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SLV

THE WEEK AHEAD: GDXJ, GDX, GLD, XLU, SLVEARNINGS FAST (41/31), PEP (19/18) and DAL (15/26) announce earnings next week, but the rank/implied metrics aren't there for me (>70 rank; >50 implied) for an earnings-related volatility contraction play. BROAD MARKET TLT (21/10) IWM (12/16) SPY (11/13) QQQ (10/17) EEM (7/17) EFA (5/10) Weak sauce. SECTOR EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS Premium selling opportunities remain in gold and the miners, with some decent background implied in the oil and gas sector and semicons: Top 5 By Rank: GDXJ (86/37), GLD (75/15), GDX (62/32), XLU (61/14), and SLV (56/19). USO (30/36), SMH (27/25), and XOP (21/31) follow thereafter ... . Pictured here, remarkably, is the exact same setup strike-wise that I posted last week in GDXJ in the August cycle -- the nearest the 20 delta 32/39 short strangle, paying 1.06 at the mid price with break evens at 30.94/40.06 and delta/theta metrics of 2.82/2.92. IRA TRADES XLU (61/14) is on my IRA shopping list with a current yield of 3.05%, but as a rate sensitive, it's ripped way higher on all this talk of cutting, cutting, cutting.* You'd think with that rank (61), it would be paying something, but the background's only at 14, so it's really no surprise that it isn't. I can either man up and sell something closer to at-the-money if I want in, and then manage the short put from there, wait for lower, sell a "Not a Penny More" at a price I'm comfortable with and then whittle away at cost basis from that point forward before taking on shares if I'm not happy with my cost basis (e.g., the Jan '20 18 delta 55),** or do something a little funkier like a 90/30 call diagonal with the long leg far out in time at a strike I'd be willing to exercise at.*** With the possibility of a no cut looming in the July cycle, I'm opting for waiting for lower. If that December "sell everything" dip is evidence of anything, it's that we'll probably have opportunities at some point going forward. * -- So have all the other rate sensitives -- IYR, XLP, TLT, HYG. ** -- I generally do that anyways as long as it's productive. *** -- I looked at a Jan '21 (no, that's not a typo) 50 long/Aug 16th 62 short call diagonal, but it's hard to price out in off hours with the setup being bid 7.78/ask 13.05. I'd be fine with the right to exercise at $50/share, but would need a Dick to sell me the setup for a price that results in a break even at or below where the underlying is currently trading to even consider that setup (i.e., not more 60.68 minus the 50 long strike or 10.68; the broker's saying the mid price for that setup is 10.42 with a resulting break even of 60.42 versus spot at 60.68). The additional benefit of that particular setup is that it's far more buying power efficient in a cash secured environment than short putting: the buying power effect of a 50 short put is the strike (50.00) minus any credit received with no right of exercise/assignment if the short put stays out of the money. It kind of begs the question of: "Why the hell don't I do that setup in the IRA more often as an acquisition strategy versus short putting?"
AMEX:GDXJ
by NaughtyPines
2
THE WEEK AHEAD: GDXJ, GLD, GDX, SLV, XLVEARNINGS No options highly liquid underlyings announcing earnings this week. BROAD MARKET EEM (35/19) QQQ (23/20) IWM (21/18) SPY (21/15) EFA (15/12) SECTOR EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS There's gold premium to be had (in them there hills ... ), particularly in the miners: Top 5 By Rank: GDXJ (86/36), GLD(86/16), GDX (63/30), SLV (62/20), XLV (60/15). Pictured here is a delta neutral GDXJ short strangle in the August expiry, paying 1.28 (.64 at 50% max), break evens at 30.72/40.28, and delta/theta metrics of -2.5/2.9. For those of a defined risk bent, the August 16th 29/32/38/41 is paying .92, with break evens at 31.08/38.92, and delta/theta metrics of 1.08/1.02. The XLV August 16th 88/97 short strangle is paying 3.10 at the mid, but the markets are so wide, I'm not sure how that'll price out in the New York session. Moreover, the background implied is about that of the broad market (15 versus SPY 15), so I'm unsure of whether that's worth pulling the trigger on even if markets tighten up, even though implied's in the top half of its 52-week range. IRA TRADES This has been a tough market if you're looking to acquire either broad market (e.g., SPY), bonds (e.g., EMB, HYG, JNK, TLT), or other divvy generating underlyings (e.g., IYR, XLU), with your basic options being to (a) wait for lower; (b) sell "not a penny more" puts and get paid to wait; or (c) throw some caution to the wind, take some risk, and sell closer to at-the-money and manage those trades reactively (i.e., rolling out for credit, duration, and cost basis reduction). I've opted for a few "not a penny mores," although the return on those isn't all that compelling even though it beats the basically 0% you get for staying in cash. (See, e.g., the HYG, SPY "Not a Penny More" Trades, below). Given my particular proximity to retirement, I'm not all that keen on acquiring a bunch of stuff at near all-time-highs, so I'm pickier and probably way more risk adverse than most, so naturally the "Not a Penny Mores" will not be for everyone since you're tying up quite a substantial piece of cash secured buying power to generate fairly mundane returns.* But just because I've kind of thrown in the towel over acquiring stuff in the short to medium term doesn't mean I'm not managing what's already there. Inevitably, there's always a covered call that may need to be looked at and/or a hedge that might be sensible to erect to cut covered call net long delta that is inevitably there. (See, e.g., Overwriting Post, below). * -- Although it's apparent that you can collect sufficient premium to emulate or exceed the dividend returns on some of these underlyings without actually being in the stock itself. It kind of begs the question: "Why be in stock at all?"
AMEX:GDXJ
by NaughtyPines
1
SLV LongSilver has broken out of a multiyear descending triangle pattern to the upside. Typically a descending triangle is a bearish pattern so for it to be foiled and having gone to the upside is extra bullish. Moreover, silver entered a bullish falling wedge pattern right after, back-tested the initial triangle's resistance-turned-support and continued upwards. There is likely going to be some consolidation/corrected in the very short term but as far as long term is concerned, silver has only up to go. Silver is also trading at roughly 93:1 compared to gold. This ratio has been proven to be a bottoming signal for silver before in the 90s before it corrects to a ratio of roughly 40:1.
AMEX:SLVLong
by BigMouse777
1
THE WEEK AHEAD: GLD, GDXJ, GDX, SLV, USOEARNINGS No options highly liquid underlyings announcing earnings this week. BROAD MARKET EEM (15/18) QQQ (19/19) IWM (19/18) SPY (19/15) EFA (10/12) One word ... . Well, maybe two: "Weak sauce," with ranks in the low quarter of their 52-week ranges and background implied at sub-20 across the board. SECTOR EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS Top 5 By Rank: GLD (92/16), GDXJ (71/33), SLV (64/21), GDX (48/28), USO (47/43) TBT (52/24). Pictured here is a GLD Synthetic Reverse Jade Lizard, explained in the post, below. For those of a more nondirectional bent, the Aug 16th 127/140 short strangle is paying 1.72 with a 70% probability of profit, although I'd recheck that setup at New York open for delta balance ... . GDXJ: August 16th 34 short straddle, 3.45 credit with >expected move break evens, delta/theta -11.03/3.02. GDX: August 16th 25 short straddle, 2.12 credit with >expected move break evens, but a little on the weak side in terms of credit collection. Delta/theta: -10.52/1.84. SLV/USO: August has yet to populate ... . In petro, my go-to is generally XOP (34/35), but the August expiry has yet to populate. Given the size of the underlying, I would probably continue to short straddle it here, assuming that it's still paying greater than 10% of the price of the underlying (i.e., >2.70 or so in credit for the short straddle nearest at-the-money).
AMEX:GLD
by NaughtyPines
SLV - Silver double bottom and the falling wedgeIs anybody into precious metals? I am. I have been for years. I just put on some SLV today. The double bottom on the weekly and the falling wedge looks like it's time to go long. Normally I may not even bother because it has been such a slow mover for quite some time but as the stock markets continue to deteriorate and crypto continues to climb I think it is time to take shelter. I have zero in the stock market and have only taken defensive positions with SPXS, SLV, Bitcoin, Cash, etc. When the fecal matter hits the rotary device next month and beyond I don't want to be standing in front of that fan. Good luck everybody!
AMEX:SLVLong
by BitcoinBearSlayer
Silver - Running out of SteamLooking at the daily chart for Silver, we can see a solid push from the $13.11 range in November to over $15 in February. However, since hitting strong overhead resistance this run appears to be losing steam. The ADX which measures the strength of the trend appears to have double topped. The MACD is showing bearish divergence as well. There is still a chance for the price to rebound off support and retest the purple trend, but I am biased to the downside for now.
AMEX:SLV
by jpbrown1023