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Market Maker Model on NQThe algorithm is currently engineering a Market Maker Buy Model to reprice towards the Buy Side Liquidity resting at 25900. The present action within the Sunday Open and Monday session is the final accumulation phase at the Weekly Bias Level before the primary expansion leg targets the premium Volume Imbalance. Entry: 25325.00 (68 points lower) Stop loss: 25125.00 (200 points from entry) Take profit: 25925.00 (600 points from entry) Risk to reward ratio: 3.00R The absolute truth at the center of this chart is that the algorithm has transitioned from a rebalancing phase into a high probability expansion state targeting the external range liquidity. You are witnessing a fractal expansion where the Monthly and Weekly order flow is unilaterally bullish and seeking new all time highs. The Draw on Liquidity for the Month is the parabolic projection target at 26750 which acts as the ultimate magnetic draw for the institutional order flow. The Draw on Liquidity for the Week is the distinct cluster of Buy Side Liquidity resting above the relative equal highs at 25900. The Draw on Liquidity for the Day is the internal Volume Imbalance and Void residing between 25600 and 25700 which must be filled before the higher timeframe expansion can complete. The market has spent the previous sessions consolidating around the 25300 level which is functioning as the dynamic fulcrum for this move. This consolidation is not indecision it is the engineering of liquidity to fuel the next leg higher. The entry logic is predicated on the mitigation of the Bullish Order Block and Breaker structure formed around the 25300 region. The algorithm has successfully displaced above this level and is now holding it as a floor. We are looking for a subtle retracement or a stop hunt into this 25300 to 25325 pocket during the London or New York Killzone. This price point represents the equilibrium of the local range and the launchpad for the attack on the highs. Buying here aligns with the institutional intent to defend the trend and forces you to act when the retail mind is fearful of a reversal. The temporal window for this entry is the opening range of the week where the initial balance is established before the true expansion begins. ​ The invalidation of this thesis occurs if the algorithm achieves a daily close below the 25125 swing low. Such a move would violate the immediate bullish market structure and suggest that the consolidation at 25300 was distribution rather than accumulation. It would indicate that the algorithm is seeking a deeper discount potentially targeting the 24200 level before any resumption of the uptrend. If price trades heavy through 25125 with displacement the probability of the bullish expansion collapses and we enter a defensive posture. Until that structural damage occurs every tick lower is an inducement to trap shorts. Target 1: 25600.00 | Type: Internal BSL / Void Fill | Probability: 90% | ETA: Monday Tuesday Target 2: 25925.00 | Type: External BSL / Swing Highs | Probability: 75% | ETA: Mid Week Expansion Target 3: 26750.00 | Type: Monthly Projection / Discovery | Probability: 60% | ETA: End of Month A 25% probability exists for the antithetical reality: a Complex Correction. In this scenario the rejection from the 26000 region was significant enough to warrant a return to the mean of the larger range. The current holding of 25300 is a trap to induce early longs before a violent flush to the 24500 Order Block. This reality is confirmed if price breaches the Omega Point at 25100.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Long
by TradeConfirmed
What's next for Legendary Silver?The algorithm is currently engineering a Macro Market Maker Sell Model to reprice towards the Discount Arrays and Sell Side Liquidity residing at 64.00. The present action within the 72.00 to 74.00 price level is a Distribution Phase into a Bearish Breaker designed to trap late longs before the primary liquidation leg begins. Entry: 73.50 (126 points higher) Stop loss: 77.20 (370 points from entry) Take profit: 64.00 (950 points from entry) Risk to reward ratio: 2.56R The absolute truth at the center of this chart is that the parabolic expansion on the Monthly timeframe has reached a Terminal Velocity and is now undergoing a violent mean reversion. You are witnessing the aftermath of a Blow Off Top where the algorithm delivered price into a deep Premium to induce maximum retail euphoria before slamming the door. The massive rejection wick on the Monthly candle is not just volatility it is the footprint of Institutional Distribution. The Smart Money has offloaded their long inventory into the buy stops of breakout traders above the 80.00 level. The subsequent displacement lower on the Daily and 8 Hour charts has created a definitive Market Structure Shift to the downside confirming that the Order Flow has inverted. The Draw on Liquidity is no longer the highs. It is the vast chasm of inefficient price action left behind during the ascent. The market is currently retracing into a Premium Array specifically the Bearish Breaker Block and Fair Value Gap region between 73.00 and 75.00. This is the "Right Shoulder" of the reversal pattern or in ICT terms the Smart Money Reversal entry. The entry logic is predicated on the algorithm's necessity to mitigate the inefficiency created by the rapid decline from the 84.00 highs. Price is being drawn back up into the 73.50 region not to resume the trend but to rebalance the Premium and trap bulls who view this dip as a buying opportunity. The "Weekly Bias Level" marked on your chart acts as the fulcrum. The algorithm is holding price below this level to build a ceiling. We are looking to short the failure at this ceiling. The temporal window for this entry is the beginning of the new week or the New York session where the manipulation of the daily range typically occurs. You are selling to the "Buy the Dip" crowd who are oblivious to the fact that the trend has changed. The invalidation of this thesis is a decisive daily close above the 77.20 swing high. If the algorithm displaces above this level it indicates that the current decline was merely a complex correction in a still valid bull market and price will likely attack the 84.00 highs again. However the sheer magnitude of the monthly rejection makes this the low probability outcome. The Primary Antithetical Chain would require a fundamental shift in the macro landscape that forces a panic bid for hard assets. But technically the chart is screaming distribution. The 8 Hour chart shows a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows. Until that structure is broken to the upside the path of least resistance is gravity. Target 1: 68.00 | Type: Internal SSL / Daily Support | Probability: 85% | ETA: Short Term Target 2: 64.00 | Type: Equilibrium / Volume Imbalance | Probability: 70% | ETA: Medium Term Target 3: 58.00 | Type: Deep Discount / Order Block | Probability: 55% | ETA: Long Term A 30% probability exists for the antithetical reality: a Consolidation at Highs. In this scenario the market refuses to break down and instead chops between 70.00 and 80.00 for several months to digest the move. This reality is confirmed if price reclaims 75.00 and holds it as support. If this occurs the trade is scratched and we await a new expansion signal. But for now the knife is falling. Do not try to catch it. Wait for the bounce to resistance and then push it down. ​
COMEX_MINI:SIL1!
by TradeConfirmed
A Bitcoin Prediction (2025)In this chart, we continue the journey of testing whether Bitcoin can live up to the expectations as published in my previous Bitcoin prediction chart (2024). Since we had technically hit my ATH cycle top for 2024–25, we are now gambling with the possibility that we might not have hit the highest cycle top targets and may just extend that little bit more. I think 2025 has most people asking, "Are we done yet?" or are we on the verge of something else? We'll just have to wait and see.... Upside: As you can see in ATHs, there are several targets, and I've mentioned this in my previous chart. Ultimately, the high side of what this chart can expect from a cycle high is a 2-week close of $131k. Wicks can extend beyond this price, but I expect a close below (according to this chart). A close above will invalidate this chart. All prices within the lows and highs are acceptable. Downside: In my previous chart, I hadn't posted any projected targets during a bear market; I only highlighted the lows, as generally that is what most may consider important enough to know—when can we resume the bull market again? Well, in this chart, I have labeled two additional downside targets. Although these do not follow the same pattern as other targets, they do have a significant similarity to previous cycle lows. Expect bounces from these levels, but if the pattern holds true, they will fail and continue to lower prices. In the short term, resistance sits at $98,511, and again this is on a 2-week close. So this next week, we can wick above, which might be the path we are on. Summary: I'll be posting updates close to each 2 week close, if I see something I'll be sure to post and update. 2024 Chart linked below.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by LiquidMafia
A Bitcoin Prediction (2024)In this chart, I uncover price levels across an identified cyclical pattern hidden within Bitcoin. I was initially hesitant to publish this, as I had been pondering the theory for a few days. However, as the price approaches the Phase 2 level, I believe the timing cannot be ignored, and a reaction may be imminent as Bitcoin could be on the verge of breaking out into Phase 2... I've posted a screenshot prior to where BTC is now (below) My discovery in finding this was not intentional nor was it believable. However, after identifying some familiar projective price targets deriving from Bitcoin's first cycle the compelling results left me intrigued and were enough for me to continue. Whilst continuously applying my method more and more results seemed to match with key pivotable phases. Once I hit 2020, I was sure to expect some variances, but to my surprise, there was not, and price levels were again matched to pivotable levels. It is to that point I followed through into 2024 and beyond. As stated in the chart there is no trickery rather, there is logic and reason. It appears, these predictions beyond 2024 are realistic and do not point to crazy moon boy levels. So with that, I leave this here to revisit and pay my respects. Some Observational and Key Points: I base some findings on a 2 x 8-year cycle rather than the conventional 4-year cycle. However, it may appear shorter than expected. Just as there are diminishing returns, there too is an aspect of diminishing cycle timing. While cycles are often recognised by their low and high targets, not many observe the time it takes to surpass a previous all-time high (ATH) or low. This is interesting because Bitcoin does not exhibit this repetitive behaviour in its history. I observed the peaks and troughs while noting the counts and periods across cycle phases and took a visual snapshot towards 2022-24 playing into more likely that of 2013-16. I've projected 2 ATHs as a range due to the nature of placement. The first target is primary, and wicks above could stretch into the second. Projections are also based on a 2-week (close) timeframe. Final comments: This is not an indication to be mega bullish and is NFA. The chart merely highlights developments I've identified and is not certain to play out, although quite probable. It is more of a "let's look back and indulge" - at least for me. Thanks and Enjoy!
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by LiquidMafia
5
The Bitcoin Treasure MapThis is an updated idea from the one last night. This idea aims to smooth out some of the points in the phases with new labels minus my consumption induced ramblings. PHASE A - ACCUMULATION ---------------------------------- PSY - Preliminary Supply The first peak is the Preliminary Supply or PSY, which is where some retail traders start to sell BC - Buying Climax Around this time inexperienced investors start to come in and this causes the Buying Climax or BC shortly after the PSY AR - Automatic Reaction This is where institutions start to sell their assets to the newcomers, and this is the Automatic Reaction or AR price tip. ST - Secondary Retes After some time, the institutions will ease off some of the sell pressure and the market will spike back up to form the Secondary Retest or ST, which is usually just below the BC retail rally. PHASE B - MARKUP ---------------------------------- As with Phase A of the accumulation, pattern institutions will occasionally push up the price to keep retail interest and confidence high while they secretly sell. SOW - Sign of Weakness UT - Up Thrust PHASE C - DISTRIBUTION ---------------------------------- In Phase C of the distribution pattern, we see something called the Upthrust After Distribution or UTAD. UTAD - Upthrust After Distribution Whereas the spring is meant to shake out the retail investors, the UTAD is meant to get as many retail investors to buy in as possible through the fomo it causes. Institutions start to aggressively sell to these investors causing the price to fall. This price collapse continues in Phase D of the distribution pattern. PHASE D - MARKDOWN ---------------------------------- The brief pause in the drop is marked by the Last Point Pf Supply or LPSY and is followed by a Sign Of Weakness or SOW, which falls below the support line drawn by the automatic reaction. LPSY - Last Point of Supply SOW - Sign of Weakness PHASE E - END/START ----------- Phase E of the distribution pattern usually blends with phase a of the accumulation pattern, which readies the market for another run-up.
Short
by SPYvsGME
9
BTC market cycles...Anger or Depression Stage 4? Look up that infamous "Wall Street Cheat Sheet, psychology of a market cycle" diagram The 4th stage is the markdown and downtrend. In the very first cycle it looks pretty textbook where stage 1 is a consolidation box but crypto does crypto things...by the time COVID came the stage 4 into stage 1 is a WIDE and volatile type of consolidation which lead to the 2nd markup to ATHs. This year we have inflation, another macro event! Stage 4 into a theoretical stage 1 could end up doing the same, it's definitely not clear cut or this stage extends further down first before a basing type of consolidation. But...the clue is to watch the 40 ma cross/rejection and what happens on this broadening pattern. A clear cross on the ma and pattern break could signal a new stage 1 (can have intermediate steps) in which a new set of unpredictable and volatile patterns form! Btw this is speculative. I could redraw this as well and this could very well still be gigantic top on stage 3 (like cycle 1 pattern breakdown, this entire top here could also be a larger broadening pattern with a failed breakout) But I am looking at it in terms of smaller cycles and patterns but I will keep updating this analysis on it. *** currently *** 1. bear flag 2. 3rd touch on broadening support bounce 3. price moving towards the 40ma 4. will it swing up to test resistance? 5. what/when/if will the next stage 1 base look like? 6. the last cycle just take notice the wide and sideways 1a/1b I pointed out. 7. last cycle lasted 700d, I duplicated that period of time to current cycle. What if it repeats and it lines up right to where the bear flag could hit (channel upwards) the resistance? 8. the 40 ma cross/reject will be something interesting to watch. ...past performance is not indicative of future results...but sure lines up nice!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by kenloi
ETH 2 phases and why we need it?Hi friends today i want to explain ETH 2.0 phases in short. like you see in picture above it explain our need to ETH 2.0 so i will summarize phases below: Phase 0 : Beacon Chain Phase 0 is the name given to the launch of the Beacon Chain. The Beacon Chain will manage the Proof of Stake protocol for itself and all of the shard chains. Once Phase 0 is complete, there will be two active Ethereum chains. For the sake of clarity let’s call them the Eth1 chain (current, PoW main chain) and the Eth2 chain (new Beacon Chain) During this phase, users will be able to send their ETH from the Eth1 chain to the Eth2 chain and become validators. (They will NOT be able to migrate this ETH back to Eth1) Phase 1 : Shard Chains Shard chains are the key to future scalability as they allow parallel transaction throughput and there will be 64 of them deployed in Phase 1 (with the possibility of adding more over time as hardware scales). Shard validators, who are randomly selected by the Beacon Chain for each shard at each slot, merely come to agreement on each block’s content. Phase 2 : State Execution Phase 2 is where the functionality of the entire system will start to come together. Shard chains transition from simple data containers to a structured chain state and Smart Contracts will be reintroduced. Phase 2 also introduces the concept of 'Execution Environments (EEs). Every shard has access to all execution environments and has the ability to make transactions within them as well as run and interact with smart contracts hope this article is useful for you. thank you all for your supports.
CRYPTOCAP:ETHEducation
by TraderAmin-KZ
56
GBPJPY BREAKDOWNOn a monthly timeframe, we are in a good trending market (Bearish). Currently in a correction phase after the long impulse move which occurred or started around 2007 and ended around 2011. We are in a beautiful ABC correction. Patiently waiting for wave C completion before looking for impulse move to the down side though continuation of the whole bearish movement. we might encounter a flat correction or a running correction but to gain confidence, wait for trend line break. WAVE A = 3 WAVES WAVE B = 3 WAVES WAVE C = 5 WAVES To enter, as a patient trader, wait or look for trend line break, a retracement of about 50% or 61.8% fibs level before entering a position.
by Ifeanyichukwuxx
Candlesticks basically and Occurrence phase (P.1)Candlesticks basically and Occurrence phase (P.1) Each combination pattern of candlesticks basically occurs in the above-mentioned situations (1) to (5). List of each combination pattern ① Bottoming out .Hitting the three skies .Three-handed Yinxian .The last hugging line .Lucifer .Abandoned bottom .Large shadow line .Takuri line .Power line .Shade skirt steak .Unleashed five-handed black one bottom .Yagura bottom .A small black line .The changing bottom of the seven hands .Continuously lowered three stars .Counterattack line .Hugging sun line .Close-up positive line ② Early rise .Chi Sanping .Five lower positive lines .Press-in wire .Raised insertion line .Raise Sanho .Breakthrough of Kabuse .Continuous tasuki on the way up .Top-off tasuki .Cross on the way up .Raised three stars ③Maturity .Lined red .Two consecutive hidden lines .Higher continuous Taiyo line .Wave high line ④ Ceiling .Stepping up in the sky .New price eight-handed profit line .Three-handed throw-away line .Deadline .Three-winged glass .Hanging line .High-ranking hidden line .Evening Venus .Sun skirt steak .The last hugging sun line .Hugging shadow line .Strike back the tsutai line .One red five-handed .Unleashed seven hands Daikoku ⑤Early fall .Plug line .Three hands .Three methods of lowering .Three-handed .Continuous sash on the way down .Haunted line .Lower leg cross .Two blacks .Three stars down .Five high-ranking hidden lines .Close-up hidden line
Education
by WhaleTrade
3 Stages of Trading 🚨Every trader goes through these stages. I remember starting out on demo thinking this would be the easiest way to make money quickly. Oh, how I was wrong. It seems like sunshine and rainbows on a demo account but when you move onto a live account, the real problems begin. Your expectations of quick money quickly vanish due to the psychological aspects of trading. This usually results in big losses. Excitement is followed by pain, this is where most traders quit. If you make it past the pain and develop, you will reach your trading goals. Do these stages seem similar to your trading? 💬
Education
by UnknownUnicorn34088517
Buying vs Selling Pt1- COLOR, Most have it completely backwardsI'm making a little educational series of tutorials to put some of my trading philosophies into writing for myself but also to help teach anyone interested or provide a fresh perspective to others. Let's start with COLOR . From indicator lines, fill regions, background colors, arrows, to barcolors (be it from an indicator or just the basic candle), most traders are looking at a green candle and a red candle in reverse. Novice traders see a big fat candle and think, "Wow, lots of BUYING" then see a huge red candle and think, "Lots of SELLING". I think we inherently associate green with money and like to see lots of green when we have long positions. And then we associate red with emotions of fear and panic, bad things. Let's have a look at a chart of SPY using the "Ehlers Instantaneous Trend" with ribbon and barcolor to help identify trends and paint them the color we are accustomed to seeing- Very quickly I'm sure a lot of people think the coloring makes sense and might be looking up the Ehler indicator right now (it is a really cool one so go ahead). What we're seeing is this- Most of the time the green candles have been when SPY has been rising Most of the time the red candles have been when SPY has been falling Seems natural to buy when you see these green candles going up and sell/avoid buying when you see red candles going down. The problem is that that's what dumb money does! They buy when smart money is SELLING. Those green candles are actually the result of a smart buyer who timed things correctly and bought at the lows and is now 1) holding onto their shares, 2) waiting for sell signals. And when those red candles start showing up, dumb money gets all panicky and starts selling their shares. They might wait for closing cost to fall beneath a moving average or some other indicator, then they start selling and voila- capitulation. The price those sellers get is probably not great and when it's all said and done was not very much above what their entry price was. But as people are selling, smart money is BUYING. They are fishing for a bottom to start accumulating shares. They look for really 'red' days with lots of volume, a perfect cocktail of emotion that gets weak hands to tremble and chase the price down before capitulating and selling for whatever price they can get. And usually when this is occurring, the bottom forms. Let's reverse the colors of the bars and start seeing things through the lens of smart money- Now if you are still associating green with buying and red with selling, the world should make much more sense. When the candles turn green here you're a buyer and when they turn red you're a seller. That doesn't mean buy the first candle and every candle, all the time, every time. It means that is when you are waiting patiently for the most opportune moment to buy. And when these candles are red you aren't freaking out and selling, you tell yourself "I am looking for moments when I can take some profits off the board when we get really crazy moves up, and maybe replace some of those shares with a few new shares I purchase at lows or on some bad days". The point is that this is a selling phase. I will go into depth as to why selling phases go up*, because I know that's a concept that people struggle with psychologically. (* there's two kinds of selling, as well as buying, which we'll get into). Here are some close-ups on candles and their default colors- Same chart, colors flipped -
AMEX:SPYEducation
by chrism665
11