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Pitchforks

Monthly TLT Historic Oversold Reading NASDAQ:TLT TLT, the long bond ETF is approaching a historic oversold monthly reading due to the coming rate hikes. The Fed would like us to believe that they will raise rates 6 more times this year, which would of course destroy bond prices. It's not going to happen.... The Fed has raised rates once thus far, by just 25 bps and the market is already down 15-20% from the highs. The US National Debt has ballooned above $30 Trillion, and every 100 bps adds 300 Billion in ANNUAL debt service expense. Those who time the interest rate peak, will be handsomely rewarded by going long bonds as the Fed is forced to stick their foot in their mouth and admit that the US economy is hostage to it's debt and dependent on low rates to sustain growth and keep the markets afloat. The interest rate threshold that causes a major systemic event gets lower and lower as the US is more and more indebted. twitter.com I believe that a combination of an intense market sell off and/or peaking rates somewhere around 150 - 175 bps will mark the bottom in bonds. I own no TLT at the moment; however, I will start scaling into a position over the next few months depending on the market reaction as we progress through the coming gauntlet of FOMC meetings (May/June/July) A test of the lower bound of the Modified Schiff Pitchfork will be my signal to go long. I'll update this idea with any TLT moves I make.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by Cousin_Fat_Fat
4
BTC 4H Analysis (July - Early August)After expectations were confirmed from the FOMC meeting on July 27 and some positive words were heard from the Fed, the price of BTC reacted with considerable bullish volume. Price has reacted again and surpassed the diagonal resistance created from the June and July major highs. Will BTC reach new highs in early August? The current rising channel momentum has increased significantly from its confirmed reversal on July 26th. We are able to draw a new pitchfork to expect the next major reversal or a new high. Combining Andrew's pitchfork, channel momentum, and trend-based Fibonacci time, we might be able to see a reversal around 26100, on August 2, as BTC continues its slowly bullish uptrend. Keep in mind that there may also be some bullish news for the cryptocurrency market in August, prior to and after the anticipated Ethereum merge. "The Merge represents the joining of the existing execution layer of Ethereum (the Mainnet we use today) with its new proof-of-stake consensus layer, the Beacon Chain. It eliminates the need for energy-intensive mining and instead secures the network using staked ETH. A truly exciting step in realizing the Ethereum vision – more scalability, security, and sustainability." ( ethereum.org ) Below is an old private price prediction of mine for ETH for some reference on momentum. We can also consider the current state of the US economy and how that might be significant. Global commodities are declining, US interest rates are expected to continue rising for the rest of 2022 to hedge inflation, the tech sector has generally been reporting strong earnings, and unemployment remains low. Absolute confirmation regarding the US recession status still remains inconclusive in my opinion. Very slow growth into 2023 is what I expect. Feel free to share your thoughts and opinions so we can compare the bulls and bears for a more accurate short-term expectation!
Long
by MakkInvests
1
BTC/USDT 4H LongEntry: 20883.6 TP: 22989.2 SL: 20187.8 Long Trade Idea: BTC has reached a point reflecting a reaction from a minor support zone, upwards channel momentum, and major pitchfork momentum. These zones may suggest a bullish reversal to occur making a temporary new high towards 23400. The RSI indicator is not showing any divergence which may suggest that the major downwards trend will continue. That further increases my thoughts for 23400 providing major temporary resistance, a decent opportunity to take profits before. That 23400 zone is also in line with the middle upwards channel as well as the major pitchfork momentum resistance. Let's see how this plays out. Disclaimer: I have not put a large degree of thought into this trade idea. This is purely for general practice and seeing if anyone has any thoughts that they would like to voice.
Long
by MakkInvests
CL - Crude LowerNYMEX:CL1! It looks like Crude is heading to the $75-$80 area. There are plenty of Macro forces underway that should push the price lower. Macro - Strong Dollar - Rising Interest Rates - Slowing Economies - Government Intervention (Fist Bumps) On the Technical Side: - Price finally broke under the green major pitchfork's median line - Weekly 9/20 MAs crossing bearish or Weekly Ichimoku Cloud: Impending conversion line / base line bearish cross - Weekly MACD / RSI heading lower - Weekly DMI, Bearish -DI cross However, the daily chart/indicators do not look as bleak in the near term. For this reason, I'm thinking that Crude might see some short lived upside before continuing lower. Taking the Pitchfork set-up into consideration, I'm thinking there are two potential scenarios that will play out. Two Scenarios 1 - Price retests the green fork's median line, before dropping. (Sky Blue Path) OR 2 - Price heads higher to the U-MLH of the purple fork into Ichimoku resistance areas (base line or cloud) before continuing lower. (Yellow Path) I'll be watching this chart closely, looking for a short entry. I'll update this idea when I get short.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Cousin_Fat_Fat
3