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Trade Idea: DXY – SHORT (Conditional)DXY shows downside risk based on macro exhaustion and positioning dynamics: • Recent USD strength driven by event risk, not sustainable trend continuation • Inflation and labor data printing in-line → no upside surprise premium • COT positioning already crowded on the long side • Risk of mean reversion as market prices in peak USD narrative Execution Rules (non-negotiable): • Clear bearish pattern required on H4 / D1 • Entry only after confirmed downside breakout + structure close • EMA(89) alignment required (price acceptance below EMA) • Volume expansion preferred on breakdown Risk Framework: • Risk per trade: 0.5% • Stop Loss: ATR(15) × 1.5 • Minimum RR: ≥ 3R • Break-even at +0.25R Status DXY = Approved bearish bias, execution pending No pattern → no trade No breakout → no trade Process > Prediction Discipline > Outcome
TVC:DXYShort
by Trader_Geser
BTC how it happened , on the way to 75kOn the 24H liquidation heatmap, current price is sitting just above a major liquidation cluster around 77k–78k, which already got heavily tapped. Most downside liquidity has been cleared, while larger untouched clusters remain above, especially around 80k–82k. When price stalls after sweeping a dense lower pocket like this, it often sets up a rotation back toward higher liquidity, favoring a short-term upside move rather than further aggressive downside.
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by CryptoCoinsCoach
3 USDCHF Trades You Can Link TogetherIn this video, we break down three trading opportunities on USDCHF—two of which can be strategically combined. We start with a structure-based continuation trade, followed by a potential bearish Gartley pattern. What makes this setup unique is the overlap: the Gartley entry aligns with the structure trade’s target, creating an opportunity for a stop-and-reverse transition from one trade to the next. To round things out, we zoom out to the bigger picture and highlight a potential violation-and-run setup that could offer significant upside. If you have any questions or comments, please leave them below. Akil
by Akil_Stokes
Overlap resistance ahead?Loonie (USD/CAD) is rising towards the pivot, which is an overlap resistance and could reverse to the 1st support. Pivot: 1.3750 1st Support: 1.3426 1st Resistance: 1.3914 Disclaimer: The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party
Short
by IC Markets
Bearish continuation setup?Swissie (USD/CHF) is rising towards the pivot, which acts as a pullback resistance and could reverse to the 1st support. Pivot: 0.7899 1st Support: 0.7607 1st Resistance: 0.8145 Disclaimer: The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party
Short
by IC Markets
GBPUSD | FRGNT WEEKLY FORECAST | Q1 | W5 | Y26📅 Q1 | W5 | Y26 📊 GBPUSD — FRGNT WEEKLY FORECAST 🔍 Analysis Approach I’m applying a developed version of Smart Money Concepts, with a structured focus on: • Identifying Key Points of Interest (POIs) on Higher Time Frames (HTFs) 🕰️ • Using those POIs to define a clear and controlled trading range 📐 • Refining those zones on Lower Time Frames (LTFs) 🔎 • Waiting for a Break of Structure (BoS) as confirmation ✅ This process keeps me precise, disciplined, and aligned with market narrative, rather than reacting emotionally or chasing price. 💡 My Motto “Capital management, discipline, and consistency in your trading edge.” A positive risk-to-reward ratio, combined with a high-probability execution model, is the backbone of any sustainable trading plan 📈🔐 ⚠️ On Losses Losses are part of the mathematical reality of trading 🎲 They don’t define you — they are necessary, expected, and managed. We acknowledge them, learn, and move forward 📊➡️ 🙏 I appreciate you taking the time to review my Daily Forecast. Further context and supporting material can be found in the Links section. Stay sharp 🧠 Stay consistent 🎯 Protect your capital 🔐 — FRGNT 🚀📈 FX:GBPUSD
Long
by JCFRGNT
DXY | FRGNT WEEKLY FORECAST | Q1 | W5 | Y26📅 Q1 | W5 | Y26 📊 DXY — FRGNT WEEKLY FORECAST 🔍 Analysis Approach I’m applying a developed version of Smart Money Concepts, with a structured focus on: • Identifying Key Points of Interest (POIs) on Higher Time Frames (HTFs) 🕰️ • Using those POIs to define a clear and controlled trading range 📐 • Refining those zones on Lower Time Frames (LTFs) 🔎 • Waiting for a Break of Structure (BoS) as confirmation ✅ This process keeps me precise, disciplined, and aligned with market narrative, rather than reacting emotionally or chasing price. 💡 My Motto “Capital management, discipline, and consistency in your trading edge.” A positive risk-to-reward ratio, combined with a high-probability execution model, is the backbone of any sustainable trading plan 📈🔐 ⚠️ On Losses Losses are part of the mathematical reality of trading 🎲 They don’t define you — they are necessary, expected, and managed. We acknowledge them, learn, and move forward 📊➡️ 🙏 I appreciate you taking the time to review my Daily Forecast. Further context and supporting material can be found in the Links section. Stay sharp 🧠 Stay consistent 🎯 Protect your capital 🔐 — FRGNT 🚀📈 TVC:DXY
TVC:DXYLong
by JCFRGNT
Orion Minerals Limited (ORN) - JSE Orion’s shares have been volatile over recent months after capital raising news and project developments. In late 2025, the stock traded lower compared with earlier highs, with a notable drop (~17.4%) reported around October 2025 following its financial results and ongoing work programs. At that time, shares were trading around the ~19 c level, down from ~22 c a year earlier. Orion is progressing its flagship Prieska Copper-Zinc Mine project, moving toward construction and aiming for first concentrate production by late 2026. The project has signed a framework financing and offtake term sheet with Glencore (US$200–250 million) to support development and future concentrate sales. ummary of the current picture: Orion Minerals is in a development phase, heavily focused on funding and advancing its copper-zinc projects. Share price has moved lower compared with earlier peaks, partly due to capital raises and operating losses, while the company builds toward projected production milestones by late 2026. Insider participation and project financing deals are notable catalysts watched by the market, though broader analyst sentiment remains cautious.
JSE:ORNLong
by Prof_Invests_ZA
Dash Traders Are Walking into a Trap, Is the Next Big Collapse?Yello Paradisers! Are you watching what’s happening with #DASH right now? Because this move might be the last warning before a much deeper drop. We’ve spotted a series of red flags, and the chart is speaking loud and clear smart money is positioning, and it’s not on the bullish side, Even more importantly, #DASH swept the upper trigger line of buying climax. The price action on higher timeframes shows a clear bearish structure there is a major probability for the downside move. 💎#DASH breaks the lower trigger line of the buying climax, strongly suggesting that institutional players are offloading and preparing for more downside move according to volume spread analysis (VSA). 💎#DASH has swept the upper trigger line of the buying climax with Upthrust test, a key sign of manipulation. This is where weak hands are baited in before a reversal. The sweep confirms that institutional players are active and positioning on the bearish side, if momentum holds within the supply zone, the next probability of major target sits around 20 that could be tested soon which is a major support and structure level. 💎#DASH descending resistance remains intact, attempted to break above it but failed, there is a probability that sellers are still in control. As long as momentum stays below the Order Block and Fair Value Gap (FVG) zone, the probability of next logical move is down toward 37, a minor support level before lower targets. 💎If #DASH manages to break above the key resistance at 98 with a strong momentum candle, this whole bearish probability would be invalidated, and we could instead see a bullish continuation. As always, we let price confirm our bias. Discipline is key, Paradisers! The charts may look volatile, but this is where professionals thrive and amateurs panic. Don’t let emotions guide your trades. Wait for clear confirmation and manage risk like a pro. Strive for consistency, not quick profits. Treat the market as a businessman, not as a gambler. MyCryptoParadise iFeel the success🌴
Short
by MyCryptoParadise
2
EURNZD: +1920 Pips Swing Sell to compete by 2026?EURNZD has been declining since NZD became the strongest currency at the current market. Our two entries are currently performing well but there’s a strong chance the price will drop around 1920+ pips. This would be one of the biggest drops EURNZD could experience. The timeline for this trading setup to complete is by 2026. It’s also not confirmed and the price could take longer to reach our take profit. If you enjoy our work, please like and comment. Don’t forget to follow us for more! Team Setupsfx_
Short
by Setupsfx_
2
BTCUSD- SetupBias: Bearish continuation Context: Rejection from supply + weak acceptance above resistance 🔴 Resistance / Supply 84,400 – 84,660 Prior rejection + volume imbalance Price failed to hold above this zone 🟢 Entry Short on rejection below 83,800 – 84,000 Confirmation: bearish close / weak pullback 🎯 Targets TP1: 83,100 TP2: 82,000 TP3: 80,600 (range low / liquidity sweep) ❌ Invalidation Clean hold above 84,660 Idea; Acceptance failed above resistance Low-volume area below → expect fast downside expansion
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Fm254
4
AI momentum will aggressively head to other biotech soonI feel like we will see some awesome advancements in healthcare from AI soon. AI impact feels a bit less extraordinary in my day to day. Then you see the robotaxis. Then you see the Optimus stuff. The defence applications. Its coming for drug development and more tangible healthcare outcomes soon. Could be in healthcare insurance optimisation in the old traditional healthcare stuff. Could be in drug development and timelines in the newer biotech things. Its coming, and it will come faster than I expect. Nothing here is outrageous. Pharma can bring drugs to market faster than ever and have some of the largest TAMs. Take my money and sell me more drugs. Few boxes and squiggly lines makes me think the rotation has begun. NYSE:NVO bottoming recently was a good sign. Consolidation in Cathy's ARKG around $30 gives me some confidence too. Trends look favourable. NYSE:LLY 's yo yo ing but recent stability above $1000 makes me feel good too.
CBOE:ARKGLong
by curious_bogan
2
EURUSD H4 - OUTLOOKEURUSD – H4 Outlook EURUSD is currently in a short-term pullback after a strong bullish expansion. Price is reacting lower from the highs, with structure still bullish on H4. The main reaction zone lies at the H4 demand/order block around 1.1740 – 1.1725, aligned with the previous BOS. A pullback into this area is expected to attract buyers. Key Levels - Retracement zone: 1.1770 → 1.1740 - Bullish continuation: Rejection from demand & H4 close above 1.1800 - Upside targets: 1.1900 → 1.1970 Bias remains bullish as long as demand holds. Waiting for confirmation at the zone offers optimal risk-to-reward.
Short
by AlaminTrades
Down for EUHi traders, Last week EU went up very impulsive as I said in my outlook. When it came into the bearish Weekly FVG it rejected to the downside. The wavecount was invalidated so I've updated it. Next week we should see more downside for this pair (red wave 4?) and after that it could go up again. But if price closes below the bullish Weekly FVG we could see a big drop for this pair. Let's see what the market does and react. Trade idea: Wait for the reaction of price when it comes into the bullish Weekly FVG. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis. But I react and trade on what I see on the chart, not what I've predicted or expect. Manage your emotions, trade your edge! Eduwave
Short
by EduwaveTrading
$JOBY - A High-Stakes Bet on a Vertical Integration PioneerSynthesized Investment Thesis for Joby Aviation (JOBY): A High-Stakes Bet on a Vertical Integration Pioneer in a Nascent Industry Joby Aviation stands at the forefront of the electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) revolution, distinguished by its vertically integrated, service-oriented business model. While this approach offers the potential for superior long-term economics and control, it also amplifies financial risk and execution complexity. The investment case is a stark balance between Joby's clear lead in the regulatory race and the profound challenges of capital intensity, future dilution, and disruptive competition. Part 1: The Strategic Differentiation – Vertical Integration vs. Asset-Light Models Joby's core strategy sets it apart from competitors like Archer Aviation (ACHR): Joby's Model: Aims to be a full-stack mobility service provider—designing, manufacturing, owning, and operating its eVTOL aircraft. This provides maximum control over the customer experience, branding, and operational margins but requires immense upfront capital. Archer's Model (For Contrast): Functions more as an Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM), selling aircraft to third-party operators. This is an asset-light model that generates revenue sooner and may reduce capital burden but cedes control of the end-service. This fundamental difference means Joby's success is tied to building an entire ecosystem (aircraft, vertiports, operations), making its path to profitability longer and more capital-intensive, but potentially more lucrative if successful. Part 2: The Paramount Risk Assessment – A Multi-Layer Challenge Investing in JOBY requires a clear-eyed view of its significant risks, which extend beyond typical pre-revenue company concerns: Regulatory & Certification Risk (Near-Term): While in the "final stage" of FAA certification—a notable lead—approval is not guaranteed. Any delays or unexpected requirements in this phase could significantly impact timelines and burn more capital. Extreme Capital Intensity & Inevitable Dilution (Medium-Term): The vertical integration model is a cash furnace. Wall Street consensus projects a cash burn of $646 million in 2026 alone. Starting 2026 with ~$710 million in net cash, the company will almost certainly need to raise significant capital in 2026 to fund manufacturing scale-up, vertiport development, and fleet deployment. This will very likely come through an equity offering, substantially diluting existing shareholders. The Existential Long-Term Threat: Autonomous Competition: The most underdiscussed yet profound risk comes from Boeing's subsidiary, Wisk, and its plan for a pilotless, autonomous eVTOL. An autonomous vehicle could fundamentally undercut Joby's cost structure (eliminating pilot salaries) and challenge its service model. While autonomous flight faces greater technical and regulatory hurdles, it represents a potential paradigm shift that could disrupt Joby's first-mover advantage over a longer horizon. Part 3: The Bull Case & Upside Potential – The First-Mover Advantage Despite the risks, Joby possesses formidable strengths that justify its leadership position: Certification Lead: Being ahead in the FAA process is a massive, defensible moat. It can mean being first to market, securing prime vertiport locations, and establishing brand recognition. Blue-Chip Partnership Ecosystem: Strategic alliances with Delta Air Lines (for airport transfers), Toyota (for manufacturing expertise), Uber (for ride-hailing integration), and Nvidia (for autonomous tech development) provide credibility, operational synergy, and a potential roadmap to counter the autonomous threat. Vertical Integration Upside: If successfully scaled, owning the entire value chain could lead to higher margins, a superior and consistent customer experience, and greater control over the technological roadmap compared to an OEM model. Part 4: Technical Framework & Portfolio Strategy Given the binary and volatile nature of the stock, a disciplined technical and portfolio approach is non-negotiable: Critical Support Level: $12.96 (0.236 Fibonacci level) is identified as major support. This level must hold to maintain the stock's bullish structure following its initial post-SPAC volatility. A sustained break below could indicate a failure of market confidence in the near-term thesis. Profit-Taking Targets: In a successful scenario, $9.00 and $8.00 are outlined as take-profit levels. This may seem counterintuitive (being below the support), but it likely reflects a strategy of selling into strength during a rally or scaling out of a position as it approaches key resistance levels from a lower entry point. It underscores the tactical, rather than buy-and-hold, approach required for such a volatile asset. Position Sizing: This should be treated as a high-risk, speculative position. It warrants only capital that an investor is prepared to lose entirely, sized appropriately within a diversified portfolio. Integrated Final Judgment & Strategic Recommendation Joby Aviation is a venture capital-style investment masquerading as a public stock. It is suited only for investors with a very high risk tolerance, a long-term horizon (5-10 years), and a deep conviction in the Urban Air Mobility (UAM) thesis. The Verdict: JOBY is riskier but potentially more rewarding than peers like Archer. The vertical integration model is a "go big or go home" strategy. The stock is a bet on management's ability to: Secure FAA certification on time. Raise massive capital without crippling dilution. Scale manufacturing and operations flawlessly. Navigate or eventually adopt autonomous technology to compete with Wisk. Investment Approach: For New Investors: Extreme caution is advised. Any entry should be small and staggered. The anticipated 2026 capital raise could present a volatile, potentially lower-priced entry point. For Current Investors: Hold with eyes wide open to dilution risk. The $12.96 support is crucial to monitor. Have a clear plan for taking partial profits (e.g., at the mentioned $9.00/$8.00 targets) to manage risk if the stock runs on certification news, while retaining a core position for the long-term service rollout. In conclusion, Joby Aviation offers a pure, leveraged play on the UAM future with a specific, high-control business model. Its first-mover status and elite partnerships are compelling, but they are counterbalanced by a frightening cash burn profile and a looming autonomous competitor. Success is not assured, but for those willing to shoulder the exceptional risk, the rewards could be transformative. This is not an investment; it is a speculation on the execution of a grand vision.
NYSE:JOBYLong
by KalaGhazi
XAGUSD (Silver) – Daily Technical AnalysisSilver experienced a parabolic rally, followed by a massive bearish capitulation candle. This signals a transition from euphoria into a major decision zone, not just a normal pullback. Key Observation The blue circles mark previous successful MA retests, each leading to continuation. However, this time price was extremely overextended, making the current test far more fragile. Current Structure • Price is testing the rising MA • MA slope is still bullish but flattening • Recent drop reflects forced liquidation Key Levels • Critical Support: 72 – 75 • Next Support: 60 – 65 • Resistance: 90 – 95 • Major Resistance: 105 – 110 Bullish Scenario If price: • Holds above MA • Closes daily candles above 75 ➡️ A recovery rally is possible. Bearish Scenario If: • MA fails • Price accepts below 72 ➡️ The parabolic trend fully resets. Final Takeaway Parabolic markets don’t correct politely. They either cool down with time — or violently with price.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by isahebdadi