Hope but also fear & despairHOPE
I have to start with a little lesson or reminder:
- Parasites: Organisms that live temporarily or permanently in a host, feeding off its host rent free, in its best interest to keep the host healthy or at least alive.
- Bacteria: Entire domain (Bacteria, Archaea, Eukarya - Animals & Plants are Eukarya) that just doesn't care, some of them eat their "host" alive or dead.
- Virus: Undead creatures (technically...) that inject dna in their host to make more of them. They cannot spread on their own. Need living host.
- Prion: Misfolded protein which transmits its shape to other ones in a chain reaction and causes terrifying psychiatric symptoms, death. No diagnosis, no cure.
Let's focus on viruses. Their objective is to multiply. They're quite basic.
Take 2 viruses, which one do you think will spread the most?
A- Host instantly collapses to the ground, bleeds through his eyes, and dies in 3 days.
B- Host is full of energy, never gets any symptoms, speaks to people, laughs, goes into nightclubs weekly.
The second epidemic of SARS-cov-2 which was also called covid-19 had more cases but less deaths.
The UK has a third mutation (third is incorrect as there have been at least thousands of mutations) and this one is far more contagious than the last ones...
If it is more contagious it would not be crazy to expect it to be less severe... FFS it's a virus that's not even alive, not an alien invasion trying to wipe us out.
Most viruses have very low mortality rates. All the very lethal ones come from? From other species! In particular flying critters, and in more particular bats.
HIV is said to come from some monkey, could be flying primates who knows?
These viruses have adapted to their hosts, and when they transmit to humans they come in another form.
Common sense says "don't eat anything that looks like you". Eating humans enough times will result in a guaranteed light speed devastating exponential spread of 100% death rate prion disease. Eating monkeys often ends up badly. I would also avoid bats.
Why do bats develop so many "super viruses"?
This is the answer: Bats fly, and when they do their body heats up (I think it goes up to 40°C which is what a human gets when they have hardcore fever - fever is a body method to get rid of disease by killing it with heat). Since their body heats up it damages their dna so they have a super saiyan immune system.
A virus is fragile. Only the "strongest" ones, in this case severe, will survive, and they'll be just severe enough to live in bats without killing them.
The "weak ones" just go away.
So when this bat virus jumps to humans it's super deadly compared to where it should be at, because humans don't heat up all day long like bats and humans do not have a radioactive immune system. The virus is overtuned for humans.
Then what happens is now the "strong" virus individuals - the most severe ones - are now the "weak" ones, host dies, host does not spread, and the virus dies with it.
The "weak" ones are now the "strong" ones that will spread their genes. The virus evolves until it finds the perfect balance, which is never ending as the environment in general always changes but not as fast as changing species.
Oh by the way, this blows out the "survival of the fittest" theory. The organism that survives is the one most adapted to its environment, and the result can be as we see here a total 180°.
We can expect things to calm down, and no need to get all paranoid and have panic attacks. Anything can happen, but things settling down is very likely.
FEAR & DESPAIR
Haha just kidding we're all going to die. In the past years the world has become completely open. Globalism always existed but not as much as today.
SARS happened about 20 years ago, who knows how bad it would have been if there were no borders like today?
Look at Europe and the rest of the world, they blocked all travel from the UK.
Even Bill Gates was able to predict something like covid-19 (I think we got very lucky here, could have been really terrible), it was obvious it would happen, only a matter of time.
There are extreme diseases all the time, but most of the time they remain local and die off (not during the black death era).
If half the planet is constantly jumping around countries you can be certain some local deadly diseases will jump with them.
Having noble virtuous openness philosophical ideals is cute and all but keep in mind opening up comes with everything: ideas, people, problems, disease.
It's like always putting all your eggs in the same basket, you are very optimistic.
The science cult believes science will save us all. All I've seen until is mass panic and a rushed untested vaccine with coinflip long term effects against a virus that mutated dramatically, no idea if it will work against this new virus.
The vaccine also came long after the epidemic was over and it killed more than 1 million people.
Now imagine a kind hearted virtuous noble open world with a continent wide schengen area in every continent, and ease of movement, migrants can go anywhere they want, illegals are welcome with open arms and actually are not illegals because it's legal to do whatever you want.
Now. Tell me.
WHAT WILL HAPPEN DURING THE NEXT EBOLA/MARBURG VIRUS OUTBREAK?
It's only a matter of time. Maybe the next one won't spread. But EVENTUALLY I can guarantee with absolute certainty there is one that will spread.
And it will be lots of fun. Towns will fall first. Armed civilians and/or tanks will obliterate anyone trying to leave the cities. But this won't stop the spread.
Half the planet will die. Every one will become ultra-racist and murder anyone that looks different. Governments will collapse.
There will be no more order. People will isolate, kill each other for food. Wow such inclusiveness.
Or the next plague could be hantavirus (rats), or something else (with climate change there has been an explosion of wildlife - boars, foxes, deers, goats...)
Or maybe it will be much much worse than even Ebola. We'll all get our food from the same place, and our food will develop some prion disease.
People that eat this food will catch a disease we can not diagnose. The proteins will end up spreading exponentially to fields hence all types of food, they will end up in the water, they will end up everywhere with no sign of illness. And then people will start dying by the millions. Those alive will know deep down they have it. And remember prion causes horrifying psychiatric symptoms yay!
Governments will straight up nuke all large cities in a desperate attempt to save humankind. It sounds crazy but it's very real.
People will get paranoid and shoot anything that moves in a 25 meter circle around them.
But it will be too late anyway. No one will survive. Everyone will die a horrible slow excruciatingly painful death. The end.
If you risk 100% of your money on each trade, no matter how high your winrate YOU WILL BLOW UP this is a promise I make to you.
Same concept with getting all food from the same source, or 1 single worldwide globalist borderless nation.
Recovery
The Aussies: Mind the Wedges!I show what happened after two wedge formations. Note carefully wedges do not rule the market. The create probabilities not predictions. Wedges do fail.
There is hardly ever a perfect wedge pattern. The most recent one doesn't look too great. Price can fall out of a wedge and rock back in as you will see. Therefore trendlines drawn have to be estimates.
From experience only, recovery from the base of wedges - when the happen tend to get closer to the notional apex of the wedge or exceed them. As I said, there is no rule - because these formations do not rule the markets.
Wedges often don't work. These descending wedges shown are in a bull market, hence the expectation is for price to recover. This market could be collapsing when looked at from a higher time frame. Therefore, I do not expect a good retracement up on the most recent wedge. But I'm always happy to be surprised. My strategy here, is to follow a 5 to 10 min trend up as far as it will go. That means, no targets.
I am aware of much that has been written about wedges out there by many a guru. I do my own thing with these formations. I also know that wedges go by different names. Call it what you want - the important issue is the general shape. I am not a wedge expert.
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities on live accounts. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
USDJPY correlation with interest rates in backHistorically, USDJPY has had a positive correlation with interest rates. This implies that whenever rates go down, USDJPY follows lower. However, since September this year, rates as seen on the US 10 YEAR YIELD have been rising. USDJPY was falling on USD weakness.
Interest rates are rising as the US Federal Reserve has been providing massive QE and financial help to US businesses for recovery. They are trying to manage inflation with a target of 2%.
Correlation is back
The USDJPY has been moving higher in the past week despite USD weakness suggesting that it's correlation to rates could be back.
The Reflation trade
As soon as the COVID19 Vaccine starts to roll out around the world in 2021, economies are expected to fully recover by 2023. That's just 3 years away. The US 3 YEAR BOND also shows possible recovery with rates rising since July this year.
This is very supportive of my theory that 2021 could see the YEN become weak against the DXY . The 106.0xx is possible target as the level is in confluence with the 0.382 fibonacci level of the previous Bear 🐻 run.
Bitcoin's Massive Recovery - New All Time High Soon?In my last post I argued that Bitcoin should close over $17.500 in order to start a new run upwards. In the last few hours, volume has increased significantly, launching the price upwards. I think we will challenge the resistance of the last high soon.
If Bitcoin manages to break the resistance with significant volume and price action, we could easily see the price reach for 20k or even more, bringing us towards a new all-time-high.
Take a look at my last Bitcoin idea for reference.
Investors are bullish on US TreasuriesThe tide in the $20 trillion Treasury market appears to be turning in favor of the bulls for now, with expectations growing that the Fed will boost purchases of longer-maturity debt as soon as next month after Mnuchin requested the FED to return the money set aside for lending programs in the US.
This implies we could see a weak US Dollar moving forward. However the pandemic situation could keep investors uneasy for now.
A September 2020 pivot Low stands between the currency's next level of major support zone at 88.2xx.
I'll take this play from a Commodities and Emerging Markets currencies perspective.
Silver is an interesting precious metal that could see this year's pivot high breached to the upside with a $34.xx being a possible target 🎯 for 2021.
The USDSGD is in play to breach a storng level of support that held the price twice in both January 2019 and January 2020. If the monthly candle closes below this area, it's next support 🎯 will be around the 1.30xx - 1.31xx supply area.
STNG is looking to recoup some ground.Oil Tankers have experienced a lot of uncertainties due to the pandemic in 2020, however it is clear that the worse is behind us. Oil it will slowly drift higher and so tankers like Scorpio will benefit from that.
My primary target for STNG in the next 6 months, is on its immediate major FIB level, around $18.
Let's wait and see how it will go in the next couple months.
Two options for Crude OilFollowing positive Vaccine news on Monday, investors are already buying into reflation trade ideas. This implies that it won't be long till the global economy bounces back once vaccine distribution starts next year. However, we are still far from having an approved vaccine.
Therefore, US Oil has two narratives to go buy.
Vaccine approval happens sometime next month and distribution starts next year. This implies that economic activity will recover fully. This is bullish case for oil.
Global Oil supply is still high with OPEC members still trying to control oil supply as countries in the northern hemisphere head into winter with further pandemic-induced lockdowns reducing the demand. This is a bearish case for a minor correction.
In the long run, I'll be looking to buy oil for a recovery to the $51-$55 level.
Further weakness expected Markets are now taking on a reflation attitude. The EU is on track for further stimulus and this will further push the EURO lower. One of the best pairs to take advantage on is EURNZD as the New Zealand Dollar demand is high following a drop of Covid19 cases in New Zealand.
Trendline Rejection in PlayWhat's happening now:
EURJPY seems to be rejecting a trendline. However, the day is still young and aggressive bullish price action could still show up towards the end of the day.
My trade idea:
On the other hand, if today's candlestick closes below this trendline, I'll be looking for selling opportunities.
Fundamentals and in support of a lower target. Hopes for more stimulus in the EU are pressing the Euro downward. The Japanese Economy is still improving and demand for the YEN is expected to increase.
The CFTC COT Weekly report shows that more long positions on the EURO were closed. The net positions have over a few weeks, reduced from over 200k to below 150k.
FULL RECOVERY, TREND & RESISTANCE IDENTIFIED | S&P500 ES1! DAILY#s&p500 #tradingfuture #future #trend #election
The #S&P500 is evolving above the prices of January. The recovery done what is next.
We have identified all channels of potential moves.
The middle bleu line being the probable center of the movement initiated during this recovery.
The red line on the top is a #strongresistance difficult to break and we have seen the #ES1! market price evolving under the central blue line.
We have overall a big range horizontally and some paralleled up #trending channels.
The latest candle stick could probably be a #pullback on that blue line. Keep an eye on evolution.
Another possible pullback on the top red line could be possible as well. Then it would be a nice entry point for a short direction trade.
For the time being, medium probability of seeing the market testing the black horizontal line being a possible super #strongsupport. Pullback up front here could probably also to happen.
Thank you for your shares and support. Hope that my idea give you another vision of this market.
AAPL Buy Signal on 5 min chart Apple has a buy signal on the 5 min chart. Cannot be seen in the chart I posted because the 5 min tracker is too small to post. The significance of a buy signal on the 5 min chart supports AAPL nearing $115 a share before trading day is over. I drew the trend line for today. Back near $115 will put us in good shape for our run to $120. Do you think the iPhone 12 announcement will move the markets? Or Apple at least? Comment your thoughts below.
U-Shape? V-Shape? Recovery Shapes Explained And What They Mean ?🎈 Here are the most common economic recovery shapes and what they mean. While economic growth can be measured by any number of metrics—like the stock market or employment rates for example—we’ll focus on GDP.
📍 A V-shaped recovery means that the economy bounces back quickly to its baseline before the crisis, with no hiccups along the way. Growth continues at the same rate as before. This is one of the most optimistic recovery patterns because it implies that the downturn did not cause any lasting damage to the economy.
Under this scenario, the economic damage lasts for a longer period of time before eventually reaching the baseline level of growth again. The economy bounces back, but the damage at the bottom lingers for a while.
📍 In a W-shaped recession, also called a double dip, the economy moves beyond a recession into a period of recovery before falling back down again into another recession. The initial recovery is sometimes known as a bear market rally.
One example: After the oil and inflation crises in 1979, the U.S. fell into two back-to-back recessions in 1980 and 1981.
📍 An L-shaped recovery is the most pessimistic scenario. In this shape, the economy recovers to a certain degree from a steep drop, but growth never reaches pre-crisis levels for years, if at all. A period of economic stagnation follows.
📍 A recovery scenario resembling the Nike “swoosh” logo is characterized by a steep drop and a gradual recovery, meaning that it takes much longer to return to pre-crisis growth levels than it took to fall into recession.
A variant of this is a square root-shaped recession where growth recovers but then plateaus before reaching pre-crisis levels. Lowenstein says this is his base case scenario.
feel Free to comment below Your Ideas to make things more better.
Thank you 🙏
UK100!Got to be creative with it!
Price has respected 6300 $ times in the past so slowly 6300 is becoming weak as we visit.
Our next push higher is point D (possible 6400) and then an expected fall lower to find major support (6100-5600).
All of this before a push to break 6500 and beyond.
Just an idea, trade at your own risk!
Copper Futures - Breakout shaped recoveryThe economic recovery hasn't been confirmed yet by Dr Copper has it fails to break out of his decade long downtrend. It was challenged last month with no clear break (2 consecutives closes above)
August could be the month of the recovery from COVID or a pullback could signal a longer recovery ahead.
Hudbay Minerals: China's imports of metals are boomingHudbay Minerals (HBM) is an under-the-radar miner of a variety of metals - ranging from gold and silver to copper, zinc and molydenum. As metals prices continue to strengthen with the global economic recover, the company is ideally positioned to benefit.






















