We are unveiling our finals paths based on the completion of waves 1 and 2 inside of our suspected final downturn for 2022. We believe we are in Sub-Millennial wave 1, Grand Supercycle wave 5, Supercycle wave 2, Cycle wave A, Primary wave 5, Intermediate wave 3, Minor wave 3, and believe we may have completed Minute wave 4 at the close on Friday. Our next steps...
Market participants are wondering right now if we are merely in a bear market rally or if this is the beginning of a new long-term bull run.
I thought I would write a post to share my thoughts.
First, the chart above: This is a weekly chart of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) with Fibonacci levels applied. I drew Fibonacci levels from the January high to the June low to...
US500 - Expiry in 24h - We look to Buy at 3676 (stop at 3602)
The medium term bias remains bearish.
The previous swing low is located at 3640.
Price action continues to gravitate towards crucial support levels with aggressive selling interest.
Support could prove difficult to breakdown.
We therefore, prefer to fade into the dip with a tight stop in...
Resistance is at 3725-30 now.
Maj support on closing level today is 3721SPX!
The price is below that number.
So if we close below (and Im looking for a rally back to 3730 and fail) then we could see my 3580 as early as Monday!
Next week supports are:
ES next stop is at 3666!
We are below all the possible support fib extensions,...
The FED Meeting on September 20-21 is expected to deliver 75bps hike.
The decision will be announced on September 21.
Some key data to consider:
The annual inflation rate in the US eased for a second straight month to 8.3% in August of 2022, from 8.5% in July, but above market forecasts of 8.1%.
Inflation rose for food (11.4%, the most since 1979), shelter (6.2%,...
Two months have delivered an average negative return for stocks since 1945: February and September, the latter being the worst.
Russia will not restart gas supplies to Europe through a key pipeline until western sanctions are lifted.
OPEC+ unexpectedly decided to cut output in October by 100,000 barrels a day.
August 2022 CPI data are scheduled...
This one will be quick
Its a weekly closing and I got both daily and weekly Major support at 3721-22SPX on closing level.
- S2 is at 3709
- 100% extension off Aug 16 and Sep 12th highs is at 3680SPX
We have Powell speaking at 2pm Eastern
My trading plan for tomorrow:
- currently short, both ES and NQ (ES entered at 3769.50, stop 10 points)
US500 - Intraday - We look to Sell at 3834 (stop at 3889)
The medium term bias remains bearish.
We can see no technical reason for a change of trend.
A firmer opening is expected to challenge bearish resolve. Resistance is located at 3840 and should cap gains to this area.
We look to sell rallies.
Our profit targets will be 3701 and 3680
...is highly unlikely.
The chart above shows the entire price history of the S&P 500. Each candle is a 6-month period. The channel that you see is a regression channel. It shows how far above or below the mean the stock market is at a given time.
At the close of 2021, the stock market hit the 2-sigma deviation from the mean. This is about as over-extended as...
Last week I said that SP500 is drawing a nasty picture and although we can have a rebound from the recent ascending trend line, this will not change the longer-term bearish perspective.
Indeed, we had this rebound and now the SP500 index is trading in a very strong sell zone that is set between 4100 and 4200.
In my opinion, a reversal to the downside will follow...
4 corrective waves succesfully done and now proceed to 5th wave. Probable targets are given on the chart. This was the most important part, the technical analysis . Neither global conditions (EU Energy crysis, war threats, inflation and covid rise), neither astrologic conditions (Jupiter retro will not leave 23 - 28th Oct) doesn' t allow a real bounce. And #dollar...
Throughout the years following the Great Recession, many market analysts have warned that the bull run was ending.
Here's one such article from 2016: www.yahoo.com
So naturally, an important question for traders is how to objectively detect whether or not the bull run has ended by using charts.
My chart above aims to do that by using statistical tools....
In the last few weeks, weird things are happening. We currently have a positive correlation between the S&P 500 and VIX, basically VIX grows with the S&P500 together.
I used 20 days correlation, currently it's around 0.8, and it's quite high.
Usually, you expect to see it around -1, and it makes sense.
For the last few years, the correlation was above 0 only a...
Here is last chance for the bulls to push into the close, levels to watch are 3802 and 3817 on closing level
I have set a buy order at 83 with a tight stop (if it gets there again, will be a good r/r imo)
Must close above 3786 at min for any bulls to have hope for another push to 3802-17 at min.
My thoughts are either we see 3710-21 tomorrow am...
I am marking the end of wave 2 with today's high post-Fed. Wave 2 retraced Wave 1's movement near 24% which was greater than the first quartile.
My models are pointing at wave 3 to now last 3-6 days. The historical quartile extensions are listed with waves ending in 533 being yellow and waves ending in 33 being light blue. My bottom for now is likely between...