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Weekly copper market review 11/23/2020.Support us by consulting our free daily magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF COPPER Last week, COMEX copper futures closed higher at $3.2910 per pound. Hope for a vaccine is fuelling the markets, and Pfizer and Moderna announced very encouraging results. Many countries, such as the United States, Germany, Spain and others, are already preparing vaccination campaigns. The pandemic continues unabated, with more than 58 million cases worldwide and more than 1.382 million deaths. The United States is the most affected country with more than 256,000 deaths and more than 12 million cases. The hope of a vaccine, as well as the prospects of a massive stimulus package, is driving the markets. The dollar is still low and in a downward trend, the DXY closes at 92.392. Copper stocks are historically low and declining. Copper stocks are down sharply to 328406 MT, a drop of 8.27%, or nearly 30000 MT . This confirms the good health of the Chinese manufacturing sector and China's willingness to accumulate strategic stocks of the red metal. Chinese industrial production was up 6.9% in October, for the 7th consecutive increase. Over the first 10 months of this year, Chinese imports were up 40% compared with 2019, with 5.6 million tonnes of refined copper compared with 4 million tonnes in 2019. China is the world's largest importer of copper, and data suggests an acceleration of the economic recovery in Q4. ECONOMIC RESULTS - Last week, China's industrial production was +6.9% in October. In the United States, retail sales were down to +0.2% in October from +1.2% in September, and US industrial production was down to +1.1% in October. - On Monday, manufacturing PMI in the Euro zone were at 53.6 in November compared with 54.8 in October, and composite Markit PMI at 45.1 in November compared with 50 in October, a sign of the slowdown in the recovery in the Euro zone. The US manufacturing PMI rose to 56.7 in November from 53.4 in October. - On Wednesday, orders for durable goods, inflation, unemployment registrations, and U.S. GDP. - Thursday, Thanksgiving in the US. ECB report. - Friday, Thanksgiving and close of trading at 13:00. CERTIFIED COPPER STOCKS - London Stock Exchange copper stocks are down to 157350 MT from 165200 MT last week. - Copper stocks on the Shanghai Stock Exchange were down to 96766 MT from 117949 MT the previous week. - Copper stocks on the New York Stock Exchange were down to 74290 MT from 74830 MT the previous week. - Total copper stocks were down to 328406 MT compared to 357979 MT the previous week. Total copper stocks are below the five-year average. THE DOLLAR The DXY index representing the Dollar against a range of foreign currencies closed last week down to 92.392, and the trend is still bearish. Joe Biden, who will be invested on January 20, spoke of a $3 trillion support plan. Forex traders are anticipating an increase in the money supply. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has called on the FED to return unused funds from emergency aid programs for the coronavirus crisis. The FED has decided to do so, although it considers this decision premature. Last week, this did not cause much movement in the currency market, which remained relatively calm. A low dollar is generally favorable to the dollar-denominated commodity markets. COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS The weekly COT (Commitments of Traders) report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows all the positions opened by all market participants. The COT report is published on Friday, and reflects the open positions on Tuesday of the same week. It shows the position of commercial traders (producers, commodity buyers, ...) but also non-commercial (speculators). The net positions of speculators on the futures markets are particularly interesting to observe. The net speculative position on the copper futures markets is up this week to 67.162 K instead of 65.069 K.
COMEX:HG1!
by Commodity-market-review
Weekly cocoa market review 11/23/2020.Support us by consulting our free daily magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF COCOA Last week, ICE U.S. cocoa futures closed sharply higher at $2,712 a ton. According to Bloomberg, Hershey is responsible for the sudden upward movement in cocoa prices by buying massively on the December futures contracts to avoid paying the LID and thus make big savings. More and more traders are using the cocoa market to avoid the LID, the $400 premium introduced by Ghana and Ivory Coast, which greatly annoys these two countries. Joseph Aidoo director of Cocobod accuses the industrialists of wanting to derail the LID. Under these conditions, the 2 countries threaten to suspend the sustainability programs, allowing companies to display ethical origins and sustainable cultivation of cocoa. The dry period in West Africa begins in mid-November, with some producers further north worried about an early arrival of the Harmattan, the dry and dusty wind coming from the northeast of the Sahara. Moisture in the soils should allow a bumper harvest until the end of January-February for producers further south. Hope for a vaccine is fuelling the markets, and Pfizer and Moderna have announced very encouraging results. Many countries, such as the United States, Germany, Spain, and others, are already preparing vaccination campaigns. The pandemic continues unabated, with more than 58 million cases worldwide and more than 1.382 million deaths. The United States is the most affected country with more than 256,000 deaths and more than 12 million cases. The hope of a vaccine, as well as the prospects of a massive stimulus package, is driving the markets. The dollar is still low and in a downward trend, the DXY closes at 92.392. WEATHER IN WEST AFRICA Ivory Coast and Ghana experienced above normal rainfall in October with an average of more than 150mm. The dry season usually starts in mid-November. Last week, about 25-50mm of rainfall fell mainly in the southern part of Ghana and Ivory Coast along the coastal areas. Producers hope that Harmattan will not come too early this year. It is a dusty wind from the northeastern Sahara that blows from December to March during the dry season. Harmattan can adversely affect crops. The wind would already be present in the northern part of the country, which explains why rainfall is increasingly concentrated in coastal areas. The rainfall forecast for next week is about the same as last week. ICE US CERTIFIED COCOA STOCKS Cocoa stocks are down to 3170 compared to 3254 thousand 60 kg bags the previous week. ICE US and EU cocoa stocks rose above last season's stocks at the same time. THE DOLLAR The DXY index representing the Dollar against a range of foreign currencies closed last week down to 92.392, and the trend is still bearish. Joe Biden, who will be invested on January 20, spoke of a $3 trillion support plan. Forex traders are anticipating an increase in the money supply. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has called on the FED to return unused funds from emergency aid programs for the coronavirus crisis. The FED has decided to do so, although it considers this decision premature. Last week, this did not cause much movement in the currency market, which remained relatively calm. A low dollar is generally favorable to the dollar-denominated commodity markets. COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS The weekly COT (Commitments of Traders) report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows all the positions opened by all market participants. The COT report is published on Friday, and reflects the open positions on Tuesday of the same week. It shows the position of commercial traders (producers, commodity buyers, ...) but also non-commercial (speculators). The net positions of speculators on the futures markets are particularly interesting to observe. The speculative net position on the cocoa futures markets is up this week to 16.362 K instead of 7.604 K.
ICEUS:CC1!
by Commodity-market-review
Weekly cocoa market review 11/09/2020.Support us by consulting our free daily magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website. ANALYSE TECHNIQUE DU CACAO Last week, ICE U.S. cocoa futures closed higher at $2,3333 per ton. The pandemic continues unabated, we've just surpassed 50 million cases worldwide, with more than 1.250 million deaths. Faced with the 2nd wave, Europe is confining itself or imposing curfews. The United States is the first country to exceed 100,000 new cases in one day. Joe Biden wants to set up a crisis unit. In Europe, many non-essential businesses are closed such as bars and restaurants. After a very good 2019/20 harvest, the 2020/21 season is off to a strong start with arrivals in Ivorian ports of 406K tons on November 1st, compared to 287K tons at the same period the previous season. Crushing reports for the third quarter were down 4.7% in Europe, down 4.02% in the USA, and down 10.1% in Asia. Reconfinement and the closure of bars and restaurants in Europe will undoubtedly weigh on the 4th quarter. Tensions in The Ivory Coast following the presidential election have resulted in about forty deaths since August. The opposition does not recognize this election and has announced the creation of a transitional government. In response, the government sent police units to surround the houses of opposition leaders, including that of Henri Konan Bédié, the former president. Guillaume Soro, in exile in France, called on the army to rise up. Opposition spokesman Affi N'Guessan was arrested and investigated for "conspiracy against the authority of the state" and "acts of terrorism". According to Reuters, bean arrivals at Ivorian ports fell last week due to the risk of violence. Producers are afraid to return to the farms, and prefer to stay at home. In the United States, Joe Biden will be sworn in on January 20, 2021, the Senate remains Republican for the moment, but there will be a second round in Georgia on January 5. If the Democrats win both seats, it would bring the distribution to 50-50 seats, and Vice President Kamala Harris could constitutionally break the tie. In the absence of a majority in the Senate, voting on a plan to support the U.S. economy would be made more difficult. Therefore, uncertainties remain as to the timing and amount of the plan. Last week the Fed reaffirmed its willingness to support the US economy and is ready to "increase its firepower" if necessary. The dollar fell sharply, with the DXY dropping from over 94 at the beginning of last week to close Friday at 92.236, a drop that benefited all dollar-denominated commodities. WEATHER IN WEST AFRICA Ivory Coast and Ghana experienced above normal rainfall in October with an average of more than 150mm. Last week's rains were also above the five-year average in most of Ivory Coast's cocoa-producing regions, with about 50 mm of rainfall. Forecasts in Ivory Coast and Ghana are now above normal for next week, with high probability of rainfall above 50 mm. With the unrest related to the Ivorian election, some producers have been reluctant to visit farms. A prolonged absence with heavy rains could impact the quality of the beans. It should also be noted that the dry season usually begins in mid-November, early December. ICE US CERTIFIED COCOA STOCKS Cocoa stocks are down to 3361 against 3456 thousand 60 kg bags last week. ICE US and EU cocoa stocks are above last season's stocks at the same period. THE DOLLAR The DXY index representing the Dollar against a basket of foreign currencies closed last week, down sharply at 92.236. The U.S. elections will continue to bring volatility to the currency market. Joe Biden will be sworn in January 20, the Senate remains Republican for now, but a second round will be needed in Georgia. Therefore, there is still a lot of uncertainty about the size and date of the famous plan to support the American economy. Last week's statements by the FED certainly weighed heavily on the dollar. The FED announced that it could increase "its firepower" if necessary. Forex traders are therefore anticipating an increase in the money supply. On Sunday, the United States experienced a record covid-19 for the 4th consecutive day, and even though the news was dominated by the elections, the pandemic could be remembered by investors if the US faces a 2nd wave similar to the one hitting Europe. A return of the dollar as a safe haven is not a possibility to be ignored. The dollar has a strong influence on the price of raw materials, and it will be very difficult to predict its evolution in the coming months. A low dollar is generally favorable to the dollar-denominated commodity markets. COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS The weekly COT (Commitments of Traders) report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows all the positions opened by all market participants. The COT report is published on Friday, and reflects the open positions on Tuesday of the same week. It shows the position of commercial traders (producers, commodity buyers, ...) but also non-commercial (speculators). The net positions of speculators on the futures markets are particularly interesting to observe. The speculative net position on the cocoa futures markets is down sharply this week to 6.908 K instead of 20.449 K.
ICEUS:CC1!
by Commodity-market-review
Weekly copper market review 11/09/2020.Support us by consulting our free daily magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF COPPER Last week, COMEX copper futures closed higher at $3.1540 per pound. As the Dollar dropped sharply this week, the DXY rose from 94.09236 at the end of last week. The pandemic continues unabated, with more than 50 million cases worldwide and more than 1.250 million deaths. Faced with the 2nd wave, Europe is confining itself or imposing curfews. The United States is the first country to exceed 100,000 new cases in one day. Joe Biden wants to set up a crisis unit. In Europe, many non-essential businesses are closed such as bars and restaurants. Last week, the October Caixin manufacturing PMI, representing small and medium enterprises in China came out at 53.6 for 53 expected, above 50 for the 6th month in a row, confirming the recovery of the Chinese manufacturing sector . Euro zone manufacturing PMI was at 54.8 for 54.4 expected, and U.S. manufacturing PMI was at 53.4. In Chile, cumulative copper production up to September was up +0.4% to 4.26 million tonnes. Chile is the world's largest copper producer. Total copper stocks are down to 377,339 MT, below the five-year average. In the United States, Joe Biden will be sworn in on 20 January 2021, the Senate remains Republican for the moment, but there will be a second round in Georgia on 05 January. If the Democrats win both seats, that would bring the distribution to 50-50 seats, and Vice President Kamala Harris could constitutionally break the tie. In the absence of a majority in the Senate, voting on a plan to support the U.S. economy would be made more difficult. This leaves uncertainty as to the timing and amount of the plan. Last week the Fed reaffirmed its willingness to support the US economy and is ready to "increase its firepower" if necessary. The dollar fell sharply, with the DXY dropping from over 94 at the beginning of last week to close Friday at 92.236, a drop that benefited all dollar-denominated commodities. ECONOMIC RESULTS - Last week, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI representing small and medium enterprises in China came out at 53.6 for 53 expected. The Euro-Zone Manufacturing PMI was at 54.8 for 54.4 expected, and the U.S. Manufacturing PMI was at 53.4. Euro-zone retail sales were -2.00% compared with +4.2% in August. - On Saturday, Chinese exports increased by +11.4% in October, while imports disappointed with +4.7% against +9.5% expected. - Tuesday, inflation in China, the ZEW index of economic sentiment in the Euro zone. - Thursday, inflation and US unemployment registrations, industrial production in the Euro zone. - Friday, Euro-zone GDP and Michigan Consumer Confidence Index. CERTIFIED COPPER STOCKS - Copper stocks on the London Stock Exchange, are up to 172450 MT from 171300 MT last week. - Copper stocks on the Shanghai Stock Exchange were down to 131321 for 139657 MT the previous week. - Copper stocks on the New York Stock Exchange are up to 73568 MT from 72357 previously. - Total copper stocks are down to 377,339 MT compared to 383,314 MT last week. Total copper stocks are below the five-year average. THE DOLLAR The DXY index representing the Dollar against a basket of foreign currencies closed last week, down sharply at 92.236. The U.S. elections will continue to bring volatility to the currency market. Joe Biden will be sworn in January 20, the Senate remains Republican for now, but a second round will be needed in Georgia. Therefore, there is still a lot of uncertainty about the size and date of the famous plan to support the American economy. Last week's statements by the FED certainly weighed heavily on the dollar. The FED announced that it could increase "its firepower" if necessary. Forex traders are therefore anticipating an increase in the money supply. On Sunday, the United States experienced a record covid-19 for the 4th consecutive day, and even though the news was dominated by the elections, the pandemic could be remembered by investors if the US faces a 2nd wave similar to the one hitting Europe. A return of the dollar as a safe haven is not a possibility to be ignored. The dollar has a strong influence on the price of raw materials, and it will be very difficult to predict its evolution in the coming months. A low dollar is generally favorable to the dollar-denominated commodity markets. COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS The weekly COT (Commitments of Traders) report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows all the positions opened by all market participants. The COT report is published on Friday, and reflects the open positions on Tuesday of the same week. It shows the position of commercial traders (producers, commodity buyers, ...) but also non-commercial (speculators). The net positions of speculators on the futures markets are particularly interesting to observe. The net speculative position on the copper futures markets is down this week to 61.638 K instead of 66.916 K.
COMEX:HG1!
by Commodity-market-review
Weekly cotton market review 11/09/2020.Support us by consulting our free daily magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF COTTON Last week, ICE U.S. cotton futures closed lower at $68.62 cents per pound. The pandemic continues unabated, we have just surpassed 50 million cases worldwide, with more than 1.250 million deaths. Faced with the 2nd wave, Europe is confining itself or imposing curfews. The United States is the first country to exceed 100,000 new cases in one day. Joe Biden wants to set up a crisis unit. In Europe, many non-essential businesses are closed such as bars and restaurants. Total cash transactions are 317,261 bullets, 16,224 more this week compared to 17,291 the week before. Hurricanes Delta and then Zeta have hit the Delta and Southeast region in recent weeks. -In the Southeast, harvesting has resumed, dry weather has allowed the soil to dry and support heavy equipment. Following the passage of Zeta, some areas were left without electricity at the beginning of the week, and boll rot and reduced quality were observed. The harvest is completed between 25 and 40% depending on the state. -In the Delta, soft soils delayed the harvest. Producers are concerned about the decline in quality and yield. Harvest is 77-91% complete in the South Delta and 52-75% complete in the North Delta, and only 32% complete in Missouri. This week it is the Eta storm that will hit Florida and bring rain to the southeast. ICE U.S. cotton stocks are up to 6,6598 bales, above the five-year average. In the United States, Joe Biden will be sworn in on January 20, 2021. The Senate remains Republican for the time being, but there will be a second round in Georgia on January 5. If the Democrats win both seats, it would bring the distribution to 50-50 seats, and Vice President Kamala Harris could constitutionally break the tie. In the absence of a majority in the Senate, voting on a plan to support the U.S. economy would be made more difficult. This leaves uncertainty as to the timing and amount of the plan. Last week the Fed reaffirmed its willingness to support the US economy and is ready to "increase its firepower" if necessary. The dollar fell sharply, with the DXY dropping from over 94 at the beginning of last week to close Friday at 92.236, a drop that benefited all dollar-denominated commodities. WEATHER IN THE UNITED STATES The hurricane season in the North Atlantic is officially underway until November 30, and the U.S. cotton harvest is still underway. Rainfall in October was higher than normal, with over 200 mm falling in some areas of the southeast and delta regions particularly hard hit by hurricanes Delta and Zeta. Last week the American cotton belt was particularly dry. Next week it is storm Eta that will be to watch out for as it will hit Florida and bring heavy rains to the southeast. Cotton is particularly sensitive to rainfall at this time when the boll caps are open. Moisture causes rot and discoloration of the cotton fiber. ICE US CERTIFIED COTTON STOCKS ICE cotton stocks rose sharply to 6,6598 bales from 45,898 bales last week. Stocks are above the five-year average for the same period. THE DOLLAR The DXY index representing the Dollar against a basket of foreign currencies closed last week, down sharply at 92.236. The U.S. elections will continue to bring volatility to the currency market. Joe Biden will be sworn in January 20, the Senate remains Republican for now, but a second round will be needed in Georgia. Therefore, there is still a lot of uncertainty about the size and date of the famous plan to support the American economy. Last week's statements by the FED certainly weighed heavily on the dollar. The FED announced that it could increase "its firepower" if necessary. Forex traders are therefore anticipating an increase in the money supply. On Sunday, the United States experienced a record covid-19 for the 4th consecutive day, and even though the news was dominated by the elections, the pandemic could be remembered by investors if the US faces a 2nd wave similar to the one hitting Europe. A return of the dollar as a safe haven is not a possibility to be ignored. The dollar has a strong influence on the price of raw materials, and it will be very difficult to predict its evolution in the coming months. A low dollar is generally favorable to the dollar-denominated commodity markets. COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS The weekly COT (Commitments of Traders) report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows all the positions opened by all market participants. The COT report is published on Friday, and reflects the open positions on Tuesday of the same week. It shows the position of commercial traders (producers, commodity buyers, ...) but also non-commercial (speculators). The net positions of speculators on the futures markets are particularly interesting to observe. The speculative net position on the cotton futures markets is down this week to 66.191 K instead of 74.433 K.
ICEUS:CT1!
by Commodity-market-review
Weekly coffee market review 11/09/2020.Support us by consulting our free daily magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF ARABICA COFFEE Last week, ICE US coffee futures closed higher at 106.95 ct/lb. The pandemic continues unabated, we have just passed 50 million cases worldwide, with over 1.250 million deaths. Faced with the 2nd wave, Europe is confining itself or imposing curfews. The United States is the first country to exceed 100,000 new cases in one day. Joe Biden wants to set up a crisis unit. In Europe, many non-essential businesses are closed such as bars and restaurants. Bars and restaurants are places of high coffee consumption, and their closure in Europe will weigh on demand. The end of the year marks the arrival of production from Central American countries, or Colombia, which adds downward pressure to the market. According to the International Coffee Organization, world coffee exports in 2019/20 fell by 4.9% to 126.9 million bags. Production in 2019/20 is estimated at 168.84 million bags, down 2.5%, and consumption fell by 0.9% to 167.59 million bags. This would lead to a surplus of 1.24 million bags. In the United States, Joe Biden will be sworn in on January 20, 2021, the Senate remains Republican for the time being, but there will be a second round in Georgia on January 05. If the Democrats win both seats, that would bring the distribution to 50-50 seats, and Vice President Kamala Harris could constitutionally break the tie. In the absence of a majority in the Senate, voting on a plan to support the U.S. economy would be made more difficult. This leaves uncertainty as to the timing and amount of the plan. Last week the Fed reaffirmed its willingness to support the US economy and is ready to "increase its firepower" if necessary. The dollar fell sharply, with the DXY dropping from over 94 at the beginning of last week to close Friday at 92.236, a drop that benefited all dollar-denominated commodities. WEATHER IN BRAZIL 90% of Brazilian coffee is grown in 4 regions: Minas Gerais, Espirito Santo, Sao Paulo and Parana. Rainfall was below normal in October in the Brazilian coffee belt. The rains were late in coming and irreversible damage is feared for the next harvest. The rainy season has now begun. Last week the rains were below normal. Minas Gerais and Espirito Santo received 50 mm, while further south Sao Paulo and Parana were drier. According to the forecast, next week the rains will be in line with normal with a probability of rainfall above 50 mm. ICE US CERTIFIED COFFEE STOCKS Coffee stocks are up to 1.170 million 60 kg bags compared to 1.129 last week. ICE US stocks of Arabica coffee are below the five-year average. The low stocks may provide some support to the coffee price on futures contracts. THE DOLLAR The DXY index representing the Dollar against a basket of foreign currencies closed last week, down sharply at 92.236. The U.S. elections will continue to bring volatility to the currency market. Joe Biden will be sworn in January 20, the Senate remains Republican for now, but a second round will be needed in Georgia. Therefore, there is still a lot of uncertainty about the size and date of the famous plan to support the American economy. Last week's statements by the FED certainly weighed heavily on the dollar. The FED announced that it could increase "its firepower" if necessary. Forex traders are therefore anticipating an increase in the money supply. On Sunday, the United States experienced a record covid-19 for the 4th consecutive day, and even though the news was dominated by the elections, the pandemic could be remembered by investors if the US faces a 2nd wave similar to the one hitting Europe. A return of the dollar as a safe haven is not a possibility to be ignored. The dollar has a strong influence on the price of raw materials, and it will be very difficult to predict its evolution in the coming months. A low dollar is generally favorable to the dollar-denominated commodity markets. Last week, the Brazilian Real closed sharply higher at 0.1862, breaking Friday's 0.1750/0.1810 range in which it had been trading since the end of September. The fall of the Dollar allowed the Brazilian Real to rebound. The BRL/USD pair is positively correlated with coffee futures prices. A weak Real increases the competitiveness of Brazilian producers and encourages them to export. COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS The weekly COT (Commitments of Traders) report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows all the positions opened by all market participants. The COT report is published on Friday, and reflects the open positions on Tuesday of the same week. It shows the position of commercial traders (producers, commodity buyers, ...) but also non-commercial (speculators). The net positions of speculators on the futures markets are particularly interesting to observe. The speculative net position on the coffee futures markets is down this week to 28,021 K instead of 35,421 K.
ICEUS:KC1!
by Commodity-market-review
Weekly copper market review 11/02/2020.Support us by consulting our free daily magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF COPPER Last week, COMEX copper futures closed lower at $3.0470 per pound. The worsening health situation with a sharp increase in covid-19 cases in the US and Europe has strongly impacted the markets last week. With the magnitude of the second wave, Europe is reconfirming itself, as is the case in Ireland, Czech Republic, France, Germany, England, Portugal, Austria, and countries such as Spain and Italy, and others are taking increasingly drastic measures, such as curfews, closing bars and restaurants, or limiting people in meetings. The United States is seeing a record number of covid cases in the run-up to the election. The rise of the dollar also weighs on the price of copper. It can be explained by the safe haven status of the greenback, and by the postponement of the American support plan. Chilean copper production amounted to 484K tons for September, a decrease of 0.8% compared to 2019. Accumulated production in September amounted to 3,302 thousand tons, an increase of 0.5%. Chile is the world's largest copper producer. Total copper stocks are down to 383314 MT, losing 23415 tons in one week. In the United States, the American election is scheduled for tomorrow, November 3, and tensions in the market cannot be excluded. Investors fear the possibility that Donald Trump will be declared a narrow loser and do not want to recognize the results, making the transition more complicated and delaying the vote on the long-awaited plan to support the US economy. ECONOMIC RESULTS - Last week, as a pleasant surprise, US GDP rose by +33.1% in Q3 for an expected 31%, and in the Euro zone, GDP was +12.7% in Q3 for only +9.4% expected. - On Saturday, China's manufacturing PMI rose to 51.4 for an expected 51.3. - On Monday, the Caixin manufacturing PMI representing small and medium enterprises in China comes out at 53.6 for 53 expected. The Euro zone manufacturing PMI is at 54.8 for 54.4 expected, and the U.S. manufacturing PMI is at 53.4. - Tuesday, the U.S. presidential election and industrial orders. - Thursday, Euro-zone retail sales. - Friday, the U.S. employment report. CERTIFIED COPPER STOCKS - Copper stocks on the London Stock Exchange are down to 171300 MT from 180300 MT last week. - Copper stocks on the Shanghai Stock Exchange were down to 139657 for 155506 MT the previous week. - Copper stocks on the New York Stock Exchange are up to 72357 MT from 70923 previously. - Total copper stocks are down to 383314 MT compared to 406729 MT last week. Total copper stocks are below the five-year average. THE DOLLAR The DXY index representing the Dollar against a basket of foreign currencies closed last week up to 93.882. The 2nd epidemic wave is scaring the market and the Dollar seems to be playing its role as a safe-haven currency. The chances of a quick agreement on a plan to support the U.S. economy are now nil. We will have to wait now for the election result, and this is beneficial to the Dollar in the short term. On the FED side, things will certainly remain frozen until the outcome of the American election. The FED has insisted on the need for a quick vote of a support plan, and assures that the key rates will remain permanently low. A low dollar is generally favorable for dollar-denominated commodity markets. COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS The weekly COT (Commitments of Traders) report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows all the positions opened by all market participants. The COT report is published on Friday, and reflects the open positions on Tuesday of the same week. It shows the position of commercial traders (producers, commodity buyers, ...) but also non-commercial (speculators). The net positions of speculators on the futures markets are particularly interesting to observe. The net speculative position on the copper futures markets is down this week to 66.916 K instead of 67.265 K.
COMEX:HG1!
by Commodity-market-review
Weekly cotton market review 11/02/2020.Support us by consulting our free daily magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF COTTON Last week, ICE U.S. cotton futures closed lower at $68.90 cents per pound. The worsening health situation with a sharp increase in covid-19 cases in the U.S. and Europe has strongly impacted markets last week. With the magnitude of the 2nd wave, Europe is reconfirming itself, as is the case in Ireland, Czech Republic, France, Germany, England, Portugal, Austria, and countries such as Spain and Italy, and others are taking increasingly drastic measures, such as curfews, closing bars and restaurants, or limiting people in meetings. The United States is seeing a record number of covid cases in the run-up to the election. Total cash transactions are 301,037 balls this season compared to 215,015 last season at the same time. After Hurricane Delta, it was Zeta's turn last week to dump heavy rainfall in the Delta and the Southeast. Zeta caused extensive damage to trees, power lines and buildings. The national weather service reported that more than 2.5 million people were without power in the storm's path. The storm brought rainfall of 5 to 10 centimeters in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. The National Weather Service issued river flood warnings. Harvesting operations, which had begun to expand, were again at a standstill due to bad weather in some areas. ICE US cotton stocks rose to 45,898 bales, above the five-year average. In the United States, the US election is scheduled for tomorrow, November 3, and market tensions cannot be ruled out. Investors fear the possibility that Donald Trump will be declared a narrow loser and do not want to recognize the results, making the transition more complicated and delaying the vote on the long-awaited plan to support the US economy. WEATHER IN THE UNITED STATES The hurricane season in the North Atlantic is officially underway until November 30, and the U.S. cotton harvest is still underway. After Hurricane Delta, it was Zeta's turn last week to dump heavy rainfall in the Delta and the Southeast. Zeta caused extensive damage to trees, power lines and buildings. The national weather service reported that more than 2.5 million people were without power in the storm's path. The storm brought rainfall of 5 to 10 centimeters in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. The National Weather Service issued river flood warnings. Cotton is particularly sensitive to rainfall at this time of year when the bolls are open. Moisture causes rotting and staining of the cotton fiber. ICE US CERTIFIED COTTON STOCKS ICE cotton stocks rose to 45,898 bales from 3,371 last week. Stocks are back above the five-year average over the same period. THE DOLLAR The DXY index representing the Dollar against a basket of foreign currencies closed last week up to 93.882. The 2nd epidemic wave is scaring the market and the Dollar seems to be playing its role as a safe-haven currency. The chances of a quick agreement on a plan to support the U.S. economy are now nil. We will have to wait now for the election result, and this is beneficial to the Dollar in the short term. On the FED side, things will certainly remain frozen until the outcome of the American election. The FED has insisted on the need for a quick vote of a support plan, and they assure that the key rates will remain permanently low. A low dollar is generally favorable for dollar-denominated commodity markets. COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS The weekly COT (Commitments of Traders) report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows all the positions opened by all market participants. The COT report is published on Friday, and reflects the open positions on Tuesday of the same week. It shows the position of commercial traders (producers, commodity buyers, ...) but also non-commercial (speculators). The net positions of speculators on the futures markets are particularly interesting to observe. The speculative net position on the cotton futures market is up this week to 74.433 K instead of 71.176 K.
ICEUS:CT1!
by Commodity-market-review
Weekly cocoa market review 11/02/2020.Support us by consulting our free daily magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF COCOA Last week, ICE U.S. cocoa futures closed sharply lower at $2,294 per ton, losing more than $200 in one week. First, the worsening health situation with a sharp increase in covid-19 cases in the U.S. and Europe had a strong impact on markets last week. In front of the magnitude of the 2nd wave, Europe is reconfirming itself, this is the case of Ireland, Czech Republic, France, Germany, England, Portugal, Austria, and countries like Spain or Italy and others are taking more and more drastic measures, such as curfews, closing bars and restaurants, or limiting people in meetings. Then, after a very good harvest 2019/20, the season 2020/21, starts very strong with arrivals in Ivorian ports which are 317K tons as of October 25, against 208K tons at the same period the previous season. Grinding reports for the third quarter were down 4.7% in Europe, down 4.02% in the USA, and down 10.1% in Asia. And finally, last week the Coffee and Cocoa Council learned that Ivory Coast was having difficulty selling the remaining 500K tonnes of its 2020/21 intermediate crop. Indeed, to guarantee a fixed price to producers, the harvest is mainly sold in advance. The Ivorian presidential election held Saturday, October 31, had raised cocoa prices from 2330 to just over 2500 dollars per ton. Investors fearing violence. The toll is heavy with about thirty dead and a hundred injured since President Ouattara announced his candidacy for a third term. The election was held and Alassane Ouattara should be re-elected with an overwhelming majority. 23% of the polling stations could not open because of degradation or blockades, under the slogan of civil disobedience of the opposition. But the investors have decided, the situation is not serious enough to disrupt the supply of cocoa for the moment. The official results will be announced normally before Tuesday, and the reaction of the opposition and future events will be monitored. In the United States, the American election is scheduled for tomorrow, November 3, and market tensions are not excluded. Investors fear the possibility that Donald Trump will be declared a narrow loser and do not want to recognize the results, making the transition more complicated and delaying the vote on the long-awaited plan to support the U.S. economy. WEATHER IN WEST AFRICA Ivory Coast experienced above normal rainfall in September and October. Last week's rains were above the five-year average in most cocoa-producing areas of Ivory Coast, with 25-50 mm of rainfall, with very heavy rains in the south and southwest of the country. The Agboville region, for example, received up to 150mm of rainfall. The forecasts in Ivory Coast and Ghana are now in line with normal for the next 2 weeks. ICE US CERTIFIED COCOA STOCKS Cocoa stocks are down sharply to 3456 against 3500 thousand 60 kg bags last week. ICE US and EU cocoa stocks have risen above last season's stocks at the same time. THE DOLLAR The DXY index representing the Dollar against a basket of foreign currencies closed last week up to 93.882. The 2nd epidemic wave is scaring the market and the Dollar seems to be playing its role as a safe-haven currency. The chances of a quick agreement on a plan to support the U.S. economy are now nil. We will have to wait now for the election result, and this is beneficial to the Dollar in the short term. On the FED side, things will certainly remain frozen until the outcome of the American election. The FED has insisted on the need for a quick vote of a support plan, and they assure that the key rates will remain permanently low. A low dollar is generally favorable for dollar-denominated commodity markets. COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS The weekly COT (Commitments of Traders) report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows all the positions opened by all market participants. The COT report is published on Friday, and reflects the open positions on Tuesday of the same week. It shows the position of commercial traders (producers, commodity buyers, ...) but also non-commercial (speculators). The net positions of speculators on the futures markets are particularly interesting to observe. The speculative net position on the cocoa futures markets is up this week to 20.449 K instead of 13.928 K.
ICEUS:CC1!
by Commodity-market-review
Commodity bull runCommodities are awakening from their slumber which is sparking renewed global inflation fears. Due to escalating global tensions, crude oil has surged more than 10% since the start of March which has seen the price per barrel close above $90 per barrel last week. Precious metals along with industrial metals have also benefitted from the rise in oil prices which has seen the Reuters Core Commodity index climb to a 6-month high. As mentioned previously, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) fight against inflation is essentially its fight against oil and this recent break-out in commodity prices has poured some cold water on the expectations that the Fed will start cutting rates as soon as June this year. The index will test the resistance level of 300, the 61.8% Fibo retracement, soon and a break above this level will allow the current commodity bull to race towards the 2022 high of 330.
TVC:TRJEFFCRBLong
by Goose96
Commodity vs Equity market comparisonHere's a COMT, VTI & VEU 3 split chart layout with 1 week, 1 day & 1 hour charts. COMT is white, VTI is blue and VEU is yellow. This includes my personal commodity channel indicator with COMT white, VTI blue and VEU yellow. At these exaggerated levels, with FOMC 3/16, quad witching 3/18 and spring season 3/20, I am looking for a commodity peak and pullback. COMT = iShares GSCI Commodity Roll Strategy VTI = Vanguard Total Stock Market Index VEU = Vanguard FTSE All-World ex US Index Do your own due diligence, your risk is 100% your responsibility. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only. You win some or you learn some. Consider being charitable with some of your profit to help humankind. Good luck and happy trading friends... *3x lucky 7s of trading* 7pt Trading compass: Price action, entry/exit Volume average/direction Trend, patterns, momentum Newsworthy current events Revenue Earnings Balance sheet 7 Common mistakes: +5% portfolio trades, capital risk management Beware of analyst's motives Emotions & Opinions FOMO : bad timing, the market is ruthless, be shrewd Lack of planning & discipline Forgetting restraint Obdurate repetitive errors, no adaptation 7 Important tools: Trading View app!, Brokerage UI Accurate indicators & settings Wide screen monitor/s Trading log (pencil & graph paper) Big, organized desk Reading books, playing chess Sorted watch-list Checkout my indicators: Fibonacci VIP - volume Fibonacci MA7 - price pi RSI - trend momentum TTC - trend channel AlertiT - notification tickerTracker - MFI Oscillator www.tradingview.com
NASDAQ:COMTShort
by Options360
Weekly coffee market review 12/21/2020.Support us by consulting our free magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF ARABICA COFFEE Last week, ICE US coffee futures closed higher at 125.25 ct/lb. Arabica coffee prices, although they could not reach them, approached the highs of August. The USDA reduced world coffee production by 0.34% to 175.50 million bags. They forecast world coffee demand for the same period at 165.40 million bags. Their latest forecast would indicate the potential for a world coffee surplus of 10.1 million bags. CONAB, announced that Brazilian coffee producers, due to positive biennial factors for Arabica coffee plantations, are expected to produce 63.08 million bags for the season from July 2020 to June 2021. This estimate has been revised upwards by 2.36% compared to their previous estimate of 61.62 million bags. CONAB has revised its projections for Arabica coffee production upwards by 3.17% compared to its last estimate, which is now expected to total 48.80 million bags, while Robusta production has also been revised upwards by 0.70% compared to their last estimate to 14.30 million bags. The area under coffee cultivation in Brazil increased by 3.9% in 2020 compared to the previous year, to 1.88 million hectares. On the international level, the Republican leader of the Senate Mitch McConnell announced Sunday evening that a 900 billion agreement would be reached. The Fed said its stock purchases would continue at the current rate of $120 billion per month until substantial additional progress has been made. The brexit saga continues, with the European Parliament's Sunday night deadline for a deal passed, but negotiations will continue. No one seems to want to take responsibility for a possible failure. After Pfizer, the FDA also approved Moderna's vaccine. As far as the pandemic is concerned, the vaccination campaign has started in the United States. The new strain of coronavirus detected in Great Britain worries, it would be 70% more contagious. The global death toll is rising, we have just passed 76 million cases worldwide, with more than 1.692 million deaths. The United States is still the most affected country, with 317,000 deaths and more than 17 million cases. The Dollar fell last week, with the DXY closing lower at 89.924, hitting a 2 1/2 year low. The long-term trend is still bearish. WEATHER IN BRAZIL 90% of Brazilian coffee is grown in 4 regions: Minas Gerais, Espirito Santo, Sao Paulo and Parana. The rainy season has started and lasts until April-May. Rainfall was below normal in October and November in the Brazilian coffee belt. The rains were late in coming and irreversible damage is feared for the next harvest. Last week, rains were below normal, especially in northern Minas Gerais. However, the wet weather in December is perceived as more favorable for the next harvest. Heavy rains are expected next week. ICE US CERTIFIED COFFEE STOCKS Coffee stocks are up to 1.370 million 60 Kg bags, compared to 1.324 last week. ICE US stocks of Arabica coffee are below the five-year average. The low stocks may provide some support to the coffee price on futures contracts. THE DOLLAR The DXY index representing the Dollar against a basket of foreign currencies closed last week down to 89.924, hitting a 2 1/2 year low. The long-term trend is still bearish. The possibilities of reaching an agreement on a contingency plan to support the U.S. economy, as well as the possibility of an economic recovery, are expected to continue. Disappointing economic results weighed on the currency last week. Indeed, U.S. Retail Sales down to -0.9% and Unemployment Claims up to 885K disappointed. The Brazilian Real closed stable at 0.1962 last week. The Brazilian Real has been benefiting in recent weeks from the falling Dollar, breaking the bearish channel it was in, and benefiting greatly from the rise in coffee prices this past week. If the dollar's downtrend remains unchanged, the Real will surely test the 0.20 it hasn't reached since June. The BRL/USD pair is positively correlated with coffee futures prices. A low Real increases the competitiveness of Brazilian producers and encourages them to export. COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS The weekly COT (Commitments of Traders) report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows all the positions opened by all market participants. The COT report is published on Friday, and reflects the open positions on Tuesday of the same week. It shows the position of commercial traders (producers, commodity buyers, ...) but also non-commercial (speculators). The net positions of speculators on the futures markets are particularly interesting to observe. The speculative net position on the cotton futures markets is up this week to 36.105 K instead of 31.519 K.
ICEUS:KC1!
by Commodity-market-review
Weekly coffee market review 12/14/2020.Support us by consulting our free magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF ARABICA COFFEE Last week, ICE US coffee futures closed higher at 121.60 ct/lb. The International Coffee Organization ICO reported that world coffee exports for October were 3.19% higher than the same month last year at 9.672 million bags. Cumulative world coffee exports for the first 10 months of 2020 were 3.8% lower than the previous year, totalling 107.08 million bags. According to the ICO, world coffee supply is estimated at 168.55 million bags over the last 12 months, and world consumption at around 167.59 million bags. This would result in a world coffee market in slight oversupply. The association of coffee exporters in Brazil Cecafé reported that exports were 3.69 million bags of Arabica coffee, an increase of 33.85% compared to the same month last year. Regarding Robusta coffee, the trade in Vietnam is now in full swing as farmers begin to supply more and more coffee. The harvest is estimated to be 25% complete and is accelerating now that weather conditions are more favorable and drier. Forecasts are estimated for this new crop, between 27 million and 28 million bags for Vietnam and 11.60 million bags for Indonesia. In Brazil, more favourable weather in early December is being observed with heavy rains over the vast coffee growing areas in Brazil. The rainy weather is welcome after months of drier weather, although irreversible damage will be expected. Local consumption in Brazil, at around 21.50 million bags per year, is expected to be slightly lower overall this year. Internationally, the ECB has increased its asset repurchase program by 500 billion, the US support plan is still slow in coming, and a brexit no-deal is increasingly likely. The FDA in turn is approving the use of Pfizer's vaccine, and vaccination begins this week in the US. In terms of the pandemic update, we have just surpassed 72 million cases worldwide, with more than 1.607 million deaths. The U.S. is still the most affected country, and will approach and surpass the 300,000 mark in deaths and more than 16 million cases. The Dollar consolidated last week as the DXY closed higher at 90.976, with the long-term trend still bearish. WEATHER IN BRAZIL 90% of Brazilian coffee is grown in 4 regions: Minas Gerais, Espirito Santo, Sao Paulo and Parana. The rainy season has started and lasts until April-May. Rainfall was below normal in October and November in the Brazilian coffee belt. The rains were late in coming and irreversible damage is feared for the next harvest. Last week, rains were abundant, with up to 75 to 100 mm, especially in Minas Gerais. The rainy weather in December is seen as more favorable for the next harvest. Next week, heavy rains are also expected, but this time further south in Sao Paulo and Parana. ICE US CERTIFIED COFFEE STOCKS Coffee stocks are up to 1.324 million 60 kg bags, compared to 1.294 last week. ICE US stocks of Arabica coffee are below the five-year average. The low stocks may provide some support to the coffee price on futures contracts. THE DOLLAR The DXY index representing the Dollar against a basket of foreign currencies closed last week up at 90.976, although the long-term trend is still bearish. The DXY consolidated last week. The ECB increased its asset repurchase program by $500 billion, and, the U.S. support plan is still lagging behind, still failing to agree on emergency aid of just over $900 billion. The dollar has also strengthened against the pound sterling, on an increasingly likely no-deal, as the disagreements seem so deep. Last week, the Brazilian Real closed higher at 0.1971, for the 4th consecutive week. The Brazilian Real has been benefiting in recent weeks from the falling Dollar, breaking the bearish channel it was in, and benefiting greatly from the rise in coffee prices this past week. If the dollar's downtrend remains unchanged, the Real will surely test the 0.20 it hasn't reached since June. The BRL/USD pair is positively correlated with coffee futures prices. A low Real increases the competitiveness of Brazilian producers and encourages them to export. COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS The weekly COT (Commitments of Traders) report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows all the positions opened by all market participants. The COT report is published on Friday, and reflects the open positions on Tuesday of the same week. It shows the position of commercial traders (producers, commodity buyers, ...) but also non-commercial (speculators). The net positions of speculators on the futures markets are particularly interesting to observe. The speculative net position on the cotton futures markets is down this week to 31.519 K instead of 32.265 K.
ICEUS:KC1!
by Commodity-market-review
1
Weekly coffee market review 12/07/2020.Support us by consulting our free daily magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF ARABICA COFFEE Last week, ICE US coffee futures closed lower at 117.55 ct/lb. The National Federation of Coffee Growers of Colombia reported that the country's coffee production for November was 63,000 bags, 4.18% less than the same month last year, for a total of 1,443,000 bags. She also reported that the country's coffee exports for November were 109,000 bags, 9.38% more than the same month last year, for a total of 1,271,000 bags. Arabica coffee almost erased the increase of the previous week. Fears that the crop in Central America will be affected are now over. Arabica coffee prices had benefited from concerns about Robusta coffee supply. Vietnam, the largest producer of this type of coffee, experienced very heavy rains after the passage of several typhoons, raising fears of a smaller crop. The worst of the storms have now passed, weather conditions are better and the harvest is very active. In Brazil, forecasts for the next harvest are still on the decline due to the effects of drought. Rainfall in the Brazilian coffee belt this summer and also in October and November has been below normal. Internationally, last week was marked by the sharp fall of the dollar. The DXY, after breaking through the resistance of the 92, is heading towards the 90, and the Euro was close to $1.22 after disappointing US empoi figures. Hopes for a vaccine, the FED reaffirming that the priority remains to support the economy, and the joint Democratic and Republican proposal for a $908 billion emergency plan are driving equity markets. Curiously, commodities as a whole did not benefit from the dollar's decline. Discussions between the British and the Europeans continue as the December 31 deadline approaches in the hope of reaching a post-brexit trade agreement. Regarding the pandemic update, we have just passed the 67 million cases worldwide, with more than 1.537 million deaths. The United States continues to be the most affected country with more than 282,000 deaths and more than 14.7 million cases. Italy has passed the 60,000 death mark, and the United States is facing a spectacular rebound of the epidemic with more than 230,000 cases in 24 hours on Saturday. The United Kingdom, the first country to authorize Pfizer vaccine, begins vaccination on Tuesday. WEATHER IN BRAZIL 90% of Brazilian coffee is grown in 4 regions: Minas Gerais, Espirito Santo, Sao Paulo and Parana. The rainy season has started and lasts until April-May. Rainfall was below normal in October in the Brazilian coffee belt. Rainfall was also lower in November. The rains were late in coming and irreversible damage is feared for the next harvest. Last week's rains were also below normal. Next week, heavy rains are expected in Minas Gerais. ICE US CERTIFIED COFFEE STOCKS Coffee stocks are up to 1.294 million 60 Kg bags, compared to 1.245 last week. ICE US stocks of Arabica coffee are below the five-year average. The low stocks may provide some support to the coffee price on futures contracts. THE DOLLAR The DXY index representing the Dollar against a range of foreign currencies closed last week down to 90.701, and the trend is still bearish. The DXY after breaking the 92 resistance, plunged last week and is on its way to the 90. The Euro rose as high as 1.2175 on Friday after very disappointing U.S. employment figures. As a backdrop, Powell said the priority remains to support the economy, and Democrats and Republicans are working together on a $908 billion emergency support proposal as a first step. For later, once the Joe biden administration is in place, work for a more substantial plan. Forex traders are anticipating an increase in the money supply. Last week, the Brazilian Real closed sharply higher at 0.1935. The Dollar weakened against most currencies and the Brazilian Real took advantage of this in recent weeks, breaking the bearish vanal it was in. If the Dollar's downtrend remains unchanged, the Real will surely test the 0.20 it has not reached since June. The BRL/USD pair is positively correlated with coffee futures prices. A low Real increases the competitiveness of Brazilian producers and encourages them to export. COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS The weekly COT (Commitments of Traders) report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows all the positions opened by all market participants. The COT report is published on Friday, and reflects the open positions on Tuesday of the same week. It shows the position of commercial traders (producers, commodity buyers, ...) but also non-commercial (speculators). The net positions of speculators on the futures markets are particularly interesting to observe. The speculative net position on the coffee futures markets is up this week to 32.265 K instead of 30.616 K.
ICEUS:KC1!
by Commodity-market-review
Weekly coffee market review 11/23/2020.Support us by consulting our free daily magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF ARABICA COFFEE Last week, ICE US coffee futures closed higher at 118.05 ct/lb. Hopes for a vaccine are fuelling the markets, and Pfizer and Moderna have announced very encouraging results. Many countries, such as the United States, Germany, Spain, and others, are already preparing vaccination campaigns. The pandemic continues unabated, with more than 58 million cases worldwide and more than 1.382 million deaths. The United States is the most affected country with more than 256,000 deaths and more than 12 million cases. The hope of a vaccine, as well as the prospects of a massive stimulus package, is driving the markets. The dollar is still low and in a downward trend, the DXY closes at 92.392. The end of the year marks the arrival of production from Central American countries. Last week, the powerful Hurricane Iota hit Central America and Honduras, an important coffee producing region. Colombian production is expected to remain stable at 14.1 million bags, thanks to the replanting of rust resistant coffee trees. 83% of Colombia's total area would have been renewed with these varieties. The price of Arabica coffee is also benefiting from concerns about the supply of Robusta coffee. Vietnam, the largest producer of this type of coffee, is encountering very heavy rains following the passage of several typhoons, causing fears of a smaller harvest and smaller bean sizes. In Brazil, forecasts for the next harvest are still down due to the effects of the drought this summer, particularly in Minas Gerais. Rainfall in the Brazilian coffee belt in October was below normal, and also in November after 3 weeks. In addition, Arabica coffee trees are on a biannual cycle of small and large harvests, so the next crop will be smaller anyway. According to the International Coffee Organization, world coffee exports in 2019/20 fell by 4.9% to 126.9 million bags. Production in 2019/20 is estimated at 168.84 million bags, down 2.5%, and consumption fell by 0.9% to 167.59 million bags. This would lead to a surplus of 1.24 million bags. WEATHER IN BRAZIL 90% of Brazilian coffee is grown in 4 regions: Minas Gerais, Espirito Santo, Sao Paulo and Parana. Rainfall was below normal in October in the Brazilian coffee belt. The rains were late in coming and irreversible damage is feared for the next harvest. The rainy season has now begun. Last week the rains were below normal. It fell about 50 mm. After 3 weeks, the rainfall over the month of November is still below normal. According to the forecast, next week the rains will also be below normal, with only 20-30% chance of rainfall above 50 mm. ICE US CERTIFIED COFFEE STOCKS Coffee stocks are up to 1.236 million bags of 60 Kg, compared to 1.198 the previous week. ICE US stocks of Arabica coffee are below the five-year average. The low stocks may provide some support to the coffee price on futures contracts. THE DOLLAR The DXY index representing the Dollar against a range of foreign currencies closed last week down to 92.392, and the trend is still bearish. Joe Biden, who will be invested on January 20, spoke of a $3 trillion support plan. Forex traders are anticipating an increase in the money supply. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has called on the FED to return unused funds from emergency aid programs for the coronavirus crisis. The FED has decided to do so, although it considers this decision premature. Last week, this did not cause much movement in the currency market, which remained relatively calm. The previous week, the Brazilian Real closed higher at 0.1855. The fall of the Dollar benefits the Real. The BRL/USD pair is positively correlated with coffee futures prices. A weak Real increases the competitiveness of Brazilian producers and encourages them to export. COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS The weekly COT (Commitments of Traders) report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows all the positions opened by all market participants. The COT report is published on Friday, and reflects the open positions on Tuesday of the same week. It shows the position of commercial traders (producers, commodity buyers, ...) but also non-commercial (speculators). The net positions of speculators on the futures markets are particularly interesting to observe. The speculative net position on the coffee futures markets is down this week to 24.006 K instead of 28.021 K.
ICEUS:KC1!
by Commodity-market-review
Weekly coffee market review 11/02/2020.Support us by consulting our free daily magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF ARABICA COFFEE Last week, ICE US coffee futures closed lower at 104.35 ct/lb. The worsening health situation with a sharp increase in covid-19 cases in the USA and Europe has strongly impacted the markets last week. Due to the magnitude of the 2nd wave, Europe is reconfirming itself, this is the case of Ireland, Czech Republic, France, Germany, England, Portugal, Austria, and countries such as Spain or Italy and others are taking more and more drastic measures, such as curfews, closing bars and restaurants, or limiting people in meetings. The United States is seeing a record number of covid cases in the run-up to the election. Bars and restaurants are places of high coffee consumption, and their closure in Europe will weigh on demand. The International Coffee Organization (ICO) forecasts a surplus of 1.54 million bags for the 2019/20 season. The drought of the previous months will have an impact on the next harvest in Brazil even though the rains have now arrived. The very low Real is benefiting Brazilian coffee exporters who are taking advantage of their increased competitiveness to flood the market. According to Reuters, 64% of Brazilian production has already been sold compared to the five-year average of 53%. The depreciation of the local currency increases producers' income from dollar-denominated products. In the United States, the American election is scheduled for tomorrow, November 3, and tensions on the market are not excluded. Investors fear the possibility that Donald Trump may be declared a narrow loser and do not want to recognize the results, making the transition more complicated and delaying the vote on the long-awaited plan to support the US economy. WEATHER IN BRAZIL 90% of Brazilian coffee is grown in 4 regions: Minas Gerais, Espirito Santo, Sao Paulo and Parana. Rainfall was below normal in October in the Brazilian coffee belt. The rains were late in coming and irreversible damage is feared for the next harvest. The rainy season has now begun. Rainfall last week ranged from 50 to 100 mm. ICE US CERTIFIED COFFEE STOCKS Coffee stocks are up to 1.149 million bags of 60 Kg for 1.129 last week. ICE US stocks of Arabica coffee are below the five-year average. The low stocks may provide some support to the coffee price on futures contracts. THE DOLLAR The DXY index representing the Dollar against a basket of foreign currencies closed last week up to 93.882. The 2nd epidemic wave is scaring the market and the Dollar seems to be playing its role as a safe-haven currency. The chances of a quick agreement on a plan to support the U.S. economy are now nil. We will have to wait now for the election result, and this is beneficial to the Dollar in the short term. On the FED side, things will certainly remain frozen until the outcome of the American election. The FED has insisted on the need for a quick vote of a support plan, and assures that the key rates will remain permanently low. Last week, the Brazilian Real closed lower at 0.1726. The trend is still bearish. The rise of the Dollar, which plays its role as a safe haven, is weighing on the Brazilian Real. The BRL/USD pair is positively correlated with coffee futures prices. A weak Real increases the competitiveness of Brazilian producers and encourages them to export. COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS The weekly COT (Commitments of Traders) report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows all the positions opened by all market participants. The COT report is published on Friday, and reflects the open positions on Tuesday of the same week. It shows the position of commercial traders (producers, commodity buyers, ...) but also non-commercial (speculators). The net positions of speculators on the futures markets are particularly interesting to observe. The speculative net position on the coffee futures market is down this week to 35,421 K instead of 40,708 K.
ICEUS:KC1!
by Commodity-market-review
COMMODITY EXPORTER VS COMMODITY IMPORTERThis trade is based off the assumption that commodities will rise in value over the next 3 months. Base metals such copper are at significant support levels. Commodities such as Oats are also poised to drive higher. The Australians are a significant commodity producers, while the Swiss are significant commodity importers so this trade should work out on fundamental and structural factors at play. Let's plan on scoring about 400 pips here with a plan to take profit at .7881 or move stops to .77 I suspect the price action to follow along this upward channel and to eventually touch the point where the fibonacci spiral meets the upper blue line, but maybe sooner. I have outlined a upward sloping trend line as well as a horizontal meeting to form significant support starting now. Goodluck.
Long
by Zentrades
SSW - Price action vs commodity price trendsCommodity prices increased on upwards trend during the year, compared to SSW which declined due to reporting results of the last Q2. Even though commodity prices are up, the USD ZAR also plays a role here and the Rand was strong the last quarter which would impact the groups profitability in this Q. The rand is easing against the USD with the interest rate cuts going on and overall global uncertainty of the middle east. If you can cancel out the global noise then this stock is something to keep an eye on. (This is my stockpick notes - not financial advise)
JSE:SSWLong
by John2506
Commodity Bonanza , After Gold, It's Black Gold - 7/7/2016Fantastic run with commodity trades continues and seems like there is nothing which can go wrong ! After hitting bull's-eye in Gold during Brexit, which gave us the biggest one day gain of $90, today another commodity, Crude oil aka black gold plunged $2 in just hours after entry from 48. ( Please check the linked trade idea from yesterday) Looks like at this rate one can retire in a year ;) Well this post is not for boasting about how good the trades were. Anyone who has traded for long knows markets humble you the time you feel being on top of it. So win or loss is traders life but eventually good traders are in profit because of better risk control mechanism. The point we would like to stress is about getting a grip on Technical Analysis. Especially for novice traders who are looking for answers to the question about how to trade profitably. And also for the skeptics of technical analysis. Technical Analysis is the sole beacon for traders in often stormy markets. Many times there is no clear visibility of a trade based on fundamental arguments. Only technical analysis can give you clear entry and exit points based on strict risk control. There is no foolproof indicator. Neither there is any magical trick. Only path to good profitable trading skill is hard work in right direction and understanding of the tape aka price action itself. People often miss simple support and resistance and go astray by some esoteric technique promising great returns. We are not painters and thus our charts don't look like Picasso's master pieces ;) If you haven't yet then please learn technical analysis to trade better ! Good luck trading :)
FX:USOILShort
by BombayBulls
Commodity currencies are struggling | FX ResearchThe commodity block currencies have been hit hard of late and are once again extending declines to multi-month lows against the US dollar. We're seeing clear divergence in monetary policy outlooks with deteriorating economic data in Australia, New Zealand, and Canada weighing on the respective currencies, while the added risk of trade wars only makes things that much more challenging. Of course, the Canadian dollar is also contending with political drama in Canada amidst a string of key resignations. Economic data has more or less been softer in most major economies outside of the US, including the Euro area. On Tuesday, US data went the other way again with retail sales coming in above forecast. It's been fairly easy to understand why the US dollar has been so well bid and US equities remain propped up. Key standouts on Wednesday's calendar come from UK inflation, Eurozone inflation, US housing starts, and building permits, and of course, the Fed decision late in the day. Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
by BlackBull_Markets