Short the 200 Put expiring 5/21 (60 DTE) for $1.15 Cr. It has a 95% POP and $2120 BPE for a 5% ROC. Considering that ZM is trading around $330 today, ZM will need to tank 40% to hit the breakeven for this trade. While this isn't a risk-free trade, it is a high-conviction and high-probability trade.
Zillow took a massive dump over the last few weeks falling over 45% at its most and is currently still down 40% from its highs. It also completed all 5 legs of its downwards Elliot wave and is looking to reverse. Due to the increased volatility, its options premiums are pretty high right now too leading to our 2 main trade ideas. 1. Accumulate Shares around $125...
... for a .24 debit. Notes: Taking profit with 17 days to go. Total credits collected of 10.43; out for .24 here; 10.19 ($1019) in profit, 2.93% ROC as a function of notional risk. This is along the lines of what I want to see out of this strategy on a quarterly basis: ~1% ROC at max as a function of notional risk on a monthly basis; 2-3% ROC as a function of...
... for a 1.41 credit. Notes: With 45 days to go and more than half the extrinsic in the 360 shortie pissed out, rolling up to the 381 short put to lock in the realized gain. Naturally, this isn't ideal here, with 30-day having crushed into around 17.8% with the preference being to wait for weakness and higher volatility, but I'm opting to stay mechanical here,...
... for an .08 debit here with 10 days to go. Notes: In for 3.97 (See Post Below), out for .08, 3.89 profit.
... for a 2.23 credit. Notes: My weekly 16 delta, broad market exchange-traded fund short put in the major (i.e., SPY, IWM, QQQ, DIA) having the highest 30-day implied and in the expiry nearest 45 days.
... for a 1.63 credit. Notes: With only .25 worth of extrinsic in the April 23rd 195 and 17 days to go, locking in a realized gain of about 2.55 (See Post Below) to this point here by rolling out to the May 17th expiry (38 days) instead of leaving it on, waiting for the last .25 to bleed out, and adding units while I wait for that to happen. Total credits...
... for a .15 debit. Notes: This one, I've been rolling for a bit of time (See Post Below). Total credits collected of 6.56; out here for .15; 6.41 ($641) profit.
... for a 6.20 debit. Notes: In for 10.90, out for 6.20: taking 4.70 ($470) worth of profit here with 73 days to go.
... for .17/contract. Notes: In for 1.20, out for .17/contract here; 1.03 ($103) profit per contract.
... for .07/contract. Notes: In for .43/contract; out for .07. .36 ($36)/contract profit.
... for a 1.26/contract credit. Notes: Strike improving a little bit here while collecting a credit with 10 days to go in the April contract. Total credits collected of 3.97/contract with a cost basis of 159.03.
... for .05/contract. Comments: In for 2.63, out for .05 today with 8 days to go. 2.58 ($258) profit/contract, 1.31% ROC.
Short the 25-strike put for $1.30 Credit. 75% POP and only $740 BPE for a decent 17.5% ROC. Short the 25-55 Strangle for $2.10 Credit. About a 1SD Strangle and has a similar $740 BPE for a 28% ROC.
... for a 2.77/contract credit. Notes: Part of a longer-dated strategy initially targeting the strike paying at least 1% of the strike price in credit. I haven't got anything out in October yet (199 days), so am selling there. Will roll to the 1%-paying strike at 50% max up to 45 days until expiry, after which I'll manage on approaching worthless or, if...
... for a 1.69/contract credit. Notes: Some more take profit rolling. Here, the August 20th 250 is approaching 50% max, so rolling it up to the strike paying at least 1% of the strike price, which is the 300 in the expiry (currently paying 3.01 at the mid). Realized gain of 1.30 or so ($130)/contract with total credits collected of 4.29/contract. On a more...
... for a 1.52/contract credit. Notes: With the December 17th 175 nearly at 50% max, rolling it up for a realized gain of around .90 ($90) to the strike paying around 1% of the strike price (the 240 is paying around 2.45 at the mid). Total credits collected of 1.81 (See Post Below) plus 1.52 or 3.33/contract. ROC at max now at 1.38% as a function of notional...
... for a .57/contract credit. Notes: With the April 16th 29 only having .14 of extrinsic left in it, rolling out to the June 18th 28 strike for a realized gain of .43 ($43)/contract with 30-day at 43.9% and expiry-specific at 42.2%. I would've rolled out to May, but have 29's in that expiry. I get a credit, realize a gain, and reduce buying power effect all...