I am sure many have heard the saying “Sell in May and go away” in recent weeks. There is certainly a lot of evidence that May and the months that follow it do not have great track record of performance--
But does it mean BEAR MARKET? And are there any Seasonal Plays we could take advantage of? I think so. Some...
NOTE that the ticker here is $AAPL but we are actually discussing the $VIX. They are heavily related, as will be explained. I want to get this idea published quickly so I am likely going to cut some corners I would otherwise like to explain more of.
I see the chart here doesn't include my drawings, so here's an attachment of it--
For those that understand...
I trade almost entirely using options, shares are typically only there to hedge Greeks or if a stock has a terrific opportunity to sell covered calls. When you are trading in options you need to understand that while technical analysis and fundamental analysis are still important, what is usually most important is how the options chain looks-- what is the Implied...
(Note that I am writing this idea about an hour after market open when $NET is trading around $90)
Thought I would publish a quick idea on how I like to select and play earnings on stocks. $NET looks like a decent candidate as an example and actual trade.
Earnings reports represent an opportunity for a BIG move, but we just don't know WHICH direction. Many...
Hello and welcome to a dump of indicators, signals, cross-macro things. If you like to actually read then you might enjoy this. If you really truly just need the shortest TL:DR its-- February is good, March is bad, market continues trajectory until Fed gets real late in the year.
Let's start with Seasonality (on SPY per MarketChameleon.com)--
There's a pretty good Head & Shoulders on the Daily/Weekly for $DKNG. The right shoulder is surprisingly similar in structure to the left shoulder.. a peak, trough, then lower high. Neckline is a little bit dirty, but then again its COVID so not a lot of us are shaving regularly :)
Today saw a nice spike which MAY be the real move (news that they are launching...
If you are thinking of trading Amazon, the best move right now is to probably not trade Amazon :D
What I see-
BULLISH: a nice Head and Shoulders that appeared to FAIL last week, with enough support to stop it from even testing the neckline.
BULLISH: a Symmetrical Triangle with price coming from below, which means this is more or less...
I have a few trend lines that appear to be pretty reliable. They don't need to be perfect but a good guide. Price might break through them for a day or so but as long as these trends are alive, it seems to obey fitting back between them.
The bar patterns were taken from recent price action in relation to these trend lines and true ranges, so they should be...
I just stumbled upon this, Norway's stock exchange apparently has 3x leveraged bull and bear ETFs for trading $TSLA. Because you can never have too much leverage when trading Tesla.
With that said, the 3x Bear ETF is looking mighty good at only $0.01 a share--
First off, MOC and MOC Imbalances are two things I am still in the process of learning and understanding better, so I am not claiming to be an expert on the topic. Please chime in if I have wrote anything incorrect or if you have something valuable to contribute!
A Market-On-Close (or "MOC") order is an order sent to trigger near the market close. We see this...
The reaction this past earnings report confirmed a trend line from the ATH and subsequent second attempt, but the -10% move seemed to hammer in a short-term floor. So the past 4 weeks I have been selling calendar straddles and strangles all over the 770-815 range with tremendous success. I opted not to continue selling volatility because the premiums have just...
I read so many damn comments from people claiming "manipulation" and that the markets are rigged. The usual scapegoat is the Fed "buying stocks". There's a case for those claims, sure, but maybe there's also more rationale for buying and rallying, in spite of a bear market or market crash, than those small brains can handle.
First, remember that for every trade...
Part 2 here is all about CONTROL .
As I said in part 1, people tend to equate green candles with buying and red with selling but the default coloring is wrong and does not reflect the actual actions of smart money.
Like color, a common misconception is that if the day is red and way down, people are selling off. The reality is most of the time the market is...
I'm making a little educational series of tutorials to put some of my trading philosophies into writing for myself but also to help teach anyone interested or provide a fresh perspective to others.
Let's start with COLOR .
From indicator lines, fill regions, background colors, arrows, to barcolors (be it from an indicator or just the basic candle), most traders...
Seen this behavior before and seems very likely to me to be a Triple Bottom.
Look at October 2018 or August 2019 for recent examples. In Oct '18 we had a Triple Top which broke to the downside. Aug '19 was a Triple Bot which broke to upside.
I think it's likely we run up to that red rectangle sell zone again, may not get quite as high as this is a predictable...
Shared this in the Stocks & Indexes chat earlier today, figured I'd make an idea of it.
Painting a bunch of curves, trend lines, etc. last night and I thought, "hmm, I could definitely see a H&S forming if tomorrow (Thursday) doesn't break to a new high".
Obviously there's a lot conjecture here.
A bottom punched in Dec 5th, 2019
A lower high Jan 31st, 2020, confirmed today
Established parallel channel running diagonally up
A trajectory that would put it near highs just before next Earnings, allowing it to cool off and let ER dictate which direction is next.
If you can manage to get it in the $143's area, looks like a buy to me. Or buy if it breaks up then re-tests from the top (2nd green rectangle).
I believe that $TLT, $VIX, and $GOLD counter equities ($SPY). Seeing the former 3 in the green and the latter in the red going into close.