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Gold to Silver Ratio FallingThis ratio shows the amount of silver it takes to equal one ounce of gold in price. When the ratio is rising it means that gold is outperforming silver; when the ratio is falling it means that silver is outperforming gold. The gold to silver ratio is currently at 106 and falling after hitting an all-time high of 126:1. The average ratio in modern times is about 50:1, with the long-term historical average dating back 5,000 years being closer to 15:1. In recent times, 80:1 was about the peak we would see in the ratio before it would fall again, so the recent jump to 126 was more than likely a once-in-a-lifetime event as silver became severely undervalued compared to gold. The chart currently shows three yellow price candles which indicates that extreme bullish volatility was experienced in the move up as gold outperformed silver. This was most likely due to investors fleeing to gold due to its main function being a store of value, while silver failed to see the same gains due to it mostly being an industrial metal, and since global production has dropped off during the virus outbreak silver was not in high demand. That trend appears to now be shifting in silver's favor due to the extreme disconnect in the ratio. The three yellow price candles show a strong move up on the first yellow candle, followed by a second yellow candle with a small body and long lower wick, and now the current price candle is retreating. This three-candle pattern resembles a hanging man reversal candle pattern with the second yellow candle being the hanging man candle. This occurs when the price of an asset sees high demand, and then a sudden pause as traders become indecisive, followed by a reversal. This pattern tends to mark the top of price advance, and since we are looking at the gold-to-silver ratio it likely means that we have seen the end of gold outperforming silver, at least in the short-term, and can expect silver to now begin to outperform gold. The expected move going forward is a decline in the ratio back to 80:1, and more than likely being followed by an undershoot back down to 50:1. If you're playing precious metals, now would be a good time to go heavier in silver trades and then convert back to gold when the ratio hits 50:1 or lower.
TVC:GOLDSILVER
by PrepForProfit
17
BEYOND THE GOLDEN RATIO & TIME AND PRICE AND ALL THINGS AHEAD THE WORLD IS NOW AT THE CROSSROAD IN MAN KIND . THE GIFT I BEEN SHOW IN LIFE IS THAT IT IS A MOVEMENT IN TIME AND THAT HAS BEEN VERY CLEAR BASED ON THE SPIRALS I POSTED FOR FEB 8 TO 10 AND THE EVENT 3/18/21 AND 4/2 . . MANKIND AND THE NEXT 18 MONTHS FIRST I ONLY BELIEVE IN ALL THING HAPPEN AS THEY SHOULD AND THAT TIME AND SPACE ARE A MOVEMENT IN THE WAVE OF ENERGY FROM THE BEGINNING . THAT WAVE IS A FRACTAL WITHIN ALL THE UNIVERSE FROM TIME AND SPACE AND THE VIRUS . THERE IS A 89 YEAR CYCLE MANY I SEE GOING BACK AND FORWARD IN TIME . I DO KNOW THAT THIS IS NOT THE END FOR US BUT NO MATTER WHAT YOU SEE OR THINK THE WORLD AS A WHOLE WILL MOVE TO A HIGHER LEVEL STARTING OCT 2021 . THIS IS ALL BASED ON A LIFETIME SEEING THAT EVERYTHING IS BASED ON AND FROM THE GOLDEN RATIO OF HARMONICS . AND THAT THE SPIRALS IN TIME ARE BASED ON THE LUNAR PHASES WITHIN THE GOLD RATIO THANK YOU CHRIS . BEST OF TRADES I AM LONG 100% IN MANKIND MOVING FORWARD
TVC:NYALong
by wavetimer
AD Ratio Suggests Birth of a New Bull Market!AD Ratio Suggests Birth of a New Bull Market! Or the madness of crowds. The Advance-Decline Ratio (ADR) is a simple measure of how many stocks increase versus how many decline. A ratio of 1 means 1 company’s stock increases to every 1 that declines. A ratio of 4 means 4 increase to every 1 that declines. It is a good measure of the bullishness of the market participants. The magic number I am using for this analysis is an ADR of 4, as anything above 4 increases to 1 typically indicates a turning point in the market. Chart Setup: Price – Log Weekly AD Ratio – 10 Bar Moving Average + 200 Bar Moving Average AD Ratio Red Line = 4 Indicating Extreme Bullishness There are two stories here. You need to decide which one you believe. Pre 2008 Crash – The Madness of Crowds. During the Financial Crisis crash from 2007 to 2009 the crowds were simply wrong. Extreme ADR indicated only temporary market bottoms, which were followed by brief rallies then market collapse. Post 2009 – The Birth of Bull Markets. Since 2009 the market participants signaled extreme positive sentiment with an AD ratio above 4 on 9 separate occasions which all indicated the end of the bear market and birth of a new bull market. This suggests one of two things: 1. During a major market crash the crowds are overly optimistic, underestimating the full impact of the economic devastation. 2. During a long-term bull market, the crowds are correct, in fact, it is the crowds of course, who power the bull market. The Key Point. The Corona Crash has shown us 2 extreme bursts of ADR buying above 7 for the week’s March 9 and April 6. This means either the birth of a new bull market or the radical underestimation of the impact of Corona on the economy. Final Summary. I am not convinced either way. Part of me thinks that this is the start of the new bull market, because in fact governments have done everything possible to stimulate the economy and save jobs and industry, there is no other choice apart from instant economic devastation. Interest rates will remain close to zero for the next 10 years and in governments stimulate inflation that the debt will eventually reduce by itself (according to the Economist April 24th Edition) The other part of me thinks that we simply cannot move to a new market high without further market correction to account for the large losses in future earnings. Do not forget. This market is driven now by central banks, Trump and Macro-economics. This market will turn on its head with a few massive headlines. Let’s have a discussion, let me know your thoughts below, I will try to reply to all. If you Like, then Like and Follow to get more updates. Stay healthy. Barry
SP:SPX
by liberatedstocktrader
11
BMY is worth buyingBristol-Myers Squibb says it has seen no major business disruptions and expects no decrease in global demand for its drugs this year. That means the 3.5% dividend yield should stay stable, and BMY is a great value at 1.3 PEG. BMY also just got FDA approval for a multiple sclerosis drug, which could turn out to be a pretty big deal. Most of the market has been trading based on macroeconomics, but as individual companies like BMY issue quantitative guidance, I think we're going to see more trading on company specifics. I bought a small position here and will add the dip if BMY heads south with the rest of the market next week.
NYSE:BMYLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
8
Bitcoin/Gold Ratio - Is BTC topped out in terms of Gold?Interestingly enough, the long term chart of Bitcoin/Gold - AKA how many gold oz 1 bitcoin buys you, seems to be following the issuance curve of bitcoin supply...which is going to have less and less deflation going forward, due to the principle of Bitcoin. Doesn't mean anything for the U.S dollar price of bitcoin really, just implies that gold will out perform Bitcoin in a hyper inflationary environment, contrary to what many BTC bulls believe. What do you guys think? I am open to all ideas. This could be wrong!
BNC:BLX
by diamond_in_the_rough
1
Nokia may be worth nibbling as it approaches supportFactset, an agency that polls analysts, released a newsletter today titled "S&P 500 NOW PROJECTED TO REPORT A YOY DECLINE IN EARNINGS IN Q1 2020." The newsletter shows that analyst estimates of S&P 500 earnings have fallen from an expected 7% growth rate in Q1 to an expected -0.1% growth rate, and they're still coming down. However, the newsletter also breaks things down by sector, and when you slice it that way, things look more complicated. The hardest hit sectors are materials, industrials, and consumer discretionary, all poised for double digit earnings decline. A few sectors are still poised for earnings growth in Q1, including communication services, with a 13+% growth rate. Information technology and utilities come in second and third place, with projected growth over 5%. Also set to grow are healthcare and real estate. Now, earnings expectations likely will continue to decline, and even the outperforming sectors will fall with the rest of the market. But the outperforming sectors will start to find support sooner, and they will get outsized bounces when the market rallies. I don't suggest putting a lot of money here just yet, but it's worth taking a few nibbles at attractively valued companies in these sectors. Nokia has support from about $3.30-3.50. The company has an attractive PEG of about 0.73, and it's been signing lots of deals lately in connection with the rollout of 5G. It plunged after suspending its dividend last year, but as the company recovers I think we could see the dividend return.
NYSE:NOKLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
7
Buying the dip on SGCSo TradingView is showing the wrong price on this; it's 10.90 right now, having dipped with the rest of the market mid-day after a strong open due to a large earnings and revenue beat. SGC's PEG is 0.8, according to Zacks, and its dividend yield is nearly 4%. That makes it a really good value. Unfortunately SGC offered no guidance, but the earnings and revenue beat today should bring some upward estimate revisions from analysts in the coming weeks. March 20 calls at the $10 or $12.50 strike wouldn't be a bad bet after today's report.
NASDAQ:SGCLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
First-ever dividend on CURO is bullish long-termI'm uncertain what CURO will do tomorrow after its mixed earnings report, lowish sales guidance, and announcement of a share buyback and first-ever dividend. What I do believe is that the initiation of a dividend will be quite bullish for the stock in the medium-to-long-term. Stocks that initiate a dividend for the first time tend, over the next 6-12 months, to move toward a higher multiple than they've traded at in the past. CURO currently trades at about 7.5 P/E and 3.5 forward P/E, according to data from Fidelity. Its PEG ratio is an extraordinarily low 0.3, making it one of the most undervalued stocks in the entire market. On CURO, I think it's reasonable to expect forward P/E to come up into the 10-15 range, at least, over the next year. That would require roughly tripling the share price from its current extremely undervalued level. The dividend yield, by the way, is a little over 2% at the current price, so you have that to look forward to as well. CURO's share buyback should also help boost the price, and then of course there's the expected 3.5%-10.5% growth of adjusted earnings next year. All in all, I think the signs point toward a strong future for CURO, and I likely will add some January 1 calls to the shares I already own.
CLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
Alaska Airlines looks ready to pop this weekAlaska is rated the second-best Airline, according to the Wall Street Journal. It is extremely undervalued, with a PEG ratio of about 0.5. News has been extremely positive for Alaska lately. In terms of technicals, Alaska looks to be right above a volume support and ready to bounce. Another way to play Alaska earnings is to diversify risk by buying the JETS ETF. Even if it misses its earnings target this week-- and it has a history of beating rather than missing estimates-- it might get a bump from raising its dividend. Alaska was one of five companies named in a Barrons article today titled "Comcast, Valero, and 3 Other Companies Expected to Increase Their Dividends Next Week." Options buyers have neglected Alaska, with most of the open options being puts, but that just means that the bullish fundamentals aren't priced in yet. I will go long on Alaska Monday morning.
NYSE:ALKLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
NMM has a great setup, but risk of an earnings missNavios Maritime is a container ship company that transports, among other things, iron ore and grain. It's been down this year due to the trade war, but recovery is long overdue. NMM has a forward P/E of 6.35, and an extraordinarily low P/B of about 0.25. It's dividend yield is over 7%. We did get some bearish shipping data the other day, but it seems to have been an anomaly due to shippers rescheduling some of their loads in order to cut costs. Today we got news that China's iron ore imports are close to a record high, and tomorrow we should get a Phase 1 trade deal that includes an agreement buy China to buy more soybeans. These should be good signs for NMM. However, NMM next reports earnings on 1/29 and has a negative ESP of -32.77% from Zacks, so beware the possibility of an upcoming earnings miss. This is also a fairly low-float stock, so expect volatility. For low-float stocks, relatively small changes in volume can lead to big moves in price.
NYSE:NMMLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
BTC Put Ratio SpreadBTC-28FEB20 Put Ratio Spread Sell 2x 2/28 6500P for 0.0430 ($315) Buy 1x 2/28 7000P for 0.0700 ($510) Net Credit: 0.0160 ($120) Max Profit (if pinned @ 6500): Approximately 0.0850 ($620) Margin Requirements: 0.2700 ($1975) due to Deribit not having complex orders Break Even: $5,880 This is a neutral to bullish trade. Anything above 7000 and profits are capped at the credit received. Max profit is actually achieved if I am wrong directionally and we dump to 6500. Adds some positive portfolio delta and brings in about $4.55 of positive daily theta. If we see a strong move to the upside, I will look to buy a 6000P for less than the credit I received for the trade which will cut into profit potential but also remove all risk from the trade turning it into a free butterfly spread. Any price action within the body (6000-7000) I will sit tight and let theta decay work in my favor. Would close out trade at 25% max profit (0.02125/$155). This is a fairly high probability trade but will likely take a bit of time before showing decent profit. Expected move for this cycle is about +/- $1,350 so this can stay profitable even if we see a full move to downside. Will likely close out though if we see 6k breached.
DERIBIT:BTCUSD.P
by DefineRisk
CPE an inexpensive bet to profit from Iran conflictWith energy prices rising and war with Iran looming, it's a good time to buy a company that exploits domestic oil resources in the United States. The problem with many such companies is that they either trade at a high multiple or their long-term prospects are very poor. Callon Petroleum, which drills oil and natural gas in West Texas, avoids those problems. With a P/E of 4.56, a P/B of 0.44, and forecasted earnings growth for the next couple years, CPE is a strong value for the long term and also should benefit from any escalation of Iran conflict in the short term. CPE has had a tremendous amount of trading volume in its current price range.
CLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
BTC to LTC ratio broke up from bull pennant, will LTC die?heading to 166 is equivalent to 6024 mBTC in terms of LTCBTC pair. This means there will be a big dump for LTCUSD, larger than that of BTC by more than 9%. This is because the volatility for LTC is higher than that of BTC. The good news is that after the ratio tests the midterm rising channel, it might go down again if it is rejected meaning ltcusd will go up. And if the ratio is not rejected and go back into the midterm rising, then it is doom for LTCUSD, seeing 22 and lower will be possible.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by nagihatoum