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XRP is a digital commodityI evaluate XRP as a digital commodity unlike most youtubers/influencers/etc. that evaluate it as a security by market cap with predictions of $ 4 - 10 (short wave five -> possible though). So $ 250 (candle shadow) is my best educated guess, just the time horizon is difficult/impossible to predict. But it will most likely not happen next year. Once the trading volume gets high, speculators could drive the price even higher -> the potential conclusion that XRP is not a security + fear of missing out could make the extented wave five happen which is so common in commodities as you can see in the three examples. The 1.618 extension gets exceeded, reached or almost reached very often. A two week close above $ 1.60 (key level) could start the real bull run for XRP. Also, I saw people talking about an ending diagonal for the wave five which is not possible because it has to be 3-3-3-3-3, unlike a leading diagonal which can be 5-3-5-3-5 or 3-3-3-3-3. And wave one of five already made five waves.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDLong
by mptrading74675
5
Palladium Back At $2,000!Following the peak of the Covid pandemic in March 2020 when price declined by 48%, price turned around and gradually moved back to the upside, eventually breaching the all-time high 11 months later. In May 2021, price created a new all-time high at $3,017 before heading back down towards the weekly 50 simple moving average. The 50 simple moving average was an important catalyst in the growth of price and appeared as though is was going to hold as support again in August 2021. Price breached this indicator and has since moved further down to the next obvious level of support: the psychological $2,000 round number. If this support zone holds strong, we should soon see a bounce back to the upside and a bull trend resumption. The bigger picture shows us that price is in a long-term period of consolidation, which began in February 2020. The all-time high in May 2021 was just a fake breakout. For now, this commodity will likely prove challenging to invest in, so the safest option is to wait for a break and close above the all-time high at $3,017 before considering any long opportunities. See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
TVC:PALLADIUM
by Sublime_Trading
The CPI Fantasy And Commodity PricesRodney Dangerfield was one of my all-time favorite comedians. He was a master at the one-liner, and while his catchphrase was “I don’t get no respect,” he got plenty. Rodney passed in 2004, but his legacy lives on in films. His role as Thornton Melon in the 1986 comedy classic Back to School continues to have a cult following. As he sat in an economics class, the professor created a theoretical company that sold widgets, the favorite product of academics. The lesson included funding the company and developing a marketing strategy for the widgets. Rodney’s character, already a wealthy businessman, attempted to point out the realities of starting a business, but the professor objected. Rodney then glibly asked the economist if his factory was in “fantasy land.” While the film was a fictional comedy, there is a fine line between fiction and nonfiction. The US Federal Reserve continues to call rising inflationary pressures “transitory.” Long ago, the economists massaged the consumer price data to extract a core that excludes food and energy prices called “core CPI.” Thornton Melon would call the core data “fantasy land” as food and energy are the critical factors that take a bite out of consumers’ budgets. Another significant increase in the inflation barometer Core CPI is fantasy land Look at the evidence- It costs more to power our lives and fuel our bodies Transitory in Fed Speak and the literal definition is not the same The trend is always your friend- Economists are behind the curve Another significant increase in the inflation barometer In June and July, the previous month’s consumer price index data was off the charts, indicating rising inflation. This month, the July CPI reading rose 5.4%, another sky-high level. While the number was in line with the market’s expectations, core CPI, excluding food and energy, was up 0.3% compared to the forecast level at 0.4%. The market interpreted the core number as less inflationary as it was below the expected reading. Core CPI is fantasy land Economists are social scientists, making their projections and interpretations highly subjective. They argue that core CPI better reflects inflationary pressures because food and energy prices can be highly volatile. Excluding them from the inflation barometer smooths the data. In statistics, the science of data, hedonic regression is the application of regression analysis to estimate the impact of various factors on the price of demand for a good. Hedonics is commonly used in real estate pricing as a quality adjustment for price indices. When it comes to inflation, excluding food and energy from the CPI is similar. The problem with core CPI is that food and energy make up a significant part of budgets. Rising prices for the products that fuel our lives and provide nutrition for our bodies is taking an ever-increasing bite out of paychecks is a reality, while eliminating them distorts the actual cost of living for the majority of people. Economists massage data. The US Federal Reserve relies on statistics in its monetary policy decision-making process. Thornton Melon would say that core CPI only exists in “fantasy land.” Look at the evidence- It costs more to power our lives and fuel our bodies Anyone that fills their car with gasoline, heats or cools their homes, or eats, will tell you that prices are a lot higher in August 2021 than they were in August 2020. Futures prices are real-time objective data as they reflect where buyers and sellers meet in a transparent environment. The evidence pointing to the reality of rising inflation from the August 2020 high to the August 13, 2021 closing level on the nearby futures contracts is clear: Nearby NYMEX crude oil prices increased from $43.78 to $68.44 per barrel, an increase of 56.3%. Gasoline moved from $1.4395 to $2.2626 per gallon or 57.2%. Heating oil and distillate prices rose from $1.3054 to $2.0779 per gallon, a 59.2% rise. Natural gas appreciated from $2.743 to $3.861 per MMBtu or 40.8%. Corn rose from $3.53 to $5.6825 per bushel or 61.0%. Soybeans rallied from $9.67 to $13.73 per bushel or 42.0%. CBOT wheat increased from $5.5175 to $7.6225 per bushel or 38.2%. Coffee rose from $1.3080 to $1.8275 per pound or 39.7%. Sugar moved from 13.28 cents to 19.95 cents per pound or 50.2%. Live cattle appreciated from $1.08225 to $1.28125 per pound or 18.4%. Lean hogs are up from 56.70 cents to 86.525 per pound or 52.6% over the period. The substantial increases in food and energy commodities paint a very inflationary picture. Moreover, the price rises reflect wholesale levels. Retail prices have risen far more over the past year. Yesterday, I paid over $4.20 per gallon for gasoline in Las Vegas, double the price last year. Food and energy prices are the tip of an inflationary iceberg. Education, health care, and housing costs are soaring. All raw material prices have moved appreciably higher. Transitory in Fed Speak and the literal definition is not the same In reality, prices are soaring in the Fed’s “fantasy land,” the core CPI data does not look all that bad as they only rose 0.3% in August. However, our food and energy bills went up a hell of a lot more last month. Over the past months, the Fed blamed rising inflationary pressures on lumber, new and used car prices, and other “transitory” factors created by bottlenecks in supply chains and other pandemic-related factors. The academic ivory tower where the economists sit is far above ground zero, where consumers shop each day. The definition of “transitory” is not permanent. Adjectives are temporary, transient, brief, short, short-lived, fleeting, and passing. “Transitory,” in a literal sense, requires an end date. So far, the Fed has not provided that data to the market. When asked about the period the central bank measures its 2% average inflation target, Chairman Powell replied it is “discretionary” or available for use at the user’s discretion. Transitory and discretionary is Fed-speak for leave it to us. They are non-answers to critical questions about the Fed’s interpretation and policy stance. Transitory reflects the central bank’s hopes and wishes, while discretionary tells us they will figure it all out someday. The trend is always your friend- Economists are behind the curve The bottom line is that the most objective measures of inflation are the wholesale futures prices and the retail costs of living. Food and energy prices are only a microcosm of rising prices across all asset classes. Money’s purchasing power is eroding because of the tidal wave of central bank liquidity and tsunami of government stimulus. Even if the Fed bites the bullet and addresses rising inflation, the government continues to spend without abandon. A $3.5 trillion budget initiative before the US Congress with an infrastructure rebuilding package only increases the debt level. The Fed is living in “fantasy land” as inflation continues to rise. In August 2020, gold made a new record high. In May 2021, lumber, copper, and palladium prices rose to all-time peaks. Grains and oilseeds rose to eight-year highs in 2021. In July, coffee futures rose to their highest price since 2014. Bull markets in the volatile commodities sector rarely move in a straight line. The ascent of prices has been nothing short of a bull market relay race, with one commodity handing the baton to the next. The most recent recipient was the sugar market, which rose to over 20 cents per pound last week, the highest price since 2017. Even if we use statistical methods to smooth the bullish price action, the underlying trends reveal that the Federal Reserve’s approach to monetary policy is far behind the inflationary curve. Inflation can be a challenging beast to tame. As it rises, the central bank’s refusal to acknowledge and address the economic condition will reward it with the lack of respect it deserves. We live in a stark reality created by policies that continue to erode money’s value. Rodney Dangerfield was a comedian. There is a fine line between comedy and tragedy. If the approach to monetary policy that hides behind massaged data were not so tragic, it would be funny. 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CBOT:ZC1!
by Andy_Hecht
RJA - a simple commodity solutionBuy the common sell the covered calls. Collect the small premium and place the premium collected in GGN with a 10% yield. Sell the longest dated calls against the common. Agricultural commodities have been rising in price. All of the usual narratives apply: global warming disruption. US midwest crop disruption based on rainfall and global warming - or not. Commodity super cycle starting as inflation heats up. Basic food price inflation. Pick a comfortable narrative. I own the common. I sell the covered calls. all the best
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by Spotshooter1983
ridethepig | Copper for the Yearly Close📌 Copper for the Yearly Close First with an immediate review of the flows. We were tracking for the capitulation low which was our moment to advance... It was a great choice of moment to load the longs. Extending the belief in commodity shortages which have been entering into play all year long. The highs are worth striving for, all factors remain the same with the macro picture still equal. The main cases where this will play an additional note too at China and Australia flows which is something to consider. After clearing our first targets it's time to aim for the 4.5 main impulsive zone. A flyaway break is in play with such a bullish close, which is generally not very common. Of course the last time this happened was in the early 2000's; and we exploded. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
COMEX:HG1!Long
by ridethepig
4
Palladium Ready For A Breakout?Palladium looks set to make another attempt at breaking out of the 16 month period of consolidation, which began in February 2020. A break above the consolidation high at $2875 was made in April this year, but that was short-lived as price returned back into the consolidation zone after being forced down by the $300 round number psychological resistance level. During the sideways market movement, price has still respected the 50 simple moving average, which has acted as support, helping price create higher lows. Last week we had a reversal just around the 50 simple moving average, which was shown in a recent post, and this week price is gaining momentum and heading towards resistance at $2875. If this level is broken then we still have the $3000 round number and the all-time high at $3017 in the way. The long-term movement has been bullish prior to the consolidation period, so the bias is for a break out to the upside. Should we finally have a breakout, then we should see a linear trend unfold as this commodity has trended really well in the past. See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
TVC:PALLADIUMLong
by Sublime_Trading
Gold, Bullish Reversal ImminentGood afternoon ladies and gents, What a week it has been. Lots of beautiful setups all week on many dollar based pairs. Whilst all of that has been going on, I've been sniping entries on Gold in preparation for the reversal that will take place soon. The Monthly & Weekly Orderflow on this pair is Bullish. Despite the sharp drop after FOMC last week, the bias remains intact and as a matter of fact, I have even more conviction in this trade. Technically speaking, Gold should rally as it's extremely undervalued and dropped directly into my Buy Zone where I'm looking for a solid reversal structure on the H4. Although it's not fully formed yet, I have a feeling that when Gold moves, it will be aggressive and it will not be moving in any other direction other than up and until those targets above are yet. Fundamentally speaking, Gold may rally as Inflation is as its all time highs (catalysed by the incredibly high QE rate that took place last year) and CoT reports do point towards this commodity being bullish. Here I give you a potential entry point and stop loss that provides an RR of 1:5/1:6; however, my entries on the lower timeframe provide a superior risk to reward. Let's see what happens. Trade at your own risk & manage your risk effectively should you trade this idea. Until later - AmplaFX
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Jiraiya_eth
Gold Likely to Retrace From 1850.00Gold is clearly starting to develop a new bullish trend; however, this does not preclude the possibility for the emergence of interim corrections along the way. The price action is currently drawing near to the descending trend line (in purple) and the 200-day MA (in orange). Given the significance of the two as major turning points, the price of gold seems very likely to rebound from 1850.00, thereby initiating a minor correction. This is further supported by the fact that gold managed to break out above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement only today, and the breakout is not yet certain. A potential dropdown could fall as low as the 23.6% Fibonacci (around 1770.00) before the commodity finds the necessary support. The long term target for the newly emerging uptrend remains the same - the 61.8% Fibonacci at 1917.50
TVC:GOLDShort
by Trendsharks
CRB Commodity Index on the verge of a 13 year Major BreakoutI have been harping on commodities for a long time now. Way before they even made their move. While I am still not in the inflation camp in terms of the way CPI . I am very much in the camp that commodities will continue to soar till the market cracks. Excessive deficits that lead to excessive savings will lead to money flows causing commodities to soar. Back on March 16th, I posted WHAT IS DRIVING INFLATION FEARS? As you can see commodities are leading the 10 years yield higher. As posted before on Feb 24th, commodities were at a key area and hitting resistance and possibly topping. Since then we have broken out and now in open waters, for commodities to run much further. I will keep saying it. No Govt can print value for a currency Govt can only create digits. It is up to the private sector's ability to keep up with digit growth in order for the digits to be valued. That is not possible when deficits are 30% ($6 trillion) to Real GDP. therefore asset price inflation is inevitable. We have seen it thus far in stocks, bonds, real estate, and now commodities that are on the verge of exploding. While the FED says we see no inflation, Fiscal policy, QE , ZIRP are not to blame. Many highly followed "financial, Macro, Economic experts" on social media have echoed that sentiment. I have adamantly disagreed with them publicly! I will let you be the judge as to who is right. More supporting charts Sugar is sweet DBA CORN FOOD INFLATION
TVC:TRJEFFCRBLong
by RealMacro
1
Slightly Bullish - Rising commodity prices may boost CME CME has been relatively Neutral throughout the recent run-up in asset prices. CME should be a proxy of rising commodity prices. The ADX/DMI indicator is showing mild strength. Look for the Choppiness indicator to confirm a new trend prior to entering a position. CME Price is above "The Cloud" indicating a slightly Bullish situation. Be prepared to Cover your Assets if price weakness persists. Trade cautiously as Bullish market trends are under pressure.
NASDAQ:CME
by GreenLightinvestor
1
Bloomberg Bloomberg Commodity Index AWH CONTRACT UNIT $100 times the Bloomberg Commodity Index PRICE QUOTATION Index points TRADING HOURS CME Globex: MON-FRI 8:15am-1:30pm CME ClearPort: Sunday - Friday 5:00 p.m. - 4:00 p.m. (6:00 p.m. - 5:00 p.m. ET) with a 60-minute break each day beginning at 4:00 p.m. (5:00 p.m. ET) MINIMUM PRICE FLUCTUATION .10 Index point ($10.00 per contract) BTIC: 0.01 index point ($1.00 per contract) PRODUCT CODE CME Globex: AW CME ClearPort: 70 Clearing: 70 BTIC: AWT LISTED CONTRACTS Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec SETTLEMENT METHOD Financially Settled TERMINATION OF TRADING 3rd Wednesday of contract month/ 1:30pm SETTLEMENT PROCEDURES Bloomberg CI Settlement Procedures POSITION LIMITS CBOT Position Limits EXCHANGE RULEBOOK CBOT 29 BLOCK MINIMUM Block Minimum Thresholds PRICE LIMIT OR CIRCUIT None VENDOR CODES Quote Vendor Symbols Listing
CBOT:AWH2021
by wallstreetstocks
1
BTC Now a Commodity, Mimics GoldI'm not sure how to explain exactly what I'm seeing in these charts. But when I place Gold, USD, and BTC on the same graph, it looks like BTC has a more intimate inverted relationship with the USD than the price of Gold. Even the puny spikes that BTC had before it took off have corresponding feedback from the USD at exactly the same time. Why? Are people co-opting BTC as a sort of quasi-commodity investment that substitutes market volitility for hyper-volitility in a single investment that promises massive long-term gains? I mean, if this is the case, and the USD is really going to burst as it should, BTC seems like THE choice of the last 2 decades.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Xenothales