RUSSELL 25-year Channel Up giving a Sell Signal soon.Russell 2000 (RUT) has been trading within a 25-year Channel Up since the March 2000 High, which was the Top of the A.I. Bubble. Since then it only broke once during the 2008 Housing Crisis. Once recovered, it has used all standard macro levels of Support as short, medium and long-term buy entries respectively, with those being the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line), the 1M MA100 (green trend-line) and the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line).
The April 2025 rebound, which is the market's most recent rally, took place right on the 1M MA100. The index is however approaching the 0.236 Fibonacci level of the Channel Up, which since the 2000 High, has provided almost all rejection points, being the strongest Sell Signal (exception 2021, which was the mega-pump recovery following the March 2020 COVID flash crash).
As you can see, the market has historically started a correction on the 2nd test/ rejection on the 0.236 Fib. Out of those 3 corrections, two of them took place after the index broke above the 0.236 Fib and one just below it. All however have pulled-back to at least the 0.382 (blue) Fib. The key here however is to determine the exact High so that you can draw the 0.382 Fib retracement.
The only condition that most likely won't be fulfilled (as it happened on all previous cases), is that the 1M RSI most likely won't break above the 70.00 overbought level before the correction happens. So there's question mark there.
As for our Target, we expect at least 2230 (Fib 0.382) to get hit around mid 2026.
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