Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
Introduction - This is closure for binary forecasting for the people who follow it. Consider this draft as clarification for these two months as it relates to the standing long term forecast in Rumors of a Pivot, Part 3: Details - These are two most likely routes to June FOMC. In theory, whatever ultimately happens should be simple variations of these two...
Introduction - Bulls are setting up for a double bottom with a "V" reversal. This means the median will hold. This means 2500-ish on or before 05/23. This does not mean a straight line there though, because medium term 2-way vol is set to stay high all the way to June. Details - See previous drafts for how we got here. Warning - If you are new to this...
Spot Gold has fallen 5% since the Middle East conflicts have lessened at least transiently. Other fundamentals like the Chinese government and indeed its citizens as well as the central banks of several nations buying gold in high volumes support price from significantly falling from here. Supported by volume profile specifics as well as the Fibonacci...
Introduction - So since the move to 2311-2314, I have to "play it by ear" because price is moving faster than my ability to map "an intermediate thesis" that is in sync with price action from here to August. In order to stay relevant and ahead of price action, let's talk less and do better. Details - Continuing from DRAFT 9-3, price chose yellow route to 2291...
It doesn't matter what short term paper contracts do, or taking profits - the East is importing gold and silver at a beguiling rate that won't allow for much shenanigans for the metals market. I was however surprised to see the price bounce exactly off the top of the box. I see silver going down to $24 area, shake out some hands, and rocket up past $30 after...
Introduction - As anticipated overnight, bulls didn't put enough fight in at 2365 and ferocious bears took out the 43-year trend line. While it's not even obvious they are finished yet - because Binary Forecasting Service's trend engine still see 2323-27 as possible Monday targets before rebounding - I have strong conviction that gold is getting ready to nowhere...
Introduction - Bulls are holding 43-year trend line at 2360s while NASDAQ bears formed a soft ceiling at 2400 that should hold past through May 1st FOMC. The result has gold range bound, predominantly between 2367-2392 for the incoming nine trading days, after which gold should head for 2444 and higher. Details - Follow up to 9-1 DRAFT's failure to break out...
Don't think #GOLD is done by any means. HOWEVER....... Sold some positions around the date of bearish engulfing. As of today the precious metal is still @ that price level. We missed a lil more upside but it wasn't much oi the whole scheme of things. #SILVER shows same exact signs except the Bearish Engulfing. AMEX:GLD AMEX:SLV
Miners didn't accelerate to the upside like metals because they do better in lower interest rate environments, whereas metals do better for volatility events. You could buy ITM puts here on JNUG, NUGT, GDX or GDXJ and see a good return, or just wait for this to bottom in a couple of weeks and ride the lightning. THIS opportunity is one of the 2 that I see this...
Traders, It looks as if the dollar, vix, and precious metals/commodities will continue to trend up, stocks will continue to pull back. Bitcoin is tenuous. But it is possible that altcoins have reached their low, though that low may be retested soon. We'll discuss these subjects in this weekly update. Stew
Introduction - London, of all places, vigorously defended 2373 and destroyed scheming bears' setup for 2285 this morning. Is this a sign that miracles do happen? No, it simply means 2444 is next. This also means a slow side-ways-to-up to 25xx in mid-May before MAJOR CORRECTION ahead of 6/12 FOMC. As always, we trade one day at a time and will cross that bridge...
Introduction - Didn't your mother ever tell you not to play with your food? Bulls with upper hand near 2400s once again trapped by hubris. Believing themselves invincible post Powell speech allowing bears to hang around with the door to 2275 still wide open. Will they regret this indecisive decision? Only time and Binary Forecasting Service's trend engine will...
Intro - Don't have any time this morning, so to sum it dungo jinxed London sessio now we have to do 2460 the hard way. Details - Ditto. Obviously 2460 right? Is that still obvious? Will add if time.
Always good to measure against the DXY not just the USD value Not perfect of course as it is mainly the Euro and Yen but still insightful. Been watching the relationship for a while currently breaking out to the upside HVF theory means this should be a violent expansion Target 1 coming up.
Intro - This should be the next step on our way to 4800. 5500 is now unlikely considering what Friday's top means going forward. Details - Will break it down as we go. But be aware, I am not going to as helpful as I usually am.
Introduction - This is continuation of a series that intends to deliver you 5500 in November 2025. I did say I would not make another public post because of what I felt was bad policy. That should not, however, punish the entire field of TradingView users from the benefits of the incoming rally to 2450, 2500, and ultimately 2675+ before 05/01 FOMC. From Here On...
🚨 🚨 🚨 #Gold is forming a Bearish Engulfing on the daily charts. Volume is almost there for a confirmation of the pattern. Money Flow is low. Overbought. Weekly we see Gold forming a doji = battle bulls & bears. #Silver is at a major resistance. This should be an interesting week... AMEX:GLD AMEX:GDX AMEX:GDXJ AMEX:SLV
China's central bank, the People's Bank of China (PBOC), is on a gold-buying binge. For the 17th consecutive month, the PBOC has added to its gold reserves, further propelling the precious metal to record highs. This relentless buying coincides with a surge in gold prices over the past two months. The rally is fueled by speculation that the US Federal Reserve...