OF ARABICA COFFEE
Last week, ICE US coffee futures closed lower at 104.35 ct / lb . The worsening health situation with a sharp increase in covid-19 cases in the USA and Europe has strongly impacted the markets last week. Due to the magnitude of the 2nd wave, Europe is reconfirming itself, this is the case of Ireland, Czech Republic, France, Germany, England, Portugal, Austria, and countries such as Spain or Italy and others are taking more and more drastic measures, such as curfews, closing bars and restaurants, or limiting people in meetings. The United States is seeing a record number of covid cases in the run-up to the election.
Bars and restaurants are places of high coffee consumption, and their closure in Europe will weigh on demand.
The International Coffee Organization ( ICO ) forecasts a surplus of 1.54 million bags for the 2019/20 season. The drought of the previous months will have an impact on the next harvest in Brazil even though the rains have now arrived.
The very low Real is benefiting Brazilian coffee exporters who are taking advantage of their increased competitiveness to flood the market. According to Reuters, 64% of Brazilian production has already been sold compared to the five-year average of 53%. The depreciation of the local currency increases producers' income from dollar-denominated products.
In the United States, the American election is scheduled for tomorrow, November 3, and tensions on the market are not excluded. Investors fear the possibility that Donald Trump may be declared a narrow loser and do not want to recognize the results, making the transition more complicated and delaying the vote on the long-awaited plan to support the US economy.
WEATHER IN BRAZIL
90% of Brazilian coffee is grown in 4 regions: Minas Gerais, Espirito Santo, Sao Paulo and Parana.
Rainfall was below normal in October in the Brazilian coffee belt. The rains were late in coming and irreversible damage is feared for the next harvest. The rainy season has now begun. Rainfall last week ranged from 50 to 100 mm.
ICE US CERTIFIED COFFEE STOCKS
Coffee stocks are up to 1.149 million bags of 60 Kg for 1.129 last week. ICE US stocks of Arabica coffee are below the five-year average. The low stocks may provide some support to the coffee price on contracts.
The DXY index representing the Dollar against a basket of foreign currencies closed last week up to 93.882. The 2nd epidemic wave is scaring the market and the Dollar seems to be playing its role as a safe-haven currency. The chances of a quick agreement on a plan to support the U.S. economy are now nil. We will have to wait now for the election result, and this is beneficial to the Dollar in the short term.
On the FED side, things will certainly remain frozen until the outcome of the American election. The FED has insisted on the need for a quick vote of a support plan, and assures that the key rates will remain permanently low.
Last week, the Brazilian Real closed lower at 0.1726. The trend is still . The rise of the Dollar, which plays its role as a safe haven, is weighing on the Brazilian Real. The BRL /USD pair is positively correlated with coffee futures prices. A weak Real increases the competitiveness of Brazilian producers and encourages them to export.
The weekly ( ) report of the Commodity Trading Commission (CFTC) shows all the positions opened by all market participants. The report is published on Friday, and reflects the open positions on Tuesday of the same week. It shows the position of commercial traders (producers, commodity buyers, ...) but also non-commercial (speculators).
The net positions of speculators on the markets are particularly interesting to observe.
The speculative net position on the coffee futures market is down this week to 35,421 K instead of 40 ,708 K.