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Dow at record highs, outperfoms peers! But are risks brewing?The Dow Jones DJIA surged to new record highs, driven by defensive sector strength and expectations of Fed rate cuts. Dow outperformed due to its heavier weighting in defensive sectors (industrials, financials, consumer staples), which are favoured during economic uncertainty and falling yields. Technical analysis suggests further upside potential, as investors seek stability and dividends in Dow components amid lingering recession risks. However, key support levels must hold to sustain the rally. The Dow has completed a V-shaped recovery, breaking above previous double-top highs from 2024/2025 (45,150), now acting as support. An open triangle pattern was identified, with the current move likely the fifth wave to the upside. The index trades above all major moving averages, confirming bullish momentum, but RSI shows hidden bullish divergence, supporting the case for continued upside only if support holds after a pullback. Dow has critical support at 45k, must hold to maintain bullish momentum. A drop below 45,581 could trigger a correction. Short-term upside shows 47k, with a major Fibonacci cluster and technical inflexion in focus. Intermediate levels sit at 46300/45900/45640, with important long-term Targets at 45k, 49500, 50k, 53k. Risks & Potential Scenarios Divergence: Despite strong momentum, technical divergence suggests a possible corrective move if the Dow falls below 45581. Bullish : Holding above 45581 and 45k supports further upside toward 47k and beyond. Bearish : A break below 45581 could trigger a deeper pullback before any renewed rally. Market Sentiment : The bond market’s caution contrasts with stock market optimism, so stay vigilant. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:US30Long
by ThinkMarkets
1
Two-phase FOMC reaction on EURUSD explained: Where next?EURUSD experienced a classic "dovish-then-hawkish" whipsaw following the Fed's 25bp cut. The Initial dovish reaction saw the fibre surge above 1.19 to multi-year highs as the dot plot showed 50bp additional cuts vs expected 25bp in 2025. However, Powell's hawkish presser reversed gains within the hour, describing the cut as "risk management" rather than an aggressive easing cycle start. EURSD is finding support at 1.1778 (previous high), with the price having taken out the 100% Fibonacci extension from August lows. Critical support sits at 1.1740, with a break below invalidating the bullish bias. Bullish Scenario Targets : 1.1830, 1.1866 (critical level), then 1.2000-1.2032 Triggers : Hold above 1.1778, break above 1.1866 Rationale : ECB-Fed divergence theme intact with ECB holding, while Fed cuts Bearish Scenario (Potential Dead Cat Bounce) Targets : 1.1750, 1.1730 Entry : Short at 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (~1.1832) Stop : Above 1.1878 R:R Ratio : 3.38 Where next? ECB pause vs Fed easing supports underlying bullish EUR/USD theme despite near-term volatility. But the next FOMC meetings are more critical as Powell emphasised a "meeting-by-meeting" approach. Current pullback is likely a retracement before a potential continuation higher, but watch for rejection at the weekly trendline resistance shy of 1.20. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Short
by ThinkMarkets
THE 4-YEAR CYCLE WILL NEVER ENDTHE 4-YEAR CYCLE WILL NEVER END. As I’ve said many times before, I now think this cycle will push into late January / February 2026, similar to 2017. As I’ve written extensively about, the macro setup is nearly identical to 2017. Read that here. The funny thing is, when we do push into early Q1 ‘26, all your favorite “influencers” will proclaim “this time is different”, because most weren’t here during the 2017 cycle or before. There is ZERO EVIDENCE that the 4-year cycle is dead. Since the GFC in 2008, the Fed was redesigned for these boom and bust cycles to counter inflation and unemployment. At this point, unless the US completely dismantles the Fed, the 4-year cycle will live on in perpetuity. We see the effect of this on TradFi as well. See the comparison here. The Fed is set to cut interest rates for the first time in a year at tomorrow’s FOMC. This is a liquidity positive catalyst for markets. The next ISM PMI print on October 1st should be ~50, which will be the start of the business cycle. That would give us ~5 months of a surging business cycle, which will pump risk assets to VALHALLA.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by jonnieking
1
Gold hits record highs ahead of FOMC! Tech SetupGold reached fresh all-time highs near $3690 ahead of Wednesday's FOMC meeting. Its rally reflects a perfect storm of Fed dovishness and geopolitical tensions, but technical divergences suggest positioning carefully ahead of Powell's decision. The 100% Fib extension and double divergence setup makes any hawkish surprise particularly dangerous for leveraged longs. CATALYSTS DRIVING THE RALLY: Fed rate cut fully priced in (25bps expected, some 50bps speculation) US-China tensions escalate (Nvidia antitrust accusations) Stephen Miron confirmed to Fed Board of Governors (dovish member) Dollar weakness supporting precious metals Surprising correlation: Nasdaq & S&P 500 also hit records alongside gold TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance : $3,700 - Key psychological level $3,750 - Next major target $3,800 - Extended upside if dovish Support : $3,660 - First support for entries $3,610 - Major support level Previous swing lows - Stop loss reference WARNINGS: Double divergence on 4H & 1H timeframes 100% Fibonacci extension reached RSI overbought conditions Momentum diverging from price action FOMC SCENARIOS: Bullish Case : Dovish 25bps + accommodative guidance → Target $3,750-$3,800 Risk Case : Hawkish surprise or even neutral tone → Profit-taking toward $3,600-$3,500 KEY RISKS: Powell emphasising inflation persistence Resistance to aggressive cutting cycle Hawkish dot plot projections Any break below $3,660 signals deeper correction potential This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:XAUUSDShort
by ThinkMarkets
Cut the Noise: The Fed Is on Track for a September Rate CutI’m seeing a lot of wild takes floating around right now, things like a surprise rate hike or claims that QE is driving us into a crash. That’s pure noise, and complete nonsense. The facts are straightforward: QT is still ongoing, the Fed’s balance sheet has been unwound (anyone can fact-check that), and a rate cut on 9/17 is almost certain, most likely 25 bps, which would mark the start of a new easing cycle. The dot plots already show the range, and if you look at the chart comparing fed funds to the 3-month yield, it’s clear the Fed is actually late to cutting. JP had also hinted that the easing would have already begun had the Tariffs (taxes) not kicked off. I will not torture you readers with more tariff information but let's also be clear, tariffs are simply a tax. They are transitory by nature, now uncertain , and already priced in. “Liberation day” is behind us, and those expecting some massive equity washout because of tariffs are months late. Even Powell himself hinted that easing would have begun earlier if not for the tariff overhang. I’ll spare you a deep dive into tariff mechanics, but the bottom line is they are temporary tax distortions, not permanent anchors on growth. Likewise they are not permanent catalysts of inflation. We likewise know tariffs were impacting select products like apparel, textiles, automobile parts and some technology significantly more than other sectors & products. On top of that, we’ve had bearish ISM manufacturing data , the transportation sector showing the weakest $/mile in memory (related to the cost variables), and consecutive soft jobs numbers. Those arguing that inflation is resurging are ignoring the Fed’s dual mandate: employment and inflation. Right now, employment stress is outweighing inflation risks, and Main Street is hurting. The market, being forward-looking , knows this. In a K-shaped recession, debt-dependent sectors are under real strain, while high-margin, scalable sectors like technology continue to grow and deliver true earnings. That’s why the bull market in equities, crypto, and gold is still intact and mainstreet remains suffering. We will get out of the recession and back into growth mode, and other sectors will see earnings improvement. All the while, crypto is an emerging market and will most likely rise a great deal, and Gold will still continue to pump. Briefly I will mention that I recently saw a bloomberg chart exhibiting central banks now holding more gold than US Treasuries - and we must realize this is yet another sign that most likely Treasury yield will be dropping. This is coupled with a weak dollar which was no surprise as the dollar was so weak in the initial trump administration as well. The logic someone could argue is that weaker dollars leads to more exports, less imports.
FRED:FEDFUNDSLong
by ZenMode
Gold Watching 3,360 Support as Powell Dovish Tone Weighs on USDHey Traders, in tomorrow's trading session we are monitoring Gold for a buying opportunity around 3,360 zone, Gold (XAUUSD) recently broke above the 3,360 resistance, turning it into an important support level to watch on any pullback. A retracement into this zone could help determine whether the breakout has strength to extend toward higher levels. On the fundamental side, Fed Chair Powell struck a dovish tone, signaling support for a potential September rate cut, citing lower inflation pressures and risks in the labor market. This backdrop keeps USD under pressure and maintains a bullish bias for Gold in the near term. Monitoring price action around 3,360 to assess whether buyers defend this level or if deeper consolidation unfolds. Trade safe, Joe.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by JoeChampion
27
Good setup to short USDJPYRecently the risk emotions caused by the White House and inflation worries it produced drives long term US Treasury yields rising, with 20-yr yield cross up to 5% once again. Yet, you can see that the yield difference are still at a dropping trend. Moreover, the Fed is expected to cut 125 bps in the next 15 months according to the swap market. Combined with the techincal levels, it's a good price to get into a short position of USDJPY. I don't know about you guys. I'm in
Short
by jtwongresearch
2
UCAD Bears Ready to Break 2 Month Long Falling Support??OANDA:USDCAD has been supported by a Falling Support Trend line since August 14th and here soon Price could potentially give us a Bearish Break to that Trend line! Once a Breakout is validated, we could look for a Retest Set-Up for some Short Opportunities to take Price down to the Support Zone created by the August and September 2024 Lows. An interesting fact to point out is if you observe the reaction of Price when it tests the Falling Support, we can see Price arc and the following reactions arc smaller, suggesting Bulls are losing strength on the push off of the Falling Support! Price Action is being heavily driven by Fundamentals in the markets this week: -USD- ADP Non-Farm Employment - Previous 60K / Forecast 111K / Actual 37K ISM Services PMI - Previous 51.6 / Forecast 52 / Actual 49.9 ISM Manufacturing PMI - Previous 48.7 / Forecast 49.3 / Actual 48.5 ISM Manufacturing Prices - Previous 69.8 / Forecast 70.2 / Actual 48.5 Unemployment Claims - Previous 239K / Forecast 236K / Actual 247K *Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment and Unemployment Rate are to be released tomorrow -CAD- BOC held Interest Rates @ 2.75% Ivey PMI - Previous 47.9 / Forecast 48.3 / Actual 48.9 *Employment Change and Unemployment are to be released tomorrow With BOC holding Interest Rates and the Federal Reserve possibly looking to cut rates because of a "softening labor market", this could fuel CAD to overcome the pair and put Bears in control to pull Prices lower! www.tradingview.com
Short
by Novi_Fibonacci
The Fed Cuts Balance Sheet Runoff by 80% - BULLISH!RISK-ON 🚨 I’m seeing so many people incorrectly analyzing the September 2019 emergency repo OMOs, which were short-term liquidity injections from the Fed, and then comparing it to the price of BTC going down, before QE officially started in March 2020 because of the pandemic. Here’s what really happened. September 15, 2019 was a tax deadline, pulling ~$100B out of markets as large corporations paid the IRS and funds flew into the TGA. Meanwhile, the Treasury issued new T-Bills to rebuild cash reserves following the post-debt ceiling resolution in August, draining another $50-100B as big banks and institutions absorbed the securities. During this time, the Fed continued reducing its balance sheet (QT) down to $3.76T, but the balance sheet did not leave enough slack for unexpected cash drains to the system, such as corporate taxes and Treasury issuance. Unfortunately, the Fed was flying blind and did not have a hard number estimate for “ample reserves” in the banking system. These reserves were largely hoarded by a few of the larger banking institutions due to Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) rules and a higher IOER at 2.1% vs the ON RRP rate of 1.7% - a 40 bp spread. This caused a liquidity crisis in the US repo market because bank reserves held at the Fed ($1.36T) were too low and repo lending dried up. Banks weren’t able to access each other’s reserves to fund daily operations. SOUND FAMILIAR !? The US just resolved its CR to avoid a government shutdown, and they will be refilling the TGA by issuing new T-Bills. The reverse repo facility is also nearly drained. Today, we heard the Fed will be reducing its securities runoff from $25B - SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:5B on April 1st, an 80% adjustment. One of the main drivers is they wanted to get ahead of another 2019-style repo crisis (although they won’t say this), rather than being reactive and having to perform emergency OMOs once again. Now to go back to my original point with people saying the Fed reducing its balance sheet runoff is a big nothingburger based on BTC price action in 2019. BTC dumped because of the repo crisis, NOT because markets needed QE. By early 2020, the liquidity crisis was resolved, and BTC pumped ~45% before the pandemic hit in March and nuked the chart. Proof is in the pudding - just look at the 2017 bull market. QT started in October 2017, and the market ripped until early 2018. The Fed reducing its balance sheet runoff by 80% is definitely a signal of risk-on for educated market participants, as it leaves more reserves in the financial system, which gives banks more liquidity to loan the market. i.e. M2 go up. But keep listening to your favorite large accounts who are all of a sudden macro gurus, what do I know 🤓
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by jonnieking
Rising from the Ashes: EURO's Path to RecoveryGood day traders, Trust we all profited from the FOMC report of yesterday. Please take a moment to go through my outlook and expectation on Euro in the coming weeks into the new year. Overview EUR/USD appears to be rebounding after a sharp decline triggered by yesterday's FOMC report, where the FED delivered a hawkish 25bps cut, which drove higher market-driven borrowing costs, a stronger dollar and a sharp drop in stocks. From the start of the week EURUSD had previously been consolidating, during which weak buyers (traders) were caught off guard by a false breakout to the upside, reaching a weekly high of 1.05342 on Tuesday. Idea The subsequent sell-off drove the pair to a four-week low of 1.03439, just above the November 22nd low of 1.03324. This drop aligns with a key Fibonacci reversal pattern under Elliott Wave theory, suggesting the potential for a significant rally. If this pattern holds, EUR/USD could gain approximately 400 pips (1.08150) in the coming weeks, with the recovery likely extending into the new year. Conclusion The recent low is expected to act as a firm support level, and a breach of the November low appears unlikely. This anticipated rally could mark the beginning of a period of recovery and optimism for the euro. Cheers! Merry Christmas and Happy New Year in advance.
Long
by Samuel124
USD/JPY price action: breakout rally after hawkish FedThe USD/JPY pair has surged over 2% to reach 157.51, marking the yen's weakest level in four months. This significant rally follows recent interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. Despite the Fed's 25bps rate cut, the US dollar has gained strength due to the market's anticipation of only two rate cuts in 2025, contrasting with earlier expectations of four. This decision maintains the interest rate differential between the US and Japan, benefiting carry trade strategies. Meanwhile, the BoJ has kept its short-term rate steady at 0.25%, its highest since 2008, with potential rate hikes forecasted if economic conditions align. The US's optimistic economic projections, with rising GDP, inflation, and job growth, further bolster the dollar's appeal. As global economic uncertainties and political changes unfold, traders should monitor central bank signals to navigate the USD/JPY's trajectory and carry trade opportunities.
by tastyfx
BTC breaks above 65,000On the back of a larger than expected FED rate cut of .50 risk assets breathe a sigh of relief long held in since the rate cut rumors of Q2 2024. The gains were cemented by a cooler than expected PCE of .1% as opposed to the expected .2% this is the FED’s preferred measure of inflation putting some level of ease to risk asset investor that the FED may turn face on the easing of monetary policies. If this continues a fear people have a of 70’s style inflation issue will be put to rest. China also joined the party will an AGGRESSIVE stimulus packages direct to the people and promises to do more if need be. They also encouraged stock buy backs, if you know anything about the investment market in China the options for quality investment are very limited as the Real Estate market was the main choice but since the Evergrande collapse Chinese investor have had little to no choice. This makes a scenario for crypto investment as an alternative to stocks but the CCP obviously like control so we will if that plays out. How this affect Crypto bros the short of it is when global liquidity goes up so do assets especially when people get cash in hand example 2020-2021 when everyone and their dog was investing. Now while stimulus direct to consumers is like throwing gas on the fire the FED rate cuts are like throwing a log on embers. The rate cuts take about a year to affect the general economy but the immediate effect is bank to bank loan rate i.e it’s cheaper to take on debt. Now with the rise of NASDAQ:MSTR strategy with other companies this will make it cheaper for companies to take on debt so companies like Metaplanet and other yet to disclose will find the “BTC Yield” more significant to offset loan cost. And lastly all risk assets benefit from low rate environments. In sum NFA but I would buy CRYPTOCAP:BTC as always and load up on alts while BTC out perform my mix ideally 75% BTC 15% alts and 10% cash for dippy dips
Long
by TradeBroInc
M2K: SmallCap May Get a Big Lift with Rate Cuts UnderwayCME: Micro E-Mini Russell 2000 Futures ( GETTEX:M2K ) Global financial market orbits around Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions. Hiking interest rates means monetary tightening while cutting them signals easing. In the past three years, we have witnessed a full cycle of Fed hikes and now its reversal. • In March 2022, as inflation rose rapidly, the Fed started a series of rate increases, pushing the Fed Funds rate up by 525 basis points from 0-0.25% to 5.25-5.50%. • In September 2023, after 11 consecutive rate hikes, the Fed put the brake on. It kept the Fed Funds unchanged for a full year in eight FOMC meetings. • Last Wednesday, the Fed finally entered the long-awaited rate cut cycle. It slashed interest rates by a supersized half point, or 50 basis points, in its first cut since 2020. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the latest reading of headline CPI is 2.5% in August, down 6.6% from its peak in July 2022. We may conclude that the Fed has largely completed its mission of combating inflation. The BLS data shows that the U.S. unemployment rate has risen to 4.2% in August 2024 from 3.6% two years ago in August 2022. Fed’s easing signals its pivot to the second mandate, to support full employment. Lowering interest rates could reduce borrowing costs, and in return help business expansion and employment. Russell 2000: SmallCap may get the biggest Boost The discounted cash flow (DCF) model estimates the present value of an investment based on its expected future cash flows. A lower cost of capital (CoC) shall cause the price of the investment to go up, other things equal. Small companies would gain the most compared to larger corporations. In the preceding rate hike cycle, they were hit hard as credit standards got tightened and credit spreads expanded. We will now see the reversal. Russell 2000 is the benchmark stock market index for US small companies. CME Micro E-mini Russell 2000 futures ( GETTEX:M2K ) were settled at 2,252.6 on Friday, up 10.05% year-to-date. For a comparison, the S&P 500 gained 19.50% YTD as of Friday, while the Nasdaq 100 was up 17.59%. In my opinion, the major stock indexes rose on the back of the AI-driven technological breakthroughs, where Big Tech dominated but few Small Cap companies could benefit. In this new cycle, lowered borrowing costs and the abundance of credit could help small businesses improve their balance sheets. The Fed is expected to continue cutting rates in the next two years. Corporate bond yields could likely return to the 2-3% range. The credit spreads, including Baa-Bbb, Baa-Bb, and Baa-Ccc, would likely get smaller. This could bring further boost to the Russell index. Could we quantify the impact of rate cuts? Let’s illustrate this with a $1 million payment, to be received in five years. • Applying the BBB corporate bond yield of 4.88% as the CoC, present value of $1 million will be $788,019. • If the CoC moves down by 250 bps to 2.38%, the PV will be increased to $889,046. • This shows that a 2.5% reduction in CoC could boost the PV by 12.8%. The same concept would work on the Russell index. CoC could drop either due to interest rate decrease or because of the narrowing of credit spread, which favors smaller companies. The result would be an increase in the market value of Russell component companies. For someone with a bullish view of the Russell 2000, he could establish a long position in CME Micro E-mini Russell 2000 futures. The contract has a notional value at $5 times the index. At Friday closing price of 2,252.6, each December contract (M2KZ4) is worth $11,263. CME Group requires an initial margin of $760 for each M2K contract, long or short. The Fed will next convene on November 5th-6th and meet one last time in 2024 on December 17th-18th. In my opinion, if the Fed continues lowering rates in these two meetings, Russell 2000 could likely move up further. Hypothetically, if the Russell is 5% higher by December, the 113-point increase would translate into $563 (=2252.6*0.05*$5) gain per contract for the long holder. The risk of long futures is the index going down. If inflation spikes unexpectedly, the Fed could possibly pause its rate cuts, casting doubt on the future rate trajectory. For more experienced traders, put options on the E-Mini Russell 2000 futures could be deployed to hedge the downside risk. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:M2K1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
Clean Break To The UpsideFalling Wedge Pattern Success rate : Falling wedge statistics - In 82% of cases, the exit is bullish. - In 55% of cases, a falling wedge is a reversal pattern. - In 63% of cases, the pattern's price objective is achieved when the resistance line is broken. Why should you buy into bonds after a rate cut? HERE ARE 5 REASONS... When a central bank cuts interest rates, bonds can become more attractive for several reasons: 1: Bond Prices Tend to Rise: When interest rates fall, the yield on new bonds is lower, making existing bonds with higher yields more attractive. As a result, the price of existing bonds rises, which benefits those who already own them or buy in anticipation of further price increases. 2: Fixed Returns Become More Attractive: After a rate cut, returns from savings accounts and other short-term investments decline. Bonds, offering a fixed rate of return, become more appealing, especially for income-focused investors looking for stability in a low-rate environment. 3: Lower Future Borrowing Costs: A rate cut often signals that borrowing costs will stay low, benefiting businesses and governments that issue bonds. This may lead to more bond issuances, and investors can capitalize on buying bonds before yields drop further. 4: Hedge Against Economic Uncertainty: Rate cuts often occur during economic slowdowns or periods of uncertainty. Bonds, particularly government or high-quality corporate bonds, are seen as safer investments compared to stocks, making them attractive for risk-averse investors. 5: Capital Gains Potential: As bond prices increase with falling rates, there is an opportunity for capital gains. Investors can potentially sell bonds at a higher price than they were purchased for, profiting from the price appreciation. In short, buying bonds after a rate cut can offer both income stability and the potential for price gains, especially in a low-interest-rate environment.
NASDAQ:TLT
by FlyingWiener69
Fed's Bold Rate Cut Raises Stakes for BoE and BoJ Both the Bank of England (BoE) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) are not expected to cut interest rates at their respective meetings today and tomorrow. The US Federal Reserve just chose to cut its own rate by 50 basis points. So, how might the BoE and BoJ decisions be affected? Bank of America projects the BoE will leave its Bank Rate at 5.0%, with the pound potentially gaining. However, gains could be capped if policymakers lean dovish. Additionally, a currency strategy note from HSBC says that the sharp appreciation of the British pound against the U.S. dollar may be nearing its limits. Masamichi Adachi, chief Japan economist at UBS Securities, cautioned that if the BoJ raises rates Friday, just days after the Fed's rate cut, “markets would likely face increased turbulence.”
by BlackBull_Markets
Crypto $TOTAL Market Cap Sell The News Event IncomingSOUR GRAPES Markets barely budge after the Fed cuts a massive 50 bps. This is due to uncertainty with participants feeling there is something “broken” in the system. However, long-term this is BULLISH. The Crypto CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL Market Cap could see another small pump leading into the weekend to test its downtrend line, but I expect next week for the markets to “sell the news” pretty hard. Should retest the lower order block ~$1.77T next.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALShort
by jonnieking
50-50 Odds for Big Rate Cut this Wednesday The Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate decision is teetering on a knife’s edge, with the odds of a significant cut climbing. According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, the chances of a 25 or 50-basis-point reduction are now evenly split at 50-50. The decision from the cental bank comes in on Wednesday. Former New York Fed President Bill Dudley, speaking last week, bolstered the case for a more aggressive move, stating the federal funds rate could be up to 200 basis points above neutral. Dudley argued there’s a “strong case” for the Fed to start big. However, major banks are possibly leaning toward the Fed starting small. In a note, Bank of America’s analysts suggested “a small chance” of a 50bps cut, while UBS’s Brian Rose also acknowledged the possibility, though was not factoring it into his baseline.
TVC:DXY
by BlackBull_Markets
AU Bears "Head" Down to Target .6570Here I have AUD/USD on the Daily Chart! From Friday's High @ .67672 to its Low @ .66597, we can see we get the Confirmation of a strong reversal pattern with the Break of the Neckline of the Head & Shoulders! Now what I'd like to see off the same High and Low of Friday is Price give us a 38.2% Retracement of the Low & Pullback to test the Neckline for potential Sell Entries. ( .67008 - .6697 ) Swing High of Head to Neckline = 126.9 Pips Neckline - 126.9 = .6570 (Target) Fundamentals: AUD's undoing comes from a mix of a rise in Unemployment to 4.2% and Retail Sales ending August coming in @ 0% With the horrible run of jobs reports for the USD to start September, it managed to recover to end the week and give the idea that a 50 bps Rate Cut is less likely sitting at a 30% change and a 25 bps Rate Cut more likely at a 70% chance at the Sept 18th meeting. -RBA Interest Rate sits @ 4.35% -Fed Interest Rate sits @ 5.5% This upcoming week will be VERY news heavy for USD seeing as there is: -Core CPI, CPI m & y on Wednesday, Sept. 11th -Core PPI/ PPI m/m & Unemployment Claims on Thursday, Sept 12th!
Short
by Novi_Fibonacci
Harmonic Crab Variation + Bullish RSI Divergence - GUHere I have GBP/USD on the 30 Min Chart! Price has found Support from the July Highs! Upon reaching the Low @ 1.30493 I notice a couple things: -Price is moving Lower, RSI is moving Higher = Bullish RSI Divergence -Price has created what looks to be a variation of the Harmonic Crab Pattern (not exact values) Harmonic Crab XACBD Values: X-B ( .382 - .618 ) A-C ( .382 - .886 ) B-D ( 2.618 - 3.618 ) X-D 1.618 We continue to see price move higher and I believe we will see Higher Highs up to the 1.3130 - 1.3140 Area! Fundamentals: GBP has been positive in the analyst eyes this week with the Claimont Count Change with impressive numbers and Unemployment down from 4.2% to 4.1%! -GBP will have GDP releasing Wednesday Sept. 11th with forecasts to be Positive! USD not only has Rate Cuts starting next week but this week is heavily loaded with CPI & Core CPI Wednesday along with PPI, Core PPI & Unemployement Claims Thursday Sept. 12th!
Long
by Novi_Fibonacci
2