Be careful with S&P500 !!!The price can form a head and shoulders pattern. If that is happen, expect a significant price increase.
Sp500index
Weekly Outlook: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 19 December 2025XAUUSD: BUY 4327.20, SL 4300.00, TP 4420.00
Gold enters the week of December 15–19, 2025 near record highs, with prices holding around $4,327 per ounce. The main support comes from expectations of lower US rates following the Federal Reserve’s December rate cut, as well as the market’s sensitivity to any signs of slowing growth. Demand is also reinforced by risk-off sentiment linked to geopolitical tensions and news about broader investor access to gold via funds in major markets.
For the week ahead, the key drivers are fresh US macro data and decisions from leading central banks. If US bond yields and the dollar keep easing, interest in gold is likely to remain strong. A restraining scenario would be the opposite: stronger US data that pushes the dollar and yields higher. In the base case, gold looks resilient, but headline-driven volatility may stay elevated.
Trading recommendation: BUY 4327.20, SL 4300.00, TP 4420.00
#SP500: BUY 6846, SL 6780, TP 7040
US equities start the week with mixed sentiment: after sharp moves in some technology names, investors are becoming more selective, but the broader backdrop remains supportive. S&P 500 futures hover near 6,846, and the focus is on the rate path and the health of the US economy. The recent Fed rate cut helps expectations for lower financing costs and supports risk appetite.
This week’s spotlight is on a heavy central-bank calendar (including Japan, the UK, and the euro area) and key US releases (some statistics are published with delays), which can quickly shift positioning. A constructive scenario for the index is the absence of negative surprises on inflation and jobs alongside expectations of a more accommodative policy stance later on. Risks to the upside include a sudden deterioration in the external backdrop or renewed concerns about stretched valuations in parts of the market.
Trading recommendation: BUY 6846, SL 6780, TP 7040
#BRENT: SELL 61.44, SL 62.10, TP 59.40
Brent opens the week around $61.44 per barrel. In the near term, prices are supported by supply-disruption risks — notably around Venezuela, sanctions constraints, and isolated attacks on oil infrastructure. Such headlines can trigger quick spikes higher even when demand is not particularly strong.
However, fundamentally, the week’s dominant theme is excess supply and rising inventories. A number of international assessments and US outlooks point to a risk of market surplus in 2026 and downside pressure on prices if current production levels persist. In practice, this means rallies may more often meet selling interest, and the market could react sharply to any signals of weaker demand or higher supply. As a result, the baseline bias for the week is mildly negative, with volatility likely to remain elevated.
Trading recommendation: SELL 61.44, SL 62.10, TP 59.40
GOLD vs SP500 Bullish!Gold is outperforming the S&P 500 by 38%+
It is currently in the process of what seems to be a nice and bullish old-fashioned cup and handle.
More data is needed, but keep an eye on it.
Ask yourself, why is so much money pouring into gold over the SP500??
Let's get to 6,000 followers. ))
Weekly Outlook: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 12 December 2025XAUUSD: BUY 4215.50, SL 4195.00, TP 4337.00
Gold enters the week supported by expectations of a Fed rate cut and a weaker dollar. The spot price is holding around 4,215 per ounce as of Monday morning. The market assigns a high probability to a rate reduction already at the December meeting, which lowers real yields and increases the appeal of non-yielding safe-haven assets. An additional backdrop is the continued interest from the official sector: according to professional organizations, central banks are maintaining net purchases and, overall, intend to build up gold reserves.
On a one-week horizon, the base case for XAUUSD remains constructive: potential monetary easing in the United States, a cautious tone in assessing the economy, and elevated uncertainty support demand for this “quiet” asset. Risks to the upside scenario include a tougher-than-expected Fed statement, unexpectedly strong U.S. data, a stronger dollar, and profit-taking after new highs. As a tactic, we suggest buying at 4,215.50, with a protective stop at 4,195.00 and a target area at 4,337.00.
Trading recommendation: BUY 4215.50, SL 4195.00, TP 4337.00
#SP500: BUY 6870, SL 6830, TP 7140
The U.S. equity market approaches the week of a key Fed decision near record levels: the index is fluctuating around 6,870. A cut in the policy rate would increase the economy’s sensitivity to investment stimuli and ease financing conditions, which typically supports large-cap stocks. Another factor is resilient earnings expectations in sectors investing in digital infrastructure and automation. On the news front, a series of corporate reports and comments from Fed leadership will set the tone for the coming weeks.
Key risks to further gains include a future rate path that proves higher than participants expect, signs of cooling consumer activity, and potential margin pressure from costs. Even so, if the course toward monetary easing is confirmed, the base case is moderate further upside. The tactic is to buy from 6,870 with protection at 6,830 and a target of 7,140.
Trading recommendation: BUY 6870, SL 6830, TP 7140
#BRENT: BUY 63.80, SL 63.30, TP 69.80
Brent crude begins the week around 63.80 per barrel amid expectations of a Fed rate cut and supply-related headlines. The likelihood of monetary easing in the United States supports the outlook for future energy demand. On the supply side, sporadic disruptions and OPEC+ caution in ramping up output persist, while high-frequency data indicate fluctuations in actual shipments from certain countries. In parallel, foreign-trade statistics for major consumers signal heavy import loads toward year-end.
On a one-week horizon, the balance of factors looks moderately supportive for prices: the combination of rate expectations, supply news, and cross-border constraints in commodity trade keeps a risk premium in place. Risks to the upside scenario include an acceleration in global production in 2025–2026, weak inventory data, and possible de-escalation of geopolitical threats, which would quickly remove the fear component from prices. We suggest a Brent buying tactic with entry at 63.80, a stop at 63.30, and a target at 69.80.
Trading recommendation: BUY 63.80, SL 63.30, TP 69.80
SPX - H4 - SELL SETUP - Supply Retest confirmedSPX has entered bear market territory last month and I expect a continuation to the downtrend from here onward. Based on many different macro indicators such as credit default swaps on big tech, macro regimes, sentiment and technical analysis. I see SPX falling off the clip from this precise supply zone
S&P500: Futures Stuck in Tight Range S&P 500 futures traded mostly sideways yesterday, remaining confined within a tight range. In our primary scenario, however, we anticipate that magenta wave (4) will soon resume its downward move. During this phase, the index is expected to initially break below the support levels at 6540 and 6371 points. We then look for the final low of the wave (4) correction to occur within our green Long Target Zone between 6163 and 5912 points. Once this low is established, the subsequent wave (5) should propel prices above resistance at 6952, marking the peak of the broader blue wave (III). Immediately after, we expect the onset of magenta wave (1), which should kick off a significant corrective phase. However, if the index continues to fall below the Long Target Zone, our alternative scenario may come into play (probability: 31%). In that case, it would suggest that the alternative blue wave alt.(III) has already completed and the major correction is already in progress.
BUY SPX NOW...time to buySPX500 is in a clear upwards channel and has broken the last bit of resistance (white trendline line shown) - this is a clear confirmation that the next target will be the next resistance zone to the upside shown above (this is a great buy trade opportunity) - Time to buy!
S&P 500 (ES1!): Bullish! Look For Valid Buys!Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast or the week of Dec. 1-5th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: S&P 500 (ES1!)
The S&P500 rallied last week, closing strong! Look for follow through going into this week.
Go with the overall bullish trend until there is a bearish market structure break.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much.
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
SPY & Macro HistoricalToday FED ended QN (Quantitative Normalizing NOT "T" = tightening. 1st, you normalize, then you tighten. Right??)
The Fed is continuing to let mortgage-backed securities roll off its balance sheet, while the U.S. Treasury increases T-bill issuance (cash-like instruments). That combination means more gov securities are hitting the market even as the Fed’s balance sheet stays roughly unchanged.
More Treasury supply + no Fed buying = higher yields and tighter liquidity. More MBS roll-off = higher mortgage rates and pressure on housing. Treasury bills soak up cash, while longer bonds suffer.
🔥 REALMACRO summary:
The Fed is doing this to:
Get out of the mortgage market.
Strengthen the Treasury bill market (the foundation of dollar liquidity).
Keep bank reserves “ample” without restarting QE.
This combo lets them tighten just enough to cool asset prices, without breaking the plumbing again like in 2019.
The success of this experiment will largely determine how long the Fed can avoid returning to QE. If liquidity tightens too far as the economy continues to weaken, they’ll be forced back into some form of balance sheet expansion sooner rather than later.
Lastly, let's check how right I was when I posted "MMT Everything."
As of April 2020, US debt was $ 24T. Today, it is $38T, representing a total increase of $14T in 5 years.
✅ CAGR ≈ 9.6% per year
✅ S&P 500 CAGR (Apr 2020 → Today): ~18.6% per year
Both are completely unsustainable growth rates.
I nailed that back in April 2020. Trump & MMT "print and play" will be the death of us! SIGH!
Lastly, the DOGE gimmick was a complete and total failure as expected. No reduction in deficit and no fraud found. Imagine that!
As I keep saying, " NEVER INVEST IN TOXIC PEOPLE! THEY WILL ALWAYS BURN YOU IN THE END!" It's not political it's a FACT!
THANK YOU for getting me to 5,000 followers! 🙏🔥
Let’s keep climbing.
If you enjoy the work:
👉 Drop a solid comment
Let’s push it to 6,000 and keep building a community grounded in truth, not hype.
SPX — a new ATH is coming very soon.The market has just formed a clean initial impulse and broke out of the descending Andrews pitchfork , which tells us one thing: the correction is about done. (I previously expected a triangle as a possible correction, but the structure is now clear.)
From here, the next step is simple — a new all-time high.
Targets: I’m focused on the 127.2% and 161.8% Fibonacci extensions of the correction.
Trading plan: I’m waiting for a local 3-wave pullback — and only then I’ll enter on the breakout. Entering “just because it dipped” — ❌ never an option.
SPY - Potential Head & Shoulders And now we have this exhaustion pattern again. I went back and foruth on this yesterday. But in the final minutes a bought shorts again. The right shoulder can consolidate for a few days and the H&S can still be invalidated but I have this on my bucket list. I can´t sit on the sidelines on this one. If it happens, it will be legendary. With first strong support at 605
S&P500: Poised for Further Pullback The S&P 500 futures are currently trading just above support at 6,540 points, but are expected to see a temporary pullback within magenta wave (4). In our primary scenario, we anticipate the sell-off will extend into the green Long Target Zone between 6,163 and 5,912 points. From this area, we expect the start of wave (5), which would complete the magenta five-wave sequence and push the index higher—ideally above resistance at 6,952 points. This move would also mark the final high of the broader blue wave (III). However, if selling pressure intensifies and the Long Target Zone is breached, our alternative scenario will come into play (probability: 31%). In this case, blue wave alt.(III) would already be complete, and the index would enter a significantly deeper correction phase.
ZOETIS: Care for our pets and a potential good investmentZoetis Inc. is a leading animal health company that displays a strong financial position and significant growth opportunities. Despite a recent 30% stock price decline over the past 12 months, the company appears well-positioned for a meaningful recovery.
Zoetis' fundamentals are impressive, with EBITDA margins of 42.5%, profit margins of 28.2%, and $2.16 billion in free cash flow. This demonstrates the company's ability to generate robust cash flows and profitability. Additionally, its 49.9% ROE indicates efficient capital allocation. The company trades at a N/A P/E, suggesting the market is not fully capitalizing on its valuation potential.
The external context also supports the investment thesis. The animal health industry is experiencing sustained growth driven by demographic trends and increasing pet ownership. Furthermore, Zoetis has demonstrated strong strategic execution, launching new products and expanding its global presence.
The price has dropped to a strong support region, to about half it's maximum price on 2022. It is a cheap entry price for a company with excellent financial fundamentals.
With an average analyst price target of $169.96, implying a 39% upside potential.
My stock fundamentals recommender model (zignolz.com) gave it a strong confidence score: 81/100.
Zoetis appears to be an attractive recovery opportunity for long-term investors.
S&P 500 Reversal Roadmap: Second Bottom Forming at PRZ?As I expected in the previous idea , the S&P 500 index has indeed reached its targets after breaking through the Support lines .
Currently, the S&P 500 is approaching the Support zone($6,580_$6,490) , Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ) , and the 100_SMA(Daily) .
There’s a possibility of forming a second bottom and a descending channel in the S&P 500, suggesting that the second bottom could form near the PRZ .
From an Elliott Wave perspective, it seems that the S&P 500 is completing the microwave 5 of the microwave C of the main wave Y .
I expect that, after entering the PRZ or approaching the 100_SMA(Daily) , the S&P 500 will resume its upward movement and potentially rise to around $6,664 .
Note: The S&P 500 currently has a significant impact on the markets, especially cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ). Therefore, a potential rise in the S&P 500 could positively influence Bitcoin as well.
First Target: $6,664
Second Target: $6,723
Stop Los(SL): $6,499
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
S&P 500 Index Analyze (SPX500USD), 1-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
TRADINGVIEW — NY SESSION UPDATELondon pushed the Dollar into 99.591, but DXY remains inside yesterday’s structure.
Compression unchanged.
Yields softer into NY — 10Y −1.11%, 2Y −1.27% — defensive tone with no directional commitment.
ES reclaimed the 6655.50 London low and trades back inside its range.
Gold steady above 4019.57.
Volatility stable.
NY opens into a tight Dollar and softer yields.
First expansion sets the tone.
— CORE5DAN
Institutional Logic. Modern Technology. Real Freedom.
S&P500: Slightly higherS&P 500 futures edged slightly higher in yesterday’s session. The index appears to remain within the upward trajectory of magenta wave (5), which is expected to continue pushing higher. Once this wave reaches its peak, the larger blue wave (III) should also complete. Afterward, we anticipate a corrective phase in the form of magenta wave (A), which could put renewed pressure on the index. However, if prices reverse course and fall below the support level at 6,371, our alternative scenario will come into play. In that case, alternative wave alt.(4) would likely extend further downward, targeting a low within the corresponding alternative zone between 6,055 and 5,822 points (probability: 30%).
SPX since 1877 & 1896 & 1932-2021 & beyond. Waddup MM !!! 9 Years & 18 months. I choose the first largest three crashes as a base for cycles nothing more nothing less.
WADDUP MARKET MAKERS, CAN YOU SHARE THE PROBABILITIES OF YOUR ALGOS ;-) .
Blue adjusted for time = Action in June. Red and green = Action in July . It is like a
puzzle. Waddup MMs share the knowledge.
SPX wedge breakout: Reopen relief, 6780 tetest, 7k in SightS&P500 breaks out of a broadening wedge and retests 6780 support as government reopening odds fuel a relief bid.
Senate progress towards ending the record shutdown has lifted the overhang on data releases and growth, triggering a risk-on bounce across US indices. Price action confirmed a breakout with a clean throwback to 6780, aided by hidden bullish divergence on momentum before the surge to 6850.
Key drivers:
Government reopening: bipartisan Senate advance and White House support shift odds towards a near‑term resolution.
Technical confirmation: breakout from falling/broadening wedge, successful retest and RSI reset from overbought at 6850 towards midline supports continuation higher if 50 line holds.
Levels in play: support 6800–6775 and 6750; resistance 6850–6890 then 6930 with psychological 7000 on extension if momentum rebuilds.
Risk: reopening unleashes delayed macro data. A miss or policy hiccup could pull the price back toward the 50% area before the trend resumes and ahead of Nvidia earnings next week.
Bias stays long while above 6775: buy dips to 6750 with invalidation below 6725; If 6690 fails on a daily close, step aside and reassess.
S&P 500 (ES1!): Is This The Dip We Were Waiting For? Yes!Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast or the week of Nov. 10-14th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: S&P 500 (ES1!)
The S&P500 is respecting the Weekly +FVG... barely! Friday's rally may indicate the pullback is over and the resumption of the bullish momentum is upon us.
Look for valid buy setups only! Sells are not valid unless there is a bearish break of structure!
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much.
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Weekly Market Outlook: Nifty, BankNifty & S&P 500Nifty (25492) closed ~230 points lower this week, trading between 25803–25318 and once again respecting the broad 26150–25250 range.
Price formed a hammer candle near key support at 25300, signaling potential seller exhaustion — however, confirmation is required before expecting a trend reversal.
Bullish Confirmation Setup
Sustaining above 25600 → opens move toward 26000
Break above hammer high with volume = stronger confirmation
Downside / Risk Scenario
Structure remains constructive above 25000
Failure below 25000 could extend correction toward 24650–24580 zone
As highlighted earlier, November tends to be a corrective month, and a retest of 25150–25200 would be healthy.
If Nifty tests and holds this zone, I plan to gradually deploy capital into NiftyBees, MidcapBees & Smallcap ETFs, preparing for the next leg toward new ATHs.
BankNifty
BankNifty closed at 57876, holding firm above the crucial 57600 support.
Bullish Above 57900:
Targets → 58249 / 58469 / 58577 / 58900
Risk Below 57450 (2-day close):
Possible decline toward 56800
BankNifty continues to act as a trend anchor for Nifty, so levels here remain important.
S&P 500
S&P500 ended at 6728, down ~110 points but still forming a potential bullish W-pattern on the weekly chart.
Bullish Continuation:
> 6780 daily close or
> 6920 breakout
→ Targets: 6959 (Fib) / 7122
Risk Trigger:
Monthly low 6550 is key structural support
Break below could lead to 6225 / 6013
(Watch Fed tone, yields & VIX alongside price action)
🎯 Key Takeaways
Hammer at support — wait for confirmation above 25600
Buy-on-dip zone: 25150–25200 (gradual allocation, not aggressive)
BankNifty strength above 57900 crucial for momentum
S&P500 near breakout zone — global cues still supportive
Next week may define whether bulls defend key supports or we get a deeper correction before the next leg up.
S&P 500 Predict the next waveHello everyone, I hope you are all well.
I wanted to share my prediction for the next wave of the S&P 500 index. It's as shown in the chart
The chart is on the weekly timeframe. I expect the decline to last for a period of time that could reach 6 months or more
This is not investment advice; please take full responsibility for your buying and selling decisions.
Warning: Be careful not to use this idea with leverage, as you could lose all your money
S&P500: Rebound S&P 500 futures managed to stage a modest rebound in yesterday’s session and are now showing renewed upward momentum. In our primary scenario, we expect magenta wave (5) to continue climbing and to ultimately mark a final high that completes the larger blue wave (III). Afterward, we anticipate a corrective phase via magenta wave (A), which should pull the index toward support at 6,371 points. However, if prices drop directly below the 6,371 points support, our alternative scenario will come into play. In that case, the alternative wave alt.(4) would likely extend further downward, finding its low within the magenta alternative Target Zone between 6,055 and 5,822 points.
The Scariest Divergence In the MarketThe Scariest Divergence In the Market
If you look at the chart, you’ll see the TVC:SPX (candles) and U.S. job openings (in blue) plotted together since 2001.
Historically, these two metrics have been highly correlated , both rising and falling almost in sync as the economy expanded or contracted.
But something changed dramatically in November 2022.
That’s when ChatGPT went live, marking the start of the AI boom that has reshaped entire industries and mindsets. From that point on, we can see a massive divergence, the kind we’ve never seen before.
While job openings have kept declining steadily, the market has rallied like never before. This is not logical from a historical point of view.
🤖 Is AI Replacing Workers?
One possible explanation is that the market sees AI as a reason for optimism:
“If companies can do more with less labor, that means higher margins and better efficiency.”
So, fewer job openings might not scare investors anymore, it could even be seen as a sign of progress.
But that raises two key questions:
Is AI really replacing workers ?
If so, what happens to the broader economy and ?
📊 What the Data Says So Far
Surprisingly, unemployment in the U.S. has increased only slightly since AI went mainstream.
It’s a slow, healthy rise not a surge. So i t doesn’t seem like AI is replacing workers at scale just yet.
That’s good news in one sense, if unemployment remains low, consumer demand stays healthy, and the economy keeps running.
However, it also means that companies’ fixed costs haven’t really improved, and their productivity gains from AI are still very moderate , far from the exponential growth that the market seems to be pricing in.
💡 My current View
From my perspective, this chart makes one thing very clear.
The benefits of AI , as of today, are still much smaller than what the market is assuming.
Yes, AI will improve margins and efficiency over time. But if everyone implements it, competition will eventually push prices down again, and margins with them. The very same than internet with the online sales.
The real challenge won’t be for companies that adopt AI, but for those that don’t adapt fast enough , or for those that overspend on AI tools that fail to deliver meaningful returns.
☄️Some AI Stocks Are Starting to Show Doubt
Several major AI-related stocks are also showing concerning patterns . We don’t have confirmation yet , but it’s time to stay alert and be prepared in case the market starts breaking key support levels among the main players.
And the main index, S&P 500 is still in the bull zone but are key levels to watch closely:
🤔 What Do You Think?
Is AI truly transforming company performance as fast as investors believe?
Or are we witnessing a global over-excitement where expectations are running far ahead of reality?
