THE WEEK AHEAD: IBM, JNJ, NFLX EARNINGS; GDXJ, GLD, SLV, GDX
EARNINGS
IBM (54/26; Thursday), JNJ (56/23; Tuesday before market open), and NFLX (35/41; Wednesday after market close) announce earnings next week. Unfortunately, all of them have less than ideal metrics for a volatility contraction play (>70% rank/>50% implied), so I'm likely to pass on all of them. That being said:
Pictured here is an IBM 130/135/150/155 iron condor in the August cycle paying 1.53, break evens at 133.47/151.53, and delta/theta metrics of -2.47/2.80. The rank/implied metrics aren't ideal here (<70%/<50%), which is probably why it's also paying less than my idea one-third the width of the wings in credit. I would pass on it if you can't get filled for 1.67 or greater ... .
BROAD MARKET
TLT (31/11)
QQQ (8/17)
IWM (7/15)
SPY (6/12)
EEM (3/16)
EFA (5/10)
Short-term, broad market premium selling is about as crappy as it can get here. Your options are to (a) wait for a pop in volatility; or (b) sell something farther out in time where the expiry implied is higher. I will probably opt for the latter if we don't get an uptick in volatility by July opex, since waiting can be unproductive, particularly if low volatility has infected the entire market and it becomes a "protracted thing."
SECTOR EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS
Premium selling opportunities are in gold and the miners for yet another week ... .
Top 5 By Rank: GDXJ (73/34), GLD (72/15), SLV (70/20), GDX (45/28), and TLT (31/11). Metrically, the most "ideal" play is in GDXJ (exchange-traded fund ideals: >50% rank/>35% background), although we're getting somewhat short in duration for another play in the August cycle. There isn't a September expiry available yet (there will probably be one after July expires), so it might be worth a look at GDXJ next week should volatility hang in there for a September play.
IRA TRADES
Not doing a ton here beyond managing my covered calls post-opex. Stuff on my shopping list (XLU, XLP, HYG) has all ground higher along with the rest of the market, so I just have to patient for another one of those December style "sell everything" dips or a major uptick in volatility in those instruments.* Although I have "not a penny more" short puts on in HYG, both XLP and XLU are out of range of that kind of play, it seems, unless I want to go far out in time and get paid very little ... .
* -- XLU (10/14), XLP (29/11), HYG (13/6).
IBM (54/26; Thursday), JNJ (56/23; Tuesday before market open), and NFLX (35/41; Wednesday after market close) announce earnings next week. Unfortunately, all of them have less than ideal metrics for a volatility contraction play (>70% rank/>50% implied), so I'm likely to pass on all of them. That being said:
Pictured here is an IBM 130/135/150/155 iron condor in the August cycle paying 1.53, break evens at 133.47/151.53, and delta/theta metrics of -2.47/2.80. The rank/implied metrics aren't ideal here (<70%/<50%), which is probably why it's also paying less than my idea one-third the width of the wings in credit. I would pass on it if you can't get filled for 1.67 or greater ... .
BROAD MARKET
TLT (31/11)
QQQ (8/17)
IWM (7/15)
SPY (6/12)
EEM (3/16)
EFA (5/10)
Short-term, broad market premium selling is about as crappy as it can get here. Your options are to (a) wait for a pop in volatility; or (b) sell something farther out in time where the expiry implied is higher. I will probably opt for the latter if we don't get an uptick in volatility by July opex, since waiting can be unproductive, particularly if low volatility has infected the entire market and it becomes a "protracted thing."
SECTOR EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS
Premium selling opportunities are in gold and the miners for yet another week ... .
Top 5 By Rank: GDXJ (73/34), GLD (72/15), SLV (70/20), GDX (45/28), and TLT (31/11). Metrically, the most "ideal" play is in GDXJ (exchange-traded fund ideals: >50% rank/>35% background), although we're getting somewhat short in duration for another play in the August cycle. There isn't a September expiry available yet (there will probably be one after July expires), so it might be worth a look at GDXJ next week should volatility hang in there for a September play.
IRA TRADES
Not doing a ton here beyond managing my covered calls post-opex. Stuff on my shopping list (XLU, XLP, HYG) has all ground higher along with the rest of the market, so I just have to patient for another one of those December style "sell everything" dips or a major uptick in volatility in those instruments.* Although I have "not a penny more" short puts on in HYG, both XLP and XLU are out of range of that kind of play, it seems, unless I want to go far out in time and get paid very little ... .
* -- XLU (10/14), XLP (29/11), HYG (13/6).