S&P500 is close to a strong zone of resistance 3130 - 3160.
I will be looking for a reversal formation inside this zone to short the market
expecting the retracement to the support of a rising channel.
*don't trade aggressively and act only after the confirmation.
spy is trading within a strong zone of supply.
I will short the market only after a bearish breakout of a minor rising channel.
It will be a "compulsory" confirmation on so strong bullish market.
target levels have been adjusted:
T1 - 3050
T2 - 3000
stop will be strictly above the highest point of the channel.
Bulls Not to Celebrate, Yet!
While yesterday's daily close of 3112.76 was above our models' reference level of 3110, the price action was not strong enough and the models have rejected it as any indication of the bulls' strength. This leaves our models in an indeterminate mode where neither the bulls nor the bears have any advantage.
Structurally, the bullish...
The SPX was due for a pullback, we had anticipated the move lower before a pop would be more extended than it was and it was driven on trade news. We did, however, curl back into the wedge that was broken and use it as support before slightly rallying throughout the past few sessions. It did not seem like the downside was over after Monday, considering we saw an...
This Run-away Bull May Not Stop As Long As...
This run-away bull market may not stop or even slowdown as long as everyone and their grandma is predicting it. Individual investors' sentiment is less bullish and more bearish than historic average, and it should be a cause for concern for bears, as the markets typically tend to go against the retail investor...
Unfortunately, it is a trade opportunity that we see a little late.
It could be safer if we saw it after the closing.
I still want to be in the game.
I've added a short-term idea below as an extension.
But with the following parameters:
RISK/REWARD RATIO : 1/3
POSITION SIZE : %1
STOPLOSS : 3105.3
GOAL : 3155.5 - 3155.8
Back to Focus On the Economy, Even if For a Day?
Last two days of price action has confirmed the lifting-off of the pressure on bulls, albeit not confirming any strength for them. The bears are back under pressure, for now - barring any concerns from the Non-Farm Payrolls to be released at 8:30am EST today. For now, our models continue to be in an indeterminate...
Market Bear Exhausted, Yet?
If you are looking for a reason for the markets to keep going up and can not find it, and hence went short the market, you probably are discovering that there needs to be no rational explanation (at least one you can reason) for markets to do what they do - most of the "explanations" of market action are in hind-sight!
While we have...
Strategically the support resistance levels in S&P 500, the channel entered the index,
and here we can observe the distributional sell signal from last week for this week (current bar).
Do not forget to read the notes in the presentation.
In summary, this week has been affected by distributional sales and I think it will continue until the closing.
We have been...
China, Powell, and Impeachment Hearings...
The headlines involving the China trade war, Fed speak, and the impeachment hearings (is any investor really worried about them, yet?)...a lot of headline noise with no real substance confining the markets within a rather directionless, choppy range. A big directional move seem to be around, and when it comes it could...
Yesterday market after making new ATH sold off .
During overnight session market rallied and currently testing Open from yesterdays RTH.
If market can take out yesterdays Open convincingly, we might see a rally.
Last week we had 3 consecutive days when market made ATH.
If that pattern continues, today would be 2nd day of ATH, time will tell if that happens...
3130 - 3160 is a decent resistance area.
I will be looking for a short trade from this area.
The price might retrace to a recently broken structure level 3030
and continue falling bit lower to 2980 before further bullish continuation.
!Trade only with confirmation!
Shorts Not to Jump the Gun!
The potential manipulation and/or market timing of the rhetoric on China trade war by people with "connections" aside, the market reaction yesterday did NOT confirm the bearish levels our models were looking for. While the session low of 3069.5 came within 1.5 points away from our 3068 level, it was neither breached nor was the daily...
"I Prefer to Wait...But They Want to Make a Deal Now"
Investors seem to be getting sick and tired of the blatant lies right to the face of the whole nation that our leader is trying to perpetrate on us and the early morning futures action shows it! It is alright if we can not make a deal, but it is an affront to take the whole nation for stupids and keep spinning...
December to Repeat the Record-setting November Markets?
This run-away bull market may not stop or even slowdown as long as everyone and their grandma is predicting it. Individual investors' sentiment is less bullish and more bearish than historic average, and it should be a cause for concern for bears, as the markets typically tend to go against the retail...
Today's Shortened Holiday Trading the Last Hurrah at Successive Record Highs?
This run-away bull market may not stop or even slowdown as long as everyone and their grandma is predicting it. Individual investors' sentiment is less bullish and more bearish than historic average, and it should be a cause for concern for bears, as the markets typically tend to go...
Results of our models' trading plans, published in the morning, are now available. Anyone can verify/cross-check the triggering of these trades from any source that provides charts and comparing the trades against the trading levels published in the morning. This is an experiment in real time, walk-forward testing in the open for anyone to be able to...
Baffled by the Melt-up In the Markets?
If you are short and baffled/pained by the markets' melt-up, you might want to stop trying to find a rational explanation (at least one you can reason) for markets to continue to go up - and stop interpreting not finding any reason as a signal to go short!
Our models indicate caution if taking short positions while above...