S&P500: Short-Term Pullback Before Next RallyS&P futures initially slipped yesterday but managed to stabilize soon. Our primary outlook is that the ongoing turquoise wave B will continue to move higher, likely topping out just below resistance at 6,675 points. After that, we expect wave C to drive the index directly into the magenta long Target Zone between 6,082 and 5,650 points, where the low of the wave (4) correction should be established. From there, the impulsive wave (5) is expected to begin, pushing the index above the 6,675 points resistance and completing the broader blue wave (III). Alternatively, there is a 35% chance that the index could break out directly above 6,675 points without first reaching the magenta Target Zone. In this scenario, the index would already be forming the alternative wave alt.(5) in magenta.
Sp500index
S&P 500 (ES1!): Short Term Sells For Longer Term Buys TargetsWelcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Sept 1 - 5th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: S&P 500 (ES1!)
The S&P500 has been strong, but gave a bearish close on Friday. Looking at the Daily, it is easy to see price is retracing lower, perhaps to the +FVG, which is a great place to look for longs once contacted.
Short term sells are permissible, but be mindful the HTFs are bullish.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
S&P 500 Technical Analysis: Weekly Forecast# S&P 500 (US500) Technical Analysis: Advanced Multi-Timeframe Trading Strategy & Weekly Forecast
Current Price: 6,464.4 (As of August 30, 2025, 12:54 AM UTC+4)
Asset Class: US500 / S&P 500 Index
Analysis Date: August 30, 2025
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Executive Summary
The S&P 500 continues to demonstrate strong bullish momentum, currently trading near all-time highs at 6,464.4. Our comprehensive technical analysis utilizing Japanese Candlestick patterns, Harmonic analysis, Elliott Wave Theory, Wyckoff methodology, W.D. Gann principles, and Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicates a cautiously optimistic outlook with key resistance levels approaching. The index has successfully achieved conservative targets around 6,474-6,504 level, with the next major target zone near 7,000.
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Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis
Elliott Wave Analysis
The S&P 500 appears to be in the final stages of a major impulse wave (Wave 5) within a larger degree cycle. The wave structure suggests:
Primary Count: Currently in Wave 5 of (5) of
Target Zone: 6,800-7,000 for wave completion
Invalidation Level: Break below 6,147 (July low)
Wyckoff Market Structure
The current phase aligns with Wyckoff's Distribution Phase characteristics:
Phase: Late Markup Phase transitioning to potential Distribution
Volume Analysis: Decreasing volume on recent highs suggests weakening demand
Price Action: Narrowing trading ranges indicating potential climax conditions
W.D. Gann Analysis
Applying Gann's comprehensive methodology:
Square of 9 Analysis:
- Current price 6,464.4 sits at a significant Gann square level
- Next major resistance: 6,724 (45-degree angle projection)
- Time cycles suggest potential reversal window: September 15-20, 2025
Angle Analysis:
- 1x1 angle support from July low: 6,200-6,250
- 2x1 angle resistance: 6,700-6,750
Price & Time Harmonics:
- 90-day cycle completion due mid-September
- Price squares suggest natural resistance at 6,561 and 6,724
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Japanese Candlestick & Harmonic Patterns
Recent Candlestick Formations (Daily Chart)
Spinning Top: August 28-29 showing indecision at highs
Long Upper Shadows: Indicating selling pressure at resistance levels
Volume Confirmation: Bearish divergence with declining volume
Harmonic Pattern Recognition
Potential Bat Pattern: Completion zone 6,480-6,520
ABCD Pattern: Active completion at current levels
Fibonacci Confluence: 1.618 extension target at 6,756
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Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Analysis
Current Cloud Structure
Price Position: Above Kumo (bullish)
Tenkan-sen: 6,431 (short-term trend)
Kijun-sen: 6,378 (medium-term trend)
Senkou Span A: 6,405
Senkou Span B: 6,341
Chikou Span: Positioned above price action (confirming bullish sentiment)
Future Kumo: Thinning cloud ahead suggests potential volatility increase
---
Key Technical Indicators Analysis
RSI (Relative Strength Index)
Daily RSI: 68.7 (approaching overbought territory)
Weekly RSI: 71.2 (overbought but not extreme)
4H RSI: 72.1 (overbought with bearish divergence forming)
Bollinger Bands Analysis
Position: Price trading at upper band
Bandwidth: Contracting, suggesting low volatility environment
Squeeze: Potential breakout setup forming
VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price)
Daily VWAP: 6,442
Weekly VWAP: 6,398
Volume Profile: Low volume acceptance above 6,450
Moving Average Structure
20 EMA: 6,419 (immediate support)
50 SMA: 6,371 (key support level)
200 SMA: 6,198 (major trend support)
Golden Cross: 50/200 cross remains intact (bullish)
---
Support & Resistance Levels
Primary Resistance Levels
1. R1: 6,480 (immediate resistance - Harmonic completion)
2. R2: 6,520 (psychological level)
3. R3: 6,561 (Gann square resistance)
4. R4: 6,724 (Major Gann angle resistance)
5. R5: 6,800-7,000 (Elliott Wave target zone)
Primary Support Levels
1. S1: 6,431 (Tenkan-sen support)
2. S2: 6,378 (Kijun-sen support)
3. S3: 6,300-6,150 (Monthly pullback zone)
4. S4: 6,200-6,250 (1x1 Gann angle)
5. S5: 6,147 (July low - critical support)
---
Multi-Timeframe Strategy Framework
Scalping Strategy (5M & 15M Charts)
5-Minute Timeframe:
Entry Signals: Look for pullbacks to 20 EMA with RSI oversold (<30)
Profit Targets: 15-25 points per trade
Stop Loss: 10-15 points below entry
Volume Confirmation: Above average volume on breakouts
15-Minute Timeframe:
Range Trading: 6,440-6,480 current range
Breakout Strategy: Volume spike above 6,480 for continuation
Mean Reversion: Fade moves beyond 2 standard deviations from VWAP
Intraday Strategy (30M, 1H, 4H Charts)
30-Minute Strategy:
Trend Following: Long above 20/50 EMA confluence
Target: 6,520 initial, 6,561 extended
Risk Management: 2:1 reward-to-risk minimum
1-Hour Strategy:
Pattern Recognition: Monitor for bull flag formations
Volume Analysis: Require volume expansion on breakouts
Time-Based Exits: Avoid holding through 3:30 PM ET volatility
4-Hour Strategy:
Swing Setup: Long on pullbacks to Ichimoku cloud support
Momentum Confirmation: Wait for RSI to reset below 50
Position Sizing: Adjust for overnight gap risk
Swing Trading Strategy (Daily, Weekly, Monthly)
Daily Chart Strategy:
Trend Continuation: Long on breaks above 6,480 with volume
Pullback Entries: 6,378-6,300 zone for swing longs
Profit Targets: 6,724 (primary), 6,800-7,000 (extended)
Weekly Chart Strategy:
Long-Term Trend: Remains intact above 6,200
Position Management: Scale out at resistance levels
Risk Assessment: Monitor weekly RSI for extreme readings
---
Daily Trading Plan: September 2-6, 2025
Monday, September 2, 2025 (Labor Day - Markets Closed)
Pre-Market Preparation:
- Monitor overnight futures for gap scenarios
- Review weekend news for market-moving events
- Prepare watchlists for Tuesday's session
Tuesday, September 3, 2025
Market Outlook: Post-holiday session with potential low volume
Key Levels:
Resistance: 6,480, 6,520
Support: 6,431, 6,378
Strategy:
Morning: Range-bound trading likely; fade extremes
Afternoon: Watch for institutional flows post-holiday
Entry Zones: Long 6,430-6,440 area, Short above 6,480
Wednesday, September 4, 2025
Market Outlook: Mid-week momentum session
Key Events: Monitor for any Federal Reserve communications
Strategy:
Breakout Play: Above 6,480 targets 6,520-6,561
Volume Confirmation: Required for sustained moves
Risk Management: Tight stops in low-volume environment
Thursday, September 5, 2025
Market Outlook: Potential volatility increase ahead of Friday
Key Levels:
Critical Resistance: 6,520-6,561 zone
Support: 6,400-6,378 (buy zone)
Strategy:
Trend Following: Momentum plays above key resistance
Counter-Trend: Fade moves on declining volume
Friday, September 6, 2025
Market Outlook: Weekly close positioning and potential NFP impact
Strategy:
Early Session: Position for weekly close
Late Session: Prepare for weekend risk management
Options Expiry: Monitor for pinning effects at key strikes
---
Geopolitical & Macroeconomic Considerations
Federal Reserve Policy Impact
President Donald Trump has called on the Fed to cut rates by 3 percentage points, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noting that "any model" would put the benchmark federal funds rate at least 1.5 percentage points lower than its current level of between 4.25 percent and 4.50 percent. This political pressure on the Fed could create market volatility as investors weigh the likelihood of aggressive rate cuts.
Key Risks to Monitor
1. Federal Reserve Policy Divergence: Potential conflicts between Fed independence and political pressure
2. Geopolitical Tensions: Geopolitical fragmentation is being fueled by COVID-19, the war in Ukraine, U.S.-China relations and more
3. Economic Data: Any significant deviation from expected economic indicators
4. Market Structure: Elevated valuations increase sensitivity to negative catalysts
Earnings Season Considerations
- Q3 earnings season approaching in mid-October
- Current valuations require strong earnings growth for justification
- Sector rotation potential based on earnings guidance
---
Risk Management Framework
Position Sizing Guidelines
Scalping: 0.5-1% risk per trade
Intraday: 1-2% risk per trade
Swing Trading: 2-3% risk per position
Maximum Portfolio Risk: 6-8% total exposure
Stop-Loss Protocols
Scalping: 10-15 points maximum
Intraday: 25-40 points based on volatility
Swing: Below key support levels (6,300 for current longs)
Profit-Taking Strategy
Scale Out Approach: Take 50% at first target, 25% at second target
Trailing Stops: Implement once position moves 2:1 favorable
Time-Based Exits: Close positions before major news events
---
Weekly Outlook Summary
Bullish Scenarios (Probability: 60%)
- Break above 6,480 with volume expansion
- Federal Reserve maintains dovish stance
- Strong technical momentum continues
Targets: 6,520, 6,561, 6,724
Bearish Scenarios (Probability: 40%)
- Failure at resistance with volume decline
- Geopolitical shock or Fed hawkish surprise
- Technical breakdown below 6,378
Targets: 6,300, 6,200, 6,147
Base Case Expectation:
Continued range-bound trading with upward bias, eventual breakout to 6,520-6,561 zone before more significant pullback to test 6,300-6,200 support area.
---
For individuals seeking to enhance their trading abilities based on the analyses provided, I recommend exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade. (Website: shunya dot trade)
I would appreciate your feedback on this analysis, as it will serve as a valuable resource for future endeavors.
Sincerely,
Shunya.Trade
Website: shunya dot trade
Disclaimer: This post is intended solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed herein are derived from technical analysis and are shared for informational purposes only. The stock market inherently carries risks, including the potential for capital loss. Therefore, readers are strongly advised to exercise prudent judgment before making any investment decisions. We assume no liability for any actions taken based on this content. For personalized guidance, it is recommended to consult a certified financial advisor.
Alt-Season or Alt-Control-Delete.?🤖💣 Alt-Season or Alt-Control-Delete.? 🧠📉
The market looks like it's a bout to rug someone... and it might just be Trump.
While President Trump narrows down his Fed Chair shortlist, the real driver — Powell — is still at the wheel. But the car? It's swerving dangerously near the edge. BTC has lost a key S/R level, the S&P 500 is at major resistance, and Total Crypto Market Cap is stalling at a crucial decision point.
Despite the hype around altcoins and "recovery rallies," I’m deeply cautious. JP Morgan and Bank of America stocks might dip after Trump’s public accusations — signaling that institutions might already be repositioning. Capital tends to exit before the narrative shifts... and that shift could be incoming.
The chart says it best:
👀 BTC beneath S/R
🎲 S&P 500 gamblers partying at resistance
🧠 Meme coin mania while total crypto hits S/R
🧨 Trump’s signaling right, but Powell might yank the wheel left...
This could all be the calm before a liquidity flush.
Stay sharp, don’t follow the crowd — follow the capital.
That said , Bitcoin remains my favorite asset — especially in times of systemic risk. Remember what history shows us: when banks stumble or go bust, Bitcoin tends to rise. If there's one asset in the world I want to carry through a storm, it's Bitcoin. The decentralized antidote to centralized chaos.
One Love,
The FX PROFESSOR 💙
ps. we might see a breakout and Fomo for good reasons...why not? but for now my charts are screaming: CAREFUL!
Disclosure: I am happy to be part of the Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Awesome broker, where the trader really comes first! 🌟🤝📈
S&P 500: Bullish! Buy It!In this video, we will analyze the following FX market for the week of Aug 25 - 29th:
S&P 500 (ES1!)
The S&P 500 ended the week with strong bullish momentum, closing above the previous 3 days. The structure is bullish on the HTFs, and there is not good reason to look for sells.
Buy the bullish price action.
No sells until there is a definitive bearish break of market structure!
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
S&P 500 (ES1!) : Time For A Pullback From The Highs?In this video, we will analyze the following FX market for the week of Aug 18 - 22nd:
S&P 500 (ES1!)
The S&P 500 hit ATHs again last week, but the last three trading days were narrow in range. Friday was a bearish close.
There is an untested Weekly and Monthly +FVG that price would potentially rebalance before going higher.
I believe this will be the draw on liquidity next week.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
SP500 Secondary trend. Part of the channel. Reversal zone. 2025 Logarithm. Time frame 1 month (less is not necessary). The SP500 index primarily reflects the "health" of the American stock market and the economy as a whole. This is reflected in all markets by the domino effect.
Now, after a huge takeout and recovery, the price is at the maximums of the local trend that has formed, and this is also the maximum of the index as a whole for its entire 100-year existence (before displaying on the chart).
🔄 Locally, the price has run into the resistance of the median of the ascending channel (green dotted line). Now the resistance level of this zone will be formed.
🟢 A breakout of this zone upwards - an exit above the median, promises strong growth and pumping of the stock market as a whole.
🔴 And the reverse process is not a breakthrough and not a consolidation above this zone - consolidation in the range under resistance and above the dynamic support of the internal channel. An extremely negative case is a decline in the lower zone of the channel.
🧠 The chart as a whole shows the channel range itself. Including on both sides, price slippage zones (low probability), as well as key support / resistance levels of this secondary trend that exist, and those that will be formed in the future, but will be key for the development of the trend. This can be an addition to the analysis and formation of tactics and money management in other markets, including cryptocurrency.
S&P 500 ETF & Index– Technicals Hint at a Possible Correction📉📊 S&P 500 ETF & Index at Resistance – Technicals Hint at a Possible Correction 🔍⚠️
Everything here is pure technicals— but sometimes, the market whispers loud and clear if you know how to listen. 🧠📐
The VOO ETF, which tracks the S&P 500 , has now reached the upper boundary of a long-term ascending channel, once again brushing against resistance near 590.85. This zone has consistently led to major pullbacks in the past.
On the right panel, the US500 Index mirrors this move—pushing toward all-time highs, right as broader sentiment turns euphoric. Technically, both charts are overextended and pressing into key zones.
👀 Potential Path:
🔻 Rejection from current zone ➝ Down toward 526.17, then 465.72 (green support channel)
🔁 Possible bounce after correction — trend still intact long term
And while we’re keeping it technical, it’s worth noting that the Buffett Indicator (Stocks-to-GDP) i s currently screaming “overvaluation.” This doesn't predict timing—but it adds macro context to an already overheated chart setup.
The lesson? Price respects structure. Whether or not the fundamentals are in agreement, the charts are warning that now may not be the time to chase.
History doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes. Stay sharp, stay technical. 🎯
One Love,
The FX PROFESSOR 💙
ps. the beauty of these levels? Tight Stop loss- excellent R/R
Disclosure: I am happy to be part of the Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Awesome broker, where the trader really comes first! 🌟🤝📈
Bitcoin - Between DXY Stagnation and S&P Support.⊣
⟁ BTC/USD – BINANCE – (CHART: H1) – (Aug 20, 2025).
◇ Analysis Price: $113,658.22.
⊣
⨀ I. Temporal Axis – Strategic Interval – (H1):
✴️ The framework integrates (BTC/USD, DXY, and S&P500), synchronized on the daily scale, with the objective of capturing macro-structural correlations between dollar strength, global risk appetite, and internal Bitcoin flows.
▦ EMA9 – $113,686.19:
∴ Serves as the immediate momentum barometer, reflecting short-term order flow;
∴ Currently below both EMA21 and EMA50, indicating bearish micro-structure dominance;
∴ Acts as the first dynamic resistance for intraday mean reversion attempts.
✴️ Conclusion: Bitcoin remains capped under the short-term pulse barrier, restricting upside elasticity.
⊢
▦ EMA21 – $113,831.53:
∴ Functions as the transitional equilibrium line, bridging short and mid-term dynamics;
∴ Price is consistently trading below, validating sustained bearish pressure;
∴ Convergence of EMA9 attempting to retest EMA21 suggests an imminent decision point.
✴️ Conclusion: Mid-term equilibrium remains bearish-biased unless price closes above EMA21 with volume confirmation.
⊢
▦ EMA50 – $114,642.27:
∴ Serves as the macro structural wall, separating correction from reversal;
∴ With BTC positioned significantly below EMA50, broader trend control remains with sellers;
∴ EMA50 flattening indicates exhaustion of downward acceleration, yet no bullish transition.
✴️ Conclusion: EMA50 is the critical pivot-structure stays bearish until reclaimed.
⊢
▦ BB (21, 2, basis = EMA9) – Basis: $113,831.53 / Upper: $114,436.52 / Lower: $113,226.53:
∴ Bands compressing, signaling imminent volatility expansion;
∴ Price oscillating at the lower half, underscoring downside pressure;
∴ Lack of expansion suggests market is in “coiled spring” mode.
✴️ Conclusion: Volatility compression precedes directional breakout-likely aligned with macro catalyst.
⊢
▦ RSI (21, 9) – 43.09:
∴ Sub-neutral, below the 50 threshold, denoting lack of bullish momentum;
∴ Recent stabilization around 40–45 implies consolidation rather than capitulation;
∴ Divergence checks show no strong bullish divergence yet.
✴️ Conclusion: RSI reflects persistent weakness; structure requires break above 50 to regain bullish momentum.
⊢
▦ MACD (9, 21, 9) – Line: 146.49 / Signal: –145.34 / Histogram: –291.83:
∴ Negative histogram, confirming momentum pressure remains bearish;
∴ Early convergence between line and signal suggests weakening downside impulse;
∴ Momentum is not yet shifting-still transitional.
✴️ Conclusion: Bearish momentum intact but with signs of deceleration.
⊢
▦ ADX (9, 21) – 39.36:
∴ Near the 40 level, confirming presence of a strong active trend;
∴ Directional movement favors the sellers, with dominance still intact;
∴ Slight ADX easing signals weakening conviction but not invalidated.
✴️ Conclusion: Bears remain in structural control, though trend intensity may soon wane.
⊢
🜎 Strategic Insight – Technical Oracle:
∴ The triangular interplay of macro (DXY flat, S&P mildly positive), technicals (BTC below EMA50, with compression in BB), and on-chain (short-term inflow pressure, elevated Open Interest, slightly positive funding) outlines a fragile structure;
∴ BTC is bearish in short-term structure, trading under all three EMA thresholds;
∴ Macro backdrop offers no relief (DXY neutral, equities only mildly supportive);
∴ On-chain flows highlight imbalance: exchange inflows suggest sellers may pressure further, while long-term reserves confirm structural scarcity.
⚔️ Oracle’s Seal: Unless Bitcoin decisively reclaims EMA50 with volume, the probability favors continued downside probes toward ($111,500 / $112,000). A break of inflow dominance paired with Open Interest flush would be required to reverse this structural bias.
⊢
⨀ Macro Support & Resistance (BTC/USD – H1):
Immediate Support: $113,200 – aligned with Bollinger Band lower boundary;
Secondary Support: $111,500 – historical liquidity cluster;
Immediate Resistance: $114,450 – BB upper boundary and EMA50 confluence;
Macro Resistance: $116,000 / $118,000 – prior weekly rejection zone.
⊢
∫ II. On-Chain Intelligence - (Source: CryptoQuant):
▦ Exchange Inflow: Elevated activity clusters, signaling potential sell pressure;
▦ Exchange Outflow: Neutral-to-mild accumulation, not offsetting inflows;
▦ Funding Rate: (+0.007), indicating slight long bias persists, vulnerable to liquidation;
▦ Open Interest: ($40.8B), elevated, increasing risk of amplified moves via derivative liquidations;
▦ Exchange Reserve: (2.531M Bitcoin), structural downtrend, indicating long-term supply depletion.
⊢
🜎 Strategic Insight - On-Chain Oracle:
Despite long-term structural bullishness from falling reserves, short-term inflow spikes and elevated OI signal vulnerability to further corrections.
⊢
𓂀 Stoic-Structural Interpretation:
∴ The (BTC/USD) - ( hourly and daily structure remains in a compressed bearish phase ) - price is pinned beneath the EMA9, EMA21, and EMA50, all aligned downward, a trinity of resistance sealing momentum;
∴ Bollinger Bands reveal coiled volatility; pressure accumulates as if within a vessel of silence before rupture;
∴ RSI at 43 lingers in weakness; MACD histogram negative but converging - the storm slows but has not dispersed; ADX near 40 testifies the trend is still strong, though waning.
∴ On-Chain flows (CryptoQuant) whisper caution:
Inflows -> Outflows -> latent sell-pressure;
Funding slightly positive -> longs exposed to purge;
Open Interest elevated near $40B -> leverage imbalance;
Exchange Reserves declining -> long-term scarcity intact.
∴ Macro field - (DXY flat, S&P500) - provides no decisive impulse, leaving Bitcoin vulnerable to its internal flows.
✴️ Conclusion within the Arcanvm Technical Framework:
∴ Bitcoin stands at the threshold of choice: beneath structural EMA's, with inflow pressure tightening the noose, yet with reserves eroding in the background - a paradox of short-term fragility, long-term scarcity;
∴ The Oracle speaks: only a reclaim of EMA50 with volume and Open Interest flush can transmute this silence into bullish expansion. Otherwise, descent toward the ($111,500 / $112,000) support remains the path of least resistance.
⊢
✦ Structure:
∴ Trend Alignment: (BTC/USD) remains beneath EMA9, EMA21, and EMA50 - a stacked bearish configuration confirming short-term, mid-term, and structural momentum aligned to the downside;
∴ Volatility Compression: Bollinger Bands (21,2) contract, signaling that volatility is storing potential energy - the market is in coil phase, awaiting a trigger;
∴ Momentum Profile: RSI lingers at 43, sub-neutral, reflecting lack of bullish force; MACD histogram negative but converging, portraying bearish momentum in deceleration; ADX at 39 validates that the bearish trend is still dominant, though losing intensity;
∴ Macro Overlay: (DXY flat, S&P500) marginally positive - no decisive macro catalyst to override BTC’s structural weakness;
∴ On-Chain Dynamics: Exchange inflows slightly outweigh outflows, funding rate positive, and open interest elevated near $40B -> a leveraged market with fragile long positioning. Exchange reserves continue structural decline -> long-term scarcity intact.
✴️ Conclusion: The structure is locked in short-term bearish fragility, confined under EMA barriers, with inflow pressure and leveraged longs creating risk of liquidation cascades. Only a decisive reclaim of EMA50 can shift the framework; otherwise, the gravitational path points toward ($111,500 / $112,000) supports.
⊢
· Cryptorvm Dominvs · MAGISTER ARCANVM · Vox Primordialis ·
· Dominivm Cardo Gyratio Omnivm · Silence precedes the next force. Structure is sacred ·
⊢
US500 – Has the Correction Started?1. What Happened Yesterday
Yesterday, US500 dropped around 1%, signaling that a meaningful correction could be starting. Unlike Nasdaq, which already broke under two key support levels, here the price is still above the trendline that began back at the end of May, when the index broke through the important 5800 resistance.
The rise since April has been huge and not fundamentally justified, making the index vulnerable to a reversal towards more sustainable levels.
________________________________________
2. Key Question
Has the correction really started, or will we first see another spike before the drop?
________________________________________
3. Why More Downside is Likely
• Trendline vulnerability: A break under 6380 could trigger acceleration to the downside.
• First bear target: 6100, the old ATH.
• Bigger picture: A move under 6000 remains likely, with 5800 as a longer-term destination.
• Risk/reward setup: Any spike higher should be seen as a selling opportunity. Around 6500 would be ideal to short.
________________________________________
4. Trading Plan
• Sell spikes, especially near 6500).
• Watch 6380 – break here could open the way towards 6100.
• Medium/long term bias: Bearish, with more room down than up.
________________________________________
5. Final Note 🚀
The market must confirm, but the strategy is clear: don’t chase the bounce, sell the strength and ride the correction.
Disclosure: I am part of TradeNation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
S&P 500 on the Edge – Crypto Awaits the Signal📉📊 S&P 500 on the Edge – Crypto Awaits the Signal 🧠⚠️
Hey Traders! Quick note before we dive in — apologies for the audio quality in this update 🎙️. I had the wrong mic set up (classic move!), but the charts are what matter, and we’ve got some serious levels to respect.
🔙 Back from the Holidays – Still All In
Mid-August is a special time here in Cyprus and Greece, and I took a well-deserved breather with family and friends. But rest assured, I haven’t been idle — behind the scenes, I’ve been working intensely on indicators to elevate my TradingView game — and why not yours too, eventually? 😉
(Just to be clear: no advertising, no selling — just sharing my process and market views, as always.)
📌 The Big Picture – S&P 500
We’re back at that critical level: 6432 .
✅ Above = market stays optimistic
❌ Below = correction risk increases, likely toward 6223
Right now, the odds lean 41% upside / 59% downside , and considering we’re at all-time highs, caution is wise. Buying ATHs is never the best strategy unless confirmed by momentum.
🪙 Bitcoin – Caught Between Key Levels
BTC is sandwiched between two key zones:
🔺 Reclaiming 116,525 = bullish signal
🔻 Losing 115,000 = exposes downside to 110,000
This is a true 50/50 — stuck below a broken ascending channel and flirting with a violated S/R level. Stay reactive, not predictive.
💪 Ethereum – The Strongest Major
Ethereum continues to outperform. Today we didn’t catch the day-trade long, but the 4,210 level is major support.
ETH market dominance is rising steadily — the charts reflect it.
🧩 Altcoin Insights
- ARB : Reclaim 0.54 for possible move to 0.76
- XRP : Key support at 2.93 . Break higher? We could see 3.33+
- ADA : Watching 0.87 support. Below that? Caution.
Market-wide, TOTAL and altcoins are still sluggish. Until momentum returns, tactical plays > emotional ones.
🧠 Summary:
- 📍 S&P 500 is the key signal.
- 📉 BTC & ETH stuck, waiting on that SPX cue.
- 📊 ETH leads the pack — but patience is key.
- ⚖️ Altcoins are mixed, respect your levels.
This market is full of potential — but clarity comes from levels, not guessing. Let’s trade smart. 🔍
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
Disclosure: I am happy to be part of the Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Awesome broker, where the trader really comes first! 🌟🤝📈
ES1! Plan — Fri Aug 15 | OPEX + U. Mich (10:00 ET). Key levelsES held above 6480 and is pressing into 6490s ahead of monthly OPEX and U. Michigan Sentiment at 10:00 ET. Yesterday’s hot PPI (3.3% YoY) keeps rates sticky; 6500 is a logical magnet/pin.
Levels:
• Sell zones: 6492–6495, 6502–6506 (watch 6500).
• Buy zones: 6483–6486, 6476–6480, 6468–6472.
A++ Setups (≥15-pt TP1):
1. Short 6492–6495 (or 6502–6506) on absorption + LH/ChoCH → TP1 6477–6480, TP2 6468–6472.
2. Long 6476–6480 (or defended 6483–6486) on absorption + HH/VWAP reclaim → TP1 6492–6495, TP2 6502–6506.
Risk: Stop 6–8 pts beyond zones or ≥1.25× 1-min ATR past last swing. Scale 40–50% at TP1; BE+2 on balance; trail swings.
Event risk: 10:00 ET U. Mich; late-day OPEX flows (14:00–16:00) and MOC around 15:50 ET.
Not financial advice.
Summer RALLY-2025: What’s Driving #SP500 and #NQ100 Higher?Dear readers, earlier on June 25, 2025, in our article “Unexpected Surges and Drops in the Indices” we noted the U.S. economy’s readiness for bullish sentiment.
On August 12, 2025 #SP500 climbed above 6,400, and #NQ100 hit a new high above 23,800 as U.S. inflation came in softer than expected, prompting the market to believe in an imminent Fed rate cut — money became “cheaper,” making stocks more attractive. Tech giants and all things AI — chips and cloud — are in high demand and lead the gains. Many companies have reported earnings above forecasts, and buybacks are underway, supporting prices. A weaker dollar is also boosting the revenues of multinational corporations. As a result, investors are buying more aggressively, pushing indices to new records.
5 Reasons Why #S&P500 and #NQ100 Could Hold Their Ground Until the End of 2025:
Dovish Fed. Rate cuts → cheaper money → higher valuations.
AI and data center boom. Growing demand for chips, cloud, and software lifts the tech sector.
Profits + buybacks. Companies beat forecasts and repurchase shares → EPS growth and price support.
Low yields and weaker dollar. Stocks look more attractive than bonds; exporters earn more easily.
Domestic investment in the U.S. Localized production and infrastructure fuel demand for tech and industry.
The foundation of #SP500 and #NQ100 growth is profit. The earnings season added confidence: market participants liked the “breadth” of earnings beats and the resilience of margins among major issuers — the third pillar of the current rally. According to FreshForex, soft inflation and expectations of a Fed rate cut create a window of opportunity for long positions in #SP500 and #NQ100.
Tomorrow’s Playbook: Levels, News Bias & Scenarios 08/14/2025Summary: Bias = Neutral→Bullish while above 6,464–6,466 and the 15m 200-EMA (6,459). A clean 5m/15m acceptance above 6,491/6,500 favors continuation; otherwise expect a data-driven sweep into 6,475–6,468 to test demand.
Scenarios & Triggers (rule-based)
1) Continuation breakout
• Trigger: 5m close > 6,491 → probe 6,496–6,500.
• Validation: 15m acceptance above 6,500 (no immediate rejection).
• Targets: 6,502–6,505 first; stretch 6,512/6,520 if momentum persists.
• Management: If price reclaims 6,491 from above after a retest, momentum likely intact.
2) Rotation to demand (buy-the-dip if structure holds)
• Trigger: Rejection at 6,489–6,491 with 5m close back inside range.
• Path: 6,482 → 6,475.5 → 6,468; watch order-flow absorption or an FVG fill inside 6,464–6,466.
• Validation: Bullish 5m close from the box and 15m structure holds above 6,459.
• Targets on bounce: Return to 6,489–6,491, then 6,496–6,500.
3) Bearish flip (lower-probability without data shock)
• Trigger (strict): 15m bearish confirmation and sustained acceptance below 6,459 (15m 200-EMA).
• Path: Open the door to a deeper mean-reversion leg toward prior breakout bases (next map would be built after the break).
• Note: No shorts without that 15m confirmation per protocol.
Educational only — not financial advice.
US500 Short Setup: Bearish Momentum Toward 6205Currently holding a short position on the US500 from the 6358 level, based on Smart Money Concepts. Price has tapped into a premium zone within a higher time frame supply area, showing clear signs of distribution. Liquidity has been swept above recent highs, and a shift in market structure confirms bearish intent. I’m targeting the 6205 level, expecting a rapid downside move in the very short term as smart money drives price toward discounted levels.
Bitcoin vs S&P 500 – Ratio Signals Strength, Chart favors BTC!🚀📊 Bitcoin vs S&P 500 – Ratio Signals Strength, Even If Stocks Correct 🔍📈
After posting earlier today about VOO (S&P 500 ETF) and the index itself hitting major resistance, I wanted to shift our focus to what could shine even if stocks pull back: Bitcoin.
This chart shows the BTCUSD/SPX ratio – in simple terms, how Bitcoin is performing relative to the S&P 500 . And what do we see? Clear, technical strength.
🔍 Key Observations:
BTC/SPX is currently breaking out from a bullish flag structure just above the 17.30–17.48 region
If the breakout holds, the projected technical target is near 26.37, the top of this multi-year channel
Historically, previous breakouts from similar zones have delivered explosive upside, even when equities struggled
🧠 So what does this mean?
Even if the stock market pulls back—as suggested in our earlier VOO/US500 chart—Bitcoin could still outperform, simply by dropping less, consolidating, or rising while stocks fall. That’s the power of analyzing ratios, not just absolute price.
We’ve already discussed how macro metrics like the Buffett Indicator (Stocks-to-GDP) are showing equity overvaluation. If capital starts rotating out of equities, Bitcoin is positioned as a beneficiary—especially if it maintains this relative strength.
💬 Final thoughts:
Don’t just look at BTC in isolation— look at it relative to what it's competing against
Ratios offer perspective: this one says Bitcoin’s trend vs stocks is up and strong
With solid support at 14.23 and room to run toward 26.37, this could be a chart to watch for months ahead
Are you watching this breakout? Let me know what your game plan is.
FOOD FOR THOUGHT: With Gold prices easing, stock markets at all time highs, is this the PERFECT time for big money to hedge with Bitcoin? Likely yes !
One Love,
The FX PROFESSOR 💙
Disclosure: I am happy to be part of the Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Awesome broker, where the trader really comes first! 🌟🤝📈
ES Futures — Week Ahead Playbook (Aug 11–15)Macro Drivers to Watch
Tue Aug 12 @ 8:30 AM ET — CPI (July)
Key inflation print; expect sharp vol expansion in NY AM.
Wed Aug 13 @ 2:00 PM ET — FOMC Minutes
Insight into Fed’s July 29–30 meeting tone.
Fri Aug 15 @ 8:30 AM ET — PPI (July) + Retail Sales (July)
Two high-impact releases within minutes.
Geopolitics:
US–China tensions over AI chip export controls & Russian oil tariffs
Possible Alaska summit with Trump, Putin, Zelenskyy Friday.
Bias & Structure
Trend (30m / 15m / 5m): Still bullish but pressing into 6415–6425 supply / weak-high zone.
Demand below: ~6410, ~6397, ~6386, ~6374.
Supply above: ~6425, ~6442–6446, ~6460–6465.
Setup 1 — Post-CPI Continuation Long
Trigger: First 5m close above 6422–6425 after CPI, then retest holds.
Entry: 6423–6427 (retest).
Invalidation: 5m close < 6418.
Targets:
TP1: 6432–6435
TP2: 6442–6446
TP3: 6460–6465
Notes: Needs bullish displacement, BOS hold, and Bookmap absorption on retest.
Setup 2 — Post-CPI Reversal Short
Trigger: Hot CPI or failed breakout → 5m close < 6406–6410, then retest from below.
Entry: 6406–6410.
Invalidation: 5m close > 6413–6415.
Targets:
TP1: 6388–6392
TP2: 6376–6378
TP3: 6358–6362
Notes: Needs trend flip on 30m/15m (CHoCH/BOS down) & heavy offer-side aggression.
S&P 500 (ES1!): Bullish! Look For Valid Buy Setups!In this video, we will analyze the following FX market for the week of Aug 11 - 15h:
S&P 500 (ES1!)
The S&P 500 rose Friday to close the week strong on a busy week of tariff updates and good earnings.
There is no reason to consider selling.
Wait for pullbacks to FVGs for high probability buys. Look for IRL to ERL, and repeat.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Trump Boosts 401K Crypto Talk, But BTC Levels Lead the Way UP📢💥 Trump Boosts 401K Crypto Talk, But BTC Levels Lead the Way UP 🧠📊
News just dropped that President Trump may sign an executive order allowing crypto into 401(k) retirement plans. 🇺🇸📜 While that’s a massive headline, let’s stay grounded—we play the levels, not the politics. 🧘♂️📉📈
⚠️ A quick disclaimer: It’s Trump, so… let’s see if the ink even hits the paper. But price is king, and the chart already gave us the real signal.
🔄 Bitcoin just reclaimed the single most important level: $115,800. This isn’t just a number—it was the previous ascending channel’s support, and it’s now acting as strong support again. This changes the game.
🟢 As I’ve mentioned in previous ideas, I remain hedged:
✔️ Long BTC
❌ Short S&P 500
That ratio is working out well, as shared earlier today in the post:
“Bitcoin vs S&P 500 – Ratio Signals Strength” — it’s clear which asset the market favors. BTC is holding structure. SPX? Not so much. 📉🔍
🎯 Next upside target: $122,795
🚀 Bigger extension level: $132,595
🛑 Breakdown invalidation: Loss of $115,800 would weaken the case.
News or not, structure always wins. Stay sharp, stay level-headed. The market rewards those who listen to the chart, not the noise. 📡🧠
One Love,
The FX PROFESSOR 💙
Disclosure: I am happy to be part of the Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Awesome broker, where the trader really comes first! 🌟🤝📈
JP Morgan warns the S&P is due a retracement!🚨 Alert 🚨
JP Morgan and Deutsche Bank are the latest to warn that the S&P is due for a correction.
I'm short with a small position size, as the price could move higher yet... Judging by experience, it's near impossible to predict tops. It's best to close long positions or enter smaller-sized short positions with large stops.
VANTAGE:SP500 PEPPERSTONE:US500 ICMARKETS:US500 OANDA:SPX500USD
Okay, Let's Take a Live Look Into the Market 📺⚡ Okay, Let's Take a Live Look Into the Market 💹🔥
Important levels across S&P 500, Bitcoin, and XRP are all flashing 🔴 right now. Here's what I'm seeing in real-time:
📈 S&P 500 Futures – 6,351 Is Everything
The 6,351 level marks the midpoint of the rising channel.
On Friday, I flagged 6,430 as critical resistance — price rejected perfectly.
Now we’re attempting a rebound, but we’re stuck at mid-channel.
⚠️ A confirmed breakout above 6,351 could reignite upside momentum.
👉 Yes, this is a 1-minute chart, but precision matters when watching key structural levels — especially in legacy indices.
💥 BTC – 115,700: The Grandmaster Level
Zoom out and see the massive yellow horizontal on the chart: 115,700.
It’s not just any number — this is the ultimate resistance-turned-support battleground.
We’re currently under it, which keeps pressure to the downside.
A reclaim flips the structure bullish and opens room for trend continuation.
📌 Until we’re above it, this remains the dominant resistance across the entire crypto macro framework.
🧩 XRP – Still Facing Rejection
On the 2H/3H chart, XRP continues to flirt with resistance but fails to confirm strength.
This aligns with both the S&P 500 stalling at 6,351 and Bitcoin being capped at 115.7K.
📉 When multiple assets respect key levels in sync, it signals market-wide hesitation.
🔄 Cross-Market Confluence
It’s fascinating to watch:
A TradFi index (S&P)
A macro crypto asset (BTC)
A mid-tier alt (XRP)
...all pivoting around hyper-precise structural resistance at the same time.
✅ These aren’t coincidences. They’re systemic correlations.
🔮 What’s Next?
If S&P 500 breaks above 6,351, it could act as a risk-on signal.
That momentum could help BTC flip 115,700 — a massive deal.
And if that happens, XRP could finally follow with a stronger move.
Until then? We respect resistance and wait for confirmation. 📊🔍
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
Disclosure: I am happy to be part of the Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Awesome broker, where the trader really comes first! 🌟🤝📈
S&P 500: Bearish For The Short Term! Sell It!Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of July 28 - Aug 1st.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX market for the week of Aug 4-8th:
S&P 500 (ES1!)
The S&P 500 rose Friday to fresh highs, following a busy week of tariff updates and earnings. The S&P ended the week with its fifth straight record close, its longest such streak in over a year.
No reason to consider selling. Wait for pullbacks to FVGs for high probability buys.
FOMC and NFP loom. Be careful to avoid new entries during news times.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Watching AAPL closely here !!!Not financial advice – just sharing my outlook. 📉📈
Price is currently rejecting the upper trendline resistance around $213 and struggling to hold above the $207-$208 zone.
Looking for potential puts as long as price remains under this key resistance area.
Will be buying the dip near the $195 or $185 zone where strong demand and trendline support intersect.
Key levels :
Resistance: $213.29 / $207.54
Support: $202.38 / $195.00