Get started

Opec

Oil – Roadmap to Summer – 01/28/2026Good afternoon, friends! I decided to dig into oil to complete the picture for my ruble forecast. I'm sleepy, so keeping it short today (will add more details later on my page). Key Points Storage Levels (Commercial + Strategic Reserves) China Reserves as of January 31, 2026: ≈1,095 million barrels (31 days of domestic demand). Growth from November to January: +26 million barrels. The main buildup occurred in December when imports hit a record 54.6 million tonnes (+17% YoY). Current utilization of commercial tanker fleets off the coast (Shandong) exceeds 80% of design capacity — no signs of storage shortage. India Operating SPR capacity (Visakhapatnam, Mangalore, Padur): 39.1 million barrels. Fill level as of January 31, 2026: ~33 million barrels (≈84%). Over three months, an additional 3 million barrels were purchased using budget funds allocated in February 2025. Commercial inventories at refineries remain at a comfortable level of ≈26 days of processing; growth is logistically constrained (Jamnagar port loaded >95%). Demand Takeaway China has built up reserves, but levels remain below the administrative target (35 days). This creates a window for sustained high imports, especially at discounts. India is near its SPR ceiling; further purchases depend on storage expansion (Chambala-2 project, 2027). Reference: Top 10 Oil Importers (2024) China — 11.1 mb/d India — 5.2 mb/d USA — 5.0 mb/d (imports heavy crude for blending) Japan — 2.8 mb/d South Korea — 2.7 mb/d Germany — 1.9 mb/d Netherlands — 1.8 mb/d (Rotterdam — EU's "gateway") Italy — 1.5 mb/d Spain — 1.3 mb/d Singapore — 1.2 mb/d OPEC+ Decisions and Market Impact (Updated January 2026) November 30, 2025 (35th Ministerial Meeting) Decision: Extend voluntary group cuts of 2.2 mb/d through Q1 2026. Effective period: January 1 – March 31, 2026. March 3, 2026 (Expected) In-person meeting in Riyadh. Will consider gradual unwinding of voluntary cuts starting Q2 2026, contingent on "sustained demand growth and declining OECD commercial inventories." Why Specifically Until March 31, 2026? Seasonal demand: Q1 is traditionally weaker for consumption; extending cuts helps prevent inventory buildup. Market uncertainty: January–February brought EU recession risks and Suez Canal logistics disruptions. Tengiz incident: The 0.45 mb/d reduction from Kazakhstan further tightens the balance, prompting OPEC+ to "play it safe" and maintain discipline. Price Expectations Confident bullish bias amid OPEC production cuts leading up to the next meeting. Key level and first target: 73.30 USD Scenario A: Cuts Unwound on March 3 Price returns to 59 USD Followed by a correction to 64 USD (China restocks at a discount) Further decline to 52 USD possible — I lean toward this scenario Scenario B: Cuts Extended for Another Quarter Sideways movement: 72–76 USD Potential spike to 80–81 USD Then retracement to 68.50 USD Why I Consider Scenario B Unlikely The weighted-average discount on Russian barrels vs. Brent is ≈12 USD/barrel; during congestion or rising freight rates, it temporarily widens to 14–15 USD. Meaningful damage to the Russian economy only occurs when oil revenues fall below 70 USD. Sanctions are designed to keep oil prices within a range that is painful for Russia. Therefore, prices will absolutely not be allowed above 82 USD. In other words, to maintain sanctions effectiveness during the conflict, the logical approach is to cap prices at 74 USD.
RUS:BR1!Long
by SinnSeed
NZDUSD: 94% Retail SHORT…NZDUSD is flashing a classic squeeze setup where positioning and crowd sentiment are leaning the wrong way while price is breaking structure on the Daily. FX Sentiment shows an extreme imbalance with 94% of traders short vs 6% long, a contrarian tailwind that typically supports further upside as shorts get forced to cover. On the COT (as of 2026-01-20) the picture is similar: NZD non-commercials are heavily net short (large short inventory still dominant), while commercials remain strongly net long, which often aligns with “smart hedging” supporting the underlying. On the USD side, DXY non-commercials are net short, which adds fuel to NZDUSD upside if USD stays offered. Seasonality is mixed but not a headwind: longer lookbacks show January slightly negative on average, while the most recent window (5Y) has been positive—net effect is “neutral-to-supportive” into late Jan/early Feb, especially when a trend reversal is already in motion. Daily chart: price has cleanly broken the descending channel and printed an impulsive rally into the upper supply region (gray zone). From here the highest-probability path is either (1) shallow consolidation and continuation if bulls can hold above the broken structure, or (2) a controlled pullback into the first demand/flip area before the next leg higher. Key levels to map the trade: 0.592–0.605 supply (current reaction zone), 0.5814 as the primary bullish pivot/flip (previous structure + breakout base), 0.5734 as deeper invalidation (loss of the breakout shelf), and upside magnets at 0.605/0.610 (prior supply/weekly liquidity). Bias stays bullish while above 0.5814; a pullback that holds this area would be the “clean” continuation trigger, and if price accepts above 0.605 the squeeze can accelerate quickly given the positioning/sentiment backdrop.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
7
GBPAUD: 89% Retail Long + Daily Supply GBPAUD remains clearly bearish on the daily timeframe: we still have a clean LH/LL structure and steady selling pressure inside a well-defined descending channel. The latest bearish leg pushed price back into a key demand zone around 1.98–1.96. This area has produced technical bounces in the past, but it has never turned into a real trend reversal. That’s why the cleanest read right now is simple: bearish trend + sellable pullback, not a reversal. Price already reacted with a sharp spike, but as long as we stay below the 2.00–2.02 supply/imbalance, any upside move is simply a potential spot for trend sellers to step back in. My main scenario is a rebound into supply followed by short continuation, targeting liquidity below the lows: 1.9650 first, then 1.9500 if momentum expands. Invalidation is clear: only a sustained recovery above 2.02/2.03 with strong daily closes and follow-through would shift the bias. On the COT side, I don’t see positioning supporting a sustainable GBP upside, and AUD strength isn’t showing the type of structural shift needed to justify a GBPAUD reversal. This reinforces the idea that most bounces are more likely exit liquidity than real bullish restarts. Seasonality in this phase tends to move in “bursts”: quick rebounds that fade once the market reprices relative strength and flows—perfectly aligned with a bounce → continuation setup. The final piece is retail sentiment: roughly 89% long on the cross. It’s not an entry trigger by itself, but in a bearish trend it often becomes the perfect fuel for the next leg down—because when retail is this crowded on the long side, it doesn’t take much to trigger stops, pressure, and acceleration. Operational summary: below 2.02/2.03, GBPAUD remains a sell-on-rallies market. I want to see a clean pullback, rejection into supply, then a breakdown back toward the lows.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
11
XAUUSD: Key Pullback Zones Before the Next Leg UpXAUUSD remains in a strong daily uptrend, trading inside a well-defined ascending channel. Price is holding around 4,700, near recent highs, and moving in a “stair-step” structure: impulse → controlled pullback, with no major structural breakdowns. This is typical of a healthy trend where liquidity gets absorbed and repositioned progressively. In the short term, the most important level is the GAP/imbalance around 4.63k, acting as a natural magnet zone for a pullback. In a bullish environment, it’s common to see price retrace into that inefficiency to “fill” part of the move before continuation. The key concept is simple: the best long timing is not chasing highs, but waiting for a controlled retracement as long as price remains above demand. Main Daily Demand Zones 4.42k–4.50k: primary pullback area, if it holds, it confirms a classic buy-the-dip continuation scenario. 4.00k–4.18k: deeper major demand, a test here would imply a broader reset and deeper mean reversion risk. Momentum-wise, RSI remains trend-consistent: no clear structural reversal signal, but it highlights that buying “high” without a pullback increases the risk of poor timing. From a macro positioning perspective, COT is clearly bullish: Non-Commercials heavily net long (296k vs 45k short) Commercials heavily net short (typical hedging behavior) With Open Interest rising (527,455), the move looks supported by fresh participation, not just short covering. Seasonality also supports the bullish bias: January is historically positive for gold, especially mid-to-late month. This works best as a probability filter, not an entry trigger. Retail sentiment shows 59% short vs 41% long, which is a clean contrarian bullish signal: the crowd keeps trying to fade the trend, often fueling further upside spikes and extensions. Primary bias: bullish continuation. Scenario A (preferred): pullback into 4.63k–4.65k and/or 4.50k–4.42k → bullish reaction (rejection / engulfing / strong close) → continuation to new highs. Scenario B: direct breakout continuation → more fragile structure, higher risk of fakeouts and a sharp drop back into the GAP. Invalidation: daily breakdown below 4.42k with strong closes below support → potential mean reversion toward the lower demand zone.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by EdgeTradingJourney
9
EUR/USD | Bounce to 1.18 or Breakdown to 1.15?EURUSD is at a key inflection point: on the Daily chart the structure is still bearish (lower highs/lower lows inside a descending channel), but price has now reached a major demand/support zone with an ascending trendline coming in. This creates a high-probability “reaction area” where a corrective bounce can start. This is not a full reversal call: a long only makes sense with confirmation (base holding + higher lows + reclaim of the first key levels). Upside targets are 1.1695–1.1705 as the first magnet, then 1.1750, and finally 1.1800–1.1820 if price can reclaim and hold above resistance. If EURUSD fails to hold demand and closes below the base on the Daily, the long scenario is invalidated and bearish continuation opens toward 1.1570 and 1.1535. COT: Non-Commercials are still net long EUR, but longs are decreasing and shorts are increasing (not a strong bullish signal), while USD Index positioning remains net short without aggressive expansion, so price confirmation is essential. Seasonality for January is often mixed, typically favoring corrective moves over clean trends, meaning a bounce is possible but must be managed with discipline. FX sentiment is retail-short heavy (~57%), so a clean reclaim could trigger a short squeeze and accelerate into higher liquidity pools. Trade idea: look for longs only with confirmation from demand, targeting 1.1700 → 1.1750 → 1.1800/1.1820; a break below the base invalidates the setup and shifts bias back bearish toward 1.1570/1.1535.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
4
AUDJPY | Weekly Bullish EngulfingAUDJPY remains structurally bullish and the higher timeframe context is still supportive of continuation. The weekly chart printed a bullish engulfing candle, which is a strong confirmation signal when it appears within an established uptrend. This type of weekly engulfing often represents sell-side absorption and renewed demand, meaning pullbacks are still being bought and the market is not ready to reverse yet. On the daily chart, price is moving inside a clean ascending channel, respecting higher lows and maintaining momentum. After the latest impulsive leg, I’m not interested in chasing the highs. Instead, I’m looking for a controlled pullback into key demand areas to align with the trend and improve execution quality. COT (Commitments of Traders) COT positioning is not giving an aggressive “all-in” bullish signal on AUD, but JPY positioning remains fragile, which keeps the JPY-cross upside pressure valid. In this context, I treat COT as a supportive filter, not as the main trigger. Seasonality Seasonality supports the idea that upside continuation is possible, but it also suggests price may need a reset/pullback after a strong extension. That’s why I prefer a buy-the-dip approach rather than breakout chasing. FX Sentiment (Retail Positioning) Retail sentiment is extremely one-sided: around 89% of traders are short AUDJPY. In trending conditions, this is often a contrarian tailwind and can help fuel continuation as shorts get squeezed. Trading Plan Bias: Bullish (LONG) Execution idea: Wait for pullback into daily demand / channel support and look for confirmation (H4/D1 reaction). Invalidation: Daily breakdown below the key demand zone + loss of channel structure. Targets: Retest of highs first, then continuation into the next extension leg.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
COCOA(CC1!) is ready for a new leg up?Cocoa (CC) is currently reacting from a major Monthly Swing Low demand zone after an extended bearish leg. The Daily chart shows a rebound from support, but price is now approaching a key Weekly Swing High supply area that will determine the next directional move. The latest COT report delivers a mixed but highly informative signal. Non-Commercial traders remain net short (27,010 longs vs 36,506 shorts) and the weekly changes show aggressive long liquidation, confirming that speculative sentiment is still cautious. At the same time, Commercials are strongly net long (65,030 longs vs 52,935 shorts) and increased their long exposure while reducing shorts, which is typically consistent with institutional buying interest and hedging activity near key value zones. Open Interest also increased sharply (+11,181), suggesting fresh participation and a potentially decisive phase ahead. Seasonality adds a bullish timing component: historically, Cocoa tends to perform well in January and February, which supports the probability of a continuation higher if price confirms structure. From a technical perspective, the Monthly Swing Low remains the key invalidation level. As long as price holds above that demand zone, the market can be in a potential accumulation phase. A Daily close above the Weekly Swing High would confirm a breakout and unlock the next upside target into the previous Daily supply area. Until that confirmation occurs, the current move should still be treated as a rebound within a broader corrective structure.
ICEUS:CC1!Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
2
AUD/USD: Bull Trap Incoming?AUD/USD is showing clear signs of a slowdown in the bullish trend after December’s impulse, with price now consolidating below a key supply area and within a structure that is starting to lose momentum. On the daily chart, the market delivered a clean directional move, but the current phase is typical of a context where institutional players begin to distribute gradually, while retail traders tend to enter late, chasing the trend. This makes the current zone a major decision area: either price breaks higher and accelerates, or it triggers a bearish rotation into the demand blocks below. From a technical standpoint, price action highlights a recent top in the 0.6740–0.6760 area, followed by an immediate rejection and pullback. At the moment, AUD/USD is trading within a balance zone between 0.6660–0.6685, which acts as a “holding” range where the market could attempt one last recovery before a potential breakdown. The key point is that the structure is becoming increasingly fragile: bounces are less explosive and price is no longer printing progressive highs with the same efficiency. The most attractive probabilistic scenario is tied to a bearish rotation: a clean breakdown below the 0.6660 level would significantly increase the odds of a move into the first intermediate demand zone around 0.6600–0.6620, with a potential extension toward the deeper demand block between 0.6450–0.6520 (the area where the market previously accumulated before the bullish impulse). This lower zone represents the natural “magnet” if distribution completes, as it aligns with liquidity and a prior rebalancing area within the trend. Daily RSI is also losing strength and normalizing, consistent with a market shifting from an impulsive phase into a corrective one. In this type of environment, the most dangerous moves are “W-shaped” patterns or sharp spikes above recent highs, as they often serve to grab liquidity before reversing aggressively. For this reason, the 0.6740–0.6760 range remains the ideal zone to monitor for a potential fake breakout, followed by a drop back below 0.6700 as a weakness trigger. Looking at the COT report, Australian Dollar positioning shows Non-Commercial traders still net short (short exposure higher than long exposure). Meanwhile, the Dollar Index also shows a speculative component leaning short, but with dynamics that require caution: if USD finds macro support, even for a technical rebound, AUD/USD would automatically become vulnerable. The key takeaway is that we do not have a “clean bullish” positioning backdrop for AUD, making an extended rally less sustainable without a fresh accumulation phase. From an FX sentiment perspective, the signal is extremely clear: the majority of traders are short AUD/USD (87%), with only 13% long. This matters because, from a contrarian angle, it could still fuel one final upside push via a short squeeze. However, when price is trading below supply and fails to progress, such an extreme sentiment imbalance can also act as a trap signal: if the market breaks lower, many shorts already in position may take profits too early, while late longs get liquidated, accelerating the downside move. Finally, seasonality on AUD/USD suggests that January is often not a linear month: the market frequently experiences rotation and rebalancing phases after year-end trends. This fits perfectly with the idea of a mean reversion / pullback phase before any potential new directional cycle. Operational conclusion: as long as AUD/USD remains below 0.6740–0.6760, the bias stays for a controlled correction, with downside acceleration risk below 0.6660. My focus is on a distribution pattern followed by a rotation toward 0.6600 and then 0.6450–0.6520, while keeping the alternative scenario open for one last bullish liquidity grab before the real move unfolds.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
16
CADJPY – Bullish Structure IntactOn the CADJPY daily chart, price is trading within a well-defined bullish structure, characterized by higher highs and higher lows and supported by an ascending dynamic trendline. Following the impulsive move into the 114.50–115.00 area, the market is currently undergoing a consolidation phase below a daily supply zone, with compressed highs and a short-term loss of momentum. This price behavior is consistent with a technical pause rather than a structural reversal, especially considering that the lower demand areas between 112.50–111.00 remain clean, well-defended, and aligned with previous breakout levels. From a COT perspective, the outlook remains constructive for CADJPY. On the CAD side, Commercials are showing a renewed increase in net long exposure, while JPY positioning continues to reflect structural weakness, leaving the market exposed to further carry-driven flows. January seasonality reinforces this setup: historically, the Japanese yen tends to underperform during this month, while the Canadian dollar shows relative stability, creating a favorable backdrop for a bullish continuation after potential pullbacks. On the FX sentiment side, retail positioning is heavily skewed to the short side (above 70%), providing a clear contrarian signal. The majority of market participants remain positioned against the prevailing trend, increasing the probability of continuation once weak hands are flushed out. In summary, CADJPY remains medium-term bullish, with a preference for long exposure on pullbacks into daily demand. Only a decisive and confirmed break below 111.00 would invalidate the constructive scenario and require a reassessment of the directional bias.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
7
EURUSD at a Turning Point: Bull Trap Rally Into SupplyRight now, EURUSD is trading within a very clean daily structure, where price is essentially “compressed” between two major forces: a higher-timeframe supply zone overhead and a strong daily demand zone below. After the latest bearish leg, price is rotating back toward the lower side of the range again, and this is exactly the type of area where institutional money makes real decisions: either defend demand and rotate higher, or break the base and trigger continuation into deeper liquidity. From a pure price action perspective, the market is not trending aggressively at the moment, it’s transitioning, and transition phases are where traders either catch their best trades… or get chopped if they force entries too early. On the daily chart, the most important element is the major demand area below current price, which has already acted as a pivot for bullish rotations in the past. This zone is not just a generic “support”: it’s a real liquidity pocket where buyers previously stepped in with enough strength to reverse momentum. Price is now revisiting that same area again after rejecting the upper side of the structure, and the reaction here will likely define the directional flow over the next 1–3 weeks. Above, the chart shows a well-defined supply zone sitting under a descending trendline. This creates a classic “sell-the-rally” environment, unless the market proves otherwise through a clear daily reversal sequence. Technically, the current downside move looks more like a controlled retracement than panic selling. Price is bleeding lower into demand, and that usually opens two scenarios: the first is a rotation long from demand back into the mid-range/premium area, and the second is a “fake bounce” that fails under resistance and leads to a bearish breakdown continuation. The projected path on the chart highlights exactly this concept: a potential rebound into the grey zone (where sellers can re-enter), followed by a deeper push lower if bulls fail to reclaim structure. From an RSI perspective, the market is pushing into oversold territory on the daily, which supports the idea that selling at these levels may be “late.” Oversold doesn’t mean “buy immediately,” but it does increase the probability of a bounce, especially when it aligns with a demand zone. Looking at positioning, the COT picture is sending a key message: the Euro side is not positioned as a strong bullish story right now. In the Euro FX report, Large Speculators remain net long, but positioning is not extreme and the longer-term COT index is still relatively depressed. This suggests EUR is not in a “crowded long” state that would fuel an explosive bullish continuation. On the USD side, the COT index is higher, signaling that the market still holds a structural bias toward USD strength. This combination supports the idea that any EURUSD upside is more likely to be corrective/rotational, rather than the start of a new macro bull trend — unless price breaks and holds above the key daily supply. Seasonality adds another layer: EURUSD in January often shows choppy and mixed performance early in the month, with direction becoming clearer later on. Finally, FX sentiment shows around 60% of retail traders currently long EURUSD, versus 40% short. This isn’t an extreme reading, but it still leans toward a classic contrarian interpretation: retail is already positioned for upside while price remains in a technically vulnerable area. From an execution standpoint, this means that if EURUSD bounces from demand, it can still be a valid long, but it should be treated as a tactical long, not a “buy and hold” narrative. And if the bounce fails under resistance, sentiment positioning can amplify the downside move as late longs get trapped. At this stage, my bias is neutral with a slight bearish tilt on the broader picture, but bullish for a short-term rotation if demand prints a strong and credible daily reaction. The key is not predicting direction, it’s reacting to confirmation at the most important location on the chart.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
GBPNZD: Retail Is 68% Long…GBPNZD is trading around 2.3269 and after the strong rally we’ve seen, this feels like a zone where price may “breathe” a bit before the next move. In simple terms: we’re already high, so this is not the best place to chase a fresh long. Around this area (roughly 2.33–2.35), the market usually does one of two things: either it breaks and keeps running, or it delivers a classic “messy move” where it first flushes late buyers and then continues higher. My base case is the second scenario: a pullback first, with a move down into the 2.305–2.300 zone, which is the most logical area where real buying interest could step in. I still like the GBP-stronger-than-NZD idea. The COT positioning supports that NZD is structurally weaker than GBP, so even if we get a short-term drop, I don’t see it as a trend reversal, more like a reset before the next leg. Seasonality also helps the bias: January tends to be mildly supportive for GBP, while NZD doesn’t really shine in this period. That’s why, in my view, any aggressive short from here is only a tactical pullback trade, not something I’d want to hold as a long-term bearish swing idea. One more key point: retail sentiment is already heavily skewed long (around 68% long). And when the crowd is stacked on one side, the market often pulls a fake move first, shaking people out, hitting stops, and only then delivering the clean continuation. That’s exactly why I’d rather not buy up here. Plan: I’m treating this area as “sell to buy lower.” Either price rejects from here and pulls back into 2.305–2.300, or I stay patient and wait for price to reach that zone and show confirmation before looking for a long with better upside and less stress. The only thing that would invalidate the pullback idea is strong acceptance above the 2.345–2.35 area, because if price holds above that zone, it’s not pulling back… it’s simply continuing.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
2
USDCHF: Retail Overcrowded Long While Price Rejects SupplyUSDCHF is currently sitting in a highly sensitive technical area, where multiple high-probability factors are converging: a Daily supply zone, a descending trendline acting as dynamic resistance, an unbalanced retail sentiment, and a seasonal backdrop that often supports corrective moves. In this type of environment, I’m not interested in blindly anticipating the move—I want price to confirm weakness first, because when the market rejects supply while sentiment is already overcrowded, the rotation can become clean and fast. Daily Chart – Structure & Key Levels On the Daily chart, USDCHF has delivered a strong rebound from recent lows, but it is now losing momentum as it pushes into a major supply area around 0.8000–0.8040. This is not a “random” resistance zone: it’s an area where sellers previously reacted aggressively and where distribution often takes place. The most important detail is that price is testing this supply while also reacting to a descending trendline, which has been acting as a dynamic ceiling. When supply and trendline resistance align in the same area, the probability of a reaction increases significantly: either the market absorbs supply and breaks higher with conviction, or it rejects and rotates back to the downside. COT – Swiss Franc Positioning (Smart Money) According to the COT report, Non-Commercials are heavily net short CHF. From a practical trading perspective, this means large speculators are meaningfully positioned against the Swiss Franc, which generally supports a broader CHF weakness narrative. Seasonality – January Context USDCHF shows a historical tendency to experience phases of weakness, and January in particular tends to be more “bearish” across multiple time windows. Seasonality alone is never enough, but when it aligns with a Daily supply zone and extreme retail sentiment, it becomes an additional probability layer supporting a bearish rotation. FX Sentiment (Retail) – Strong Contrarian Signal Currently, 78% of traders are LONG USDCHF, while only 22% are short. This is exactly the type of imbalance that, from a contrarian perspective, often precedes a move in the opposite direction. When retail is heavily long right as price reaches resistance/supply, the market often: sweeps liquidity above the highs traps late buyers then sells off with a sharp bearish rotation That’s why this area is particularly interesting: sentiment is clearly one-sided, and price is sitting at a technically meaningful reversal location.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
7
Where Is Oil Heading To ? - /CL Analysis 1) Technical Perspective: Support & Resistance ~$65 was a support zone earlier (2021–2024). In 2025–26, that $65 area now often acts as resistance. Prices have come down toward $55 2) Fundamental Drivers Behind the Downtrend Oil has been in a multi-year decline from the highs seen in 2022 after the Russia–Ukraine war spike. A combination of oversupply and weaker demand has kept price pressure on: • 2025 saw a large annual price drop due to persistent oversupply and slow demand. • EIA and IEA reports project global oil supply continuing to exceed demand into 2026. This structural oversupply (positive global inventories) pushes the short-term bias lower unless demand surprises on the upside. 3) Geopolitical Drivers — Including Venezuela Recent news confirms that geopolitics remain a key wild card: The U.S. has taken actions around Venezuelan oil assets and plans to export Venezuelan crude, which could add supply and weigh on prices, especially if revitalisation occurs. Oil prices did tick up short-term on inventory draws and Venezuela focus, but long-term gains from Venezuelan production may be limited because infrastructure will take years to rebuild. Geopolitical tensions can spike oil temporarily, but unless supply physically tightens, the structure stays bearish. 4) OPEC / OPEC+ Decisions OPEC’s recent behaviour has been a big driver: In 2025, OPEC+ unwound production cuts, which contributed to oversupply and lower prices. For 2026: The OPEC+ view has shifted toward equilibrium, but global supply growth still challenges prices. If OPEC+ cuts output further or extends cuts, prices could find stronger support around current levels ($55–$65). If OPEC+ maintains or increases production while demand stays soft, that supports a drop toward $45–$50. So OPEC policy is one of the most important catalysts, it fundamentally shifts supply. 5) Demand Risks & Macro Conditions Global demand remains under pressure: Chinese economic weakness and slower global growth reduce oil demand. And EIA forecasts oversupply growth in 2026. Lower demand growth + abundant supply = structural downside risk. 6) Link to US Dollar, Inflation & Rates Higher real rates / stronger USD → oil tends to weaken: Oil is USD-denominated. A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies. Tight monetary policy (higher rates) can slow economic growth and demand for oil. Lower real rates / weaker USD → oil tends to strengthen: Cheaper USD can support crude prices if demand fundamentals improve. Right now, with US economic strength and mixed inflation data elsewhere, it’s not certain the Fed will aggressively cut. If inflation re-accelerates and the Fed resists rate cuts or even raises, that could strengthen the USD and pressure oil lower. However, if the Fed eases later, weaker real rates could help commodities broadly, but oil’s supply/demand story still matters more. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Asset prices, valuations, and performance metrics are subject to change and may be outdated. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. The information presented may contain inaccuracies and should not be solely relied upon for financial decisions. I am not a licensed financial advisor or professional trader. I am not personally liable for your own losses; this is not financial advice.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by bossout10
17
USDJPY – Structural Bullish ContinuationUSDJPY remains structurally bullish on the daily timeframe, with price continuing to respect an ascending channel that has been intact since Q4. The recent consolidation phase above prior daily demand has allowed the market to absorb supply without breaking structure, confirming strong underlying demand pressure. From a price action perspective, the pair is printing higher lows within the channel, while the most recent impulsive leg has reclaimed the mid-range equilibrium, suggesting continuation rather than distribution. The current pullback scenario appears corrective and controlled, with no signs of structural weakness as long as price holds above the daily demand zone around 154.50–155.00. From a COT standpoint, non-commercials remain net long Japanese Yen futures, but recent changes show a reduction in long exposure rather than aggressive short building. This typically aligns with trend continuation phases in USDJPY, especially when paired with rising open interest on USD Index futures, signaling sustained USD strength rather than exhaustion. Retail sentiment remains heavily skewed to the short side, with approximately 78% of traders positioned against the move. This persistent bearish crowd positioning acts as a contrarian fuel, increasing the probability of further upside expansion as stops remain above recent highs. From a seasonality perspective, January historically favors USDJPY strength, with positive average performance across 5, 10, and 20-year datasets. While short-term volatility is expected mid-month, the broader seasonal bias supports continuation rather than reversal. Conclusion: As long as price holds above the daily demand zone and maintains channel structure, USDJPY remains a buy-on-dips market. Upside targets remain aligned with the upper channel resistance and the 160.50–161.50 supply zone, where profit-taking and structural reassessment become relevant.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
8
EUR/USD – When COT, Seasonality and Price Action Align BearishPrice has completed a bullish impulsive leg and reached a key daily supply zone around 1.1780–1.1800, where a clean and well-structured bearish reaction developed. The break of the ascending channel, followed by a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, confirms a daily structure shift. Price is now rotating lower toward an initial intermediate demand area at 1.1620–1.1580, a technically relevant zone where a corrective bounce is statistically possible. However, the main liquidity magnet remains the deeper daily demand at 1.1560–1.1500, still unmitigated and representing the primary bearish extension scenario. The technical bias remains short as long as price stays below the 1.1720–1.1740 resistance area. 2. COT Report – EUR vs USD On EURO FX futures (CME), Commercials remain heavily net short, consistent with a distribution phase following the recent rally. Non-Commercials are still net long, but without meaningful expansion, a typical configuration near a medium-term top. On the U.S. Dollar Index, Commercials maintain a structural net long position, while Non-Commercials are gradually reducing short exposure. This positioning supports the view of a USD stabilization phase, aligning with a broader corrective bearish continuation on EUR/USD. 3. Seasonality Historical seasonality shows that January is on average a weak month for EUR/USD, particularly during the second half of the month. After an initial sideways phase, the pair statistically tends to develop downside pressure, with lows often printed between mid and late January. This seasonal pattern favors short continuation or sell-on-rallies scenarios, rather than fresh bullish expansions. 4. Retail Sentiment Retail sentiment shows a majority of long positions (around 54%), while price continues to move lower. This classic price–sentiment divergence reinforces the bearish bias, suggesting the market is moving against the retail crowd, as typically observed during directional corrective phases.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
5
GBP/USD Daily: Bullish Structure IntactGBP/USD remains embedded within a well-defined bullish structure, characterized by higher highs and higher lows and supported by an ascending channel in place since the November lows. Following the strong December bullish impulse, price is currently consolidating below a key daily supply zone between 1.3500 and 1.3600, an area that has previously triggered profit-taking and bearish reactions. The ongoing pullback is developing in an orderly manner, with no structural breakdowns so far, and is guiding price back toward a daily demand / equilibrium zone between 1.3350 and 1.3400, which aligns with the mid-range of the channel and former broken highs. As long as price holds above this area, the structural bias remains constructively bullish, with scope for continuation toward range highs and a potential extension into the 1.3700–1.3800 area. A clean and confirmed loss of the daily demand zone would invalidate the medium-term bullish scenario. COT Report (British Pound & USD Index) The COT data on British Pound futures still reflects a mixed but improving picture. Non-Commercials remain net short; however, a reduction in short positions compared to previous weeks suggests that speculative bearish pressure is gradually being absorbed. On the USD Index side, Non-Commercials maintain a net short exposure, while Commercials continue to increase long hedging activity, pointing to a structurally fragile US dollar in the medium term. The combination of a stabilizing GBP and a still-weak USD continues to support a bullish underlying scenario for GBP/USD, particularly on controlled pullbacks. Seasonality January seasonality for GBP/USD shows a generally positive historical bias, especially during the second half of the month, with stronger performance when price follows a consolidation phase after a prior bullish impulse. Current price action aligns well with this historical pattern: a pause, liquidity absorption, and the potential for renewed upside later in the month, in line with macro conditions and positioning. Sentiment (Retail Positioning) Retail sentiment is currently balanced (50% long / 50% short), a neutral condition that reduces the risk of aggressive contrarian signals. Such a distribution typically favors cleaner directional moves, especially when supported by a coherent technical structure and macro backdrop. The absence of excessive retail positioning strengthens the view that any downside moves are more likely corrective rather than the start of a genuine bearish trend. Operational Conclusion (Bias) Medium-term bullish bias, with a preference for buy-the-dip opportunities around the daily demand zone. As long as price holds above 1.3350–1.3400, the bullish continuation toward 1.3600 and potentially 1.3700 remains valid. A cautious approach is warranted near supply, with aggressive positioning only upon clear structural confirmation.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
5
EURCAD: Smart Money Trap LoadingMacro / COT The latest COT data paints an interesting picture: EUR – Non-Commercials remain heavily net-long, and long exposure continues to increase. This indicates that a large portion of speculative capital is already positioned to the upside. CAD – Commercials are accumulating long exposure, while Non-Commercials are reducing longs and adding shorts. From a Smart Money perspective, when commercials accumulate, they historically tend to anticipate medium-term reversals. This increases the probability that EURCAD is entering a distribution phase. Seasonality Historically, January is not supportive for the Euro. Multi-timeframe seasonality data (2–20 years) shows a negative tendency during the early part of the year. This reinforces a medium-term bearish bias, especially after technical relief rallies. Retail Sentiment Currently, 73% of retail traders are SHORT EURCAD. Such an extreme imbalance increases the probability of a temporary bullish squeeze, often used to clean weak retail shorts before the real directional move takes place. In other words: bullish spike first → potential bearish reversal afterwards. Price Action — Daily Chart On the daily chart, price is trading inside a descending channel and bouncing from lower demand, moving toward a key supply area between 1.6180 – 1.6250. The technical structure suggests: 1️⃣ Potential push higher into supply 2️⃣ Reaction and shift in structure 3️⃣ Targets around 1.6000 – 1.6030 RSI confirms weak momentum on rallies — an ideal context to sell a deep retracement rather than chase breakouts. Key Levels Sell Zone: 1.6180 – 1.6250 Target: 1.6030 → extension 1.5980 Invalidation: Daily close above 1.6300 This scenario remains valid as long as price does not structurally break above the supply block.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
11
EURGBP | Retail 80% Long: Selling the RallyOn the daily timeframe, EURGBP continues to move inside a well-defined descending channel. The latest bearish impulse pushed price directly into the 0.865–0.860 demand zone, where we’re seeing an initial technical reaction — but still no clear signs of a full reversal. RSI is hovering near oversold territory, which increases the probability of a corrective bounce. However, as long as price stays below the 0.872–0.878 supply area, the dominant bias remains bearish. The COT report provides a more structural perspective: institutional traders remain net long EUR and net short GBP, meaning that — in the medium term — the broader context still favors a bullish EURGBP. However, in recent weeks we’ve noticed: • a slowdown in the growth of EUR long positions • early signs of short covering on GBP This does not invalidate the EUR>GBP narrative, but it does suggest that the euro’s advantage is weakening. Seasonality in January is historically slightly negative for EURGBP: the month often starts with weakness and only stabilizes later. This is consistent with the current downside move. Retail sentiment, on the other hand, is extremely skewed: more than 80% of retail traders are long EURGBP. From a contrarian perspective, this supports the idea of further downside. Overall picture suggests: • bearish technical structure • COT still pro-EUR, but losing momentum • unfavorable seasonality • retail heavily exposed on the long side For that reason, I currently treat EURGBP as a “sell the rally” market: any rebounds into 0.872–0.878 (or mid-channel) may offer short setups with potential targets: → 0.860 → 0.855 → and, in extension, deeper liquidity pockets below The bearish bias would be invalidated only by a daily close above 0.880–0.882, especially if supported by renewed COT strength and an improvement in sentiment.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
9
GOLD | Pullback in the making? Watching the FVG and demand zoneGold continues to trade inside a well-defined bullish channel on the daily chart, but the last vertical expansion has created vulnerability to deeper pullbacks. The strong impulse followed by rejection signals profit-taking and a potential transition from momentum phase to corrective phase. In the short term, price may complete a technical bounce toward the midline of the channel, before potentially rotating lower into the Fair Value Gap around 4.240–4.260. A breakdown below this area would open room toward lower demand zones, aligned with previous institutional order flow still unmitigated. RSI has exited overbought territory, indicating waning momentum and consistent with a trend-normalization phase. Positioning: The COT report shows Non-Commercials increasing long exposure, supporting a medium-term structural bullish bias. However, the simultaneous expansion of shorts highlights growing hedging activity and the potential for corrective volatility. Seasonality for January historically shows positive average performance, but often after interim drawdowns — reinforcing the idea of a technical pullback before any renewed extension higher. Retail sentiment remains predominantly long. Typically, when most traders are positioned in the same direction, the probability of contrarian moves increases, adding weight to the short-term downside scenario. Trading bias: Medium-term bullish, but preference remains for entries on deeper pullbacks into value areas rather than chasing late breakouts. Key levels: • 4.560 — upper channel resistance • 4.260 — FVG and first liquidity zone • 4.170-4.200 — intermediate demand • 4.000-4.070 — primary strategic demand zone Plan: Wait for a retracement into marked zones and look for clear accumulation patterns and bullish re-engulfing confirmations before considering new long positions.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by EdgeTradingJourney
2
NZD/USD Daily: Corrective Bounce Toward Key SupplyBase bias: short-term corrective upside → potential sell zone higher. Macro context: the USD remains supported by institutional positioning and a resilient US macro backdrop, while NZD continues to look vulnerable. 1️⃣ Technical Structure (Daily) Price reacted strongly from the daily demand area (blue zone) after filling part of the prior impulse. A higher low has formed and price is currently trading inside/around a fair value gap (FVG) aligned with the ascending trendline. A continuation toward the 0.5840–0.5880 supply zone remains possible. As long as price holds above 0.5720–0.5740, the corrective recovery remains intact; a breakdown below that area increases the probability of a move back toward prior lows. RSI is recovering from weakness, consistent with a corrective bounce rather than a confirmed structural reversal. 2️⃣ COT (Commitments of Traders) USD Index: non-commercials remain broadly positioned pro-USD / short NZD. Recent flows show renewed support for the dollar. NZD Futures: non-commercials remain significantly net short. The recent uptick in longs is marginal compared with the broader bearish imbalance. Overall, institutional positioning continues to suggest medium-term downside pressure on NZD. Rallies into key supply zones are more likely to be sell opportunities. 3️⃣ Retail Sentiment Retail traders are ~64% long NZD/USD. Historically, persistent retail long skew often precedes contrarian downside moves. 4️⃣ Seasonality January has historically been weak to neutral-weak for NZD/USD, with average returns below other months and wide variability. Seasonality does not support a sustained bullish trend and aligns more with a temporary bounce followed by renewed selling pressure.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
4
GBPUSD – Daily Bullish Channel While Specs Stay ShortOn the daily chart GBPUSD is still respecting a clear bullish channel from the November lows. Price just reacted from a previous imbalance / FVG around 1.34 and is consolidating inside a broader supply zone, but structure remains constructive as long as we hold the mid–lower part of the channel. 1. Daily structure After the October–November selloff, GBPUSD has been making higher highs and higher lows inside an ascending channel. Current price is trading around the mid-range of that channel, with a small pullback into the daily FVG / demand around 1.3360–1.3430. As long as daily closes hold above this block and the lower trendline, the path of least resistance remains to the upside, with room into the higher supply layers between 1.3550–1.3600 and above. 2. COT data (GBP & USD Index) GBP futures: non-commercials are still net short, but they have started to cover shorts (short positions decreasing while longs tick higher). This suggests the pain trade is still to the upside if price continues to grind higher. Commercials are net long GBP, which fits with accumulation into prior lows. USD Index futures: specs are slightly net short USD, which reinforces a softer-USD backdrop and supports a bullish bias on GBPUSD as long as risk sentiment does not deteriorate sharply. 3. Seasonality Seasonality on GBPUSD shows that recent years (5–10Y and especially 2Y) tend to favour mild GBP strength into late December / early January, while the very long-term average is more neutral. I interpret this as a supportive, but not decisive, tailwind: seasonality aligns with the current bullish structure but is not a stand-alone signal. 4. Sentiment Retail traders are slightly net short into a rising market – a contrarian bullish signal, but not yet at an extreme. This fits with the idea of buying dips while the crowd tries to fade the trend.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
9
EURUSD: Extended rally into daily supplyOver the past few weeks, EURUSD has continued to extend higher, pushing deep into a daily supply zone that overlaps with a previous distribution area. The ascending channel is still intact, but I’m starting to see some loss of momentum and the first signs of selling pressure within the 1.1780–1.1850 range. On the daily chart, price has left a potential imbalance open, with a more interesting demand structure sitting between 1.1700 and 1.1650. If recent lows are taken out, I would expect price to rotate back into that zone to fill liquidity and test buyer strength. Only a clean break and hold above 1.1850 would invalidate the corrective scenario and reopen the path toward higher highs. The COT data shows: Non-commercials remain net long on the euro, but positioning is not increasing as aggressively as in previous months. On the Dollar Index, non-commercials still hold a meaningful short exposure, but they’ve been gradually reducing it. In my view, this suggests a market that may have already priced in much of the pro-euro bias, creating room for a short-term technical reset. Seasonality Historically, December tends to be positive for EURUSD, but the final part of the month often brings volatility and rebalancing flows — consistent with the idea of a pullback before any renewed extension. Retail sentiment Current sentiment shows roughly 81% of retail traders short. Typically, that’s a contrarian bullish signal. However, given that we’re trading inside supply and the structure is stretched, I interpret it as the uptrend is still alive, but the risk of a corrective phase is increasing. Invalidation This corrective view is invalidated with daily closes above 1.1850 and strong continuation inside the channel.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
5
EURCAD: Pullback First, Then Potential BreakdownSeasonality shows that EUR tends to be moderately bullish in December, especially when looking at 5–10 year horizons, while CAD typically experiences mild weakness during the same period and historically regains strength between January and February. In the short term, this means seasonality favors EUR over CAD, but as we move into the new year the balance shifts toward CAD appreciation. This creates a favorable environment for waiting on technical pullbacks first and then looking for selling opportunities at higher levels. Retail sentiment currently shows roughly 54% short positions versus 46% long, indicating that positioning is not extreme, yet traders are slightly biased to the short side. Historically, when retail is predominantly short, price tends to remain supported for a while before eventually reversing. As a result, there may still be room for bullish retracements in the very short term, although this does not change the broader bearish context. From a COT perspective, speculators appear to be covering CAD short exposure, which is supportive for CAD in the medium term, while EUR is attracting additional long interest but not at extreme levels. Overall, this suggests that upside in EURCAD is likely limited and the risk of a medium-term reversal remains elevated. Technically, price is trading within a descending channel that has been respected multiple times and is currently testing a demand zone, which may generate a short-term reaction. RSI has not yet completed a full bullish divergence, indicating that one more bounce remains possible, while the daily structure continues to print lower highs and lower lows. A potential rebound toward the 1.6120–1.6150 area, where former support may now act as supply, would allow the market to retest structure before resuming the dominant downtrend.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
3