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SPX (S&P 500 Index)

ES (SPX, SPY) Analyses, Key Zones, Setups Fri (Oct 10)Session Roadmap (London → NY) London (02:00–05:00 ET): Expect balance 6792–6807. A sustained London hold above 6802–6805 increases odds of a pre-NY probe into 6809–6812. A London slip below 6784.5 shifts risk to a VWAP check 6777–6780 and potentially 6766–6761 into NY AM. NY AM (09:30–11:00): Two-way opening likely unless 6812 converts rapidly; watch 9:45–10:05 for the sentiment print impulse. NY PM (13:30–16:00): If morning sets a trend, expect continuation toward RE1/RE2; otherwise back-to-value rotations inside 6780–6795. TIER-1 (A++) — Breakout LONG above PDH/ONH Trigger: 15m full-body close above 6810–6812, then a 5m hold/re-close with HLs. Entry: 6810.75–6812.25 on the first clean retest/hold. Invalidation (hard SL): 6804.75 (below retest & today’s open region). TPs: TP1 6821.75 (RE1), TP2 6834.00, TP3 6841.25. TIER-1 (A++) — Breakdown SHORT through Y-VAL/PDL Trigger: 15m full-body close below 6766.5 and then 6760.75, with a 5m retest 6764–6766 that fails. Entry: 6764.00–6766.00 on the rejection. Invalidation (hard SL): 6772.50 (back above value shelf). TPs: TP1 6748.50, TP2 6736.50, TP3 6729.00. TIER-2 (A+ Bounce) — Quick-reclaim LONG at Value Shelf Trigger: Fast flush into 6777–6780 with a 1m reclaim of 6780.5 and 5m re-close above. Entry: 6778.00–6780.50 after the reclaim. SL: 6771.25. TPs: TP1 6792.75 (Asia H pivot), TP2 6805.50 (today’s open/nearby shelf), runner eye 6810–6812 if momentum. TIER-3 (A Bounce) — Exhaustion-flush LONG at PDL Trigger: Liquidity sweep 6758–6752 that reclaims 6761 on 1m and 5m holds. Entry: 6754–6756 on the reclaim. SL: 6750.75. TPs: TP1 6777.75 (VWAP), TP2 6789–6792 (pivot band). === Price-Path Scenarios (most to least likely) Balance → Break Probe: Early churn inside 6792–6807; successful lift through 6810–6812 post-10:00 unlocks 6821.75 (RE1). Fade to Value: Early rejection at 6809–6812 leads to a drift back into 6784/80 → 6777.75; buyers defend value and keep the range intact. Bear Extension (data-shock needed): Clean 15m close below 6766.5/6760.75 opens 6748.50 with potential follow-through to 6736.50.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
2
Day 48 — Trading Only S&P Futures | Risk Down, Focus UpRecap & Trades Day 48 — I slept 10 hours to recover from the flu, woke up a bit foggy, and just eased into the day. Took my time reviewing market structure and waited for clean confirmation before taking any trades. The 11:40 VXAlgo DD Sell Signal lined up perfectly with the bearish flip and 10-min MOB zone — I shorted the recovery and let the market do the work. Missed a few bottom orders, but overall execution was clean and controlled. Lesson & Mindset The key lesson today: when you’re on a hot streak, the best move isn’t to press harder — it’s to protect the gains. That’s why I’m reducing my position size for the next few sessions. This isn’t about making more; it’s about keeping what I’ve earned. News & Levels Headline: The IRS plans to furlough 34,000 employees as the U.S. government shutdown continues — something to keep an eye on for market volatility. Tomorrow’s levels: Above 6785 bullish, below 6765 bearish.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by DiYWALLST
1
ES (SPX, SPY) Analyses, Key Zones, Setups for Thu, Oct 9Market Drivers (ET) • 08:30 — Fed Chair Powell: pre-recorded welcoming remarks at the Community Bank Conference. risk flag • 08:30 — Initial Jobless Claims: suspended while the federal government remains shut down; will publish only if funding is restored before release time. • 08:35 — Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman: opening remarks (same conference). • 09:45 — Treasury Sec. Bessent remarks & fireside chat (conference item; headline risk is modest). • 10:30 — EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage (standard Thursday slot). • 11:30 — Treasury 4- & 8-week bill auctions (regular Thursday bills). • 13:00 — Treasury 30-Year Bond (reopening) auction. • All day: Other conference sessions (payments, community-bank panels; closing remarks late afternoon) may generate minor tape headlines. A++ Setups (NY kill-zones: 09:30–11:00 & 13:30–16:00) 1) Breakout Continuation LONG (Tier-1 A++) — 6,809 unlocks Trigger: 15m full-body close above 6,809, then 5m holds a retest 6,803–6,806 and re-closes up. Entry: 1m higher-low on the retest hold. Invalidation: Hard SL just below the 15m trigger-wick (±0.25–0.50 pts). Targets: TP1 6,828–6,832, TP2 6,844–6,848, stretch 6,895± if trend day forms. 2) Rejection SHORT (Tier-1 A++) — Fail at 6,803–6,809 Trigger: Sweep/fail above 6,803–6,809 → 15m closes back inside ≤6,803; 5m forms a lower-high and re-closes down. Entry: 1m LH after the 5m re-close. Invalidation: Hard SL a tick beyond the rejection wick. Targets: TP1 6,789, TP2 6,766–6,759, stretch 6,738–6,733. Market Update and Trading Insight Overnight Analysis: As we enter the London session, we should expect a balanced trading range between 6,789 and 6,806. If we can hold above 6,797 as we transition into the European market, this may set the stage for a pre-New York move targeting the 6,803 to 6,809 area. Any shallow pullbacks that maintain the 6,797 to 6,799 support level will likely keep the bullish trend intact. 08:30 ET (Powell Speech - Pre-recorded): The potential for significant market movements at this timing appears modest. Since there is no jobless claims data this week, we anticipate that the typical volatility around 08:30 will be lighter than usual. Should Powell's comments come across as neutral, expect trading activity to focus more on market levels and flows rather than on hard data.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
2
2-3% selloff incoming? Down to $651-655? Then BTD to $700+We've finally hit my target of $672 and while I still think we'll get downside after hitting this target, I don't think the sell will be as dramatic (yet). I know everyone got bulled up after the price action today, but I think it's wise to be cautious here. Both the chart and the flows are telling me that we're likely to see a bearish move before we see more upside in markets. I'm not looking for anything crazy, but I think 2-3% down to that $651-655 level is likely. Then I think that will be a dip buying opportunity and that it's likely that many stocks (including SPY) can see new highs. I've marked off new resistance levels should this idea play out. Losing the support levels on the chart would be a caution for lower prices.
AMEX:SPY
by benjihyam
18
ES (SPX, SPY) Futures Analyses, Key Zones, Setups for Wed, Oct 8The E-mini S&P 500 (ES) is currently exhibiting a primary uptrend on the higher timeframes while consolidating just below a significant resistance level between 6,785 and 6,795. As we approach the New York morning session, the prevailing expectation is for a range-to-trend expansion, dependent on whether the 6,758–6,795 range is broken. The 6,785–6,795 zone should be regarded as the immediate focal point for decision-making. Event & Risk Calendar (ET) • 07:00–07:15 — MBA Mortgage Applications (weekly). • 10:30 — EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (standard Wednesday release). • 14:00 — FOMC Minutes (Sept 16–17 meeting). Expect volatility expansion on release. A++ Setups (Tier-1, Level-KZ 15/5/1) 1. Trend-Continuation LONG at R1 break Trigger: 15-minute full-body close above 6,795, 5-minute pullback holds 6,785–6,795, 1-minute higher-low confirms. Entry: 6,788–6,795 on the retest/hold. Invalidation: 15-minute body back below ~6,785. Targets: TP1 6,818–6,825; TP2 6,858–6,866; TP3 6,898–6,905. Risk: Hard SL = relevant 15-minute wick low −0.25–0.50 pts; take 70% at TP1, runner to BE; max 2 attempts per level. 2. Rejection-Fade SHORT at R1 failure Trigger: Probe into 6,785–6,795 fails: 15-minute rejection close back below, 5-minute lower-high forms, 1-minute pullback fails. Entry: 6,785–6,792 on failure. Invalidation: 15-minute body acceptance above ~6,795. Targets: TP1 6,756–6,761; TP2 6,744–6,749; TP3 6,727–6,733. Risk: Same management as Setup 1 (wick-anchored SL; 70/30 at TP1; max 2 attempts).
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
2
The Market Doesn't Care About Your Thesis"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." - John Maynard Keynes A month ago, I wrote about the brutality of trading and introduced a concept I called the "trading pandemic" - when a chain of events clouds judgment, breaks confidence, and brings down even the best traders. Life has a dark sense of humor. Shortly after publishing that post, I found myself living through exactly what I'd described. The Storm That Found Me Last week, I took significant losses. Not from ignorance. Not from recklessness. But from something far more dangerous: the very conviction that makes me a disciplined trader became the weight that pulled me under. My thesis wasn't built on hopium or hunches. It was constructed on macro fundamentals: The Setup: IG:BITCOIN halving cycle suggesting the rally should fade by September TVC:GOLD due for a correction as recession stress builds SP:SPX primed for a rollover amid a macro death cross between inflation ECONOMICS:USINTR and unemployment ECONOMICS:USUR The U.S. government shutdown on October 1st - echoing 2008 crisis conditions And the blackout of key data reinforcing the uncertainty Everything pointed to significant market stress. The fundamentals weren't just bearish - they were screaming. I waited patiently for the setup. I did the analysis. I had conviction backed by historical parallels and macro reality. Then the market did what it does best: it ignored the script and wrote its own story. When the Market Rewrites the Rules Week two of October, IG:BITCOIN didn't just hold - it broke through ATH. TVC:GOLD continued its relentless climb. SP:SPX kept grinding higher with controlled strength that suggested continuation, not exhaustion. Not with the kind of instability you'd expect during a government shutdown. Not with the fear you'd anticipate when economic data goes dark. But with the kind of structural strength that signals something bigger is happening beneath the surface. What I started seeing instead was a completely different story unfolding: Dedollarization accelerating faster than models predicted Sovereigns accumulating TVC:GOLD at record pace Institutional capital flooding IG:BITCOIN breaking cycle theory entirely SP:SPX pricing in policy accommodation before stress even surfaced Assets moving as if they're pricing in a paradigm shift, not a recession The thesis wasn't wrong about stress in the system. It was wrong about how markets would price that stress. Maybe this resolves later and my macro read proves correct on a longer timeframe. Maybe this controlled bull market is just an extended distribution before the real move down. Or maybe - and this is the hardest thing to accept - the market is telling me the playbook changed, and I'm still trading the old game. I expected liquidation, but the market priced transformation. The Paradox of Deep Conviction Here's what last week reminded me: The same deep macro understanding that separates sophisticated traders from noise traders is also the double-edged sword that can cut you down. You don't forget that conviction without risk management is dangerous. You know this. I know this. But when your thesis isn't just technical - when it's built on macro lens, death crosses, historical crisis parallels, cycle theories - conviction doesn't feel like opinion anymore. It feels like inevitability. And that's when you start making exceptions: "The 2008, and year 2000 parallels are undeniable - history doesn't lie" "Government shutdown + data blackout = liquidity stress is coming" "Dedollarization and sovereign gold buying confirms the global system is cracking" " TVC:GOLD can’t keep climbing into a deflationary panic." " Halving cycles has been the most accurate prediction of IG:BITCOIN for over a decade." You're not abandoning your principles. You're just... trusting the depth of your research. This isn't a coin flip - you've done the macro work. You understand what's happening at a structural level. But sometimes, conviction blinds you to what price is screaming: the rules changed. When Fundamentals and Price Disagree Here's the hardest pill to swallow: You can have an airtight macro thesis and still get destroyed if the market is playing a different game than the one you're analyzing. I wasn't wrong to study the 2008 crisis parallels. I wasn't wrong to watch the unemployment-inflation death cross. I wasn't wrong to position for stress when the government shut down and economic data went dark. I wasn't even wrong about sovereign de-risking - that's actually happening. But I was wrong about what markets would do with that information. The markets didn’t ignore stress they front-ran the policy response. Assets aren't climbing despite the fundamentals - they're climbing because of what those fundamentals imply about the future of fiat currencies, monetary policy, and the global financial system. TVC:GOLD isn't rallying because everything's fine - it's rallying because sovereigns are losing faith in dollar hegemony IG:BITCOIN isn't breaking halving theory because technicals matter less - it's breaking them because institutional adoption is rewriting the cycle dynamics SP:SPX isn't ignoring the shutdown - it's pricing in that monetary policy remains accommodative no matter what happens I was positioned for crisis. The market was positioning for transformation. Same data, entirely different interpretation and timeline... When Knowing Isn't Enough Nothing I learned this week was new. I got reminded. Reminded that macro analysis tells you what might happen, not when or how markets will price it. Reminded that historical parallels inform probabilities but don't dictate outcomes - especially when structural forces are shifting. Reminded that when fundamentals say "crisis" but price action says "transformation," you don't fight price - you reassess your interpretation of the fundamentals. Reminded that the market doesn't humble you because you're ignorant. It humbles you because you forgot that being right about the problem doesn't mean being right about the solution markets will price in. The irony? The conviction that comes from deep macro research, from understanding sovereign behavior, from recognizing historical patterns - that same conviction blinds you to the moment you stop asking "What if markets are pricing this differently than 2008?" and start insisting "I know what's coming because I know what happened before." The Trading Pandemic, Revisited The trading pandemic isn’t when you’re lost. It’s when you’re certain - certain enough to ignore what price is saying. You stop asking “What if this time it’s different?” and start defending why it shouldn’t be. You stop respecting liquidity dynamics and start fighting them. And when you’re already drained personally or emotionally, that conviction turns to concrete. You don’t bend - you break. The Double-Edged Sword Here's the brutal truth: What makes us sophisticated traders - deep macro research, historical pattern recognition, fundamental analysis - is precisely what makes the storm hit us harder when markets reprice the narrative. The trader who randomly bought IG:BITCOIN , TVC:GOLD , and SP:SPX in September and held? They're up significantly. Not because they saw the shift - but because they had no thesis to be wrong about. But when you lose after being this prepared - after reading every indicator, watching every pattern - it shakes more than confidence. It shakes identity. Because if you can be this right on fundamentals and still be this wrong on timing, what does that say? It says the market just handed you a gift wrapped in pain: the reminder that understanding the fundamentals doesn't guarantee understanding how markets will discount those fundamentals. What the Market Reminded Me Not taught. Not showed. Reminded. That 2008 parallels matter less when the monetary system itself is being questioned That a macro death cross doesn’t guarantee a crash - it can precede a reflationary melt-up. That government shutdown + data blackout doesn't always trigger fear - it can mean "Fed will do whatever it takes" That Bitcoin breaking halving cycles isn't a bug - it might be the feature of institutional adoption That being unable to get updated economic data doesn't stop markets from pricing in what they expect that data to show That when fundamentals and price diverge, price is telling you your interpretation is early The Humbling Truth Maybe my macro thesis resolves later - markets realize the stress, panic ensues, and the correction comes. Maybe this controlled bull market across IG:BITCOIN , CAPITALCOM:GOLD , and equities is just a longer distribution phase before reality hits. Or maybe I'm watching the market tell me in real-time that we're not repricing a 2008-style crisis - we're repricing the end of dollar dominance, and I'm still trying to trade it like 2008. Either way, it doesn't matter right now. What matters is that I was positioned for my version of the story, and the market is writing its own. The government shut down October 1st. Data went dark. And instead of fear, markets priced in transformation. Instead of crisis, they priced in paradigm shift. I was trading the problem. They were trading the solution. Moving Forward The losses hurt not because I didn’t know better - but because I did. I knew that fundamentals don’t dictate timing. I knew liquidity rules all. But I trusted the thesis more than the tape. Maybe it all reverses. Maybe it doesn't. But my job isn't to insist on my macro thesis - it's to respect what's happening right now and position accordingly, even when it contradicts everything my research suggests should happen. The infinite game continues. The conviction that hurt me last week is the same conviction that's made me successful countless times before. I'm not trying to kill the macro analysis. I'm trying to keep it humble in the face of price action. Final Word The market only truly beats the trader who quits. But it tests the trader who stays by reminding them, again and again, that mastery isn't having the right macro thesis. It's respecting price action even when - especially when - it contradicts every fundamental you've studied. October 1st came. Government shut down. Data went dark. Death crosses formed. 2008 parallels aligned. Halving Cycle completed. And yet, here we are - breaking every rule the old playbook taught us. My thesis might still be right eventually. But "eventually" doesn't pay the bills, and it certainly doesn't save your account when you're positioned for a crisis and the market is pricing a transformation. This week was expensive tuition for a lesson I already knew: The market can remain irrational - or perhaps perfectly rational in a way you don't yet understand - longer than you can remain solvent betting against it. Rise, remember, and keep playing the infinite game. 💚
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by niclaxfx
31
Can it happen?Disclaimer This content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. The author is not a registered financial advisor. Trading and investing in financial markets involve substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified professional before making any investment decisions.
COMEX:GC1!
by AustrianTradingMachine
S&P500 Found the Support it needed for 6800.The S&P500 index (SPX) gave us an excellent bottom buy signal last week (September 30, see chart below), rebounding straight after and quickly hitting our 6720 Target: This time we focus on a much shorter term Channel Up pattern that has emerged, which has just given us another buy signal as it is currently bouncing on its 1H MA50 (blue trend-line). As long as the 1H MA100 (green trend-line) holds and the 1H RSI breaks above its Lower Highs trend-line, we expect the index to seek a new Higher High on the 2.0 Fibonacci extension at 6800. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
1
ES (S&P 500) Futures - Analyses, KeyZones, Setups Tue, (Oct 7)Context We’re sitting just under a shallow ceiling built around 6,785–6,805 after holding a higher-low near 6,766. Trend is still constructive on higher timeframes, but intraday momentum is chopping under that overhead band. Expect two-way trade early with directional follow-through only if one of the edges gives way. Session timing • NY AM window: 9:30–11:00 ET (primary) • Lunch manage-only: 12:00–13:00 ET • NY PM window: 13:30–16:00 ET (primary continuation/reversal window) Catalyst windows (be alert for volatility bursts) • 8:30 ET — morning data drop • ~10:00–11:00 ET — speaker risk window • 13:00 ET — rates/auction impact window Primary setups (Level-KZ style, 15m→5m→1m sequence) 1. Break-and-defend LONG (continuation) Trigger: 15m full-body close above 6,785–6,786 (R1). Execute: 5m pullback holds above 6,782 and re-closes up; 1m higher-low entry. Risk: Hard SL beyond the 15m trigger wick (±0.25–0.50). Targets: 6,797–6,805 (R2), then 6,820–6,835 (R3). If R3 converts to support, trail for 6,860–6,875 (R4). Idea: Turn the shelf into a floor and ride the expansion. 2. Quick-reclaim LONG (bounce) at S1/S2 Trigger: Liquidity sweep into 6,775–6,772 or 6,766–6,760, then a 15m close back above the level. Execute: 5m re-close up + 1m pop-and-go. Targets: First magnet 6,782–6,786; stretch 6,797–6,805. Notes: Works best in NY AM; avoid if we grind down into the level slowly. 3. Failure-to-defend SHORT (rotation down) Trigger: 15m body close below 6,775, then 5m lower-high under 6,775 that can’t reclaim. Execute: Sell the 1m pop-and-fail under the re-test. Targets: 6,766–6,760 → 6,742–6,735; leave a runner for 6,724–6,715 if momentum expands. Invalidation: Any 15m reclaim and hold back above 6,782 kills the idea. 4. Pop-and-fail SHORT at R3 (fade the cap) Trigger: First push into 6,820–6,835 stalls (upper wicks on 15m), then a 5m lower-high below the spike. Execute: 1m rejection entry with risk tucked above the wick. Targets: 6,805 → 6,785; runner for 6,766 if breadth flips risk-off. Notes: Don’t overstay; if buyers “walk it up” and print strong closes through 6,835, flip bias to continuation (Setup 1 extension). Price Roadmap for the Day So, here’s how to roll with today’s market. Path A — Range to Upside Break: First up, we want to stay above 6,775 early on. If we can turn 6,785 into dependable support, we're looking to push towards 6,797–6,805. If buyers defend that re-test, we might see a move up to 6,820–6,835. Control shifts to buyers when that range becomes support, and that opens up the possibility of hitting 6,860–6,875 later in the PM session. Path B — Failure from the Ceiling: Now, if we spike into 6,820–6,835 but can’t hold it, then a lower high under 6,805 could take control back to sellers. That sets us up for a drop to 6,785 and maybe even 6,766, with 6,742–6,735 acting like a “magnet pocket” if momentum kicks in. Path C — Data/Auction Shock: Keep an eye out for any sharp moves around 8:30 or 13:00 that blast through key levels. In these scenarios, wait for a 5-minute re-test to see if it holds (which means the trend continues) or fails (pointing to a potential reversal). Don’t chase that initial spike; let the market prove it can stick at the level first. Stay sharp!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
1
Day 45 — Trading Only S&P Futures | +$4,921 | Best Day YetDay 45 — one of my best days yet. After a big workout weekend, I came in with strong mental clarity. Right at 8:30, VX Algo flipped bullish, and I went long off the 9am MOB zone premarket. Got stop hunted right after the open, but risk was small, so I reloaded on the next setup — a 5-min MOB long with confirming buy signals — and that’s where the day took off. Lesson & Mindset The lesson today: preparation and mindset matter more than anything. When your body and mind are in sync, execution becomes automatic. News & Levels Headline: AMD and OpenAI spark a wild tech rally as S&P 500 hits another record. Tomorrow’s levels: Above 6765 stay bullish, below 6740 flip bearish.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
Will AMD recover and catch up with NVDA? updated/Revised Outlook🔸Hello traders, today let's review 2days/candle price chart for AMD. Price contained within bullish channel since 2021, however currently pullback/correction in progress. 🔸65% correction in progress, based on previous swings expected to complete at/near 88/90 USD in Q1 2025. Until then it's recommended to stay out. 🔸Once we bottom out near 90 USD in Q1 2025, expecting bullish swing 265% gains off the lows, so projected high is 310/320 USD. 🔸Recommended strategy bulls: Bulls wait for correction to complete at/near 85 usd in Q1 2025 and get ready to BUY/HOLD. Bullish impulse / reversal off the lows price target based on measured move projection is 310/320 USD. patience required, do not expect miracle/overnight gains in this market. good luck! 🎁Please hit the like button and 🎁Leave a comment to support our team! RISK DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss. Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by ProjectSyndicate
20
SPX: jobs delayed, but not the optimismThe key development in the U.S. last week was the federal government shutdown on October 1st, triggered by Congress’s failure to pass a funding bill. Markets had only a mild reaction to the news, and continued to be focused on broader economic development. Still, jobs data which were set for a release during the week, were not posted, due to the “shutdown”. Regardless, posted JOLTs Job Openings in august of 7,227M were slightly better from forecasted 7,2M expected by the market, which pushed the market optimism toward the increased expectations that the Fed might cut interest rates again this year. The S&P 500 marked another winning week, with a new all time highest level this year at 6.746. Tech companies continue to be in focus of market attention. Nvidia and other AI-adjacent firms continued to lead the rally, pushing the S&P 500 to fresh highs. Fair Isaac jumped around 18% after unveiling a plan to let lenders access its credit scores directly, hurting traditional credit bureaus like Equifax and TransUnion. On the opposite side was Palantir, which dropped by around 7,5% following security concerns in the U.S. Army memo. Investors perceive currently a mixed private-sector jobs data for September, as weak enough to support the Fed's decision to cut interest rates further at their forthcoming meeting as of the end of October. Based on these expectations, the S&P 500 might be further supported for new highs, as per investors sentiment.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
SPX × US10Y: A Signal for Market Tops and Economic Shifts1. Combining Equity Levels and Yield Sensitivity SPX (S&P 500) reflects equity market strength and investor sentiment. When SPX is rising, it typically indicates optimism or strong earnings growth expectations. US10Y (10-year Treasury yield) reflects the cost of capital and inflation expectations. Rising yields can signify tightening financial conditions or economic overheating. When you multiply these two metrics, the product magnifies the impact of simultaneous market exuberance (high SPX) and rising yields (high US10Y). A very high SPX × US10Y value could indicate a market environment where valuations are stretched, and higher yields are increasing the cost of capital—often a precursor to market corrections. 2. Historical Patterns In prior market tops, both equity valuations (SPX) and yields (US10Y) often peak together before significant corrections: Dot-Com Bubble (2000): SPX was highly elevated, and rising yields signaled an end to loose monetary conditions. 2007-2008 Financial Crisis: SPX was at record highs, and US10Y yields were climbing, reflecting tighter monetary policy. 2021-2022 Post-Pandemic: SPX hit record highs, and yields started to rise sharply as inflation surged, leading to a market correction. The SPX × US10Y value tends to peak during these moments, providing a warning signal of market excess. If you are using the SPX × US10Y (multiplication) instead of division, it can still serve as a market indicator, though the mechanics are slightly different. Here’s why the product of the S&P 500 and the 10-year Treasury yield (SPX × US10Y) might be relevant for predicting market tops: 3. Economic Logic Behind the Indicator A. Reflects Cost of Capital Rising US10Y yields increase the discount rate used to value stocks. High SPX × US10Y suggests equities are vulnerable to revaluation if yields continue to rise. B. Overheating Economy High SPX × US10Y often coincides with an overheating economy, where inflation pressures push yields higher, while equities are driven by optimism. This imbalance can quickly reverse if monetary tightening occurs. C. Peak Growth Phase A peak in the SPX × US10Y value might signal the economy is at the late stage of the business cycle, where growth slows, and equities face headwinds. 4. Why It May Predict Market Tops Valuation Excess: A high SPX × US10Y product reflects elevated valuations combined with tightening financial conditions. Transition to Risk-Off Environment: Rising yields make bonds more attractive relative to stocks, potentially triggering equity outflows. Fed Policy Influence: If yields are rising due to Federal Reserve tightening, equity markets often react negatively as borrowing costs rise and liquidity is withdrawn.
SP:SPX
by ILuminosity
ES (SPX, SPY) Weekly Game Plan (Oct 6–10)Big Picture Price is leaning into the 6,788–6,800 ceiling after a steady grind higher. Underneath, you’ve got stacked shelves: 6,778, 6,771/6,760, and 6,754. Lose that 6,754 floor and there’s an air pocket toward the 6,720s → 6,680s demand band. Expect rotations until the market either gets above 6,800 and sticks (trend-up week) or gets swatted back (rotate lower into value). Weekly Bias & Likely Paths Base case: Rotational around 6,788–6,800 until proven otherwise. Bull path: Get above 6,800 and stick → pit stops 6,818–6,825 (TP1) → 6,856–6,862 (TP2) → stretch 6,895–6,905. Bear path: Pop-and-fail at 6,800 → drift to 6,778 → 6,771/6,760 → 6,754. Trend-down only if we close below 6,754 and fail the check-back, opening the 6,720s → 6,680s window. Tomorrow’s Playbook — Level-KZ Protocol (15/5/1) (NY AM window 09:30–11:00 ET; PM window 13:30–16:00 ET. Two tries per level max.) Pop-and-Go LONG over 6,800 (Tier-1, full size) Trigger: 15m close above 6,800 → 5m holds 6,788–6,792 and re-closes up → 1m higher high to enter. Entry: 6,799–6,804 on the re-break. Stop: Below the 15m trigger wick −0.5. • Targets: TP1 6,818–6,825, TP2 6,856–6,862, TP3 6,895–6,905. Management: No partials before TP1. At TP1 take ~70%, set runner to BE, no trail until TP2. Time-stop 45–60m if flat. Pop-and-Fail SHORT at 6,788–6,800 (Tier-1, full size) Trigger: Wick above 6,800 that can’t stick → 15m close back under 6,788, 5m confirms down → 1m lower high to enter. Entry: 6,786–6,792. Stop: Above the rejection wick +0.5. • Targets: TP1 6,778, TP2 6,771.5–6,760.5, TP3 6,754 → 6,742. Note: If TP1 prints in <10m, take ~50%, consider re-adding on a 5m LH. Quick-Reclaim Bounce LONG at 6,758–6,754 (Tier-2, ¾ size) Trigger: Flush into 6,758–6,754 that snaps back → 15m close back over 6,760, 5m holds → 1m HL entry. Entry: 6,758–6,762. Stop: 6,749–6,752 (below the sweep low −0.5). • Targets: TP1 6,778, TP2 6,788, TP3 6,800. Continuation SHORT under 6,754 (Tier-1, full size) Trigger: 15m body under 6,754 plus a failed check-back into 6,754 on 5m. Entry: 6,751–6,754 on the failed retest. Stop: 6,762. • Targets: TP1 6,736–6,728, TP2 6,720–6,700, TP3 6,685–6,680. Price Action Road Map for NY Trading Session Opening Analysis: - We'll begin by monitoring if the price can hold above the 6,788 level. If it does, look for a push toward 6,800. If the price gets rejected at this level, we will shift our strategy to Scenario B. Bearish Scenario: - If the price slips below 6,760, anticipate a potential stop run targeting the 6,758 to 6,754 range. Response Strategies - If we observe a quick snap back from this region, be prepared to target the VWAP area, along with revisiting the 6,788 and 6,800 levels. - Should we fail to reclaim these higher levels, prepare for a move down towards the 6,720s and potentially the 6,680s. Afternoon Strategy: - In the afternoon session, if we establish a clear comfort zone during the morning, consider fading the extremes until we see a definitive 15-minute body break from this zone. Stay focused on these levels and remain adaptable to the market's behavior throughout the session. Good luck!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
1
A look at the MES1! (SPX)Chart Time Frame: 1 Hour Current Price: 6763 after setting recent ATH at 6800 Daily Candle: Top Heavy Doji with open / close entire in the body of previous candle. 📈 Price Action & Technical Analysis EMA 8 (thin cyan): ~6733 – Above price. Negative Slope. EMA 21 (med cyan): ~6775 – Above price and EMA 8. Negative Slope. Rotation zone created on 1H and lower TF (EMA 8 crossed EMA 21). Crossover has not happened on higher TF's at time of post. EMA 50 (thick cyan): ~6765 – Above current price; Flattening out. Structure: Bullish Trending since April lows. 📈 RSI (14 Close) Current: 43 (57 MA) Interpretation: Below neutral (50), momentum is weakening. 📈 MACD (12, 26, 9) MACD Line: 1; Signal Line: 4.2; Histogram: -3.2 Interpretation: MACD is growing bearish, histogram showing increasing intensity, yet still above 0. 🎯 Key Levels Support: various possible trend lines shown (Purple). Price action Monday will determine their validity. Swing low at 6681. Resistance: Overhead moving averages. ATH at 6800. 🧨 Volatility Outlook VIX - After a decline, showing signs of inflection. Currently trending upwards on the daily TF. Government shutdown and headline risk are of some concern to short term price action. Short Term: A sudden opening of the government could certainly cause a bullish event. I could also imagine certain headlines that would cause a short term bearish event. Longer term: govt shut downs have typically preceded bullish gains. 📈Macro/Fundamental Analysis Interpretation: We are in between earnings seasons and with a Gov shutdown, void of Gov Data. DXY - Pulled back significantly this year. I personally expect it to continue. This could provide a tail wind to equities pricing. 📆 Economic Calendar / Earnings Schedule Econ Calendar: Relatively Light Next Week Wednesday - 3PM EST - FOMC Minutes. Dot Plot could cause some action as the minutes are dissected. Friday - 10AM - Michigan Consumer Sentiment Report. A big miss (up or down) could cause some action. 🔍 Summary 🔻 Trend: Long bull run - might be getting stale; Might just be getting started. You decide. 🧩 Momentum: Very high on longer TFs, Turning down on the lower. 🧠 Tactics: Short Term - I love a 'rotation zone trade'. If price bounces back up into the EMA 21/8 spread zone, I would be looking for some day trade shorts.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by WillNixTrading