GOLD New monthly candleHi, I'm Maicol, an Italian trader.
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🌞 GOOD MORNING EVERYONE 🌞
I’m back.
New monthly candle for Gold.
Warsh at Jackson Hole
Warsh delivered a hawkish message.
Gold was sold aggressively while the US 2-year yield jumped from around 4.239% to 4.38–4.40%, a move of roughly +16 basis points.
The estimated probability of a September rate hike increased to around 55–65% after the speech.
Escalation in the Middle East
On Sunday, August 30, the US struck IRGC rocket launchers on Larak Island that were reportedly being prepared to deploy sea mines into the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran responded with attacks toward Jordan, which were intercepted, and launched drones at Al Minhad Air Base in the UAE.
A supertanker also reportedly hit two sea mines near the Strait of Hormuz.
This marked the first direct exchange of attacks in more than a month.
After six months of conflict, the situation remains largely at a stalemate.
Talks appear to have collapsed, while the June Hormuz agreement has reportedly been violated by both sides.
Bessent is also reportedly expanding secondary sanctions, with possible focus on Chinese-linked banks.
Friday NFP
Forecast: +58K
Previous: -23K
August ADP: +47K
Government payrolls: -53K
Based on this setup, the +58K NFP forecast could be too optimistic.
Warsh delivered the hawkish shock the market was expecting.
However, the escalation between the US and Iran over the weekend increased safe-haven demand for Gold.
Still, the main event of the week may not be the geopolitical escalation.
The key catalyst will likely be Friday’s NFP on September 4.
The forecast stands at +58K after the previous -23K print, while ADP came in at only +47K.
The idea here is that a real recovery in the labour market toward +58K may be difficult.
If NFP disappoints, the probability of a September rate hike should decrease and Warsh’s hawkish narrative could lose strength.
That would be positive for Gold.
If NFP beats expectations, rate hike expectations could increase again and Gold may return to test the recent lows.
Let’sgosky 🚀
Peace ✌️
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HAPPY TRADING
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BE PATIENT 
Long
XAU: warsh dayHi, I'm Maicol, an Italian trader.
I've been studying Gold since 2019.
My trading approach focuses on swing trading and intraday setups.
I need your support.
Please leave a like and follow my profile.
It may seem like a small gesture, but it makes a big difference to my work.
Make sure to read the full description to understand today's trading plan.
Don't focus only on the chart. Thank you.
🌞 GOOD MORNING EVERYONE 🌞
Gold remains in an H4 bearish channel, while the 4577 area seems to be providing support.
Let’s see if today it can sweep the lows and reach an area around 4540–4520 before a possible reversal higher.
Also keep an eye on Warsh, who is speaking today. Certain words or comments could trigger either sharp corrections or strong upside moves.
Today is also Friday, the last trading day of the week, and on Monday we close the monthly candle. So stay cautious.
We can always start again calmly from the beginning of September.
As always, manage your risk properly and wait for confirmations before entering.
I won’t be around today, so I’ll see you directly next week.
Have a great weekend and good trading everyone.
Let’sgosky 🚀
Peace ✌️
🔔 Turn on notifications so you don't miss any updates!
📬 If you have any questions, feel free to message me. I'll be happy to help.
🔍 Reminder 🔍
I avoid trading during the Asian and London sessions.
My main focus is on the high-impact news releases at 8:30 AM ET and the New York session open at 9:30 AM ET.
In the meantime, I wish everyone a great day.
HAPPY TRADING
MANAGE YOUR RISK
BE PATIENT xauusd , FOMC Minutes.Hi, I'm Maicol, an Italian trader.
I've been studying Gold since 2019.
My trading approach focuses on swing trading and intraday setups.
I need your support.
Please leave a like and follow my profile.
It may seem like a small gesture, but it makes a big difference to my work.
Make sure to read the full description to understand today's trading plan.
Don't focus only on the chart. Thank you.
🌞 GOOD MORNING EVERYONE 🌞
Daily short.
H4 short.
H1 short.
All three timeframes are aligned.
For now, I’m waiting for price to move into premium before looking for shorts.
If price drops first, I’ll probably have to reassess my view.
For scalping, though, I’m watching this intermediate level within the London range. So I’ll wait and see how price reacts.
See you at 14:30.
Patience. Always!
Peace ✌️
🔔 Turn on notifications so you don't miss any updates!
📬 If you have any questions, feel free to message me. I'll be happy to help.
🔍 Reminder 🔍
I avoid trading during the Asian and London sessions.
My main focus is on the high-impact news releases at 8:30 AM ET and the New York session open at 9:30 AM ET.
In the meantime, I wish everyone a great day.
HAPPY TRADING
MANAGE YOUR RISK
BE PATIENT XAUUSD: NEW WEEKHi, I'm Maicol, an Italian trader.
I've been studying Gold since 2019.
My trading approach focuses on swing trading and intraday setups.
I need your support.
Please leave a like and follow my profile.
It may seem like a small gesture, but it makes a big difference to my work.
Make sure to read the full description to understand today's trading plan.
Don't focus only on the chart. Thank you.
🌞 GOOD MORNING EVERYONE 🌞
Gold closed the week strong, breaking above the spike from the previous week.
I’d expect a push toward last week’s highs around 4450.
The Daily closed back inside the first shift that showed signs of structural weakness.
Today is Monday, so let’s see what the market sets up for us, but for now I’d like to see the bullish push continue toward the levels marked above.
H4 is currently sitting in supply, around the 75% retracement of the impulse that started the move down.
We wait for either a break or a rejection from this area.
That should give us a clearer direction: either toward the Asian highs, or back toward the Asian lows to find a better H4 discount entry.
See you at 14:30.
Patience. Always!
Peace.
🔔 Turn on notifications so you don't miss any updates!
📬 If you have any questions, feel free to message me. I'll be happy to help.
🔍 Reminder 🔍
I avoid trading during the Asian and London sessions.
My main focus is on the high-impact news releases at 8:30 AM ET and the New York session open at 9:30 AM ET.
In the meantime, I wish everyone a great day.
HAPPY TRADING
MANAGE YOUR RISK
BE PATIENT XAUUSD,typical Friday?Hi, I'm Maicol, an Italian trader.
I've been studying Gold since 2019.
My trading approach focuses on swing trading and intraday setups.
I need your support.
Please leave a like and follow my profile.
It may seem like a small gesture, but it makes a big difference to my work.
Make sure to read the full description to understand today's trading plan.
Don't focus only on the chart. Thank you.
🌞 GOOD MORNING EVERYONE 🌞
🔍 Gold Price Action 🔍
Gold has been terrible lately. Hopefully it breaks out of this environment soon. Volatility is low, price action is full of fake moves, and there's very little direction. If you're a swing trader, it's been a tough market.
Today is Friday, which is typically a bullish day. We'll see if that plays out.
For now, I'm not considering any longs until we get a proper sweep of the deeper lows. Let's see what the market gives us.
Then comes the weekend... time for the usual surprises. Maybe we'll even get a nice gap on Monday. 😄
Have a great weekend, everyone!
🔔 Turn on notifications so you don't miss any updates!
📬 If you have any questions, feel free to message me. I'll be happy to help.
🔍 Reminder 🔍
I avoid trading during the Asian and London sessions.
My main focus is on the high-impact news releases at 8:30 AM ET and the New York session open at 9:30 AM ET.
In the meantime, I wish everyone a great day.
HAPPY TRADING
MANAGE YOUR RISK
BE PATIENT Resistance Rejection Before the Next HTF ExpansionXAUUSD | Resistance Rejection Before the Next HTF Expansion
Timeframe: 30 Minutes
Gold is approaching a well-defined resistance zone where I believe the market could offer a short-term selling opportunity. While the higher-timeframe structure remains constructive, I do not expect the next major bullish impulse on the higher timeframes to begin immediately.
In my view, the current advance is still part of a broader corrective phase rather than the start of a new higher-timeframe expansion. Before the market is ready for its next sustained bullish leg, it likely needs additional time-based correction and consolidation. For that reason, I am not interested in chasing the current rally into resistance.
Macro Context
Recent price action has been supported by periods of softer U.S. Dollar strength and shifting expectations around Federal Reserve policy. However, Treasury yields remain relatively elevated and macro conditions have not yet aligned with the type of broad institutional buying that typically fuels a sustained higher-timeframe rally in gold.
As long as the market continues repricing monetary policy expectations and the Dollar remains resilient, rallies into major resistance may continue to attract profit-taking and short-term sellers rather than fresh trend-following demand.
Technical Structure
Price is approaching a significant resistance zone highlighted on the chart.
The area aligns with local buy-side liquidity resting above recent swing highs.
The current rally has corrective characteristics rather than impulsive strength.
Momentum remains weaker than the previous expansion leg.
The higher-timeframe bullish structure remains intact, but the correction appears incomplete from a timing perspective.
This increases the probability of a rejection before the next higher-timeframe bullish impulse develops.
Primary Scenario — Confirmation-Based Sell Scalp
My primary focus is a short-term sell scalp from the highlighted resistance area.
This is not a blind limit order. I will only consider a short position if the market confirms that sellers are defending this level.
The confirmation I am looking for includes:
A liquidity sweep above the recent highs followed by immediate rejection.
A strong bearish rejection candle from resistance.
A bearish Market Structure Shift (MSS) on the lower timeframe.
Clear downside displacement after liquidity has been taken.
Failure to achieve acceptance above the resistance zone.
Without these confirmations, there is no trade.
Trade Management
If bearish confirmation develops, I will initially target the nearest demand zone shown on the chart. Should downside momentum strengthen, a deeper corrective move becomes increasingly likely before buyers attempt to rebuild the higher-timeframe trend.
This is strictly a short-term tactical trade and should not be interpreted as a change in the broader bullish market structure.
Alternative Bullish Scenario
If buyers produce a decisive breakout above resistance with strong displacement, sustained acceptance, and follow-through buying, the short-term bearish thesis becomes invalid.
Such price action would suggest that the higher-timeframe correction has completed sooner than expected and that the next impulsive bullish phase may already be underway.
Invalidation
Strong acceptance above the highlighted resistance zone.
No bearish reaction after liquidity is taken.
Bullish continuation supported by higher highs, higher lows, and expanding momentum.
Conclusion
My broader outlook remains constructive over the higher timeframes, but I believe the market still requires additional time to complete its corrective phase before the next major bullish impulse can begin.
Until the higher-timeframe correction has matured, I prefer waiting for a confirmation-based sell scalp from resistance instead of buying into the current recovery.
Patience remains essential. If the market provides no bearish confirmation, there is no trade.
Disclaimer: This analysis reflects my personal market view and is for educational purposes only. Always wait for confirmation and manage risk appropriately. Long 
XAUUSD; READY FOR ADP+NFPHi, I'm Maicol, an Italian trader.
I've been studying Gold since 2019.
My trading approach focuses on swing trading and intraday setups.
I need your support.
Please leave a like and follow my profile.
It may seem like a small gesture, but it makes a big difference to my work.
Make sure to read the full description to understand today's trading plan.
Don't focus only on the chart. Thank you.
🌞 GOOD MORNING EVERYONE 🌞
🔍 Gold Price Action 🔍
Hey guys, sorry for the late update and the timing. I was away all day. Since we're at month-end, I wanted to take it easy and be fully prepared for the start of the new month, with ADP and NFP coming up.
My bias remains bearish until the NFP release.
Is Gold getting ready for a new bullish move, or are we heading toward key support levels around 3,500?
MACRO NEWS UPDATE
Q2 2026 Gold Market Summary
Today marks the final trading session of the second quarter of 2026.
It's important to step back and look at the bigger picture.
Gold ends the quarter around $4,051, marking its fourth consecutive monthly decline and a loss of roughly 28% from its all-time high of $5,602 reached on January 29.
This correction has been driven by three main factors:
10-year inflation-adjusted Treasury yields (TIPS) have risen to around 2.2%, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.
The Federal Reserve, under its new Chair Kevin Warsh, has adopted a more hawkish stance, signaling that interest rates are likely to stay higher for longer.
A stronger U.S. dollar, with the DXY near its highest level in the last 14 months, continues to put pressure on gold.
Recent macroeconomic data also supports this view.
The latest FOMC projections point to higher interest rates in 2026, PCE inflation has started to accelerate again, and the market is currently pricing in roughly a 70% probability of a rate hike by September.
Despite this, two factors continue to provide support for gold:
Strong central bank buying, with 244 tonnes purchased during the first quarter of 2026, while the People's Bank of China has now recorded its 19th consecutive month of gold purchases.
The U.S. Supreme Court's decision to uphold the Federal Reserve's independence, reducing political uncertainty that had previously supported safe-haven demand.
Short-term outlook
Gold is likely to remain within a $3,900-$4,200 range, with $4,000 acting as a key equilibrium level.
The U.S. employment report (NFP) on July 2 will likely be the key catalyst:
Stronger-than-expected data could push gold back toward $3,900 or even lower.
Weaker-than-expected data could trigger a rebound toward $4,150-$4,200, although any upside is expected to be temporary.
central bank buying continues to support gold, but elevated real yields, a stronger U.S. dollar, and the Fed's hawkish stance still give the bears the upper hand in the short term.
See you later.
🔔 Turn on notifications so you don't miss any updates!
📬 If you have any questions, feel free to message me. I'll be happy to help.
🔍 Reminder 🔍
I avoid trading during the Asian and London sessions.
My main focus is on the high-impact news releases at 8:30 AM ET and the New York session open at 9:30 AM ET.
In the meantime, I wish everyone a great day.
HAPPY TRADING
MANAGE YOUR RISK
BE PATIENT
Short
