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GBP/NZD: Smart Money Flows Back Into Sterling🔹 COT (Commitment of Traders) British Pound (GBP) Non-commercial longs: 84,500 (+3,704) Non-commercial shorts: 86,464 (−912) → Institutions increased long exposure and trimmed shorts → signaling renewed bullish interest in the pound. New Zealand Dollar (NZD) Non-commercial longs: 12,295 (+3,044) Non-commercial shorts: 33,415 (+6,160) → Both positions increased, but the stronger rise in shorts suggests a bearish institutional sentiment on the NZD. Institutional flow supports GBP strength and NZD weakness → overall bullish bias on GBP/NZD. 🔹 FX Sentiment (Retail Positioning) 69% short / 31% long 📌 Retail traders are heavily short — a contrarian bullish signal aligned with the COT positioning. 🔹 Seasonality British Pound (GBP): October is historically neutral to slightly positive (+0.2% to +0.4% on average over 5–10 years). New Zealand Dollar (NZD): October shows mild positivity in the short term (2–5 years) but turns neutral/negative over 10–20 years. 📌 Seasonal takeaway: slight divergence, but GBP retains the upper hand in the medium term. 🔹 Price Action Price remains within a rising channel, testing the dynamic support around 2.3050–2.3100. After a pullback from the 2.3450–2.3550 supply zone, price is now reacting from the channel’s lower boundary. RSI is neutral but showing potential for a technical rebound. 🎯 Main Scenario: A pullback around 2.3100–2.3150 could provide a new long opportunity toward 2.3500–2.3600, with extension to 2.3800. ⚙️ Invalidation: daily close below 2.2950. 🔹 Trading Outlook Primary Bias: Bullish Confluences: COT → Institutions long GBP, short NZD Sentiment → Retail excessively short = contrarian long Seasonality → Favors GBP Price Action → Rising channel structure still valid 🎯 Technical Target: 2.3500 → 2.3800 🚫 Invalidation: below 2.2950
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
7
EUR/JPY: Smart Money Turns to the Yen🔹 COT (Commitment of Traders) Euro (EUR) Non-commercial longs: 252,472 (−789) Non-commercial shorts: 138,127 (+2,625) → Institutional traders slightly reduced longs and added shorts → signaling mild weakening momentum on the euro. Japanese Yen (JPY) Non-commercial longs: 176,400 (+14,727) Non-commercial shorts: 96,900 (−3,362) → Sharp increase in longs and notable short covering → bullish flow into the yen, reflecting potential medium-term strength. Combined Interpretation: COT confirms a bearish bias on EUR/JPY, with euro weakness and increasing yen demand. 🔹 FX Sentiment (Retail Positioning) 83% short / 17% long Retail traders are heavily short — a contrarian signal that may trigger a short-term bounce, though the broader macro backdrop still favors the yen. 🔹 Seasonality Historically, October tends to be neutral to slightly positive for EUR/JPY over 5–10 years (+0.5% on average), while 15–20-year data shows a mild negative tendency (around −0.6%). Seasonal takeaway: neutral bias, with correction risk if yen strength persists. 🔹 Price Action Price is consolidating below 176.00 after a sharp rejection from the 177.50–178.00 supply zone. The technical structure shows lower highs, with the ascending trendline now at risk of breaking. RSI remains neutral but losing momentum. 🎯 Main Scenario: A break below 175.30–175.00 would open space toward 173.50, then 171.80. Invalidation: daily close above 176.50.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
7
EUR/AUD Bulls Fighting Back — Retail 76% Short!🔹 COT (Commitment of Traders) Euro (EUR): Non-commercial longs: 252,472 (−789) Non-commercial shorts: 138,127 (+2,625) → Institutional traders have trimmed long positions and increased shorts, signaling a softening bullish bias on the euro. Australian Dollar (AUD): Non-commercial longs: 41,994 (+1,718) Non-commercial shorts: 101,584 (+10,148) → Sharp increase in short exposure versus longs, reflecting renewed bearish pressure on AUD. 📊 Combined Interpretation: While the euro shows mild weakness, the Australian dollar remains under stronger institutional selling pressure. The result is a net bullish bias on EUR/AUD, though upside momentum may moderate as euro positioning cools. 🔹 FX Sentiment (Retail Positioning) 76% short / 24% long 📌 Retail traders are heavily short, providing a contrarian bullish signal for EUR/AUD. This skew supports the institutional view, hinting that short covering could drive the next bullish leg. 🔹 Seasonality EUR: October tends to be mildly negative on a 10–20 year horizon (−0.20% to −0.60%), but neutralizing into November. AUD: October is historically flat to slightly positive, though broader Q4 data favors euro recovery over commodity currencies. 📌 Seasonal Bias: Neutral-to-bullish EUR/AUD outlook — seasonality doesn’t contradict the structural bullish setup but suggests limited upside speed. 🔹 Price Action EUR/AUD remains within a broad consolidation range, oscillating between 1.7650–1.7950. The pair has recently bounced strongly from the 1.7600–1.7650 demand zone, aligning with a clean RSI rebound from oversold conditions. Currently trading near 1.7900, approaching the supply area 1.7950–1.8000, which may act as short-term resistance before any continuation move. 🎯 Scenario 1 (Preferred): Continuation higher toward 1.8000, followed by a correction back toward 1.7700 before resuming the broader bullish trend. ❌ Invalidation: Daily close below 1.7650 would invalidate the bullish bias and re-open 1.7500.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
7
NZD/CHF Setup – 94% of Retail Long While Institutions Sell Hard🔹 COT (Commitment of Traders) New Zealand Dollar (NZD): Non-commercial longs: 12,295 (+3,044) Non-commercial shorts: 33,415 (+6,160) → Institutions increased exposure on both sides, but short positions rose more aggressively, maintaining a net short stance and signaling structural weakness in the NZD. Swiss Franc (CHF): Non-commercial longs: 8,227 (+1,992) Non-commercial shorts: 31,245 (−1,030) → A solid reduction in shorts and rise in longs, indicating a renewed bullish interest in the Swiss franc. 📊 Combined Interpretation: Institutional flow clearly favors CHF strength and NZD weakness, confirming a bearish bias on NZD/CHF. 🔹 FX Sentiment (Retail Positioning) 94% long / 6% short 📌 Retail traders are heavily long, a strong contrarian bearish signal. This imbalance highlights the risk of further downside, perfectly aligned with the institutional view. 🔹 Seasonality NZD: October shows mildly positive performance over 5–10 years, but weakness across 15–20 years → a short-term neutral-to-bullish but uncertain context. CHF: October is historically positive across all time horizons (5–20 years), with average gains between +0.5% and +1.2%, confirming a seasonal bullish bias for CHF. 📌 Seasonal Conclusion: Seasonality supports a bearish outlook for NZD/CHF, consistent with both the COT and retail sentiment data. 🔹 Price Action The pair continues to trade within a well-defined descending channel. Clear bearish breakout from the 0.4660–0.4700 supply zone, followed by a strong daily close lower. Currently retracing toward 0.4620–0.4640, an area where fresh selling pressure may emerge. RSI remains neutral with no bullish divergence, confirming sustained downside momentum. Key supports: 0.4550 (TP1), 0.4500 (TP2). Resistance: 0.4660 (invalidation above 0.4680). 🎯 Base Scenario: A short-term correction toward 0.4630–0.4640 followed by renewed bearish continuation toward 0.4500. ❌ Invalidation: Daily close above 0.4680.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
7
EUR/USD Breakdown Just Starting? Institutions Loading USD Longs🔹 COT (Commitment of Traders) Euro (EUR): Non-commercial longs: 252,472 (−789) Non-commercial shorts: 138,127 (+2,625) → Hedge funds slightly trimmed their long exposure while adding to shorts, signaling a loss of bullish momentum on the euro. US Dollar Index (DXY): Non-commercial longs: 14,032 (+1,541) Non-commercial shorts: 24,376 (−1,009) → Positioning shows a clear strengthening of the dollar, as speculators close shorts and increase longs. 📊 Interpretation: Institutional flow remains decisively in favor of the USD, reflecting renewed dollar strength and moderate euro weakness — keeping a bearish bias on EUR/USD in the short term. 🔹 FX Sentiment 50% long / 50% short 📌 The market is perfectly balanced, showing no contrarian extremes at the moment. However, this neutral sentiment after weeks of long dominance indicates a shift in retail perception, likely preceding a consolidation phase before another bearish leg. 🔹 Seasonality Based on Market Bulls historical data for EUR/USD: October has historically been negative, with average declines between −0.20% and −0.60% across 10–20 year datasets. Seasonality improves from November onward, but October remains a period of weakness for the euro. 📌 Conclusion: The seasonal context is bearish, aligning with institutional positioning and current price structure. 🔹 Price Action EUR/USD has broken the ascending trendline from August and is now consolidating below the 1.1750–1.1800 supply zone, strongly rejected earlier this month. The pair trades inside a descending channel, with key support at 1.1550–1.1500 and resistance near 1.1720–1.1750. The RSI is neutral but showing bearish divergence, hinting at a possible short-term pullback before the next leg lower. 🎯 Base scenario: a corrective bounce toward 1.1700–1.1750, followed by renewed downside pressure targeting 1.1450, with potential extension to 1.1380. ❌ Invalidation: Daily close above 1.1780.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
4
Crude Oil Outlook: Pressure Mounts as 2025 Lows Come Into ViewCrude oil prices are tracing another plunge back to yearly lows amid mounting oversupply, weak demand, and tariff concerns. New 2025 lows may be reached in the short-term horizon, aligning with the lower boundaries of a 3-year down trending channel From a weekly time frame perspective, crude oil is facing the lower border of a three-year descending channel extending from the 2022 highs. The $55 support currently holds as the 2025 low, but a clean break below it could extend losses toward the $49 zone, aligning with the channel’s bottom boundary — a potential area of support. If this level fails, a deeper selloff could extend toward the $37 region. On the upside, should prices recover above the $58 mark, a bullish rebound may extend toward $60, $63, and $66, respectively. However, for a sustainable bullish outlook on crude, a breakout above both the three-year downtrend and the $70 resistance is required. Looking closely at the daily RSI, it is nearing oversold levels last seen in April 2025, suggesting that downside momentum could be approaching exhaustion. In line with the recent movements of U.S. indices, will we see another dip-and-rebound scenario on crude oil — not identical, but perhaps reminiscent of April 2025? - Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
FOREXCOM:USOIL
by FOREXcom
Brent Crude - The BEAR still rules!Price just can’t catch a break. We’ve got a broken uptrend, a clear inverse cup and handle, and price trading below both the 20MA and 200MA – the classic “sell the rallies” setup. As long as we stay under that red downtrend line, the bias is simple: down. Target sits around $54.68, with momentum showing weakness across the board. And yeah… we’ll still pay high fuel prices 😒 💸 Fundamental Reasons for Downside 🪓 Demand Destruction: Global growth is slowing — less demand for oil from major economies. Probably due to an increase in demand for EV or other alternative energy vehicles in the making? 🇨🇳 China Concerns: China’s recovery keeps disappointing, cutting one of oil’s biggest demand sources. 🪙 Strong USD: A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive globally, reducing demand. 🛢️ OPEC Uncertainty: Mixed signals and production inconsistencies are shaking investor confidence. 🏦 Interest Rates Bite: High rates are squeezing industrial output and travel – both oil consumers. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATIONSB:BRENTShort
by Timonrosso
EUR/AUD Ready for Another Drop? Watch 1.7500!🔹 COT (Commitment of Traders) Euro Futures: Non-commercial longs slightly decreased (-789) while shorts increased (+2,625) → mild bearish sentiment on the Euro. AUD Futures: Non-commercial longs increased (+1,718) while shorts surged strongly (+10,148) → clear bearish positioning on the Australian Dollar. 📌 Combined Interpretation: Mixed signals — institutional investors are trimming Euro longs while heavily increasing AUD shorts, which could sustain EUR/AUD strength in the short term despite mild Euro weakness. 🔹 FX Sentiment (retail positioning) 56% short vs 44% long. 📌 Retail slightly net short → mild contrarian signal supporting short-term upside for EUR/AUD, but not extreme enough to indicate a reversal. 🔹 Seasonality October is historically neutral to slightly bullish for the Australian Dollar, suggesting potential resilience. However, Euro tends to gain modestly into late Q4, often supported by defensive flows. 📌 Seasonal bias leans slightly bearish for EUR/AUD in October, but momentum remains fragile and can easily flip on macro catalysts. 🔹 Price Action EUR/AUD rejected from the 1.7920–1.7950 supply zone, confirming a descending channel structure. Price bounced from the local support around 1.7660–1.7680, with sellers still in control below the upper trendline. RSI neutral, showing potential for continuation lower after a minor corrective pullback. Key downside target remains at 1.7500, followed by 1.7400 extension if momentum persists. Bullish invalidation only above 1.7930, which would confirm a breakout from the descending channel. 🔹 Trading Outlook Main Bias: Bearish short-term, supported by technical rejection and macro weakness in the Euro. Contrarian Risk: Slightly short retail exposure could trigger a corrective bounce before the next leg down. Key Levels: Resistance: 1.7800 / 1.7930 Support: 1.7600 / 1.7500 / 1.7400
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
4
CADJPY Set for October Crash? Institutions Bet Big on Yen 📊 Multi-Factor Analysis – CADJPY COT Data JPY: Net long positions are strongly increasing → Non-Commercial long +14.7K, Commercial long +12K. Institutional flows favor the Yen, confirming a bullish bias on JPY. CAD: Heavy liquidation → Commercial longs -49K, shorts -59K, Non-Commercial longs decreasing (-2.9K). Net positioning shows bearish sentiment on CAD, with a clear prevalence of short exposure among speculators. 👉 Interpretation: Institutional flows point toward a strong JPY and weak CAD → bearish bias on CADJPY. Seasonality CAD: Historically weak in October (negative averages in 20Y and 15Y, worsening in 5Y and 2Y). JPY: Historically strong in October, especially on short-term frames (5Y and 2Y very bullish). 👉 Interpretation: Seasonality supports a bearish scenario on CADJPY during October. Retail Sentiment 90% Long vs 10% Short on CADJPY. 👉 Extreme retail long positioning = contrarian bearish signal → potential for further downside pressure. Technical Analysis CADJPY broke below the descending trendline. Currently trading inside the weekly demand zone (105–106), acting as short-term support. RSI oversold → likely technical bounce toward 106.8–107.2 (supply + trendline) before continuation lower. Primary structure remains bearish, with medium-term targets at 104.80–105.00.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
7
USOIL continues to decline on oversupply concerns Oil prices tumbled on oversupply fears as major producers ramped up output. Reuters reported that ahead of the OPEC+ meeting on October 5th, November production hikes could exceed the planned 137,000 barrels per day. The resumption of Kurdish oil exports and prospects of additional supply may further pressure prices. USOIL extended its decline before consolidating within the 61.50–63.00 range. The death cross of the EMAs points to a potential shift toward bearish momentum. If USOIL breaks below the 61.50 support, the price could retreat toward 60.00. Conversely, if USOIL breaks above the 63.00 resistance, the price may advance toward 65.50.
TVC:USOIL
by inkicho_exness
Crude Oil Pivot at $65 | Break & Hold Fuels UptrendLast Sunday Opec+ agrees further oil output boost by 137K barrels per day, but less than Sep / Aug output, when market open it went higher. How to manage short-term risk, in this case opportunity with CME Group weekly energy options on such a scheduled announcement? Video version: Crude Oil Futures & Options Ticker: CL Minimum fluctuation: 0.01 per barrel = $10.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by konhow
Crude Oil Eyes 4-Month Consolidation BreakoutOil prices have been consolidating within a triangle formation since the June 2025 high, which was triggered by the Israel–Iran escalation. Price action has traced a sequence of lower highs and higher lows, holding above the critical $61 support. With five legs unfolding inside the triangle, a potential bullish breakout could take shape if the price holds above $64, opening the door toward: $66.80, $67.70, and $70.20, which aligns with the upper boundary of a long-term descending channel from 2022 A confirmed break above $70.20 could shift the long-term trend, transitioning from consolidation to a potential bullish reversal. From the downside: Failure to hold above $61 could see a retest of the 2025 lows, with key support levels at: $60.20, $59.20, $58.00. Key events: • FOMC meeting – Wednesday • Ukraine-Russia refinery attacks • Demand vs OPEC unwinds Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
FOREXCOM:USOIL
by FOREXcom
AUD/USD Ready for a Short Squeeze? COT Divergence Signals1. Retail Sentiment 73% of retail traders are short versus 27% long. Such an unbalanced positioning usually suggests short squeeze potential, as the market often moves against retail flows, especially when technical levels confirm the bias. 2. COT Report USD Index: Non-Commercials remain skewed to the short side (+18.6k short vs. +13.6k long), with a slight reduction. This indicates the dollar is losing part of its net strength. AUD Futures: Non-Commercials are heavily short (112k vs. 29k long), adding –16,930 new shorts. However, Commercials (hedgers) increased their longs (+11,908). Historically, commercials are more accurate at market turning points. This divergence may point to a bottom forming in AUD. 3. Seasonality (September) September has historically been neutral to slightly negative for AUD/USD: flat performance over 20 years, and weaker over the last 5 years. However, mid-to-late September seasonality stabilizes, setting the stage for an October recovery. Bearish pressure may start fading, leaving room for upside. 4. Technical Outlook Demand Zone: 0.6450–0.6500 has repeatedly rejected price, confirming strong support. Supply Zone: 0.6650–0.6700, recently tested, represents the first upside target. Structure: Price is printing higher lows and showing signs of a potential bullish structure shift. RSI is neutral, with no overbought signals. Possible Scenario: A short pullback into 0.6520–0.6540 before accelerating toward 0.6680–0.6700. 5. Trading Summary Bias: Moderately bullish in the short-to-medium term. Key Drivers: Extreme retail short positioning → potential squeeze. COT divergence (specs heavily short, commercials long) → possible bottom. Weak but improving seasonality. Technical structure favoring upside continuation. 👉 Bottom line: AUD/USD favors long setups, but heavy Non-Commercial short exposure implies volatility could remain elevated.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
8
USDCAD Breakdown Ahead? Seasonality & COT Divergence1. Retail Sentiment 59% short vs. 41% long: retail traders are moderately short on USD/CAD. This leaves room for a potential upside squeeze, but positioning is not extreme, so the contrarian signal remains only partial. 2. COT Report US Dollar (COT): Large Speculators net short USD (–5,558 contracts). Commercials net long USD (+6,642 contracts). → Speculators are unloading USD, pointing to structural weakness. Canadian Dollar (COT): Large Speculators net short CAD (–108,917 contracts). Commercials net long CAD (+115,041 contracts). → A classic pattern: commercials are buying CAD while speculators remain heavily short. Historically, such extreme divergence often precedes CAD appreciation phases. COT Summary: USD: weakness from speculators. CAD: commercials strongly long, speculators extremely short. → Clear divergence: potential CAD strength, bearish bias for USD/CAD. 3. Seasonality September has historically been bearish for USD/CAD: –0.37% over the last 20 years. Also negative on 10- and 2-year averages, more mixed on 5 years. The second half of the month tends to favor CAD strength. 4. Technical Outlook Supply Zone: 1.3850–1.3900 (key resistance repeatedly tested and rejected). Demand Zone: 1.3700–1.3720 (first short target), followed by 1.3600–1.3650. Structure: Strong rejection from the 1.3890 area. Lower highs forming. 50–100–200 MAs in bearish confluence. Daily rejection candle, confirming downside continuation potential. 5. Trading Plan Bias: Bearish (short USD/CAD). Setup: Short on pullbacks to 1.3840–1.3860. Target 1: 1.3720. Target 2: 1.3650. Invalidation: daily close above 1.3900. Confluences: ✔ Retail moderately short → room for squeeze, but not extreme. ✔ COT: weak USD + strong CAD commercials → bullish CAD signal. ✔ Seasonality: September historically bearish for USD/CAD. ✔ Technicals: rejection at supply + bearish structure.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
2
EUR/USD at Make-or-Break Zone: Rejection Incoming1. COT Report (Commitment of Traders) USD Index: Non-commercials (speculators) remain net short on the dollar (13,645 long vs 18,666 short). However, last week saw a slight increase in longs (+487) and a decrease in shorts (-597). This indicates a modest improvement in sentiment toward the greenback, though not yet a full reversal. Euro: Non-commercials remain heavily long (255,660 long vs 136,068 short). Yet, last week showed a reduction in longs (-2,726) and an increase in shorts (+721), suggesting profit-taking and weaker bullish conviction. 👉 Overall, the COT reflects a potential rebalancing: euro net longs are being reduced, while dollar shorts are unwinding. This aligns with a possible relative strengthening of the USD. 2. Retail Sentiment 72% of retail traders are short EUR/USD, while only 28% are long. 👉 A classic contrarian signal: when the majority is short, the risk of upside squeezes remains. However, context matters—price is near key technical resistance, which leaves room for a potential fake-out to the upside before a reversal. 3. Seasonality (September) Historically, September has been slightly positive for EUR/USD (+0.0021 average over the past 20 years). 👉 Seasonality favors a mild sideways-to-bullish bias in the early weeks of the month, with heightened volatility mid-month. 4. Technical Analysis (Chart) Price is trading around a major resistance zone (1.1750–1.1800), which has already been rejected multiple times. Structure: consolidation persists within the 1.1650–1.1750 range. Key demand lies at 1.1550–1.1600, extending down toward 1.1400 if breakdown occurs. RSI is neutral—not overbought—leaving room for directional moves. 👉 Technical setup: failure to break 1.1750 opens the risk of a retracement toward 1.1600–1.1550, and potentially 1.1400, consistent with your chart projection. Conclusion COT: euro longs unwinding, dollar shorts decreasing → tilt in favor of USD. Retail sentiment: contrarian, heavily short → risk of short-term upside spikes. Seasonality: mild positive bias in September with mid-month volatility. Technical: strong resistance at 1.1750, risk of rejection toward 1.1600–1.1550. 📌 Trading Bias : Neutral-to-bearish. In the short term, EUR/USD could test/spike above 1.1750 to hunt stops, but the medium-term outlook (COT + technicals) remains skewed toward a bearish correction into 1.1550–1.1450. Only a solid weekly breakout above 1.1800 would invalidate the short scenario.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
5
NASDAQ on the Edge: Head & Shoulders + Bearish SeptemberOn the daily chart, a clear Head & Shoulders formation has developed: left shoulder in mid-July, head in early August, and right shoulder completed at the end of August. The neckline has been broken with volatility, and price is now retesting the supply zone at 23,600–23,800. This pullback aligns with a weekly area of strong supply, suggesting a potential rejection. The projected target of the pattern points toward 22,800–22,600, an area overlapping with a key structural support. RSI shows bearish divergence and remains below the midline, reinforcing the short bias. COT Report (August 26, 2025) Non-Commercials (funds/speculators): +1,875 longs, -362 shorts → small long increase, but without strong conviction. Commercials (hedgers): -5,832 longs, -1,579 shorts → clear reduction in long exposure, less bullish protection. Net change: -5,275 longs → overall unwinding of long positioning, signaling underlying weakness. Interpretation: Speculators remain net long, but commercials significantly cut exposure, suggesting caution on further upside. Seasonality (September) Historically, September has been a negative month for NASDAQ: 10-year average: -148 pts 5-year average: -313 pts 2-year average: -804 pts The seasonal pattern supports a bearish bias, with weakness usually concentrated in the first half of the month. Synthesis & Trade Bias Technical: Bearish Head & Shoulders → target 22,800–22,600. COT: Net long reduction by commercials → bearish pressure. Seasonality: September statistically weak. ➡️ Bias: Short on NASDAQ (NQ).
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
6
GBPAUD Ready for a Breakdown?1. Retail Sentiment 62% of retail traders are long on GBPAUD, while 38% are short. Historically, retail positioning tends to be contrarian: an excess of longs often signals further downside pressure. Volume: 824 long lots vs 506 short lots → net long exposure. ➡ Bias: Contrarian short 2. COT Report GBP (August 26, 2025) Non-commercials (speculators): 76k longs vs 107k shorts → net short of -31k. Commercials: net long, but mainly for hedging purposes. Trend: large speculators are slightly increasing shorts (+866) while reducing longs (-5,302). ➡ Bias: GBP weakness AUD (August 26, 2025) Non-commercials: 28k longs vs 129k shorts → heavily net short AUD. Commercials have significantly increased long positions (+10,892). Speculators remain bearish, but defensive positioning is building up. ➡ Bias: AUD still weak, but showing early signs of stabilization 3. Seasonality (September) GBP: historically negative in September (weakness). AUD: historically shows a moderately positive trend in September, especially in the last 10 years. ➡ Bias: GBPAUD historically bearish in September 4. Technical Analysis Structure: the market rejected the 2.09 supply zone and is now consolidating within the 2.03–2.09 range. Price action suggests a possible rebound towards 2.07–2.08 before a potential breakdown towards 2.03. ➡ Technical bias: Short from supply zones at 2.07–2.08 targeting 2.04–2.03 5. Summary & Trading Scenarios Macro/COT: GBP remains weak, AUD under pressure but with accumulation signs → mixed outlook, but seasonality favors AUD. Sentiment: retail traders excessively long → confirms short bias. Technical: bearish structure with key supports at 2.0430 and 2.0318. 👉 Conclusion: At the moment, GBPAUD shows a bearish bias supported by retail sentiment, seasonality, and price action. The most likely scenario is a test of the 2.04–2.03 zone in the coming weeks.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
4
EUR/USD at a Breaking Point: 1.1450 Demand in FocusCommitment of Traders (COT) USD Index (ICE Futures): Non-Commercials reduced both long (-1,370) and short (-1,629) positions. Positioning remains net short on the dollar (11,359 long vs 17,347 short), signaling relative weakness of the greenback. EUR Futures (CME): Non-Commercials significantly increased long positions (+6,420) and also added shorts (+3,106), but net long exposure remains dominant (252,719 long vs 133,974 short). This reflects renewed bullish interest in the euro. 📌 COT Summary: Institutional flows indicate a bullish bias on EUR and bearish bias on USD, supporting a medium-term long outlook on EUR/USD. Seasonality August is historically a weak month for the euro: seasonality shows, on average, a decline in EUR/USD during the second half of the month into early September, followed by a recovery later in Q3. 📌 Seasonal Bias: Slightly bearish in the short term, with potential for a rebound later. Retail Sentiment 58% of retail traders are short EUR/USD, compared with 42% long. 📌 Contrarian view: This increases the probability of a bullish move, as retail positioning is skewed against the trend. Technical Context Structure: EUR/USD is trading at 1.1636, within a range, with a supply zone above 1.1750 and a key demand zone between 1.1520–1.1450. RSI: Neutral, with no extreme overbought/oversold conditions. Primary Scenario: Potential further dip towards 1.1520–1.1450, where institutional buyers may re-enter. Secondary Scenario: If this support breaks, the next target lies in the 1.1350–1.1400 zone. Key Resistance: 1.1750–1.1800. 📌 Operational View: The market may still release downward pressure in the short term, but the 1.1450–1.1500 area appears strategic for potential long entries aligned with COT and sentiment.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
14
# USOIL WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis: Weekly Forecast# USOIL WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis: Weekly Forecast Current Price: $64.612 (As of August 30, 2025, 12:54 AM UTC+4) Asset Class: USOIL / WTI Crude Oil Cash Analysis Date: August 30, 2025 --- Executive Summary WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) continues to navigate a complex fundamental landscape, currently trading at $64.612 per barrel amid significant bearish pressure. Recent market data shows crude oil fell to $64.04 on August 29, 2025, declining 0.87% from the previous session with a concerning 8.51% monthly drop and 12.93% year-over-year decline. Technical analysis reveals the commodity has broken below critical support levels around $65.00-66.00, with strong resistance encountered at the descending trend line near $65.27. Our comprehensive analysis indicates potential for further downside toward $58-60 zone, though geopolitical risks and OPEC+ production dynamics could trigger sharp reversals. --- Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Analysis WTI Crude Oil exhibits a complex corrective structure within a multi-year consolidation pattern: Primary Count: Completing Wave C of larger degree ABC correction from 2022 highs Wave Structure: Currently in final stages of 5-wave decline toward $58-62 target Corrective Phase: Large degree consolidation between $60-85 range since 2022 Long-term Projection: Eventual breakout above $85 targets $110-120 by 2026-2027 Invalidation Level: Break below $55 would extend corrective phase significantly Fibonacci Relationships: Current decline showing 1.618 extension characteristics Wyckoff Market Structure Analysis Oil demonstrates classic Wyckoff Distribution Phase completion with transition to Markdown: Phase: Early Markdown Phase following Distribution completion Volume Analysis: Increasing volume on declines indicating institutional selling Price Action: Breaking support levels with follow-through selling Composite Operator Activity: Smart money liquidating positions accumulated above $70 Market Character: Weak rallies met with fresh selling pressure Re-accumulation Zone: $58-62 represents potential future accumulation area W.D. Gann Comprehensive Analysis Square of 9 Analysis: - Current price $64.612 positioned near 90-degree Gann support turning point - Next major Gann level: $58.50 (180-degree decline from recent high) - Time and price convergence: September 21-28, 2025 (Autumn Equinox influence) - Critical Gann squares: $62.41, $58.50, $54.76 (geometric decline sequence) Angle Theory Application: - 1x1 Declining Angle Resistance: $67-68 (primary downtrend line) - 2x1 Accelerated Decline: $60-62 (next support cluster) - 1x2 Support Angle: $55-58 (major correction boundary) - 1x4 Long-term Support: $48-52 (crisis scenario support) Time Cycle Analysis: - 84-day cycle low expected: Mid-September 2025 - Seasonal Gann Pattern: September-October typically sees oil volatility - Major time window: October 5-15, 2025 (potential reversal period) - Annual cycle: Q4 seasonal strength often supports energy complex Price Forecasting & Time Harmonics: - Immediate support: $62-64 - Primary target: $58-60 - Extended decline: $54-56 - Time harmony suggests potential reversal after October 8, 2025 Ranges in Harmony: - Current range: $62-68 (breakdown phase) - Next trading range: $55-65 (potential base formation) - Long-term channel: $45-85 (multi-year consolidation) --- Japanese Candlestick & Harmonic Pattern Analysis Recent Candlestick Formations (Daily Chart) Bearish Engulfing: August 26-27 confirming breakdown below $65 support Long Upper Shadows: Repeated rejection at $65.50-66.00 resistance levels Spinning Tops: Indecision candles around $64-65 zone Volume Confirmation: Increasing volume on red candles, declining on green Dark Cloud Cover: August 28-29 pattern confirming selling pressure Harmonic Pattern Recognition Bearish Gartley Completion: $68-70 zone (recent distribution area) ABCD Extension: Active decline targeting $58-60 completion zone Bearish Butterfly: Potential completion at $54-56 extreme target Fibonacci Confluence: Multiple extension levels converging at $58.50 Advanced Harmonic Analysis Three Drives Down: Developing pattern toward $58-60 target zone Bearish Crab Formation: Long-term pattern suggesting $52-55 targets AB=CD Equality: Price and time relationships supporting $58 target Cypher Pattern: Potential bullish reversal consideration at $58-60 Bull Trap vs Bear Trap Assessment Current Market Structure: Bear Trap Probability: 25% - Potential false breakdown below $62 support Bull Trap Scenario: 75% - Any rally above $67 likely to be sold aggressively Key Levels: Sustained break below $60 confirms bearish continuation Volume Pattern: High volume selling indicates genuine breakdown rather than trap --- Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Analysis Current Cloud Structure (Daily Chart) Price Position: Below Kumo cloud indicating bearish trend dominance Tenkan-sen (9-period): $65.24 (short-term dynamic resistance) Kijun-sen (26-period): $67.18 (medium-term resistance level) Senkou Span A: $66.21 (leading span A - resistance) Senkou Span B: $69.45 (leading span B - major cloud resistance) Chikou Span: Below historical price action confirming bearish sentiment Future Kumo Analysis (26 periods ahead): - Thickening cloud structure indicating strong resistance above - Future resistance zone: $65-70 (forward-looking cloud base) - Cloud twist not anticipated until late Q4 2025 Ichimoku Trading Signals TK Cross: Tenkan below Kijun (active bearish signal) Price vs Cloud: Below cloud with downward momentum Chikou Span: Clear below price history (bearish confirmation) Cloud Breakout: Failed to maintain position above cloud support --- Technical Indicators Comprehensive Analysis RSI (Relative Strength Index) Multi-Timeframe Daily RSI: 38.6 (oversold territory but not extreme) Weekly RSI: 42.3 (bearish momentum with room for decline) 4H RSI: 35.2 (approaching oversold with potential bounce) RSI Divergence: No bullish divergence detected, momentum remains bearish RSI Support: 30 level crucial for preventing deeper decline Bollinger Bands Analysis Current Position: Price near lower band ($62.50 level) Band Width: Expanding indicating increasing volatility %B Indicator: 0.18 (near lower extreme, potential bounce zone) Band Squeeze: Recent expansion from squeeze formation VWAP Analysis (Volume Weighted Average Price) Daily VWAP: $65.47 (dynamic resistance level) Weekly VWAP: $67.23 (key resistance zone) Monthly VWAP: $69.18 (major resistance level) Volume Profile: Highest volume acceptance at $66-68 zone now resistance Moving Average Structure 10 EMA: $65.89 (immediate dynamic resistance) 20 EMA: $67.12 (short-term resistance) 50 SMA: $69.45 (intermediate resistance) 100 SMA: $71.23 (key resistance level) 200 SMA: $73.87 (major secular resistance) Moving Average Signals: - Perfect bearish alignment across all timeframes - Death Cross pattern established (50/200 SMA) - Price trading below all major moving averages --- Support & Resistance Analysis Primary Resistance Levels 1. R1: $66.50-67.00 (immediate technical resistance and daily VWAP) 2. R2: $68.00-68.50 (previous support turned resistance) 3. R3: $70.00-70.50 (psychological and technical confluence) 4. R4: $72.00-73.00 (major moving average cluster) 5. R5: $75.00-76.00 (long-term resistance zone) Primary Support Levels 1. S1: $62.50-63.00 (immediate Gann support and lower Bollinger Band) 2. S2: $60.00-61.00 (psychological and harmonic support) 3. S3: $58.00-59.00 (major Gann target and Elliott Wave projection) 4. S4: $55.00-56.00 (extended harmonic target) 5. S5: $52.00-54.00 (crisis scenario and long-term support) Volume-Based Support/Resistance High Volume Node: $66-68 (now major resistance zone) Low Volume Gap: $60-62 (potential rapid movement area) Volume Support: $58-60 (potential accumulation zone) POC (Point of Control): $67.25 (maximum volume acceptance, now resistance) --- Multi-Timeframe Trading Strategy Framework Scalping Strategy (5M & 15M Charts) 5-Minute Timeframe Methodology: Entry Signals: Short rallies to 20 EMA with RSI >65 in downtrend Profit Targets: $0.30-0.50 per barrel per scalping trade Stop Loss: $0.20-0.30 maximum risk per position Volume Filter: Above-average volume required on breakdown continuation Time Windows: Asian session 1:00-4:00 AM, London open 3:00-6:00 AM EST 15-Minute Scalping Framework: Range Trading: Current range $63.50-65.50 Breakdown Strategy: Volume confirmation below $63.50 for continuation Counter-trend: Fade rallies above $65.50 without volume Risk Management: Maximum 3 positions simultaneously, 1:1.5 R:R minimum Intraday Trading Strategies (30M, 1H, 4H) 30-Minute Chart Approach: Trend Following: Short below EMA cluster ($65.50-66.00) Pattern Trading: Bear flag and pennant formations Target Methodology: Initial $62.50, extended $60-61 Risk Parameters: $0.80-1.20 stops, 2:1 reward-to-risk minimum 1-Hour Chart Strategy: Momentum Trading: MACD bearish crossovers with histogram expansion Resistance Shorting: Short entries from $66-67.50 zone Support Testing: Monitor $62-63 area for breakdown continuation Session Management: Focus on US trading hours 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM EST 4-Hour Swing Framework: Cloud Strategy: Short on failed attempts to reclaim Ichimoku cloud Elliott Wave: Ride Wave C completion toward major targets Fibonacci Trading: Use 38.2% and 50% retracements for short entries Hold Duration: 5-15 days for swing positions Swing Trading Strategy (Daily, Weekly, Monthly) Daily Chart Methodology: Breakdown Strategy: Short on sustained breaks below $62 with volume Bear Market Rallies: Short rallies to $67-69 resistance zone Target Progression: $60 → $58 → $55 sequential targets Position Management: Scale in on multiple timeframe confirmations Weekly Chart Analysis: Primary Trend: Strongly bearish below $70 weekly resistance Swing Targets: $58-60 zone for major profit-taking Risk Management: Weekly closes above $70 signal potential reversal Monthly Chart Perspective: Secular Range: Multi-year consolidation $45-85 Long-term Targets: $52-58 completion of corrective phase Reversal Zone: $55-60 area for potential major low formation --- Day-by-Day Trading Plan: September 2-6, 2025 Monday, September 2, 2025 (Labor Day - Reduced US Participation) Market Conditions: Thin liquidity in US markets, focus on Asian/European sessions Technical Setup: Resistance: $66.00, $67.50, $68.50 Support: $63.00, $61.50, $60.00 Expected Range: $62.50-66.50 Trading Strategy: Reduced Sizes: Holiday conditions warrant smaller positions Range Strategy: Short rallies to $65.50-66.00, long support at $63.00 Gap Management: Monitor overnight developments in Middle East Risk Focus: Geopolitical news sensitivity during thin trading Tuesday, September 3, 2025 Market Outlook: Full participation returns, inventory data focus Key Events & Strategy: API Inventory: Tuesday evening crude inventory report Technical Focus: $63 support test with volume analysis Geopolitical Monitor: Middle East tensions and OPEC+ developments Entry Strategy: Short $65-66.50 targeting $62-60 Risk Considerations: - Inventory surprise potential for sharp moves - Dollar strength impact on commodity complex - Chinese demand data influence Wednesday, September 4, 2025 Market Outlook: EIA inventory data and mid-week momentum Strategic Framework: EIA Report: Official US crude inventory data (10:30 AM EST) Technical Pattern: Monitor bear flag completion below $63 Volume Analysis: Institutional participation on breakdowns crucial Support Defense: $62 level critical for preventing accelerated decline Trading Approach: Pre-EIA: Light positioning due to event risk Post-EIA: React to inventory data with appropriate sizing Breakdown Play: Below $62 targets $60-58 zone Thursday, September 5, 2025 Market Outlook: Weekly inventory impact and positioning for Friday Key Considerations: Inventory Digest: Market reaction to Wednesday's EIA data Technical Levels: $60-61 major support zone testing OPEC+ Watch: Monitor for any production policy signals Dollar Correlation: USD strength continuing to pressure commodities Execution Strategy: Trend Continuation: Below $62 favors $58-60 targets Counter-trend Risk: Any rally above $66 likely to be sold Profit Management: Scale out at key support levels Friday, September 6, 2025 Market Outlook: Weekly close significance and position squaring Final Session Strategy: Weekly Close: Below $62 very bearish, above $66 potentially bullish Profit Protection: Secure gains from successful breakdown trades Weekend Risk: Geopolitical and OPEC+ news flow considerations Position Review: Maintain swing shorts with appropriate stops Critical Levels: Weekly Bearish: Close below $62 Weekly Neutral: $62-66 range Weekly Bullish: Close above $66 --- Macroeconomic & Geopolitical Analysis OPEC+ Production Policy Impact OPEC+ production dynamics remain crucial for oil price direction. The group has left the future of production cuts uncertain after September, with OPEC+ plans to gradually ease 2.2 mb/d of voluntary production cuts by eight countries starting in April 2025. However, geopolitical tensions, such as U.S. pressure on countries like India to stop buying Russian oil, could lead to further changes in OPEC+'s production strategy. US-India Tariff Impact Recent geopolitical developments show significant market impact, with WTI oil prices dropping from $65 to around $62.80 as markets react to new US tariffs on India, triggered by India's ongoing oil trade with Russia. This demonstrates how trade policy directly affects oil pricing dynamics. Supply-Demand Fundamentals Market fundamentals show concerning trends with WTI fluctuating between $54 and $79 amid weak global economic growth, unstable demand in China, and lower production expectations by OPEC+. The EIA projects annual average crude oil production in 2026 will decrease 0.1 million b/d on average from the record in 2025. Key Risk Factors 1. US-China Trade Relations: Demand destruction from economic slowdown 2. Middle East Tensions: Potential supply disruption premium 3. OPEC+ Policy Uncertainty: Production cut extension decisions 4. US Dollar Strength: Inverse correlation with commodity prices 5. Global Economic Growth: Recession fears impacting demand projections --- Seasonal & Cyclical Analysis Historical Seasonal Patterns September Performance: Typically weak, hurricane season concerns Q4 Seasonality: Mixed, depends on winter weather forecasts Refinery Maintenance: September-October maintenance season reduces demand Heating Oil Demand: October-November typically supports complex Economic Cycle Positioning Current Phase: Late cycle with demand concerns mounting Inventory Cycle: Drawing season transitioning to building season Refining Margins: Weak crack spreads indicating demand issues Investment Cycle: Reduced capex affecting future supply growth --- Bull Trap vs Bear Trap Detailed Analysis Current Market Structure Assessment Bull Trap Scenario (75% Probability): Characteristics: Any rally above $67 likely false breakout Volume Profile: Low volume on rallies, high volume on declines Technical Setup: Failed reclaim of key moving averages Fundamental Support: Weak demand and oversupply concerns Target Failure: Rally stops at $68-70 resistance complex Bear Trap Scenario (25% Probability): Characteristics: False breakdown below $62 creating buying opportunity Catalyst Required: Major geopolitical event or supply disruption Volume Confirmation: High volume reversal from $60-62 support Technical Reversal: Hammer or bullish engulfing at key support Breakout Target: $70-75 following trap completion Trap Identification Signals Bull Trap Confirmation: - Break above $67 on declining volume - Immediate reversal within 2-3 trading sessions - High volume selling on subsequent decline - RSI failure to confirm new highs Bear Trap Confirmation: - Sharp spike down to $60-62 on high volume - Quick reversal with gap up formation - Volume expansion on recovery move - Geopolitical catalyst supporting reversal --- Risk Management Comprehensive Framework Position Sizing Methodology Scalping Trades: 0.5-1% account risk per trade Intraday Positions: 1-2% maximum account risk Swing Positions: 2-3% account risk per established position Maximum Exposure: 6-8% total oil-related risk allocation Stop-Loss Implementation Scalping: $0.20-0.40 per barrel maximum Intraday: $0.80-1.50 per barrel based on volatility Swing Trading: Above key resistance levels ($68 for current shorts) Technical Stops: Elliott Wave and pattern invalidation levels Profit-Taking Strategy Scaling Approach: 30% at first target, 40% at second, hold 30% Trailing Stops: Implement after 2:1 favorable movement Time-Based Exits: Close before major inventory reports Pattern-Based: Honor harmonic and Elliott Wave completion zones --- Weekly Outlook Probability Matrix Bearish Scenario (Probability: 70%) Primary Catalysts: - Continued demand concerns from China and global slowdown - Strong US Dollar pressuring commodities - Technical breakdown below $62 support with volume - OPEC+ production increase implementation Price Objectives: - Initial: $60-62 - Extended: $58-60 - Crisis: $54-56 Neutral/Consolidation Scenario (Probability: 20%) Characteristics: - Range-bound trading $60-67 - Mixed inventory data and economic signals - Technical indecision at support levels - OPEC+ policy uncertainty Bullish Scenario (Probability: 10%) Risk Factors: - Major geopolitical event or supply disruption - Significant inventory draw or refinery issues - Technical reversal from $60-62 support zone - Unexpected OPEC+ production cut extension Upside Targets: - Initial: $68-70 - Extended: $72-75 - Crisis Premium: $80+ --- Long-Term Strategic Outlook Multi-Year Price Cycle Oil appears to be in a multi-year consolidation phase between $45-85, with current weakness potentially setting up major low formation in the $55-62 zone for eventual breakout above $85 targeting $110-120 by 2026-2027. Energy Transition Impact Long-term demand concerns from electric vehicle adoption and renewable energy transition continue to cap oil prices, creating ceiling around $85-90 level for sustained periods. --- Conclusion & Strategic Recommendations WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) stands at a critical technical juncture near $64.61, exhibiting strong bearish momentum with potential for further decline toward the $58-60 zone. The confluence of technical breakdown, fundamental weakness, and geopolitical pressures suggests elevated probability for continued selling pressure. Key Bearish Factors: 1. Technical Breakdown: Clear break below $65-66 support zone 2. Fundamental Weakness: Demand concerns and oversupply issues 3. Geopolitical Pressure: US tariff policies affecting global trade 4. Seasonal Factors: Refinery maintenance season reducing demand Critical Monitoring Points: 1. $62 Support Level: Key defense line for bulls 2. Inventory Data: Weekly EIA reports for demand signals 3. OPEC+ Policy: Production cut extension decisions 4. Geopolitical Developments: Middle East tensions and trade policies Strategic Recommendation: Maintain bearish bias with tactical short opportunities on rallies to $66-68 resistance zone. Target $58-60 for major profit-taking while managing risk above $68. Any sustained move above $70 would negate bearish thesis and suggest major reversal beginning. The September-October timeframe represents critical period for direction, with potential for either accelerated decline to $55 or major reversal from $58-62 support complex. --- *This comprehensive analysis is provided for educational and informational purposes only. Oil trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always implement appropriate risk management and consult with qualified financial professionals before making investment decisions.* --- For individuals seeking to enhance their trading abilities based on the analyses provided, I recommend exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade. (Website: shunya dot trade) I would appreciate your feedback on this analysis, as it will serve as a valuable resource for future endeavors. Sincerely, Shunya.Trade Website: shunya dot trade Disclaimer: This post is intended solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed herein are derived from technical analysis and are shared for informational purposes only. The stock market inherently carries risks, including the potential for capital loss. Therefore, readers are strongly advised to exercise prudent judgment before making any investment decisions. We assume no liability for any actions taken based on this content. For personalized guidance, it is recommended to consult a certified financial advisor.
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDE
by sunya
Silver Roadmap: Key Supply at 38.8 or a Breakout to 39.6?Price is consolidating around 38.0, after recovering from July’s breakdown, currently sitting just below the weekly supply/resistance zone at 38.3–38.8, with liquidity resting above 39.2–39.6. The nearest and strongest daily demand lies at 36.6–35.5 (origin of the prior impulse and multi-touch base). Momentum/RSI on the daily chart is neutral (not overbought), with the latest rally built on shallow pullbacks → a favorable context for potential “stop-hunts” above supply before the market makes a decision. COT (Aug 12): Non-commercials remain net long but have been trimming positions (longs ↓, shorts ↑), while commercials stay net short → bullish positioning is cooling, often a precursor to range-bound or corrective phases. Retail sentiment: roughly 52% short / 48% long, not at extremes → no strong contrarian signal. Seasonality: August tends to be slightly bullish for silver on 10–20 year averages, while September is historically negative → current tailwind may turn into a headwind ahead. 🔎 Bias: Neutral with a bearish tilt at 38.3–38.8, unless a breakout is confirmed; elevated risk of false breaks toward 39.3–39.6 before potential downside rotation. Key catalysts to watch: DXY and real yields (inverse correlation), gold performance, US macro releases (CPI, ISM, NFP), and Chinese data (PMIs/industrial growth). A stronger USD or rising yields would favor the bearish case from 38.8, while a weaker USD combined with a gold breakout would increase the odds of a liquidity sweep toward 39.6.
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by EdgeTradingJourney
2
AUD/JPY at Decision Point – Bulls or Bears to Take Control?1. COT Analysis JPY: Net shorts among Non-Commercials increased (+5.3K shorts, -1.8K longs), indicating growing bearish pressure on the yen. Commercials, however, heavily accumulated longs (+13.5K), suggesting that large players may be hedging or positioning for a potential yen rebound. AUD: Still heavily net short, with Non-Commercials reducing longs (-2.5K) and slightly increasing shorts (+2.9K). This reflects a continued speculative bearish sentiment on the Australian dollar. → COT Implication: The divergence between a heavily shorted JPY and an AUD already under bearish pressure can lead to increased volatility. Without supportive macro drivers for the AUD, the pair may struggle to sustain upward moves. 2. Seasonality JPY: Historically weak in August (20-year average: -0.61%), with sharper declines in the last 5 and 2 years. This tends to favor AUD/JPY upside in the first part of the month. AUD: Slightly positive in the past 2 years (+0.01%), but negative over longer periods. → Short-term seasonality is moderately supportive of upside, but historical patterns don’t back a strong directional trend. 3. Sentiment Retail positioning: 63% short vs 37% long. Historically, retail traders often find themselves on the wrong side of major moves, making this setup moderately bullish for AUD/JPY in the short term. 4. Technical Analysis Weekly Supply Zone: 96.88–98.77. Price is currently below this area after a strong rejection in recent weeks. Weekly Demand Zone: 94.90–95.00, previously tested with a bullish reaction. RSI: Neutral zone, no overbought/oversold signals, but slightly tilted downward on the weekly timeframe. Price Action: Current candle shows a recovery attempt after a bearish rejection, but unless the weekly closes above 96.92, the risk of another drop toward 95 remains high. 5. Trading Bias Bullish Scenario: Weekly break & close above 96.92 with volume → Target 97.80 / 98.50. Bearish Scenario: Weekly rejection below 96.90 and daily break of 95.80 → Target 95.00 / 94.50. Macro Context: In risk-on environments, AUD tends to outperform JPY; in risk-off, the yen rebounds quickly. 📌 Summary: Short-term neutral-to-bullish bias driven by contrarian retail sentiment and moderately bullish seasonality, but 96.92 remains a critical resistance that must be broken to unlock more upside. Failure here could send the pair back to 95.00, with risk of breakdown if macro sentiment worsens.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
Crude Oil Weekly Outlook: Tariffs, Ceasefire, OPEC & CPI RisksKey Events This Week • WTI drops to 62.60 ahead of major geopolitical and economic catalysts: Ukraine ceasefire, U.S.–China tariffs, OPEC report, and U.S. CPI • Global tariff developments continue to shape sentiment and crude demand valuations, especially in relation to OPEC’s evolving supply strategy WTI’s latest drop is currently holding at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the May–June uptrend, and precisely at the neckline of the inverted head and shoulders pattern around the 62.60 level. The Fibonacci retracement was applied from the $55 low to the $77.80 close, filtering out breakout noise from the Iran–Israel escalation outside the borders of the 3-year down trending channel. • If 62.60 breaks, downside risks may accelerate toward the mid-zone of the channel, with key levels in sight at 61.40, 59.40, and 55.20, respectively. • If 62.60 holds, and WTI reclaims ground above 65, we could see a recovery toward the upper edge with next resistance levels at 68.00, 70.00, 71.40, and 72.70. Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
FOREXCOM:USOIL
by FOREXcom
GBP/JPY Trap? Smart Money Might Be Setting Up the Next Drop📊 1. Technical Overview Price broke the bullish structure decisively, closing below a key demand zone between 195.00–196.00, leaving a large unfilled imbalance. Last week's recovery candle suggests a potential pullback toward 197.40–197.80, now acting as a resistance confluence. The descending channel and weak RSI further support a continuation of the bearish trend. Bearish targets: 193.50 and 192.20 📈 2. COT (Commitment of Traders) Report GBP: Non-commercials are cutting long positions (–5,961) and adding shorts (+6,637) → Bearish divergence developing on GBP. JPY: Non-commercials are heavily increasing short exposure (+15,113), but remain strongly net-long overall, indicating a potential exhaustion of bullish JPY positioning. 💭 3. Retail Sentiment Positioning is neutral: 51% long / 49% short. This balance suggests no excessive retail bias, leaving room for directional moves without immediate contrarian pressure. 📆 4. Seasonality August is historically bearish for GBP/JPY: • –2.82% (20Y average) • –3.04% (15Y average) • –1.44% (5Y average) The data shows a consistent historical bias to the downside during this month. 🎯 5. Strategic Outlook • Primary Bias: Bearish below 197.40–197.80 • Invalidation: Weekly close above 198.10 • Targets: 195.00 > 193.50 > 192.20 The confluence of technical rejection, bearish COT dynamics, neutral sentiment, and negative seasonality supports a corrective scenario for August.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
7