I think it will pop higher. If it pops lower, then look to buy at the 2019 trend, which is also the D100ma.
The usual summer consolidation may end early this year (See DXY). This means that the bottom is already in. The next leg up has already started. However, the usual winter impulse move higher should still happen in late Nov or Dec.
Got a bunch of potentially worthwhile, earnings announcement volatility contraction plays on tap this coming week. Here there are, ordered by "bang for your buck":
AAL (29/99/19.7%), announcing Thursday before market open: Due to its size, I would probably go short straddle or iron fly, with the November 20th 12 short straddle paying 2.46 (19.7% as a...
Gold looks like it's about to make a new leg higher but will it also drop 5-7% first? The dollar and gold tend to create very distinctive price cycles if you know how to look for them. Renko helps to see these price cycles and time seems irrelevant to them. I am seeing a cycle low in the works now but I'm not sure if it's complete yet. I will venture to say...
I am wildly bullish on the miners and precious metals over the longer term but I suspect another corrective leg down. GDX has been forming a giant ascending wedge from 2013-2020 and just broke out of that pattern this year. The drop in March was just a small piece of that puzzle that flushed a lot of new & experienced traders out of the trade. I pointed out...
Thanks for viewing,
This won't be a long one. It won't be full of analysis. My case is just this:
These small speculative, under-capitalised, marginally profitable gold miners are now extracting a commodity that has surpassed 2011 highs - and looks assured of heading much higher. So, it seems safe to conclude that these exploration and mining companies look set...
I would like to share my thought about our current stage, as things seems to go wrong.
1) So far, the long term view has not been damaged. That means, I still see a new up leg. The base, that means the consolidation, has taken more that I thought. So It went out of the two parallel lines of the channel. So as it is said: the larger the base, the larger the...
I was bearish, waiting for a correction that didn't come. GDXJ made new highs last friday, and they can move higher to the 63 - 65 range, at least (no resistance)
This is just another idea, one possible path for Gold that could bring gold to 1950 at the end of August (four weeks away), touching the upper line of the trending channel.
I don´t think we´ll need that...
HERE WE GO:
First, replay update #4 so we are on the same page:
So we didn't take the direct move up, but we are still going up in a very dragged out manner. Please understand that it won't be a straight gradual line. Update #4, was a rough guesstimate of...
A new leg is on the march....
Based on the same Main Channel from the previous one, this one could last until the end of October.
If took more time to start...but that is nobody can foresee
So now, it is too early, and it's just a game, just a draft based on past performance (the last leg).
So past pattern is The Best to use as guide, because it´s more probable...
Gold is zooming.
As we can see on the monthly DXY chart, the developing pattern parallels history.
1. It bounced off the 200 EMA
2. It broke trend, retested, and failed
3. It collapsed
The RSI and MACD are weak
What happened to Gold last time DXY collapsed?
CCL (28/88/25.9%) and DAL (18/77/22.1%)* announce earnings on Thursday.
The DAL November 20th 21 delta, 2 x expected move 26/41 short strangle is paying 2.41 or 7.6% as a function of stock price (1.20 at 50% max; 3.8% as a function of stock price). I've pictured a short put here as the simplest play to get in on a sector that has been hammered by the...
EARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENT VOLATILITY CONTRACTION PLAYS:
MU (27/57/10.8%)*, announces Tuesday after market close.
BBBY (32/105/20.2%), announcement Thursday before market open.
Pictured here is an MU October 16th 44/55 short strangle, paying 1.52 as of Friday's close (.76 at 50% max).
For those of a defined risk bent: the MU October 16th 40/45/52.5/57.5 iron condor...