On the risk outlook, US considering limiting investments in Chinese companies implies that protectionism is spreading beyond trade. The contractionary effect protectionism has on globalisation will continue to weigh heavy on cyclicals relative to defensively positioned portfolios. I am tracking for meaningful dollar devaluation starting in Q4, however Xi is...
Here we are coming to the end of the corrective wave within the underlying bull trend. The time has come to start getting to work on the top-side here again, this is a move we have been tracking for some months (see attached). We are going to be exploring the speed limit of the dollar over the next few months so buckle up and get ready for some very large moves...
Weekly T@M signals imply $USDCNH might be basing before rallying from this juncture. Will be interesting to monitor developments in this pair, as fundamentals present complex issues, related to trade talks with the US and the price of commodities as well. The largest distribution pattern led to a signal that exceeded the target, but ran out of time, followed by a...
This is how PBOC responds to tariffs. Let me remind you that China is the world's largest United States of America's Exporter, which means USA is the greatest Rep. of China's contractor/debtor.
Here we can see the tight range we have been trading since Feb. It is clear that volatility across the FX board has faded, notably in JPY and KRW. With that said, I believe the downside to owning CNH is becoming very limited and its highly likely authorities will step in to stabilise the CNH to keep a stronger currency. If we look ahead in the macro calendar...
For those who have a background in waves, you will know we are in the final stages of a 5 wave sequence since the advance from January. Only crumbs remain in the move and for my taste it is too late to buy into any weakness as bulls are eyeballing taking profits around current levels. We should not retrace any further than 2,900 ... however remember that after 5...
Here we can see the market completing a textbook example of a 5 wave declining sequence. As mentioned in the previous USDSGD idea (see attached: "Tracking a zigzag leg in USDSGD") a typical retrace will often retrace 38.2% of the previous leg. In our case here this is all the way up at 6.788. Anything up till here should be viewed as corrective inside an...
Head and shoulders for USDCNH forming (Head @ 6.9500 and Shoulders at 6.9000), with Take Profit @ 6.6000 and Stop Loss @ 6.8520. People's Bank of China has announced a change to Yuan policy to keep currency steady and restrain the depreciation to downplay speculation on a devaluation of the currency due to US-China trade war. In fact, China may be looking at...
News or Rumors, NEO will be in it's Matrix trend for long gain with correction. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- There's so much confusion and a neutral response over the news which is...
Sideways action here...I'm waiting for fundamentals to evolve, the chart shows mixed signals that could develop into both a downtrend or an uptrend with equal chance...a bit leaning towards uptrend due to the long term chart, and also the poor follow through to the downside recently. Other than that, I don't yet have a good enough low risk setup here, so, I chose...
I'm holding long positions in $ETH, and aiming to add once we get further confirmation of the weekly uptrend resumption. Recent events have led to a rollercoaster of emotional trading and a lot of people badly positioned. I was anticipating a sentiment reset before, as you can see in my related ideas, it was in fact needed to resume the long term uptrend in...
Dear traders, I believe we are at a critical juncture here. Quite possibly, China allowing shorting of their currency might have made the $USDCNH pair bottom last Friday. This is no minor news, and if we study the chart we might be able to understand the relationship between the chinese Yuan and cryptocurrencies. Since 2014, that $USDCNH bottomed, it spent a long...
This is an update of my $ETHUSD long term forecast. We're holding spot holdings in $ETH among other currencies in our crypto portfolio for a good while now. We aim for the targets on chart, it should base here for a bit, before launching higher, as the ICO 'ban' is potentially either reinterpreted by the market as actually bullish, since $ETH is a protocol to run...
The target hasn't been hit yet, but we might end up hitting it, and stalling there for some time, as I had explained in the monthly chart I posted. If you're long, look into closing margin longs on target, or if you own more than 50% account, go back to BTC to maintain equal weights in your cash account (spot, no leverage). The support here is strong, so you can...
If this signal works, we'll have a great rally into resistance, which could lead to a top, and a sideways consolidation for some time in the 6.75-7 range. I think this would align with other markets showing similar mixed signals regarding equities and the dollar, or with bonds and gold chopping around but finding buyers in the daily oversold lows. Bitcoin also...
EURUSD has an interesting signal in the short term. The chart points to more upside here, but the most interesting thing is that the stop loss for this long trade is very tight. Also, we have a record position in speculator shorts in treasuries plus a massive selloff courtesy of China, which would correlate with today's dip in the Euro (on the back of Yellen's...
Following the PBOC's manipulation and the massive drop for two days, price is starting to slow down. I think we will see a bottom here shortly. If we don't hit 6.7696 before Monday's close, we can anticipate a turn here. After the week closes, we'll get more confirmation of the risks in BTC and USDCNH. It could take as long as 3 weeks to confirm upside is viable...
This is what we're looking at here. We're already in a full position, so, we're limited to use leverage to add trades here. We took a long, currently in profit, and we're aiming to book profits and reduce our long term position against resistance higher. We'd like to see the following happen next: No new lows after today. Daily close above 5175. Price not...