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T-BOND

Interest Rate Spikes Precede CorrectionsNotice the downward trend in the US10Y since the 80's, while government, corporate and consumer debt has exploded to all time highs. The achilles heel of massive debt levels are high interest rates, which end up causing slowed growth and economic contraction. With ever higher levels of debt, the level of interest required to put the economy in pain falls over time - thus why we see crashes and corrections even as the US10Y spikes to levels far below the historical average (~6.18%). Last year we popped above the "danger zone" trend line and we saw what happened. Watch out for interest rate spikes, it can save your ass.
SP:SPXEducation
by Derivati_Capital
3
BND Trendline Warns of Future DownsideBND bounced off a critical support corresponding to November 29th, 2007, the day that yields spiked after BND dropped and miraculously regained 7.5%. We see a downward trend forming in BND indicating a tendency toward rising rates while debts and deficits continue to set record highs. If the FED is not willing to significantly debase the dollar through record levels of monetary injection, the bond market will continue to drop. We are in the danger zone here, watching the bond market is crucial to timing the coming drop. I do not suggest going short until the following conditions are met: 1. Bond market drops considerably over any time frame (testing that critical level of pre-2008 crash or extreme velocity). 2. Stock market begins to face reality - depends on the velocity of rising rates (faster = sooner).
SP:SPXShort
by Derivati_Capital
1
If BND Ever Does This Again, Beware29th of November, 2007 - bond market experiences a flash crash which is quickly bought up by the FED in an effort to prevent widespread debt defaults. Worked for a few months only for companies to begin defaulting anyway, probably through a series of realized margin or interest spike risks. This is what caused the financial markets to implode in 2008. Watch and study the bond market, it can tell you more about medium to long-term market direction than any other indicator.
NASDAQ:BND
by Derivati_Capital
3
EURUSD Vs. Yields 10 - 5 years.High spreads between US10Y - DE10Y and US05Y - DE05Y, Can indicate some more downside risk for the euro. There is also some hidden divergence marked with green lines. European money is flowing into less riskier assets, as EU economic forecast have been slashed, while some banks are saying that the german economy is headed for a recession which is one of the largest economies in the EU. ECB´s ending of QE program have left the Central bank with less tools to stimulate the economy. A restart of the bond buying program will put questions on the politics taken from the CB and will place them in a situation where the market will think that they dont know what they are doing. If they choose to use some tools the only option they have is the "TLTRO" (Targeted longer-term refinancing operations) Which will give the banks some available liquidity to lend money out and push the economie for some growth. The risk of a possible recession in the EU can give some concerns if the CB will raise rates at Q4 2019. A slowdown in the Chinese economy will also affect the EU, as China is one of the biggest importer of the european products. At the same time IMF downgrades global economic growth, while U.S. economy also saw some downgrade of its growth forecast. I still see the U.S economy performing better than the European. Holding shorts on EURUSD - adding more at a break of 1.11060 with target at 1.0380 and 1.0600. Hedging from those levels and watching the price before going net long position. Break of these levels could result in a further move down to 0.9600. Closing of shorts, and entering long positions will be at 1.16700 with target of 1.21300
Short
by Fx-AlphaStrats
Gaps Gaps GapsLooking at Netflix Netflix has had some fomo over the last few causing price to gap. Gaps generally like to be filled in 92% of the time. Currently price is heading towards the 618 which tells me that people will be looking for shorts. My short zone highlighted in red is from the 786 to the 618. VPVR is showing a big notch around $225 which eventually price needs to fill in With price surging higher it is sending the indicators into over bought territory I will be looking for signals in the "Short zone" looking for M tops and bearish divergence to take profit. * Don't forget to hit that like button and follow me on Trading View for more chart analysis :)
NASDAQ:NFLX
by Cryptonite_trader
Gold shines with falling real yields This chart compares the real yield of 10 year Treasuries (bottom red) to XAUUSD (top). The real yield is the yield that a treasury buyer can expect to earn after inflation (nominal interest rate minus the inflation rate). At a glance there's visibly a strong negative correlation between real rates and the price of gold over time. Research by _Erb and Harvey showed a negative 82% correlation between real interest rates and gold prices from 1997 to 2012 (The Golden Dilemma). The real yield on long term treasuries was over 3% in 2000 and fell to a negative yield in 2012-2013. During this period of time the price of gold gained over 600%. And in reverse from 2012 the real yield increased approximately 1% to 2015, while the price of gold fell almost 40% during this time. Gold is relatively expensive when the real yield on treasuries is high, and relatively cheap when the real yield on treasuries is low. If an investor can gain a high real yield after inflation by holding a 'risk free' treasury, then the opportunity cost of holding gold is comparatively high. This makes gold relatively less attractive since gold pays neither dividend nor interest. Treasury investors lose money during negative interest rates (when inflation is greater than the nominal interest rate). This makes gold more attractive despite having no yield.
ULong
by dime
1
Flight to safety driving gold higher, yields lower and USD upAs the stock market starts to stumble, people look for safe places like Bonds, all those bond purchases drives the USD higher since you need to buy them in USD so it creates greater demand, this increase in USD would normally be bad for Gold. But Gold is actually going up right now since it is safe haven asset, that demand is off setting the negative effects of the USD, it has finally uncoupled the 2, the gold rally might finally be there.
TVC:DXY
by alexr451
10Y US/DE : Bond market distortion at historical bounderies...This is loooong term chart here, but the process in motion is a really dangerous one because it concerns the bond market that is supporting every bit of the investment process and credit liability throughout the market. This spread between german and US yielding is reaching long term dangerous levels of distortion and may lead to some credit troubles. Hope this idea will inspire some of you ! Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;) That's the best way to support me and help pushing this content to other users. Kindly, Phil
TVC:US10Y
by PRO_Indicators
1
Bund right above major support, prepare for a potential bounce! Bund is hovering really nicely above major support at 160.40 (Fibonacci extension, Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support) and a bounce could occur at this level. If price breaks through our descending resistance line, this would add much more conviction to the potential bounce up to 161.88 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance). RSI (34) also sees a descending resistance line holding price down really well. Only a break above this could trigger a corresponding bullish bounce in price. Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk. Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
OANDA:DE10YBEURLong
by Tickmill
ZBU2017 - September T-Bond Futures - Daily and Weekly ReviewDAILY - Double NR7 is making T-Bonds look like there is a shorterm top in place. Trend is still up. Price > 20 (155'01),50,100,200 DMA, with all but the 200 in a positive slope. Strong moving average convergence in the 154'24-155'02 area. Looking to buy a pullback. Long end has been strong with the flattening of the yield curve, this is the current macro trend, anything here should be seen as an adjustment in the curve and profit taking. WEEKLY - To the moon! Held the 200WkMA and have rallied nicely up from there. Above the 20WkMA as well. Also, the longterm RSI is above its moving average and crossed the 50 line with positive slope. First Resistance viewed at the 50/100WkMA area 158'08 and then the election drop point at 162'00. As in the daily, the macro economics of the flattening yield curve with even some pundits talking inverted should keep the trade in an up trend. As traders watch price action and keep an eye on the TLT as it has a projection point of 131 right now which would line up with the $ZB_F getting to the 160+ area.
CBOT:ZB1!Long
by KXRCapital