Pmis

EURGBP short due to weak Euro area PMI and Strong UK PMI Data The most recent Euro Area Services PMI data available is for August 2025, showing a value of 50.7, down from 51.2 in July 2025, and slightly below the forecast of 50.8. This indicates a slight slowdown in the services sector's expansion, as a reading above 50 still denotes growth, but the drop suggests a loss of momentum. The most recent data for the UK Services PMI, specifically the S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI for August 2025, is 53.6, surpassing the forecast of 51.8 and improving from the pr

ECB holds rates as expected, Euro steady The euro is showing limited movement on Thursday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1763, down 0.03% on the day. Earlier, the euro climbed to a high of 1.1788, its highest level since July 7. The European Central Bank's decision to maintain the key deposit rate at 2.0% was significant but not a surprise. With the hold, the ECB ended a streak of lowering rates at seven consecutive meetings. The ECB has been aggressive, chopping 250 basis points in just over a year. The ECB s

British PMIs accelerate, retail sales next It has been a good week for the British pound, which has gained 1% against the dollar and climbed to levels not seen since Feb. 2022. The pound has rallied for three straight days but is almost unchanged on Thursday, trading at 1.3425 in the North American session. The UK economy has been struggling but don't blame consumers for not spending. Retail sales for April will be released on Friday and the markets are expecting a massive gain of 4.5% y/y. This follows a 2.6% gain in March which was a

British PMIs fall, Trump says won't fire Powell The British pound dropped as much as 0.7% earlier today and is under pressure. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3265, down 0.45% on the day. The pound has taken advantage of broad US dollar weakness recently, rising 3% in the month of April. On Tuesday, the pound climbed as high as 1.3423, its highest level since September 2024. UK PMIs reports softened in April, another reminder that that the UK economy is struggling. The Services PMI fell to 48.9 from 52.5 in March, bel

Australian GDP beats forecast, Aussie edges higher The Australian dollar has extended its gains on Wednesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6271 in the European session, up 0.20% on the day. The Australian dollar jumped 0.75% on Tuesday, driven by the hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia minutes and a solid retail sales report. Australia's economy expanded by 1.3% y/y in the fourth quarter of 2024, up from 0.8% in Q3 and above the market estimate of 1.2% and the RBA's forecast of 1.1%. This marked the fastest pace of growth since Q4 2023. Quarterly,

New Zealand dollar steady as retail sales sparkle The New Zealand dollar is showing little movement on Monday. NZD/USD is trading at 0.5745 in the European session, up 0.07% on the day. The week started on a high note in New Zealand, as retail sales jumped 0.9% q/q in the fourth quarter of 2024, after a revised flat reading in the third quarter and above the market estimate of 0.6%. This was the strongest gain in three years. Most sub-categories posted gains as the improvement was felt across the economy. Annually, retail sales posted a sm

UK retail sales jump, British pound steady The British pound has steadied on Friday against the US Dollar after climbing 0.6% a day earlier. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2655 in the European session, down 0.1% on the day. Retail sales in the UK sparkled in January, climbing 1.7% m/m. The reading crushed the market estimate of 0.3% and bounced back from an upwardly revised -0.6% in December. This was the fastest pace since May 2024 and was largely driven by a sharp increase in food store sales. Annually, retail sales climbed 1%, down from

AUD/USD slides on Trump tariff threats The Australian dollar is in negative territory on Tuesday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6252, down 0.62%. Investors are keeping a closer eye on the third-quarter inflation report, which will be released early on Wednesday. CPI is expected to ease to 2.5% from 2.8%. This is the final tier-1 event prior to the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate meeting on Feb. 18 and could be the determining factor as to whether the RBA finally lowers interest rates. The markets have pric

AUD/USD slides on soft Chinese data The Australian dollar is in negative territory on Monday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6276, down 0.59%. The Australian dollar is coming off its best weekly performance since Nov. 2023, gaining 2% against the US dollar. China's services and manufacturing sectors both decelerated in January and missed expectations. The non-manufacturing PMI fell to 50.2, down from 52.2 in December and shy of the forecast of 51.8. With the exception of November, service activity has bee

Euro surges close to 1%, German CPI looms The euro has started the week with sharp gains. In the European session, EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.0403, up 0.91% on the day. Germany's economy may not be in great shape. but inflation has been moving higher and the trend is expected to continue when December CPI is released later today. Inflation rose from 2% to 2.2% in November, its highest level in four months, and is expected to hit 2.4% in December. Service inflation is at 4% and core CPI at 3%, which indicates the battle to contai

Pound steady after hot UK wage growth, CPI next The Canadian dollar continues to lose ground. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.4315, up 0.48% at the time of writing. The Canadian dollar has declined 2.2% in December and is trading at its lowest level since mid-March. Canada's inflation eased to 1.9% in November, down from 2% in October and shy of the market expectations of 2%. However, the trimmed-mean core rate remained unchanged at 2.7%, higher than the market estimate of 2.5%. This is above the Bank of Canada's targ

Pound higher as Services PMI rises, job report next The British pound has moved higher on Monday, after declining 1% last week. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2747, up 0.30% on the day. The UK Services PMI rose to 51.4 in December, up from 50.8 in November, which was a 13-month low. This beat the market estimate of 51.0, but points to weak business activity as demand for UK exports has been weak and confidence among services providers remains subdued. UK manufacturing is mired in a depression, and the PMI fell to 47.3 in Dece

Euro rally ends, Eurozone GDP expected to accelerate The euro is steady on Friday after jumping 0.7% a day earlier. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0581, down 0.06% at the time of writing. The eurozone wraps up the week with the GDP and job growth reports and the market is expecting an improvement. Third-quarter GDP is expected to improve to 0.4% q/q from o.2% in the second quarter. Job growth if forecast to tick upwards to 0.2% q/q, up from 0.1% in Q2. In France, the political chaos continues. A no-confidence vote passed this

British retail sales decline, pound extends losses The British pound is lower for a straight third trading day on Friday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2543, down 0.36% on the day. UK retail sales disappointed in October, with a sharp decline of 0.7% m/m. This follows a downwardly revised 0.1% gain in September and missed than the market estimate of 0.3%. Annually, retail sales rose 2.4%, well below the market estimate of 3.2%. The September reading was revised downwards from 3.9% to 3.2%. The sharp drop in retail sale

British pound falls to 6-month low, retail sales next The British pound has lost ground on Thursday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2506, down 0.44% on the day. Earlier, the pound dropped as low as 1.2593, its lowest level since mid-May. It’s a busy Friday in the UK, highlighted by the retail sales report. We’ll also get a look at consumer confidence and the services and manufacturing PMIs. The UK releases October retail sales on Friday and the markets are bracing for a downswing. The market estimate stands at 3.4% y/y, co

Euro jumps to 10-day high The euro has posted strong gains on Monday. EUR/USD is trading at 1.1126 in the North American session at the time of writing, up 0.49% today. The euro is at its highest level since Sept. 6. It’s a quiet day on the data calendar, with no tier-1 events. In the US, the Empire State Manufacturing index rebounded to 11.5 in September, much higher than the August reading of -4.7 and the market estimate of -3.9. This was a shocker as the manufacturer index had contracted nine straight times before to

ISM Manufacturing & ISM Services PMI Combined show trigger level ISM Manufacturing and ISM Services PMI Combined 🪢 This week the ISM PMI's were released as follows: 🚨ISM Manufacturing PMI = 47.2 (contractionary) ✅ISM Services PMI = 51.5 (expansionary) With both metrics offering mixed signals, I decided to make a chart that combines the ISM Manufacturing and ISM Services PMI into one dataset on the chart. Interestingly it provided a clean chart with many patterns to observe, and useful forward looking trigger levels to keep an eye on. Don't forget you c

GBP/USD hits 1-month high, UK PMIs next The British pound is showing limited movement on Wednesday, after a four-day rally in which it surged 1.7% against the retreating US dollar. GBP/USD is trading at 1.3047 in the North American session at the time of writing, up 0.1% on the day. The annual meeting at Jackson Hole has added significance this year as the Federal Reserve is expected to deliver a milestone rate cut in September. Fed Chair Powell will address the gathering on Friday and investors will be looking for clues about the an

USD/JPY dips after US services data stumbles The Japanese yen has rebounded on Thursday and is trading at 161.01, down 0.43% on the day. The yen has been on a slide over the past four weeks and has declined by 3.9% during that time. On Wednesday, the yen fell as low as 161.95, its lowest level since 1986. US markets are closed today for the Fourth of July holiday. The US ISM Services PMI disappointed on Wednesday, dropping to 48.8 in June. This was well below the May reading of 53.8 and the market estimate of 52.6 and marked the weakest r

GBP/USD steady despite plunge in retail sales The British pound continues to have a quiet week in which it has stayed close to the 1.27 line. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2715, up 0.13% at the time of writing in the European session. UK retail spending slumped in April with a 2.3% m/m decline. This followed a revised 0.2% decline in March and was much weaker than the market estimate of -0.4%. It was the largest decrease in four months, driven by a sharp fall gasoline and non-food items. Most sectors reported a drop in sales volume as unusually

USD/JPY steady as Japanese PMIs mixed The Japanese yen is slightly lower on Thursday. USD/JPY is trading at 156.70, down 0.08% on the day at the time of writing. Japan’s PMIs for April were a mixed bag and the yen didn’t show much reaction. Services PMI dipped to 53.6, down from 54.3 in March and just shy of the forecast of 53.8. This was the smallest growth in services since February. Manufacturing PMI showed improvement and rose to 50.5, up from 49.6 in March and above the market estimate of 49.7. This was the first growth since

China Caixin PMI Summary China Caixin PMI Summary Surveys completed by 650 SME's in China have indicated that China's smaller manufacturing and service providers remain in expansionary mode in April 2024 with all three data releases coming in as expected or higher than expected with readings >50 = Expansionary. Manufacturing - 51.4 Increased from 51.1 in Mar 2024 to 51.4 in Apr 2024 ✅Above expectations of 51 Services - 52.5 Decreased from 52.7 in Mar 2024 to 52.5 in Apr 2024 ✅In line with expectations of 52.5

Macro Monday 45~The China Caixin PMI (Manu, Serv & Composite)Macro Monday 45 The China Caixin PMI (Services and Composite released Today Monday) Last week week we looked at the China Caixin Manufacturing PMI which will revise today with its updated readings that were released last Tuesday. We will also look at the China Caixin Services PMI and the Caixin Composite PMI (a combination of the Services and Manufacturing PMI's) as these will both be released later today. 1.Manufacturing PMI – Already released 2. Services PMI – Released Today 6

Pound edges higher as UK Services PMI beats estimate The British is in positive territory on Friday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2555, up 0.16% at the time of writing. The service sector accelerated in April, as the Services PMI rose to 55.0, up from 53.1 in April. This was the strongest level since May 2023 and services has shown growth for six straight months, with readings above the 50 level. The PMI survey noted that business and consumer spending were higher in April and reflective of an improving UK economy. The positive report has given the Br