Commodity currencies reached the 🔑 value levels to load for this final leg down in risk. As mentioned here last week 0.62xx was the level to load in AUDUSD and NZDUSD. I also loaded an entire short CAD portfolio with USDCAD testing the 1.395x outguessing a negative outcome tomorrow. In best case scenario we will see a ‘handshake’ which wont be enough to offset...
The OPEC theatre was an event for the masses, attended by unimaginable liquidity. Packed into enormous press conferences and expensive photoshoots so that the masses would be amused by the raucous discourse or moved by the collaboration. The plot seemed to contain the essence of desperation from Trump, in its concentrated and dramatic form all in attempt of saving...
Here we are tracking a 5 wave sequence in the making for NZDCAD and AUDCAD. Commodity currencies are equally sensitive to global risk sentiment. NZD coughed and struggled to take back 0.63x however with RBNZ Nov cuts overpriced and extended meaning gyrations in NZD x's are a lot easier to trade than CAD. The same flows are in play for AUD; looking for the...
We are going to dig deeper into the fundamentals and technicals for CADJPY . For the Fundamental side we have the US sneezing and with investors quick to diagnose it means CAD will also suffer and begin to weigh heavy on the crosses as we enter into election mode. On the BoC side, they have been sat on the sidelines all year long with rates stuck at 1.75%....
Here we are tracking the base formation in AUDCAD, with RBA confirming a divergence between dovishness overcooked in market pricing and forward guidance we can comfortably lean on AUD over the coming weeks. Those following will know we were previously tracking these lows in AUDCAD and managed to clear our first targets...after a full retrace back to the entry...
Here we are tracking the bottom in AUDCAD ahead of important Labour data from AUD on Thursday. On the AUD side there is still a lot of market slack which is keeping wage growth tepid. The Australian economy has been squeezed via China-US trade tensions, which weighed heavy on the Australian housing market via extended balance sheets. The monetary side has...
Here we can see the market held the bottom in the range since last year. This is arguably already a double bottom, with bears starting to unwind it can be viewed as the start of another impulsive move very similar in nature to that of the 2018 rally. We came a few ticks away from clearing the lows, and now starting to see bulls come in again. Those following in...
Here tracking the flows ahead of BoC. Cad has been soft and drifted lower which has been enough for USDCAD to reach the highs in the recent range. The market sentiment which will dominate the flows today is for a supportive BoC and I remain a CAD bull for today's decision. On the trade side, Trudeau is taking the first steps for ratifying USDMCA. Cad...
Here we are tracking the final chapter in a fact leg for the RBA cutting rates in early June. A lower cash rate will only boost housing related flows by a small amount (2.8%) and this is not enough to change the AUD housing sector outlook. RBA cuts are unlikely to overshadow the soft housing sector decline and to support AUD.. the cross will continue to drag and...