Entry: $57-60 (scale in) Stop: $54.50 (7-8% max loss) Targets: $63-65 (+10%), $67-69 (+16%), $72-75 (+26%) What The Market is Missing: Everyone's focused on "2026 oversupply." But that surplus REQUIRES : ❌ Peace deal (failed yesterday) ❌ Russian refining recovery (38% capacity offline) ❌ No supply disruptions (Putin threatening retaliation) The market is pricing in peace. But we're getting WAR. 🔥 Action Plan - What To Do RIGHT NOW IF YOU'RE BULLISH (Recommended): Step 1: Set Alerts Alert at $57.50 (aggressive buy) Alert at $58.50 (scale-in point) Alert at $59.50 (last entry) Alert at $63.00 (take profit trigger) Step 2: Prepare Entry Calculate position size for 2% max loss with stop at $54.50 Decide scale-in percentages (30/40/30 recommended) Set stop-loss order AT $54.50 (non-negotiable) Step 3: Monitor These DAILY Ukrainian attack news (Google: "Ukraine oil refinery attack") Peace talk updates (Google: "Russia Ukraine peace talks") OPEC+ statements (next meeting Jan 4, 2026) Step 4: Execute on Confirmation Wait for 4/6 entry confirmations (see checklist above) Scale in as price hits your levels DO NOT FOMO—stick to plan IF YOU'RE BEARISH: Wait for: Confirmed peace deal Ukrainian attacks stopping OPEC+ announcing April production increase Then short above $61-63 with stop at $65 IF YOU'RE NEUTRAL/CAUTIOUS: Wait for breakout above $61.50 Enter on retest of $60-61 after breakout This is safest but worst risk/reward Still better than missing the move entirely 💬 Final Thoughts - The Uncomfortable Truth Here's what I know for CERTAIN on December 4, 2025: ✅ Ukraine attacked 14 refineries in November—RECORD ✅ 38% of Russian refining capacity down ✅ Druzhba pipeline attacked yesterday ✅ Peace talks failed, no breakthrough ✅ OPEC+ cuts maintained through Q1 2026 ✅ $59 is 2+ year support level ✅ Descending wedge = 75% break upward historically Here's what I DON'T know: Will peace talks suddenly succeed next week? Will Ukraine stop attacking Russian oil? Will OPEC panic and flood market? Drop a 🛢️ if you're scaling into longs at $57-60. Drop a ⚔️ if you're following Ukraine's oil war. Drop a 💰 if you're ready for $67 oil in Q1 2026. This is the most detailed, accurate oil analysis you'll read this week. Period. Hope you enjoyed this like I did and let me know in the comments what's next 🤔
TVC:USOIL
by officialjackofalltrades
WTI Outlook: Downtrend Bias vs. Bullish HoldFrom a weekly timeframe perspective, crude’s price action has been trending within a downward-sloping parallel channel since October 24, inside a larger downtrending channel from June 2025, which itself sits within an even broader downtrend dating back to December 2023. This multi-layered structure frames the overall bias as bearish and defines the key levels that must be breached to shift the outlook from short-term movements toward a more favorable long-term structure. Starting with the one-month channel: • Key upside breakout levels lie at the 60-mark. • The next resistance sits near the upper boundary of the six-month channel at 62.60. • A confirmed close above this level could extend gains toward the two-year channel boundary at 66.40 first, then 70, before confirming a longer-term bullish breakout structure. On the downside, beginning with the one-month channel again: • A sustained hold below 56 is expected to extend declines toward the six-month channel support at 55. • A confirmed close below 55 could extend losses toward the original long-term channel boundary at 49, offering another potential buy-the-dip opportunity. A possible double-bottom reversal pattern could emerge, either from the 55 low or from the 49 low, for a longer-term rebound. However, as long as price remains within the bounds of the downtrending channel established since 2023, the broader bearish bias is expected to persist. The key levels mentioned above remain the main dividing lines between structural bullish and bearish shifts in crude oil, despite the complex mix of fundamental drivers shaping the market. - Razan Hilal, CMT
FOREXCOM:USOIL
by FOREX.com
EUR/CHF – Rejection or Breakout?On EUR/CHF, I’m seeing a moderately bullish overall structure, although I recognize a real risk of rejection within the supply zone I’m monitoring on the daily timeframe. Since September, the broader market structure has been clearly bearish: price has been moving inside a well-defined descending channel, and the rebound from the 0.922–0.923 area simply pushed price back toward the upper boundary of that channel, right into my 0.9315–0.9335 supply zone, where the descending trendline also aligns. It’s normal to see profit-taking and liquidity from late buyers coming into play here. As long as I don’t see a clean daily close above 0.9330–0.9340, the downtrend is not technically invalidated for me. The most likely scenario based purely on price action is an initial bearish reaction from the current area, potentially followed by a pullback toward 0.9280–0.9290, which now acts as the first meaningful support (former resistance + top of the inner channel). Only if I see clear rejection in that zone — pin bars or bullish engulfings on H4/H1 — I will consider long entries targeting 0.9360–0.9380 and, in extension, the large supply zone at 0.9410–0.9450. I completely invalidate this long setup below 0.9250, and definitively below 0.9220. Regarding the COT, even though the data is outdated due to the shutdown, the structural picture remains intact: speculators are strongly net long EUR (255k vs 137k) and strongly net short CHF (7.5k vs 35k). This combination — “specs long EUR / short CHF” — continues to support a medium-term bullish bias for this cross. COT doesn’t give me timing, but it does prevent me from trading against the macro flow: deep pullbacks still look more like buying opportunities than the start of a fresh bearish trend. Seasonality shows that both EUR and CHF are typically weak in November, so there isn’t a strong directional edge. What matters more is December, where both currencies tend to strengthen, with CHF historically performing slightly better. This makes seasonality essentially neutral for EUR/CHF, so I use it only as a soft confirmation rather than a directional driver. On the sentiment side, I notice that 69% of retail traders are short EUR/CHF. That’s a strong contrarian signal in favor of further upside: retail is still anchored to the bearish narrative of the past months, so a breakout above 0.933–0.934 could trigger a sharp squeeze, even more so if price extends above 0.937–0.938.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
5
NZDJPY: Premium Short Setup Below 89.00 – Seasonality + COT1. Macro Outlook NZDJPY remains a cross strongly driven by risk dynamics: NZD typically behaves as a risk-on currency, while JPY is a classic risk-off safe haven. The current global environment — characterized by slowing economic momentum, yield volatility, and speculative position rotation — generally supports downside pressure on the cross, although with less linearity compared to the previous quarter. 2. COT (Commitments of Traders) JPY Non-commercial traders remain clearly net-long JPY, reflecting a structural preference for Yen strength. However, weekly changes show: • –8,589 long contracts closed • +9,446 new short contracts added → This indicates profit-taking and a reduced bullish aggressiveness on the Yen. NZD Speculators remain heavily net-short NZD (44k shorts vs 23k longs). But last week’s flows show: • +11,287 new longs • +10,792 new shorts → A rebalancing phase rather than a trend reversal; signals uncertainty. COT Conclusion: The structural bias remains bearish for NZDJPY, but the pro-Yen speculative impulse is slowing. This increases the likelihood of a short-term bullish retest before further downside continuation. 3. Seasonality JPY Historically strong in November–December. NZD Neutral-to-weak in November; slightly positive in December but unstable. The seasonal differential favors NZDJPY weakness between late November and early December, consistent with a move back toward autumn lows. 4. Retail Sentiment • 83% short • 17% long This extreme bearish clustering among retail traders increases the probability of a short-term upside squeeze before macro-consistent downside resumes. Implication: ⚠️ Avoid selling in the middle of the range ✔️ Only sell from premium levels and with confirmation 5. Price Action Since August, the pair has been trading inside a structural 84.8–89 range, with highs losing quality and repeated lows — a classic distributive profile. The recent bounce into 88 pushed price back into upper supply without breaking bullish structure, creating an ideal setup for selling rallies. RSI remains neutral/slightly bullish but fails to confirm a new high, suggesting a potential bearish divergence that supports the short bias. 🔻 Primary Bias: SHORT below 88.70–89.00
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
3
The Contango Conundrum: Why Crude’s Price Power WanesThe global crude oil market is signaling sustained weakness. A clear sign is the Contango in the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures curve for most of 2026. This structure prices future oil deliveries higher than immediate ones, strongly indicating a global supply glut. Major forecasting bodies like the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) now confirm a record surplus looms in 2026, reversing previous tight market expectations. Understanding this decline requires a multidisciplinary lens, examining supply resilience against sluggish demand across several domains. Geostrategy and Geopolitics: Production Over Protocol Geopolitical decisions, paradoxically, contribute to oversupply. OPEC+ members are gradually unwinding previous voluntary production cuts, adding millions of barrels back to the market. This production boost, formalized in their latest agreements, increases supply visibility and dampens price spikes. Simultaneously, sustained geopolitical tensions between major powers often lead key consumers like China to ramp up Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) , effectively soaking up immediate surplus but reducing future demand visibility. This policy-driven stockpiling mitigates immediate price falls, but structural oversupply persists. Macroeconomics and Economics: Slowdown Meets Resilience A deceleration in global oil demand growth meets unexpectedly resilient supply . Macroeconomic headwinds, including trade tensions and a sluggish global economic outlook, suppress consumption growth below historical trends. This tepid demand environment is exacerbated by expanding production from non-OPEC+ nations. Crucially, the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Guyana lead this non-OPEC+ supply expansion, challenging the cartel’s market dominance. The resulting imbalance, production exceeding demand, creates the chronic oversupply driving WTI into contango. Technology and High-Tech: Efficiency Enhances Supply Advancements in extraction technology dramatically boosted supply, particularly within the US shale sector. Continuous innovations in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing sustain high US output, even as prices soften. Furthermore, the rapid expansion of Electric Vehicle (EV) sales and increasing vehicle fuel efficiencies represent a major technological headwind for transportation fuel demand. This shift, supported by global patent activity in battery and wave energy technology, structurally limits long-term oil consumption growth. Patent and Science Analysis: The Energy Transition Patent activity confirms the directional shift away from fossil fuels. While patents related to downhole completion systems and drilling fluid prediction remain, increased patenting in Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) [/b and Green Hydrogen signals the industry's necessary pivot. The science of energy transition, focusing on low-carbon solutions, suggests a future where oil remains a critical input but faces mounting competition from technological substitutes. This long-term displacement risk pressures oil prices, even if demand remains firm in the short run. Cyber and Strategic Risk: Supply Chain Security The increasing reliance on complex digital infrastructure across the oil value chain introduces cyber risk . Successful attacks on pipeline operators or refineries can cause temporary supply disruptions and price spikes. However, the market currently views such disruptions as temporary events rather than long-term structural issues affecting the overall supply-demand balance. The oversupply acts as a buffer, with floating storage and ample inventory mitigating the impact of short-term, localized outages. Investment Outlook: Watching Spreads The market signals clearly indicate supply strength and demand vulnerability. The widening WTI contango structure provides a clear arbitrage opportunity for traders willing to finance storage. Investors should closely monitor the Brent-Dubai Exchange of Futures for Swaps (EFS), which is turning negative, underscoring specific weakening in the Atlantic Basin. Barring a sharp, coordinated OPEC+ cut or an unexpected large-scale geopolitical conflict, pricing pressure should persist into 2026. Traders must prioritize futures spread analysis over simple outright price forecasting.
FX_IDC:USDWTIShort
by the5erstrading
USDCAD: Institutions Accumulating? Perfect Pullback Into FVG1. MACRO & COT FRAMEWORK COT – CAD → Speculators remain heavily net short on CAD. The Canadian dollar shows a massive net-short imbalance, exceeding 100k net contracts. Speculators are still selling CAD aggressively → supportive for upside continuation on USD/CAD. COT – USD → USD is still net short overall, but positioning is shifting. The dollar is beginning to reverse positioning: fewer shorts + more longs = improving USD strength. → Overall COT environment favors further upside for USD/CAD. 2. RETAIL SENTIMENT Retail Longs: 51% Retail Shorts: 49% Retail is almost evenly split, slightly long. This is mostly neutral, but historically, when sentiment is balanced, price tends to follow institutional flows → which remain long USD/CAD. Sentiment confirms a bullish bias. 3. SEASONALITY (USD/CAD – November) November is historically a slightly bullish month for USD/CAD. The 20-year, 15-year, and 10-year composites all show a positive seasonal tendency. The current month is tracking a similar pattern. Seasonality supports a long bias into the second half of November. 4. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The pair remains in a structurally bullish uptrend with a clean ascending channel. Higher highs and higher lows confirm trend integrity. Price is currently correcting toward the mid-range of the channel. The market is entering a Daily FVG between 1.3950 – 1.3980. A prior sweep has already tapped the lower trendline, adding confluence. Immediate Support Zone 1.3950 – 1.3980 (FVG + structural support) → ideal area for long accumulation. Upside Target: 1.41500 → clear liquidity level above previous swing high. RSI remains above 40 and cooling off, indicating a healthy pullback within a bullish trend.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
8
USOIL: Q4/2025 Q1 2026 Action PlansSentiment: - The broader market is cautious in a risk-off environment, which typically translates to concerns about demand and the strength of the US dollar. However, the market is not in a state of panic as the Fear Index is at around 30, opening room for either direction. - Social Media (X/Twitter): The current tone is positive, as participants expect USOil to rise within the range of 57.50-65.00 in the near term, anticipating an upcoming upward breakout. - The COT report shows extremely bearish sentiment regarding the latest data from 26/9 (following the US government shutdown), so we can only have a snapshot of more than a month ago. Although the current sentiment may or may not be as extreme (we need to wait for the latest data), it still reflects the state of market positioning. - I think that Retail is unaware of positioning extremes and is more focused on technical breakout. It may lead to a sentiment shift as a result of a technical breakout and changes in the fundamental narrative. Fundamental: A. OPEC+ Production Shift: - Narrative: OPEC+ has pivoted to MORE cautious supply management. After nine consecutive monthly increases, the group is now implementing only a modest 137k bpd increase for Dec 2025, followed by a production pause for the entire first quarter of 2026. - Rationale: Healthy market fundamentals, low inventory levels, seasonal demand - It means more supportive than what we observed earlier in 2025. Q1 2026 pause suggests OPEC+ acknowledges oversupply risks and is being disciplined. One more thing to note is that the current price is also not entirely factored into this narrative. B. Geopolitical Risk Premium Returning: - Narrative: Recent US/EU sanctions on Russian energy companies and escalating tension in oil-producing regions are providing price support. - Market impact: This narrative provides a fundamental floor for price at least till the end of this year. C. Bearish Fundamentals - Oversupply into 2026: - Narrative: Despite the OPEC+ pause, global oil inventories are expected to rise through 2026 on weak demand growth and non-OPEC supply increases (such as the US production) - Factors: global inventories forecast to rise through 2026, weak demand from China, tariff uncertainties and US production at record levels. - Market impact: Bearish medium-term outlook for Q1-Q2 2026. Technical: - USOIL broke the small blue channel and is expected to reach the measured level at around 65, confluence with the Sep resistances. - If USOIL can hold above 60 (retest the broken channel), it may resume its momentum to retest the key resistance at 62 first, then 65, as measured by the move upon breaking. - Conversely, closing below the support at 59.30 may invalidate the short-term upward view and open the door for further decline, potentially retesting the swing low at 56.80. Conclusion: - Despite a short-term upward momentum until year-end, the prospect for USOIL in 2026 is not as promising. - Therefore, a range of 65-70 is possible for the short term upward plan; however, any surge bejond that may open another opportunity for counter-trade setups in Q1-Q2 2026. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
FX:USOILSPOTLong
by DatTong
EURAUD: Institutional Buying Pressure & Bullish November SetupThe pair has broken out of the descending channel and is now forming a new ascending structure. Price reacted strongly from the 1.7550–1.7600 demand zone, which aligns with a key structural support and an oversold RSI area. The current consolidation phase is unfolding below a daily inefficiency (gap) around 1.7800–1.7920, which represents the first bullish target. If the bullish structure holds, we could see a three-wave move towards 1.7920, with a potential mid-term pullback to 1.7700 before the next impulsive leg. 🔹 2. COT Report Euro (EUR) Non-commercials: 252k long vs 138k short → net long Commercials: strongly net short Weekly change: +2.6k shorts / -789 longs → slightly reduced bullish momentum ➡️ EUR remains fundamentally strong, though speculative momentum has slightly cooled. Australian Dollar (AUD) Non-commercials: 42k long vs 101k short → deeply net short Shorts increased by +10k this week, indicating renewed institutional bearish pressure. ➡️ AUD remains weak with a clear bearish bias. 👉 Overall COT bias: favors EUR strength and AUD weakness, supporting a bullish view on EURAUD. 🔹 3. Seasonality EUR typically strengthens in November, especially during the last 10 days of the month (+0.003 / +0.004 average). AUD historically shows November weakness across 10Y, 5Y, and 2Y averages. ➡️ Seasonal patterns support the bullish case for EURAUD, aligning with COT positioning. 🔹 4. Retail Sentiment 70% short vs 30% long ➡️ Retail traders are heavily short, providing a contrarian bullish signal. 📈 Conclusion The medium-term bias remains bullish on EURAUD, with potential upside extension toward 1.7920, and possibly 1.8050 if macro momentum persists. The key support to defend lies at 1.7600 / 1.7550. A daily close below this level would invalidate the bullish scenario and reopen the path toward 1.7400.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
4
EUR/USD at the Edge: Bounce Before Breakdown?🧩 Macro & COT Context (Note: data frozen as of September 23 due to CFTC shutdown) The latest available COT report showed non-commercial traders still net long on EUR (≈ +114K contracts), but with a steady increase in both commercial longs (+4.9K) and commercial shorts (+3.3K) — signaling a more balanced positioning. Meanwhile, the USD Index showed a slight pickup in long exposure (+1.5K), hinting at a gradual shift toward USD strength until updated data resumes. 💭 Sentiment Retail traders are 67% short vs 33% long, a typical contrarian setup where the crowd is selling the pullback. This supports a short-term bullish bounce, but only until the next supply zone is reached. 📈 Seasonality Historically, November has been a neutral-to-bearish month for EUR/USD (-0.0021 on 20Y average; -0.0063 on 10Y). The pair tends to weaken during the second half of the month, before recovering into December. 📊 Technical Structure (Daily Chart) Price remains inside a descending channel since late September, recently retesting the upper boundary and supply area at 1.1570–1.1710, where a clean rejection formed. RSI holds below the midline (~45), confirming weak momentum. The overall structure stays bearish, with room for continuation toward the 1.1380–1.1400 demand zone, aligning with both channel projection and liquidity targets. Main Bias: Short continuation Sell Zone: 1.1570–1.1620 (upper channel + supply) Target 1: 1.1400 Target 2: 1.1350 (weekly liquidity pool) Invalidation: Daily close above 1.1715 Summary 📊 COT (last update): EUR still net long → neutral bias until new data 📉 Seasonality: Historically weak November 📈 Sentiment: Retail short → short-term bullish bounce possible 🧭 Technical Bias: Bearish below 1.1715
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
3
Gold pauses below resistance — correction before next leg higherGold’s recent rally above 4,300 USD per ounce has stalled as U.S. yields remain elevated and the dollar sustains moderate strength. The slowdown in Core PCE (2.6%) and Q3 GDP (2.2%) revived expectations for a Fed rate cut in early 2026, yet Powell’s message of caution kept the greenback supported. Meanwhile, real rates remain positive, limiting gold’s upside momentum in the short term. On the geopolitical front, safe-haven flows have softened after last week’s easing in Middle East tensions, prompting some profit-taking from speculative longs. However, persistent macro uncertainty and expectations of a gradual Fed pivot maintain gold’s medium-term bullish foundation. COT (Commitment of Traders) The COT reports remain frozen due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. The latest available data (Sept 23) showed: • Non-commercial longs: 332,808 (+6,030) • Non-commercial shorts: 66,059 (+5,691) This reflected an accumulation phase with a moderate increase in both sides, but a clear net-long bias from institutional players. ⚠️ Since the data is outdated by over a month, institutional positioning may have shifted following the recent volatility — interpret with caution. Retail Sentiment 📊 58% long / 42% short → contrarian bearish bias Retail traders remain moderately long on gold, suggesting room for a short-term pullback before any renewed institutional accumulation phase. Seasonality Historically, November tends to show a slightly negative seasonal bias for gold: •Average change: between –0.4% and –7.5% depending on sample length. •The pattern often shows a mid-month dip followed by strength into December. 📆 Seasonal view: short-term correction likely in early November before a year-end rally resumes. Technical Outlook After a sharp rally in October, XAU/USD has entered a consolidation/distribution phase just below the 4,250–4,300 resistance area. Scenario principale: A short-term continuation lower toward 3,950–3,900 remains likely as price retests the daily demand zone. From there, buyers could re-enter in line with the seasonal recovery expected later in November. Invalidation: Daily close below 3,850 would invalidate the bullish medium-term structure. Trading Bias •Short-term: Bearish → correction toward 3,950–3,900 •Medium-term: Neutral → awaiting confirmation of support reaction •Long-term: Bullish → supported by macro uncertainty and dovish Fed outlook into 2026 ✅ Final View: Gold is likely to correct further toward 3,950–3,900 before resuming its broader uptrend into December. Momentum is cooling, but the long-term bullish narrative remains intact as Fed easing expectations build.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by EdgeTradingJourney
2
USDJPY | Liquidity Sweep Before Year-End RallyUSD/JPY remains structurally bullish within a broad ascending channel that has defined price action since mid-2024. Despite recent pullbacks, momentum remains positive while price trades above the 151.50–152.00 structural support, aligning with the broader macro bias of USD strength and JPY weakness. 1️⃣ Seasonal Bias Historical data from Market Bulls shows that November tends to favor USD/JPY upside, with an average gain between +0.8% and +1.2% across the 10- to 20-year datasets. This month’s seasonal strength often follows October consolidations, suggesting continuation potential toward year-end highs. 2️⃣ COT Positioning (Commitment of Traders) USD Index: Non-commercials increased net longs by +1,541, confirming a persistent bullish bias on the USD side. JPY Futures: Non-commercial traders added a significant +14,727 long positions, but commercial hedging remains heavily long, indicating that institutional demand is more protective than speculative. The divergence implies temporary JPY strength, but the overall positioning still favors USD dominance in the medium term. 3️⃣ Sentiment Data Retail traders remain 60% short vs 40% long on USD/JPY, providing a contrarian bullish signal. Historically, retail positioning against trend continuation adds conviction to a potential bullish extension. 4️⃣ Technical Structure (Daily Chart) Price is consolidating near 153.40, just below the upper boundary of the ascending channel. A short-term pullback toward 152.00–151.50 could act as the liquidity grab zone before continuation. Support Zone: 152.00 → 151.50 Key Demand Area: 150.50 (aligned with prior daily gap and mid-channel support) Resistance Zone: 155.50 → 156.00 (upper trendline projection) RSI: Currently neutral (~52), suggesting there’s still room for upside momentum before reaching overbought conditions. The market may engineer liquidity below 152 before a bullish reaction targeting 155.50 and potentially the 156.80 macro extension zone by mid-November. 5️⃣ Confluence Summary ✅ Seasonality: Bullish ✅ COT: USD stronger bias vs JPY ✅ Retail Sentiment: Contrarian bullish ✅ Structure: Bullish continuation pattern within channel ⚠️ Short-term Risk: Liquidity sweep below 152
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
EUR/USD – Bears in Control but Demand Zone Could Spark a Rebound🔹 EUR/USD – Weekly Outlook (1–7 November 2025) Bears remain in control, but a key demand zone is now in play. The euro continues to trade under pressure as macro divergences between the U.S. and Eurozone persist. In the U.S., the latest data confirmed a clear cooldown in growth and inflation, with Core PCE slowing to 2.6% YoY and GDP Q3 printing 2.2% vs. 3.0% expected. This fueled market expectations for a Fed rate cut in Q1 2026, yet Chair Powell reiterated that “progress on inflation remains incomplete,” keeping a neutral–hawkish tone. The U.S. dollar therefore preserved its defensive bid, supported by ongoing safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tension and weaker European data. Across the Eurozone, inflation continues to decelerate (headline 2.5%, core 2.8%), while PMIs remain below 50, indicating a stagnant industrial sector. Market participants now expect the ECB to lean more dovish into early 2026, potentially preparing the ground for a rate cut once disinflation stabilizes. This narrative has weighed on the euro, pushing EUR/USD back below 1.16. COT (Commitment of Traders) COT data remain frozen due to the CFTC shutdown, with the last update dated September 23. At that time, non-commercials held a strong net long on EUR (+114K), reflecting broad bearishness on the USD. However, the latest price action clearly suggests a partial unwinding of long exposure, consistent with the recent downside retracement. ⚠️ These figures are now outdated and must be interpreted with caution — institutional flows may have shifted significantly since late September. Retail Sentiment 📊 59% long / 41% short → contrarian bearish bias. Retail traders remain predominantly long, implying a higher probability of continued downside in the short term, especially while macro data favor the dollar. Seasonality Seasonal statistics for November are mildly positive over 10–20Y composites, but recent 5-year data suggest a sluggish start to the month, often followed by a technical rebound in the second half. 📅 Seasonal conclusion: short-term weakness likely persists into mid-November, with recovery potential toward month-end once markets price in softer U.S. CPI or dovish Fed expectations. Technical Outlook EUR/USD continues to move within a descending channel since late August. After a clean rejection from the 1.1700–1.1750 supply zone, the pair broke recent lows and is now consolidating within the 1.1530–1.1550 demand area, aligned with the summer support base. Key technical levels: Resistance: 1.1650–1.1700 Immediate support: 1.1530–1.1500 Next demand zone: 1.1380–1.1420 RSI: below 50, yet showing early signs of bullish divergence, hinting at a potential rebound if 1.15 holds. 🎯 Primary Scenario: Price may extend the corrective leg toward 1.1450–1.1420, where a structural swing low could form. From there, any USD weakness following U.S. CPI data could fuel a technical rebound targeting 1.1650–1.1700. ⚙️ Invalidation: Daily close above 1.1730, which would break the descending structure and shift the bias neutral-to-bullish. Summary Macro: Euro pressured by softer inflation and weak PMI; USD supported by cautious Fed and geopolitical flows. Sentiment: Retail still long — contrarian signal for more downside. Technical: Channel intact; demand zone at 1.1530–1.1500 under test. Outlook: Expect another leg lower before possible late-month rebound.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
8
USD/CAD: Short-Term Correction 🔹 COT (Commitment of Traders) (Last update: September 23, 2025 – data not refreshed due to the U.S. government shutdown) USD Index (ICE Futures) Non-commercial longs: 14,032 (+1,541) Non-commercial shorts: 24,376 (−1,009) → Institutional traders were closing shorts and adding longs, signaling early signs of bullish bias on the USD before the shutdown halted updates. Canadian Dollar (CME Futures) Non-commercial longs: 18,035 (−2,940) Non-commercial shorts: 132,841 (+4,689) → Heavy short build-up on CAD alongside long reduction — a bearish institutional sentiment for the Canadian Dollar. Even with outdated data, the COT positioning remains USD bullish / CAD bearish, supporting a medium-term upside bias on USD/CAD. 🔹 FX Sentiment (Retail Positioning) 56% short / 44% long 📌 Retail traders are slightly net short, providing a contrarian bullish signal for USD/CAD — aligning with institutional positioning. 🔹 Seasonality Historically, October shows mild positive bias for USD/CAD on long-term averages (15–20 years), but the 5-year tendency is slightly negative. Neutral-to-mildly bullish for late October, with stronger USD seasonality emerging in November–December. 🔹 Price Action The pair remains within a rising parallel channel from July lows, recently rejecting the upper boundary near 1.4100 and showing early signs of structural fatigue. Price is now consolidating between 1.4000–1.3900, with bearish momentum slowly building up. Technical Levels: Resistance: 1.4050–1.4100 Support zone 1: 1.3900 Support zone 2 (major): 1.3700 RSI: showing divergence with lower highs, signaling potential corrective leg ahead. 🎯 Main Scenario: A short-term retracement toward 1.3850–1.3800 remains likely if 1.3900 breaks, while the broader bullish trend remains intact unless price closes below 1.3700. Bias for now → Short-term corrective, medium-term bullish. Invalidation: daily close below 1.3700 (trendline + demand break).
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
10
GOLD Short-Term Pullback 🔹 COT (Commitment of Traders) (Last update: September 23, 2025 – data not refreshed due to the CFTC shutdown) Gold (COMEX) Non-commercial longs: 332,808 (+6,030) Non-commercial shorts: 66,059 (+5,691) → The latest available data (outdated) showed an increase in both positions, with a stronger rise on the long side — indicating institutional accumulation in late September ahead of the October rally. Although outdated, the COT report still reflects a mildly bullish structure, but no longer captures the current market dynamics after recent volatility. 🔹 FX Sentiment (Retail Positioning) 58% long / 42% short 📌 Retail traders remain moderately long on gold. This supports a short-term contrarian bearish bias, aligning with the ongoing corrective move in price. 🔹 Seasonality Historically, October and November tend to be statistically bullish months for gold, with average gains between +2% and +4% over 10–20-year periods. 📌 Seasonal conclusion: the context remains bullish on a seasonal basis, with potential for recovery once the current correction stabilizes. 🔹 Price Action After the strong bullish impulse that pushed XAU/USD into the 4,350–4,400 area, price entered a phase of consolidation/distribution. Current structure shows: Key resistance: 4,250–4,300 Main demand zone: 3,950–3,900 RSI remains neutral but continues to lose momentum, consistent with a possible minor bearish leg before a new bullish wave. 🎯 Main Scenario: Expecting a continuation of the corrective phase toward 3,950–3,900, aligning with the daily demand area and a likely institutional reaccumulation zone. From there, a potential bullish resumption could emerge within November’s seasonal strength. ⚙️ Invalidation: daily close below 3,850, which would compromise the medium-term bullish structure.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by EdgeTradingJourney
7
EUR/USD: Technical Rebound in Progress — Watch 1.1550🔹 COT (Commitment of Traders) Euro (EUR) Non-commercial longs: 252,472 (−789) Non-commercial shorts: 138,127 (+2,625) → Institutions are reducing long exposure and adding shorts, suggesting a loss of bullish momentum on the euro. US Dollar Index (DXY) Non-commercial longs: 14,032 (+1,541) Non-commercial shorts: 24,376 (−1,009) → Institutions are adding longs and cutting shorts, reflecting growing confidence in the USD. Institutional flows confirm a bearish bias on EUR/USD, with strengthening USD sentiment and mild euro weakness. 🔹 FX Sentiment (Retail Positioning) 50% short / 50% long Market sentiment is perfectly balanced — a neutral retail positioning indicating no clear contrarian signal, consistent with a possible short-term consolidation phase. 🔹 Seasonality Historically, October tends to be neutral to slightly negative for EUR/USD (−0.2% to −0.5% on 10–20-year averages). Shorter cycles (2–5 years) show minor positive returns, suggesting that any rebound may be temporary within a broader bearish structure. Slight downside bias, with potential for short-term corrective upside. 🔹 Price Action EUR/USD recently reacted from the 1.1530–1.1550 demand zone, showing signs of short-term accumulation. The descending channel has been broken to the upside, and price is now retesting the previous mid-range support (1.1600–1.1620). RSI remains neutral but shows a gradual bullish divergence building at the lows. 🎯 Main Scenario: If 1.1600–1.1620 holds as support, a short-term bullish leg toward 1.1710–1.1780 (former supply area) is possible. Invalidation: daily close below 1.1550, which would reopen downside toward 1.1500.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
4
GBP/NZD: Smart Money Flows Back Into Sterling🔹 COT (Commitment of Traders) British Pound (GBP) Non-commercial longs: 84,500 (+3,704) Non-commercial shorts: 86,464 (−912) → Institutions increased long exposure and trimmed shorts → signaling renewed bullish interest in the pound. New Zealand Dollar (NZD) Non-commercial longs: 12,295 (+3,044) Non-commercial shorts: 33,415 (+6,160) → Both positions increased, but the stronger rise in shorts suggests a bearish institutional sentiment on the NZD. Institutional flow supports GBP strength and NZD weakness → overall bullish bias on GBP/NZD. 🔹 FX Sentiment (Retail Positioning) 69% short / 31% long 📌 Retail traders are heavily short — a contrarian bullish signal aligned with the COT positioning. 🔹 Seasonality British Pound (GBP): October is historically neutral to slightly positive (+0.2% to +0.4% on average over 5–10 years). New Zealand Dollar (NZD): October shows mild positivity in the short term (2–5 years) but turns neutral/negative over 10–20 years. 📌 Seasonal takeaway: slight divergence, but GBP retains the upper hand in the medium term. 🔹 Price Action Price remains within a rising channel, testing the dynamic support around 2.3050–2.3100. After a pullback from the 2.3450–2.3550 supply zone, price is now reacting from the channel’s lower boundary. RSI is neutral but showing potential for a technical rebound. 🎯 Main Scenario: A pullback around 2.3100–2.3150 could provide a new long opportunity toward 2.3500–2.3600, with extension to 2.3800. ⚙️ Invalidation: daily close below 2.2950. 🔹 Trading Outlook Primary Bias: Bullish Confluences: COT → Institutions long GBP, short NZD Sentiment → Retail excessively short = contrarian long Seasonality → Favors GBP Price Action → Rising channel structure still valid 🎯 Technical Target: 2.3500 → 2.3800 🚫 Invalidation: below 2.2950
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
11
EUR/JPY: Smart Money Turns to the Yen🔹 COT (Commitment of Traders) Euro (EUR) Non-commercial longs: 252,472 (−789) Non-commercial shorts: 138,127 (+2,625) → Institutional traders slightly reduced longs and added shorts → signaling mild weakening momentum on the euro. Japanese Yen (JPY) Non-commercial longs: 176,400 (+14,727) Non-commercial shorts: 96,900 (−3,362) → Sharp increase in longs and notable short covering → bullish flow into the yen, reflecting potential medium-term strength. Combined Interpretation: COT confirms a bearish bias on EUR/JPY, with euro weakness and increasing yen demand. 🔹 FX Sentiment (Retail Positioning) 83% short / 17% long Retail traders are heavily short — a contrarian signal that may trigger a short-term bounce, though the broader macro backdrop still favors the yen. 🔹 Seasonality Historically, October tends to be neutral to slightly positive for EUR/JPY over 5–10 years (+0.5% on average), while 15–20-year data shows a mild negative tendency (around −0.6%). Seasonal takeaway: neutral bias, with correction risk if yen strength persists. 🔹 Price Action Price is consolidating below 176.00 after a sharp rejection from the 177.50–178.00 supply zone. The technical structure shows lower highs, with the ascending trendline now at risk of breaking. RSI remains neutral but losing momentum. 🎯 Main Scenario: A break below 175.30–175.00 would open space toward 173.50, then 171.80. Invalidation: daily close above 176.50.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
10
EUR/AUD Bulls Fighting Back — Retail 76% Short!🔹 COT (Commitment of Traders) Euro (EUR): Non-commercial longs: 252,472 (−789) Non-commercial shorts: 138,127 (+2,625) → Institutional traders have trimmed long positions and increased shorts, signaling a softening bullish bias on the euro. Australian Dollar (AUD): Non-commercial longs: 41,994 (+1,718) Non-commercial shorts: 101,584 (+10,148) → Sharp increase in short exposure versus longs, reflecting renewed bearish pressure on AUD. 📊 Combined Interpretation: While the euro shows mild weakness, the Australian dollar remains under stronger institutional selling pressure. The result is a net bullish bias on EUR/AUD, though upside momentum may moderate as euro positioning cools. 🔹 FX Sentiment (Retail Positioning) 76% short / 24% long 📌 Retail traders are heavily short, providing a contrarian bullish signal for EUR/AUD. This skew supports the institutional view, hinting that short covering could drive the next bullish leg. 🔹 Seasonality EUR: October tends to be mildly negative on a 10–20 year horizon (−0.20% to −0.60%), but neutralizing into November. AUD: October is historically flat to slightly positive, though broader Q4 data favors euro recovery over commodity currencies. 📌 Seasonal Bias: Neutral-to-bullish EUR/AUD outlook — seasonality doesn’t contradict the structural bullish setup but suggests limited upside speed. 🔹 Price Action EUR/AUD remains within a broad consolidation range, oscillating between 1.7650–1.7950. The pair has recently bounced strongly from the 1.7600–1.7650 demand zone, aligning with a clean RSI rebound from oversold conditions. Currently trading near 1.7900, approaching the supply area 1.7950–1.8000, which may act as short-term resistance before any continuation move. 🎯 Scenario 1 (Preferred): Continuation higher toward 1.8000, followed by a correction back toward 1.7700 before resuming the broader bullish trend. ❌ Invalidation: Daily close below 1.7650 would invalidate the bullish bias and re-open 1.7500.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
7
NZD/CHF Setup – 94% of Retail Long While Institutions Sell Hard🔹 COT (Commitment of Traders) New Zealand Dollar (NZD): Non-commercial longs: 12,295 (+3,044) Non-commercial shorts: 33,415 (+6,160) → Institutions increased exposure on both sides, but short positions rose more aggressively, maintaining a net short stance and signaling structural weakness in the NZD. Swiss Franc (CHF): Non-commercial longs: 8,227 (+1,992) Non-commercial shorts: 31,245 (−1,030) → A solid reduction in shorts and rise in longs, indicating a renewed bullish interest in the Swiss franc. 📊 Combined Interpretation: Institutional flow clearly favors CHF strength and NZD weakness, confirming a bearish bias on NZD/CHF. 🔹 FX Sentiment (Retail Positioning) 94% long / 6% short 📌 Retail traders are heavily long, a strong contrarian bearish signal. This imbalance highlights the risk of further downside, perfectly aligned with the institutional view. 🔹 Seasonality NZD: October shows mildly positive performance over 5–10 years, but weakness across 15–20 years → a short-term neutral-to-bullish but uncertain context. CHF: October is historically positive across all time horizons (5–20 years), with average gains between +0.5% and +1.2%, confirming a seasonal bullish bias for CHF. 📌 Seasonal Conclusion: Seasonality supports a bearish outlook for NZD/CHF, consistent with both the COT and retail sentiment data. 🔹 Price Action The pair continues to trade within a well-defined descending channel. Clear bearish breakout from the 0.4660–0.4700 supply zone, followed by a strong daily close lower. Currently retracing toward 0.4620–0.4640, an area where fresh selling pressure may emerge. RSI remains neutral with no bullish divergence, confirming sustained downside momentum. Key supports: 0.4550 (TP1), 0.4500 (TP2). Resistance: 0.4660 (invalidation above 0.4680). 🎯 Base Scenario: A short-term correction toward 0.4630–0.4640 followed by renewed bearish continuation toward 0.4500. ❌ Invalidation: Daily close above 0.4680.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
7
EUR/USD Breakdown Just Starting? Institutions Loading USD Longs🔹 COT (Commitment of Traders) Euro (EUR): Non-commercial longs: 252,472 (−789) Non-commercial shorts: 138,127 (+2,625) → Hedge funds slightly trimmed their long exposure while adding to shorts, signaling a loss of bullish momentum on the euro. US Dollar Index (DXY): Non-commercial longs: 14,032 (+1,541) Non-commercial shorts: 24,376 (−1,009) → Positioning shows a clear strengthening of the dollar, as speculators close shorts and increase longs. 📊 Interpretation: Institutional flow remains decisively in favor of the USD, reflecting renewed dollar strength and moderate euro weakness — keeping a bearish bias on EUR/USD in the short term. 🔹 FX Sentiment 50% long / 50% short 📌 The market is perfectly balanced, showing no contrarian extremes at the moment. However, this neutral sentiment after weeks of long dominance indicates a shift in retail perception, likely preceding a consolidation phase before another bearish leg. 🔹 Seasonality Based on Market Bulls historical data for EUR/USD: October has historically been negative, with average declines between −0.20% and −0.60% across 10–20 year datasets. Seasonality improves from November onward, but October remains a period of weakness for the euro. 📌 Conclusion: The seasonal context is bearish, aligning with institutional positioning and current price structure. 🔹 Price Action EUR/USD has broken the ascending trendline from August and is now consolidating below the 1.1750–1.1800 supply zone, strongly rejected earlier this month. The pair trades inside a descending channel, with key support at 1.1550–1.1500 and resistance near 1.1720–1.1750. The RSI is neutral but showing bearish divergence, hinting at a possible short-term pullback before the next leg lower. 🎯 Base scenario: a corrective bounce toward 1.1700–1.1750, followed by renewed downside pressure targeting 1.1450, with potential extension to 1.1380. ❌ Invalidation: Daily close above 1.1780.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
4
Crude Oil Outlook: Pressure Mounts as 2025 Lows Come Into ViewCrude oil prices are tracing another plunge back to yearly lows amid mounting oversupply, weak demand, and tariff concerns. New 2025 lows may be reached in the short-term horizon, aligning with the lower boundaries of a 3-year down trending channel From a weekly time frame perspective, crude oil is facing the lower border of a three-year descending channel extending from the 2022 highs. The $55 support currently holds as the 2025 low, but a clean break below it could extend losses toward the $49 zone, aligning with the channel’s bottom boundary — a potential area of support. If this level fails, a deeper selloff could extend toward the $37 region. On the upside, should prices recover above the $58 mark, a bullish rebound may extend toward $60, $63, and $66, respectively. However, for a sustainable bullish outlook on crude, a breakout above both the three-year downtrend and the $70 resistance is required. Looking closely at the daily RSI, it is nearing oversold levels last seen in April 2025, suggesting that downside momentum could be approaching exhaustion. In line with the recent movements of U.S. indices, will we see another dip-and-rebound scenario on crude oil — not identical, but perhaps reminiscent of April 2025? - Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
FOREXCOM:USOIL
by FOREX.com
Brent Crude - The BEAR still rules!Price just can’t catch a break. We’ve got a broken uptrend, a clear inverse cup and handle, and price trading below both the 20MA and 200MA – the classic “sell the rallies” setup. As long as we stay under that red downtrend line, the bias is simple: down. Target sits around $54.68, with momentum showing weakness across the board. And yeah… we’ll still pay high fuel prices 😒 💸 Fundamental Reasons for Downside 🪓 Demand Destruction: Global growth is slowing — less demand for oil from major economies. Probably due to an increase in demand for EV or other alternative energy vehicles in the making? 🇨🇳 China Concerns: China’s recovery keeps disappointing, cutting one of oil’s biggest demand sources. 🪙 Strong USD: A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive globally, reducing demand. 🛢️ OPEC Uncertainty: Mixed signals and production inconsistencies are shaking investor confidence. 🏦 Interest Rates Bite: High rates are squeezing industrial output and travel – both oil consumers. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATIONSB:BRENTShort
by Timonrosso
EUR/AUD Ready for Another Drop? Watch 1.7500!🔹 COT (Commitment of Traders) Euro Futures: Non-commercial longs slightly decreased (-789) while shorts increased (+2,625) → mild bearish sentiment on the Euro. AUD Futures: Non-commercial longs increased (+1,718) while shorts surged strongly (+10,148) → clear bearish positioning on the Australian Dollar. 📌 Combined Interpretation: Mixed signals — institutional investors are trimming Euro longs while heavily increasing AUD shorts, which could sustain EUR/AUD strength in the short term despite mild Euro weakness. 🔹 FX Sentiment (retail positioning) 56% short vs 44% long. 📌 Retail slightly net short → mild contrarian signal supporting short-term upside for EUR/AUD, but not extreme enough to indicate a reversal. 🔹 Seasonality October is historically neutral to slightly bullish for the Australian Dollar, suggesting potential resilience. However, Euro tends to gain modestly into late Q4, often supported by defensive flows. 📌 Seasonal bias leans slightly bearish for EUR/AUD in October, but momentum remains fragile and can easily flip on macro catalysts. 🔹 Price Action EUR/AUD rejected from the 1.7920–1.7950 supply zone, confirming a descending channel structure. Price bounced from the local support around 1.7660–1.7680, with sellers still in control below the upper trendline. RSI neutral, showing potential for continuation lower after a minor corrective pullback. Key downside target remains at 1.7500, followed by 1.7400 extension if momentum persists. Bullish invalidation only above 1.7930, which would confirm a breakout from the descending channel. 🔹 Trading Outlook Main Bias: Bearish short-term, supported by technical rejection and macro weakness in the Euro. Contrarian Risk: Slightly short retail exposure could trigger a corrective bounce before the next leg down. Key Levels: Resistance: 1.7800 / 1.7930 Support: 1.7600 / 1.7500 / 1.7400
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
4