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SPX (S&P 500 Index)

S 08/20 — Short bias below, Key Levels (watch FOMC minutes)Overview Higher-timeframe trend has shifted lower. After failing at ~6,476, price broke the 6,446 shelf and printed a new low near 6,419 with expanding volume. As long as we remain below 6,463, I keep a short bias and will fade bounces into supply. Key Levels • Line-in-the-sand: 6,463 • Resistance / Sell zones: 6,433–6,436, 6,445–6,447, 6,469–6,471, 6,476 • Supports / downside magnets: 6,419–6,418, 6,406–6,403, 6,392–6,388, 6,382–6,376 Primary Plan — Bearish continuation • Prefer selling failed retests into 6,433–6,436 or 6,445–6,447. • Targets: first back to 6,419–6,418, then 6,406–6,403, and if momentum persists 6,392–6,388 / 6,382–6,376. • Confirmation I want to see: intraday rejection wicks at the zone, momentum rolling over, and sellers stepping back in. Alternative — Breakdown • If price accepts below 6,418, I’ll look for continuation toward 6,403, then 6,392 / 6,376. Invalidation / Neutralization • Reclaiming 6,463 neutralizes the immediate short bias. • Acceptance ≥ 6,471–6,476 opens squeeze risk toward 6,491 / 6,500; I’d stand aside on shorts until structure turns back down. Event Risk (ET) — Wed 08/20 • 07:00 MBA Mortgage Applications • 10:30 EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report • 13:00 U.S. 20-Year Treasury Auction • 14:00 FOMC Minutes (Jul meeting) Note: Expect headline-driven volatility around 14:00—I avoid initiating new positions into the release. Posting Notes This idea reflects levels visible on 1D/4H/1H (with 30m/15m for execution). I’ll update intraday if acceptance/rejection flips at the zones.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by MyAlgoIndex
US500 – Has the Correction Started?1. What Happened Yesterday Yesterday, US500 dropped around 1%, signaling that a meaningful correction could be starting. Unlike Nasdaq, which already broke under two key support levels, here the price is still above the trendline that began back at the end of May, when the index broke through the important 5800 resistance. The rise since April has been huge and not fundamentally justified, making the index vulnerable to a reversal towards more sustainable levels. ________________________________________ 2. Key Question Has the correction really started, or will we first see another spike before the drop? ________________________________________ 3. Why More Downside is Likely • Trendline vulnerability: A break under 6380 could trigger acceleration to the downside. • First bear target: 6100, the old ATH. • Bigger picture: A move under 6000 remains likely, with 5800 as a longer-term destination. • Risk/reward setup: Any spike higher should be seen as a selling opportunity. Around 6500 would be ideal to short. ________________________________________ 4. Trading Plan • Sell spikes, especially near 6500). • Watch 6380 – break here could open the way towards 6100. • Medium/long term bias: Bearish, with more room down than up. ________________________________________ 5. Final Note 🚀 The market must confirm, but the strategy is clear: don’t chase the bounce, sell the strength and ride the correction. Disclosure: I am part of TradeNation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
TRADENATION:US500Short
by Mihai_Iacob
5
Why The Bubble Theory Makes No SenseIt seems like every other week with tech stocks making new all time highs, there is a constant chatter of claiming we're in a bubble. One of the classic signs of a bubble, is excessive leverage betting on ever higher returns. This is a chart of securities margin loans provided by the Fed updated quarterly. As you can see since the 2008 financial crisis speculators have been very conservative with their use of leverage. It's almost like 2008 scared people so badly people more than a decade later are still behaving financially conservative. Some of the rational for the talk of a bubble is historically high PE ratios, but this can be explained by massive reinvestments into AI infrastructure by the biggest tech companies. The more investments they make the higher the PE ratios look. The key ingredient of a bubble is leverage and besides the small spike of it post-covid, there is no sign of excessive speculation. Remember tech stocks are absolutely going to have a pullback likely next year or 2027, but the fear of a dot-com era bubble is just simply unfounded.
FRED:BOGZ1FL663067003QLong
by bwy
S&P500 Can the 4H MA50 save the day again?The S&P500 index (SPX) is on a short-term pull-back following the new All Time High (ATH) on August 15 of the 3-month Channel Up. It is just above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been the most common level of Support throughout this pattern, before the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), which formed its last Higher Low. As a result, as long as it holds, it is more likely to see a continuation of the Bullish Leg that started on the 4H MA200 bounce (August 01). The previous Bullish Leg peaked on a +8.80% rise, so that gives us a medium-term Target of 6750. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TRADENATION:US500Long
by TradingShot
1
ES Analyses 08/19 Rejection short from 6479–6485 (OB + PDH)Fundamentals (what can move ES) • 08:30 ET – U.S. New Residential Construction (Housing Starts/Permits). First move risk right at the print; can nudge yields and risk appetite. We’ll let the initial spike settle and then act on the HTF levels below.  ⸻ Key levels from your charts Numbers rounded to the quarter where needed. • PDH: 6484.25 • PDL: 6456.00 • ONH: 6475.25 • ONL: 6462.00 • RTH VWAP (today): 6466.50 • PMH / Asia H cluster: 6470.5–6471.75 • 30-min supply / OB: 6479–6485 (overlaps PDH) • Liquidity/defense zone (“strong low”/Mon swing): 6452–6456 Think of 6468–6472 as the intraday “equilibrium” band we’ve been ping-ponging around; acceptance away from this band is what should start the 15+ pt drive. Context: We press into the 30-min supply shelf that capped NYPM today. Trigger: Price trades 6479–6485, stalls (wicks/absorption on Bookmap, cumulative delta fails to make new highs), then reclaims below 6471–6472 (PMH area). Entry style: Stop-market on the reclaim or limit into a micro pullback after the failed pop. Invalidation: Above 6486.50 (clear acceptance above PDH/supply). Targets: 6468–6470 (back to equilibrium), 6462 (ONL), 6456 (PDL / strong-low). From ~6482 to 6467 = 15 pts; stretch to 6456 = 26 pts. Order-flow tells: Offers replenish 6480–6485; iceberg/absorption on up-ticks; delta divergence into the level. Timing 08:30 ET data: stand aside for the first 2–5 minutes; let the impulse show its hand, then look for our triggers. Federal Reserve Bank of New York NY AM window: 09:45–11:30 ET. NY PM window: 13:30–15:30 ET (if morning doesn’t give clean structure).
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by MyAlgoIndex
Day 11 — Trading Only S&P Futures — Mixed Signals, +$199Welcome to Day 11 of Trading Only S&P Futures! Today was all about adapting and not forcing trades. I’ve noticed I usually perform best later in the day, so I’ve been starting with smaller contracts to warm up. Profits started rolling in, but things felt different — market makers kept flipping structure and trying to trap traders. I was expecting more downside, but once I saw the MM games, I decided to protect profits and lock in +$199.20 instead of being greedy. 📰 News Highlights STOCKS END MOSTLY FLAT TO START THE WEEK AS INVESTORS LOOK AHEAD TO POWELL SPEECH, RETAIL EARNINGS 🔔 VX Algo Signals (9:30am – 2pm EST) 7:01 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! 9:58 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! 9:58 AM VXAlgo ES X3DD Sell Signal 11:30 AM VXAlgo NQ X1DD Sell Signal 12:30 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! 12:50 PM VXAlgo NQ X1DD Sell Signal 2:00 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! 🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow Above 6460 = Remain Bullish Below 6450 = Bearish
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
SPX: absorbed tariffsThe US equity markets continue to be supported by positive market sentiment. The closely watched macro data during the previous week was July inflation, which was 0,2% for the month and fully in line with market estimates. It seems that for the moment, the US economy is ready to absorb the burden of increased trade tariffs and keep inflation within lower levels without too much oscillation. Such development is increasing market expectations that the Fed might cut interest rates in September. Although the index closed the week lower, still, during the week, the S&P 500 reached another all time highest level at 6.475 on Wednesday. The index closed the week at 6.449 on Friday. Analysts are noting that this correction occurred due to weaker consumer sentiment as posted by the University of Michigan on Friday. At the same time, inflation expectations for this year and for the period of next five years have modestly increased. Considering a new ATH, some profit taking might occur during the week ahead, which could impact modest correction in index. However, considering continuous relatively stable inflation and strong demand posted during July, despite trade tariffs, analysts are noting that the market optimism will continue. For the week ahead, it should be also considered that a yearly Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium will be held 21-23 August, where Fed Chair Powell is expected to hold a speech. This event is both well covered by the media and closely watched by investors, looking for an indication of a potential future move on a monetary policy side.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
ES (S&P 500 Futures) - Week Plan Aug 18–22Context (W/D/4H/1H/30M): ES is consolidating just under 6,500. Price is boxed roughly 6,466 ↔ 6,504/12 with a cluster of highs above and recurring demand tests below. Key Levels (zones, not single ticks): Resistance: 6,504–6,512 (near-term lid). Above that: 6,520–6,550 (weekly supply/“weak high”). Decision level: 6,492–6,495 (where control often flips intraday). Supports: 6,464–6,466 (first support) → 6,436–6,440 → 6,380–6,395 (deeper support). How to read it: Bull path: A firm break and hold above 6,504 favors a push toward 6,520 → 6,535 → 6,550. Bear path: Failure at 6,495 or a clean break below 6,464 opens 6,440 → 6,390. If price stays between 6,466 and 6,504, expect range behavior until a catalyst pushes it out. Scenarios (next week): Range continues: Chop between 6,466–6,512 until mid-week events. Upside break: Hold above 6,504 → test 6,520–6,550 (watch for reaction there). Downside break: Lose 6,464 with momentum → 6,440, then 6,390 if pressure persists. Key events (ET): Wed: Federal Reserve meeting minutes (afternoon). Thu: Weekly claims; flash PMIs; existing home sales (morning block). Thu–Sat: Jackson Hole economic symposium (watch for policy remarks). Notes: Levels are zones and may see initial reactions before acceptance or rejection. This post is for market commentary/education only.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
Technical Analysis for US500 (S&P 500)Closing Price: 6447.8 (16th Aug 2025, 12:50 PM UTC+4) Analysis Methods: Japanese Candlesticks, Harmonic Patterns (ABCD, M/W), Elliott Wave, Wyckoff, Gann Theory (Time/Square of 9/Angles), Ichimoku, RSI, Bollinger Bands, VWAP, Moving Averages (MA/EMA/SMA/WMA). --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1. Long-Term Trend (Weekly/Monthly) Elliott Wave: US500 is in Wave 5 of a bull cycle (Wave 3 peak: 6500, Wave 4 dip to 6200). Target: 6600–6700 (1.618 extension of Wave 1). Gann Price Forecasting: Square of 9: √6447.8 ≈ 80.30 → Key resistance: 81² = 6561, support: 80² = 6400. Break above 6561 targets 6724 (82²). Ichimoku (Monthly): Tenkan/Kijun: Bullish crossover (Tenkan: 6300 > Kijun: 6200). Cloud: Price above Senkou Span (6100–6250) – bullish structure. Moving Averages: Weekly SMA(200): 6100 (major support). Swing Outlook: Bullish but extended. Final Wave 5 targets 6600–6700. 2. Medium-Term Swing (4H/Daily) Harmonic Patterns: Bearish ABCD on Daily: A: 6500 → B: 6350 → C: 6450 → D: 6470–6490 (1.272 BC extension). Bullish Gartley (M Pattern) near 6350 (0.786 XA retracement). Wyckoff Phase: Distribution above 6450: Upthrust at 6470 (16th Aug) on fading volume. Lack of demand above 6460. Gann Theory: Time Window: Aug 19–22 (Square of 9 reversal cluster). Price-Time Squaring: 6447.8 aligns with Aug 16 – consolidation likely. Gann Angle: 1x1 support at 6420. Indicators: RSI(14) + Bollinger Bands (Daily): RSI: 66 (neutral-bullish). Price hugging upper BB(20,2) at 6475 – band expansion signals volatility. VWAP (Weekly): 6380 (swing support). Swing Trade Setup: Short near 6470–6490 → Target 6400. Stop-loss: 6520. Long near 6350 → Target 6500. Stop-loss: 6300. 3. Intraday Outlook (5M–4H) Key Levels: Resistance: 6460 (Gann 1x1), 6475 (daily high), 6490 (ABCD target). Support: 6440 (VWAP), 6430 (Ichimoku cloud), 6420 (Gann angle). Indicators: Ichimoku (1H): Tenkan: 6445, Kijun: 6435 → Price above both (weak bullish). Cloud: Thin bullish (6425–6435) – intraday support. RSI + Bollinger Bands (1H): RSI(14): 59 (neutral). Price testing mid-BB(20,2) at 6445 – break below signals bearish shift. VWAP + MAs: VWAP: 6442 (intraday pivot). EMA(20): 6448 (resistance). Candlestick Patterns: 4H Bearish Engulfing at 6465 → Reversal signal. 1H Evening Star at 6460 → Confirms weakness. Gann Intraday Squaring: Time Cycle: 14:00–16:00 UTC+4 (NY open) for volatility. Price Harmony: Close below 6445 targets 6430 → 6420. Intraday Trade Plan: Sell below 6445 → Target 6430 (VWAP) → 6420 (Gann support). Buy above 6465 only if RSI <65 → Target 6475. Stop-Loss: 10–15 points. Summary of Key Signals Time Frame Bias Entry Target Stop-Loss Intraday Bearish <6445 6440-6445 6420-6430 6455 Swing Bullish 6350-6370 6450-6500 6300 Swing Bearish 6470-6485 6400-6420 6520 Critical Events: Gann Reversal Window: Aug 19–22 (watch for Fed minutes/Nvidia earnings). Daily Close >6500 invalidates bearish patterns and targets 6561. Risk Note: US500 is highly sensitive to tech earnings and Fed policy. Use tight stops during events. Disclaimer: Technical analysis reflects historical patterns, not guarantees. Fundamental catalysts can override signals. Always use risk management. For those interested in further developing their trading skills based on these types of analyses, consider exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya dot Trade .( world wide web shunya dot trade ) I welcome your feedback on this analysis, as it will inform and enhance my future work. Regards, Shunya.Trade world wide web shunya dot trade ⚠️ Disclaimer: This post is educational content and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed here are based on technical analysis and are shared solely for informational purposes. The stock market is subject to risks, including capital loss, and readers should exercise due diligence before investing. We do not take responsibility for decisions made based on this content. Consult a certified financial advisor for personalized guidance.
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by sunya
NAS100 4H Channel: Bounce or Breakdown?NASDAQ100 has been trending within a clean ascending channel on the 4H timeframe. We’re now sitting at a crucial decision point — the midline and horizontal support around 23,670. This zone has historically acted as a strong S/R pivot. If price holds, we could see another bullish bounce toward 24,000+. But if it breaks and closes below, we may get a clean drop toward the bottom of the channel — with 23,200 and 22,663 as targets. Plan: • Wait for a 4H close above or below the 23,670 level • Bullish scenario: Bounce toward upper channel (~24,300) • Bearish scenario: Drop to lower channel boundary with incremental TP levels Structure: • 4H rising channel structure still intact • Price testing midline zone • Horizontal level at ~23,670 adds confluence • No confirmed break of channel yet Key Zones: • Support: 23,670 (midline + structure support) • Bullish flip zone: 23,967 • Bearish continuation zones: ‣ 23,200 ‣ 22,994 ‣ 22,663
ICMARKETS:USTEC
by AutoMarkets
Day 10 — Trading Only S&P Futures | $200+ Goal HitWelcome to Day 10 of Trading Only S&P Futures! After waking up super early and not getting back to sleep, I spent most of my morning going through 13F filings to see where hedge funds are putting their money. The trading day started strong — market structure flipped bearish and price action followed perfectly. I missed the exact market bottom by just 2 points, but patience paid off. I eventually caught the reversal back to the 5-min MOB and closed the day with a +212.54 gain — hitting the $200 daily goal I’ve been aiming for all week. 📈 What you’ll learn How to stay patient after missing a perfect entry Using market structure & MOB zones together Why having a daily profit target helps discipline Combining trading with ongoing market research ⏰ Timestamps 0:00 — Intro & Day 10 Recap 0:50 — Early Start & Hedge Fund 13F Research 1:40 — Market Structure Sets the Tone 2:10 — Missing the Bottom by 2 Points 3:00 — Catching the Reversal at 5-min MOB 4:00 — Key Levels for Tomorrow 4:30 — Closing Thoughts 📰 News Highlights FED CHAIR CANDIDATE MARC SUMERLIN SUPPORTS 50BPS RATE CUT DUE TO INVERSION OF CURVE 🔔 VX Algo Signals (9:30am – 2pm EST) 8:30 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! 9:39 AM VXAlgo Market Structure flipped bearish - 9:31 9:40 AM VXAlgo NQ X1DD Sell Signal 11:00 AM VXAlgo NQ X1DD Sell Signal 12:40 PM VXAlgo NQ X1DD Sell Signal 12:50 PM VXAlgo NQ X3 Buy Signal 1:30 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! 🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow Above 6460 = Remain Bullish Below 6440 = Bearish
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
SPX500 | Consolidation at Record Highs – Key Pivot 6468S&P 500 at Record Highs on September Rate Cut Hopes Futures tracking the S&P 500 and Nasdaq held at record highs on Wednesday, supported by growing expectations that the Federal Reserve could resume its monetary policy easing cycle next month. Technical Outlook: The price is expected to consolidate between 6468 and 6425 until a breakout occurs. Stability below 6468 would favor a bearish move toward 6425. A 1H close above 6468 could push the price higher toward 6528. Pivot: 6468 Support: 6437, 6425, 6389 Resistance: 6490, 6500, 6528
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi
1
"US500 BREAKOUT – TIME TO LOAD LIMIT ORDERS FOR THE PUMP?"🔥🦹‍♂️ "SPX500 BANK HEIST – LAYERED BULL RAID IN PROGRESS!" 💰📈 (Thief Trader’s Multi-Limit Order Bullish Ambush – No Weak Hands Allowed) 📍 ASSET: US500 / SPX500 (S&P 500 INDEX) 🎯 HEIST PLAN: BULLISH BREAKOUT 💣 ENTRY: ANY PRICE LEVEL (Thieves use Layered Limit Orders – adapt like a pro!) 🔫 SAMPLE LAYERS: (Scale in like a boss!) BUY LIMIT LAYER 1: 6475.00 BUY LIMIT LAYER 2: 6460.00 BUY LIMIT LAYER 3: 6440.00 (Add more layers if needed – flexibility is key!) 🛑 STOP LOSS: 6400.00 (Thief’s Emergency Exit – adjust based on your risk!) 🎯 TARGET: 6600.00 (First profit zone – trail or take gains!) 🦹‍♂️ THIEF TRADER’S MASTER PLAN: "We don’t ask for permission – we take profits." 🔹 ENTRY TACTICS: Use multiple limit orders (LAYERED STRATEGY) – like planting timed explosives at key levels. No panic entries – thieves strike with precision, not emotion. DCA if needed – but keep bullets for the real move. 🔹 STOP LOSS RULES: 6400 = Danger Zone – if price breaks, abort mission & regroup. SL too tight? You’ll get stopped out by market noise. SL too wide? You’ll bleed. Find balance. 🔹 TAKE PROFIT STRATEGY: First TP @ 6600 – secure partial profits. Let runners ride with trailing stop – or full exit if momentum fades. 🚨 THIEF’S GOLDEN RULES: ✅ Only LONG – no revenge shorts, no greed traps. ✅ Trade in SILENCE – avoid high-impact news (CPI, NFP, Fed). ✅ Risk management = Survival – don’t blow your account on one play. ✅ BOOST & SHARE – if this plan helps, spread the word! 📢 FINAL WARNING: "This is not financial advice – it’s a thief’s blueprint. Plan your escape before entry. Market heists require discipline." 💬 COMMENT "ROBBING SPX" if you’re in! 🔥 LIKE & BOOST if you ride with the Thief Trader crew! 🦹‍♂️ THIEF TRADER OUT. 💸 STEAL SMART. GET RICH. REPEAT.
BLACKBULL:SPX500Long
by The-Thief
Proprietary SupportIn this slowly but continuously updating idea I will be posting an interesting way to analyze charts. It is something old but also new, like duality. We all know that the stock market continuously grows. But it doesn't always grow. For markets lie between worlds. The reasonable and the unreasonable. The free choice and the illusion of free choice. Let me explain... In micro scale, we seem to believe that the markets follow the "support / resistance" rule. An (over)simplification necessary for us to comprehend the infinities of the quantum world. There are lots of stories told in the picture above... - Prices are chaotic and completely incomprehensible. - We have to smooth-out to get a clearer picture. - Is Support / Resistance real or a result of crowd psychology? - At what point horizontal action "ceases" to exist and "trend" takes over? Either we call it a "power law" or a Lin-log regression, charts in macro scale seem to trend. So prices sometimes move with one "law" (support) and sometimes with another (trend). Do we remember / know what is the foundation of price movement? A century ago, Wyckoff came up with his theory of accumulation and distribution. We can safely say that his research was not a result of crowd psychology. He backtested countless price charts, in a period (1920s) when trading was purely psychological, with traders having little experience to modern ideas of "trend", "support" etc. Just like the new modern technology design principles, ahem aapl, technological information lies inside bubbles. Transparent but distorted. Clear but fuzzy. Duality once again. Modern trading is a self sustaining loop. The "freedom" of our actions is trapped inside a bubble. Most of us "trade" with similar strategies, and end up in the mass pool of barely-profitable-investors. Unconventional strategists like Hedge Funds must have "alien" technology to overcome such psychological traps. Back to the main chart: It is one attempt to bring a new dimension to chart analysis. To merge these two worlds of "support" and "trend". I cannot possibly reach the expertise of massive corporations, but I can bodge something out, and I did. Price charts can be analyzed with unconventional / proprietary methods to conclude into the chart above. It is a little rough but bear with me. I had to perform complex calculations which I couldn't compile into a Pine Indicator. There is a reason that the top lines are not exactly straight. Their calculations depend on a blend between micro and macro movements. A couple of interesting charts to conclude the first update of this idea: BTC Daily BTC Weekly A Perfect Fractal. I hate bubbles. Mental ones, Soapy ones, Stock ones and UI ones. - An angry Father Grigori.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by akikostas
3
Tomorrow’s Playbook: Levels, News Bias & Scenarios 08/14/2025Summary: Bias = Neutral→Bullish while above 6,464–6,466 and the 15m 200-EMA (6,459). A clean 5m/15m acceptance above 6,491/6,500 favors continuation; otherwise expect a data-driven sweep into 6,475–6,468 to test demand. Scenarios & Triggers (rule-based) 1) Continuation breakout • Trigger: 5m close > 6,491 → probe 6,496–6,500. • Validation: 15m acceptance above 6,500 (no immediate rejection). • Targets: 6,502–6,505 first; stretch 6,512/6,520 if momentum persists. • Management: If price reclaims 6,491 from above after a retest, momentum likely intact. 2) Rotation to demand (buy-the-dip if structure holds) • Trigger: Rejection at 6,489–6,491 with 5m close back inside range. • Path: 6,482 → 6,475.5 → 6,468; watch order-flow absorption or an FVG fill inside 6,464–6,466. • Validation: Bullish 5m close from the box and 15m structure holds above 6,459. • Targets on bounce: Return to 6,489–6,491, then 6,496–6,500. 3) Bearish flip (lower-probability without data shock) • Trigger (strict): 15m bearish confirmation and sustained acceptance below 6,459 (15m 200-EMA). • Path: Open the door to a deeper mean-reversion leg toward prior breakout bases (next map would be built after the break). • Note: No shorts without that 15m confirmation per protocol. Educational only — not financial advice.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for August 14, 2025 🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for August 14, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 📉 CPI cooldown keeps cut odds alive — July CPI held at +0.2% m/m (2.8% y/y); Core +0.3% m/m (3.1% y/y) heading into today’s PPI. Watch $SPY/ SP:SPX vs TVC:DXY and NASDAQ:TLT for inflation momentum cues. 🤝 Tariff truce extended 90 days — U.S.–China pause now runs through Nov 10, removing near-term trade shock risk for NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:AMD NASDAQ:AAPL and other SP:SPX heavyweights. 🇨🇳 China credit contraction — July new bank loans fell for the first time in 20 years, signaling weak demand and adding a global growth headwind to the tape. 📊 Key Data Releases & Events (ET) 📊 📅 Thu, Aug 14 • 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (week ending Aug 9) • 8:30 AM — PPI (July) — Headline & Core • 2:00 PM — Richmond Fed’s Tom Barkin speaks ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #CPI #PPI #Fed #SPY #SPX #DXY #TLT
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
S&P 500 All Round Analysis - S&P 500 Created HistoryTechnical Summary: The primary trend of the S&P 500 is bullish. On the 4H chart, the prices are trending bullish in an ascending channel formation. Prices are rising after reflecting from the lower trendline of the channel on Monday. The prices rose to an all-time high of 6445.75 after accepting support at the fib extension 0.382 at 6402.4. If prices successfully breach the immediate resistance at fib extension 0.50 at 6460.5, then it may rise to the far resistance zone between 6500 - 6518 (fib extension 0.618). Descriptive Analysis: The S&P 500 notched a record close on Tuesday after consumer prices rose by less than expected in July, increasing the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates next month. Data-related Projection: In the absence of key data releases today, market focus has shifted to tomorrow’s U.S. PPI report. U.S. stock markets are being underpinned by bullish sentiment, which is fueled by expectations of future rate cuts, possibly in the September Fed meeting. Indicator Interpretation: The prices are trending higher in the buying zone of the technical indicators - above the middle Bollinger band and the mid-50 level of RSI. ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO Technical Confirmation: If the index fails to rise above fib extension 0.50 at 6460.5 and sustain, but falls below fib extension 0.382 at 6402.4, then further bearishness can be expected. Facts & Figures: The S&P 500 is a very well-known index of large-cap US stocks, covering about 75% of all publicly traded US stocks. It comprises 505 stocks of 500 companies selected by a committee using 8 criteria. Daily Pivot: 6420 (CMP: 6445.75, which is trading above the pivot level while writing the report).
TVC:SPX
by Nadia_farhat
From FOMO to Game Over: The Witch’s Market ProphecyPolitics and market forces are cooking the soup too hot, and greed is on the menu. Investors, funds, and retail traders are ignoring the signs — and just like in the Wild West, only the weapons have changed: stocks, futures, and options. Today, we’ll peek over the witch’s shoulder to see what she sees in the chart’s shadows. The Setup This chart shows the market reaching the U-MLH (Upper Median Line Parallel) for the third time. Even this week, the greedy market is nibbling at that level, trying to chew its way higher. The question: does it break through — or break down? Scenarios (0) → Price touches the U-MLH for the third time. Historically, repeated touches can lead to either an explosive breakout or a sharp reversal. (2) → A momentum kick, driven by FOMO, could push price up to the Warning 1/4 line. This would be the bulls’ dream run. (3) → The market reaches the next pitchfork line/deviation — because that’s what markets do. After that? Only the market gods know. (4) → Price fails to reach WL1 (Warning Line 1), triggering a Hagopian. This typically signals a failed breakout and a likely pullback. Key question: Will U-MLH hold as support? If not, expect a quick test/retest from below… then it’s Game Over. (5) → In 80% of cases, the centerline gets tagged as Profit Target 1. That could be the “logical” next stop. (6) → L-MLH (Lower Median Line Parallel) — the panic zone. This is when fear takes over, selling accelerates, and the market feels like the fan just got hit. Final Word Whatever happens next, the witch doesn’t care — she’ll be riding her broom into the moonrise, leaving the rest of us to trade the chaos. #SPX500 #NASDAQ100 #TechnicalAnalysis #Pitchfork #Futures #Options #MarketOutlook #SwingTrading #FOMO
AMEX:SPY
by Tr8dingN3rd
Are We Replaying the Dot Com Era?I’m completely unbiased here - more so curious - but today’s S&P 500 setup looks eerily similar to the late 1990s. In 1996 and 1997, the index posted back-to-back gains of over 20%, just as 2023 and 2024 have done. Then, in 1998, we saw a sharp 20% pullback - much like the one we’ve had in April of 2025. If you overlay that late-’90s fractal on today’s chart, the trajectory points to an S&P 500 level near 8,200 by early 2027. The bullish case practically writes itself: strong GDP growth, resilient corporate earnings, AI-driven productivity gains, a still-accommodative liquidity backdrop, and investors willing to pay up for growth narratives—just as they did in the dot-com era. The “there is no alternative” (TINA) mentality toward equities was alive then, and it’s alive now. If the trend holds, the next couple of years could deliver staggering upside. That said, it’s purely an observation - not a prediction. A decisive break below the key rising support trendlines would negate this bullish scenario and shift me to a cautious or neutral stance. Until then, the pattern is worth keeping an eye on.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jstrasburger
S&P500 Channel Up going straight to 6670.The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a 3-month Channel Up since the May 12 candle. All of this time, it has been supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and as long as it holds, the new Bullish Leg is expected. The last two rose by +7.06%, and ahead of a new 1D MACD Bullish Cross, that gives us a medium-term Target of 6670. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TRADENATION:US500FULong
by TradingShot