Just look at that chart. The S&P 500 peaking around 3000. The pair is heading for this region again with a number of strong weeks behind it, climbing it's
way to the 3000 area once again. Price stalled at 2940 region, just shy of 3000 and is charging back towards it now to retest. I am anticipating the price to hit 3000 or very close, and around this level the...
Simple Moving Average analysis shows that it is time to short SP500 again. The end of last year gave us a comfortable bounce on the 1W MA200 and this week a rejection on the 1D MA200. By simple MA terms, that is a strong short signal. Targets: 2640 and 2555.
This is a cross factor comparison between the S&P500 and the Civilian Unemplyment Rate. The latter can be used as a benchmark to anticipate the long term cyclical behavior of SPX within its market cycles.
The conclusion is quite obvious. when the unemployment rate is low, a sell signal arises on SP500. When then unemployment rate is high, the index waves a buy...
The index is extending the very bullish medium term trade on the 1D Channel Up (RSI = 66.757, MACD = 33.440, Highs/Lows = 39.4506) having completely reversed the bearish bias of the recent correction since the December bottom. The next obvious target is the December 03 Gap fill (2,814). The sequence that is expected to be followed is of a similar fashion as that...
This is a straightforward macro study showing the performance of S&P against Gold.
We see that from 1980 to 1999/2000 S&P outperformed Gold, while from 2000 to 2011 Gold outperformed S&P. We are currently (since 2011) in a stage where S&P is again outperforming Gold and the uptrend may soon break higher in a parabolic move.
The conclusions drawn are that S&P is...
The index hit our previous target (2,670) making a slightly higher than expected Higher High at 2,677.75. This marginally extended the upper band of the 1D Channel Up (RSI = 59.375, MACD = 16.280, Highs/Lows = 32.7451), which remains overbought on STOCH and Williams. It is natural to expect a technical pull back either to touch the median (2,640) or to pric a...
The index has capitalized considerably on December's low, creating a strong 4H Channel Up (RSI = 57.058, MACD = 20.290, B/BP = 4.4419) which peaked yesterday at 2,596.75. Considering this a Higher High, we expect the price to pull back in order to set a new Higher Low, necessary to help the index reach even higher values. Although the technical estimates place the...
There are some things that I need to get off my chest.
In the three different types of market cycles, price action, breakouts, and indicators all act very differently from each other. One can know technical analysis, but if you cannot curtail your mindset, and indicators depending on market cycles then you will usually find yourself on the losing side. One...
I thought price would at least get to 258.3, but it appears to be running out of steam on this drive. We will see if it pushes up hard or falls below its agressive trendline supporting the price action from the last 2 trading days. We have a pretty clear channel at this point in purple. I would prefer that price surge higher now and exhaust itself maybe...
After dropping from the current bull market Trump announced that we were only but experiencing a glitch in the market, suggesting the bull market will continue. However I disagree with that idea, although I do admit that the sentiment has become more bullish on the recent days I still stand bearish on the market. My reasoning being that the market had been...
Daily Chart
1. Stochastics are in the same area and crossing as they had in SPY's previous drops. Both at the 280 Price level and the second drop started the big sell-off.
2. 21 Daily EMA (in Yellow) has been tested and possibly rejected (we must wait and see)
3. The light blue line is a very historic trendline gathered from connecting the hights in 2008 to...
Bearish Divergence on the 15 min chart. In a bull market, this is nothing. In a bear market, this is everything. Living below the 21 monthly MA means we are in a Bear Market (the 21 MA is at 263)
If the market surges for a higher high this divergence will be continued for a more clear short opportunity and more extreme divergence.
In my opinion, Price is...
Since the last update and comparison made on the similarities of S&P's candle sequences between the 2007 and 2018 Death Cross patterns, the index followed exactly the 2007 pattern, as it completed a nearly -15% decline and then rebounded. Based on the 2007 pattern this rebound shouldn't exceed +10% and our estimates put it around 2,575. This can be described as a...
So we got the bounce we were looking for, right in the 230 area that I had been talking about. So far so good. Let's see if we can get an idea as to where this market will top out for its final exhaustive push-up. Where would be an area where many people who got caught would love to take the loss for the peace of mind of not being in this market? Where will the...
We are aggressively approaching our 200 week moving averages. Throughout this bear market / crash I will be watching very closely certain key levels to close trades out and to allow the price to firm up and then re-enter shorts after whatever bounce has occurred. There is no way to know for sure that a bounce will happen at any given level but whenever you have...
