Get started

Overvalued

ANALIZING PALANTIR ITS JUST COMMON SENSE... BUT BE VERY CAREFULLLet’s welcome Palantir (PLTR) into the weekend analysis! As we can see in the chart, today I wanted to do general structure analysis not too specific, as we are practically touching the highest level again in nearly 4 years. Congratulations to all who bought at $12–16 per share and are still holding Palantir, but as I show in the chart, from point A to point B, it took almost 4 years to reach these levels again. But here’s my question: WHAT WOULD YOU DO IF YOU BOUGHT AROUND $40 IN 2021? I’d love to know, as this situation can greatly influence each person’s psychology when making a fundamental decision in trading. (LEAVE YOUR OPINION IN THE COMMENTS) I want you to know that I don’t just focus on price analysis. I also study company valuation. Based on a fundamental analysis of its balance sheet and recent moves by PLTR, I’ve concluded that Palantir is currently 171% above its intrinsic value. In my personal opinion, my decision leans more toward common sense… What do I mean? 1. Palantir is 171% overvalued. 2. Palantir is diluting its investors like crazy! In every quarterly report. Do you know what dilution is? Stock dilution can be harmful to shareholders because the value of each share is reduced, even though the investor holds the same number of shares. This is because the total value of the company doesn’t increase proportionally with the number of shares. Palantir is an excellent company, although it’s a bit complicated to understand what they do and how they make money. But in my personal opinion, a company that dilutes its investors is nothing but a red flag to me—and a big red flag—because I call this the silent killer for investors. At this point, PLTR is more on the hype side! If Palantir reports well in November, we could see the stock above $50 per share, BUT if Palantir reports anything that doesn’t meet investor expectations, any data that falls short… Buckle up! But how much could it fall? The truth is, I don’t know. But if we base it on technical analysis, I have an important inflection point (purple zone) where I expect the price to bounce after a sharp drop. BUT CAUTION! Only if Palantir doesn’t meet expectations. An inflection point in trading refers to a critical moment on a price chart where the trend or price direction is expected to change. It marks the transition from one phase of price movement to another, often signaling a turning point in market sentiment or momentum. Traders pay close attention to inflection points as they may indicate a radical trend shift. Traders use these points to adjust their strategies, such as entering or exiting positions, to capitalize on the expected change in price direction. BUT WHAT WILL REALLY HAPPEN? I don’t know, maybe this time it will be different—who knows? But the only thing I can tell you is that numbers don’t lie, and neither does price action. So, I hope the decision you make is the right one! Thank you for supporting this analysis. Sending you my best regards!
PShort
by RocketMike111
2
Palantir Technologies and a strong look into its FundamentalsNYSE:PLTR is one of the most popular stocks of the last 2 years , and not for no reason being a high revenue growth stock "16.8% Growth Rate" , My personal problem with the stock lays with the valuation holding a PE Ratio of 201x, and a forward PE Ratio of 172.5x, a 20.1x Price to Books Ratio, and a 32.8x Price to Sales (Revenue) Ratio. an interesting Return on Equity of 10% , A Return on Assets of 4.6% , And an Return on Capital Employed of 6.7% , with Net margins of 16.3%. Being Completely "Debt" free according to there Balance Sheet -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Valuation: PE Ratio: 201x Forward PE Ratio: 172.5x Price to Sales: 32.8x Price to Books Ratio: 20.1x ----------------------------------- Balance Sheet: Cash: US$4.00b Debt: US$0 Equity: US$4.14b Total Liabilities: US$1.05b Total Assets: US$5.19b ----------------------------------- Strengths and Weaknesses: The Valuation to me personally is a weakness, however the Balance sheet is a Strength in my view. I think based on the price I currently would wait to add this one to my own portfolio however all investors and traders are different. ----------------------------------- Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor and in no way am I signaling a sell, buy, or hold opinion on this stock (Palantir Technologies) I am just giving my personal opinion as a hobby trader, I have no certifications and I am not a financial analyst, I also may be wrong about how I feel about the stock. I want you to do plenty more research on this and the stocks you are interested in because the stock market always holds a lot of risk that may pose different risks and overall be different for each investor and trader. Please do not make opinions based on this idea or any idea. Please be careful! this post is only for conversation. ----------------------------------- Idea:
PLong
by BullishCanadianInvestor
11
Is MRVL overextended ? SHORTMRVL on the 60 minute chart certainly had an impressive run for two days gaining 16%. The chart however shows the bullish candles are decreasing in range and price is more than two standard deviations above the mean VWAP and far outside the high volume area of the volume profile. Bullish volatility fell to close the trading week on Friday afternoon. My trade plan is to watch MRVL for consolidation and then a retracement of its bullish move. A cross of the faster green RSI down under the slower red RSI will be the bearish divergence to be seen to consider MRVL for a short trade.
NASDAQ:MRVLShort
by AwesomeAvani
1
NCI NASDAQ's Cryptocurrency Index SHORTOn a 2H chart, the index has had a 125% trend up since October averaging 25% per month but accelerating. I wanted to see if there are any signs of an impeding correction given the uptrend's duration. The past week added about 10% which seems unsustainable. The RSI is not yet in high overvalued /bought territory but is on the approach. The predictive algo indicators may suggest some upside but when zooming in the trendlines are relatively flat. The candlesticks are showing prominent topping wicks. The Bollinger bands show a " upper band march" after the run up of the past week. Overall, at least for the immediate to intermediate term, I see no upside for this index. As applied to my trading, I will take no new long positions of BTC and ETH. I will consider taking partial profits at the highs of the upcoming several days at 10% each time. At some point when a reversal is more definitive I may take short positions in them.
NASDAQ:NCI
by AwesomeAvani
BTC / Bitcoin - Consensus of Indicator Analysis / ForecastOn this highly reliable weekly chart I have placed and added various indicators. My review of them is on the chart. Solely from the perspective of my review and analysis and not at all setting aside the idea of BTC to $250K in 2024, Bitcoin may be overbought with a high RSI and MACD about to cross lines over a relatively thin histogram. Price is higher than the 3rd VWAP band line 3 standard deviations above the mean of the anchored VWAP and the mass index is above the threshold for it to fall to trigger a reversal Accordingly, I will not add to my position and will hold what I have. Further, i will take a look at the NASDAQ Cryptocurrency Index and if it appears to be similar to BTC which is the biggest market cap within that index, I will not add to ETHUSD or any of the other "stable coins". I am prepared to short BTC on a forex exchange with leverage once an established trend is seen on a 60-180 minute chart with checking ADX and DI +.
by AwesomeAvani
When to sell NvidiaNamaste! Nvidia was one of the stocks which benefited hugely by the AI (Artificial Intelligence) boom. It corrected around 68% from its all time high during October 2022. Looking back at that time, I thought it as some serious happening because Meta was down around 76% , Netflix 77% , Tesla 72% , Amazon 55% , etc. I knew these were a good buys and probably sold at 100 or 200% gain . Off course I couldn't buy because I am Indian and trading in US markets is complicated. But now, I think it is time to book the profits in Nvidia at $490 . Key reasons affecting my decision: 1. The stock is overvalued. 2. AI hype is cooling off. 3. I am expecting a recession in the year 2024. 4. My bearish Instinct . Other things anyone can do:- 1. Sell at above mentioned prices and buy back at $347, which will result in around 30% in opportunity profit. Remember, I have nothing to win and nothing to loose. Any gain or loss arising out of my analysis is yours . Consider your financial advisor before taking any steps. Disclaimer: This article should not be considered as an investment or trading advice. The analysis is based on my understanding and experience in the markets. You must do your own analysis and/or consult your financial advisor before investing or trading.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by UnknownUnicorn7637383
7
When to sell MRF (Madras Rubber Factory)Namaste! MRF is the biggest valued stock (INR) in India. It's price is around half the nominal GDP per capita (2022) of India. It seems overvalued to me. You see, retail individuals cause the volatility (rapidly falling prices). Retail individuals react overwhelmingly and quickly to emotions and they cause the volatility (rapidly falling prices). But due to insanely INR price of MRF, it surely has kept away retail people. This costly stock would have been mostly attracted sensible big pocket individuals and financial institutions. But now I think it is a good time to book profits in MRF Ltd (at Rs 1,10,000). Following are the reasons: 1. Most of the worlds' central banks increased interest rates at very fast pace. RBI didn't increase as rapidly because they wanted growth. Many companies reported record profits due to cheap credit in India. 2. RBI increasing rates in the year 2024: You see, GDP growth was an important factor to the current ruling party because history has taught that the government which didn't increased GDP growth figures during their ruling tenure, has lost the following elections in India. So, it has been greatly paid attention to increase GDP growth percentage, of course at the cost of inflation . 3. Coming recession in the year 2024 (personal assumption) . 4. Slight uncertainty in the economy due to 2024 election. 5. India got a good hype due to moving production from China to India. It caused the Indian stock market (Nifty50) to not fall as much as their global peers . I wouldn't say it isn't possible, but it would take longer time period than the market is pricing in. 6. My bearish instinct . I do not own and/or planning to own any shares or position in the stock. Disclaimer: This article should not be considered as an investment or trading advice. The analysis is based on my understanding and experience in the markets. You must do your own analysis and/or consult your financial advisor before investing or trading.
NSE:MRFShort
by UnknownUnicorn7637383
1
Educational: 3 ways to determine if the market is overvalued Introduction The issue with determining if a market is overvalued is the fact that depending on your perspective the market always seems overvalued. In this publication we will explore 3 sound ways to determine if the market is overpriced and see how they works. 🔷 Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio The Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, sometimes referred to as the Shiller CAPE ratio or cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio, is a measure of stock market valuation. It was created by Robert Shiller, a Nobel Prize-winning economist, and it is used to determine if a market is overpriced or undervalued. The classic P/E ratio works by dividing the stock price of a firm by its EPS over the previous twelve months. The Shiller P/E ratio, on the other hand, adopts a longer-term strategy by considering the trailing 10-year average of inflation-adjusted earnings over the prior 10 years. The Shiller P/E ratio is calculated using the following formula: Stock market index price divided by the average of the prior ten years' worth of inflation-adjusted earnings is known as the Shiller P/E ratio. The Shiller P/E ratio provides a more thorough picture of the market's valuation by using the 10-year average to smooth out short-term swings. It aids in mitigating the effects of brief increases or decreases in incomes brought on by economic cycles. Market valuation levels are frequently determined using the Shiller P/E ratio. It is possible that the market is overvalued and that future returns will be lower if the Shiller P/E ratio is high. A low Shiller P/E ratio, on the other hand, would suggest that the market is undervalued and that future returns might be higher. The Shiller P/E ratio should be used in conjunction with other fundamental and technical indicators, as it is not a perfect forecast of market moves. Investors and analysts use a variety of tools to analyze the state of the market and choose which investments to make. 🔷 Brock Value The brock value is a measure of valuation that bases its assessment of the S&P 500 index's intrinsic worth on two inputs: GDP and interest rates. Peter Brock, a writer and financial expert, created it. This is how the brock value is determined: Where r is the yield on medium-term corporate bonds, GDP is the US gross domestic product, and BV is the Brock value. The S&P 500 index's real price can be compared with the brock value to assess whether it is overpriced or underpriced. According to Brock, the market often fluctuates between 30% and 20% over the Brock value. Extreme valuation and probable turning points are indicated when the market is above or below these ranges. For example, as of June 2, 2023, the brock value was 2441.65, while the S&P 500 index closed at 4282.37, which means the market was 75.4% overpriced1. This suggests that the market is in a risky territory and may face a significant correction in the future. Conversely, if the market was below the dotted green line on the brock value chart, it would indicate that the market was underpriced and may offer attractive returns in the long term 🔷 Market Volatility Market volatility is a gauge of how much the entire value of the stock market goes up and down. By examining the correlation between volatility and investor sentiment, it is possible to ascertain whether the market is overvalued. Investor sentiment is the overall attitude or mood of investors toward the market, and it can be affected by a number of things, including news, events, expectations, emotions, etc. Utilizing implicit indices that represent investor behavior and preferences, such as put-call ratio, trading volume, dividend yield, etc., is one technique to gauge investor sentiment. A high put-call ratio, for instance, suggests that investors are purchasing put options more frequently than call options, which suggests a bearish or pessimistic mindset. When investors are actively trading in the market, there is a high degree of interest and enthusiasm, which is shown by a high trade volume. An investor's willingness to pay more for companies that pay fewer dividends is indicated by a low dividend yield, which suggests a positive or upbeat attitude. Some research imply a link between investor sentiment and market volatility that is unfavorable. This implies that market volatility is low (stable) while investor sentiment is high (optimistic), and vice versa. This can be explained by the premise that when investors are upbeat, they tend to disregard bad news and concentrate on good news, which lowers market uncertainty and discord. On the other side, pessimistic investors have a propensity to overreact to bad news and disregard good news, which exacerbates market uncertainty and discord. Therefore, by examining the divergence from the historical average or trend, one can utilize market volatility as a signal of market overvaluation. Market volatility may indicate that investor sentiment is excessively high and the market is overpriced if it is low relative to its historical level. The market may be undervalued if volatility is high compared to historical levels, indicating that investor confidence is too low. This strategy should be employed cautiously, though, as there may be additional variables, such as prevailing economic conditions, interest rates, and earnings growth, that influence market volatility and valuation. Below is the TVC:VIX which is the volatility index.
COINBASE:ETHUSDEducation
by ChristopherDownie
3
USD Dumping Alerts " overvalued " The dollar had a nice rally and is about to collapse .. the rally was markup and we are gonna see a retest towards 106 must break down the 106 level then it's bullish .. building short positions starting from the September candle, especially above 109.900 and going full short if it touches 119.600 .. its a large zone so give it space and dont rush, its worth it ,, oh, I forget to mention that all fundamentals are dollar bearish now it's time for the dollar to pay the bill :)
TVC:DXYShort
by ShoeIsRich
1
ENPH - Big play potential here! Massive Double TopEnphase Energy, leader in Solar & Green Energy Sector. Enphase has recently seen parabolic performance skyrocketing the stock to All Time Highs. While the stock is testing all time highs, it is still very overvalued with a P/e of 150. The bear market has not taken its toll on Enphase yet, while it has been rising in this clear rising wedge. What I see: - A clear Double Top being Printed in Large Supply Zone - Rising Wedge - Overvalued - Hasn’t got Bear market hit yet Risks : Earnings Growth Market Meltup rally Break above zone from possible cup & handle formation.
NASDAQ:ENPHShort
by ZachSap
8
SE ~ Lower Lows incoming? Buying Opp incoming?SE, Sea Limited has been suffering massive losses ever since its peak in the fall of 2021. This massive bull run was led with the Tech & Growth Stock boom that's bubble has recently bursted through out the current Bear Market of 2022! Sea Limited owns multiple varieties of Business in the South-Eastern Asia Region. Businesses Like : Shopee - Ecommerce Giant Garena - Gaming + Esports & Much more smaller companies Sea Limited has grown a massive amount of revenue, but has most definitely struggled with its debt and spending to make a profit. Nonetheless, let's get to Technicals! SE has suffered such huge losses, many wonder where is the bottom!? My thesis for this Stock is a short / mid term short position, followed by long term accumilation. Short : SE has 2 major gaps to still be filled from back before COVID, and the gigantic Rally that took place on SE. I see huge potential for this company's future growth, but I think more downside is to come to give SE fair value. Along with fair value, and these gaps SE has been unable to reclaim any weekly moving averages, and the TTM_SQUEEZE Momentum Indicator shows more bearish momentum coming. The monthly chart will get to the point of being oversold, probably near these gap fills. At these gap fill areas, and the way down would be a proper time imo to be covering short positions. The market also seems to have some more pain ahead, and interest rates will only hurt this company and the markets more, driving the stock down fundamentally. Long : I do believe in this company's long term outlook and performance. I do think that this will take a while to turn around... But if these gaps get filled, the Risk/Reward on SE will be favorable if the company has only grown. I am going to be extremely patient on SE but will be ready to hunt the discount if these gaps do become filled. I Will also keep my eye on the TTM_Squeeze on the MONTHLY chart, as the Monthly chart has been getting extreme momentum to the bearish side, and will look extremely oversold in the coming months with more downside. Thesis : Short to Gaps ; Long @ Gap Fills
NYSE:SE
by ZachSap
Can the Madness Continue for CELH?Celsius Holdings has been trading like a meme stock as of late. News of a deal with Pepsico helped fuel the recent surge in stock price. The question I pose is will this bullish momentum in CELH continue despite a slowing global economy? Technicals: There are strong signs of bearish divergences on monthly and weekly timeframes, slightly weaker bearish divergence can be observed on the daily as well. Price action recently surpassed all-time highs around the 110 mark. This could be a head-fake/bull trap, given that price has yet to retest the support of 110. On the other hand, MACD on the monthly, weekly, and daily timeframe are all signaling strong bullish momentum. Volume has been strong in the past couple of months of trading but a large part of that is due to Pepsi entering a 550 million dollar stake in Celsius. Possible cup and handle being formed but also could be a double top of sorts. Technicals for CELH are honestly not the worst, however, the bearish divergence on the RSI should come as a concern to Celsius holders and potential investors. Fundamentals: CELH has a 8.6 billion market cap. Just as some comparisons Lincoln National Corporation is worth around 8.4 billion and BJ's Wholesale Club is worth around 9.8 billion. Celsius has a Trailing P/E of 491 and forward P/E of 303. P/S of 18 and a price to book of 36. Not even Tesla has valuation metrics this inflated. To add to the bearish view, since 05/20/2020 CELH insiders have exclusively sold shares, i.e., 100% of Celsius executives' trades have been sales over the past two-plus years. Dumping a total of 14.6 million shares in that period. Along with this, Revenue growth is decelerating, and gross margins have been slowly declining for several years. As the US heads into an economic slowdown I cannot imagine a scenario where CELH will have meaningful pricing power or any demand inelasticity, as their products are just too new and unproven, and also yet to be adopted by most food and beverage retailers ( yes, I realize the Pepsi involvement will likely help with CELH adoption). CELH is a wildly overvalued company. Macro: Economies across the world are contracting rather quickly. PMI numbers came out earlier this month showing a slowing in business activity in both developed and emerging countries. Europe is facing the possibility of hyperinflation and the ECB is not signaling a stop anytime soon in Monetary tightening. With those headwinds in mind and many more -like a US housing recession- playing out over the next years, it is incredibly hard for me to see continued price appreciation in Celsius Holdings' stock. ' Prediction: In all honesty I have been dead wrong on this stock before. All though it's not my base case, I do think bullish momentum could carry this one up to as much as 145 a share in the short/med term. Although further appreciation is a possibility I really do not see this company performing well over the coming years. Over the coming years CELH should see a revisit of the 19.1-7.21 range before a bottom is in place. As always this is not financial advice. Good Luck!
NASDAQ:CELHShort
by Gooby_Trades
Does WING's Earnings Bounce Have Legs?WING has been an interesting story in the restaurant sector over the past 7 years. Wingstop has experienced above-average growth in both top and bottom line figures over this timeframe. Let us explore why this is the case and where the stock may go from here... Fundamentals: WING's fundamentals are nightmarish. Incredibly high levels of debt (likely why WING has been able to expand so quickly), negative stockholders equity, 17% of shares float are short, a forward P/E of 70, yoy revenue beginning to stall with current year-end revenue expectations up only 2-3% from 2021 year-end. WING's total liabilities make up more than double its total assets. The company is grossly overvalued, Wingstop's intrinsic value is roughly 35-45 dollars a share. This bounce off of earnings is unsustainable, to say the least. The company did not even post a beat, and its shares surge 20%... this move simply does not make sense. Technicals: Long-term uptrend still intact. This will change if a move below the A trend line occurs. Currently, WING is struggling to break above the short-term bearish trend line labeled as B . A touch at 128.43 resistance and a quick retreat back to trend line B leads me to believe this is a temporary bull run in what is a longer-term downtrend for WING. Global macro conditions: Tightening of financial conditions, supply chain woes, war, sanctions, Supply crunches in energy commodities, climate crises, hot inflation, political unrest, and sovereign default concerns intensifying -along with other factors- all play a role in a rapidly worsening macroeconomic narrative. These factors are often talked about by economists but I fear they are overlooked in cases such as these when the market rewards a weak growth stock such as WING with a massive bounce in price off of an average earnings report, all during an unprecedentedly difficult global economy. Targets: Unclear as to when WING will significantly fall in price. I think the deterioration of financial markets over the next few years will be serious- things will get worse and stay worse for longer than expected- and companies with trash fundamentals like WING will be the first to suffer. Needless to say, I would be short WING if given an option. I see a fall to 113.92 as a short-term lock. Longer term I expect a choppy downward trade from lower support levels to lower support levels eventually forming fresh lows at the 49.89 support level. Seems like a bit of a wild prediction I'm sure, but this is what I see. As always this is not trading advice, good luck!
NASDAQ:WINGShort
by Gooby_Trades
TSLA is currently not a buy neither a sellTSLA volatility increased heavily since Oktober 2021, this makes it more worth for Daytrader but less for Investors. Technically we are in a regression and we need to watch the mark $950 a lot. It seems we are creating a new channel between the two yellow lines, this means currently TSLA is overvalued at $950+ and undervalued at $750-. But due the volatility this is only meaningful if we keep the channel, the situation can rapidly change if we break one of this lines, as I said, not a nice situation for long term Investors. So keep on watch.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by TradeandGrow
TSLA Likely Started A Bear MarketI think in the last month we are beginning to see certain sectors of the market starting to crash, mostly technology sectors, like TSLA, AMD, NVDA, INTC,... You really don't have to be expert chart analyst to see that the whole stock market, especially technology sectors are extremely overvalued. It has never been anything like it, really for the past 90 years. The closest thing stock market has ever experienced I've warned with my previous ideas about what chart patterns are being printed on the major indexes like DJI and SPX. Both are in the stratosphere. Usually the first to finish the bull run are the big caps, from where money rotates into other sectors that are not that overvalued yet. I still expect the DJI to rise about 8% till finish so it does not mean that the whole stock market is bearish... TSLA probably is. It has reached beyond the full fib. extension over 6 year price range. It also made a standard top formation, where it makes new ath (Jan. '21), then have a first major profit take, makes another new ATH that is only slightly higher from previous one, then it starts a bear market. I will show examples later on on such tops. If it crashes into 600-700 area expect the price to retrace closely to 1k area, before the real crash began. Prices could eventually retest green rising trend line. I am not a financial advisor so non of this should be taken as a financial advise. NASDAQ:TSLA
NASDAQ:TSLA
by AVA37
ETH Bullish And Bearish Scenario - ETH In The Gray Area Eth is at really hard place right now. As with BTC its market cap chart has already extended aver all major fibonacci extension levels (will show the chart later in the update of this idea). While i am confident that BTC has entered a bear market, i am a little less with ETH. Imo there are two scenarios for eth, one is bullish , the other one is bearish . Whatever scenario first happens i think in both the price will likely pump a bit to retest a previous capitulation point (blue area). After that we should fall with BTC . If ETH is able to find support in the yellow area we should be able to eventually set a new ath , but not go above 6k as eth is very overvalued as it is with BTC . If we don't hold and fall in to the orange area or even set a new low, you can be quite shore that also eth has entered a bear market and the money will flow from BTC and eth into the rest of the alts as they are going into a ABC retracement. Again with BTC a am shore we are done, but not so much with eth as we need more information of the price in the near future. BINANCE:ETHUSDT
by AVA37
2
Tesla : good company but too expensiveTesla price have soared since I dare to check. People would argue between Tesla is a good company or it is just a hype stock that is in a bubble. I personally think it is a good company based on its cash flow financial health, its growth and profit. DCF valuation from more than 30+ analyst suggest it is extremely expensive/overvalued. Currently the fair value (aveaged) is around $878-$879 give or take. It's insane that only this May, $TSLA was roughly 35% undervalued when the market was selling it's stock for $586 I want to own $TSLA stock but I want to see the price break below the price structure at $977 and fills the gap and move as near as possible at $878.. lower the better.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by sufiansaid
2