Opec

USOIL is setting a Trap?USOIL has staged an impressive recovery from the $68–72 weekly demand zone, reaching approximately $101.70. However, despite the bullish momentum, I am not interested in buying at current prices. The market is now trading directly below a major resistance cluster: • Weekly descending trendline • Previous swing highs • Supply between $104 and $106 This is an area where I expect increased volatility and a possible liquidity grab before the market reveals its next directional move. 📈 COT position

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NZDCHF: Bearish Now, But Is Smart Money Preparing the Reversal?NZDCHF is currently trading around 0.4710, and my short-term view remains bearish. As long as price remains below 0.4750–0.4760, I see room for another bearish leg. A clean break below 0.4700 followed by a weak retest could expose 0.4665 and 0.4630, bringing price directly into the Weekly Demand Zone highlighted on my chart. The latest COT data shows a clear divergence between NZD and CHF positioning. NZD Non-Commercial traders are now net long +6.2K contracts, with an impressive +14.8K increa

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GBPCHF Heading Towards 1.1500?My outlook on GBPCHF remains bullish, with 1.1500 representing a potential medium-term target. The pair is currently trading around 1.1045 after breaking above the previous resistance area, this breakout confirms a bullish daily structure characterised by higher highs and higher lows. COT REPORT The latest COT Report shows that non-commercial traders remain heavily bearish on the Swiss franc: • 17,273 long contracts • 47,258 short contracts • Net position: –29,985 contracts During the latest

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USDJPY: 86% of Retail Traders Are Long My current bias on USDJPY remains bearish, but I am not interested in selling at the current market price. After rejecting the weekly supply zone around 163.70–164.00, USDJPY delivered a strong bearish expansion. Price subsequently retraced into the 159.80–160.40 area, where it swept liquidity above the local highs before continuing lower. This move produced three important technical signals: • A clear break of the ascending trendline • A loss of the 155.00–155.20 support area • A bearish seque

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GBP/JPY: Is the Sell-Off Really Over?GBP/JPY’s market structure deteriorated significantly following the rejection from the 217.00–217.70 area. Since then, the pair has developed strong bearish momentum, initially breaking below the weekly support at 211.84 and then losing the key 209.50 level. However, given the strength of the bearish move, I do not consider the simple arrival inside this area sufficient reason to enter a long position. The liquidity resting below the recent lows could attract another bearish extension towards t

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EUR/USD Is Bearish — But Selling Here Could Be a Trap My medium-term outlook on EUR/USD remains bearish, but I am not interested in chasing shorts at current prices. From a technical perspective, price remains below the major descending trendline and is approaching an important supply area around 1.1640–1.1680. This is the first zone where I would look for bearish confirmation before considering a short. Positioning supports the broader view. COT data shows EUR non-commercials still net short by approximately 36K contracts, while speculative posi

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WTI CRUDE OIL: $95–97 Could Decide the Next Major Move WTI remains one of the markets I am watching closely as price approaches a key higher-timeframe area. From a technical perspective, my overall bias remains bullish. After breaking out of the major descending structure, WTI found strong demand around $68–74, where the weekly gap, ascending trendline and HTF demand converged. The reaction from this area has been strong, with price now trading around $90. My main focus is $94–97, where I see an important gap zone combined with buy-side liquidity

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AUDJPY: 88% of Retail Traders Are Short AUDJPY continues to show a strong bullish structure after the sharp recovery from the 110.00 area. Buyers have progressively regained control of the market, pushing price back toward a major Daily resistance zone between 114.35 and 114.80. AUDJPY is trading directly inside resistance, close to the previous highs and the buy-side liquidity resting above them. For this reason, I believe the market could first sweep this liquidity before starting a corrective movement. The first area I will monito

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GOLD to $5,000 My medium-term outlook on Gold remains bullish, but after the strong August expansion, I believe XAUUSD could need a correction before starting its next major leg higher. From a technical perspective, the Weekly structure remains constructive, but price is currently trading between two important areas. The zone I’m watching most closely is $4,200–$4,300, where we have a Weekly imbalance that could provide an interesting area for buyers to step back into the market. A deeper correction toward $4

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GBP/USD: Bears may be walking into a trap From a technical perspective, the broader structure remains constructive. Price recently pushed into the 1.3600–1.3660 weekly supply/liquidity area, where sellers reacted aggressively, bringing the pair back toward the previous breakout zone. For me, this pullback does not automatically represent a bearish reversal. Instead, I see the 1.3505–1.3530 area as the key decision zone for the next directional move. The latest COT report shows GBP non-commercial traders holding 93,612 long contracts ag

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EUR/GBP: Is a Bullish Breakout Coming?EUR/GBP is currently trading around 0.8578, and I believe the pair is approaching an interesting decision point. After reaching the 0.8460–0.8480 area in July, EUR/GBP produced a strong reaction and has since recovered into the current consolidation. Technical Structure Price is currently consolidating roughly between 0.8531 and 0.8585. What catches my attention is the inability of sellers to generate another meaningful bearish expansion after the July low. Instead, price has started building

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USDJPY: Ready for Its Next Big Move USDJPY is currently sitting at a very interesting crossroads. Short-term price action remains constructive, COT positioning supports further upside, but seasonality and retail sentiment suggest that another pullback could come before the next major bullish expansion. USDJPY is currently trading around 159.00, following the aggressive sell-off from the 163.50–164.00 area and the strong reaction from the major demand zone around 155.00–157.50. COT REPORT Positioning Still Supports USDJPY The

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NZDCHF Reversal Ahead? NZDCHF is currently trading around 0.4787, inside a key Daily supply zone and near the upper boundary of the bullish structure that has driven the pair higher over the past few months. The latest COT data is particularly relevant. On NZD, Non-Commercial positioning improved significantly, with longs increasing by 1,395 contracts and shorts falling by 5,571. However, this happened while Open Interest dropped by 7,687 contracts. To me, this suggests that much of the improvement may be driven by

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GBP/JPY: 90% of Traders Are Short GBP/JPY reacted strongly after sweeping the liquidity below the previous lows around 211.20–210.80. Since then, the pair has developed a clear bullish impulse, reclaimed the 214.50–216.00 area and started producing a sequence of higher highs and higher lows. COT REPORT ANALYSIS The latest non-commercial positioning reveals an interesting situation. British pound: • 77,343 long contracts • 131,916 short contracts • Net position: approximately −54,573 contracts Japanese yen: • 128,932 long cont

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EUR/USD: Is 1.1800 the Next Target?EUR/USD continues to show a constructive bullish structure after breaking above the descending trendline that had controlled price action since April. The pair is currently trading inside the 1.1640–1.1690 resistance area, where a temporary rejection or consolidation would be completely normal. My preferred scenario is a pullback toward 1.1635–1.1640, followed by a clear bullish reaction and confirmation of support. As long as this area holds, I will continue to favour a continuation toward th

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GBP/USD: 70% of Retail Traders are Short My overall bias is still bullish, but at current prices I’m not interested in chasing the move. From a technical perspective, the structure remains constructive. Since the June lows, GBP/USD has developed a clear bullish sequence and is now trading inside the 1.3560–1.3650 resistance area. This is exactly why, despite maintaining a bullish outlook, I would rather see a pullback before looking for new long opportunities. The main area I’m watching is 1.3505–1.3550. A retracement into this zone,

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USD/CAD Breakdown Incoming?From a technical perspective, USD/CAD continues to show a clear bearish structure. After reaching the 1.4220–1.4240 area, the pair started developing a sequence of: Lower Highs → Lower Lows → Lower Highs → Lower Lows The rejection from the 1.4090–1.4130 supply zone reinforced the bearish structure and pushed the market back below the psychological 1.4000 level. Price is now trading around 1.3890, meaning a significant part of the bearish move has already taken place. For this reason, I am not l

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EURAUD: Is 1.6200 the Next Major Target?On the Daily timeframe, price has broken the ascending trendline and continues to form lower highs below the main descending resistance. I am not interested in selling at the current level because price is already approaching the 1.6200–1.6250 Daily demand zone. Instead, I will wait for a pullback into: • 1.6350–1.6400 • 1.6470–1.6505 From these areas, I will look for bearish confirmation on H1 or H4. Around 80% of retail traders are currently long EURAUD, supporting my bearish view from a cont

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EUR/CAD: Long Setup?EUR/CAD is approaching a key decision area around, where price is meeting both HTF demand and the rising trendline. Before looking for a potential long, I combined COT positioning, retail sentiment, seasonality and technical structure. 📊 COT Both currencies remain net short among Non-Commercials: 🇪🇺 EUR: -58K 🇨🇦 CAD: -179K CAD remains significantly more short than EUR, while the latest report also showed stronger short covering on the Euro: around 17.5K EUR shorts closed vs 6.2K on CAD. This

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GBP/USD: The Perfect Bearish Setup Is Forming My medium-term outlook on GBP/USD remains bearish, although I’m not looking to enter short aggressively at current prices. Non-Commercial traders remain heavily net short GBP at -57.8K contracts, while positioning on the USD Index remains net long at +22.5K contracts. Although GBP shorts have recently been partially reduced, the overall positioning still favors a stronger USD relative to the Pound. Seasonality also supports the bearish scenario Historically, August tends to be a weak month for

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GOLD: One More Push Higher Before the Reversal?Gold has delivered a strong bullish reaction from the 4,000 area, a key zone on my Weekly structure where price found confluence between the Weekly FVG, previous structural support and the broader bullish trend. From this area, buyers regained control and pushed the market back towards 4,400. The latest COT report shows Non-Commercials holding approximately +197,000 contracts net long, with large speculators adding 7,391 long contracts while simultaneously reducing shorts by 8,173 contracts. Th

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CADCHF: 71% of Retail Traders Are LONG CADCHF is entering my bearish watchlist for the coming sessions. My current thesis is based on the possibility of a bearish retracement from a premium area, with price action ultimately determining whether the setup becomes executable. Technical Context CADCHF has experienced a strong bullish expansion from the 0.5650–0.5670 demand area, pushing the market back toward its recent highs. Price is now trading around 0.5797, directly below an important premium/supply area located approximately be

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EUR/USD: bullish reversal or just another bull trap?After bouncing from the major demand zone around 1.1330–1.1360, EUR/USD has staged an impressive recovery. However, I still view this move as a corrective rally within a broader bearish trend, rather than the beginning of a sustainable bullish reversal. From a Daily perspective, market structure remains bearish, with a clear sequence of lower highs still intact. The 1.1540–1.1565 region is, in my opinion, the key level to watch over the coming sessions. This zone combines a previous support tur

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CHFJPY Has Reached a Major HTF Demand Zone After several weeks of persistent selling pressure, CHFJPY has finally reached a high-timeframe demand zone that I have been monitoring for quite some time. The decline has been aggressive, breaking below the July range and sweeping previous swing lows. Technical Structure From a purely technical perspective, the market is still trading within a well-defined bearish structure. Lower highs continue to hold. Price has broken the previous consolidation. The recent impulsive candle has created a

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