HEADER - Bears running out of time to make something happen. This is worth an update.
SUMMARY - This is continuation from DRAFT 2.
DETAILS - See previous drafts for background.
NOTES - Will add with time.
HEADER - This draft readjusts for the "AVERAGE OF EVERYTHING DRAFT 5-5" route playing out until now.
SUMMARY - My data says DRAFT 5-5 is dead as of right now (2:03 PM ET 3/28). This draft takes over from here on out.
CALENDAR - Vertical lines with labels are important dates in this window to be aware of.
STRATEGY - Has not changed. Entry long end of day on...
My newborn needs his diaper changed, so I can't elaborate at the moment =]
But, I want to make it a point to say that my position on gold is very short this year. It's one of my most confident predictions.
HEADER - I have legitimate conviction the path will be close to this to 4-20.
SUMMARY - I have searched seven years for this moment. Has my moment come? I believe it has.
STRATEGY - Long entry will be Thursday/Friday April 6/7. Exit will be April 17-18-19 window. I recommend futures options (23-hours a day, five days a week).
CALENDAR - Vertical lines...
I have been cautioning on social media that gold has been, and still remains, one of the least effective inflation hedges available.
Before considering investing in gold, we should wait for it to surpass its previous all-time high from 2011 and sustain that level.
It seems illogical for any investor to choose gold, which offers no yield, dividends, or earnings,...
On the 15-minute chart with a volume profile overlaid, XAUUSD broke down from
a head and shoulders pattern and trended down into a double bottom.
Stop Loss and 2 targets are labeled on the char along with supply and demand zones.
I see this as a long swing to take on the forex market with using some leverage
in conjunction with risk management in the...
HEADER - The averages from 4-min bars say this move first.
SUMMARY - This MAY happen before spiking. I'm not sure if it's favored.
DETAILS - See previous drafts for background.
HEADER - So this is almost the same as DRAFT 5-4 with some important details.
SUMMARY - This is all the work that went into DRAFTS 3, 4, 5-1, -2, -3, and -4 including all of NOTES in each DRAFT. You can see them individually for background in links below. This is what price action should look like through 04/20/23. I have demonstrated how it is derived each...
HEADER - Price action since 1980 overnight says this route is 2:1 vs DRAFT 5-5
SUMMARY - As noted in notes in DRAFT 5, when facts change, facts change.
DETAILS - This is best I can do with so little time.
NOTES 1 - I am really tight on time right now...
a) I don't expect to have time to do a complete 6-1 to 6-5 series like DRAFT 5
b) so take this one with some salt.
Silver's price action has been curious, as it started to drop suddenly right at the beginning of February. Lost 5% in a day, in fact.
Gold took a little bit longer to move, and notably dumped on a much smaller magnitude.
I have an open call from mid-January that gold is likely to correct, and it appears to be coming to fruition:
Gold GC1 - Discard Greed,...
HEADER - This is what I got after adjusting for 11-min and 22-min bars, BUT BEFORE CROSS EXAMINATION WITH TWO MORE SETTINGS.
SUMMARY - This is basically 5-2 zoomed in to THE NEXT 30 DAYS ONLY.
DETAILS - See previous drafts for background.
NOTES 1 - It's hard to make these boxes more accurate than this.
a) It basically requires updating ONCE A DAY FOR ALL SETS...
Pretty cool how gold goes through the tech bubble crash followed by a spot ETF shortly after.
bitcoin went through the crypto bubble crash following the same macro falling wedge pattern, if history repeats this move is going to catch majority of bears and bulls off guard here like what happen with gold.
could be something to consider what if this time the...
HEADER - This is just tighter chart posted at the end of DRAFT 5-1. We will continue from here.
SUMMARY - While I haven't demonstrated the "cross-examination" I spoke up of in notes for DRAFT 5-1, I have completed enough of it on my own time to post this set of boxes running to end of April.
DETAILS - See previous drafts for background.
NOTES 1 - CONTINUING...
Good news for goldbugs: GC Gold futures is projected to take out $2,000.
Bad news for goldbugs: I still believe that both price action and fundamentals are short/medium-term bearish on gold and that this swing will amount to an exit pump before lower prices forecast in the below post are achieved.
Gold GC1 - Discard Greed, Enjoy the Tranquility of Rationality
...
HEADER - This is an incomplete draft of PART 5, hence I labeled 5-1.
SUMMARY - The blue and red boxes are color coded for separate ratios of curves. I need to repeat this 2 more times, then I will re-average for finished draft.
DETAILS - We closed Friday at 1988. This changes things a little but not necessarily what you'd expect. First, the retrace floor...
There has been an almost nirvana backdrop for gold appreciation through March, and the improved investment case has offered tailwinds which have seen spot gold trade into $2009.
Gold longs would be disappointed the $2000 failed to hold though and subsequently, we see indecision on the daily chart, denoted by the pronounced ‘doji’ candle – this short-term...
My earlier Feb 2023 flash report focused on a downside Change of Behaviour/Character in the uptrend of the Gold price from the Sept '22 low. At that time, there was a possibility that the uptrend ended.
I then expected the price to re-test the Feb high. If that re-test of the high failed, I would have been confident to conclude that the uptrend was done. The...
