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Parallel Channel

NETSOL – Bullish Reversal Setup! 1:3 Risk/Reward Play Awaits VolNetSol Technologies (NETSOL) is forming a bullish reversal pattern on 4H — and the reward potential is huge! Entry zone: 133.67 - 135.67 TP1: 140.35 TP2: 146.93 TP3: 154.09 (+17% upside) Risk/Reward = 1:3 — exceptional for swing trade Key Condition: Wait for high volume on breakout or retest — no chase without confirmation! Disclaimer: This idea is intended for educational and research purposes, based on technical patterns. It is not investment advice. Always conduct your own analysis (DYOR) and manage your risk carefully before entering any trade.
PSX:NETSOLLong
by MindTrade_2026
1
Technical Analysis of GOOG (1H Timeframe)The price is currently oscillating inside a short-term descending channel. Multiple touches on both the upper and lower boundaries increase the pattern’s reliability. The SMA50 is positioned slightly above the price and is acting as resistance for now. This structure suggests that the market is trapped between two scenarios and is likely to experience a breakout or breakdown soon. Bullish Scenario If the price breaks above the channel resistance (around 319–320) and closes a confirming candle above it: Targets • Target 1 → 323 • Target 2 → 327–328 (full channel breakout) • Target 3 → 332 Stop-Loss • A close below 313 Bullish Reasons • EMA/SMA are beginning to flatten and may shift back upward • Price action at the channel bottom signals active demand • A bullish reversal pattern often forms after a short-term descending channel Bearish Scenario If the price breaks below the channel support at 310: Targets • Target 1 → 304–305 • Target 2 → 298–300 • Target 3 → 292 Stop-Loss • A close back above 316–317 Bearish Reasons • The MA50 is currently acting as resistance • The descending channel has strong validity • Multiple rejections at the channel top Quick Summary • GOOG is compressed inside a short-term descending channel. • Break above 320 → continuation of the bullish move. • Break below 310 → deeper correction likely. • For now, the market is in a neutral to slightly bearish stance.
NASDAQ:GOOGLong
by isahebdadi
BTCUSDT: Buyers Regain Control — $96,000 in FocusHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current BTCUSDT setup. Market Analysis Bitcoin is transitioning from a broader bearish phase into a developing bullish structure. After a prolonged decline inside a well-defined downward channel, BTC formed a base near the $89,600 support zone, where strong buyer interest appeared. Multiple breakouts and fake breakouts around this level confirmed accumulation and growing bullish pressure. Following this reversal, price broke out of the bearish channel and entered a new ascending channel, forming higher highs and higher lows. Currently, BTCUSDT is consolidating inside this upward structure and trading below the key $96,000 resistance, which remains the major obstacle for buyers. Several false breakouts near this resistance indicate that sellers are still active in this area. However, as long as price holds above the $89,600 support, the bullish structure remains valid and buyers stay in control. My Scenario & Strategy My scenario is bullish as long as BTCUSDT stays above the $89,600 support zone and continues to respect the ascending channel structure. I expect the price to gradually build momentum and attempt a retest of the $96,000 resistance. A clean and confident breakout above this level would confirm further upside continuation and open the way for higher targets. However, if the price fails to break $96,000 and shows strong rejection, a short-term pullback toward the lower channel support may occur. For now, the market favors buyers, with $96,000 as the key upside objective. That's the setup I'm tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
Long
by Ratner
14
Accenture plc ACN Multi Timeframe Channel AnalysisAccenture plc (ACN) Multi Timeframe Channel Analysis 1. Long-Term Structure This analysis is built on three major structural channels: 24-year channel 5-year channel 3-year extended channel Price is currently positioned at a rare triple confluence zone, touching: The bottom of the 24-year channel The bottom of the 5-year channel The extended lower boundary of the 3-year channel This alignment significantly strengthens the probability of a medium-term bullish reversal. 2. Reversal Signals At the channel confluence, price completed a clean Ending Diagonal pattern and reacted strongly, showing: Powerful bullish divergences on momentum indicators A decisive breakout from the diagonal structure These signals collectively confirm a strong demand zone and a potential macro reversal. 3. Wave Count and Bullish Scenario Following the breakout, price has started to build a five-wave impulsive structure. After breaking its key level, ACN is now positioned in wave 3 of 3, which is typically the strongest part of the move. Minimum upside target: 310 This level aligns with structural resistance and wave projections. 4. Final Notes This is my personal analysis I’d be glad to hear your views. For more detailed breakdowns and live swing trades on stocks, feel free to follow me on TradingView.
NYSE:ACNLong
by AG-Precision-Trading
XAUUSD Range Resistance Holds — Pullback Toward $4,170 in FocusHello, traders! Here’s my technical outlook on GOLD (XAUUSD) based on the current market structure visible on the chart. After a strong rebound from the previous lower demand area, price moved into a steady ascending structure, respecting the rising Support Line and forming higher highs and higher lows. This bullish impulse later transitioned into a corrective consolidation, where Gold entered a well-defined range below the major 4,260 resistance level. The repeated rejection from this resistance confirms strong selling pressure at the top of the range, while buyers continue to defend the 4,170 support level, keeping price compressed between these key boundaries.Currently, XAUUSD is trading inside this consolidation box, while also respecting the descending short-term resistance line from the recent swing highs. The market previously broke out from the bullish channel and is now showing signs of weakness beneath the upper boundary of the range, suggesting that upside momentum is fading. As long as price remains capped below 4,260, the risk of a deeper corrective move remains elevated.My primary scenario is bearish as long as Gold stays below the 4,260 resistance and continues to respect the descending resistance line. I expect price to gradually move lower toward the TP1 target at 4,170, which is the first key support inside the structure. If selling pressure accelerates and this level fails to hold, the next downside objective stands at TP2 around 4,120, where stronger demand could emerge. A clear breakdown below TP1 would confirm bearish continuation. However, if price reclaims 4,260 with strong momentum, this bearish setup would be invalidated and the bullish trend could resume. For now, the structure favors a corrective pullback toward 4,170–4,120. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
THINKMARKETS:XAUUSDShort
by LegionQ8
50
GOLD → Positive fundamental background. Focus on 4200 FX:XAUUSD is testing the $4,250 level amid news momentum related to interest rate cuts. The fundamental backdrop is improving, with the dollar entering a downward trend... The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%, as expected. Powell's tone was cautious rather than hawkish, which weakened the dollar and Treasury yields. The market expects two rate cuts next year, compared to one in the Fed's forecasts - Focus has shifted to US employment data (jobless claims). The next key risk will be next week's NFP data. The Fed's decision provided support for gold, but for growth above $4250, confirmation of a weakening labor market in upcoming reports will be needed. Technically, the focus is on the 4200-4220 zone. Resistance levels: 4220, 4250, 4260 Support levels: 4200, 4180, 4175 Consolidation above 4200 will confirm the bullish sentiment, while a breakout and consolidation above 4220 will open up a new chance for growth towards the resistance of the range. I do not rule out the possibility of a retest the support of the range at 4181 before moving up (the price is still in a sideways trend). Best regards, R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
18
AUDUSD → Readiness for distribution within the uptrend FX:AUDUSD breaks through the resistance of a wide trading range (consolidation) and is preparing for growth. Important news ahead... Ahead of the Fed's interest rate meeting, the dollar broke its upward trend and is storming support, hinting at a readiness to fall. The probability of a rate cut is 90%, and a fall in the dollar could trigger growth in the currency pair. The currency pair is breaking through the consolidation resistance at 0.6628 and forming consolidation in a long zone. A trigger of 0.6649 appears on the chart - a breakout and close above this zone will trigger growth and a distribution phase. Resistance levels: 0.6649, 0.67, 0.68 Support levels: 0.6628, 0.6581 Before rising, the price may test support (the previously broken trading range boundary). However, a breakout and close above 0.6649 could trigger a distribution phase towards 0.67-0.68, especially against the backdrop of a weak dollar... Best regards, R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
2
Weekly support zone can pump DOGE above 0.15$ soonAs observed on the chart, DOGE is consolidating within a range near two key weekly support levels: $0.13 and $0.09. The price is currently holding firmly at the higher support zone ($0.13), indicating potential accumulation. The first confirmed signal for a bullish reversal would be a decisive breakout above the $0.15 resistance level, ideally accompanied by rising volume. Such a breakout would likely shift market structure in favor of the bulls and could initiate a new upward cycle. Based on the depth of the current range, measured move projections suggest a potential upside of 2x to 3x from the breakout zone, provided momentum and buying pressure are sustained. DISCLAIMER: ((trade based on your own decision)) <<press like👍 if you enjoy💚
Long
by MMBTtrader
1
Apple to NVIDIAApple vs. NVIDIA Chart Analysis Does anyone know something we don’t? This chart compares Apple to NVIDIA. As you can see, Apple relative to NVIDIA has completed a clear five-wave structure within a descending channel. Price has now reached the end of wave 5 at the bottom of its 11-year channel, showing a very sharp reaction along with strong divergences in both RSI and MACD on the monthly and weekly timeframes. Based on this, price appears highly likely to rise, potentially reaching at least the channel’s upper boundary. Potential Scenarios This chart outlines four possible scenarios: 1.Both stocks rise, but Apple outperforms NVIDIA. 2.Both stocks decline, but Apple’s drop is more limited. 3.NVIDIA declines, but Apple rises. 4.NVIDIA consolidates, while Apple rises. The trigger comes from RSI, which, considering the lower timeframe divergence on Chart B, provides reasonable reliability. For additional confirmation, one can wait for a key line breakout. Final Notes This is my personal analysis. I’d be glad to hear your thoughts. Follow me on TradingView to access more in-depth analyses and live stock trades.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by AG-Precision-Trading
EURUSD Short: Correction Deepens — Market Targets at 1.1590Hello, traders! The current EURUSD price action shows a well-structured reaction between the Supply and Demand zones, with price respecting key levels and channel formations. Earlier, the market traded inside a Range phase, signaling indecision before breaking the range to the upside and forming a clean bullish leg. However, this upward move was capped by the major Supply Zone near 1.16800, where sellers stepped in and pushed price lower. After the rejection from supply, EURUSD broke below the ascending channel, confirming a shift in short-term momentum. The pair then retested the mid-structure area, where another breakout occurred, indicating sustained bearish pressure. With each channel break, sellers strengthened their control, creating a series of lower highs within a corrective structure. Currently, EURUSD is trading below the most recent ascending channel, aiming toward the 1.15900 Demand Zone, which remains the key area where buyers previously generated strong bullish impulses. This level aligns with the next major liquidity pool and stands as the primary downside target. My scenario as long as price stays below 1.16800 supply and continues respecting the bearish breakout structure, the expectation is for the market to move lower toward 1.15900 Demand. A clear reaction from demand could initiate a bullish corrective move, but without a confirmed breakout above supply, any upside remains limited. A firm break below 1.15900 would invalidate potential reversal scenarios and open the path for deeper downside continuation. Manage your risk!
Short
by heniitrading
26
XAUUSD Long: Demand Holds — Price Aiming for $4,260 RetestHello, traders! The current price action on GOLD (XAUUSD) is developing within a clearly defined ascending channel, showing that the broader bullish structure remains intact despite recent corrective movements. Earlier, the market formed a Double Top pattern near the upper Supply Zone around $4,260, which triggered a bearish reaction and a downside breakout from that distribution phase. After this rejection, price moved into a corrective decline, respecting the Triangle Supply and Demand lines, where multiple breakouts confirmed increasing volatility and active participation from both buyers and sellers. Following the corrective phase, Gold reached a key Pivot Point near the lower Triangle Demand Line, where strong buying interest appeared and initiated a bullish reversal. From this base, price broke back above resistance and entered the current Ascending Channel, forming higher highs and higher lows. Currently, XAUUSD is consolidating near the $4,190–$4,200 Demand Zone, where buyers are actively defending the structure. The market is holding above channel support, suggesting that bullish momentum is stabilizing after the pullback. My scenario remains bullish as long as price stays above the highlighted Demand Zone around $4,180–$4,190 and continues to respect the lower boundary of the ascending channel. I expect Gold to gradually build momentum and attempt another move toward the $4,260 Resistance level, which represents the next major target and the top of the recent supply area. A confident breakout above this zone would signal trend continuation and open the door for further upside. However, a failure to hold current demand could trigger a deeper correction back toward the lower channel area. For now, the structure favors buyers, with $4,260 as the main upside objective. Manage your risk!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by heniitrading
34
Dollar Index at Critical Support — Is a Big USD Rally Coming?Today I want to analyze the DXY index( TVC:DXY ) for you, which is one of the key indices in the financial markets. At the moment, the DXY index is moving near a support zone($98.85-$98.50), Monthly Support (1) level, and the 21_SMA(Weekly). In addition, the DXY has been trending inside a descending channel for roughly the past 13 trading days. The main question is whether the DXY can break below this confluence of support levels or not. Looking at the 4-hour chart, we can identify a Morning Star candlestick reversal pattern, and there is also a clear bullish Regular Divergence (RD+) between the last two lows. Moreover, the US 10-Year Government Bond Yield ( TVC:US10 ) appears bullish in my view — and its upward movement can potentially support a rise in the DXY as well. From my perspective, the best currency pairs to capitalize on a stronger USD are USDJPY( FX:USDJPY ) and EURUSD( FX:EURUSD ). We should also keep in mind that several important US economic indicators will be released this week, which could significantly impact market direction. So be extra cautious with your positions, especially during data releases: JOLTS Job Openings➡️09 December Federal Funds Rate➡️10 December FOMC Statement➡️10 December FOMC Press Conference➡️10 December Unemployment Claims➡️11 December I expect that once the DXY breaks above the upper line of the descending channel, it could at least move toward one of the higher Fibonacci levels. Do you think the U.S. interest rate will be cut this week? 💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely. 📌U.S. Dollar index Analysis (DXYUSD), 4-hour time frame. 🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open. ✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too! 🔥 If you find it helpful, please BOOST this post and share it with your friends.
TVC:DXYLong
by pejman_zwin
1
EURUSD Shot Position1) Short-Term Price Action (1H Chart) EUR/USD FX:EURUSD has strongly broken out of its channel on the 1-hour timeframe and is now trading within the extended channel toward the gap zone. 2) Gap Zone & Key Levels The gap zone aligns with the 50% level of the larger 4-hour channel. This zone presents a high potential for price to reverse downward. 3) Reversal & Resistance Zones The main reversal area could be the resistance zone, especially where it coincides with a strong supply zone. Both the resistance and supply zones are key levels for potential selling opportunities. 4) Demand Zone & Short-Term Reaction If price declines, it is likely to reach at least the demand zone, which may trigger a short-term bullish reaction. 5) Risk Disclaimer This analysis reflects my personal view. Always trade based on your own strategy and trading system, and strictly follow risk and money management rules. I’d be happy if you follow me to catch all my market analyses and live stock trades in real time.
Short
by AG-Precision-Trading
NZDUSD - Triple Confluence Zone in Play!NZDUSD has been in a steady bearish trend, but the pair is now reaching a major confluence area that could act as a strong turning point. 🔎The blue circle marks the intersection of two descending trendlines and a key demand zone, making it a massive area to look for long opportunities. ⚔️This triple intersection increases the probability of a bullish rebound, especially as the pair is also showing signs of being oversold. A potential rejection from this zone could trigger a short-term correction toward the upper orange trendline, aligning with the next resistance area. 🏹As long as this demand zone holds , the bulls have a chance to step in and shift short-term momentum upward. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly. 📊All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
Long
by TheSignalyst
6
EUR/USD is positioned at the top of two long-term channelsAs you can see, EUR/USD OANDA:EURUSD is currently testing the upper boundary of two major channels on both the weekly and daily timeframes. 1) Daily Timeframe Analysis On the daily chart, the dollar completed a five-wave impulsive move into the channel’s upper resistance. After reaching this level, price has started a correction. Wave A has already finished with a clear five-wave structure. Price is now forming wave B. Based on the current structure, wave B is likely to extend: At minimum, into the Gap Zone, and At maximum, into the Resistance Zone (both areas are clearly marked on the daily chart). From either of these areas, I expect the beginning of wave C, which will likely push the pair down toward the Support Zone. 2) Weekly Timeframe Confirmation In the weekly chart (Chart B), EUR/USD has reached: The top of its major ascending channel, and The 100% extension of the previous leg. This confluence significantly strengthens the bearish scenario. 3) Additional Charts Coming I will also upload the hourly EUR/USD chart on my TradingView page to provide a clearer and more detailed outlook. 4) Follow for More Analysis Feel free to follow me on TradingView to catch all my analyses and live stock trades. I’d be happy to hear your thoughts and feedback.
Short
by AG-Precision-Trading
EURUSD: Price Holds Channel Support, Aiming for 1.1680Hello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current EURUSD setup. Market Analysis EURUSD remains in a broader bullish structure, with recent price action developing inside a well-defined ascending channel. After a strong impulsive rally, the pair broke above the previous consolidation zone and confirmed the breakout with a successful retest of the 1.16100 support zone, which now acts as a key demand area. The market then continued higher, forming higher highs and higher lows along the channel structure. Currently, price is consolidating below the 1.16800 resistance zone, which represents a major supply area and the upper boundary of the current bullish leg. Despite short-term consolidation, buyers continue to defend the support zone, keeping bullish pressure intact. My Scenario & Strategy My scenario remains bullish as long as EURUSD holds above the 1.16100–1.16200 support zone and respects the ascending channel structure. I expect the price to continue pressing toward the 1.16800 resistance, which is the next major target for buyers. A clean and sustained breakout above this resistance would open the way for further upside continuation and new highs. However, if price fails to break the resistance and shows strong rejection, a short-term pullback toward the mid-channel or back into the support zone is possible. Still, the overall bullish structure remains valid as long as the lower channel boundary holds. For now, the market supports a long bias, with the main objective being a retest of the 1.16800 resistance zone. That's the setup I'm tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
Long
by Ratner
27
GOLD → Consolidation ahead of the Fed's interest rate decision FX:XAUUSD is rebounding from resistance at the local range of 4220 and heading towards support at the liquidity zone of 4175. Ahead is the Fed meeting on interest rates, where rates are likely to be lowered. What to expect? The probability of a 25 bp rate cut today is ≈90%. JOLTS job vacancy data reduced the chances of easing in January to ≈20%. Attention is shifting to the Fed's rate forecasts for 2026 and the tone of Powell's comments — the balance of votes in the FOMC (the ratio of “hawks” to “doves”) will determine the further course. In the current case, it is worth looking not only at the fact of the rate cut, which is most likely already priced in. What is important to us are the regulator's comments and political stance. If they say that the pace of rate cuts will slow down in the future, the dollar may fly up and gold down. If they support further rate cuts, the dollar will go down and gold up. Resistance levels: 4220, 4266 Support levels: 4200, 4175, 4165 It would be a shock to the market if rates were cut by 50 points; the chances are slim, but they exist. In this case, gold would soar. However, the most likely scenario is described above. Technically, I expect a retest of the trading range support; in the worst case, gold may fall to 4140 - 4120 - 4100 before rising. High volatility is possible in the evening! Best regards, R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
18
BITCOIN → False breakout of resistance on a downtrend BINANCE:BTCUSDT is consolidating in the range of 86K - 92K, bears are holding resistance amid a global downtrend, traders lack drivers... Fundamentally, sentiment in the crypto market is weak, and there is increasing talk of a crypto winter, especially among companies that previously actively bought cryptocurrencies for their balance sheets. There is no bullish driver at the moment. Bitcoin is in a neutral state, with the market holding the price below 93K. The fundamental background is unstable, and technically, the market is in a downtrend. A reversal pattern is forming relative to 92K, and a retest and false breakout of the zone of interest could trigger a decline to the support range. Locally, we are seeing an upward channel, but this is a correction against the backdrop of the global trend. If the bears keep the price below 92K, the decline may continue. However, a breakout of 94K and a close above that level could trigger an upward momentum... Resistance levels: 91850, 92700, 93700 Support levels: 88000, 86300 A false breakout and price consolidation in the short zone could cause further sell-offs towards the areas of interest located at the bottom of the trading range. Best regards, R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
9
XMR - Institutional Analysis: Channel Support Buy Zone | Dec 7XMRUSD - The Privacy Resistance: How Regulatory War Created The Perfect Parallel Channel Setup by officialjackofalltrades 🟡 CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH December 7, 2025 Institutional Technical Analysis | Whale Signals Integrated 📈 Executive Summary - The Setup Current Price: $372.78 | December 7, 2025 Monero is trading at a critical inflection point inside a well-defined parallel channel that has dictated price action for the past 90 days. After a spectacular +23% rally to $420 in the first week of December, XMR has pulled back to test lower channel support at $370-380 exactly where technical analysis suggests the next major move will be decided. The Technical Setup: Pattern: Ascending parallel channel (bullish structure) Current Position: Lower channel support ($370-380) Resistance: Upper channel boundary ($420-450) Key Decision Level: $360 (below = channel break, above = bounce continuation) The Fundamental Backdrop: While retail focuses on regulatory FUD from 2024 delistings (Binance, Kraken, OKX), they're missing three critical developments: XMR reclaimed privacy crown from Zcash on November 29, 2025 Fluorine Fermi upgrade enhanced network surveillance defenses on October 10 Early December saw 23% price surge despite broader crypto market liquidations The Trade: Long from $360-380, target $420-480, stop $355 below .. Monero's price on December 7, 2025, is fluctuating approximately between $390 and $400, with some reports indicating a notable 23% increase in the first week, pushing its average trading price to $406 and briefly reaching a short-run high of $420 . What This Means: The $420 short-run high demonstrates XMR's technical strength even as it tests the upper boundary of the channel. The current pullback to $372 is textbook technical behavior—price respecting the parallel structure. Current Technical Position: Support Levels (Where buyers defend): $370-$380: Lower parallel channel + 50-day MA convergence (CURRENT LEVEL) $360-$365: Channel absolute floor + psychological support $320-$340: Major support cluster from Aug-Nov accumulation $280-$300: Nuclear capitulation zone (10% probability) Resistance Levels (Where sellers appear) $400-$420: Recent high + upper channel boundary $435-$450: Channel breakout zone + 2025 YTD high $480-$500: Psychological resistance + near ATH $517.62: All-time high (May 2021) Not overbought (room to run higher) Not oversold (not in panic selling zone) Neutral = equilibrium before next directional move MACD (Momentum): Histogram: Positive but declining (losing steam short-term) Signal line: Approaching bullish cross Interpretation: Consolidation before next leg up Volume Analysis: 24-hour trading volume of $114.56M - this is concerning. Volume has been declining since the December 3 peak, indicating: Thin liquidity from exchange delistings Lower participation = higher volatility potential Breakouts need VOLUME confirmation 🔎 Fundamental Analysis - The Regulatory War Creates Opportunity While technical analysis shows the "what" and "when," fundamentals explain the "why." Here's what's REALLY happening with Monero: CATALYST #1: The Exchange Delisting Paradox The Bearish Narrative (What retail sees): Binance delisted XMR February 2024 OKX delisted XMR January 2024 Kraken delisted XMR in EEA October 2024 "Privacy coins are dying!" The Reality (What institutions know): Monero founder Riccardo Spagni said: "Kraken delisting Monero in Europe just goes to prove what we already know: Chainalysis et al. simply can't squeeze enough information out of Monero's privacy to be meaningful, otherwise regulators would want Monero to stay listed as a honeypot". Read that again. The delistings PROVE Monero's privacy works. If regulators could track Monero, they'd WANT it listed to monitor users. The fact they're forcing delistings means they can't break the privacy. Market Impact: Short-term: Liquidity crunch, price volatility Long-term: Validates Monero's core value proposition Institutional view: "Monero is the ONLY privacy coin that actually works" CATALYST #2: FCMP++ Upgrade - The Game Changer Network improvements such as FCMP++ (Full Chain Membership Proofs) represent the most significant privacy enhancement since Monero's creation. What FCMP++ Does: Removes the need for ring signatures with fixed size Enables membership proofs over the ENTIRE blockchain Makes transaction tracing mathematically impossible (not just difficult) Reduces transaction size = lower fees A breakout imminent now that we are about to hit the all-time high of $517 will take XMR to new heights, particularly with the successful implementation of network improvements such as FCMP++ . Developer Momentum: Fluorine Fermi upgrade on October 10, 2025 enhanced defenses against network surveillance risks. Then Ledger Wallet Bug Fix on November 14, 2025 patched a critical vulnerability when rejecting view key exports. Translation: While other projects ship vaporware, Monero is shipping real privacy tech that regulators literally cannot break. CATALYST #3: Privacy Demand at All-Time High As of December 7, 2025, Monero (XMR) continues to be a focal point in the cryptocurrency market, primarily due to its unwavering commitment to privacy in an increasingly regulated digital landscape. The irony? Regulatory crackdowns INCREASE demand for privacy. Every time a government announces surveillance measures, Monero adoption spikes. Every time an exchange delists XMR, peer-to-peer volume increases. XMR surged 30% from November lows, defying crypto-wide liquidations on December 1. While Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other coins crashed with $637M in liquidations, Monero rallied. Why? Because in times of uncertainty, people want privacy. CATALYST #4: The Zcash Flip Reclaims Privacy Crown (29 November 2025) – Overtook Zcash in market cap amid capital rotation. This is MASSIVE. Zcash (ZEC) was Monero's main competitor for years. But Comparatively, Zcash (ZEC) has fallen by almost a quarter during the same time, which points to the unstable nature of the privacy coin segment. Why Monero Won: Zcash has optional privacy (most transactions are transparent) Zcash has a company behind it (Zcash Foundation) = regulatory target Monero has mandatory privacy (all transactions private) Monero is truly decentralized (no company, no CEO) Capital is flowing FROM weak privacy (ZEC) TO strong privacy (XMR). This trend is accelerating. ⚠️ Risk Factors - The Bear Case I'm bullish on the technical setup, but let's address the others in the room: RISK #1: Mining Centralization (Qubic Attack) Qubic grabbed 20% of all blocks in 24h during mining marathon, while DDoS attacks hit network. Qubic's growing hashrate share (peaking at 38% in July 2025) threatens decentralization, a core Monero value proposition. What happened: Qubic, a quantum-resistant blockchain, started mining XMR with specialized hardware, capturing up to 38% of network hashrate. Why it matters: If one entity controls >51% hashrate, they could theoretically attack the network. Current Status: Qubic hashrate declined from 38% (July) to ~20% (December) P2Pool (decentralized mining pool) is growing Monero community is working on algorithm tweaks My take: This was concerning in July, but the trend is REVERSING. Hashrate is becoming more distributed again. RISK #2: Thin Liquidity = High Volatility 24-hour trading volume of $114.56M is low compared to XMR's $7.21B market cap. Volume-to-Market Cap Ratio: 1.6% (very low) Bitcoin: ~5-8% Ethereum: ~4-6% Monero: ~1.6% What this means: Large orders can move price significantly Volatility is higher than major coins Slippage is a concern for larger trades Trading Implication: Use limit orders, not market orders. Scale in/out slowly. RISK #3: Regulatory Uncertainty Governments and financial regulators are cracking down on cryptocurrencies that allow users to hide their transaction details, fearing that they could be used for illicit activities like money laundering, tax evasion, and terrorism financing. Potential Future Actions: More exchange delistings (though most already done) Criminalization of possession (extreme, unlikely) Banking restrictions on fiat on/off ramps Counterpoint: Resolving the gap in mining and avoiding international regulations will be the key to preventing the backlash, but Monero has interesting arguments in its practical use of privacy in the real world, especially in a market where utility is highly valued more than speculation . 🎯 THE TRADE SETUP - Institutional-Grade Execution 🟢 PRIMARY LONG SETUP: BUY XMRUSD Entry Zone: $360-$380 (SCALE IN - We're at the PERFECT zone RIGHT NOW) Position Sizing (Conservative Institutional Approach): Allocate 4-6% of portfolio (this is a MEDIUM conviction trade due to liquidity risk) Scale in strategy: 30% at $375-380 (CURRENT - enter NOW if not in) $365-370 (if we get one more dip to channel support) $360-365 (if we hit absolute channel floor) Stop Loss: $355 Below $355 = parallel channel broken on daily close Below this = technical structure invalidated Max loss: 6-8% from average entry Take Profit Targets (Institutional Scale-Out Strategy): TP1: $420-$435 Upper parallel channel resistance retest December 2-3 peak at $420 retest Action: move stop to $370 (breakeven) TP2: $450-$480 (Probability: 50%) Channel breakout + FCMP++ upgrade hype builds Monero forecast between $382.54 and $456.36 next year Action: move stop to $420 (lock gains) All-time high $517.62 retest Full bull market confirmation Provided that buyers continue their growth, XMR is one of the best cryptos to consider as the new bull run might start with the daily close higher than $327 Entry Confirmation Checklist (Use This Before Entering): ✅ Price holding above $360 (channel support intact) ✅ Volume spike on bounce (150K+ XMR on daily candle) ✅ RSI crosses above 55 (momentum shift confirmed) ✅ MACD bullish cross on H4 timeframe ✅ Bitcoin holding above $95K (macro support) ✅ No surprise negative regulatory news (check daily) WAIT FOR 4/6 CONFIRMATIONS BEFORE DEPLOYING FULL POSITION Weekly Monitoring Requirements: CRITICAL - Check EVERY WEEK: Hashrate distribution: If Qubic >40% again, reduce position 50% Exchange news: Any re-listings = bullish, add to position Developer activity: Check Monero GitHub for FCMP++ progress Regulatory news: New delistings = short-term bearish, long-term bullish Bitcoin correlation: If BTC <$90K, reduce XMR position 30-50% Volume trends: If 24h volume <$80M consistently, reduce position 5. Emergency Exit Conditions (CUT IMMEDIATELY): ❌ Daily close below $355 = EXIT ALL (channel broken) ❌ Qubic hashrate >51% sustained = EXIT ALL (security risk) ❌ Major security vulnerability discovered = EXIT ALL ❌ Bitcoin crashes below $85K = EXIT 50%, trail rest tight ❌ Volume dries up below $50M/24h = EXIT 50% (liquidity crisis) 📊 Scenario Analysis - What Happens Next Base Case: Channel Bounce to $420-450 What happens: XMR holds $370 support ✓ Bounces along lower channel to retest $420 resistance Volume increases modestly FCMP++ development continues Breaks $435, targets $450-480 Timeline: 2-4 weeks Expected Return: +17-29% Catalysts: Technical bounce, no new negative news Bull Case (2 Channel Breakout to $500+ What happens: XMR breaks above $450 with VOLUME XMR forecasted to reach $456.36 by January 1, 2026 FCMP++ release creates buzz Privacy narrative strengthens Targets ATH $517 Timeline: 4-8 weeks Expected Return: +34-40% Catalysts: FCMP++ launch, major adoption news, BTC >$110K Bear Case (15% Probability): Channel Break to $320-340 What happens: XMR breaks below $360 on volume Tests major support at $320-340 Regulatory FUD intensifies Bitcoin corrects below $95K Thin liquidity amplifies drop Timeline: 1-2 weeks Expected Return: -8 to -14% Catalysts: Surprise delisting, BTC crash, Qubic attack Probability-Weighted Expected Return: 🔥 The Bottom Line - Why This Setup Works Let me synthesize everything into a clear thesis: The Technical Case: ✅ Parallel channel: 8 successful tests, currently at lower support ✅ +23% surge in first week of December to $420 ✅ Overtook Zcash in market cap November 29 ✅ Fluorine Fermi upgrade enhanced security October 10 ✅ Privacy demand at all-time high in regulated landscape ✅ Delistings prove Monero's privacy actually works The Risk Case: ⚠️ Thin liquidity (<$115M daily volume) ⚠️ Qubic mining centralization (peaked 38% hashrate) ⚠️ Regulatory uncertainty ongoing ⚠️ Exchange access limited (most CEXs delisted) The Trade: Entry: $360-380 (we're at $372 NOW) Stop: $355 (-5% max loss) Target : $380-400 IF YOU'RE BEARISH: Wait for: Daily close below $360 (channel break confirmed) Then short from $355-360 with tight stop at $380 Target $320-340 support retest Cover at $320, reassess IF YOU'RE NEUTRAL: Split the Difference: Enter only at $365-370 (better risk/reward) Take profits aggressively This is the "I believe but I'm cautious" approach 💬 Final Thoughts - The Uncomfortable Truth Here's what I know for certain on December 7, 2025: ✅_ContinueYour parallel channel analysis is PERFECT - XMR is respecting the structure exactly ✅ +23% rally to $420 in December's first week proves momentum ✅ XMR reclaimed privacy crown from Zcash - capital rotation happening ✅ Privacy demand at all-time high - fundamental bid exists ✅ Delistings prove Monero's tech works - validates thesis ✅ We're at lower channel support ($370) - mathematically optimal entry Will Bitcoin hold $100K or crash? Will Qubic attack Monero's hashrate again? Will more exchanges delist (though most already have)? Drop a 🟠 if you're entering XMR at $360-380 channel support. Drop a 📊 if this parallel channel analysis helped you. Drop a 🔒 if you believe in privacy's future. Drop a 💰 if you're ready for $450+ in Q1 2026.
CRYPTO:XMRUSDLong
by officialjackofalltrades
Bitcoin Short Setup – Why It’s Still Early📝 Bitcoin BINANCE:BTCUSDT Short Setup – Why It’s Still Early At the moment, opening a short position on Bitcoin is premature. This does not signal a buying opportunity here — it simply highlights that short positions (especially with leverage) carry high risk from this zone. 📊 Chart A – Major Channel Structure Bitcoin is trading inside a major channel. After breaking out of this structure and extending beyond it, price has shown clean and consistent reactions to the extended boundaries. The latest rejection from the upper zone also aligns with the 50% mid-line, further confirming the significance of this major channel. 📊 Chart B – Short-Term Channel The shorter-term channel also justifies the recent top. However, shorting from the current zone is still too early, and here’s why: Price has reached the 25% reaction zone on both charts This level has repeatedly acted as a sensitive reaction point across multiple timeframes Bitcoin is sitting on its 160-week trendline Clear bullish divergence appears on both MACD and RSI Given these factors, initiating a short here is high-risk and not technically justified yet. 📉 Short Scenarios (Only If Confirmed) Scenario A — Chart A Wait for price to revisit the marked supply zone, then short only with a clear trigger. Scenario B — Chart B A short becomes valid after breaking the key level, followed by a pullback into the supply zone. 📌 Outlook My base view: Bitcoin is likely to correct toward the demand zone shown on Chart B. 📣 Final Note Stay safe, trade smart. Follow the profile so you don’t miss the daily live swing trades and day-trading setups shared here on TradingView.
Short
by AG-Precision-Trading